Weekend System Looks Likely to be a Major Storm
Models continue to be coming closer together for this storm's path and impact, though nothing is carved in stone on a Thursday evening. A Winter Storm WATCH is up for all WNY Sat evening until early Monday. Light snow will reach WNY toward early Saturday evening and become moderate to heavy at times later at night into a good portion of Sunday. Winds will be on the increase, making blowing and drifting snow likely to complicate matters. Latest analysis now has a real possibility of 12+ inches by late Sunday, and one set of algorithms developed by a group of midwest mets would bring the total to higher than that. Of course, a more westward path could bring sleet in to hold down accumulations, and a more eastward path would lessen amounts as well.
Still, models have come closer together today than they were yesterday, including the NWS NAM.
Still, models have come closer together today than they were yesterday, including the NWS NAM.
posted by Don Paul at
9:42 PM
350 Comments:
Is this shaping up to be a colorado low, taking a path over Chicago, Detroit and southwestern Ontario or is it one of those Appalachian path/east coast storms?
Wow! This storm seems to be “upgraded,” and looks to have a bigger and bigger impact on WNY as each day goes by! I think we’ll be feeling the impacts from this storm a bit longer than previous snow storms. If we do in fact get that much snow on top of what we got today, it would take a big warm-up to melt all of it before Christmas! HERE WE GO!!
Love ya Don, and think you're by far the best on tv.....but look for a good 7-11" of snow Buffalo.
Hey don, Thanks for the good news!! YaY for snow in Buffalo! i hope my street will get plow before the next storm!!!
Don,
We got a little rain tonight in North Boston, is there any in the forecast for tomorrow, or just snow showers?
Yay Snow!! Getting the Gravely Ready for plow/snowblowing. I hope we get hit hard. also Don your doing a great job as always!
A group of us are headed for Cleveland early Sunday morning--will we encounter any travel issues along the I 90-- I'm hoping we'll beat the storm there.
We're leaving around 6:00AM
This might be a big storm, Some things i look at on the radar when storms come.... will the leading edge of the storm enter the area fast? or does some dry air take over for a while and kill the leading edge. I have seen that plenty of things. also.. how long would it take for the rap around or the end of the storm to leave the area. sometimes we get some lake help. Those are some things i really want to see take action in this storm.
Don—
Do you think the factors of this major storm (lots of snow and strong winds) could possibly end up with a blizzard warning for WNY?? Why, or why not. AND is all of WNY going to see relatively the same snowfall amounts, or will there be a possibility for more snow in certain parts of WNY than others?
Thanks! *Bill from Amherst
Anonymous heading to Cleveland: Right now, I'd say leaving at 6am Sunday is a BAD idea. Every indication right now is that travel will be extremely difficult, with considerable blowing snow on top of the heavy accumulations.
CAUTIONARY NOTES for the snow freaks here: The 18z GFS takes the storm a little further east, which would hold accum down just a bit. The 12 Canadian GEM brings the storm close enough that warm air mixes in and that could cause S+ to be replaced by Sleet or Freezing Rain for a time.
Most models, however, when you use an ensemble approach do point to a range of 8-16". The NAM, which had been a weak outlier yesterday, has now joined the fray Full Tilt and is suggesting more than 1 foot for us.
tony1983 raises a good point about possible erosion of the leading edg of snow by dry air in place--which will be the case on Saturday.
Bottom line: Quite Heavy Snow looks likely, but anybody who thinks "it's a lock" at this point just isn't aware of or taking account of the many variables which go into forecasting snow.
I'm not even going to discuss the possibility of a blizzard until I see wind numbers on Friday, Bill.
Fine points are simply out of reach when the upper level disturbance is over AZ, as is the case right now.
Can't answer your questions tonight, sorry.
"tony1983 raises a good point about possible erosion of the leading edg of snow by dry air in place--which will be the case on Saturday."
Yup.. and i have seen this many,many times. where the forecast would call for a bigger amount of snow and it doesnt happen because the leading edge takes so long to get into the area. Thats just something i think we need to keep our eye on when the storm nears.
Don and channel 4 drew
Excellent job on forecasting our lastest weather situation with this weekend upcomeing weather looks like a busy weekend in the weather dept. still a lot of time before we feel the impact in wny Petie
Thank you Don for the heads up on changing our travel plans to Cleveland on Sunday.....as soon as I read your comments I went to a travel website to book a room for us.
Do feel that traveling back from the game on Sunday evening will be much safer?
I have also read comments about rain and sleet during the storm...should we be wearing rain gear, blizzard gear, or a combination of the 2 at the game?
This weather blog is awesome--can you imagine if the people of New Orleans had something like this prior to Katrina making landfall.
Regards
People along the Gulf Coast had prior warning about Hurricane Katrina, and it was well-known prior to landfall that it would be deadly. It crossed Florida before intensifying over the Gulf. Most of the people who stayed behind didn't have the means to evacuate, and I imagine may not have had the resources to access an Internet blog, either. Granted, Katrina was one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the US in a long time, but I don't know if a blog like this would have been particularly useful. Most of the important storm and evacuation information would be easier accessed via radio or tv.
Just my opinion.
Bills Fan I can't speak for Don but if I were you, I'd stay over Sunday night as well and think about heading back Monday at some point. Better safe than sorry-not worth getting stranded somewhere along the Thruway!
Have a safe trip!
I just read that the Hurricane Hunters are flying into the Post-Olga low that will eventually become the major player in this Nor'easter for the weekend. This will give us more accurate information about its track and intensity!
Olga's remnants will not be a major player in the development of the coastal low, but there could be some effect. Research flights are often made into major winter storms, especially nor'easters.
This morning's runs suggest accumulations in the range of 8-12" by Sunday evening, with the lower end of that range more likely for the srn tier/PA due to some IP (sleet) mixing in. Areas which stay all snow should see at least a foot, maybe a little more--especially closer to Lk Ontario, where some lake enhancement will take place. The Canadian GEM and the UKMET models do show enough warm advection into wrn & central NY where IP could become an issue, but odds currently favor that occurring S & SE of the Buffalo Stowns.
Don Paul, I've been dying to ask you to mention Ferinhight verses celsius and kelvin for temp reposting and also wasn't it you who explained there is no Celsius MI? ha ha Happy Holidays
So the buffalo Metro area will probably see a Foot of snow out of this storm no matter what then. I'm going to be in the Riverside and Tonawanda area on saturday and sunday. Cant wait!
Weather gang so happy you're there for us !!!! The phenomenom of 'GOT TO GET MILK AND BREAD ' before a storm is halarious do people really eat milk sandwiches or are they always stocked up on p.b.&j. Seriously tho i'm in lockport and there's a school dance sat. nite pick up at about9-10 p.m. bad news for driving or not? Worried mom.
I'm just waiting to see the timing , have a small gathering ( bills game party ,10-15 people , some coming from downtown)) set up in hamburg around 1130am on sunday, thinking about cancelling.
Off Topic question :
Does anyone know if its true the if you are driving in a travel ban area and get into an accident , your insurance company will not cover you? I was told this by a few people , didnt think was true.
Don---
In your last post you said, the Canadian GEM and the UKMET models do show enough warm advection into wrn & central NY where IP could become an issue... what is IP?? So you've down-grated the storm a bit? No chance for up to 18" of snow any more? I live in Getzville... is that an area that could see more snow than others? So the storm does not look as impressive to you as it did yesterday?
-Thanks, Sean
Jams: Worst case scenario would be light snow in Lockport at that hour. However, since the storm would be just starting at that point there wouldn't be much in the way of accumulations yet. However, it is looking like the snow will hold off until about midnight for the northern counties.
Anonymous: I would say by 11:30 AM on Sunday travel conditions on all area roadways will be very treacherous. Snow will be heavy at times. In addition, wind will be a factor, which will create blowing and drifting snow.
Sean,
I haven't really downgraded it materially. While I talked about a possible range of 10-16" last night (which still isn't out of the question), I have to factor in the possible IP (ice pellets, or sleet).
I've been trying to avoid going off the deep end and picking the worst case scenario because (with exceptions such as last October 13th), that scenario is seldom realized. You learn that much in 30+ years experience. Getzville might get some modest enhancement Sunday afternoon/early evening.
tony1983: that phrase "no matter what" is yours, not mine.
As I've detailed here, there are still things which can go wrong for max accumulations.
ON THE OTHER HAND, it's only fair to let you know there's a program of snow algorithms I can run privately which runs off the NAM and GFS which show more than 19 and 22" storm totals, respectively.
Because these algorithms have a very limited track record, I'm not prepared to buy them just yet. We'll see how they do with this storm.
Besides issuing a blizzard warning, what is the next extreme winter weather warning? Is it a winter storm warning, or a heavy snow warning? What type of warning do you think will be issued for WNY when the time comes? And, you don’t see the factors coming together to possibly make for a blizzard right? In order to have that we would need to have a lot of snow (which is forecasted) and strong winds, however I don’t think the winds are supposed to be any stronger than 30mph. So a blizzard is somewhat “out of the question” for WNY, would you agree?
Jim
Don- do you think all of wny will recieve ice pellets and sleet, that will hold the snow totals down? or is it just a *chance that sleet and IP could happen and hold the snow totals down?
Here is the criteria the NWS uses for a Winter Storm WARNING and Heavy Snow WARNING: (Either of the two could be the next logical upgrade from the current Winter Storm WATCH.)
WINTER STORM WARNING -- A Winter Storm Warning will be issued if conditions are forecast to meet the criteria for two seperate warnings in the next 12-24 hours. Example: If you have Heavy Snow Warning conditions along with Wind Chill Warning conditions, a Winter Storm Warning will be issued.
HEAVY SNOW WARNING -- A Heavy Snow Warning will be issued if 6 or more inches of snow is expected in a 12 hour period.
jim - i'm pretty sure that either a winter storm warning, or an ice storm warning, is the next worst thing, because they can either involve wind or significant ice accumulations.
so don paul, this is the question that has been really bugging me. its getting close, so i need you to ask honestly: in the least, COULD WE get a blizzard? there are a lot of factors going into the storm that i find will give us the worst of it, especially in Niagara County: first of all, Mike Cejka himself said that the models have been more consistent, which is slightly unusual and will give us the worst of the storm. on various websites (of which i will not say), they say this storm could be potentially paralyzing for us as we are getting at least a foot (much more up in Niagara County due to the fact that it should definitely be all snow and we are getting some lake enhancement!! :) FINALLY!! ). the other factor that has not been widely mentioned is that could be a HUGE wind producer. the weather channel said this could dip down to 962 MB! 962! thats absolutely insane! it would mean gusts up to 80 MPH! ridiculous! that's DEFINITELY a blizzard! and the thing is, we are what other websites said in the slot of worst weather where it could be an all-out blizzard. if this storm gets as strong as they think it will be, are we going to get the really strong winds? and if so, would we then be in a blizzard? man o man i am so excited to see what is going to happen, hoping for a crippling blizzard, but i want everyone to stay safe. GO SNOW!! and LETS HOPE WE GET THE WORST OF IT! :)
WeatherFreak!! Wants a Blizzard , I hope not because with this storm being on a Sunday , I tend to think alot less people will be on roads or town people to close or place bans , which could make it more dangerous ( my 2 cents). I think we need to stay calm , cool , collected , and wait til tonight or tmrw morning to see what this monster brings us.
As to someone mentioning about the insurance and driving in a ban. Most companies wont cover you , If you work , and are required to work if place isnt closed , thats another issue..
THANKS!! I def agree with wearfreak! What more do u need to have a blizzard, that we're not going to get with this storm?? AND everyone is now saying that this storm will be flat out bad! With the worst of the storm hitting buffalo up into niagara county! All meteoroligist that have given a snow total range (ex. 10-16") are going with the higher end of the snowfall totals... espicially for northren erie and niagara counties! -jim
Some people say "dont hype the storm up!" Well if this were to be a normal run-of-the-mill storm for buffalo we wouldn't "hype it up." HOWEVER this is a big hitter for buffalo and WNY! people need to know that this storm means business, and the storm DESERVES ALL THE ALLENTION IT'S GETTING!! This is not going to be a 6 inch snow event where you could go out driving if you really had to! If we in fact get as much snow as they are saying we'll get... people who don't have an suv WILL have sooo much trouble driving... if they can at all! I see that the Weather Channel is starting to put buffalo on the spot light now for this upcoming storm! What more does this storm need to have in order for it to become a blizzard for WNY? The setup is there!
-Matt
WINTER STORM WARNING NOW ISSUED FOR ALL OF WNY!
Don, what's your thoughts on the NWS issuing a blizzard watch/warning possibily tonight or tomorrow?
We will certainly have the heavy and blowing snow which more than likely will cut the visibility down to a 1/4 mile. I can see that definetly lasting the three hour required time, only thing I'm not too sure of is if we will hit the 35mph sustained or frequent gust requirement. Looks like we will have a solid 25-30mph sustained wind on Sunday, and gusts near 35, but any idea if it will be enough to maybe warrant a watch/warning for that requirement?
Was also wondering if you seen any slowing of the system (leading edge) of the precip in reaching us. Before it looked to really get going around midnight Sunday and just head downhill from there. But now it's looking to me the heavier precip is holding off for maybe another 6 - 12 or so hours?
Thanks!
A tornado went past my house a few years back and I heard about it 40 minutes later.
What I'm saying is this... There have been storms in the past, where warnings were issued too soon or (in the tornado case) too late.
I remember telling myself as I looked at the rotating clouds, "Hmm, not even a severe TS warning..maybe I'll just wait for debris to start flying and then I'll run into the basement" Soon after there were reports from Elma and Cheektowaga with funnel clouds touching down. Anyone else remember that? I remember taking 20 hours to get home the Tues. before Thanksgiving in 2001 because the weather "surprised" us, again without warning...And that dear freak storm in Oct. of 06when most property damage was ever sustained during a storm in this area and oooops! We didnt get warned...
At any rate, this storm hasnt formed yet. there are componants that still need to come together and warnings are issued, bu twhat do warnings really mean???
its possible that we get 6"...Its possible that my power goes out for a week...Warnings schmarnings. be ready for anything!
Channel 2 has buffalo in the 16-20inch range
tony1983: I refuse to comment on Ch 2's "prediction," for a number of reasons better left unsaid. Such numbers are not impossible, but the person uttering such a prediction might consider sticking with a forecast prepared by meteorologists, like the NWS.
As for the Blizzard question, I addressed that on the air a few moments ago. First of all, a Blizzard Warning should never be issued this far in advance unless the data is overwhelming that one will occur. A Blizzard is a life-threatening storm, and criteria for true blizzards are seldom met. Based on the guidance we have now, "whiteouts" and "dangerous travel" will do. Wind fields don't currently look sufficient to meet blizzard standards, so it would be irresponsible to cry "Blizzard!" unless the data supports it--which it doesn't--not yet, anyway. It's bad enough how often this word is misused by the press.
Don Paul Said:
" First of all, a Blizzard Warning should never be issued this far in advance unless the data is overwhelming that one will occur. A Blizzard is a life-threatening storm, and criteria for true blizzards are seldom met. Based on the guidance we have now, "whiteouts" and "dangerous travel" will do. Wind fields don't currently look sufficient to meet blizzard standards, so it would be irresponsible to cry "Blizzard!" unless the data supports it--which it doesn't--not yet, anyway. It's bad enough how often this word is misused by the press"
Thank you for stating this , its sounds like some people maybe trying to POSSIBLY make this storm alot worse than its going to be , but it still seems like its gonna be big one..Better safe than sorry.
Once we here its going to be a whopper , I know it's going to be big ( unless Don used that word already).
Don,
I agree with you.. Everyone has to keep in mind that not only do civilians use the warnings issued by the NWS but law enforemennt and emergency managment does as well..
There is a huge difference between a winter storm warning with blizzard like conditions at times and "blizzard warning"..
Steps are put in place based on certain warning and i can tell you i don't wish for a Blizzard warning at all.. I love snow and a bad storm but a blizzard warning is something i dont ever want to see because those people that think it is so cool are the ones that are going to be calling for help when the dont understand the true power of mother nature...
Don,
What is QPF, and how, if at all, does one equate it into potential snowfall totals?
-Matt
"Channel 2 has buffalo in the 16-20inch range"
Reading the NWS Winter Storm Warning, they seem to agree with this estimate
Yea, the NWS is putting buffalo in the 16-20" range for snowfall! At least thats what it says in the storm warning statement.
The head weather man at "channel 2" is not a REAL meteorologist! Trust the pro's! If the NWS is calling for 16-20" of snow, then that is a pretty safe bet!
Okay, at least now I know that "16-20" came from a good source. It may be a pretty good bet but, at this point, it's not a "safe" bet. Still too much chance of an elevated layer of warm air reaching us, with IP possibly getting further N & W than earlier model runs. Of course, the late night (00z) runs will be helpful.
stop talking about"blizzards" !!! mother nature reads weather blogs
:o)
Don, I think im going to go with your snowfall predictions, period! Only the best will do... this will all be over before you know it! You have done a great job so far!! So now you think the whole area will get less snow because IP's will reach all of WNY??
Sean--doesn't look like IP will get to the Niagara Frontier/metro area, but it may get close.
By the way, for those interested, I've been updated the White Christmas Chances blog each night this week.
don...
enjoy watching your forecast from the snowbelt in Barrie, Ontario, about 100 kilometres/60 miles north of Toronto. You were the first anywhere in WNY/South Ont. to give a heads up about this storm days day. We are off the hook around here for a winter storm watch--for now, but do you think any lake effect out of the northwest will set up behind the storm for your coverage area?
Don,
When you say there may be amounts lessened to the south and east of Buffalo, does that include the Southtowns, like Hamburg, or the Southern Tier closer to the PA line?
My error. I meant to say you were the first in WNY/South Ont. to give us the heads up about this storm many days AGO.
Great work Ch 4 weather team.
jp; probably not Hamburg, but I can't rule it out.
QPF stands for Quantitative Precipitation Forecast.
There will be lake effect on a NW flow as the storm pulls away but, as usual, that doesn't impact the City of Buffalo very much.
Irish pride: that 16-20 inch estimate WAS the NWS forecast, so there was no "agreement" w/Channel 2 involved. They've updated that in their late night statement to "14-22."
More cautionary notes; the 00z NAM has lowered its QPF from the 12z and 18z runs. This is a result of its having brought the parent low even further to the N & W, taking the heaviest snow to Michigan and nrn Ohio. Other models don't go quite so far with this N & W trend, which has been continuing with each run of the NAM since late Wednesday, when it was still taking the storm straight out to sea. This NAM would also bring the center of low pressure close enough to us so that windspeeds would not be all that strong (15-25 mph).
Am I buying the NAM? No, not as the most likely solution, but this trend is a good reason for me not to up the ante on my accumulation forecast very much (which was 10-14" w/locally higher amts north toward Lk Ontario, and lesser amts where sleet mixes in to the south).
In any case, this will be a genuinely disruptive storm making for difficult to treacherous travel on Sunday into early Sunday evening.
Hey Marshall Stack,
You're right --there was significant warning pertaining to Katrina--and unfortunately people who couldn't, or didn't have the means to properly evacuate the affected area- suffered the consequences of the storm. I guess I'm thankful that WIVB TV has this blog and that so much technical weather information is available.
We are leaving for Cleveland Saturday afternoon--may be not returning till Monday AM.--I'm bringing my laptop.
Go Bills
Ok I feel alot better now that Don siad our storm is going to be a whopper , still tryin to figure if should cancel my small gathering ( bills game party ,10-15 people , some coming from downtown)) set up in hamburg around 1130am on sunday.
As I walk out the door, my 11pm forecast had a sltly upped ante. I went for 12-16" Niag Frontier, with locally more closer to Lk Ontario, and 8-12" in areas s & se of metro where a few hours of IP will fall during a period of peak lift in the atmosphere.
If there were no suggestions of elevated warm advection coming in, I'd probably have gone along w/the NWS numbers. Either way, there will be enough snow & wind to make small differences in accumulations nearly meaningless.
For the "freaks", there were no signs in the late evening model runs of winds sufficient to mention the word "Blizzard."
Have fun, folks!
Well,maybe those guys who were complaining on the Buffalo news site last week about crying wolf will think twice if this turns out to be that bad.
GEE maybe I should get bread and milk!I was 5 during the blizzard and my dad was a truck driver stranded in Cleveland.Not because of snow there but wouldnt let him in here to get home.She didnt drive and had no car and the nearest store in Newfane was a mile away.She did manage to get a ride and I think she said they cleaned them out but she did get BREAD AND MILK.I now pick on that but in reality,lucky she did.The house we lived in lost electricity and had no heat.We had no way to cook and had to sleep together on the floor.So those sandwiches and cereal came in handy for us 3 kids.So as much as I pick and think they are ridiculous I know back then you had to.Especially since then because that one taught us you never know how bad it will get and how long before you can get to the store again!
I just hope those complainers are listening this time or they will be stranded on the 33 yelling like I said they would.
I am getting 'scared'.The other day I was joking about a good storm for Lockport and the more I hear the more worried I get.I live in a trailer with a poor furnace on its last legs,no way to get it fixed or afford it,no telephone(I have internet only right now due to bills and lack of use)and no way to call for help if something happens.I hoping for alot of snow because I like it but in truth our roof leaks too,so wishing for a 'good one' is quickly being replaced with miss us please?!? I have only ever been scared of the winter weather here once and that was getting stranded walking on the way home from school with a bad storm they let us out for and the person i was with had to keep dragging me because I was so cold my legs wouldnt move!
"THE SNOW MAY TAPER OFF FOR A TIME LATE SUNDAY MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON AS IT MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO SLEET...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT IT WILL PICK UP AGAIN DURING THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY AND COLDER AIR
ADVECTS BACK IN. "
Now there saying its going to taper off for a little bit. thought it was going to be none stop snow through the day.
Saturday AM scoop on this Winter Storm: A Winter Storm WARNING goes into effect tonight at 10pm and goes until 7AM Monday AM for our entire viewing area. Snow will begin first for the Southern Tier late this afternoon and spread quickly toward the NE. Snow will overspread all of WNY between 8pm and midnight. Overnight snow accumulations will range between 3-6 inches. Snow will change over to a mixed form primarily across the S. Tier and NPA by daybreak, which will help keep total accumulations down. I just want to note that travel conditions will become treacherous on Sunday. The wind will pick up which will lead to blowing and drifting snow. Whiteout conditions are likely to occur. Any mixed precip will turn back over to snow by Sunday afternoon/evening and persist through Monday AM. When it is all said and done we'll have 12-18 inches in parts of N. Erie and the northern counties. Greatest snowfall accumulations will be along Lake Ontario where there will also be lake enhancement. 6-12in will fall across the S. Tier and NPA. The lower end of that range will likely occur in NPA and possibly Allegany county where they will see the longest period of mixed precip. Nonetheless SIGNIFICANT snowfall accumulations will be seen across all of WNY & NPA. If you can, do all your errands and travelling today, and try to stay off the roads tomorrow.
Will Orchard Park be getting the same amount of snow as Buffalo or will we get a lot less? We've been left out from the other storms that we have just had because we're either too far north or too far south.
Okay so I'm in a slight dilemma: tomorrow I have to work 11:30-7 (kinda pissed about that), so do you think i should bank on not being able to get there, or will it be that bad by that time? need i remind you that i live in Wheatfield and it is up north that the storm is going to be at its worst. now they're saying 14-22 inches for our area! sweeeeeeet! i'm hoping for the biggest storm possible, they say this could be the worst one in years!!
What about OP?:
Snowfall accumulations will all depend on whether mixed precip gets as far north as Erie county. A few of the ensembles as well as our Super Microcast ARE indicating a brief period of mixed precip gets as far north as the metro. This will hold accumulations to the lower end of the range. Having said that OP should see accumulations around a foot give or take a couple. If mixed precip does get into OP, you may see more along the lines of 10 in.
(On a side note: the longest periods of mixed precip will be along the NPA line.)
Weatherfreak:
The worst of the storm will be here when your commuting to and from work. There will be periods of heavy snow during those hours. In addition, the winds are expected to pick up, which will make for blowing and drifting snow. Whiteouts are a definite possibility. I guess it depends what you do but I would say the weather will be bad enough that your work may close for the day. My motto is "better be safe than sorry"...I think everyone should stay off the roads as much as possible tomorrow.
hey lindsay why did the snow accumalation went down because last night the nws was predicting 16-20 inches and now they are predicitng 10-16 and u folks in weather watch 4 have upgraded the amounts to 12-18 but last night don was forecasting 10-14 here in the metro so i want to know why are this changes in the snowfall amount occuring?
For Don's 11pm Forecast he upped the ante a bit as he mentioned here in his post at midnight: "As I walk out the door, my 11pm forecast had a sltly upped ante. I went for 12-16" Niag Frontier, with locally more closer to Lk Ontario, and 8-12" in areas s & se of metro where a few hours of IP will fall during a period of peak lift in the atmosphere."
The models didn't change much, so I remained consistent. The snowfall totals didn't change much from Don's 11pm forecast.
Ayuud:
I went 6-12 for the S Tier/NPA. More along the lines of 6-9 for NPA and along the state line where they may see more prolonged mixed precip, which will keep totals down a bit. I went 12-18 for the northern counties. Up to 18 for areas close to lake Ontario shore where some lake enhancement will occur.
so lindsay in your opinion
do u think schools will be closed on monday?
Ayuud
Ayuud:
It's not my decision whether or not schools are shut on Monday. I am not familiar with the standards they use in WNY when they close the schools. I grew up in NJ, and usually for an event like this schools would be shut, but I can't comment on NY Schools.
Kid from hambugh-i live right by frontier central high school exeped right by mt. Vernon if u know were that is???from your estimnt how much total snowfall accumulation will i recive.currantly what do u suggest from this currant moment in time??? what do you suggest if it stays all snow????and what do u suggest if it goes over too sleet for a little.THANKS for your time:)
lindsay
buffalo public schools last year were closed when we received about a foot of snow during the valatines day so what i mean is that the snow will it contuniue to monday morning or just stop and the schools look at the conditions of the roads before 6 am so we may have a chance for some closings
For the snow "freaks" on this blog, the news is not good this AM--and makes me wish I'd kept my accum forecast at 10-14, rather than boosting it to 12-16 (and 10-14 will be too high in many cases), well below NWS.
The trend in nearly all models is to keep the inland low stronger longer, and to bring it further west, which will strengthen warm advection for a change to IP by AM, and maybe even freezing rain closer to PA. Moreover, this path will keep most of WNY out of the strongest winds for much of Sunday, strengthening later in the day.
Still a major storm, but every indication I see is to lessen its impact from previous forecasts to at least a limited extent.
Sorry to be Captain Bringdown, but that's the way it looks late this Saturday AM.
Hamburg should see snowfall accumulations around a foot give or take a couple. If it remains all snow you should see around 12 or 13. If some sleet mixes in I would say 8-10.
looking at the radar,it seems that some of the precp is already near the PA border line. Will this system be coming in earlier then 7pm?
aaagh this snowstorm is a major dissapoinment
what a waste of time .... what a waste of time... i knew it if u hype the storm u wont get anything
"aaagh this snowstorm is a major dissapoinment
what a waste of time .... what a waste of time... i knew it if u hype the storm u wont get anything"
Why do you think its a major dissapoinment? we weren't suppose to wake up to any snow. The snow was suppose to arrive later in the day and into tommrow morning and afternoon. Looking at the radar now,it look like a little precp is developing in front of the system. If it stays alive we could see some flakes in a next couple of hours. way before they said it was suppose to start.
i dont mean that tony i mean don said the storm will have less impact and the snowfall will be less than 10 inches..................................................
Saturday Afternoon Update: The last two model runs are brining the track of the low slightly more to the west than what was previously indicated. This means that there will be more WAA and a more significant period of mixed form of precip. The newest models are indicating that mixed precip may make it into the metro. This is going to reduce snowfall totals. Areas along the Lake Ontario shoreline are going to get the most snow, however. The Niagara Frontier will see a good foot, and maybe a little more in some localized spots. More along the lines of 6-9in for portions of the S. Tier and NPA where the precip will remain mixed the longest. Winds will be the strongest along the Lake Ontario shore on Sunday afternoon allowing for more blowing snow up in that direction.
so ya.. i guess if the mix comes into the metro area,its going to suck BIG TIME. I wanted this to be all snow and i hope it is in the metro area. i live in the riverside,tonawanda area. so lets see how it goes. Models are Models,and you dont know whats going to really happen until it does.
LSchwarzwaelder, could you give a north buffalo,tonawanda forecast and what you predict for this area?
My Official Prediction for this upcoming storm snowfall totals
1-Niagra Falls: 16-18 inches
2-Buffalo:12-16 lesser amounts s and se some localized spots may get up to 18 inches
3-Hamburg:10 inches due to some sleet mixing in the morning
4-Batavia:10-12
5-lackawanna:12 inches sleet may mix in
6-sotherntier: 6-8
7-N PA:5-7 inches with significant amount of frozen precip possible
Note: this may change as the day progresses
as of 1pm. there is some precp very close to the metro area. We should start to see some flakes soon.
Tony:
Niagara & Orleans Counties will see the most on the order of 12 with a few localized spots getting more. I would say 11 or 12 would be a good bet for the metro. Winds will be the worst along the Lake Ontario shoreline.
Ohh no! This storm seems to be getting down-grated pretty fast! Not as much snow or wind as thought??! No possibality of 14-22" in northren erie what-so-ever?! Will sleet make it into Amherst?? I hope not, because that would keep our snow totals way down!
-Jim
In fairness to Don, he was very hesitant to go with snowfall amounts topping 20 inches. I think the max he threw out at 11 pm was 18 and that was localized north of Buffalo.
This posting is from north of Toronto where we get snowsqualls like your south towns. Hope you don't mind postings from crazy canuck that values the ch 4 weather team and wishes we had the same in Toronto area. And that's the opinion of many weather watchers in the region. Toronto is preparing for the worst. Few years back after a major storm, city called in the army!
Best of luck Buffalo with the storm.