Mixed Bag for WNY; Bomb for East Coast?
Tuesday afternoon & evening's precip looks to be mostly liquid, with just a bit of snow at the end. But Thursday will be a different matter. Over the weekend, it appeared a storm system going by to our south on Thursday would bring us mixed precipitation; newer model runs now suggest the cold air will have sufficient depth to allow a mostly snow for WNY, though some sleet and freezing rain could still mix in--especially over the srn tier/nrn PA. Even so, this doesn't currently look to be shaping up as a big snowfall. Heavier precipitation will be falling to the south, with PA the focal point. Some lake effect snow will follow by Friday in this storm system's wake. There may be a brief period of WSW or SW winds late Friday night to bring a bit of lake snow closer to the metro area. On Friday, though, an "Alberta Clipper" low will pass to our north. While these systems can produce some general (synoptic scale) snow, the circulation ahead of such a system often disrupts the alignment of low level winds with wind shear, breaking up organized lake effect for a while. Once the Clipper goes by, winds will veer to W or WNW and, as has been the case all this season so far, that will take us back to multiple bands of lake snow away from the metro area.
During the weekend, 2 global computer models (the GFS from the NWS, and the ECMWF from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) point to a strong wave moving off the Atlantic seaboard and exploding into a "bomb" of a nor'easter for cities like NYC and Boston--though there could be a change to rain for awhile. Currently, the models take this storm too far to our east for it to have a direct impact on our weather, but a later adjustment in its projected path to the west/inland, could paint an entirely different picture--snow and wind for us, and rain & wind for the east coast. Right now, there is no indication of that happening. As always, we'll keep you updated if there's a change.
SPEAKING OF UPDATES, I'll continue to update the White Christmas Chances thread on a daily basis this week as well.
During the weekend, 2 global computer models (the GFS from the NWS, and the ECMWF from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting) point to a strong wave moving off the Atlantic seaboard and exploding into a "bomb" of a nor'easter for cities like NYC and Boston--though there could be a change to rain for awhile. Currently, the models take this storm too far to our east for it to have a direct impact on our weather, but a later adjustment in its projected path to the west/inland, could paint an entirely different picture--snow and wind for us, and rain & wind for the east coast. Right now, there is no indication of that happening. As always, we'll keep you updated if there's a change.
SPEAKING OF UPDATES, I'll continue to update the White Christmas Chances thread on a daily basis this week as well.
posted by Don Paul at
9:34 PM
45 Comments:
I suppose snow would be better than sleet and freezing rain. How much snow do you think will fall on the Niagara Frontier? I would have to think that what snow we do get from now until Christmas should probably stick around to make for a white Christmas… would you agree? How are the long range models looking? I would have to think we’re somewhat due for one of our typical snow storms soon. No signs of lake effect snow shifting north to reach the northern suburbs? Thank you for doing such a great job keeping us updated via the weather blog!!
-Sean from Getzville
Sean--Still too early to get too specific about Thursday, except it won't be a whopper. I've got a discussion on White Christmas chances back on that thread, which I just updated this evening. No consistent cold, so it's problematical on any timing.
No sign right now of any significant lake snow in the nrn suburbs, though that clipper might give 'em a brief brush.
And just to add to the December potpourri, at 10pm tonight, the National Hurricane Ctr upgraded a strong low pressure system to Subtropical Storm Olga, just north of Puerto Rico. This storm will bring possible flash flooding and mudslides to Haiti and the Dominican Republic, with slight strengthening possible before upper level wind shear weakens Olga later in the week.
GFS shows nor'easter impacting our region on Sunday night. (5.5 days)
I've noticed that more conservative forecasters are beginning to address this as a possible major storm for the NE. certainly something to watch closely.
Thanks for your work.
What website do you find the forecast models at? The NWS website has them, but where do you click to find out the direction in which storms are moving? How much snow are we talking about Thursday, Graphical 2-d on the NWS shows around .30 of rain equivalent. So maybe 3-6 inches of snow, possibly more in the southern Tier? And Thurs. Night to Friday morning any chance of a few hours of LES for Metro? What impact will the storm heading up the east coast have on our weather?
Thanks!
Don,I hear that the nor'easter that is supposed to hit this sunday may slide quite a few miles west,(as you said could happen) giving us a more substancial part of the storm. How do you see it as of today? (tuesday)
Through the years I've learned not to get excited about east coast storms. They generally don't seem to impact us that much. It seems like Central New York usually is about as far west as the good stuff gets.I do remember one time we got a nice N.E. fetch off lake Ontario during a Nor' Easter that gave us a good dump. I'm not going to lose sleep over this one. I've done that before only to be dissapointed and tired ! LOL
Nick isn't too far off in his assessment, as far as climatology goes. First things first-Thursday's system will be passing a bit more to the south, so the best chance for a few inches will be closer to the state line. One NWS model has the Niag Frontier getting virtually nothing--another gives us a bit more. Whatever we get--and it won't be big-it will be all snow.
As for the major storm I first addressed Monday night, this morning's model runs do change the picture. The ECMWF (European)and Canadian GEM bring an initial storm system closer to the Tenn. Valley, with an extended trough toward WNY. That would allow snow to reach our region later Saturday night into Sunday, before the coastal "bomb" takes over and sweeps most of the moisture to the east. The GFS also takes a more westerly track, which would bring some snow into WNY Saturday night, with greatest amounts to the SE of the metro area. So far, there is still no indication of us taking the brunt of this storm, but it's going to be interesting. These new modeled storm tracks bring more rain to Boston & NY, with the greatest snowfall from the interior of upstate NY into northern & western New England.
Lake potential on Friday is limited, and the Niag Frontier will likely see nothing more than snow showers, with the modest lake snow more likely Well South again. Very cold weekend coming up, regardless of snow....
So...it sounds like not much snow from any of these storms--not Thursday, not LES on Friday, and not really from the NE storm. I'm still waiting for a good snowstorm in time for Christmas!
-Amherst Weather-lover
I read the forecast discussion on the NWS, they talked about a changeover tonight into tomorrow morning and quick burst of snow they make leave a quick inch or two. Then clear out for a cold weds. Thurs. a storm system will pass to our south bringing a general snowfall for all, possibly advisory level for the southern Tier. All will get a few inches Thurs, and will be an all snow event. Lake Effect sets up northeast of the lakes after this storm goes through Thurs. night into friday morning. Temps alot colder which will produce a fluffier snow, then the LES moves south as winds back to West then WNW friday night. Still some questions up for the storm on sat. night and sunday. Noreaster possibly? Not sure how it will affect us? Long term looks colder then normal according to the NWS. So white x-mas looks good im thinking.
Thanks!
All of these things that yo are saying contradict everything that I have heard. On the NOAA weather website, they are calling for ACCUMULATING snow for the ENTIRE area, and so is accuweather.com. It won't be a huge storm but they are saying that a few inches will be in order. And then, THE BIG ONE. Now I quote this directly from the NOAA website:
"AN EAST COAST STORM IS THEN POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM...BUT THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT...POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED
BY STRONG WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK."
How about them apples? Again, we better get a real big storm cuz every time it seems like we will, we never do.
More proof:
"THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY."
:)
I know, I dont understand. That's all im hearing to. The noon forecast and when I called Channel 4 weather line said we will barely get brushed on Thursday. But the NWS is saying a few inches at least for all, more in Southern Tier. The graphical 2-d shows .20 to .35 rain amount which should mean 2-4 possibly 3-6 inches in southern Tier on thurs. Then LES thurs. night into friday morning for the Metro area. Then brief respite then huge storm sat. night into sunday. Now that storm is highly uncertain at this time. Usually those storms just brush us, but you never know if it tracks a little bit west we could get a big storm. HOPEFULLY!!
FROM NWS:
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF FRONTAL WAVES APPROACHES THE REGION
THURSDAY. THE LOW CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA, WITH AIR COLD
ENOUGH FOR JUST SNOW. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL FOR
POSSIBLE ADVISORIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. STAY TUNED.
COLDER AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL AGAIN ESTABLISH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
BANDS...THIS TIME THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WILL BRING THE
LAKE SNOWS CLOSER TO THE BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN AREAS. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN ON WEDNESDAY AND LAKE SNOWS WILL BE
FLUFFIER...THUS SNOW AMOUNT HAS BEEN BUMPED UP FOR THE TUG HILL
REGION. LAKE SNOW BANDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN
AS DRIER BOUNDARY AIRMASS FILTERS ACROSS THE LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE
SUPPRESSES THE LAKE EFFECT.
I have doubts we'll see accumulating snow across the Niagara Frontier on Thursday, though it's a possibility. Both one NWS model and our Super Microcast and Future Watch models show that system brushing us, with the best chance for minor accumulations (2-3") near the state line. The NWS model (called the NAM), in fact, shows virtually nothing on Thursday close to the metro area. Another lower resolution model (which has been more reliable on largescale events) does have snow reaching the Niagara Frontier, but not very much.
Apparently, some of you are missing the KEY phrase in an NWS discussion in all caps: "THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS STORM", referring to the weekend cyclone.
I called attention to this system last night, and my early impressions are what I'd posted earlier. But wishful thinking has not the slightest thing to do with forecasting accurately. If you miss the uncertainty, you can bet your ____ you'll miss the forecast.
I dont understand why a collection of meteorologist at the NWS would bring that out in the forecast discussion. Thurs. is 2 days away the probability of the precip is 80%+ of a general few inch. snowfall, followed by lake effect for a time over metro. Theres uncertainty on the major storm over the weekend, not those 2 storms. It makes no sense they would talk about snow on thurs, and LES on thurs night and fri. when the models say otherwise. Does NWS and channel 4 have different models?
Hey Don. Im a big weather fan and injoy waching all of your shows. I have a qustion. I live in Hamburg/ a mile or so away from Frontier High School.When you say a winter storm worning for Southern Erie dose that include me. (If not what am i considerd in ???). Sometimes the lake snow reaches my house but if you go to Buffalo there will hardley be anything????? Thanks for your forcasts. Keep me up to date on any snow related storms and especully this upcoming weekend with the possible Nor' Easter.-from 12 year old in Hamburg.
To the last anonymous: Weather is not something that clicks together like Leggo blocks. It is, of course, an inexact science. 2 meteorologists can easily interpret the many sets of data we have differently. For myself, I would not have placed an 80% probability for the Niagara Frontier on Thursday. There is nearly always some degree of uncertainty, and based on the uncertainty in model forecasts for this minor system, 80% is projecting too much certainty at this point that far north. Wellsville--80%. Buffalo--I'd go closer to 50 or 60% (of measurable snow). And, yes, there are 2 models we have which the NWS doesn't have, both of which keep the measurable snow further south. But there is also the NWS NAM model I already mentioned which projects virtually nothing for the Niagara Frontier.
I'm not saying "I'm right, and they're wrong." My friends and colleagues at the NWS may be on the right track, and I may not be. I'm saying this is the solution I've derived from the data as of late this afternoon, and it's similar to that drawn by longtime veteran Mike Cejka, who works our earlier shift.
This is one of the reasons why WIVB features professional meteorologists on each and every weather segment, which is unique in WNY television. We try to tailor the forecasts to the needs of our viewing audience (but we don't differ with the NWS just to be different--that's lousy science!).
Finally, on another point, while there is more collaberation at the NWS in many cases, where the rubber meets the road, there's one met responsible for the near term forecast, just like there is here.
I'm in touch with Mike Cejka's forecast before I come in, and for the sake of continuity, one shift tries to be as consistent--based on available data-as possible with the preceding shift.
You can't predict the weather that far ahead and be really sure of the forecast. The waether can change at any time or day. The closer the day, the more certainy of a strom.
Anyway, I'm hoping that WYN will get some snow from the system this weekend. If not, well, there's still time. The winter season hasn't even started yet.
Also, not really about the topic, but does anyone remember last years ice strom in Niagara county?
I remember playing board games because there was no power and then suddenly there was a noise and one of the trees split in half.
Debate is fun , but it seems some people want to overshadow or try to prove the WIVB meteorologists wrong..
I to want a Decent storm just not Monday Dec17th ( taking kids to wrestling)
Thanks for making it interesting..
Not trying to prove them wrong, Just asking questions on why so many different stations and NWS contradict one another, makes no sense to me. Don explained it fairly well. Every station tells you something different and even the NWS tells you something different. Who to believe? Not long ago Channel 4 was talking about becoming warm next week. Now its going to be cold most of next week. So hard to know which station to watch, even the team of meterologist at NWS contradict with all 3 stations. Im just going to start predicting my own weather. lol!
still the sunday nor'easter track is west
don what u think?
Actually, the NWS extended range model still shows moderating temperatures beginning later next week. The main reason the cold air is going to hang in 1-2 days longer than the previous extended outlooks is because of the expected amplitude of the weekend storm--shaking up the atmosphere in its wake for a couple of days.
As for which station to watch, that's your call--though there are certainly large differences in the backgrounds of the station weather staffs (self-serving hint!).
Love the Weather Blog Don. From the looks of it you do have your hands full from time to time with the Armchair Meteorologists...lol. Just wanted to give you an update from the airport. Someone digging with a backhoe by accident cut some communication lines. These einsteins cut the radar line to NWS and our ASOS line for our hourly weather reports. Don't know if this affects you at all, but just wanted to let you know. No ETA on getting either lines repaired. Keep up the good work...
Rick Davis
FAA Meteorologist
Haha I took a tour with my college communication and media arts class of WGRZ and their weather center… or lack of. There’s three computers, yep only three… and what I find funny is the TV that sits on the desk with the Weather Channel on. Should the weather channel have any influence on a local meteorologists forecast for WNY? I wouldn’t think so… they should be able to come up with their own forecasts… now I’m not in fact saying this is what goes on… just making an observation! I know WIVB has quite a few more computers than the others… and the fact that all WIVB meteorologists are real certified meteorologists, and not just a person who “looks good” telling the weather… that should be the bottom line reason why someone would turn to weather watch4! I know it is one of the reasons why I watch 4. WIVB is a step ahead of the rest, and always have been. Keep up the good work Don and company!
Thanks, Rick. We have not been hit with the effects of that outage, fortunately. Our Level II Nexrad data is still streaming in, too.
Last anonymous: I can't say I watch the Weather Channel much these days, for a number of reasons, and it's not on in our weather center--but I wouldn't draw a conclusion based on that. Back in the days before I had a PC at home, I used to watch quite a bit at home just to see the satellite and radar imagery, if nothing else. I'm still good friends with Mike Seidel and a few other longtime mets there, but those with the real expertise just don't seem to be around enough. They also used to repeat the NWS zone forecasts in Weather on the 8s, but now they use a partially computer generated forecast which I personally find to be inferior.
Late evening update: Looks like enough sleet, then snow to make for slick rds in the AM drive, but not much accumulation. Thursday's system still looks weak and too far south to do much. One NWS model shows very little for the Niagara Frontier, and another shows a couple of inches worth. I've gone for Lt Snow reaching the Niag Frontier, with minor accum possible, and 2-3" more likely closer to PA. There may be a bit of lake snow later Thursday night with a flow out of 250 degrees bringing it to near Buffalo. But winds will quickly veer to WNW by Friday, so the lake snow--if it develops--won't stay long.
Now--for the "Big Storm:" All global models except one generated by the Navy Fleet Forecasting Ctr still show a major storm taking shape this weekend. The main center will move well south of us and then deepen dramatically off the middle Atlantic seaboard. But in that transfer of energy into a coastal secondary, the interior "parent" low will send a trough of low pressure up into our region. Tonight's guidance points to some accumulating snow becoming more likely from late Saturday into Sunday morning, with several inches likely, along with a cold, brisk easterly wind. Putting together the projected tracks from the operational GFS (NWS), European, & Canadian models (and tossing out for the time being the Navy NOGAPS model which is an "outlier" with a radically different solution of moving the storm several hundred miles east of Cape Cod before it deepens), I can't say there is a clearcut sign of the brunt of this double barreled storm system hitting us. Further track adjustments may change my mind on this, but for now I'll venture a "first guess" of light to moderate snow, with some limited blowing and drifting. Temperatures will be rather cold, so the snow should have a powdery consistency.
The ultimate cliche: Stay tuned.
Well, I know this storm is by no means carved in stone for WNY, but it sounds like it has the potential to be our first “big one” of the young winter season!?? We’ll all have to wait and watch the models over the next few days to see how much this storm will affect WNY, if it does at all.
-Sean in Getzville
To "Anonymous"
It would be easier to identify contributors if you'd just type in a "nickname" when you send your comment. There are so many people contributing as "anonymous" that it's confusing.
Sean,
Just so I'm clear on this, right now it doesn't look like the "big one." That could still change with a further westward adjustment in the storm track, but for now "big one" is not a phrase I'm using for our viewing area.
This may be a bit off-topic, but I'm curious as to how much higher-level math/science skills are needed in meteorology. In a previous thread, Don mentioned calculus. Can I assume that physics and chemistry are also involved? What about thermodynamics? These things just pop into my head, I can't help it. :)
Don,
When is the last time we had to deal with the potential for a blizzard? It seems like a really long time ago! Sorry, I love winter storms and was just wondering.
Cesna
Hi Marshall�My curriculum consisted of 4 semesters of calculus (1 pre), 1 of differential equations, 1 semester of probability/statistics, 2 of calc-based physics, 2 organic chem., and Fortran programming. First couple years were largely operational forecasting and the last two theoretical in the met. program at Lyndon State College. It was during the theoretical meteorology that we delved into the thermodynamics.
I have to admit that I use very little of the high-level math today, however, having some background on how the supercomputers in DC generate daily forecast guidance, provides a much greater understanding of the atmosphere and how it works...it's not just a throw of a dart. That guidance is the basis for our forecast.
Sometimes people are baffled by forecast errors given all of this technology, but keep in mind that these computers are modeling the atmosphere. Given the immensity of it, and given the present limitations of computer technology, it is still virtually impossible to model every square inch. As computer technology continues to advance this should only improve with time.
Cesna, Last widespread blizzard seems to be back in 1985. There have been more localized/temporary blizzard and blizzard-like conditions since, but that is the last one that stands out.
Mike and Cesna,
It's rare that my memory clicks correctly, but there also was the Blizzard of 1993. That was the system dubbed "Storm of the Century" by the national press and,indeed, it resulted in numerous record low barometric pressure readings in the east. The NWS made an effort to coordinate blizzard warnings, which were issued all the way from the northern Gulf states (even Atlanta issued its first blizzard warning) up through Maine. The coordination also resulted in the Buffalo NWS going along with the blizzard warning. In reality, though, we turned out to be a little too far west for true blizzard conditions. We received 17 inches, but our average windspeeds didn't really meet blizzard criteria. Syracuse, on the other hand, got 42" with stronger winds. That storm really was a roaring blizzard--just not quite for us. In its early stage, developing over the Gulf, it also produced a terrible severe weather outbreak in west central Florida in its warm sector.
Quick update on the weekend...I'm still pretty much in sync with Don on this. Latest models are indicating, initial storm coming up from the southwest toward Ohio Valley later Saturday and then explosive redevelopment along the east coast Sunday. It's a classic set-up with strong blocking high NE of the developing east coast storm.
There is an indication of surface troughing extending northward into the eastern Great Lakes as the initial center moves to the Ohio Valley...I'm quite sure that will produce at least some measurable snowfall here Saturday night into early Sunday before the east-coast bomb robs moisture from our area. Should be an interesting weekend in New England!
Quite the rapid fire change this AM;
the NWS model which yesterday was projecting almost no measurable snow on the Niagara Frontier has done an about face, and a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for srn Erie, Wyoming & the srn tier counties for tomorrow.
Details to follow....
i dont know why the winter storm watch was not issued for the metro area because the 12z gfs and nam are showing the storm precip as far north in buffalo
don can u tell me why? or is it like distance or what im confused help me out......
Ayuud
Precip. may reach the Buffalo metro but amounts will not be as great as the So. Tier/No. PA
The models are showing snowfall amounts that don't reach Winter Storm Watch/Warning criteria that far north, Ayuud. Nothing to be confused about.
what model are using mike for this storm because gfs show about 0.25-0.50 qpf in all wny except futher north (niagra falls....)
i wonder...................................................
Mike, thanks for the response! I've always struggled with math, and am amazed that anyone can master that stuff!
I guess this morning's weather developments are case in point that, no matter how good your computers are, there's a higher power calling the shots! :)
NYZ001>006-008-010-011-132315-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
605 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
SNOW ADVISORY.
A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PROJECT THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WINTER STORM OR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED REGARDING THIS STORM AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
what do u think don?
Don,
Thanks for answering my post about a white Christmas--I will continue to monitor that thread. I will take old grey snow any day over green grass! Thanks for the great job you do.
The snow is falling faster than you can shovel it up... Nice to know we are going to have a White Christmas!!
Oh, YES, i remember that ice storm. It was so bad, all the cars were covered in a THICK layer of ice, and i was nearly stranded in my house all day. But the really cool thing about the ice is when the sun came out in the next few days. it just made the trees glisten. it was one of the coolest sights i have ever seen, and i really wish i took a picture of it.
and ok, from now on, ill make my name "weatherfreak" again, i just like going anonymous once in a while. but i cant wait to see what happens this weekend, it looks as if the worst of the storm is inching ever so close to us and by the weekend, BOOM! we might be in for something real bad (which i actually find real enjoyable! :) ).
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