Winter Storm Watch this Weekend
A Winter Storm Watch goes into effect Saturday evening into late Sunday evening. My own thinking is that conditions won't go downhill until after midnight Saturday night. Snow will reach Chautauqua County first, toward midnight, and gradually spread to the NE in the predawn hours. An early estimate would be 2-4" of snow before the cold air grows more shallow and we go over to sleet, then freezing rain. Some models try to keep us in mainly freezing rain for the balance of Sunday, but I can't buy that right now. With warm advection and a SE boundary layer flow, I see us going over to rain by midday/early PM Sunday in the lower elevations ( valleys to the SE, Orleans & Gen Cos may take longer), with rain in the evening turning back to snow after midnight Monday.
It's always difficult to make a call on the depth of the subfreezing layer in a situation like this. This storm system will be a major weathermaker, but as I've posted elsewhere, it's not going to be as powerful as originally progged back on Tuesday. If we were to stay all frozen precip, of course, we'd have major problems.
In advance of all this, winds have come up after all to advisory level (bit stronger than I'd forecast and stronger than yesterday's NWS forecast), so there'll be some 50+ gusts this afternoon on the Niag Frontier & Chau Co, w/rain & snow shwrs arriving ahead of a cold front late in the day, turning quickly to snow early this evening. Not a lot of accum, but some blowing snow and maybe a few slick spots--very gusty winds continue this evening, diminishing later.
It's always difficult to make a call on the depth of the subfreezing layer in a situation like this. This storm system will be a major weathermaker, but as I've posted elsewhere, it's not going to be as powerful as originally progged back on Tuesday. If we were to stay all frozen precip, of course, we'd have major problems.
In advance of all this, winds have come up after all to advisory level (bit stronger than I'd forecast and stronger than yesterday's NWS forecast), so there'll be some 50+ gusts this afternoon on the Niag Frontier & Chau Co, w/rain & snow shwrs arriving ahead of a cold front late in the day, turning quickly to snow early this evening. Not a lot of accum, but some blowing snow and maybe a few slick spots--very gusty winds continue this evening, diminishing later.
posted by Don Paul at
1:16 PM
35 Comments:
Pretty interesting stuff. You know the very first thing that my mom said to me when i woke up is look @ the tv and right on there i saw that we were under a winter storm watch. oh man i wuz pretty excited needless to say! but it still sounds extremely complicated - theres gonna b mainly snow after midnight sunday, then it will turn to freezingh rain sleet and maybe rain (NOOOOOOOOOO!). but wouldn't you think that the northern counties would have the biggest accumulations of frozen precipitation because it will take longer for the warmer air to get here and all the forecasts i have seen keep us only around 34 or 35 so it shouldn't rain. what fo u think? am i just wishing 4 snow 2 much?
man im rly sry my spelling is off i rly am a good speller but i just type so fast cuz im excited about what could happen. sry.
Don, I consider you and WIVB team the only authority in weather. I check in with the other stations, but I don't trust their forcast like I trust channel 4s. Western New York really is a terrific place for wild and wonderful weather! Never a dull moment; take today for example. Keep up the great work all of you.
To weatherchic: Andy Parker at channel 2 was the only one last year that got the forecast right for the October storm. What I do is watch all three stations and average them out. Sometimes you can watch all of them and wonder if they talking about the same city.
Cant wait to the LES machine gets working!!!!!
NO one got the October storm "right."
NO one. He may have come a little closer, but we were all wildly off the mark, because it was an entirely unprecedented event for that time of the year at lower elevations.
Given the same data next October, I'd venture a guess some of us would err too much in the other direction from having come up so short last year.
NO one got the October storm "right."
NO one. He may have come a little closer, but we were all wildly off the mark, because it was an entirely unprecedented event for that time of the year at lower elevations.
Given the same data next October, I'd venture a guess some of us would err too much in the other direction from having come up so short last year.
Don will the storm this weekend tap into gulf or atlantic moisture? Or is it possible it will keep its pacific connection?
mike,
It's certainly still carrying some Pacific moisture, but it will also tap Gulf moisture and, by Monday, Atlantic moisture as well. I'm trying to determine how much of that Atlantic moisture will wrap around behind the storm for Monday, which would allow some steadier snow, rather than just Sct Snow Shwrs and multiple bands of lake snow in that NW flow.
weatherfreak, the eastern & northeastern part of the viewing area will keep frozen precip longer on Sunday, since it will take awhile longer there for the above freezing temps to reach the surface and lowest part of the atmosphere. But it's the lower atmosphere which plays the largest role in snow v sleet v freezing rain v rain. You can have freezing rain at 18 degrees if the air a couple of thousand feet up is very warm and doesn't become subfreezing until you're near the bottom of the atmosphere. That's why we have soundings of the atmosphere taken by balloons--to get that temperature and moisture cross section we need to forecast precip type in this kind of situation.
With a SE boundary layer flow, I'd be surprised if we didn't eventually go to all liquid rain before we change back to snow before sunrise on Monday. Some parts of WNY could even go liquid Sunday morning, depending on the strength of the warm advection on Sunday's SE boundary layer winds.
This weather blog was a great idea. Timely responses from the best weather team in the area. Are you seeing conflicting models that may indicate more atlantic moisture wrapping around this system. I'm a snow lover so i sure hope so.
Don (and others)....love the WeatherBlog....truly weather geeks like myself have been living for something like this...I have a question...When I was a kid (about 30 years ago!), I grew up in Jamestown in Chautauqua County...back then, it seemed like the Buffalo Metro always got the major snow events ('77, '85, among others) while Jamestown pretty much got passed over...I moved to Buffalo about 15 years ago, and things seem to have changed...now, the Southern Tier seems to get hit with regulartity, while the immediate Buffalo metro (October storm, Thanksgiving Storm 2000, and Christmas week 2001 Storms notwithstanding)seems to miss out...is this just some freakish nostalgia at work in my mind, or has there actually been some kind of climactic shift recently to cause this?...I would appreciate your insights!!
mike,
Wraparound doesn't look THAT impressive, but there may be a little of what's called a deformation zone hanging back to the west from the intensifying storm to our east. That's a zone in which additional lift and convergence occurs, allowing moisture to condense into more organized steady precipitation. Without that deformation zone, we face Sct Snow Shwrs along with multiple narrow bands of lake snow coming off Lakes Huron, Erie and Ontario. While that kind of flow can plaster areas closer to, say, Syracuse, it seldom delivers that much to WNY, and least of all to Buffalo.
Mark-glad you like the blog. Over the years, areas south of Buffalo have averaged substantially more snowfall than the metro area. That's partially because of the hilly topography which forces more convergence of moisture, and partially because a wind from 260-270 degrees (which misses the metro area)is somewhat more common than a wind from 250 degrees, which cuts right into the City. So, those vast blasts which occasionally hit Buffalo and even Amherst are slightly more the exception than the rule.
Back to work for me!
hello don.Just wondering if there is any warm ups in the near future? or are we pretty much going to settle into lower to mid 30's
hello don.Just wondering if there is any warm ups in the near future? or are we pretty much going to settle into lower to mid 30's
Hi Don,
With this pending winter storm will there be a narrow margin for liquid versus frozen precip.. which could mean will get more of the white stuff.
And if freezing rain does fall could there be significant icing ?
I love this weather blog !
Regards
Jack
With the initial storm passing so far west of us (before a coast secondary develops), we have to get into the warmer SE flow ahead of it, which should quickly scour out the subfreezing air by midday Sunday. That should keep ice accum to manageable numbers. Unlikely we'd see TOO much more than what I'm forecasting in the way of snow because the cold air will become too shallow in the SE flow to maintain it well into Sunday.
I like bad storms!I think its exciting once in a while to get a bad one.And they are pretty as long as I dont have to drive in them.I havent seen an event in the last 10 years or so to compare to what the winters seemed to be like when I was a kid in the 70s.It seemed colder and snowier back then.There are exceptions though.The oct surprise, that time we got 6 feet of snow in a day or so.I hope we get alot of snow!
Earlier question on warm ups. Tonight's runs suggest the beginning of some moderation on Friday, and moreso during next weekend.
Don,
I was just wondering it seems to me that our weather is soo much winder now than say 10-15 years ago. I never remember it always being so windy all of the time, not just in Winter but I noticed it in summer and fall as well. Have you noticed this?
How come temperatures this afternoon seem to be running 5 to 10 degrees colder than was forecasted as late as this morning? And how, if at all, will this affect the slated wintry mix for tomorrow?
Temps in Buffalo colder than predicted because of an Arctic Front slipping southward across Lake Ontario over the last 18 hours. Check out Meteo Madness weather blog at Accuweather.com
He has some great insight, although a bit long winded in his videos.
We will still see a Wintry mix tomorrow (Sunday). It should start changing over to sleet first for Chaut. county and spread toward the NE during the morning hours. Then it is looking that we will see some periods of all rain during the late afternoon/early evening. Temperatures will get above freezing for daytime high's tomorrow. After the "all rain" period it will change back over to snow overnight Sunday and Monday AM due to the wrap-around on the backside of the low.
Yes, your right about the temp. It was actually 24 at midnight and continued to drop through the AM hours and even a degree or two this afternoon into the upper teens. It was cooler than I anticipated this afternoon!
Lindsay
With the colder than anticipated day today (Sat.) and consudering the Arctic front that dropped down out of Ontario do you still anticipate some rain Sunday? NWS and private weather services are down playing the rain aspect from earlier reports. Also some reports are forecasting "heavy" LES beginning Monday. Do you agree?
The high temperature at Buffalo today was 23. Most forcasted highs were for the mid 20's. Not too far off the mark.
According to the National Weather Service the high temperature at the KBUF was 24 degrees at 2:14AM, and it has dropped ever since to the 18 degree low reported a little under twenty minutes ago. The Weather Service as of this morning was calling for afternoon highs of 26 at noon, 27 at 3PM, and 24 at 6PM. As Lindsay admitted, she projected upper twenties today likewise. 5 to 10 degrees is quite a difference, especially when trying to figure the timing of projected precipitation type changes tomorrow...
should we brace for blizzard conditions on Monday or has the NWS just freaked me out for no reason with their discussion?
I saw M.B.'s broadcast that said LES with blowing winds but the track shifting from north to south was unclear on the timing. When is it expected to shift?
How bad will the ice get, do you think? Iowans are reporting over and inch right now. Rte 5 will be a nightmare come monday.
Radar shows snow in Chattaqua. its 8pm.
should we brace for blizzard conditions on Monday or has the NWS just freaked me out for no reason with their discussion?
I saw M.B.'s broadcast that said LES with blowing winds but the track shifting from north to south was unclear on the timing. When is it expected to shift?
How bad will the ice get, do you think? Iowans are reporting over and inch right now. Rte 5 will be a nightmare come monday.
Radar shows snow in Chattaqua. its 8pm.
Along those lines, MB mentioned that there would be LES in the metro area at the beginning of Monday, but I don't see anything about metro area LES on the NWS discussion.
Any specifics...
the latest run of gfs is showing the winds from sw when the lake effect starts so the metro area in monday morning will be hazardous due to the strong winds and the blowing snow with lake effect snow going on
Regarding precip type tomorrow (Sunday). Despite the cooler that expected day we had today, snow will change over to sleet and freezing rain during morning and early afternoon and there will be some periods of all rain especially in the southern and western counties. It may be a little tougher for the mild air to penetrate to the northern counties, BUT if I had to make the call I think they should see a period of all rain too.
Check out the 9Z SREF model of precip type in the NE...Most of the ensembles show a nice swath of rain overspreading the area during the late afternoon/early evening.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SREF21TYPNE_9z/srefloop.html
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski
/SREF21TYPNE_9z/srefloop.html
The URL was too long on the previous post and it truncated the web address. Here it is in full form...
thanks for the link, lschwartzwaelder. Thats great! thanks!
:o)
radar looks like its got us surrounded...closing in now!
here we go again!
We will see some snow in the metro on Monday. This will be from the wrap-around on the back side of the Low. However, between 9and 12Z is when the wind shifts from having a Southerlie component to a West and finally a WNW. This will allow areas like Chaut and Catt as well as Warren & McKean in PA to get the brunt snow because of LES setting up. 5-9 inches is possible for those counties and there is a Lake Effect Snow Watch in effect for S. Erie, Chautauqua, Catt, Warren and McKean counties between Monday AM and Tuesday PM. Also, wind will be a big concern for all of WNY on Monday as there will be blowing snow and wind gusts up to 50mph.
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