Pattern Not Encouraging for Some Time to Come

Great astronomy info in Mike's thread below, by the way.

The overall pattern for much of next week and the following week shows extensive troughiness for much of the central and eastern US, which will favor above normal precipitation and below normal temps. As previously mentioned, that doesn't mean every single day will be Wet & Chilly (oftentimes, approaching short waves bring brief warmups before they pass), but it does mean we're done with the 70s for the foreseeable future. Mother's Day precip as of this posting looks to be holding off until late in the day. This is the time of the year where "blocky" patterns are climatologically favored. If you're in the bad portion of the block, you're out of luck. Normally I wouldn't mention what the GFS shows too far out in mid-Spring. However, it's consistently showing upper level low pressure which would keep us Chilly and possibly Wet NEXT weekend. Most of this one, fortunately, will be dry--until Sunday night, when things go way down hill.

Star Gazers Bedazzled

Now that the winter shade of gray is breaking, there are numerous opportunities for our viewers to observe the heavens on clear nights.

The Ferguson Planetarium at Buffalo State College is offering a couple planetarium programs through the month of May. Learn about the spring nighttime sky in, “Nights of the Vernal Bloom”, Friday’s at 8:00 PM and Saturday’s at 3:00 PM. A second show, “Dawn of New Horizons” is a presentation on NASA’s space probe missions. That show
is scheduled on Friday’s at 9:00 PM and Saturday’s at 4:00 PM. Following the Saturday 4:00 PM show, telescopes will be set up to view the solar disk through June 12, 2008. For information call (716) 878-4911.

The Penn Dixie site in Blasdell offers a number of public viewings of the night sky during the year. One such program is scheduled for Saturday, May 17, 2008 beginning at 7:30 PM. Telescopes, with filters, will be available to view sunspots and solar flares before sunset. Mercury, Mars, Saturn and the Beehive Cluster M44 will be visible after sunset. More information is available at (716)627-4560 or on http://www.penndixie.org/ .

One of the best spots to take in the heavenly wonders in western New York, is at the Beaver Meadow Audubon Center located off Rt. 77 in North Java, where, because of the limited light pollution, you can view the planets and other features of the cosmos on the first and third Saturday of each month through September. The telescopes are provided through the generosity of the Buffalo Astronomical Association. Call (585)457-3238 for more information.

The Martz Observatory in Frewsburg, New York, just acquired a new 24” robotic telescope and occasionally offers public viewing nights. Look for such information on their web site at http://www.martzobservatory.com/ .

Our Canadian neighbors, the St. Catharines chapter of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada is holding a solar disk observation on Saturday, May 10 from 11:00 until 2:00 PM at the Fairview Mall in St. Catharines and in the evening, will host a “Solar System Walk”, at Firemen’s Park. Check out their web site for more at, http://www.astronomyniagara.com/ .

Of course most of these events are weather permitting, but WeatherWatch4 will take care of that part, with the very latest forecast 24-7.

1st Full Week of May to Offer Springlike Changes

First of all, the bumpy cloud pics to the right are not too often seen here in WNY. They're called Mammatus clouds, associated with the anvil cloud that extends from a decaying cumulonimbus (storm cloud). These were taken around sunset by Mike Schwab of Orchard Park after the storms rolled through Saturday evening. Cool shots, Mike!

As we head into the 1st full week of May, a noticeble springlike change will occur with temps rebounding into the 60s for much of the upcoming week after a chilly finish to the weekend. A ridge of high pressure will keep WNY dry with plenty of sunshine to start out on Monday. A clipper developing across the upper midwest will deliver the chance for a few hit or miss showers and isolated t-storms by Tuesday afternoon. More dry time moves in early Wednesday, but daytime heating could cause the atmosphere to destabilize, generating a few pop-up PM showers and t-storms. Local weather will likely turn even more active later Thursday into Friday as a more important spring storm lifting out of the central plains takes aim on the region, bringing widespread showers and t-storms. However, the track of this system is still uncertain, yet bears close watching.

Post Frontal Rainbow

These pictures were submitted courtesy of Barb from Medina.

It was a beautiful sight last night around 7pm in many parts WNY. I cannot make out a double rainbow from these pictures, but I know a lot of people reported a double rainbow closer to the Buffalo metro.

Improving Pattern after Saturday

An approaching cold front will set off more numerous Showers & Tshowers mainly later on Saturday and early Saturday evening. Drier and cooler weather will settle in for Sunday, with any light shwrs ending early, clouds thinning, and more sunshine returning for the afternoon. Saturday's tstorms are unlikely to produce severe weather. Since the instability ahead of the cold front will be surface-based, rather than elevated (in which there is little connection with the air near the surface), Lake Erie's chilly waters may weaken approaching convective cells to some extent. Upper level winds will also not be conducive to producing severe weather. The cooling behind the cold front will take Sunday's highs back to the mid 50s, which is not the kind of chill we had earlier this past week.

Cold Spell Won't Last Too Long...

but while it's here, it will still bring a threat to tender vegetation during the nightime hours. Of course, knowledgeable gardeners would presumably know better than to put out tender plants this soon. But many trees and plants are at an advanced state of blooming, and may face some limited damage potential. The amount of nightime cloudiness will make all the difference as to the threat of frost (no threat when it's overcast) and freezing. It does appears some srn tier/rural areas will face a freeze potential Tue and Wed nights. Temps will begin to moderate on Thursday and especially on Friday into the weekend, but a warm front to our south may produce a few showers. The weekend looks fairly mild but unsettled at this early point.

Sharp Cooldown Early Next Week?

The Tuesday operational GFS hinted strongly at a vigorous upper low bringing sharply cooler wx to WNY by next Tuesday. This model, however, was at odds with the European. In Wednesday's 12z run, this trend has solidified and WNY looks more likely to suffer a rude awakening for a couple of days next week. A vigorous low may bring a couple of rounds of showers & tshowers across the region on Monday, with a sped-up cold front likely to take temps down from the 60s into the 50s, along with gusty winds. But by Tuesday, we'll see highs in the 40s, with a few rain showers--and a few snowflakes may be seen in the hills. This unseasonable chill will last into Wednesday, before moderation returns by Thursday.

Only Minor Variations on a Theme....

The warmth will continue largely unabated this week, with a cooler pattern change likely holding off until later Saturday or Saturday night. A weak cool front will cross the region Wednesday, but moisture and dynamics to make showers will be sparse. A better chance for Shwrs & Tshwrs will arrive by Saturday, with the approach of a slow-moving cold front. After that front fights its way through, significantly cooler conditions will arrive for a few days.

After a Saturday Peak...

the cooling which follows will be minor. On this Friday evening, signs still point to a record high being likely on Saturday with a SE downslope wind. It will be locally cooler along the Lk Ontario shore. On Sunday, an upper level low will drift slowly by to our south. Moisture and dynamics will be marginal, so we may see a few spotty showers, more likely closer to PA. Temps will be somewhat cooler, but remain above average into next Saturday. The operational GFS still points to a pattern change developing during next weekend, taking us back to an unsettled, chillier regime.

Warmup Looks More Impressive

A dry workweek, starting out chilly but becoming truly springlike on Wednesday. The typical cooling closer to Lk Erie & the Niag Rvr, however, will hold metro area, Grand Island, wrn Niag & NW Erie Co high temps back with a SW flow to the 50s on Wed & Thur. As you move further inland, afternoon temps will reach the mid/upper 60s on Wed, and some spots will make it into the 70s on Thursday. A backdoor cold front will allow temps to cool a little for next weekend.

Not Much of a Weekend.

The cool backwash circulation behind our slow moving storm system will leave us with spotty lighter shwrs on Saturday, and slowly falling temps, with a noticeable wind chill. Later Saturday night, these spotty shwrs will begin to mix with and change over to a bit of snow, especially toward morning, as temps drop to 30-34. Lt snow shwrs Sunday AM will shift south and dissipate, leaving us with a Breezy & Cold day. However, skies may brighten just a bit from the metro area northward in the afternoon. More Sun returns Monday, but it will still be rather Cool. Plenty sun arrives for Tue-Wed, with gradually moderating temps.

Friday Severe Weather Threat

SPC now has all WNY at Slight Risk for Severe Tstorms on Friday. Conditions will become more favorable for supercells, but low level wind shear could contribute to a few brief tornadoes. However, straightline winds look to be the principle threat, not tornadoes.

Spring Has Sprung, But Significant Pattern Change Coming

Western New York continues with a somewhat lengthy spring like stretch going into the new week. Mild to warm, dry weather will persist through Tuesday as a disturbance approaching from the western Great Lakes washes out. Temps stay above average through the majority of the week...highs in the 50s/60s. The next chance of rain arrives Wednesday with a few scattered rain showers. A stronger cold front moves in Friday with periods of rain and sharply colder air diving in Saturday and Sunday. Temps next weekend will drop through the 40s along with the chance of a rain/snow mix. Do not be discouraged though, this next chilly pattern will be relatively short-lived, only lasting a few days before spring weather returns from a short hiatus.

Have We Turned the Corner?

Mostly--for awhile. Temperatures will be running above average most days next week, and after Thursday's spectacular afternoon, that's welcome news. An upper level ridge will dominate in the east much of next week. However, the GFS operational model continues to show a vigorous storm system racing by at the end of next week, which would allow a return to chillier conditions for next weekend. In the nearterm, Friday will be cooler largely due to cloud cover and occasional light rain. Saturday will probably get off to a slow start with low clouds and possible drizzle and fog early in the day, but sinking air from a weak ridge should "squish" the clouds by midday, giving way to a very nice afternoon, and a spectacular Sunday.

From 60s to 20s....

As winds slowly subside, temps will be dropping to the mid/upper 20s (from the AM high of 62) by Wed dawn--with a little graupel and a few lt snow shwrs overnight. Wed will be bright & cool, with a bit of a wind chill, but temps will moderate back into the 50s on Thursday. A storm pulling up toward the Ohio Valley will bring periods of rain into WNY before Friday AM and into Friday. It currently appears the weekend will be mainly dry, with temperatures moderating back up on Sunday into a somewhat unsettled pattern early next week--although it will be seasonably mild. The peak gust at the NWS today was 47 mph, but the WeatherWatch 4 Neighborhood WeatherNet sites registered gusts to over 50 mph at quite a few locations in Niagara, Orleans, and Genesee counties, with the lightest winds to the SE of the metro area.

This was an Advisory--not a High Wind--event, with little in the way of damage. As we've pointed out many times, High Winds by meteorological standards produce widespread property damage.