Snow Lovers-Enjoy it while you have it!
While lake snow will continue through Tuesday, heavier in the higher terrain, and also with some moderate snow to the NE of the metro area, a significant pattern change is already showing up. The NAO goes positive and the PNA goes negative. Bottom line: a more zonal flow sets up across the lower 48 late in the week, and then an upper level ridge will build over the east, allowing temps to return to above normal by later in the weekend and early next week. This doesn't mean it's going to stay warm indefinitely--there are signs of waves in the upper level flow will will allow short cooldowns next week, but the polar jet will not stay in the same NW to SE alignment we've seen recently for any extended period in the foreseeable (2 weeks) future.
posted by Don Paul at
12:04 AM
36 Comments:
I am curious... how is it that the City of Buffalo metro area escapes heavy snow, yet to the north and south of us larger snowfall totals? What kind of wind or temperature patterns create this situation? A question from a "weather dummy".
Well since any one pattern seems to be lasting about 2 weeks hopefully it will flip again and turn more wintry towards Christmas!
Don, I dont expect you or anyone else to depend on my observations...I just make them and post them. If it turns out that something has affected the current forecast, I'm sure there are lots of weather experts working 24/7 to do just that. However, I thought perhaps the function of this blog was to communicate these sort of things so that we may all be better informed. It seemed to become abandoned there for a while and during what could have potentially been a major storm for the area. I guess I just expected a little bit more vigilence with communication in this forum. People ask questions but no answers come. Especially when you're looking at a potentially hazordous morning commute, its nerve-wracking and I'm sure you are aware of that.
With that in mind, If anyone would like to keep posted on the NE weather conditions and be able to blog questions or queries at any point of the day or night with well trained meteorologists or weather-junkie novices like myself, let me point towards a great online forum:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/show.html
We're there 24/7 answering questions and researching weather. You can provide links, images, graphs maps and edit your posts. Check it out.
let me post that link again:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/sullivanweather/show.html
The website is www.wunderground.com.. go to blogs and look for the Northeast weather blog in the featured Blogs. Dr. Masters' Tropical weather blog is also a great forum! Very insightful, talented patient people who actually answer your questions!
The meteorologists at channel 4 are not under any obligation to maintain these weather blogs. They take time out of the day to do this stuff. They are actually getting paid by WIVB to provide a forecast for their viewers. During the storm over the weekend I believe Mary Beth provided updated posts. As was forecasted over the past two days there was no significant threat to the commute around the metro area, thus there was no need to post a blog indicating such. If people are going to use this to critizize the folks who provide it we may lose it. If you don't like it don't participate. I appreciate the efforts of the folks who set this up.
oopps..I spelled criticize wrong..lol
I guess this forum just for those who want to tell these mets what a great job their doing. ( or not..although seems the only welcome post are from the ego boosters club)
Me, I'll be tracking storms and learning about weather systems on the wunderground. I do appreciate the fact that these blogs exsist, just thought they were for a different purpose, I suppose.
Thank you, Nick.
Lakeshadow, as Nick correctly perceived, a weather blog can't override our primary responsibilities to our audience. It's fun for me to have the ability to update as it is for Mary Beth, Lindsay, and Mike, but it occasionally has to take a backseat to our job description at WIVB.
I hope you'll keep posting. But I did see your tendency to "tell" rather than discuss some issues.
Other than the laws of physics and a huge number of equations attached to them, there aren't many absolutes in meteorology, so I'm interested to read of others' thoughts as time allows, and contribute my own.
But if I were you, I wouldn't be so quick to "declare" that a low has stalled when the evidence is otherwise. That really takes a base of formal education and experience, and we don't (obviously) get it right, either!
Thank you, Nick.
Lakeshadow, as Nick correctly perceived, a weather blog can't override our primary responsibilities to our audience. It's fun for me to have the ability to update as it is for Mary Beth, Lindsay, and Mike, but it occasionally has to take a backseat to our job description at WIVB.
I hope you'll keep posting. But I did see your tendency to "tell" rather than discuss some issues.
Other than the laws of physics and a huge number of equations attached to them, there aren't many absolutes in meteorology, so I'm interested to read of others' thoughts as time allows, and contribute my own.
But if I were you, I wouldn't be so quick to "declare" that a low has stalled when the evidence is otherwise. That really takes a base of formal education and experience, and we don't (obviously) get it right, either!
Then outlaying the rationale for your train of thought as to why a low has or has not stalled would be helpful. Links to support your claims would be helpful. Insights to what you are observing would be helpful.
The low stalled. It caused the NW wind blast to be delayed and lots of people who thought they were going to get snow didnt and others who didnt expect it got it.
It happens. Its weather..a natural occurance that cannot be controlled by man, thats why its a good thing to have a forum like this so people understand the different possibilities thereof.
Maybe I should put the disclaimer on:
It is your responsibility to ensure the safety of you and your family. Please heed all weather information posted by the National Weather Service. Although the information found here is believed to be valid, Lakeshadow does not verify the information found on this site nor the links to other sites. Therefore Lakeshadow takes no responsibility for how you choose to use this information.
For folks who want to learn more about weather, heres a great site set up by mets just for novices!
http://www.stormjunkie.com/learning.html
In the pursuit of knowledge...
p.s. Don, Its rather difficult to have a one sided discussion, so it may appear that I was "telling". I'm just throwing observations out there...Anyone that can challenge me is welcome because I'm here to learn. I dont mind being told that I'm wrong I just want to know why.
Thats how I learn.
Thanks again. I'll keep posting, I'll just know what to expect in the future...
lakeshadow,
The low did not stall. It was caught up in a swift moving branch of the jet once its closed circulation had been captured during its intensification phase.
How did you arrive at your conclusion? Did you check surface pressure tendencies? Tendencies from the mandatory levels from the balloons/soundings? Satellite and radar imagery? If you did, you wouldn't have drawn your incorrect conclusion. Windspeeds came up nearly precisely on the schedule derived from model output way back on Friday night, along with the cold advection. The delays you describe appear to be from that of whatever schedule you came up with on your own--not that of the available data. Professionals, as we all know--blow forecasts. This was not one of them.
The only information on this blog you have to validate are YOUR remarks. I doubt anyone else here cares whether or not you validate the information on this site.
Thank you. Thats what I wanted to hear. Now I have a better understanding as to what happened.
And everyone who reads this blog will, too. I think its very clear that my status is novice. My information is mostly from studying radar and maps and models, reading climatology reports and weather discussions, all of which I'm learning about.
I watched the radar for 4 hours on Sunday/Monday. I looked at maps showing me stationary fronts and looked at the mesoscale maps to look for instability in the atmosphere, temps, wind directions, researched the weather balloon page, (thanks to Linday's helpful links and your guidance). I know I dont grasp all of what entails meteorology and I thought this was a place where someone such as yourself would empart some knowledge upon us "regular people" so that we may learn.
The only thing about weather that I know for sure is there are no absolutes.
The language in that disclaimer is found on just about every weather page out there...just trying to make a point.
sorry to monopolize, I'll lurk from now on.
Pacific air is still slated to begin modifying our Arctic air by Friday, but that doesn't mean we're going to be entirely snowfree. First, late Wed night into Thursday, a brisk W to WSW flow will again develop in the boundary layer and step up the snow showers over ski country. Available moisture even with that flow, and 850 mb (5000') temperatures aren't going to be conducive to large accumulations, but some limited lake snow will redevelop in that time period. Our Super Microcast (an upgraded version of Microcast we run on a high speed workstation computer here at the station) suggests weak lake snow may shift to the metro area Thursday afternoon or evening. On Friday, a more vigorous "short wave" aloft will send some more widespread snow across the eastern Great Lakes. Any accumulation with this system will be of the slushy variety, with the boundary layer warming up and sfc temps likely to reach the mid 30s. Another system which will bear watching will be a stationary front near us on Sunday with waves moving up the front. The boundary layer looks marginal for all frozen precip, but snow can't be ruled out at this point. If it were all snow, we might have something to talk about.
While the pattern is changing to a more moderate one, there will still be disturbances going by which can occasionally hook on to some modified Arctic air and give some quick shots of snow or mixed precip.
And one more tidbit of potential good news for snow lovers....
Today's predictive NAO index is suddenly showing a return to a negative NAO around the 15-17th of the month, and there appears to be new negative trend just beginning to show up in what's called the AO, or Arctic circulation at about that time. The PNA ridge is still absent in its index around the 15th, but the ensemble index (all of these indices are run off an ensemble of models, rather than just a single run of one model) at least shows shows a trend just beginning to move back up to later in the month. That would force reestablishment of a wrn North America ridge/eastern trough. Nothing definite here, but some very early hints of a pattern change in 2-3 weeks back toward more wintry weather.
You can learn more about these indices by simply Googling "Climate Prediction Center." That's the branch of the NWS which deals in long range outlooks.
"Weather Dummy": Gee, maybe you're too hard on yourself with that surname! That's actually a terrific question! To put it simply, it all has to do with the LAKE EFFECT. You need a blast of cold air riding on top of a relatively warm lake in addition to some other atmospheric ingredients. The wind direction is KEY as to who gets snow. Wind direction is measured in degrees. For example, a 90 degree wind is EAST, 180 is South, 270 is West, etc. When metro Buffalo gets its big lake snow, the wind direction will be WSW or around 250 degrees off of Lake Erie. The favored lake effect snow belt areas (extreme southtowns, ski country and so. tier) have winds that are generally out of the West/NW off of Lake Erie or any where between 270 and 310 degrees. Think about it...It's logical that a cold air mass would come into town from a West or NW direction...therefore, producing more snow in areas south of Buffalo. Makes sense? Oh, you mentioned areas NORTH of Buffalo getting more snow, too. In this case, the effect is off of Lake Ontario, instead of Erie. A cold NorthWest or NNW wind riding off of a warm Lake Ontario will produce lake snow on its south shores, which would include Niagara and Orleans counties. In this case, there could also be a lake effect connection with Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which would enhance lake snows in these parts. Hope this helps!
"Weather Dummy": Gee, maybe you're too hard on yourself with that surname! That's actually a terrific question! To put it simply, it all has to do with the LAKE EFFECT. You need a blast of cold air riding on top of a relatively warm lake in addition to some other atmospheric ingredients. The wind direction is KEY as to who gets snow. Wind direction is measured in degrees. For example, a 90 degree wind is EAST, 180 is South, 270 is West, etc. When metro Buffalo gets its big lake snow, the wind direction will be WSW or around 250 degrees off of Lake Erie. The favored lake effect snow belt areas (extreme southtowns, ski country and so. tier) have winds that are generally out of the West/NW off of Lake Erie or any where between 270 and 310 degrees. Think about it...It's logical that a cold air mass would come into town from a West or NW direction...therefore, producing more snow in areas south of Buffalo. Makes sense? Oh, you mentioned areas NORTH of Buffalo getting more snow, too. In this case, the effect is off of Lake Ontario, instead of Erie. A cold NorthWest or NNW wind riding off of a warm Lake Ontario will produce lake snow on its south shores, which would include Niagara and Orleans counties. In this case, there could also be a lake effect connection with Lake Huron and Georgian Bay which would enhance lake snows in these parts. Hope this helps!
Thanks, Nick. I'm hoping for a white Christmas, too! Pattern over next couple of weeks looks to be somewhat of a see-saw ride with quick cold spells as well as warmups. Let's keep our fingers crossed! Think Snow!
Lakeshadow: In all candor, your quasi-pseudo-geostrophic weather discussion over the weekend didn't make sense! Your talk about the "stationary indication centered around the low", and "disrupting the surface air flow" was perplexing. Frankly, I admire your meteorological enthusiasm, but perhaps you can check out some on-line weather tutorials to further your knowledge along in the field.
To disagree with you Marybeth. I am praying for a green Christmas and green New Years. Having snow does not make Christmas and makes a lot of trouble for traveling to family gatherings.
Dear Grumpyoldman: In the spirit of Christmas and the Holiday Season in general, you are correct, snow is NOT what it's all about. I sincerely do not root for travel troubles, and safety is of utmost concern to me. I must admit though, the holidays look "prettier" and "more festive" when there's a coating of snow. Kids love it...big people, too...and so do Mets, like me! Happy holidays, GOM, and I hope I cheered you up. :-)
I may be a "Weather Dummy" who likes the winter season with all it brings, but I really like Grumpy Old Man and his attitude! Go get 'em G-O-M! Mary Beth, thanks for your easy to understand lesson in wind direction and lake effect snow. Speaking of lake effect off Lake Ontario... is that what pushes all the snow into the Syracuse area every season?
Thanks also to the "civil" bloggers out there who really seem interested in true sharing and give-n-take.
"Weather Dummy"
Weather Dummy: Yep...you're right about Syracuse getting its snow off of Lake Ontario. BTW, Ontario is a super deep lake. It doesn't freeze like shallower Lake Erie. Instead, it stays "alive" all winter season! That's why places like the "Tug Hill Plateau", Oswego/Jefferson counties (located on the eastern end of that lake) typically see some of the highest snowfall totals in all of NYS every winter.
Hey Mary Beth! If you keep on leaking out to the public that most mets like snow, they're gonna lynch us!!
Wow, Don, that's a bizarre thought! But if there was a noose, I certainly hope it would be made from shoestring red licorice. :-)
Quick addendum: Evening runs suggest Sunday will be too mild for snow, but still a bit of a close call.
Just as long as it is still COLD for the those thin-blooded Dolphins out at the stadium! Any word yet on whether it is a sell-out and going to be on Channel 4?
"Weather Dummy"
I'm wondering...what's the deal with all the wind we've been having lately? I'm thinking I should quit both my jobs and sell kites or build windmills instead.
What would the wind direction have to be, for western Niagara county to get lake snow from lake Erie? I know the north counties, mostly get lake snow from lake Ontario, but that's not the case for Western Niagara county. Mostly, when a NW or NNW wind direction is there, the snow goes to Eastern Niagara County and Orleans.
My guess would be from the south. Didn't that happen recently? G.I., N. Tonawanda, and NF getting lake effect from a southerly flow?
Snow: Off of Lake Erie, the general wind direction would be 230-240 degrees for lake snow to reach Niagara county...that would make a sw wind.
Marshall: Here's another idea...work for the power authority! Ha!
Weather Dummy: I asked our sports Director, Dennis Williams. He says there are only about 1000 tix left..they'll know by 1pm tomorrow... Squish the Fish!
And if you're talking about FAR west part of northern Niagara County, you really need a 220 wind origin. At that point, the wind's "fetch" over L Erie is very short. In most cases, a 220 wind can't deliver that much snow. Remember, if the bands are quite narrow, every 5 degrees change in wind direction can be critical to your location. On December 10, 1995, the Buffalo airport received its greatest 24 hour snowfall. That band was just 5 miles wide from north to south. The northern part of Amherst received only about 2", while the portion of Amherst bordering on Cheektowaga got the full 30+ inches!
I remember that 12/10 storm! I was a digital arts major at UB at the time, and took a time lapse video of my housemate's Neon getting slowly buried. By early evening, all you could see was the antenna!
I wish I had that kind of free time these days...
I think of Kenmore as being in the shadow of the Niagara Peninsula. We will have bright sunshine above while there are dark clouds to the north and south. I guess western Niagara County is even more in that shadow when it comes to lake effect.
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