Thanksgiving STILL a tough call....
Here it is Monday, and it will still be a tough call for Thanksgiving weather. For example, one NWS computer model has a cold front crossing WNY by Wednesday evening, with cold air becoming dominant before Thanksgiving morning. That model's solution would leave us with lighter snow showers and cold temperatures for the Turkey Trot. Another NWS model has a slower solution which has the cold front slowly crossing the region by Thanksgiving morning. That would leave us with a steadier cold rain for the Turkey Trot, and a change to lighter snow showers during a Cold & Breezy Thanksgiving afternoon. Either way, things will be considerably more wintry around here before the day is out, and there will be chance of slick spots on the roads by or before Thanksgiving night. As of this writing, I'm leaning toward the latter, slower solution but I have little doubt this is going to stay a tough call a while longer.
In any case, Friday looks to be the coldest day of the season thus far. There are signs that a disturbance in the upper level winds may back Friday's NW winds to SW by Saturday, and that would bring some limited Lake Snow potential into WNY's metro area. And, there is JUST an early hint of a more significant wintry pattern developing in early December. More on that over the next few days.
In any case, Friday looks to be the coldest day of the season thus far. There are signs that a disturbance in the upper level winds may back Friday's NW winds to SW by Saturday, and that would bring some limited Lake Snow potential into WNY's metro area. And, there is JUST an early hint of a more significant wintry pattern developing in early December. More on that over the next few days.
posted by Don Paul at
12:20 PM
5 Comments:
Don our weather has been quite changeable over the past week or so. Warm for a few days then back to colder with some snow. Is this typical of a strong La Nina or just the usual november weather for our area? Thanks Mike
The La Nina is still considered to be a moderate one. The answer to your question: some of both. It's typical to have lots of ups and downs as we move deeper into autumn. On the whole, up until now, this has been a very warm autumn. That will temporarily change later this week into Saturday, and there are signs of a possibly more significant cold pattern as we get into the beginning of December.
As of Monday evening, it's looking more like Thanksgiving morning will start out wet and chilly, with rain mixing with snow and then changing to scattered snow showers by or during the afternoon. Major accumulations are not likely, but there may be some slick spots on WNY roads by later in the day, as temps begin to drop to and then below freezing in the evening.
Lake effect potential for Saturday looks modest at this point, even if winds back to southwesterly and "aim" toward parts of the metro area. Temperatures aloft will be sufficient for some snow, but not so cold as to produce intense bands of lake snow.
If the first week of December will be well below normal, will that mean my vacation in the Mayan Riviera be sunny as the sub-tropical jet stream will be pushed further south of that region? Lately they have been having a lot of rain there and somewhat cooler than normal. I don't know if that is also because of La Nina?
La Nina is just one of many factors determining atmospheric patterns, but it have play a role in the wet weather down there you've noted. It's unclear whether this wintrier pattern in early December is definitely going to materialize (that's why I used the words "hints of"), and whether or not a long wave in the polar jet would dig far enough to the south to displace the active, moist flow you've mentioned.
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