Continuation on the Ice Bowl and Beyond
The Ice Bowl will be played in Icy Cold conditions. Some light snow showers will develop very late on New Year's Eve, possibly following a little mixed precipitation. However, the significant shot of cold weather we'd mentioned late last week and forecasted since early this week will still be arriving on New Year's Day. Scattered Snow Showers will produce at least minor accumulations up to and during the game, so the sweepers will have to get out there and clean the ice. For those who will be attending, we recommend wearing your absolute warmest gear, since temps will be dropping thru the 20s and there will be a very significant Wind Chill during the game. As for lake effect, boundary layer winds will not favor heavy accumulations near Orchard Park, as the winds will veer to westerly, then northwesterly, taking the better organized lake effect into Ski Country and the srn tier. This "Cold Snap" will deepen on Wednesday, with Sct Snow Shwrs on a NNW flow, and persist into Thursday morning. However, as previously forecasted, a rapid return of Pacific air will follow by Friday into the weekend and beyond.
The strong La Nina conditions still favor only "shots" of cold air from time to time, with little chance for extended periods of cold weather. The primary stormtrack will be from the SW, which is favored in La Nina conditions of this amplitude. Oftentimes, these storms will pass to our west, keeping us in the warmer part of their circulations.
The strong La Nina conditions still favor only "shots" of cold air from time to time, with little chance for extended periods of cold weather. The primary stormtrack will be from the SW, which is favored in La Nina conditions of this amplitude. Oftentimes, these storms will pass to our west, keeping us in the warmer part of their circulations.
posted by Don Paul at
4:13 PM
86 Comments:
Another incomprehensibly stupid remark from an intelligent fellow in today's Buffalo News. Yep, it's Pergament again. In summing up the year in Buffalo tv, he noted that I'd dropped the 4 Degree Guarantee this past year, and then went on to wish the local weathercasters wouldn't try to "scare us to death" each time we're about to receive "2 inches of snow." It's apparent, after covering this beat for several decades, he's still abysmally ignorant about our obligation to air NWS Watches, Warnings, & some advisories--and apparently he didn't hear about the 12+ inches of snow officially recorded during the major storm of 2 Sundays ago.
You really have to go out of your way to stay as out of touch on the subject of weather as Alan does. If he were a dope, I could understand it. But he's not, and that's whats so annoying about his blind prejudice against the most watched segment in local news. He just doesn't get that there's nothing in it for me to knowingly cry wolf. Those on this blog know we try to forecast with as good science behind us as possible.
Fortunately, a majority of viewers know better, according to extensive audience research.
I would say something... but you have said all that needs to be said, and you have said it well.
Keep up the good work
-Matt
hey don new years day models the gfs is suggesing a clipper that will track toward our area and give us some light snow showers after the winds back up to wsw for some hours but the 850mb temp are in -8c to -10c range so even if lake effect does develop it wont be significant
what do u think?
btw a blowtorch is coming after next week cold shot and ur winter forecast is right on the money
Don, I dont subscribe to the Buffalo News and the ONLY local news segment that I care to see on any of the networks is the weather on channel 4. Local media is a joke. Now that I have a computer, the Buffalo news is obsolete to me...soon enough everyone will realize that and we will all save a whole lot of paper.
if only the buffalo news had print competition...
New Year's Eve may start out with some light mixed precipitation, but the 18z GFS suggests a burst of snow may occur just as the New Year begins, with increasing WSW winds. While this won't be pure lake effect (it will be synoptically driven by a vigorous low pressure system), there would likely be some lake enhancement. On New Year's Day, winds will veer to W and then WNW, driving most lake snow into ski country and the srn tier. But there still will be snow showers with falling temperatures and possibly some blowing snow--meaning some ice maintenance will be needed between periods. A worsening wind chill is likely with temps falling thru the 20s.
As we've been saying, this will be a short-lived cold snap, with milder conditions beginning to return by Thursday evening.
Since there are no immediate signs of a negative NAO or AO before mid-January, the fairly strong La Nina will continue to bring above average temperatures much of the time for a couple of weeks--but NOT all the time.
As for Pergament, he's pretty much a lost cause for rational views on tv weather. There are a few other critics in other cities whose columns I see run along similar lines, but there are more who understand weather with far more depth, such as former Buffalonian Gail Schister in Philadephia, and Robert Feder in Chicago.
Don, you need to relax!! You need a long vacation. I noticed that you are very defensive.
Just relax and don't take things so personal. Alan was correct.. You did drop the "4 degree guarantee".. Did you not?
It wasn't my decision to drop the 4 Degree Guarantee, though I honestly can't say I miss it. That's not the point of contention I raised, but I'm not sure your reading comprehension is in top form tonight.
Alan was correct? I know he was using hyperbole, but even allowing for that his views on weather remain essentially clueless. The Buffalo News, either in blog form or in the form of his columns continues to take a decidely anti-local tv weather stance. It may be coincidental, and that's their right. But it's also one area in which they cannot compete with local tv due to the nature of the medium, and one area in which we have considerably superior expertise and resources. When I worked in Detroit for 5 years, both the Free Press and the Detroit News came to local tv meteorologists as well as the NWS for quotes and information on weather for stories. Not here. The News has put up a wall and has chosen to make disparaging remarks at nearly every opportunity. Much of what appears in this guise is little better than yahoo-ism. I would expect criticism from the News to be a little more thoughtful. With the exception of a knowledgeable reporter like Jay Bonfatti, what the News writes about weather tends to be shallow and their criticisms very inaccurate. I notice none of their criticisms concerning the Sunday storm of 2 weeks ago mentioned the NWS--just local tv weather people, mets and nonmets. Very selective, don't you think?
Taking a look at the models, theres a slurry of activity that seems to be brewing over the next few weeks...
Don so you see a trend with these systems (every week a strong system pulls through with weak clippers in between) and how long do you think this trend could last? Is it because of the position of the JS? Is it akin to that "bowling alley" reference that you have used in the past?
Is an attempt at trend spotting futile? what are everyone's thoughts?
thanks again...
The buffalo news is a corporate run mouthpiece with no real value to the community other than make mountains out of mole hills and to contribute to the political stagnation of the region. Somebody, please shoot that lame horse, already!!!!!
I got buisiness in this town, too...and there's not much to work with here!
Don,
thanks for your response..
Don--
I couldn’t agree with you more! There are people who honestly have nothing better to do than criticize people who do nothing but good for the community like you!! Allan, on the other hand is not doing any “good” for our community, obviously! He has made many attempts to “ruin” the reputation of WNY TV meteorologists, when in fact, I think he’s ruining his own! The Buffalo News, and local TV stations such as WIVB are a service to the WNY community… if anything you would think they would work side by side, especially on certain issues. Instead the Buffalo News (Allan) mocks you for doing your job and duty to WNY. Do you see anything wrong with that?? I do!! In my opinion, he really needs to THINK before he takes pen to paper! There are a select few who just flat out have a thing against meteorologists and weather forecasting in general… and they need to keep it to themselves… because they’re fighting a losing battle! These people who are saying all of these negative things are just trying to get on your nerves… deep down… a story needs to be made, or someone gets in trouble… if you know what I mean. You have always done nothing less of a great job! You are the best at what you do, and that’s why you (out of anyone else) tend to be the target. I can honestly say keep up the great work, and don’t let this nonsense get to you! Thank you for keeping me and WNY informed of what matters most on this weather blog!
-Sean from Getzville
*sigh*... These things happen in a one-paper town. Phoenix is the same way, with the Arizona Republic being the only paper in circulation there. Having lived there, I feel it's a better paper, overall, than the Buffalo News, but they still had some of the same dreck you see here - man on the street interviews, etc.
I get a kick out of those full-page ads you see a few times a year where the News shows all kinds of charts, graphs, lists, and so forth that support why so many people read it. Does anyone else realize that the only reason so many people read it is because there's no competition?
That's why cable bills are so high - no competition. Actually, there are mornings where I prefer to reread my Time Warner bill because it's more interesting than the paper. Maybe TW could add a sports page! :)
Rant over.
Here's a completely unrelated question - Didn't David Letterman used to be a tv weatherman? Was he just a weather "reader", or did he have actual training? Anyone know?
The only difference between David Letterman and Kevin O'Connell is that one of them has talent and was able to move on to better things. Thats the thing...in this town it doesnt matter if you're good at what you do, it only matters who you know. The idiots have been in charge for so long now, that just about everyone that is on the decision making end of things is an uncle or brother,perhaps a friend from a friend that someone went to college with... but certainly not a professional.
Any ideas when and if they are gonna build that bridge, anyways?????
slum-lord Achor men don't contribute either. Any ideas as to when no-tipping elitistst Postals will finally retire? I'm sick of looking at him!
To the last anonymous its a free country change the channel.
yeah, Mike that's why it boggles me that he's still there after all these years and the bad reputation he's gotten around this town. I did change the channel. A long time ago.
I'll get back to weather on this blog a little later, after I've had time to do some work--getting a late start this morning.
As for David Letterman--yes, he did weekend weather at the NBC affiliate in Indianapolis at the same time a very young Jane Pauley was anchoring there. I actually saw an aircheck of one his weathercasts ("we had hail the size of canned hams!") and it was hilarious. Dave never pretended to know anything about weather. He used it as a platform to entertain, and to pay off his Ball State loans.
I wonder what ever happened to Letterman....
I could care less about all this Ice Bowl stuff. For me I will be watching college football games on TV. I am a native western newyorker, but have never seen a Sabres game and don't want to. I wouldn't go across the street to see them even if it was free.
I wouldn't let A.P.'s "poison pen" bother you,Don. He's just "showing off" his mentality and trying to see if anybody reads his column. The only way he knows is when someone complains, since no one seems to complement his journalistic endeavors! What he really needs is to be educated about the topic he writes. Maybe you should offer to give him a tour of the weather center and then maybe he'll smarten up!
Thanks, folks. Okay, let's get back to weather.
This morning's model runs seem to delay the arrival of the coldest air until later on New Year's Day, though it will still be cold & windy for those on the scene, with sct snow showers. New Year's Eve looks to be Breezy & Chilly, with mixed shwrs thru midnight, and then a change to snow. The 850mb/5000' temps will not be sufficient for true lake snow in the predawn hours, but some minor/modest accumulation is possible before winds veer to more westerly.
Wednesday still looks quite cold, but nothing extraordinary. By Friday, temps will come back closer to normal, and then move above normal next weekend in what still looks to be an extended mild period. Even in such a period, a passing vigorous disturbance can shake things up for a day or 2, but there can't be an extended cold period in such a pattern. With this rather strong la nina, we would almost certainly require a phase shift in the NAO to deliver arctic air to us for any length of time.
I heard through the weather blog grapevine that we're in for a good dousing of LES along with that artic blast, the end of next week. I heard that from more than one met in the NE...so what are they seeing that you arent or visa versa?
That grapevine you're hooked up to is disconnected. I have no idea what they're seeing but, whatever it is, it's an apparition. Pacific air will come rushing back in here on a gusty SW wind later Thursday. Maybe it's the SW wind they're referring to, but it's going to be advecting warmer air aloft--and that tends to shut off lake effect, along with the likelihood this will be dry warm advection. There will be limited les on New Year's Day, but winds will be veering around to W and then WNW. No dousing there, either.
interesting...
Great White North calling...
Don, did you see the Environment Canada weather website detailing the top 10 weather stories of 2007 in Canada? It also breaks down specific weather events of note across different regions of the country.
Wondering if the national weather service in the U-S issues its own top 10 weather stories of the year?
For the bloggers out there..the Canadian weather review makes for some interesting reading even if it isn't in your own backyard.
www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca
Have a good night.
Hey Don, I was born in 1978 but I hear about the blizzard of 77 all the time. Can u tell me what conditions were that day that made it such a weather event. I heard, not sure if its true but that the lake was frozen over and we had all kinds of snow on the lake and that is what was kicked up and blown around. Also, what made that and the snow storm in 2000 of November different? That I did live thru and didnt make it home that night, there was heavy snow and thunder and lightening. Ive never seen anything like it before or yet. i know this is old news but just if you have time to explain that would be great!
Anonymous--what you heard about the Blizzard of '77 is essentially correct. The Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes had gone through an exceptionally cold and snowy late December and January, with the lake freezing early. A huge amount of powdery, dry snow had piled up on the eastern end of the Lake. On Friday, January 28, a powerful cold front crossed the region during the late morning. High winds developed and lasted for many hours behind this front, and these winds sprayed all WNY with this snow, with enormous drifts piling up day after day, though the 28th was the worst single day. During much of the next few days, it's unknown how much new snow fell since much of the time aircraft reported clear skies as they passed over our region, while they could observe the swirling ground blizzard in progress. NWS radar didn't detect all that much falling snow, and the blowing snow near the surface was beneath the radar beam. Some estimates are that only about 1 foot of new snow fell over several days. This was a unique event in recorded Buffalo history. Quite a number of people froze to death in their cars, trapped in whiteouts and surrounded by drifts.
The November 20, 2000 storm was a more typical strong band of lake effect snow. It was the timing of that event (just before the start of the afternoon drivetime) which left thousands of cars stuck in gridlock for many hours, while 24.7" fell at the airport as a trough of low pressure stalled. Lightning is common to strong lake effect, since it's a convective event. If you were on final approach to the airport, you'd see a row of low-topped thunderstorm-like cells snaking across part of the region, with occasional lightning.
Hope that's helpful.
Late Friday evening update: no major change in my earlier forecast. The main questions are how soon will a changeover to snow occur on New Year's Eve (probably not much before midnight at the earliest), and how soon will the winds kick in on New Year's Day? Either way, accumulations will be fairly minor, but some slick roads are likely for late night partygoers. Tuesday's high will come earlier in the day, with temps slipping from 33 into the 20's by mid/late afternoon.
Lake snow potential remains limited Tuesday, and what there is will likely be below the Buffalo Stowns (and south of OP). The NAM suggests gustier winds Tuesday than does the GFS model, which would have a significant impact on the 74k fans. Fairly deep freeze conditions with a rather Bitter Wind Chill on Wednesday, but not much snow on a NNW flow. Thursday, gusty SW winds will develop by afternoon, but they will be dry and moderating winds. If that's the case, don't look for anything much in the way of lake-induced snow. Temps move back into the low to mid 30s Friday.
See the temps are whats getting me convoluted for the next 10 days...I see projections that this arcctic air mass will deepen before it receeds. From what I can tell based on Unisys and the Euro models as well as the trend in dramatic fluctuations recently of the NAO (all more significantly trending negative) that we may get that SW wind with the arctic air. That will throw a wrench in the forecast right there...
Do you se ANY possibilities that this caould ever so slightly, or even remotely possible occur...cause I'm really quite certain this is a valid possibility. I'll try to find links of other forecasts that include this possibility...
more to come...this will be indeed another interesting week of weather.
btw...there was some great storm spotting in Alabamba, Missisippi and Florida's Western panhandle today! Severe Thunderstorms and Mesosyclones, a tornado outbreak, and massive rains to severely droughted regions.
Thanks Don, you explained exactly what I was looking for with regards to what happened. You are a great weather guy, Thanks again
Don, is it just me... or has WNY winters been warmer and less snowy as each year goes by?! I can remember winters we had 6-7 years ago... and they were all much worse (in terms of snow etc.) or "normal" I guess you could say for Buffalo standards. We seem to be in a rather long period of warmer and less snowy than average winters, wouldnt you say? And from how it looks so far... this winter doesnt look to be anything special...
Jim
Snow forecasted for the game..
Could be very difficult to see the puck!
Don,
Good Luck seeing a black disc that is only 1" thick and 3" in diameter from afar amongst the potential falling snow.. We may not even reach the JND threshold of being able to see the puck being matriculated down the ice.
Do you know what is the optical Distance size relation ship? A 3" dia puck is perceived how many iches in dia (?") from 250 feet away? Size perception question...
hey don the models are taking this sunday- monday storm system in nw direction even the 12z gfs is giving us light to moderate snow and some mets are saying it will contuniue to track nw for the next couple runs
what do u think?
does it look like the cold phase of the NAO is near?
when will the cold phase of the NOA be here
Jim, winters have been getting warmer, at least partially due to global warming, so you're not imagining it.
To lakeshadow; as of last night, there's no sign of your scenario. Unisys doesn't have models--they merely project graphic representations of government models.
After Monday-Tue, other than the midweek cold, this doesn't look like a particularly interesting week of weather, as you put it and, no, your scenario is not a "valid possibility" unless there's been a massive change in today's runs.
The NAO is not going negative anytime soon, ayuud, or is the PNA going positive.
Ok Don, thanks for your imput.
I think the NAO has been a bit jumpy lately, maybe too much so to be able to state that its not turning negative "anytime soon" but then again... What do I know, right? :oP
The NAO certainly has a shorter phase period than the ENSO in the Pacific, but it's seldom "jumpy." The trend will continue to be for a positive NAO most of the time into mid-January, when there may begin to be a phase shift. You can read more about the NAO on the website of the Climate Prediction Center.
I have no idea how you concluded the NAO was trending more negative (there will be a momentary dip in the index during next week's shorterm cold snap). During a moderate/strong La Nina, we're more unlikely to see extensive negative indices for the NAO. A weaker La Nina would have allowed for more fluctuation, but that's not what we've got.
I believe you also can read more about the NAO on the website of the British Meteorological Office. Their weather, of course, is equally impacted by the NAO.
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Wintry changes heading our way just in time for the new year. The start of '08 will prove to be rather interesting. Latest guidance (and not just the GFS) showing an Alberta clipper approaching late New Year's Eve with a wintry mix gradually changing to all New Year's Day morning with snow chances continuing through the balance of the day. Vort max centered across WNY for a period New Year's day morning could potentially give us a burst of heavy snow for a while. Occasional snow will likely continue into the afternoon and evening with falling temps through the 30s and 20s. Some accumulation is likely, but too early to tell how much. Looks like the strong winds will arrive later on New Year's Day after the Ice Bowl. But game-goers should dress accordingly for winter weather.
On another note, could some some minor snow accumulations later tomorrow night...around an inch or so.
just wondering, has there ever been such an extreme winter in which lake ontario actually froze over? i have a map that is form february 1994 and lake ontario is 95% frozen. i thot maybe in the "snowy seventies" the lake might have frozen. o, just to add there seemed to be periods of warm and cold winters. the warm winter stretches appear to be now, the 50s and 60s, and a short period around say 1925 or so. then the cold winters were late 1800s, 1940s, 1970s, and mid 1990s. we are in one of those warm periods. if i recall though, there was a cold winter in 02-03. just some thought
MC3008:
Lake Ontario has completely frozen over only twice as far as records show: during the winter of 1874-75, and in February 1934.
In a typical, normal winter, Lake Ontario will usually be 1/4 ice-covered, and in a mild winter it will be almost completely unfrozen.
zzz..Pretty quiet here with Snow and LES forecasted for the next few days , sounds like it maybe a white winter classic , hopefully will be a safe drive for people going to event..
Marv Levy is stepping down as General Manager. Reported by channel 4.
evening everyone. Here's some stuff I'm looking at, I thought was interesting. Its too far out to do a meso analysis, but it seems that there is a difference in the temp forecasts...may be the reason I'm hearing different forecasts from different sources.
This is the 4-day 850mb GFS:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/4
d/gfs_850_4d.html
4-day ECMWF 500mb height plot and SL pressure:
http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4d.html
Roads will be turning slick tonight first across the southern tier and northern PA as wrap-around moisture from a coastal system pushes snow into the region. This is a quick, brief shot of snow that will dump anywhere from a trace-2" from the metro/northward overnight and 2-4 inches from the extreme southtowns into Northern PA. Snow should wind down early in the morning.
A updated forecast for New Year's Eve/Day: As of late this afternoon, there's a divergence in the weather models as to whether significant vs. lighter snowfall accumulation will occur on New Year's Day. One weather model has the clipper taking more of a southerly route with the heavier snow concentrated across Pennsylvania and W. Virginia. Still in this case, we would receive a lighter snowfall. Several other weather models have the storm positioned closer to the lower Great Lakes...this would mean more significant snow which would likely start out as light snow or a wintry mix New Year's eve night. However, guidance is hinting at a period of heavy snow early on New Year's Day morning with light-moderate snow continuing into the afternoon. Also, winds will start to pick up in the afternoon. Temps at the Ralph for the Ice Bowl should average in the upper 20s/low 30s, but gusty northerly winds fom 15-25 will produce wind chills in the teens and low 20s.
An observation: A light, wet snow is falling here in OP. Cars and grass have a thin coating.
MB: Perhaps this is too difficult a question to answer in the limited space of a blog, but when you refer to models... (1) which ones are you referring to? (2) is there one that you tend to favor? (3) what variables distinguish the models... do they have certain variables that are more emphasized in forecasting a solution? do they tend to have different tendencies?
-Matt
Hi, Matt: I can't say that I favor one particular model. In weather forecasting, models are used as guidance, not gospel. When models diverge and offer different solutions, yes, a met can favor one model over the other, but most often times there's interpolation involved along with interpretation. I can tell you the least "favorite" model is the NGM..the Nested Grid Model. It is not nearly as scientifically advanced compared to the others. It still serves a purpose though, especially with it's MOS (model output stastics). The GFS model often has a "cold bias", because part of the equation on which it's based is taken from the former aviation model which characteristically had a cold bias.
MB-
How much snow do you think will fall Monday night thru Tuesday around these parts? Which areas in WNY could see the most? With your thoughts... are we talking road salt, or will the plows have to come out to handle this one?
Thanks, Jim
well I see the NGM is on board with that polar air deepening on thurs
there seems to be some sort of little clipper with it
it has some precip for us on thurs< too
sounds like this possiblility is getting more and more valid with each model run
This next wave of low pressure to move up toward the ern Great Lakes will bring a general light to moderate snowfall toward New Year's morning and into the day. Amounts will average 2-4" by evening, with closer to 2" south of the City (including OP). There is even a small chance a bit of sleet could mix in early on New Year's Day. Heavier amounts will develop north of the City late New Year's Day on into New Year's Night due to lake enhancement and wraparound moisture from a developing coastal low, so some locations from nrnmost Erie & Gen Cos up into Niag/Orl could see substantially more (5-10").
For those going to the Ice Bowl, you'll have to brush off your seats from the modest snowfall, and the snow on New Year's Day may actually have some lulls with drier air moving in aloft. Wind Chill will be noticeable, but the winds will pick up more toward evening--a good thing. Expect slick roads (especially secondaries ) to and from the Ralph.
More snow showers are likely on a Cold & Windy Wednesday, with temps probably not cracking 20. Thursday may still have lingering lt snow shwrs in the AM and flurries possible in the PM, but there may be a little sun to help with the deep freeze (trailing upper level trough exiting the region--not a clipper, lakeshadow). Pacific air takes over thereafter.
dp: so in your estimation Buffalo - SOuth should only have 2 inches of snow by game time or two inches of snow by Wednesday morning?
thanks
Don,
Any additional perspective to the questions I posed yesterday to MB about models?
As always, looking forward to your ideas
-Matt
Is it just me, or has WNY had a "snow event" every wknd for the past 3 or 4 wknds?... espically on Sundays! I find this kind of funny... we're having our winter on the weekends... and its been rather nice during the weeks... 5-10 inches of snow for N. Erie up through Niagara County... thats a good shot of snow!... Even though it will be in the mid 40's by next wknd!
Jim
Does the la nina mean that we have a snowier winter or just a warmer one than usual? With that said, how is the el nino different than la nina and with both of them finished by next winter, will next winter be more normal in terms of temps?
Don--
Will you be in tonight doing the 5-6pm news casts?
Chris--2" by gametime, with another couple possible late tom'w/tom'w night.
Matt--different models have different biases built into them related to which equations are used in each model. The cold bias to which MB refers is an unfortunately necessary bias to the physics "package" of the GFS, though that bias has been lessened by modelers' tweaking of the sets of equations.
The ETA has higher resolution than the GFS (more detail), but it does more poorly out beyond 60 hours. It also doesn't handle tropical cyclones very well.
There are lengthy technical papers written by a branch of NOAA/NWS on model performance and biases. There is no model any of us "prefer" on a day to day basis automatically. We have to look to how well each run of a model was "initialized," that is--how close to initial conditions the model is. If it's wrong at the outset, it can only go downhill from there.
The NGM is generally tossed these days, except for its statistical output on temperatures (MOS, or model output statistics), and even there it's inferior to newer models. It only continues to run because there are other nations with inferior data access who have requested it continues to be run--NWS would rather chuck it altogether, according to what I've heard at AMS conferences.
I don't have time to explain El Nino/La Nina right now, confused. You can read more about them on the Climate Prediction Center website. They are opposite phases of sea surface temperature pools of colder and warmer water in the tropical Pacific. Although they are "opposites" their effects are not opposite, as one might think. As for next winter, no one can predict this far in advance whether conditions will be neutral, el nino or la nina.
Lindsay works tonight. I'll be back Wednesday--have a Happy New Year!
ok thanks don.
hey don i need to know how much snow will west side of buffalo ny this whole event
thanks Ayuud
correction i meant to say how much snow are u predicting for the west side area of buffalo
thanks Ayuud
one interesting thing I saw in the NWS statement...
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY AND
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A PATTERN
THAT WILL RESULT IN A LONG PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AND DAY-TO-DAY
INCREASES IN TEMPERATURES. AT THIS
VANTAGE POINT...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS ON FRIDAY... THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE WEEKEND AS 850 MB TEMPS CONTINUE RISING TO
THE +4 TO +6C RANGE BY SUNDAY. FEEL THAT THE CURRENT GFS MOS
GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WARM UP VERY
WELL...SO HAVE AIMED ABOVE IT FOR
BOTH DAYS NEXT WEEKEND...CLOSER TO
THE MORE REALISTIC-LOOKING TEMPS ADVERTISED BY THE 00Z/30 ECMWF AND HPC
those conditions would seem favorable for unpredictable LES conditions.
happy new year!
;0P
that post with the NWS quote...I meant possible LES on Friday with the unstable air and temps still rebounding from the departing arctic air....
Also looks like there will be the steadiest snow for the n-towns and metro late New Years morning, when parties break up and people head home, not always in a good condition to drive. Please drink responsibly, everyone, get home safe for a healthy new year.
No lakeshadow, that's not what the NWS means--not cold enough aloft for les.
You're cherry-picking again....
Happy New Year
hey don how many snow will we get
i heard next week we will be in the 80s is that true
check the euro model and u will see
80's???? I have a hard time believing that.
Don,
Nice job on the NHL Network and your metric conversions. Sounds like we are going to have a great day tomorrow both tailgating and in the stadium. HAPPY NEW YEAR!! GO SABRES!!
i dont know what the NWS is going to do they are calling for 6-10 for buffalo and they didnt issuie anything
men that suxx!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Here we go yet again... another Sunday storm lol!
Rules for WNY snow storms:
- Snowstorm has to happen on a wknd or holiday.
- Needs to take place in prime time driving hours.
- add any if u can lol!
3-it has to be well advertised
Warning for north towns , watch for southtowns...Buffalo and Hamburg areas nothing , confused...
So Buffalo , Hamburg , OP are safe for now??
NWS is whacked out :
Hamburg:
New Year's Day: Periods of snow, mainly after 4pm. High near 36. Southeast wind 10 to 17 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Periods of snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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Buffalo:
New Year's Day: Periods of snow, mainly before 10am. High near 36. East wind 9 to 14 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Periods of snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
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OP :
New Year's Day: Periods of snow, mainly before 10am. High near 36. Southeast wind 9 to 16 mph becoming west. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Tuesday Night: Periods of snow, mainly before 4am. Low around 18. Blustery, with a north wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/
Nice Language, we all sure appreciate your class.
They did issue a winter storm warning..but not for Erie....sorry folks looks like another Niagara County event. I'll send you pics if u like.
That is some great language that could keep folks and kids away from the board....NICE and CLASSY!!!
Do you really need to use that kind of language??? It is certainly not needed!!!!! Maybe Erie County wont receive that much snow.. Move to Niagara County if you want the snow.
WOW..nice language.
Can someone please delete those comments with the F-bombs in them. It is not necessary and whoever posted them please do not come back.
it says on my weather bug for Hamburg a inch tonight, 2-4 to marrow, 3-6 tomarrow night. Guys we can all agree that the range is from 5-12 inches. The greatest chance of more snow is in niagra county but that dosnt mean to rule out anyother place. five inches is still a good amount of snow.Lets not get to worked up about this like the last storm maby thats why we dont get the snow we want. But i still dont understand why no whach or warning hasnt been isude???? Or even a advisory???? I gess wait and see but please dont use bad languge on here.remember its a privlage and can easily be taken away.Adam from Hamburg
Yes 80's are a possibility next week. And NWS is not issuing a Weather statement for Erie county due to Giambra leaving...Ostensibly..
Where have you gone Al from Buff News (Don's freind)..
Please keep in mind that both young adults like me and adults use this blog. Please be mindful of the language you use when posting to the Buffalo Weather Blog.
Thank you.
and btw still no weather advisory or warning yet
i think something fishy is going around
A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect for Niagara, Orleans and Genesee counties from 4pm Tue - 7pm Wed
A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and McKean counties from Tues AM - Wed Evening.
A potent arctic cold front will bring widespread snowfall and the coldest airmass of the winter season so far to WNY. Snow will begin some time after 3 AM tonight. We can expect about an inch of accumulation overnight. Snow will become more widespread Tuesday AM. Most will fall as all snow, but if there is any mixed precip it will be south of the metro and VERY brief. A lull in the precip will arive during the late morning/early afternoon (in time for the Ice Bowl) but don't let that fool you because much more is on the way for later. Snow will resume later Tues. afternoon. Daytime accumulations will be around 3-5inches. The heaviest snow in terms of intensity will arrive Tuesday night where additional accumulations are definite. Winds will also pick up so blowing & drifting snow will also occur. Lake enhancement will occur beginning Tues night and Wed. on a NW flow. Chaut, Catt and Orleans counties may see up to a foot of total accumulation by Wed evening (total 2 day accumulation.) Wed & Thurs will also be the coldest days of our young winter season so far with daytime highs around 20F.