Good Thing Turkey Trotters are Hardy Souls
The weather will be decidedly unpleasant for the Turkey Trot this year. Wednesday night rain may begin mixing first with sleet, then snow, even before sunrise on Thanksgiving. During the course of Thanksgiving morning, this mixed precipitation will turn to all snow, with a very raw northerly wind to boot. There could even be some slushy accumulation developing by later in the morning, with temps dropping thru the 30s. WNY roads will have slick spots during the afternoon and evening.
I'll update this Thanksgiving forecast later today.
I'll update this Thanksgiving forecast later today.
posted by Don Paul at
12:46 PM
19 Comments:
Hey Don Paul, I think this is a great idea because I'm such a weather fanatic and I have my sights on being a meteorologist when I go to college in a few years. I'm confused, though - I;ve checked a lot of differennt websites, and they all say different things - some say it will rain which I hope it doesn't, and others hint at a possible snowstorm. If the latter was the vase, why aren't there any watches issued? Are we getting a lot of snow? Could it come down to the night before to see just how much we're getting? And who would ge the most snow - the coldest air is supposed to filtrate into the Niagara Frontier so we will see more snow or a changeover to snow or frozen precipitation first? Thanks for any help.
Sorry for the spelling errors, usually I'm a good speller. I think this just shows how difficult it is to predict a major event - I can't imagine but I will someday. Just how hard is it to create a forecast?
Have a look at this other blog. It gets into details of just how bad this storm could be. Is it a classic Colorado Low? I know it's in 'Canadian' but it looks like some significant snow will occur. It looks like it will be a lot worse in Canada. How do you think it will compare to the average lake effect event for Niagara?
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=anderson
I'll be dealing with this shortly on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6--and then get back to this blog with details during the evening.
Paul,
This isn't really a classic lee-of-the-Rockies low. But it will have a significant impact in our region on Thanksgiving. If you're asking about its aftermath and lake effect in Canada (not clear from your comment), it will produce narrow, multiple bands of lake snow off Lake Huron. The snow for WNY will not be lake effect on Thursday; it will be a general snowfall. Lake snow will develop for Friday on a NW flow, meaning significant amounts are more likely well south on Friday, and some to the NE of the metro area as well.
On Thursday, the cold air will be deepening from NW to SE. That means a later changeover and probably lower amounts east of Jamestown in the srn tier, and in nrn PA. The best potential for several inches will be on the Niagara Frontier, with the changeover occurring first in Niagara County. Should the cold air deepen as rapidly as WeatherWatch 4's Super Microcast high resolution model indicates (around or a little before dawn) heavier amounts of snow would fall. Other models slow this changeover by several hours. My preliminary estimate is for 2-5" by late afternoon on the Niagara Frontier, and somewhat lower amounts to the SE. This accumulation range, at this early stage, is NOT carved in stone by any means. I believe my colleagues at the NWS are going for a somewhat lower range, not yet mentioned in their zone forecast but discussed in their Area Forecast Discussion. It's not a huge difference in forecasts, though.
Thanksgiving still a tough call indeed as to when we change from rain to the frozen stuff! With a stationary front nearby, all it takes is a 50 mile diffence in the position of the LOW. If it moves east faster, here comes snow. If it stays west, we stay in rain for longer. I'm counting on a faster changeover to snow on Turkey Day. There's a 1036mb HIGH over Manitoba that's heading toward the Great Lakes. This could be enough to kick it east....but will this strong dry weather system also help to diminish precip intensity? .... food for thought...and interesting!
Late evening data now slows the advance of the coldest air by a few hours. Taking my Thursday snow accum down a bit based on this trend, to about 1-3." The changeover will develop later in the srn tier east of Jamestown, and amounts will be lighter there. But that deficit may be compensated for in Fridays lake snow, will be concentrated in Chau & Catt Cos. Some limited lake snow may still reach the metro area on Saturday, with a fairly cold SW flow.
Don and Mary Beth, I'm one of the many from around the country who will be coming home to WNY this week. One of my annual traditions is to meet up with all of my long-time friends and head downtown Wednesday night. It's not looking like a great night--any chance we won't be totally rain-soaked tonight?
Stephen,
Sorry, but it's looking to be a very wet night across the metro area.
Cold air will not deepen enough for a changeover to snow until Thanksgiving morning. Snowfall totals still look to be fairly unimpressive (1-3" max), but that will be enough to produce slick spots on the roads by later in the day as temps drop below freezing. For the Turkey Trot, Rain will mix with Sleet and some Snow, but surface should still be "just" wet for the event--with a raw breeze out of the north.
Don Paul ROCKS!!! One of the best meteorologists in the world,(sorry Mary Beth and Mike). At what time Don do you think that niagara county will begin to see the changover from rain to another frozen form of precipiation. Also with low pressure and winds from the north and north north east, wouldn't niagara and orleans see lake effect snow for thanksgiving. I was just curious. Please announce on the six o'clock weather seeing that is the soonest I will be able to get home. Your biggest fan since age 8 and still is, S.V.A!
Bummer, Stephen. It's a rainy night indeed...and a Winter Weather Advisory is posted for our entire region from 4am til 4pm Thanksgiving Thursday. Rain scheduled to change over to sleet after midnight and snow by morning. There may be a period of freezing rain mixing in at higher elevations, too. No picnic for holiday travelers who are driving. And, gee, I hope you're not flying through Chi-town or one of the other major hubs seeing huge delays from weather. The delays are all from the same system that's affecting us. Hope you enjoy your time at home, Stephen!
Late data suggests the changeover to snow won't begin until during the morning, from NW to SE. Rain will begin to mix with sleet in the predawn hours closer to Lk Ontario, and this mixture should reach the metro area (and the Turkey Trot) by or shortly after sunrise. The mixture will turn to a short burst of accumulating snow, before diminishing to snow showers during mid/late afternoon. There may be some Lake Ontario enhancement in areas north of the City, so heaviest amounts will likely fall in those locations. I'll have an updated forecast, of course, on News 4 later tonight.
Don,
Env. Canada is calling for 5-10 cms (2-4")for Toronto. Although we're deeper in the cold air. Will the extra 35 miles mean that much? Are they being a bit more pessisimistic here than you...
Yep, Paul--the extra 35 miles means that much. And that's why I'm forecasting lighter snow for the counties to the SE of Buffalo. THAT 35 miles will matter that much, too.
BTW-What is the Turkey Trot exactly?
Sort of a marathon of shorter duration, and one of the oldest in the USA.
Happy Thanksgiving! Good news for local travelers this afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory is cancelled. Snow Showers will be with us, but with little or no accumulation--though there could be slick spots on bridges and overpasses with temps below freezing. Enjoy your holiday--see some of you tonight on CW 23 at 10pm and News 4 at 11!
Looks like we're wrapping up with about 1" in Toronto. Pessimism prevailed. Don't know if you got anything at all down there..
Hey Paul...
We got a dusting in the Buffalo Metro on Thanksgiving. Not much to speak of! We may see a few more flakes in the metro tomorrow (Saturday), but its not going to amount to much. Although temperatures are cold enough and winds will prevail out of the SW on Saturday there is a lack of moisture to work with in the lower & upper levels of the atmosphere thanks to a large area of High pressure setting up over the Northeast.
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