La Nina Doesn’t Necessarily Mean a Snow Drought
In light of the present La Nina event and the suggestion that snowfall may be lighter this winter, I decided to dredge up some recent research.
Several years ago, my son Chris, who happens to be a closet meteorologist, though he would never admit to it, with the help of some “weather guy” at Channel 4, did an analysis of Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies projected on a plot of the annual Buffalo snowfall for a school project.
As a matter of background, the cyclic warm temperature anomalies in the Pacific are referred to as an El Nino event, whereas, the cold temperature anomalies, La Nina. Both El Nino and La Nina events have a significant impact on the hemispheric weather patterns and to some degree, even the weather here in Western New York. For the sake of the study we considered only major El Nino and La Nina events and eliminated the minor events.
The monitoring of Pacific sea surface temperature was in its infancy as late as the early 1970’s. I recall corresponding with Jerome Namias of the Scripts Institute, one of the pioneers in the Pacific SST research while in high school during the early-mid 70’s, and even during that time, Pacific SST anomalies were neither classified as El Nino or La Nina events.
For the sake of our study, we reviewed Pacific SST patterns from the early 70’s through 2000. Interestingly, during that period there were four significant La Nina Events. The first resulted in a Buffalo winter snowfall of 89” in 1973-74, then 82” in 1975-76, 67” in 1988-89 and finally 100” in 1998-99. Aside from the winter of 1998-99, which resulted in considerably less snowfall, none of the La Nina events produced a snow drought for Western New York.
Another interesting by-product of this study was that significantly less annual snowfall was recorded at Buffalo pre-1950 as compared to post-1950. Chalk it up to either cycles or climate change; there were only three 100+ snowfall winters from 1920-1950, whereas there were 18 between 1950-2000.
Snow lovers rejoice!
Several years ago, my son Chris, who happens to be a closet meteorologist, though he would never admit to it, with the help of some “weather guy” at Channel 4, did an analysis of Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies projected on a plot of the annual Buffalo snowfall for a school project.
As a matter of background, the cyclic warm temperature anomalies in the Pacific are referred to as an El Nino event, whereas, the cold temperature anomalies, La Nina. Both El Nino and La Nina events have a significant impact on the hemispheric weather patterns and to some degree, even the weather here in Western New York. For the sake of the study we considered only major El Nino and La Nina events and eliminated the minor events.
The monitoring of Pacific sea surface temperature was in its infancy as late as the early 1970’s. I recall corresponding with Jerome Namias of the Scripts Institute, one of the pioneers in the Pacific SST research while in high school during the early-mid 70’s, and even during that time, Pacific SST anomalies were neither classified as El Nino or La Nina events.
For the sake of our study, we reviewed Pacific SST patterns from the early 70’s through 2000. Interestingly, during that period there were four significant La Nina Events. The first resulted in a Buffalo winter snowfall of 89” in 1973-74, then 82” in 1975-76, 67” in 1988-89 and finally 100” in 1998-99. Aside from the winter of 1998-99, which resulted in considerably less snowfall, none of the La Nina events produced a snow drought for Western New York.
Another interesting by-product of this study was that significantly less annual snowfall was recorded at Buffalo pre-1950 as compared to post-1950. Chalk it up to either cycles or climate change; there were only three 100+ snowfall winters from 1920-1950, whereas there were 18 between 1950-2000.
Snow lovers rejoice!
posted by Mike Cejka at
10:23 AM
13 Comments:
"For the sake of our study, we reviewed Pacific SST patterns from the early 70’s through 2000. Interestingly, during that period there were four significant La Nina Events. The first resulted in a Buffalo winter snowfall of 89” in 1973-74, then 82” in 1975-76, 67” in 1988-89 and finally 100” in 1998-99. Aside from the winter of 1998-99, which resulted in considerably less snowfall, none of the La Nina events produced a snow drought for Western New York."
Very interesting has any of this changed in the year 2000+ ?
This post has been removed by the author.
Interesting..I think one or two lake effect events can really skew things vs the synoptic/general snowfall trends..i.e. with the October 2006 Blizzard the winter snowfall probably would have been below average but it was average because of it..
Do you think better science on the snowfall measurement could also be a factor of why more snow in the latter 20th century?
Mike...
Steve at NWS here...great blog...
A few points on the snowfall...yes indeed many more high snow years since 1950 than prior...but I dont really think its climate change...it's more likely location and measurement techniques...prior to 1944 all measurements were taken downtown which gets a bit less than airport anyway..and once a day on a roof vs once an hour on a snowboard...that can make up 25% difference...so its apples vs oranges. Also...not sure where you got the snowfall for past recent winters...but they are not quite correct...last season's 88" included the 24" in oct! also...keep an eye on friday for lk eff in metro although it will getting warmer and winds shifting...and weekend storm looks more like rain to me...but...I'm off this week! keep up the good work...
Good point Steve...I did consider that. I realize that at one time the observations were taken downtown rather than at the airport. It is unfortunate that we do not have a complete data set from one location during the entire period.
Oops...I must have been in my midday stupor when I referenced the snowfall data set...
let's set the record straight...
2000-01 159"
2001-02 132"
2002-03 111"
2003-04 101"
2004-05 109"
2005-06 78"
2006-07 89"
Follow up to earlier comments...
I believe that this is the first La Nina since 2000...I'm quite sure someone will chime in if it is not...
And when considering the climate record, we do not differentiate between localized lake effect v. synoptic snowfall and we probably shouldn't. The localized lake snows are a huge part of the local climatology.
Steve--great to see you on here! Mike and I go back a long way with Steve McLaughlin. In fact, he was in our weather center on Jan 21, 1985, helping us out with the blizzard. I like to occasionally kid Steve on the air that he's a former Ch 4 meteorologist--because he is, albeit briefly. Steve, now a Lead Forecaster and Hydrologist with the NWS Buffalo, got his original degree in engineering, and then went back where his heart really is and got another degree in meteorology. While still working M-F downtown as an engineer, he took on the weekend job here at WIVB (mid 80s)--but lasted only a couple of months because of fatigue. Not having a single day off week after week gets old fast.
Besides being a superb forecaster, Steve not that long ago turned down a Lead Forecaster position in a so-called "more desirable" part of the country because he genuinely didn't want to leave here. Am I making you blush yet, Steve? Hope so.
Don, with the November 20th, 2000 event there was a passage of a cold front the morning of. Then a potent and well developed band of heavy lake snow was pretty much parked over Buffalo and the immediate southern suburbs. My question is, if you remember the details of this event, how were the winds behind the cold front able to stay aligned in a wsw/sw direction for as long as they did that day. I ask this because in most cases right after a shot of cold air is ushered into our area the winds driving that air are usually coming from a wnw or a nw direction?
Also, was the intensity of that snowfall due to the sharp contrast in air temperature change from early morning to mid morning, coupled with the sw flow covering a good fetch of the lake or the strength of the low pressure system?
Actually, there have been many instances of prolonged SW flows behind cold fronts, including some of our great blizzards. On that day, models suggested the winds would veer to westerly by late afternoon after starting out from the SW. The veering began, but then stalled for a few hours right over Buffalo, resulting in the huge dumping.
Light Snow Snow
81°F
(27°C)
Humidity: 58 %
Wind Speed: W 17 G 30 MPH
Barometer: 29.94"
Dewpoint: 64°F (18°C)
Heat Index: 83°F (28°C)
Visibility: 9.00 mi.
This was posted on noaa.gov at 213 pm on thursday 11-29
..priceless..=]
Major Metro BUF snowfalls are often fed by strong arctic vortices that move south and remain stationary in the Upper Great Lakes. In this case (unlike with a high pressure system) CAA takes place on the SW edge as the coldest of air moves from SW to NE. If you look at the October 2006 LES Arbigeddon, you will see what I speak of. Here is a link to the upper air nam conditions.
http://weather.unisys.com/archive/eta_init/0610/06101312.gif
Quite textbook in many ways.In this case, you get little shear as the low stacks at all levels and directional shear becomes null.
PABLO
What I do not get about any of the weather forcasts is why as a general public we need to hear about fronts, and high and low pressure or even seeing weather maps. There is to much weather on the news cast in my opinion. I think we need to know what the temp and precip will be for the next few days and that is all. Please shorten the weather to under a minute as it should be.
hi mike, could you pass this message on to the viewers not to forget our pets unfortunate to be left outdoors in such horrid weather conditions?? there was no mention of this on any broadcasts this past week!!!!!! thank you for caring...lovin the animals
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