Wintry Pattern Change Still Coming
A pattern change we hinted at 2 weeks ago, and spoke more definitively of last week is still coming, but....there are caveats. Late last week it began to appear the coldest of all patterns, in which Siberian air crosses the Polar region and drops through the Canadian prairies into the northern & northeastern states, was setting up. This cross polar flow is usually related to a strong ridge of high pressure stacked up into the atmosphere over the western part of North America, and a ridge of high pressure over Greenland in a Negative/Cold phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation working in tandem to force the polar jetstream to take a deep dive into the U.S.
Over the weekend and into today, however, it now appears the Negative NAO will not be that strongly negative, and only limited cross polar flow will develop into the Yukon. These polar airmasses , dropping so far to the west in Canada, have the chance to become modified on their way to our region. Bottom line: It will get plenty cold, but not to extreme values--some days with highs in the 20s.
There will also be several possible rounds of lake effect snow. On Tuesday, there may be several hours of limited lake snow mainly in ski country, and possibly the Buffalo Stowns, in the afternoon as gusty, cold westerly winds increase with temperatures at around 5000' (850mb) just cold enough to make it happen. A more impressive potential will develop on Thursday afternoon, though that flow will veer to a more NW orientation. On Friday, a wave in the upper level winds will back winds to SW and possibly bring some lake snow north, and on Saturday--a very cold day--there will be some lake snow potential as well, though lower level winds become more uncertain farther out in time.
If that's not enough, there are early indications of either a general snowfall or mixed frozen precipitation from a southern plains low by Sunday evening.
Wintry enough for you folks?
Over the weekend and into today, however, it now appears the Negative NAO will not be that strongly negative, and only limited cross polar flow will develop into the Yukon. These polar airmasses , dropping so far to the west in Canada, have the chance to become modified on their way to our region. Bottom line: It will get plenty cold, but not to extreme values--some days with highs in the 20s.
There will also be several possible rounds of lake effect snow. On Tuesday, there may be several hours of limited lake snow mainly in ski country, and possibly the Buffalo Stowns, in the afternoon as gusty, cold westerly winds increase with temperatures at around 5000' (850mb) just cold enough to make it happen. A more impressive potential will develop on Thursday afternoon, though that flow will veer to a more NW orientation. On Friday, a wave in the upper level winds will back winds to SW and possibly bring some lake snow north, and on Saturday--a very cold day--there will be some lake snow potential as well, though lower level winds become more uncertain farther out in time.
If that's not enough, there are early indications of either a general snowfall or mixed frozen precipitation from a southern plains low by Sunday evening.
Wintry enough for you folks?
posted by Don Paul at
1:46 PM
64 Comments:
LOVE IT.... Bring on the cold weather and snow already. I need to ski! Keep up the good work because reading this brightens my day. Thanks again!
at last don at last u went with the models forecast for early next week
yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
I never went against them, Ayud. I talked about a wintry pattern change 2 weeks ago. There is much more to pattern recognition than looking at one computer model on the internet. There are other models which have to be factored in as well, which I mentioned on another thread.
I think you've confused my explaining to you that caution has to be observed in doing extended outlooks and forecasts with "going against the models." One has absolutely nothing to do with the other.
Love the blog Don, it is very refreshing as a "weather junkie" to find information that is precise and not condescending. Thanks, bring on the snow!!!
Paula
i was just joking around with u don but what college do i need to study metrology and become a metroligist btw im a sophomore in high school
cheers
Ayuud,
There are many colleges and universities which offer meteorology as a major. The closest to us is SUNY College at Brockport (Mary Beth and NWS met Steve McLaughlin got their bs degrees there--good program). SUNY also offers meteorology at Albany, Oswego, Oneonta, and Stony Brook. Depending on your grades and your budget (or parents' budget), there is the superb program at Penn State (largest in the country), which is not TOO far away. Regionally, there is also Cornell (Cornell degree, SUNY tuition!). Other fine programs are at U of Michigan, U of Wisconsin, Florida State--and that's just to name a few. If you dig tornadoes, the U of Oklahoma may be the ultimate place to go (the Storm Prediction Center and Natl Severe Storms Laboratory are located in Norman, by the campus).
I recommend you Google "American Meteorological Society" and check out their educational links. Be prepared for lots of higher math, equations, and physics. If you're a good math student, AP Calc in high school is a good investment.
Despite all those pretty tough courses, though, I have to tell you if you have a strong desire to be a met, the job DOES turn out to be worth it. I'm well into middle age, Ayuud, and I still dig it!
thanx don for the info
but is there anyway i can get scholarship for metrology btw im a good math student and know a lot about the weather
Was wondering is there any site or any info on wivb.com the has info on the largest snowfall events for our area over the past 10-15 years?
Hoping for a city crippling snowstorm this year..
Uggghhhhhh, a City Crippling Snowstorm this year! That October Surprise doozie from last year is still too fresh in my mind and aching bones to want that again for awhile! Although, I now have two generators, the snowblowers (2) are tuned up.... hey, maybe a giant snowfall with most people safe at home might be a little adventurous.
What does everybody else think?
Lancaster Lenny
Well, I don't see any signs of a "city crippling snowstorm" - yet. There will be a few chances for lake effect snow from later Thursday into Friday which could bring some up to the City on Friday, and some more probably away from the City on Saturday. This far in advance, however, the limited resolution and detail of global models which go beyond 84 hours out make it difficult to time any waves in the mid-level flow which would back a predominantly NW flow around to SW. Even when we do see such a backing, the precise vector/direction of the lower level (boundary layer) winds, if off by just 10 degrees (from 240 versus 250 degrees origin) means warning or not warning the wrong 100,000 people. A wind from 240 degrees tends to bring lake snow into Amherst and Clarence, and safely north of Buffalo. 250 degrees generally sends the band right into downtown Buffalo, the Buf airport, and out toward Batavia. 255 degrees is generally good for South Buffalo but not north Buffalo.
So, we need to know much more than general directions in the boundary layer, like SW. That's not good enough anymore, though it's much closer than earlier models from 22 or 23 years ago. An original computer model couldn't even recognize the Great Lakes as lakes, because we didn't have the computer crunch power to factor in non-ocean size bodies of water.
That's one of the primary reasons forecasts in the early 80s were less precise in geographic terminology ("south of the City" versus "below the Buffalo Stowns and mainly in ski country." The resolution just didn't exist for more reliable bndry lyr wind forecasts in that era and earlier.
This wintry outbreak looks to be fairly persistent much of the time from Thursday afternoon into next week, with temperatures averaging below to much below normal. However, the parameters for cross polar flow and its placement so far west on the continent still do not indicate extreme, bitter cold for our region. As I've mentioned, there will be several opportunities for lake snow, and the chance for some general snow by Sunday night into Monday. On that storm system, however, a European global model takes that storm to our west, which would put us in its warm sector until its trailing cold front passes the region. While much of next week will be cold, we don't have the information to line up winds and lake effect potential that far out.
We'll keep you informed on wivb.com and,of course, on News 4 throughout the week.
Don,
Interestingly enough, the Euro has been doing significantly more flip flopping than the GFS over the last several months. At this point, I think it's prudent to throw out the Euro and take the GFS weekend storm to the bank. The ensembles have been pretty much all over this idea for about four days now. In the end, it looks like light to mdt cold conveyor snows for WNY with the potential for the first (and possibly only)NYC-PHL-DC KU Storm (Kocin-Uccellini). Of greater interest, and worry, is persistent LES for the BUF metro once a Hudson vortex sinks south into the upper Great Lakes and sends a SW wind over the lakes and resulting in a possibly long term snow event for the metro.
Hey! I found a blog for WNY weather! I apologize as I sent a few emails to the news desk inquiring, rather begging for a blog. I never knew it was here...I usually get weather reports from NWS and try to catch your report on the news. Its such a great thing to have all eyes watching the models at all times so thanks for creating this forum!
The NWS statement mentioned a trof that will set up over the GL as a product of the Polar vortex drop for the first half of Dec. They said the last time that happened to this degree was in 1995. Stats from that year recorded heavier than normal snowfall totals and the coldest December in 101 years.
There was also a mention of an increase of clipper activity, as this week is a prequil with three so far scheduled to march through.
What thoughts have you on this, Mr. Paul? (is it Dr.???) When can we expect the change (if not already) and how significant will the temp change be?
Thanks for blogging!
some additional things to consider:
1) AO forcasted to drop to -4 or lower which would be a first since record keeping began
2) NAO going +2 then almost the next day droping to -.5
3) PNA fluctuating between positive, neutral, negative then jumping +2 rapidly.
4) Continued moderate La Nina
5) Very Strong Ridge over Alaska (some models calling for 1032-1040mb
6) Moderatley Strong Low over Hudson Bay (996mb)
:o)
Don,
Do you think Meteorologists’ are relying too much on computer models? I find it somewhat humorous that we talk about computers like they have their own brain. Computers are only as good as the person programming them, wouldn't you say?
Regardless... I think you do a great job and you are much better informed than that guy over on Channel 2! When did he become a Meteorologist? LOL!
I agree, it is very nice to see a WNY wx blog; I'd imagine this will prove to be extraordinarily helpful to the mets at WIVB during breaking wx events. Speaking of which, potent little system we've got swinging through the area today! I had a burst of graupel a short while ago here at 1500' on the Boston/Orchard Park line, and a peak gust of 32 mph so far on the backyard anemometer. Hoping for some 50+ with a touch of blowing snow later, lol!
Keep up the good work, Don.
Thanks, all. Had some computer problems at home today, so I can't respond much until this evening at work.
Lakeshadow: we don't assign absolute values to the AO, NAO & PNA, since there is an ensemble of model runs rather than a single run which determines overall trends. There is no record breaking AO indicated using the ensembles. The NAO's negative phase isn't that impressive either, nor is the PNA. But we'll still get plenty cold.
I see more than a modicum of cherry picking models here to satisfy the love of snow. I recognize that, because I used to allow snow loving to cloud my thinking early in my career.
Somewhere in the next few days, the metro area should take some lake snow on, but the majority of the time the boundary layer winds will have to westerly and not enough southwesterly component to keep any one metro area episode going on too long.
More after I catch up at work this evening. Glad you folks are excited!
Don i live in the village of Arcade. What is the best wind direction for heavy LES in my area? Is it 270 dgrees? Just wondering since you put some other wind directions up for the metro area.
just info to pass to wivb
i had recorded a 57mph wind gust near the westside of buffalo
cheers.......................
btw don i used the Kestrel Pocket Wind Meter to measure the wind gust that i reported a few minutes ago at laffayette high school
As someone posted early today "I think it would be prudent to throw out the GFS," I think you'll be able to see why I didn't.
More this evening.
Sorry--make that "throw out the European." The GFS has now jumped on nearly the same solution as the European for the Sunday storm.
don i have a confidence that sunday-monday period will be extreme for wny and especially the metro area because the gfs is predicting the snowstorm at that periond and winds of sustained 40 mph with gusts over 60 plus the winds will be sw to w that means lake effect to metro area with blizzard conditions
btw i recorded wind gust of 57 at my house
Ayuud,
Nope, it doesn't mean that yet. It's a quick flip flop in the model. I'd need to see it in several consecutive model runs before I had any confidence in that scenario.
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ012-019-020-085.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ012-
019-020-085.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NYZ006>008.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ006>008.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ001>003-010-
011.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR LEZ040-041.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR LOZ042>045-
062>065.-- End Changed Discussion --
Gale warnings on the Lake!!!
Those winds are brutal!
What happened such as tonight. The National Weather service issued the winter weather advisory and nothing happened and it was cancelled. What did they think they saw.
Well, William--I thought I saw the same thing. Even yesterday, I forecast a possible 1-3" in the interior hills later today and this evening. A strong, cold boundary layer with sufficient moisture, and I expected some of that moisture to converge over the ridges of ski country. Looks all we're going to get are some Sct Snow Shwrs. They issued the advisory, I think, because of the strong winds, wherein even light amounts would produce blowing snow and reduced visibility. Not an on the money forecast, but certainly no bust (in my own case, I was very emphatic yesterday on "Very Windy" for this afternoon.
Cesna: We rely heavily on computer models, true enough. But skilled meteorologists still conduct independent analyses of the regional atmosphere, and carefully examine realtime surface and upper air conditions, along with satellite imagery, doppler radar wind data, aircraft reports, and the like. We compare these conditions with how each of the models handled this time period. If a model initializes poorly on the first day, it will NOT do better further out in time, so it may be tossed. Over time, studies have shown operational forecasting mets do better using models than not using them--humans seldom triumph over machine, but we do much better than that if there's a good man/machine mix in preparing forecasts.
In the more distant extended range, we're more dependent on models to shape patterns and tendencies around the globe.
Mike in Arcade: I'd guesstimate a boundary layer wind of around 265 degrees is best for Arcade. 270 tends to drop it just about entirely into Chau/Catt counties.
You dont think the metro/watertown area will get a dose of LES on Friday with the SW winds? It looks like we might get some of those oscillating snow bands, to a degree, actually.
As per my model inquiries earlier, I understand snapshot readings are often arbitrary, but there is a cooling trend here that will quite possibly set some records for us in December. You may be right that I am wishcasting the big storms but I'm anti-snow fall...just dont want to get caught up in another storm! I dont want it to sneak up on me again this year! :o)
Good day for hot cocoa today! brrr!
have a good one!
lakeshadow,
The last model run I looked at showed winds coming around to 260 degrees on Friday, so unless there's a change in the morning run today (due out shortly), there's no sign the metro area is going to take a significant hit on Friday.
And, there's no sign we're going to be setting any records in the colder pattern, for reasons I've already detailed in earlier posts.
NWS statement re: Thurs/Fri:
WE WILL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR STEERING WINDS FOR BAND
LOCATIONS AND ORIENTATION. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STEERING
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT
WINDS WILL BACK SOMEWHAT FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A SECONDARY
SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING.
Doesnt look like NWS is confident with wind direction.
there is a hope for metro buffalo i checked the 12z run and it shows the wind backing to the southwest on friday
that means we get significant lake snow in the metro and the schools will be closed
yeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
If I were you, ayuud, I'd still set my alarm clock for Friday morning :)
From what I've read of Don Paul's comments here, it sounds like it takes more than one run of one computer model for anyone to hang their hat on a definitive forecast.
Whenever I get optimistic about a forecast I see, I remember that on the morning of 10/12/06, they were calling for lake-enhanced rain mixing with a little snow in the afternoon... slam against our local tv meteorologists, I'm just trying to point out the "you never know" factor.
-Mike
Ooops, typo in my previous message. Last sentence should begin with: "Not meant as a slam against our local tv meteorologists..." Sorry for the error.
-Mike
Ayuud, haven't you learned that wishing for a snowday brings about the opposite result??? Now there will be school and then snow... just like the Thanksgiving storm in 2000. It hit at 3:pm on a Wednesday. That day, at noon I was eyeing that one on the radar and really tried to get some of the folks at the school (I'm a teacher) to send the kids home. I let my kids go 20 minutes early (highschool drivers) and by 3pm (busses depart from lot) there were white-out conditions. It took me 5 hours and a carburator (hiked the last 2 miles) to get home that day. It took my husband 14 hours and a wedding band to get home that next morning! :o(
I hope the same sort of scenerio isnt played out with the next few systems. Its this doubt in the models...these funny fluctuations that tend to fool us, either way. Thats what I'm all squirrley about.
Nice forecast there Mr. Paul. (5pm broadcast). So now there's a LES probability for metro for Fri and Sat for an inch or two?
Thanks!
:)
Wow this blog is getting pretty big. How come places like Chautauqua seem to get all the snow warnings and snowfall? is it just because the location?
P.S send the Snow to Eden NY
8)
got snow: it's location and topography. The orientation of the "Chautauqua Ridge" helps it to capture much of the moisture in a 270-280 flow regime and force it to ascend and condense. If you want to live in Chau Co and get much less snow, you'll have to move down to the lakeshore!
Ayuud:
No snow day for you Friday. I suggest you calm down a little (you remind me of me in the 10th grade, to be honest). Wishful thinking is not what science is about. You might as well learn it earlier in life than I did....
Timing on this next system will be KEY! Its forecasted to change over to snow around evening rush hour. I've noticed that our timing, however on recent storms have been off a little due to localized conditions that either have sped up a system or it has slowed as it passes through. People who have some foresight can get home and off the roads before it gets too bad, (driver-wise, not weather-wise). I'm looking forward to a weather blog where the bloggers understand the delicate intricacies of merging on the I290 / I90 interchange. :)
lakeshadow, Thursday's snow will have almost no impact on that merge. Nearly all the snow (and not that much of it) will be in Ski Country, where Blowing Snow will be more of a problem on N/S roads. Looks like 3-6" max even there. Air is too dry, and stabilizing inversion comes down tom'w night, weakening the band.
I was talking about the changeover from wet to frozen precip. That usually causes some commuting headaches. And its already snowing in Warsaw, which I though the micro cast didnt show snow there until later today. How do you compile that microcast, anyways? Is that a product from NWS or NOAA or did you develop that yourself?
According to the NAM the next chance for SW winds are not forecasted until the 30z models. Even then the SW wind is only supposed to remain for a few hours. According to this, there doesnt seem to be any indication that there will be a metro shot of LES of any significance throughout the next 6 days, yet the NWS is calling for LES into next week. The shot of LES that would have come up north today is now forecasted to dissipate with high wind sheer, so my suspicions of metro snow are dwindling. I think it will just be windy and freezing with scattered flurries in N. Erie Co. and Niagara co. The S.towns, though, are going to get a healthy dose of the white stuff. However, Black ice I think should be an issue all over the WNY area.
NWS did mention the system speeding up:
THIS BAND OF RAIN
IS MOVING ALONG ABOUT 3-5 HOURS FASTER THAN GUIDANCE WAS
SUGGESTING...SO EARLIER FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY ALTERED
IN THE TIMING.
This is a common occurance in our weather forecasting, I've noticed. Is it because of lake temps, jet streak influence or something else, and how can we forecast to compensate for these timing issues?
Thanks again for your service. I'm really trying to learn about the various models and undersand how these systems develop and unfold as they pass. I dont claim to be an expert by any means, I'm very much a novice and have my AMS glossery close by. I appreciate your imput and efforts to help us all understand meteorology.
:o)
We have an upgraded version of Microcast called Super Microcast. It's a high resolution model we purchased in the private sector, and it's run on a workstation computer at the station. It runs, like a number of NWS models, every 6 hours.
lakeshadow; the Buffalo stowns are not going to get a healthy dose of snow. They may get some at the outset, but the bulk of this modest but windblown snowfall will be below the southtowns, in ski country.
I'm not sure I know what you mean by timing problems being consistent, and I don't think they are, so I'll pass on that one for now.
Sorry, I meant southern tier. oops.
Was the changeover from rain to snow supposed to happen later in the day? I thought the Super Microcast had the changeover for 5pm and the NWS was in agreement. Even NOAA didnt have us getting this cold so early in the day, yet I saw snow flying around 1:30 pm. This is why I brought up the timing thing. NWS did post that the track of the system was moving faster than they initially predicted.
I'm just trying to understand the different variables to consider when trying to track a system. As I mentioned before in my amature observations, it seems that oftentimes these systems speed up or stall out as they pass over and I was wondering if the lakes caused it or if it was an upper atmoshperic condition?
One other question: how is it that the super microcast will show precip aloft (rather than actual) and how can you tell its not going to hit the ground? This morning, Mike Ceijka mentioned the band of LS that should drift northwards to metro area, yet there was no graphic indication on the super microcast. So how do you read that?
(I'll catch your 6pm for an update on that snow band..I think shear will get the best of it)
Thanks again!
I don't have a copy of the NWS forecast from yesterday, but I know the changeover was forecast for the afternoon. In my own forecast, I clearly called for snow showers by afternoon. As for Microcast, our forecast doesn't necessarily match a graphical representation we put up on the screen. That is, we're not tied to any one model, and the forecast is what we put on our forecast graphic pages, not Microcast. Sometimes that human produced product matches Microcast, sometimes we do worse than the model, and sometimes we do better.
We can attempt to forecast whether or not a model is over or under on precipitation by looking at METARs upwind, atmospheric soundings (from balloons, profilers), satellite and radar data.
As I posted somewhere else, a working meteorologist has to work--and that means more than looking at models, though I'm sure we sometimes overely on them. We still have to look at an ensemble of models and compare all of them to realtime conditions at the outset to see which one is closest to those conditions at the start. We also have to consider what the recent track record of a given model has been, and we consider climatology as well.
Speaking of which, my own biggest error in the October Surprise was not believing some model output because of climatology. An event of that magnitude was unprecedented so early in the autumn. One NWS model wasn't quite cold enough, but had I tossed climatology I would have done better and at least forecast more than half a foot. That model, in that case, did better than the human input in the man/machine mix.
srkzAfter that October storm, really anything is possible with the weather! I dont think anyone could have predicted the degree of damage based on the fact that the snow was so heavy (slushy) and the trees were in full foliage still. The most amazing part of that storm though, I thought, was all the pink and green lightening. (that and the shear devastation of the trees.) I've been wondering if it wouldnt be best for this area to bury power lines or run them along sewers like some other cities. It would cost a lot to implement, but in the long run the power wont go out during a storm and save the region money and aggrivation. Just a thought...
anyways...
This polar vortex thing has got my interests peaked. It is not that uncommon of an occurance from what I've learned but there is an added potental to complicate things so I've been talking with other weather junkies about this (we exchange information and we all learn a whole bunch). Anyways we were looking at the NAO differentials from before 1900 and spotted a pattern trend that has repeated itself throughout the span of the past 100+ years, and this vortex anamoly seems to have occured on a fairly regular basis in correlation to the NAO.
I understand that the NAO is just one model, but with climatology in mind, what do you expect will become of this phenomenon this time around and how do you think it will affect the region?
Once again, thank you so much for taking the time to answer my questions. :o)
lakeshadow,
The NAO is a mathematical index of an atmopheric pressure pattern, it's not a model.
There is not such much readily predictable, cyclical behavior to it as you'd hope (or as I'd hope), or my job would be made easier.
It was just an observation, the correlation of the polar vortex anamoly and the NAO but there really is a pattern, its widespread over several decades and varies a few points along the way but the general trends have it spiking and diving in a cycle of about 30 years. It was hard to spot at first because we were only looking back about 35 years, initially but once we saw the data over the course of the century, we were able to spot a trend. This came into light with trying to understand the climate changes that are occuring. Many WX folks believe its a natural cyclic occurance and has very little to do with carbon emissions. In the pursuit of tracking these ancient weather patterns, we came across this seemingly interesting pattern.
I have a New England met friend that is forecasting a nor'easter for this weekend. They say the low over the GL is going to become a nasty coastal low. Although it wont be a player around here (however the GFS has the low passing to the north of NE). I did notice a change in the Unisys forecast, calling for widespread snow in our area this weekend into early next week. They show a low popping up over Lake Michigan and coming over us and heading out to the coast Reaches the coast in about 3.5 days according to the model.
Do you see any potential here?
The NAO is really only predictable about 2 weeks in advance, though the British Met Office has done some work with May SSTs and its correlation to the next winter's NAO dominant pattern (this year it's more neutral and changeable).
Patterns are sometimes in the eye of the beholder. Don't have time to get into it right now, but warming SSTs and global warming would be throwing these alleged patterns into some disarray in any case, in my opinion.
By the way, UNISYS is a company which provides graphical representations of NWS and other models.
The NAO is really only predictable about 2 weeks in advance, though the British Met Office has done some work with May SSTs and its correlation to the next winter's NAO dominant pattern (this year it's more neutral and changeable).
Patterns are sometimes in the eye of the beholder. Don't have time to get into it right now, but warming SSTs and global warming would be throwing these alleged patterns into some disarray in any case, in my opinion.
By the way, UNISYS is a company which provides graphical representations of NWS and other models.
here comes the snow band. Still organized but moving fast! the wind is fierce! measured 49mph gust. My house is rattling! tell your friends over there at the news desk to keep us posted with wind damage and possible hazards and power outages. 20 bucks says the signal on French and Transit in Cheektowaga is out!
cool, thanks for the info!
:)
Why cant I get WNY in the sector regions on the NWS storm prediction page, mesoscale analyisis, base reflectivity? :
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s6/index2.html
it should be in 6 RUT and WNY is cut off of the image.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s6/index2.html
That is the meso analysis for the Lake effect region 1 under winter weather on the meso page. It shows thermodynamics in the boundry layer and temperature differential. (as per my understanding)
I noticed how is kind of surfing the Chattaqua ridge in the loop.
oops I noticed to 2 sights are the same URL.. the first is from the main sector menu. I wish we could post links or images like on the wunderground blogs. It also allows you to edit your post.
thanks don 4 your hard work you put in your forecasts are way more accurate over the other local channels i snow plow and it really helps
i like channel 4 the best i think t forecast are on the money most of the time and is the only station i trust over the other local channels thanks don for your dedication to your work
thanks, jasonfant12.
This system looks omnimous, I was wondering what sort of impact it will have in our region, in your opinion.
I also wanted to point out that that NAO differential trend was from weather history. It is from the PAST 100+ years, not a projection into the future.
The Climate change trend is also a point of contention among mets...some do not agree that carbon emissions alone will cause the melting of the ice caps. They attribute it to solar weather and cyclic patterns in the atmosphere, geological occurances among many other factors.
Just felt the need to clarify.
Looking forward to watching this storm.
:o)
dear channel 4 meterologists....keep up the upbeat weather. i'am a advid viewer of your channel 23 newscast at 10p.m. as i love and care for the poor pets and animals outside it would be a great service to the viewers in cahnnel 23 land to frequently mention to take care of our pets that are left out in the bad weather. it is so sad especially on cold and frigid nights :( thank you so much!!!
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