More Wintry Weather on the way...
A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect for Niagara, Orleans and Genesee counties from 4pm Tue - 7pm Wed.
A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and McKean counties from Tues AM - Wed Evening.
A potent arctic cold front will bring widespread snowfall and the coldest airmass of the winter season so far to WNY. Snow will begin some time after 3 AM tonight. We can expect about an inch of accumulation overnight. Snow will become more widespread Tuesday AM. Most of the precip will fall as snow, but if there is any mixed precip it will be south of the metro and VERY brief. A lull in the precip will arive during the late morning/early afternoon (in time for the Ice Bowl) but don't let that fool you because much more is on the way for later. Snow will resume later Tues. afternoon with daytime accumulations around 3-5inches. The heaviest snow in terms of intensity will arrive Tuesday night with additional accumulations. Winds will also pick up so blowing & drifting snow will also occur. The Lake Effect Machine will turn on Tues night and Wed. on a NW flow. Chaut, Catt and Orleans counties may see up to a foot of total accumulation by Wed evening (total 2 day accumulation.) Wed & Thurs will be the coldest days of our young winter season so far with daytime highs around 20F.
A Winter Storm WATCH is in effect for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and McKean counties from Tues AM - Wed Evening.
A potent arctic cold front will bring widespread snowfall and the coldest airmass of the winter season so far to WNY. Snow will begin some time after 3 AM tonight. We can expect about an inch of accumulation overnight. Snow will become more widespread Tuesday AM. Most of the precip will fall as snow, but if there is any mixed precip it will be south of the metro and VERY brief. A lull in the precip will arive during the late morning/early afternoon (in time for the Ice Bowl) but don't let that fool you because much more is on the way for later. Snow will resume later Tues. afternoon with daytime accumulations around 3-5inches. The heaviest snow in terms of intensity will arrive Tuesday night with additional accumulations. Winds will also pick up so blowing & drifting snow will also occur. The Lake Effect Machine will turn on Tues night and Wed. on a NW flow. Chaut, Catt and Orleans counties may see up to a foot of total accumulation by Wed evening (total 2 day accumulation.) Wed & Thurs will be the coldest days of our young winter season so far with daytime highs around 20F.
posted by LSchwarzwaelder at
9:15 PM
47 Comments:
Hey Lindsay.Can you estimate what Lockport will get? I watched the six oclock news on 7 and they said 6-18 which is a big spread and can find nothing giving an estimate for us.
i think me and u lindsay and misfitfan are the only ones that care about this storm and btw thank u veeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeery much for the update
how much snow will buffalo get? and why they are no advisories and warnings yet since they are forecasting between 6-10
thank u
Ayuud: I think that the NWS posted the Watches & Warnings north and south of Erie county because a NW flow will set up behind the departing low which will set up lake enhancement in those locations.
Misfitfan: I would say 6-9 by Wed Night.
McKean County PA has been upgraded from a Winter Storm WATCH to a Winter Storm WARNING from 5pm Tuesday - 3pm Wednesday.
Lindsay--
How much snow could a place such as Amherst see???
Thanks! Hope to hear back!!
-Jim
Maybe the law of averages will be with the National Weather Service this time. They have blown every forecast for storms so far this winter.
Jim: I would say 5-9 by Wed night for Amherst.
what about buffalo lindsay
ayuud:I think everyone is too busy partying or waiting for the hockey game to watch the news or know whats coming.I have a feeling alot of people will be surprised if that is true.
just to mention, it seems like the buffalo and northtowns area has had more snow than parts of ski co. looks like once again Niagara and Orleans county might out do the snow belt across so. erie, wyoming, and parts of chataqua, and catt. cos. except for chataqua ridge. oh to point out lake erie has actually gotten warmer from 35-37. it also seems like a really warm period after cold period. here we go with that up and down stuff again.
HAPPY NEW YEAR
Happy 2 0 0 8 everyone!!!
happy New Year!!!
How's Friday look...
very "iffy" to me...
Let Don figure it out.
Don, with all do respect, that was an NWS staement based on the compromise of models they choose...how is that cherry picking? Its a reflection of their forecast. The elements for LES are presemt there...dont you see a potential???
More than the Art of forecasting that Mary Beth wrote about earlier, sometimes its about instinct. I'm finding that my first instincts usually are the most correct. hence...arctic air sticking around longer into Thurs when don said the possibility was invalid and that my grapevine weatherblog friends that told me this were disconnected...all of a sudden the forecast changes...hmmm,,,
I love seeing NWS holding out on Erie county..Not even a hint of an advisory for Erie county despite the fact that roads are rapidly deteriorating... It is in spite of
Giambra leaving..Now that Giambra is gone you will see an advisory issued for Erie county before the day is over.. Thats a 4 Guarantee... Just ask Al!
A forecast is an estimate of how a condition will be in the future.
A Prediction is a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future.
Weather is best left to the
Meteorologists.
Interesting story about weather prediction this morning in the NY Times. You'll have to paste the addy into your browser.
str
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/science/01tier.html?th&emc=th
Light at the end of the tunnel.
Looks like nice dry slot developing to our west. Dry air is working its way in. Expect Buff to be snow free (passing flurry perhaps) tonight. Timing of East Coast storm development just a little too late and too far away to impact Buff tonight.
Cold gales tomorrow... We may see peaks of sunshine later today.Sun is shining nicely in Caledonia!!
Happy New Year, Bloggers! Here's the latest from WeatherWatch 4...snow/wet snow showers continue this afternoon with 1-2 inches general additional accumulation. temps hovering in upper 20s to low 30s. The cold blast arrives tonight...lake snow warnings go into effect this evening for Niagara, Orleans, Genesee, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and McKean, Co PA. In the metro area, snow will pick up with 2-4 inches additional accum. but 3-6 inches in north and south of Buffalo due to lake enhancement. Winds shift nw tonight and turn gusty, so poor visibility and white outs will become an issue in some parts. Tomorrow, downright cold..temps in the teens with bitter wind chills around zero. Lake effect will pump out another 2-5" north and south of Buffalo with an adiditional 1-2 inches elsewhere. Bit warmup coming our way over the weekend and beyond. That's it for now! Enjoy the holiday...
How much snow do you think Amherst will get? Will we see any of the LES... since we're in northren Erie?
Why is there no warning/ advisory for N. Erie county... it looks like there will be enough snow for at least an advisory, dont you think so???
Two perhaps random observations...
I have grown to respect Channel 4's Microcast model more and more... it predicted rain for the supposed big storm earlier in December, and it hinted, when others didn't, of a rain/wintry mix today... and what do you know it is raining/sleeting here in northern OP.
I have become increasingly wary of the NWS and their forecasts. They inaccurately predicted nearly two feet of snow for the mid-December storm, and they were predicting eight to eleven inches for Buffalo as recently as yesterday afternoon, to only downgrade to 4 inches at the most. Now this might be model confusion, difficult weather pattern, or the risk of having to issue detailed, continuously updated forecasts for a widespread area over a seven day period.
Not meant to offend, just my thoughts...
-Matt
Heavy snow moving into the area hold onto your hats..We may just get that foot..
How a storm map (for all storms, not just today) that shows "isolines" of snow so we can see what is predicted for our area. I think everone wants to know what to expect in their neighborhood/town/community. Saying 2-6 inches in someplace like Cattaraugus County isn't very helpful because it's a large area.
Hey MB i see thers a big wprm up untill at least the middle of next week but do know when we will get a shot of artic air.I know its far out but please give me an estiment time. And i know this will be allmost impossible but do you see anysigns of a lakesnow event in the long range for the southtowns???Thanks your well on you way for another secessfull year::::::::::)))))))))))))-Adam from Hamburg
Hi, Adam Afin: Regarding the warmup, after this Thursday the thaw begins for the region. This mild trend will last through pretty much all of next week. The next cold shot should arrive toward the weekend of the 12th...but don't expect it to last forlong. There are more signs of yet another mild spell in January.
Global Warming!!!! Winter in Buffalo just arnt like they used to be!
Looks as if no place in WNY will get any more than 3 or 4 inches out of this event! Idk how some meteorologists were calling for 12 or even 16 inches (ch. 4 was not)... omg! another dud!... just like all the other "events" we've had... except for one this winter. Remember past winters 4-5 years ago where we would get massive snow storms of a few feet... and some winters there would be two events like that! This up-coming summer is going to be hot and dry... something thats not common for the Buffalo area... last summer was one of the warmest and driest we've had in 20+ years! Things are really changing around here weather wise! Global warming???
Yea! The past 3 to 4 winters have been lame! *besides the Oct storm. Things really are changing weather wise!
Is there a chance of School Closings in Orleans County?
well I would have to say your school has a better chance of closing due to a water break than closing because of the snow!
All watches and warnings are cancelled as of this morning, as many of you know. Heaviest amounts were in parts of the srn tier, with Cassadega and S Dayton between 10-12 inches.
This is the WU Forecast...it shows the warm-up not coming until Sunday Evening...
Wednesday
Rain. High: 37° F. / 3° C. Wind NE 22 mph. / 36 km/h. Chance of precipitation 80%.
Wednesday Night
Rain. Low: 30° F. / -1° C. Wind NE 15 mph. / 25 km/h. Chance of precipitation 90%.
Thursday
Snow. Overcast. High: 35° F. / 2° C. Wind North 22 mph. / 36 km/h. Chance of precipitation 60%.
Thursday Night
Chance of Snow. Overcast. Low: 21° F. / -6° C. Wind North 26 mph. / 43 km/h. Chance of precipitation 40%
Friday
Chance of Snow. Overcast. High: 23° F. / -5° C. Wind North 17 mph. / 28 km/h. Chance of precipitation 20%.
Friday Night
Overcast. Low: 8° F. / -13° C. Wind North 11 mph. / 18 km/h.
Saturday
Overcast. High: 22° F. / -5° C. Wind NNW 8 mph. / 14 km/h.
Saturday Night
Overcast. Low: 13° F. / -10° C. Wind NNE 6 mph. / 10 km/h.
Sunday
Partly Cloudy. High: 32° F. / 0° C. Wind light.
Sunday Night
Scattered Clouds. Low: 28° F. / -2° C. Wind light.
Monday
Chance of Rain. Overcast. High: 35° F. / 2° C. Wind SW 8 mph. / 14 km/h. Chance of precipitation 40%
lakeshadow, what in the blazes is WU?
That imaginary forecast and your meteorological grapevine seem to be operating in another dimension in which science takes a holiday.
it also shows rain for today, so nevermind...
that forecast was for Varna, Bolivia...dont know how that happened...they still have us for below freexin well through Saturday, though....
Weather Underground...sorry for the mix up somthing happened when I copied and pasted...got the wrong city, wrong continent...
;O)
Sounds like you and your instincts are right on top of it, ls....
By the way, folks--I meant to post this earlier. Many of you, when visiting the NWS Buffalo site, are using what are known as the grid forecasts by clicking on the map. These have some human input, but are basically computerized output.
I suggest you click on Text Forecasts, and then Zone Forecasts for their better product.
Happy New Year CH 4 weather team
Don,
Even in south-central Ontario the predicted high under sunshine for Sunday is mid 40's. Should see quite a snowmelt. Probably way too early, but do you forsee much rain into next week with this warm up(for your area!) or a nice, gradual melt minus any showers.
Thank you.
barrie1...
Happy New Year to you, too. Doesn't look like much significant rain is possible until around next Wed-Thur, by which time much of the snowcover will have vanished or thinned out. You'll be warming up as well, though maybe not quite as much as near Buffalo.
Don,
My basement crawlspace and I thank you!
TX for the response.
hey don i see the nao going negative by 15th and the gfs is showing a storm and btw next week storm looks interesting
I'm getting sick of the NWS and the "Buffalo Media" crying wolf every time a snow flake might fall. There have been several occastions where they issued storm warnings and nothing happens. I've cancelled several plans over the past month as I'm sure many of you have. This effects our local economy because people don't shop or dine out like they otherwise would. Then of course, the warnings are lifted, and the sun comes out at about the same time we were suposed to get buried in a foot of snow when an inch of freezing rain was supposed to coat the area. I've about had it. The latest was a Winter Storm warning from New Years Day into today including Niagara County which caused me to cancel dinner plans with my mom in Wilson because we could get up to 10 inches of blowing snow. Of course, when I woke up this morning in Lockport, I only had just under an inch of snow on my car. I think the weather forcasting was better before computers and the doppler radar when non-meterologist like Commander Tom with a sock puppet named dustmop predicted the weather. This is Buffalo and it snows.
While I can justify some reasonable bewilderment at recent NWS forecasts, I try to remember to separate local TV weather departments from the often over-the-top coverage by the news department (i.e. sending reporters to Route 5 as if it is a new or typical story for the rest of the area and having some rookie reporter stand by the thruway to tell us the road is wet)
Just my thoughts-Matt
Tommorow will be the coldest day for a while and they will be a warm up each day with temps starting to climb to +5 on saturday and contuine to warm up till the next cold front which would bring us some significant rain then changing to wet snow after that another storm will develop around 14-16th time period which would bring us this time significant snowstorm especsially buffalo westward where the cold air stays and east of buffalo could have significant ice storm
------ i see people saying right now "do u have something supporting your idea right now"
yes the nao is going negative by 15th this month and when ever the nao goes negative they must be a storm around the east and the gfs is following that but it is too agreesive with the cold ...
till next time im your metroligist Alex giving you the long range forecast
Interesting post from Jeremy. No, this last forecast didn't work out that well for Niagara County. But I remind you, Jeremy, the storm of 3 Sundays ago verified better for Niagara County than any other county, and the limited lake snow of last weekend also verified best for Niagara County--so your blanket statement is a wee bit off.
The NWS doesn't need me to defend them. But having worked in a number of places before I came to Buffalo, I have to tell you this is the most talented and scientifically rich Forecast Office I've worked with in my lengthy career. They are a particularly dedicated group of people. During the years in which I regularly visiting the Office to train on NWS Learning Modules for Doppler Radar, Lake Effect, and the like, not once did I see one of their staffers arriving late or taking off early. They work hard to keep the media informed. My professional opinion: this is a darned good office which has made a national impact in their original development of a high resolution model called BUFKIT, now used across the country, in Canada, and at universities, as well as the National Severe Storms Laboratory and the Storm Prediction Center.
As for the comment you made about forecasts being better years ago, allow me to use a word from before my time: "Balderdash!" Forecast verification scores have shown a steady increase over recent decades, and have never been as accurate as they are right now. This is beyond dispute, since the NWS keeps meticulous statistical records. Severe weather forecasting has enjoyed a quantum leap in advance lead time for the public and lives are being saved, and hurricane track forecasts continue to show steady improvement.
As for Tom Jolls--I don't know him well, but I can tell you he was as decent and kind a broadcaster as you would hope him to be. He never hyped, he remained calm, and he loved his work. There are some things I could learn from his reassuring style. But Tom didn't "predict" the weather. He used the forecast supplied to him at WKBW by AccuWeather. Although I will say this--when Tom thought AccuWeather was going off the "deep end" in snow accumulations (as they sometimes do), he had the good instincts to call the NWS and get a sound second opinion--so he could add some needed perspective for his audience to an occasionally flamboyant forecast from that company in State College.
Channel 2 had a commercial that they are the most accurate in forecasting. Channel 4 claims the same.. I guess both are comparing to The wives tail almanac..
Don start a new thread!
I don't spend much time worrying about Ch 2's claims and public acceptance of them.
When the audience research on weather shows something different, I may change my tune.
From a scientific and statistical standpoint, and a content standpoint, let's just say we're confident baloney is recognizable as such.
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