Below Normal Snowfall
As of Thanksgiving, our Buffalo snowfall is at just 2.6", which is below the normal 6.9" for the season to this date. We're still seeing early hints in an extended range outlook of a possible wintry pattern change closer to December 5th, but it's too early to tell if that's going to be another quick shot of cold, or signal the effect of a Cold/Negative Phase NAO (see other threads) setting up over the North Atlantic. If this trend continues in this particular model over the next few days, it MIGHT signal one of the colder patterns I predicted to occur, interrupting what's still likely to be a Milder Than Average winter. If such an NAO shift develops, that could bring a few weeks of more wintry weather to the NE and NW Europe.
Still, it's strictly an IF at this point....
Still, it's strictly an IF at this point....
posted by Don Paul at
11:03 PM
44 Comments:
Happy "Day After" Thanksgiving to Don and Company! Love this new blog! I was wondering, what is the "NAO" that you refer to. I hope you didn't explain that in another post I may have missed. I also wanted to commend Mary Beth and Lindsay for their enthusiastic participation in the blog. The three of you really do a great job of keeping things up-to-date and answer everyone's questions. Now, a quick question: Where is Mike Cejka in all this? Haven't seen a single thought or response to previous questions and posts. It would be great to see what Mike has to add to this site! C'mon Mike... jump into the pool, the water is fine!
Keep up the great work Don!
Bob
Hi Bob,
Yes, I covered the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in another post on the blog, albeit briefly. It's a shifting of upper air barometric pressure patterns which affect the positioning of prevailing high and low pressure systems. When this oscillation is in its Negative/Cold phase, the positioning of a high near Greenland tends to force the polar jetstream over North America to take a dive south thru the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, allowing arctic air to flood these regions, and sometimes making conditions for coastal storms to form more favorable. Essentially, the opposite occurs when the NAO is in its Positive/Warm phase. There's also another oscillating pattern called the Arctic Oscillation (AO) which can help cause these pattern shifts as well.
The interaction between the ocean surface and atmosphere above it has an enormous impact on how the polar and subtropical jetstreams around the world are going to align. Sea surface temperatures (down to about 10 meters)are very important. El Nino, for example, causes worldwide pattern changes, when warmer than average sea surface temperatures migrate from the western tropical Pacific to the eastern tropical Pacific.
It's a tangled web nature weaves, Bob. I'm really glad to read how much you and others are enjoying this blog--we are too!
Hey Bob...
NAO stands for "North Atlantic Oscillation." Don did go into some explanation of what it is and how it will affect our weather in a post entitled: "A Strengthening La Nina Means an easier Winter?" on Nov. 16. When the NAO is negative it is usually synonymous with colder temperatures and more Wintry conditions. Conversely, if the NAO is positive we usually experience warmer temperatures. (Also, Winter storms usually take a more northerly track when the NAO is positive.) The NAO is a good predictor of Winter climate for the Eastern United States, Europe & Northern Asia.
BTW Don just beat me to the explanation by a few mins! :)
Thanks for jumping in, Lindsay.
One other feature about the NAO; it changes its phase with much less advance notice and more often than the El Nino/La Nino oscillation in the Pacific. The NAO can shift to its cold phase with just about 2 weeks notice and then stay in the phase for only 2-4 weeks. El Nino and La Nina tend to develop for months at a time.
The British Meteorological Office is trying to make the NAO more predictable through studying North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in May, and then forecasting whether the NAO will be predominantly Negative, Postive, or Neutral for the following winter. They've had modest but measurable success with this statistical method, and predicted the NAO to be more neutral, or changeable, this winter than last.
Mr.Paul, Just wanted to inform you since mother nature isn't giving me snow im making my own. Check it out (http://snowguns.com/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/6351051482/m/6731023954)
, Im up on cole rd in OP. Just wanted to know some more information on this changing weather pattern starting friday next week? Hopefully long enough to open some ski hills? Thanks
Wow. Don and Lindsay you folks are the best! Thanks for the explanation of "NAO". Honestly, I don't know how you folks keep track of all that information... but thank goodness you do! I really appreciate how you folks and Mary Beth all seem to jump right on the questions and provide easy to understand answers. Thanks for all your hard work.
Bob
Hi Don. I'm curious, why do so many trees still have their leaves this late into the season? It seems like we should have had enough cold days and nights already for the trees to shed their leaves.
Lancaster Lenny
By the way, hope you had a Happy Thanksgiving!
Is anyone really sad that we are below average on the snowfall?? I love a White Christmas but the longer the white stuff holds off the better!!!
Happy Thanksgiving to you and the Weather crew Don.
My family and I have watched you for many, many years and above all others you are the best Buffalo has in terms of weather forcasting!
Thanks!
Peter
Thank you, Bob. In any science, if you don't keep up, you get left in the dust. I never heard of the NAO when I was in college, so there's a lot of OJT involved in being a meteorologist (even more so, where the stakes are higher, for MDs like Peter Ostrow--who does actual research for UB and at Buffalo General). Our newest member, Lindsay, was an honors graduate at Penn State (the largest and perhaps the most highly prestigious meteorology program of any US university)so she brings a lot to the table, too.
Most meteorologists who are actively involved in forecasting have an inborn passion for the work, which starts at a very early age. It could be a love of snowstorms, or thunderstorms, but most mets I know besides the 4 of us here, as well as the excellent staff at the NWS Buffalo Forecast Office, still get excited about the work. But it IS painful to blow a forecast--make no mistake about it!
Lancaster Lenny, my guess is there's a connection with the unsually dry summer and early/mid autumn period. But you'd probably have to talk to a horticulturalist like Sally Cunningham, or the Cornell Cooperative Extension Service to get an authoritative answer.
To Peter from Lancaster: thanks so much for your very kind words. You might be surprised how many snow lovers there are out there who are chafing at the bit for a big snow. It may not be rational, but it's "out there." Snow loving, that is....
On this Friday evening, an extended range model from the NWS in Washington (the GFS--Global Forecast System) is still pointing to a more fundamental pattern change to truly wintry temperatures, possibly beginning around the 2nd of December and deepening for a few days at least. These hints first showed up days ago and continue to appear in varying form in this model which runs every 6 hours.
The signals on the NAO show a trend toward a more negative phase, but it's unclear whether or not this is going to be a "sea change" to a truly negative NAO which would last several weeks, or whether it will just a shot which lasts a few days.
The pattern in the GFS suggests a more dominant NW flow near the surface with this cold outbreak, which would not favor much lake snow near the metro area. However, the GFS does NOT have the resolution so far out in time to truly define the direction of these low level winds. Smaller disturbances in the upper level winds could still cause the winds to back to a SW orientation from time to time during this upcoming cold period.
Hey Thanks for update. Im hoping the cold weather sticks around next week for awhile. I need to ski soon or I may have to move to Vermont. Keep up the good work and mention the potiental of cold weather/Snow for us skiers on air. It keeps us looking positive! Thanks again.
Sorry to hear your not with the family for the holiday, Lindsay. You must really love your job, indeed!
This cold air definatly seems unprecedented for November. Looking at Env. Canada's extended range another cold blast will invade the prarie's mid-week so looks like no long term relief for us. One way of forecasting our next week I find is looking at the forecast for Whitehourse, Yukon Territores. They will be hovering just under freezing. Not sure why but when there is Pacific air there, it almost invariably means Arctic air for this area, not sure why though...But I recommend you add that to one of your forecasting tools. When we see the Yukon plunge back to the single digits, we can expect a warm up.
snowfanaticmatt: The last line in my post referred to this pattern change as being "strictly an IF." Today and this evening's model runs of the GFS Extended Range model now make it much less of an IF. In fact, after I posted my last comment, I checked out the Buffalo NWS Area Forecast Discussion, and Meteorologist Bob Hamilton--their Long Range Outlook specialist--is thinking the same thing, and has a nice section on this currently in the Long Range Discussion. Glad we're thinking alike, because Bob is Really Good at Pattern Recognition.
As I wrote, it's still way too early to tell about snow potential from the skies, but you can bet there will be time for the snow making equipment to start gunning the slopes.
We'll keep you and every viewer informed on this pattern change throughout the upcoming week.
Hi Don and WIVB weather folks,
I love this blog--Historically speaking what about the late fall of 1989
Jack
Paul:
I have one possible explanation for why the temperatures in the Yukon and Northwestern Territories can be used as a forecasting tool for WNY & the NE. As you said, if warmer temperatures are persisting in the NW Territories it is possible (not definite) that a colder air mass is over WNY in the current but could spell a warm up for WNY in a few days. This holds true if the jet stream has a meridional pattern. (A wavy pattern...for example a huge ridge of High pressure out west and trough of Low presssure over the east.) This is not necessarily the case when the jet stream acquires a more zonal pattern. (fast E/W flow aloft) The jet stream is an area of faster winds located between 200 & 300 mb in the atmosphere (about 35,000ft.) It usually acts as a boundary between differing air masses. (Air masses with differing temperatures or properties.) For instance, the jet stream usually marks the boundary between the troposhere (where you live and where temps on AVG decrease with height) and the stratosphere (where temps increase with height.) Upper level winds are important to keep in mind because many times they act as the steering mechanisms of weather systems. I think the reason why the temps in the NW Territories can SOMETIMES indicate what we'll see in the NE a few days down the road is because the jet stream slowly propagates eastward (but not as fast as the winds) and that ridge with the warmer temperatures that is over the NW Territories today will eventually propagate over the NE a few days down the line.
Yes, that's true but I find most of the time the flow is not zonal, it's either an upper high in the far west, and bad weather for us with an upper low; or an upper high around us; and the reverse for the west. So when places like Whitehorse plunges, it indicates the pattern will shift here soon, back to an upper high. Overall though we get rooked for our latittude level. Most people don't know it's the same as the south of France.
Did the lake snows materialize? Of course no snow here in TO with the SW winds. I guess WNY can partake in some snow fun too now..
Paul:
Another thing that be a good indicator in terms looking at the NW Territories temperatures and forecasting temps down the road for the NE is the PNA. Here is a website that shows the PNA treds over the past few months... http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna_index_mrf.shtml
It indicates that the PNA has been positive since November 1st. Positive PNA is synonymous with a Ridge or warmer temps in the NW, which forces colder air from Canada down toward the NE USA.
hey don paul................
this past days models are hinting on a major cold after next week and the temps will be in the single digits and teens and the gfs model is showing a major snowstorm during 5th december so whats ur opinion about this upcoming weather pattern
BTW We got about a dusting to an inch of snow in the metro this AM!
This post has been removed by the author.
ayud,
You can't depend on a model like the GFS so far in advance to predict "a storm on the 5th." It's useful for pattern changes on a large scale, but at the range in time it lacks the resolution--or detail--to be used for individual storm systems.
As I posted last evening, it is becoming more likely that a true wintry outbreak is setting up for Great Lakes, Ohio Valley & mid-South around the beginning of December. If this outbreak persists, it will cool Lake Erie down in a hurry, of course, which could affect snow potential later in December and January.
Even though I'm "off duty" today, I couldn't resist looking at the last run of the GFS from this morning. In the extended range, there appears to be a fairly impressive cold outbreak in the wake of a northern latitude storm system on Thursday, and there is some potential for lake effect snow meandering across WNY late in the week.
The time period following next weekend looks to be very cold, but not as frigid as last evening's run. That run showed the coldest pattern of all, in which "cross polar" flow would deliver Siberian air across the arctic into Canada and the U.S. Today's run does not show any well-defined cross polar connection. Bottom line: it will be getting wintry for at least 5-7 days, but maybe not so extreme in temperatures as indicated yesterday. As per usual, there can be relative flip-flops in details over the next several days, but I have little doubt our temperatures will be running well below normal in that time period.
Hey LS:
Got as far as this:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink..when I add the pna it gives me a forbidden warning. I guess Canucks like me are locked out..Do you know how to navigate to it from the monitoring weather & climate page?
I guess i'll come out now and say that's good for me with my vacay starting Dec 2. The weather is actually getting warmer and drier in the Cancun area. It figures as the warmer and drier air normally over texas will be displaced down there and the more humid showery weather should be displaced even further south..
Hi weather folks on 4,
Of course there won't be much snow this year.....I just bought a new snowblower. This works the same way I control the rainy days around my washing our cars or not.
Enjoying another Sabres game just now, Goodnight,
Jack in Hamburg
just checking the 18z gfs run and it still showing the cold air coming in and a possible snowstorm in december 5
Hay, Jack:
Be careful what you wish for...Never say never! ...and Go Sabres!
Ayuud:
Regarding today's 18z GFS, what's even more interesting is the period from 12/2 through 12/4 with wintry mix changing to snow..decent trough and upward lift. Cold air is pretty deep in this run. Lake Effect could be a big player, too. Disturbance you mentioned the night of the 5th has cold air, but not as deep as earlier in the week..still may get something out of it. Go figure, by the 10th, GFS shows another strong warming trend. Of course, this is just one run, and it will probably flip flop a few times as Don blogged about in previous posts.
hey mery beth wrobel............
last night 18z gfs was showing the storm around 5th december and it
was mixed precip but the 6z run shows a mainly snowstorm and the temps forecasted at that time of period is 29-32 so it will support snow and the cold shot doesnt look as impressive as the other runs
so will u say anything about this pattern change in the air
Paul:
Here's houw you access that PNA info from the CPC homepage. The homepage can be found at http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/. Then on the left hand side of the screen under "Climate-Weather" you can find info on the AAO, AO, NAO and PNA...click on that link. There you can look at the Ensemble Mean Outlooks and GFS Outlooks. Hope this helps!
Yes it does! Looks like the PNA is positive going into Dec.
Thanks Lindsay.
ayud,
Glad you're contributing.
I don't think you got my earlier point. On November 25th, NO experienced meteorologist would rely on model output to predict a storm on the 5th. There is far too much chaos and lack of resolution in a model to do that. At this point, just look at overall patterns. Give it a few days, and then we may have something.
Simply put: It isn't done, and that's because it almost never works.
I wish the opposite were true, because it would make our jobs lots easier.
Ayuud:
Yes, indeed, I concur with Don...the long range models are better with showing weather trends, rather than pinpointing exact timing of storms and disturbances.
hey Mary Beth Wrobel
im glad that u mentioned early next week storm in your forecast
hey i dont want to sound stupid but can the metro area get lake effect snow in wsw wind and could u list the wind directions in a lake effect event and the area that it impacts
example: nw winds impacts the southern tier..................
Speaking of Lake Effect forecasts, I must really commend your weather team for using consistent terminology when describing snow forecasts (i.e. Southern Tier, Ski Country, Southtowns). Nothing is more maddening than having a "weathercaster" loosely describe Ellicottville as the Southtowns!
I don't get that error I occasionally hear myself, especially when it comes from someone who grew up here.
When I moved here in 1984, then Meteorologist-in-Charge of the Buffalo NWS Don Wuerch explained to me what geographic terminology was used in their zone forecasts, and Mike and I decided it was a good idea to match up with that terminology to limit confusion. I conjured up the phrase "Ski Country" a few years later to try and differentiate from the more densely populated Buffalo Southtowns from the more rural portions of southern Erie County, as well as the southern tier. Of course, even that term can create some confusion (does he mean KB or Holiday Valley???) but, of course, you're right. Jamestown and Ellicottville are not Southtowns, and the people who live there don't think of them that way either.
As regional, smaller scale computer models have become more reliable and precise in placement of precipitation on this smaller scale (called mesoscale), it's been possible for us to use more precise geographic terminology in our WeatherWatch 4Casts. But on days when I blew it, I sometimes wish for the vague, good ol' days when "south of the City" was as precise as you got.
Is it true that this is supposed to happen? +3 STD RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND
ACROSS ALASKA AND THE YUKON TO EASTERN PARTS OF SIBERIA...WHILE
ANOTHER BLOCKING RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER GREENLAND AND THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO BLOCKING RIDGES WOULD
SET UP A PATTERN WHERE VERY COLD AIR OVER SIBERIA WOULD BE ALLOWED
TO CROSS THE POLE AND EVENTUALLY MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES TO THE STATES.
I'll have more on this wintry pattern change shortly here on the blog and, of course, throughout the week on our WeatherWatch 4 weather segments on News 4.
For those reading the previous comment, that's a quoted excerpt from a long range discussion from the NWS written earlier in the weekend.
The Bills could have used a few blocking ridges yesterday...
-Mike
Good line, Mike! Of course, the Bills offense could have used a good line yesterday...gee, we could go on and on with this....
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