Thursday Winter Storm Watch for part of WNY
The model which showed the least-est now shows the most-est in the way of snow for Thursday (the NAM). The track of Thursday's storm system has now been adjusted considerably further north, and this will bring moderate to heavy snow into the higher terrain of WNY tomorrow, and a few inches will be possible on the Niagara Frontier as well.
This has been a relatively sudden change in the model runs (even the NWS had only been talking about an inch for Buffalo in their morning Area Forecast Discussion today). I'll have more info after I finish doing my analysis and peruse through all of the models.
This has been a relatively sudden change in the model runs (even the NWS had only been talking about an inch for Buffalo in their morning Area Forecast Discussion today). I'll have more info after I finish doing my analysis and peruse through all of the models.
posted by Don Paul at
12:01 PM
48 Comments:
wow i wish u good luck don but hey i was suprised u going with the NWS and giving us an inch around here in buffalo but the early runs of the gfs models were further north but since past days they changed into further south but i wish u good luck with ur accurate snowfall forecast don
Ayuud
Ayuud,
You can't just cherry pick which model you want because it meets your wishes. You're a little young to be "surprised" by our choices, since you have not begun your formal meteorological education. Models are tools, but without an understanding of how the atmosphere works, plugging into models may be fun, but it's a very incomplete process.
This is a good site for all of us to exchange our ideas and learn something from one another, but I'd like you to remember something Ayuud--we can't afford to do "Toy Weather" on the air or on wivb.com,
because we have a responsibility to the public. We make enough mistakes using hard science as it is without engaging in wishful thinking.
In fact, this quick change in the NAM model makes Mike & me a little nervous whenever a model makes a quick change. The GFS, though, has been a little more consistent on this system, so it's not an astronomical leap to go to 2-4" for the metro area, more to the south (more than 6" in much of the srn tier) and less to the north.
ありがと、Don！ 雪が好きです！
Hehe Sorry, I wanted to speak Japanese. I said "Thank you, Don! I like snow!"
Here's the latest, based on morning model runs, for Thursday's system and the weekend storm:
Since the NAM had moved the system further north, now more in sync with the GFS global model, it's prudent to up the ante on tomorrow's snowfall. Heaviest amounts will be in the higher terrain to the south, but 2-3 or 2-4" will likely reach the Buffalo Stowns and the City. Amounts will decrease as you move further north toward Lk Ontario. The British (UKMET) model and European (ECMWF) models still suppress this system further south, but those models ran before this morning's soundings and data could be pumped in to them, so for this first system, they won't hold much weight.
As for the major weekend storm, both the European and Canadian GEM models hold onto the parent/interior low and its extended trough to the NW (toward us) long enough for some significant snow to arrive Saturday evening into Sunday morning, along with an increasingly gusty easterly wind. We don't get the full brunt, as I see it, but we get a fair shot.
There is some chance we could see more than half a foot out of the weekend storm, with the operational GFS, European, and Canadian models not being that far apart from one another. I'll want to see the next run of the UKMET and the Navy NOGAPS models this evening to enter into the snow equation.
Could someone please delete my previous post?
don,anyone can read the buffalo forcast disco.then read the gov issued forcast, go on the air and say this is the way they see it, or even more ridiculous listen to a certain radio stations forcasts in which they send in by phone from outside the state cant pronounce town or county names right so lets just call it ski country. when i watch your forcast i know you looked at all the tools and information present to give a real forcast! as a weather watcher in this area all my life i know when a forcast varifies it a good thing and sometimes a "fly in the ointment"come to play atleast i know your forcast is real work your work thanks for keeping it real don and staff. GOOD LUCK WITH THE NEXT 2
We knew it would happen sooner or later. We are about due for a bit of snow... and what makes this wknd storm different is the fact that it wont just be the south towns getting the brunt of the snow! It will be very interesting to see what actually happens!
-Sean
Don, are the models for tomorrow showing more than 7" for the Southern Tier? And speaking of models I used to look at those produced by the University of Michigan, I've had trouble accessing them lately.
str
Ok now we got a Heavy Snow warning , It that a upgrade or downgrade from , winter storn watch?
it's upgrade btw Nws issued a snow advisory for the metro area and the gennesse valley don what u think ?
did they make a good decision or not because i support ur snowfall accumalation 2-4 for the metro but the nws is forecasting 3-6.
don is this increase due to the possibilty of more forcing taking place than previously prescribed
i don't mean this in any derogatory way, but i said yesterday they were predicting the storm to move further north than you thought. accuweather.com had it moving just to the south of the southern tier which would bring accumulating snow, and now us in Niagara County are under a Snow Advisory (may be temporary?), but it is much better than an inch of snow any day.
now the REAL interest i have is the weekend storm - don't all the big storms come on the weekend, it seems? anyway, there are very many interesting factors going into this storm. first of all, there is going to be ample moisture from the gulf and atlantic that is going to be pumped into the storm, clashing with a broad dome of cold air to the north. the initial low that is going to move very close to us will then shift most of its energy to the coast where a deep coastal low will form. accuweather.com (i sound like a broken record endorsing that website, but they have the best graphics) show the worst of the storm may be from Rochester east, so we're really not that far away from it. just a shift 50 miles west could mean one of the worst storms we have had in this area in years. it is expected to be at least for someone, with blinding winds, frigid temperatures, and ridiculously heavy, persistent snow that has a continuous source known as the Atlantic Ocean. This is all EXTREMELY fascinating and i cannot wait to watch the weather channel, and channel 4 OF COURSE, to see what all the weather experts have to say. all i can say is, we're ready for a blizzard. :)
it definitely sounds a lot worse than what you say it will end up to be...have any later models hinted at this? man if i had my hands on one that's all i would look at...ALL DAY :) well not rly i do have a life 2 u no
i cant wait for the 18z gfs run btw the nam model has the storm way too far east
NWS is highlighting this weekend storm
NYZ001>006-008-010-011-132315-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-
605 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.
SNOW ADVISORY.
A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO WESTERN NEW YORK SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT
IS TOO EARLY TO PROJECT THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS
WINTER STORM OR POTENTIAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS
WILL BE ISSUED REGARDING THIS STORM AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF
ayuud...Save yourself some typing--everyone can access the NWS website.
Anonymous/accuwx person: There are plenty of excellent noncommercial graphics sites. I'm not going to say much about AccuWx's forecasting for our region, but I note you didn't mention their Tuesday PM forecast for the daylight hours of Wednesday (yesterday) which called for "Snow or Rain." There was never a chance of snow in ANY of Tuesday's data.
They have some excellent folks working there, including Dr. Joe Sobel and Eliot Abrams, but my impression is, driving in to work, we don't always get their most skilled people working the PM shift.
strbuk: those models on the excellent U of Michigan website are NWS models, produced at NCEP, the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Another superb site is Penn State's PSU ELECTRONIC MAP WALL.
After listening to Buffalo media and CNN there's seems to be some hype with this storm for Thurs. People saying 1-2"per hour with a foot of snow, and blowing snow on Sat. night and tons of lake effect in between... On the TV, the radio...Don please rationalize with these snowcrazy people.
Love the map wall, by the way.
And Ayuud, I know you didnt type all that. (copy & paste) It does take up blog space. precious, precious blog space....
Sounds like this site should have some ground rules , there appears to be alot of ,we said this , they said this , I think this , while debate is great , it's no so fun on the other end reading what appears to be arguing.
This is WIVB's site and should be treated as such , not a advertisement site for other sites..
Last anonymous: Let's start with the lake effect--there won't be "tons" of it, unless you weigh it. But it will be accompanied by increasingly gusty SW winds, so there will likely be some blowing snow.
Some parts of the srn tier could see up to 10" tomorrow, so "a foot" is not out of the question for a few spots.
As for the weekend storm, I'll admit it does look likely we're going to pick up a significant accumulation and there will be blowing snow due to an increasing pressure gradient around the top of the interior storm.
So, I'm sure there'll be some hype, but I'll try to keep my own work down to a low roar. Still, at this point, the setup around these parts continues to look impressive--so I can't completely deflate it.
well, technically, if you weigh all of the snow that falls all over the affected viewing area..then yes there would literally be tons of it... however I was paraphrasing the reports from the "grapevine" media.
:o)
And the other anonymous person...Since this site is powered by google, its my impression (being a free marketplace for ideas) that this forum is for any type of weather discussion for the community, not just a second news desk for the WX. Everyone has access, there's no "troll" control, so it seems that anything goes, just remember, there are a lot of idiots out there!
Are we looking at any polar air masses making there way into the region with any of these storms ?
A white Christmas is looking good
When I see that Either northern erie or Southern erie has any type of warning it has always been a pain for me because being located in Orchard park/West seneca, Most say southern erie which side should I stick with and to get an idea of snowfall totals ect.
I had a feeling the forcast was gonna change this morning when Mike Cejeka said we had a weak system passing well to the south I GUARANTEE it. A seasoned veteran forcaster like Mike should know better than to guarantee a forcast. I love snow so i'm happy we are getting more keep it coming. It's just kinda funny how the forcast flips like that. Maybe Mike will be right seeing as no snow has fallin yet. Come on Don how about a preliminary estimate on snow amounts for this weekends storm. Is it possible 6 to 12" could fall? Your weather team is the best bar none in WNY tv. Just pokin fun where i can. Keep up the guarantee's Mike. LOL
Late evening update: I've adjusted snow totals down a bit from my 5 & 6pm forecast, based on soundings & the 00z run of the NAM; 3-5" metro (5 more likely Stown, 3 Buffalo); 1-3 near Lk Ontario & 6-9" higher terrain S & SE of Stowns. One possible complication...some sleet could mix in closer to PA, holding down accumulations.
Lk snow late Thur night looks unimpressive due to marginal temps, but there will likely be some blowing snow with a strengthening SW/WSW wind into Friday. It could start near Buffalo or the Buffalo Stowns and shift further south on Friday into the srn tier.
Still no numbers for the Sat night-Sun AM storm, nor should there be. The NAM looks to be an outlier, taking a flatter wave right out to sea with no inverted trough up in the ern lakes. All the global models (GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, and the regional Canadian GEM) have some northwestward extension into our region, and even the Navy NOGAPS--which was a weak outlier yesterday has come around closer to this solution today.
No indication we will get the full brunt of this storm, but it still should be our best system yet.
Don,
I looked at the "commercial" weather service you spoke about, and they have it getting into the 40s with rain around Christmas. Is it still too early to tell if we will have a white Christmas, or do you see the same warming trend?
JP
JP--I have a thread on that subject right on this blog, which I'm updating each weeknight.
Just to be technically correct on this thread, late this afternoon NWS changed the Winter Storm WATCH to a Heavy Snow WARNING for those counties, and issued a Snow Advisory for the rest of WNY. A Winter Storm WARNING is in effect for nrn PA, due to the probability of some sleet mixing in.
Don,
You were the first to make mention of the possible storm this wknd. Tonight was the first night on another news station where the wknd storm was even mentioned! However, the one station that is finally starting to broadcast the wknd storm decided to start doing it on their 10pm news cast... and he gave it quite a bit of hype! "A major snowstorm is in the works for this wknd." I think we're just about due for our first decent snow fall of the season. Maybe the snow we get will stick around to make for a white Christmas? It would be nice... we'll just have to wait and see. Don, if you had to give a forecast of the "biggest outcome" from this storm, what could the max snowfall totals reach? (hypothetically) If you had to give the "least outcome" forecast for this storm, what would it be snowfall wise? Its nice to keep seeing the updates on these two storms!
Thanks
Jim,
I'm reluctant, but I'd say a minimum would be 3-6" and a maximum of 7-9."
Thanks for your compliments. There will be some limited warming by later next week, so I think we'll need another coat to hold on to a true White Christmas. More on that on the White Christmas thread.
Well mother nature loves to keep us WNY on our toes.. I was suprised to see the heavy snow warning issued for my area.. You never know with these types of systems thats for sure..
Don, thanks for keeping us up to date.. I look forward to reading your responses and your thoughts on the upcoming storms at work as well as at home.. I think it is refreshing to hear from an expert what he is thinking..
When will you have a better idea of the storm this weekend..
I live in Arcade so we have already have had a few storms this year.. Looks like some more ahead..
PLease continue to keep us updated...
Thank You
Well, right now, it's snowing really hard up in Niagara County, and everyone else has said that we're getting 3 to 6 inches, so it looks real promising. GO SNOW!!!!
Directed to Don fyi or any one that knows "When I see that Either northern erie or Southern erie has any type of warning it has always been a pain for me because being located in Orchard park/West seneca, Most say southern erie which side should I stick with and to get an idea of snowfall totals ect."
The NWS includes Orchard Park as part of srn Erie County. However, I try to use the Buffalo Stowns whenever possible to differentiate those densely populated suburbs from the more rural and hilly terrain of most of srn Erie County. Most often, if you hear me say "below the Southtowns" or in "Ski Country" it's my estimation that the action will focus south of O.P.
Latest on the wknd storm as of early Thur afternoon: Still lookin good for the parent/interior low to come close enough to us to provide serious snow by later Saturday evening into Sunday morning before the coastal bomb steals away the moisture. In fact, the Canadian GEM brings that initial low close enough so that warming aloft might change the snow to sleet for a time. Other models keep it as all snow. Even the outlier NAM brings at least moderate, if not heavy, snow into WNY (last night's run didn't).
More on the air, and more here this evening.
Don is there any indications that the coastal bomb could still take a more westerly track? I would imagine it is still a tough call at this time. Just wondering if that was still a possibility. Thanks Mike from Arcade
Don is there any indications that the coastal bomb could still take a more westerly track? I would imagine it is still a tough call at this time. Just wondering if that was still a possibility. Thanks Mike from Arcade
Nice Snow forecast Don i received a solid 6 inches of snow here in buffalo west side
btw don the national weather service is saying when this weekend storm is done the snow accumalation will range from 12-20 inches of snow .
what do u think don
Don when are u gonna show us your projected snowfall for this weekend storm
^^^^yes i completely agree. i hope you either show it on 6 10 or 11 and im gonna try to watch. But yea up here in Wheatfield we got a decent 5 inches of snow, that's no lie. I even measured in a few different places and got relatively the same measurement. it started around 915 and just kept snowing at a really good clip until about 3, so that amounts to about an inch an hour.
so about this weekend: very very interesting. i have just seen a few different models including the GPS model and they are in conflict a little - they do not know where the storm is going, and when the coastal low is going to take over. the one question i have is if we are going to be heavily affected by that coastal low. could it still take a westerly track? and if so, what are the maximum amounts of snowfall we could get or, better yet, the chances for a blizzard (now i know it's pretty hard to get one but the qualifications look to be met - heavy snow, blinding winds, and cold temperatures probably not even reaching 20 if we're lucky). thanks, and honestly, channel 4 has the best weather, hands down.
don,can you please explain what a sounding is, and how this is used? thanks 4 all your help!
Could they be just trying to scare us? , I haven't heard Don use the word it's going to be a whopper..
So it sounds like we are going to possibly get part one , but the secondary part will not hit us ( not even wrap
around)..Anyways , sounds like WIVB weather has a busy 36-48 or more hours..
Sounds like its going to fe a fun ride downtown on Sunday Morning.
76/77: A sounding is a cross section of the atmosphere measured by the instruments on weather balloons as they ascend into the upper atmosphere. Temperature, humidity, winds and pressure are all recorded through this ascent at many different altitudes. These profiles are critical in weather forecasting, including determining the type of precipitation which is likely, jetstream location, & areas of maximum velocity in the jetstream. This information is examined by operational meteorologists, and is also ingested minimally twice a day into virtually all computer models to initiate the model with reliable realtime data.
Winter Storm Watch In effect.
Don, You stated that there is a 70%chance of over 8" of snow fall correct? will the snow be light and fluffy or wet.
thanks
Gosh darn in you beat me to it snowman! i thought i was going to be the first one to say it! but oh well ill give you what they had to say on the NOAA website:
...A MAJOR WINTER STORM HEADED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
YORK LATER THIS WEEKEND...
.A STRONG STORM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM...BUT IT DOES APPEAR AT THIS TIME THAT SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA.
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT ALL
OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
WINDS.
THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR
LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS. TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT
ACROSS THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE. IF YOU
ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
holy crap as soon as i saw that i RAN back to tell my mom i couldnt believe it i knew they had to issue a watch either tonight or tomorrow cuz its sounding more and more convincing that WE'RE GONNA GET SOMETHIN' BIG!!! :) :) :) LOTS OF GOOD STUFF ABOUT THIS STORM: first of all, the watch goes until MONDAY MORNING!! i find that quite interesting in itself. second, i checked what the watch pertained further east and it was not quite as harsh. here is what the national weather service of binghamton had to say:
...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BINGHAMTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS ANOTHER, MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THIS LOW WILL INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO A
POSITION OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THIS NOR`EASTER IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THE SNOW COULD BECOME HEAVY ON SUNDAY. SLEET
COULD MIX IN WITH THE SNOW OVER THE CATSKILLS AND NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 FOOT OR
GREATER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS
ALL SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT BECAUSE HEAVY SNOW IS A
POSSIBILITY, BUT NOT A CERTAINTY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 7 INCHES OR MORE. TRAVEL
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS, SO IT IS IMPORTANT TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
IN THE WATCH AREA.
you see? it doesn't sound as bad there. sleet? EWW, who wants that? we got what sounds like a REAL winter storm, the classic kind - heavy snow, LOTS of wind, and the like. so, like that one guy said, IS THIS GOING TO BE A WHOPPER? and like i asked before, COULD WE BE IN FOR A BLIZZARD, or in the least, BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS?
as you can tell im gettin real excited about this can't wait to see what you have to say on news at 10 and 11!! GO SNOW!! :)
Hey guys, how bout we stop listing the NWS warnings/watches on here. Announcing them is fine but everyone can access the NWS for themselves to read it. It's a little frustrating to read through a NWS statement on a blog site. Great job WIVB, your the only ones who always (at least most of the time) get it right. Only station I will watch for weather.
Sorry I just thought it fit in nicely. Just so EVERYONE can see it. and yea, i did get a bit carried away, so ill try to be a little more careful next time. but still, this is a blog, so i think we are allowed to post anything relevant to weather :) unless don paul tells us we can't...then ill consider stopping. so as long as i find it relevant, ill post it.
I dont see a problem with weatherfreak posting so we all don't have to check the NWS site.
The only problem I see is that it takes up quite alot of space. Haha yea I beat you on the posting weatherfreak.
I think Mr. Paul did request, perhaps in another thread, that people stop posting stuff from the NWS site.
For what it's worth, we got about 4 inches at my day job in the Central Park area of the city, and 5 inches at my house in the Cheektowaga side of Depew. By the time I got home from my night job, it was raining lightly, which made snowblowing a royal pain.
i agree with the person or persons who "blogged" about pets left outdoors to endure the cold and not a word was mentioned on the weather broadcasts....this would be the perfect place to remind or rather give a "friendly" reminder to viewers. channel 2 or 7????
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home