White Christmas Chances
We already had a thread on this topic, but it's buried further down now, so we'll start a new one. As of Monday night, there are indications a vigorous low will go by on Sunday, preceded by a significant warmup with rainshowers later Saturday evening into Sunday, followed by changeover to Snow Shwrs. The winds behind this frontal passage do show a southwesterly orientation, but it remains to be seen whether the boundary layer/lower atmosphere will get cold enough to generate lake effect. This morning's GFS model indicated it would remain too mild for anything significant, but the later (18z) run brings the temperatures at 850mb/5000 feet to be at least marginally cold enough for lake effect. Moisture availability remains marginal as well. Winds will veer to more northwesterly during Christmas Eve, so late Sunday/Sunday night in this 18z run would be our best chance for a fresh coat near the metro area. This far out, I hope you'll remember, lake snow with a quick moving storm system is something of a crapshoot.
posted by Don Paul at
9:57 PM
52 Comments:
So Don what yor saying is theres a possibility that lake snow will set up in the metro then shift south??? and if you were to gess i know this is way to far out but a whiled gess would we see like 2-4 or 3-6 oe 6-12 or 1-2 or what. Thanks Don keep the good news coming :)))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))
Hi Don,
Does the southwesterly flow place any snow in the southtowns. Also, do you think it wil warm up enough to melt the snowcover we have before Christmas? Thanks...
SW wind would put the snow in the metro. Something we hardly see around here. west wind usually puts it in south erie and we already know what happens with a NW wind.
Hope we finally get some major lake snow in buffalo before the lake freezes over.
Given the angle of the sun this time of year I would think it would take a major warm up in order for this current snow pack to melt--hence the chances of a white Christmas are very good.
The precise wind direction is what counts--not just SW or NW. We've explained this on earlier posts. Winds from 240 hit Amherst and miss Buffalo. 250 goes from Buffalo to Batavia. 255 is S buf to Lancaster and parts of the near Stowns. Between 255 and 258 or so focuses more on OP and E Aurora. 260 begins to drop in rural srn Erie and srn Wyoming, and 270 goes more directly into Chau/Catt cos. These are approximations, but if any of you who've just posted think we can predict these precise vectors/directions on Monday night for next Sunday night, you obviously haven't been paying attention. (And that's not including the other uncertainties I just put in this post). Try checking out the Uncertainty thread I posted today, just for philosophical reasons.
you know when the storm is imminent and all is said and done as far as deciphering the models and finding their common ground and the forecast has been made, there's really nothing left to do but watch the radar and winds and let mother nature play it out.
Mother nature is a wild creature. you may think she's going to behave in a predictable way, and many times she does, but many times, she does her own thing. Thats what I'm watching for. There's never 100% certainty in anything, ever. Especially with natural phenomenons such as the weather. There are simply too many variables in play and thats what makes it so very fascinating to me.
I'm voting for a dry Christmas simply because its much easier to lug children and presents and apple pies while I'm dressed in my Sunday best when there's no snow.
Snow the day after or even 2 days after...that would be much better to me!
Happy weather watching!
Hello. I've been lurking but I just had to ask this question:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/5e/gfsx_pres_5e.html
This is a GFS model from Unisys. This shows that clipper/disturbance coming through in 5.5 days. I looked at the same model in the last storm which had the brunt of precip falling in this area on last Sunday, whereas everyone had pinned the forecast on Sat.(splitting hairs, I know) So I thought I would check it out again to see what it showed.
I know this is a snapshot of just one model. I was just wondering what your thoughts are on it.
Thanks!
one other observation to go with that last post:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NGM_12z/ngmloopnew.html#picture
This shows a system moving in on Thursday, only 36 hours out, so why is there such a huge difference and what perameters should I use to discern which model information is valid?
This is hard work, they should pay you guys more. :o)
one more url to share:
For anyone looking for weather prediction education and resources, I'm learning a whole bunch from this site:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com
ayuud...you would dig this!
thanx so much lake shadow for that site it is great for me ,,,,,,,,,,
thanx..............
lakeshadow; I think you referred to the NGM model, from the NWS. That model is still run (a number of international users still want its statistical predictions of temperatures, precip, winds, etc), but it's the most primitive model currently out there. Most of us don't pay much attention to it these days, with much higher resolution models available to the fuzzy picture offered by the NGM (which stands for Nested Grid Model).
Dear Mr Don Paul
I'm just wondering, does this warming trend mean a return to a wild up and down winter? it seems that pacific air means warm, but like last year it seems we always have extremes. December has been cold but if it gets warm it just seems storms are much more powerful like the lake effect last year in February after the warmest december- January on record. it just seems with a warm winter things go from good to bad real quick.
MB, Thanks for starting this thread. I think it will get very interesting next Sunday as the low passes by.
Perhaps there is a possibility that the storm tracks a bit more easterly? I know its early but the probability is still there...right?
yeak i forgot to add one thing, it seems like this year the lake-effect has been weak. either by low cap levels or wind shear. we've had only one big lake effect snow or so and i'm hoping a really big one comes. More then ever i really am hoping for a white christmas. Living in the Boston hills, htey aren't hard to come by. hopefully a big one comes
marinecore3008: It does look like we're going to be on a roller coaster into and beyond the Christmas holiday. No extended cold spells, and no warm spells that last more than a few days, either. The North Atlantic Oscillation will be in its warm phase (it was briefly in a cold phase during the development and passage of the wknd storm), and the PNA will not favor a blocking ridge of high pressure over wrn No America (which forces the polar jet to dive into the central and ern states). Most of our cold shots will be just that--shots--produced by the wraparound winds behind departing areas of low pressure. The majority of these quick moving lows this season have produced more of a W or WNW backlash boundary layer wind, and it's hard to get much snow near the metro area with that kind of a setup.
This Sunday, a vigorous low will go by, preceded by a windy warmup on Saturday and part of Sunday, w/Sct Shwrs becoming more numerous later Sat night into Sunday. In this storm's wake, there may be a period for several hours of a SW or WSW cold flow before a trough passes thru and veers the winds to WNY on Christmas Eve day. So, there is at least a chance we could get a period of lake snow near the metro area Sunday evening, with these gusty winds. Monday will bring Sct Lake Snow Shwrs on a WNW flow, with more accumulation in the hills well south. A few leftover snow shwrs may still be with us on Christmas, but nothing significant. The Climate Prediction Ctr has us at risk of "Heavy Lake Snow" during this period in their Weather Hazards discussion. However, unless I see signs of a lengthier period of winds coming up the axis of Lk Erie, rather than the short fetch WNW flow we've seen so often this year, I'm not prepared to go along with that assessment of "heavy" snow. We'll see how the next few model runs go, of course.
Sunday snows...I see a pattern starting to develop. (you know like the period of time in Summer when it rained every saturday for a month?)
Quick question on climatology as we approach the winter solstice...
Why is it that the temps keep falling throughout the winter months in the N. Hemisphere eventhough the daylight is increasing after the solstice? Shouldn't radiational heating warm up the earth's surface? or is all the snow keeping the temps down? (even so, some solsticices come and go without snow..) so what keeps the cooling throughout the remaining winter months?
thanks again!
Lakeshadow, There is essentially a lag time. A simple analogy would be a pot of water on the stove. When you turn the burner on even though the flame is hot it takes time for the water to heat up. After it reaches boiling and you turn the stove off it remains hot for a while and slowly cools off. Also think of lake Erie. We get our maximum insolation in June yet, the lake does not reach its maximum temp. until later in the summer and vice versa.
Thanks for filling in, Nick!
The morning run of the GFS model makes lake effect potential Sunday evening look less impressive, with only a brief residence time for any SW winds. The earlier run of the European model still shows a period of WSW winds for Sunday night.
But the GFS now shows a vigorous wave moving up to the west of us on Christmas Day which, if verified, would bring us snow or another mixed bag of widespread precipitation. On the other hand, the earlier run of the European shows no such development.
The models giveth and the models taketh away....
And the models driveth me crazy!!
Thanks Nick for that answer. It makes perfect sense.
Thanks for the update, Don. Geez its a yucky day today...so gray and dark. blah!
DP,
I can see the 500 mb plots on the GFS modelshowing exactly what you said. I think everyone is hoping for some late dramatics to get the Low to track way way further east and then stall out above us with some nice 250-255 winds..
http://www.weather.unisys.com/gfsx/4e/gfsx_500p_4e.html
Don,
Why is it that when it's snowmobile season the snow leaves? I know you can't answer that, but keep the snow coming PLEASE!!!
Patti in Centerville
Dear Mr. Don:
I was hesitiating to mention this. but actually as I was looking back at some old pictures I found one interesting one. Actually I found a picture with me and you. I was in second grade and you came to St. Bernadette's. I know you probably don't remember it but I thought,I'd just,you know mention that. On the other hand. I might point out as my friends varified some ice now on the Lake Erie shoreline, yikes that's bad news for my hopes to have a big lake effect event. Oh well its WNY things can change.
marinecore3008: I have a vague memory of being there, only because it's the only visit I've made there.
Don't worry TOO much about the lake yet--one benefit of a Pacific/zonal flow is that the cooling of the lake will slow down; it's going to take awhile to ice up.
Susan Lo Tempio of the Buffalo News now has a blog on their "Weather Vein Blog" that local weathercasters are making too big a deal over whether or not we're going to have a White Christmas. Agree or disagree? Feel free to visit their lonely weather blog, on the Buffalo News website, under Blogs (on the banner).
Things are not looking up for snow lovers who really want a White Christmas. The lake effect potential on Sunday night has gone way down, with the GFS nearly killing it and taking away any SW boundary layer wind. Showers will turn to Snow Shwrs during Sunday, but accumulations look to be very minor. Currently, both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day look to be mainly dry and seasonably cold. The GFS now has a storm system coming up in our direction later Christmas night, with some snow or mixed precip, but the European and other models keep that low suppressed further to the south.
Whatever crusty snow survives the moderating trend on Saturday and th limited rainfall later in the evening into Sunday AM will still be there for Christmas, but additional new snow may be hard to squeeze out of this synoptic pattern. The NAO remains in its warm phase, and the PNA remains negative as well. Extended cold spells are unlikely during the next week, but it will be getting somewhat colder Sunday into midweek next week.
Now hold on one minute here. There are various websites hinting at a VERY stormy pattern next week that could mean SIGNIFICANT SNOW. Don't believe me? Check out http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/ and we are included right in the area of heavy snow, dec 23rd to 24th. i know its far out, but is there a possibility of a winter storm on christmas or christmas eve? my gosh that would seriously make me the happiest person in western new york. they still say there will be a warmup on sunday and then turning sharply colder, so whats going on? is there another storm that is not being mentioned? or is that the same storm, and theyre just predicting it to go slower? slightly confused, but all the more excited. ill def be glued to the TV the next week! GO SNOW!!
I'm all for snow but hope it's relatively calm for the end of next week (28th), since am expecting a friend flying in from overseas.
Don,
I see that Late Christmas LOW, as you mentioned, on the GFS 300 mb plot but not on the 500mb plot. Which mb plots should I look at for tracking storms on the model?
Thanks!!
weatherfreak!
In case you didn't notice, the Buffalo NWS doesn't agree with that CPC Heavy Lake Snow prediction either. A late night model run of the NAM shows limited potential for some lake snow late Sunday, with the air drying out later at night into Christmas Eve. There is a chance of a low pressure system moving our way late Christmas Night into Wed AM with snow or mixed precip.
Calm down, weatherfreak. And please don't presume you have some source I don't have--because you don't.
blizzard, you should be looking at the surface panel. The upper air information really requires some education in understanding--you can find some of that information on the very good Jeff Haby site posted yesterday.
Thanks Don!
Can you name a good meteorology text book that I can read to fully understand meterology. I have a degree in science/engineering.
Doesn’t look like anything exciting happening in the weather department any time soon…
Don,
You mentioned to Lakeshadow that Unisys' GFSx was probably the NGM. Actually it's the old 10-day MRF model and is run once per day on Unisys' own hardware (00Z), hence it's GFS"X". I've been using the stuff there for years (long before NOAA had model data/graphics available). Hence it will have some variance with the new 15 day GFS coding.
Ok, either the GFS is taking a vacation from reality or there's a whopping uncertainty as to what the next few days will bring us. I've looked at ten different forecasts with Don's and NWS being the closest in comparison but the others all doing something different.
I guess this is the artsy part of forecasting that MB mentioned.
Still hoping for a DRY christmas!!! Too much going on...snows nice, but it'll be a LONG winter, so snow freaks...be patient. soon enough you will be cursing the snow!
The last 3 runs of the NAM are now more favorable to some lake effect snow setting up by and during Sunday evening, with gusty winds. Boundary layer looks to be more SWly or WSWly. We'll see how the morning run of the GFS matches up a little later.
btw..that unisys GFSX was right on about the timing and placement of that last nor'easter on the 10 day outlook when I was watching it about 2 weeks ago. I dont know if that was luck or coincidence, but its only flaw was that it had the low off of NE bombing out way more than it really did.
Just an observation. Perhaps I've missed something?
don....my wife and i are new to this area. This is our 3rd winter here. We are transplants from the midwest, Oklahoma, Kansas and Nebraska via several years in Las Vegas, Southern California, and Arizona. The weather patterns in the western united states, most generally, are not a huge issue other than the heat. However, while living in the midwest we were very dependent on the forecasters in supplying correct and valuable information, specifically during the spring storm season. We tried to follow the weather on other local stations in WNY and found that we are most comfortable with the way you present the weather to the public. So keep up the good work and your style of forecasting in WNY. Mike H.
Test
After this brief thaw what are the chances for at least one night to get down to 15 degrees or so to freeze backyard rink. Best time to use rink is christmas holidays.
Thanks!!!!!
Looking at the GRF NMM for Monday... looks interesting.
here's a url:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRF_6z/wrf84.html#
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/
~gadomski/WRF_6z/wrf84.html#
this blog has a hard time with displaying entire url's here's another try...I had to start a new line so if you copy-n-paste, you'll have to fix the space between the edu/ and ~gadomski.
oops, that was WRF.. he, he, he...
You can also look at the GFS and NAM directly from the NWS or through the University of Michigan weather site. These models are displayed in various forms right on the NWS Buffalo homepage in the left margin, from NCEP--the National Centers for Environmental Prediction--at NWS HQ.
Hey Don do you think that Sunday will have the higher wind speeds on Lake Erie, for this weekend?
Which day looks best for wave heights on Lake Erie?
Thank You and Holiday Greetings.
15-20kts from the SSW Saturday; 20-35 kts from the WSW by later Sunday into the evening.
Thank You sir. I'll let you know how big the waves were on Sunday in Lake Erie.
Sorry I got too hyper :(
I guess the chances of a white Christmas are dwindling :(
I didn't mean to be offensive heck yes youre more knowledgeable and have WAY mroe equipment
ill try 2 b more careful next time
merry christmas
Don-
I think this late fall season has been pretty decent. Snowfall has been modest and even this past Sunday's storm was not devastating as other storms of the past.
What are your guesses for the Ice bowl day? The NOAA site has been keeping us quite a bit above normal past the New Year but the NAO is suppose to go Negative then too so I am not sure what will happen.
Carm; The NAO is run off an ensemble of GFS models, not just the operational run of the GFS which is on websites. When you look at the ensemble (which looks like a spaghetti plot), some runs have the NAO remaining positive/warm, and some have it negative/cold. You can only surmise from that a CHANCE of it going negative, but a nearly equal chance of it staying positive.
My first guess about the Ice Bowl is that it will be sufficiently cold near that date--if not on it-- to keep the icing operations going okay. I see no sign of another 59 degree New Year's Day.
well now the entire niagara frontier is under a LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH, so i see the chances for a white christmas becoming a little brighter after all :)
tis the season to snow
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