A White Christmas for Many, but a Price to Pay

The Sunday-Sunday Night storm is shaping up to be a more dramatic system. Saturday night, winds will strengthen out of the SSE to 25-35, but with gusts to 45+ on the hilltops and along the L Erie shoreline. These winds will push temps up into the low/mid 50s by Sunday morning. Showers will increase later Sunday morning, and there may be a gusty tstorm as a sharp cold front crosses the region during early afternoon. SW winds will strengthen behind the front to at least 25-40 during the course of the Bills game, with gusts to over 45 by late afternoon. Precipitation will temporarily taper off as a "dry slot" behind the front takes over. Lake effect snow will gradually develop during the evening (if not very late afternoon) and pick up as some moisture gets back into the flow. The newest NAM model run suggests winds from 240 degrees much of the overnight, which would deliver much of the snow into the Northtowns (Amherst, Clarence), nrn Genesee, srn Orleans & southernmost Niagara Cos. The GFS seems to run more along a 250 vector, with a more rapid veering to 260 by and during the morning. 250 favors Buffalo.

Limiting factors: Wind shear at the outset, and dry air into early evening, before some more humidity returns later in the evening.

There is also some potential for Sunday afternoon & evening winds to go from being merely strong to High Winds (a severe weather term) which would pose the threat of localized property damage and increase shear. At this midday point, the High Wind looks like a 40 yes/60 no probability. The late night NAM will help with this factor.