And Then There's Sunday/Monday....
At the time of this posting (Tuesday evening), it appears that an area of low pressure will pull out of the southern plains and bring us a moist SE flow on Sunday. If it follows this early indicated path, precip could begin as a little snow, then turn to sleet & light freezing rain, and probably to all rain later on Sunday. But once this storm passes off to our NE by early Monday, it may deepen explosively and produce a high wind situation with snow showers and blowing snow worsening during Monday. Right now, those lower level winds are slated to be westerly, then northwesterly, which would keep the heaviest lake snow south of the metro area. This far in advance, that's a close call. But if model trends continue as they are, this will be a major storm for the interior of the NE, and would have a significant effect on our viewing area -- with winds likely even stronger than they were today. As always, I'll keep you updated.
posted by Don Paul at
9:46 PM
24 Comments:
I guess u have a tough forecast don
wish u good luck for ur next storm forecast
What direction and wind speed will we have around 1100 hours tomorrow?
Which day later this week will have the strongest S, SW, WSW winds?
Correction to last question:
What direction and wind speed will we have around 1100 hours today?
Hope this forecast is as good as the one yesterday about the winter weather advisory which turned out to be a dud.
Winds should be light, out of the east today at 11, under 10mph.
I love 4. You guys rule. I live in SW McKean County in Kane and I was just wondering how much snow to expect from this next storm.
Not too much for you, billywayne. While there will be a burst of rain and snow showers with the passage of the cold front tomorrow AM, much of the rest of the snow will be channeled lake effect, missing you.
Lake effect will develop during the afternoon tomorrow, and boundary layer winds should keep most of it in ski country, though some could clip Orchard Park & East Aurora. The strengthening winds tomorrow will cause considerable blowing and drifting in Ski Country, with near whiteout conditions likely on N/S roads by late afternoon. A model called BUFKIT brings more stability back to the atmosphere later in the evening, so the lake snow may weaken a bit overnight. Now, it appears winds will back to a more SW orientation for Friday, but lake snow will be weaker both due to drier air and some warming at about 3-5000 ft. One model actually backs the winds all the way to about 210 degrees, which would bring weak lake snow to wrn Niag. Co, Grand Island, and the Niag Peninsula, before another cold front goes by and winds veer to NW Friday night and Saturday, w/sct snow shwrs & less organized lake snow.
By late Saturday night, snow or snow and sleet will develop. The projected path for this next storm system brings us to mixed precip and then rain, before a sharp cold front crosses the region very early Monday. In the wake of this storm's passage will come very strong WNW winds with snow shwrs, some heavier lake snow well away from Buffalo, and poor visibilities. More tonight.
If this forecast is as good as yesterdays, it will all rain. National Weather Service needs more goodies and then they wouldn't get it right.
I'm not gonna make any assumptions yet, cuz every1 is saying something different. I swear if it rains I might cry we're overdue for a real big storm and i think theres some potential sunday into monday. just think if the winds were stronger than they were yesterday and if we get snow it could easily be a blizzard if the path gives us the heavier snow. I mean by next week i thought there would be enough cold air to sustain all snow but now some are saying it could be a period of freezing rain and sleet and changing to boring stupid unfun rain for a while. better b wrong, cuz if its all snow, imagine how much we would get. what are the chances of a real crippling storm, also, don? would 50 miles make or break what we get for this time around?
Shaka Don. I'm just comparing all the forecasts for the wind.
Looks like good conditions for us frigid wave riders.
One more thing at this time of year only experienced and properly geared up wave riders should be out. Yesterday a kayaker died in Lake Ontario in Grimsby. This has never happened around this part of the lakes in my life time.
Today we got a last chance to clean up the leaves. The leaves fell late this season. How about a reminder to the public to bag the leaves and not dump them in our streets. Be a good neighbor. Keep our streets clean for the plows and keep the leaves out of the sewer grates. Thanks for your response. Thanks for always posting up the wind intensity in your reports.
Don is there any heavy LES potential in the wake of mondays storm? Can heavy lake effect form in such strong winds? I would think winds of that magnitude would tend to tear apart the lake effect bands.
Mike--you're right. Winds that strong do tend to keep the moisture from converging into an organized band. Currently, Monday's flow looks to be mainly westerly or WNW, so if any organized bands do form, at this point they look to be well south of the City again.
Is there any possibility that the wind direction could change and the metro area get some snow.
Any revelations with the models two weeks out
Jack
Don, I know you mentioned the possibility of some lake effect developing south of the city due to a reinforcing cold westerly flow, associated with Monday's storm. You also mentioned that we could be dealing with some pretty heavy winds. My question is: what do the most reliable models suggest with the track of Monday's storm system does it appear at this point that we would be getting light, moderate, or significant accumulation of the non-lakeffect variety?
Hmm , It really looks to be some people want to get some/alot of snow.
I would like to thank wivb for setting up this blog it is great so far it is nice to see our weather dude(ettes) posting here..
jackfrost: Still no signs of major snow for the metro area. A minor brush on Friday, and snow showers on Monday. The pattern will remain cold through most of next week; maybe a little moderation Fri/Sat, and then possibly colder again by the 10th-13th. But as for placing lake snow with quick moving disturbances far in advance, it's seldom doable. One exception was in the week prior to Christmas week of 2001, when we could see clearly a very cold mostly southwesterly flow setting up for the majority of the time for that week. That's not the case this time around.
We could get something next week, but it's not showing up in the models right now.
As for Monday's storm, the boundary layer winds look a little less ferocious in the early evening models. Very windy, but not a true High Wind (several hours of sustained 40+ mph winds, or peak gusts over 58 mph) event. The flow will be northwesterly, so lake effect will not be a major issue in the metro area. There will be multiple bands away from Buffalo with modest accum possible, and Sct Snow Shwrs in the large scale flow around the region, with or without lake effect.
Glad you folks are still enjoying the Buffalo Weather Blog--so are we!
2nd thought: there could be a period of lake snow near the metro area during Monday AM, before winds veer to more WNW.
The Sunday/Monday storm is definitely looking less potent for Monday. Its adjusted path and intensity in 2 models suggest gusty winds and snow showers for Monday, with some limited lake effect potential, but the boundary lyr should become predominantly northwesterly as the day goes along, set us up for multiple bands, continuing into Tuesday. Windspeeds look less impressive than earlier runs yesterday.
The waves breaking over Route 5 are amazing but so are the views from LaSalle Park (on the West Side) of the waves hitting the breakwalls there. It's the best place in Buffalo to observe the weather coming off Lake Erie.
The waves are always blown out along Rt 5 in Hamburg.
Suggestion a Lake Erie web camera on top of General Mills pointed at Lake Erie.
Pretty calm for metro Buffalo right on through Sat. Night. Just cold with a chilly breeze. Right now there calling for Snow to begin falling after midnight Sat. Possibly falling heavy at times. Some significant accumulations are possible by Sunday morning . Its then forcasted to changed over to Sleet/Freezing rain. Then over to all rain Sunday afternoon. With the track of the storm just to our west, leaving us in the warm sector, and southerly breeze. There is enough cold air coming in from Canada to keep us in the form of snow Sat. night to sunday timeframe. Could be interesting. With moderate winds, and heavy snow. Could get some power outages, bad road conditions. Then it cools off again Sunday night. With possibly some lake effect setting up for a few hours monday morning on a southwest flow. That could be interesting. Then it all swings back down to ski country, monday-tuesday. Then a clipper comes by tuesday night and wednesday and swings it back up to the metro. Sounds about right Don? Tell me if im wrong or missed anything.
Thanks!
There will be a closed low pressure system going by to our south on Wednesday, bringing light snow (general, not lake effect). I don't see a SW flow showing up Sunday night after the cold front goes through, but that doesn't mean a secondary trough couldn't show up in the data to cause that in tomorrow's runs. It's just not there now. There's a small chance of significant synoptic snow in the predawn hours of Sunday, but I'm leaning toward just a few inches before there's a change to sleet, then freezing rain. The real question will be how long the surface stays subfreezing Sunday morning before we go over to rain. In most cases, the changeover in the metro area occurs fairly rapidly with strong warming aloft, but valleys to the SE and areas toward Rochester could keep the frz rain a little longer. It looks like a gusty NW flow for Monday, with Sct Snow Shwrs and multiple bands of lake snow off all 3 lakes--which leaves the metro area out of any heavy accum. Best chance for heavier amounts will be Chau/Catt cos. As I posted Wednesday night, despite what the Climate Prediction Ctr was still saying today (High Winds), I don't think we'll meet high wind criteria. More likely in the 25-40+ range.
Don,
I have read the blogs of several national mets., and have noticed them repeatedly questioning...
...whether the storm will emerge from the SW weaker than projected.
...whether the cold air, which they claim models do not handle well, will stay in place during such a weakened storm.
...whether the energy will shift from a Great Lakes Low to a newly emerged one off the East Coast
Any thoughts on this? How would such variables change the forecast for our area?
Appreciate your input-Matt
Matt,
If you scroll up a little on these comments, you'll see that's what I wrote last night. 2 days ago, this looked to be an Ontario-Quebec monster which could have brought 60 mph winds. By last night, though, the system appeared somewhat weaker, and with a secondary development at coast, backlash winds on Monday--while quite gusty--look less ominous. So, yes, I agree with what you've read elsewhere. There are still questions as to how long the deeper cold air will stay in place in the Sunday predawn hours to allow all snow (right now I see a few inches accumulating quickly before a change to sleet, then frz rain, then rain).
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home