Let's Get Another Storm Thread Going
The other one is simply too long.
At 2pm, drier air has moved into the srn tier, where little precip is falling. On the Niag Frontier, it now appears the moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue much of the time into this evening. Still calling for anther 3-6" on top of what's fallen between now and 8pm, with another couple of inches possible overnight after that. As previously posted, heaviest amts will be to the north of Buffalo, especially Niag & Orl Cos. I stand corrected on a Wellsville report I've been forwarding on this blog. The automated observation there appears to be faulty (it's showing 49 at 2pm), since no other readings in that region are anywhere near as mild--so you can toss that out.
Surface pressure at the Airport was down to 29.15" at 1pm--quite low and still falling, as the parent/interior low passes by so close to us, and the coastal low undergoes significant deepening.
NE winds will back to NW and increase to 15-30 (just look at the Cleveland broadcast), with some gusts to over 30, producing occ'l near whiteouts later today and tonight--especially in open country.
These 2 areas of low pressure are occurring in what we call the synoptic or larger scale. But we also have to watch much smaller scale (mesoscale) features within the storms' circulations. Last night, a synoptic scale warm jet occurred just off the surface as the low moved so far west of us.
This was a feature our Super Microcast and the NWS NAM models were indicating in their output. Obviously, we're no longer under the influence of that feature. Another clue last night as to how far the low was moving to our west would have been to check the pattern of barometric pressure falls out ahead of the low. Generally, the deeper falls in pressure occur in a corridor-of-sorts, and provide something of a path of least resistance for the low to follow. Pressure falls, of course, can't be plotted until the storm exists--so that kind of hand and computer analysis could not have been done Thursday. Even on Friday, with the embryonic system still showing little at the surface, it really couldn't be done in a way which would have benefited our local forecast needs.
At 2pm, drier air has moved into the srn tier, where little precip is falling. On the Niag Frontier, it now appears the moderate to occasionally heavy snow will continue much of the time into this evening. Still calling for anther 3-6" on top of what's fallen between now and 8pm, with another couple of inches possible overnight after that. As previously posted, heaviest amts will be to the north of Buffalo, especially Niag & Orl Cos. I stand corrected on a Wellsville report I've been forwarding on this blog. The automated observation there appears to be faulty (it's showing 49 at 2pm), since no other readings in that region are anywhere near as mild--so you can toss that out.
Surface pressure at the Airport was down to 29.15" at 1pm--quite low and still falling, as the parent/interior low passes by so close to us, and the coastal low undergoes significant deepening.
NE winds will back to NW and increase to 15-30 (just look at the Cleveland broadcast), with some gusts to over 30, producing occ'l near whiteouts later today and tonight--especially in open country.
These 2 areas of low pressure are occurring in what we call the synoptic or larger scale. But we also have to watch much smaller scale (mesoscale) features within the storms' circulations. Last night, a synoptic scale warm jet occurred just off the surface as the low moved so far west of us.
This was a feature our Super Microcast and the NWS NAM models were indicating in their output. Obviously, we're no longer under the influence of that feature. Another clue last night as to how far the low was moving to our west would have been to check the pattern of barometric pressure falls out ahead of the low. Generally, the deeper falls in pressure occur in a corridor-of-sorts, and provide something of a path of least resistance for the low to follow. Pressure falls, of course, can't be plotted until the storm exists--so that kind of hand and computer analysis could not have been done Thursday. Even on Friday, with the embryonic system still showing little at the surface, it really couldn't be done in a way which would have benefited our local forecast needs.
posted by Don Paul at
1:58 PM
82 Comments:
Do you think Orchard Park's conditions will get any worse? If so around what time? It's really not snowing that bad right now and I really wish it was.
More snow later and into the evening for OP, but not as much as Niag & Orl Cos. Some blowing snow, too.
Don please anwser me im despret. I went out side and took mesurements and every time i got around the 5 inch amount. I live in Hamburgh by athrol springs and its all snow. I see on the radar it looks like a heavy long bach of snow is coming. How much snow do U THINK i will recive by tomarrow morning?? One last thing do u think my/our schools will have school i know its early to tell but what do u think, And will al of us recive some whiteout conditions??? Your my first idol please comment back thanks:::)))
Thanks for starting the new thread...maybe the others wont discover it.
Its fun to watch this on the radar, I've been glued here since last night.
adam--I doubt your school will be closed, but I don't make that call.
Don can you possibly put accm. forcast on news 4 at 6? I mean like for the north towns and then the metro then the southtowns and the southerntier????? Im just requsting this becouse all of us are woundering how much more and the total snowfall were supposed to get for exact locations????
Thanks for taking the time to update us. It's a pity that there had to be some off color comments from others on that last thread. I'm sure I speak for most of the blog readers when I say thanks for putting in the hard work in this forecast. Of course no one can be 100% sure with weather, and I think WIVB tries hard to not go w/ scare tactics and remain conservative in forecasting.
In Amherst, it's lightly snowing right now. We probably have about 8 inches, but I haven't done any high-tech measurements.
No high tech necessary, amherst weather lover. A ruler is the way to go. Mary Beth had a simple tutorial on snow measuring in an older thread on this blog.
Thanks for the nice entries to you and so many others on behalf of all 4 of us at WeatherWatch 4!
Don im confused on the radar it says heavy snow for me but its only light snow idont understand???
Don-
You and everyone else have done such a great job forecasting this storm. You were not right on the money, however WIVB was the closest by far! I feel bad for MB and all the heat she took last night! She really... I mean really did a great job with this one!! She knew she was the only one going down the road she choose to go down, and in my mind, it was a good decision! So is it pretty much all "downhill" from here? (storm wise) How much snow would you think Amherst could get from now on? Let me be the first to tell you that Getzville has quite a bit of snow! When I measured it around 2pm... it was near 9"! I would have to say that we're now approaching the double digits for snowfall! Thank You all so much!!!
Yours Truly, Sean from Getzville
Never mind, now its moderite and of to the west its relley dark and coming right for me!!!!!cant wait till 6:::)))
The snowfall has lightened a bit here in Middleport....for now. :-)
Hope the winds don't get too bad here later on...is the hard wind supposed to be worse south and lighter north? I see a wind advisory for Potter and Mckean counties so am wondering.
Thanks for updates Don !!
Snow exstremly heavy in Hamburg
The Ch. 4 Team called it again. I love this website; the best way to stay "up to the minute" with all the changes in the weather. I have to say, while the winds hold off the street crews around us are doing a great job keeping the streets clear. It's still a good day to stay home and just watch the weather.
8 inches here in west side of buffalo and light snow is going on
Don, here in Jamestown at 4:10 PM huge gusts of wind are now bringing in our first really heavy snow. It's brutal. I am a snowspotter and it's been difficult to measure this with the water content and compression, even on my snow board. I have a feeling I will have snow to measure tonight :-) Thanks so much for the blog Don, ignore the negative contributors.
str
Don, hope you don't mind comments from across the border. Lots of weather fans watch CH 4 in the Toronto-Barrie area.
In Barrie, we also got hit with ice pellets for a period before it turned to all snow.
Can you explain why despite the strong winds in the forecast, it doesn't appear that a serious lake effect will set up in your area or off Georgian Bay. Environment Canada suggests some squall activity off Lake Huron, but nothing too serious.
Thanks for educating folks who appreciate the wonders of mother nature!
I'm here in Gowanda and its been hovering around 35 degrees here most of the day. It's nearing nightfall now and starting to snow harder, however, most of the day it was raining or doing nothing. Not much wind at this time.
NancySue
oops. Well one minute later in Gowanda and its gusty and snowing harder. Yayyyy
NancySue
Pls feel free to blog us some more snow totals, folks--if you decide to bundle up and measure.
Thanks--can't post much right now--working on the 6pm fcast.
there is light snow here in west side of buffalo but it is windy out there and the snow on the ground is blowing and creating whiteout conditions and as i type i see another band devepoling over dunkrick and one west of us so as the afternoon progresses travel will become dangerous across the area.
Stay Safe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Same here in Middleport Nancysue....winds were very quiet, then all of a sudden....whooosh !!
as for snow amounts don here in west side of buffalo i just measured 8.5 inches of snow
Stay Safe!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
oops, I don't think whooosh is a real weather term, pardon me >wink<
Snow totals in Jamestown for this storm from 5PM yesterday to know are approx. 8-9 inches. I am at about 1200 ft. elevation. There may be of course greater and lesser amounts in my area.
str
As of 4:45PM in northeastern Orchard Park, we have 7 inches, including the limited snow from last night.
-Matt
Measuring about 7-8 inches in Lancaster. Wind is really starting to pick up with snow blowing around.
I could just be in a bad spot but where I am in Lockport doesnt look that bad.We have snow but not what I expected.But then again,I havent ventured outside and have no ruler to measure.
From hamburg. blowing snow and snow. i mesured 10 spots and they rang from 5 1/2 to 7 inches but signiffigent blowing and drifting. id say we got 6 1/2 inches. very cold.
Approximately 2 inches of new snow in Fredonia as 0f 5:15 pm. The snow did not start until 3:30, before that it was mainly rain.
We have close to 13" in the Village of Lewiston...
[IMG]http://i14.tinypic.com/6x6urfa.jpg[/IMG]
Don-- Regarding Snowfall Amounts-
There is (as of 5:40pm) 11.2" of snow in Amherst (Getzville.) I was surprised to see that much snow here! Its still snowing, so Amherst... surprisingly may be one of the few areas to get about a foot of snow. Its not all that light ether!
- Sean from Getzville
Is there a chance of no school on Monday for Albion?
Don, Amherst has 12 inches exactly just to let you know!
Pendleton has 12.6 inches of snow at 5:45p!
-William
Don... I measured 11.8" of snow in Williamsville. This was taken at 530pm.
Thanks, Chris
Don when will our next cold down be please make your best estimant.
My spies in Lancaster tell me they have shoveled more than 8 inches by last "weather-stick" measurement. You guys and gals rock at Weather Watch 4! Thanks for your dedication and timely updates.
Bob
Early evening update: Most locations will see another 2" overnight, but up to 4" will be possible. Amounts will be higher in the higher terrain, especially near the Chautauqua Ridge. In the hills, up to 5 new inches could accumulate, and up to 5" will be possible closer to Lk Ontario. The steadier lt snow will diminish to snow shwrs late tonight, and lt snow shwrs will be scattered for the AM drive--though conditions will be somewhat improved by then.
NW winds will average 15 to 30, with some gusts to over 30, but stronger gusts are likely closer to and in PA, where a Wind Advisory is in effect for our PA counties.
thanks don but you said theres going to be a small worm uo but when will we see daytime temp. back in to the upper 20/ect.
here are the photos i took on my house
http://www.newstrackeronline.com/photos-zoom.php?ID=1603160
http://www.newstrackeronline.com/photos-zoom.php?ID=1603155
http://www.newstrackeronline.com/photos-zoom.php?ID=1603153
don paul can u show them on the air on news 4 at 10 or 11 plz don.
Don and Company,
West Seneca recieved about 11.6" to 12.7" So its a safe bet at 12" is where it ended up. Also When will the cool down start?
Thanks,
Chris
Ayuud your pics are very blurry and i would snap some more if you want them to be news worthy.
Weather Watch 4—
WIVB did an awesome job with the storm coverage on the 6pm news cast!!! It was nice to see Don and MB double teaming this storm! I think that Mary Beth should win some sort of an award for her "winning" forecast! So many people got upset when they saw her forecast of the upcoming storm, and she took a lot of heat! Too much in my mind. I feel bad that she had to go through that! As always, she pulled through, and won in the long run! THANK YOU MARY BETH!! Don, MB, Mike, and Lindsay... You guys work so well together, and WNY made it through this storm because of you all!!! Me saying you guys did a great job would truly be an understatement!! I think WIVB is really going to see their ratings spike due to (in big part) Don, MB, Mike, and Lindsay's great forecasting! There really is NO OTHER weather team in WNY... or probably the world as good and skilled as you four are… I think I can speak for all of WNY for that one! I also think that “ayuud”… who seems to be your #1 poster is too funny! He was running his own little coverage of this storm, and I believe, for a one man team, he did a great job! I guess him and I both want to become a WIVB meteorologist one day! He was there to back WIVB up 100% all the way through… I know he sometimes gets criticized because he’s an “excited high school student” who try’s to make his own forecast… he WILL defiantly make it one day, I can just tell!! I think it would be nice of you (Don) to post a little “thank you” to him! He is such a nice kid who really has the heart to become you one day… as I do too : ) This blog is one of the best ideas for weather lovers, and just wait and see how long it takes until this starts popping up on other WNY stations cites… however I can tell you now that it will by no means be as successful as WIVB’s! P.S. Don I noticed you put my snowfall total that I gave you for Getzville on the 6pm news cast, that ment a lot to me :)!
Thank you all once again- you have a viewer for life! (until I get a job at WIVB lol)
-Sean from Getzville
So all in all, a good shot....certainly not a paralyzing blizzard that some were hoping for, and not a dud that some had thought was going to happen as of this morning...I'll say it again, guys...our best chance for a historic storm or a "whopper" as Don likes to say, is always lake effect....just look at your history...unfortunately, the lake is going to freeze up earlier this year than it has in the most recent previous years, so our chance at a huge lake effect event for the metro area is running out of time...perhaps Don could give us some expert analysis as to when he thinks Lake Erie will be frozen over...it's been a fun 4 days on the blog....see you for the next "biggie"!!
I think once this storm is done with WNY, our next focus point in the weather department is “Will we have a white Christmas?”
thanx sean for ur kind words that meant alot to me and i agree with u mery beth and don paul and the other news 4 metroligist should get some kinda of award for their accurate snowfall especially mery beth which got a lot of heat last night for her forecast and guess what she won and the others lost booooo!! and i want to know if the schools will be closed tommorow or not as weather conditions on monday morning
Stay Safe And Warm!!!!!!!!!
Evening Greetings, Bloggers! Well, it's been one heck of an interesting storm! Thanks a bunch 4 your kudos. I mentioned on the 6pm show the reasons why I downgraded the big snow totals. Here's 3 reasons: a. warmer air drawn into the storm which would produce a morning wintry mix...keeps snow totals down. b. dry slots showing up on radar last night south of our viewing air...lessens the persistence and intensity of precip...based on our position between a double-barreled low. c. often-times when a the coastal low develops and deepens, it "robs" moisture away from the previous low which affected us. Still tonight, we're continuing with wrap-around snowfall in the commahead that's slowly pulling away from the viewing area. Mainly light showers will continue, with gusty nw winds creating blowing and drifting. Obviously, Don's got the full update tonight at 10 and 11. Stay warm...it's a nasty wind chill tonight!
Mary Beth- Thank You, Thank You So much... next time all of WNY will DEFF be on your side with your forecasting!!! You shouldnt have had all the "heat" that you had, over your forecasting! You did a great job!
-Sean :)
Does anyone expect OP to get a snowday tomorrow. I know you guys don't make that call, but can you please give me your opinion? It's not snowing that hard now and it's really disappointing me. Is more heavy snow coming tonight for OP?
snowday, you're right--we don't make that call. But if I HAD to guess, I'd guess you're going to school tomorrow....
Sean, no need to thank me. That's my job. And no sweat about the heat. I understand that among a lot of weather gurus, perhaps I "bucked the system" by lowering the totals significantly. But I had reasons, and I felt very confident with my call. Still, travel remains tricky to difficult in parts of WNY tonight. I give big kudos to the snow plows..they're doing a terrific job clearing the snow. This town has by far the best snow removal team. Other big cities look up to our crews! Big cheers go out to them for their service!
I would have to agree regarding the scope, depth and comprehensive coverage at 6pm being the best in WNY tonight. I'll admit to flipping just a tad... but when someone down the dial tries to pawn off some youngster standing in Niagara Falls for 2 minutes or more telling us how bad it was without showing any pictures and then sending it to a co-worker doing a fake live shot recorded during the daylight hours I quickly was reminded why News 4 and Weather Watch 4 are still the team to beat! Thanks for the early warning, pretty accurate forecasting and true dedication to your craft and western new york. You folks are the best!
Lancaster Lenny
Well Im not going to take back the "thank you's" haha :)... I know its your job, I know the "heat" is to be expected sometimes. You flat out did a good job calling it! Its meteorologists like you that set the standards for WNY!
-Sean
What a great storm, it had certainly given the city something to distract them from the Bills... :o( at the very least, anyways. And this is good snowman building stuff. I say weather bloggers, go build your snowmen and send your pictures to newscaster and Don and the gang will pick the best ones to show on air.
What'do ya say??
I'm gonna build mine tomorrow!
BTW...maybe 7" in s. Cheektowaga...hard to tell with drifts.
im so tired i guess if there is school tommorow i wont go and please god let james williams cancel the public schools tommorow
NWS reports a storm total of 11.9" as of 9pm.
ayuud... haha you prob will have school... and if you want to be a meteorologist like your idols, you better go to school! Just a friendly tip :)
By the way, some of you may want to check out my White Christmas chances update on that thread.
BTW... good job on the 6pm news cast tonight MB! You just hit the camera with the snowball... good aim! It was funny!
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How much worse is it suppose to get in Orleans County?
For all of you New Yorker Students like me, here is a friendly list that WIVB has prepared for everyone to let us know what is closed. http://wivb.images.worldnow.com/Images/incoming/close.html#SCHOOLS
Looks as Me Might not have School Tomorrow, Roads not plowed.
Thanks,
Josh
Hey M.B. and Don, as far as the modals go, when do u think these modorating temp. will last for???. I whached news 4 at ten and u said the temp.s will drop around christmass will it be a persistnt cold or what. whats your best estamint???? do u see any signs of lake effect snow or anything i now its far out but what do u think???thanks and i always stuck with your forcasts and you guys deffinitly have the best forcasts always ive been whaching you guys scince i was 4 and i learned a lot from u.Thanks and also i learned all the other channals are jokes.
I would like to thank all the plowjockeys in my hood. But i still feel we are losing the war on snow.
Lake snows are still going on in michigan,that means we will still see snows in the buffalo area for a while more. GOOD! Keep it going!
Darn! I have school today.
Yikes! People are pretty hard-core about this stuff! I grew up in a part of West Virginia where snow like this was rare, and three inches would close school for 2 days.
Here's a recap from the holy city of Depew:
4-5 inches Saturday night, followed by sleet/freezing rain predawn Sunday. Changeover to snow around 9am Sunday, snow in varying intensity throughout the day, heaviest between 2-5pm. Lighter snow after dark, with wind/blowing snow overnight. I saw very light snow ending when I got up at 5:45am today. It looks like we got a total of approximately 12-13 inches about 2 miles S of the airport. Ran the snowblower and got to work 5 minutes early. *Sigh*...so it goes in Buffalo.
After watching yesterday's Wakeup, I thought the mixed precip would go until around noon, so I was surprised at the 9am changeover. Other than that, it apepars Channel 4 had a pretty good handle on the storm.
Next time make Cejka stand outside with the yardstick!
time to start a new thread to talk about the next weeks' weather. looks like another interesting weekend coming upon us...
I was about to make that same point...one met from Accu-Weather is saying that the 3rd of 3 west coast storms has a similar makeup to the one that hit us this weekend...not quite sure of the timing of this one...although the early look seems to show at least some precipitation for next weekend and into the Christmas holiday...could Mike, MB or whoever is around today possibly start a new thread and address this?...I know Don is updating the "White Christmas" thread everyday, but this seems to be an individual scenario on its own...no rest for the weather lovers!!!
most of the sites are saying Rain/Freezin Rain/ or Snow. for that next weekend storm "if there is one". Its WAYYYYY to early to even know about this one tho.
Next weekend does NOT look similar to this past weekend. I don't really want to be in the position of jousting with AccuWeather on this blog.
The next deep storm system will be approaching from the northern, not southern, plains during the weekend and will likely bring us a good amount of warming before its cold front passes through. There are mixed signals as to whether or not the snow showers in its wake for Christmas Eve will just be "small potatoes" activity, or get organized into lake effect with sufficiently cold air. This morning's run of the GFS doesn't look terrific for anything serious, but another global model, the European, is a little more impressive with next Monday's cold advection.
I guess we just have to take it day by day and see how things go. When are we going to get a SW in here! GOSH! always seems to be a W or NW wind. Lets finally get some big lake snows in buffalo for once before the lake freezes over.
haha don we didnt have school today i just wake up and i was calling my school and they said there was no school today
The Buffalo News has done it again--sort of--on their Weather Blog, which doesn't seem to be visited very often, based on its palty number of comments.
They've painted all the prestorm forecasts with the same broad brush, as if we all forecast 15-20" of snow.
Of course, anyone who viewed our WeatherWatch 4 weather segments prior to the storm or visted this blog knows that our forecast, while imperfect, was considerably closer to what actually occurred than others'.
Oh, well....
I guess we did get the 12inches of snow that everyone was talking about. If the storm was to be what we all thought before,we would have ALOT more then 12inches.
IF it would of stayed snowing over night on sunday morning and not change over to a mix,we would of had ALOT more snow. One thing we can thank right now for geting 12inches is Lake Ontario. If that lake wasnt there,there would be ALOT of mad people here. Lake erie helped out also when the wind changed over a west side and got us out of almost hiting another dry spot. Lucky we have the lakes!
even im suprised when we got 13 inches here in west side of buffalo at first everything was ok and the storm totals were 18+ by that time i had some confidence that this storm totals will bust and then comes saturday and the nam model was showing the warm air but i just keep ignoring it and i started looking at the gfs which was cold and which everyone was following it except news 4 metroligists which they kept saying the could be a mix which would cut the accumalation to 10-14 and still the other people were forecasting 15-24 and only don was forecasting lower amount and saturday night things got ugly the models showing warm air but still other people didnt belive it and here comes mery beth which forecasted 4-12 and i was way too disaapoointed at that time but i knew she was saying the truth but last night her forecast was the best we got about 12.5 here in buffalo.
WHEATFIELD GOT OVER 15 INCHES OF SNOW!!! :) WHAT A GREAT DAY FOR SNOW LOVERS UP IN NIAGARA COUNTY SUNDAY WAS! IT STARTED EARLY, THEN WENT INTO A LULL, THEN WENT HARD AGAIN, IN A LULL, AND THEN MROE HEAVY SNOW. IT WAS SWEET! EXCEPT THAT THE ICE IN THE MORNING KEPT DOWN MAX ACCUMULATIONS :( O WELL WE GOT MORE SNOW THAN ANYONE ELSE SO I WON'T COMPLAIN OR BE SELFISH!
I'm on the bandwagon with Don about next weekend. In no way does it appear to be similar to this past weekend's storm. BTW, no two storms are alike, and this one has much more significant warming out ahead of it.
has anybody taking the time to remind your viewers of the potential danger to pets outside?? Have not heard one comment about this ...sad! Please do not forget the unfortunate pets outside in this bitter cold and wind. Thank-you!
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