Winter Storm Watch No Longer...Winter Weather Advisory Posted
Late this afternoon, the Winter Storm Watch became null and void for WNY. A Winter Weather ADVISORY remains posted for the entire region until late Sunday afternoon. It's a very complex scenario over the next couple of days. First, light snow will overspread WNY overnight...temps overnight will rise through the teens and 20s. We will get some accumulation...by no means a major snowfall event...a few inches for the metro area northward and perhaps slightly more south, certainly enough to make for slippery travel. During the early morning, snow is expected to mix with or change to a wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain. At 10pm tonight, temps in the southern tier were already in the low 20s, but the farther north you go, the colder it is. With the warm front buldging northward, I would expect more icing in the southern tier for a short while. Yes, the entire region should experience the wintry mix changeover during the first half of the day tomorrow...but with temps warming into the mid to upper 30s later in the day...all liquid is on the way for the evening hours. Precip may taper off for little while tomorrow, but rain's moving in tomorow evening. When the cold front finally pushes through tomorrow night...another interesting setup is on the way....cold, strong winds and general snow showers in time for the Monday morning commute. Winds may gust as high as 50mph for the start of the week. Some earlier model runs had me thinking the metro area would get a brief, quick hit of lake snow, but the latest runs showing good lake snows setting up in ski country and the southern tier on Monday. Stay tuned!!
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
10:40 PM
22 Comments:
Thanks for your post, MB! So If I'm understanding your post, you think the snows are staying to the south on Monday with no shot towards metro? What is the wind direction forecast?
btw...It was funny today on the 6pm broadcast... you got all giddy with the thought of a big snow storm... :o)
We are getting a little snow down hear in Ashville.It looks like there is a little sleet with it now.
Hello,
I have a quick question on the potential for significant snows for Monday..
Early this morning the NWS issued a Lake Effect Snow Watch for Southern Erie, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties, however on every model that i am showing including BUFKIT is showing a a decent band setting up over the hills of Southern Erie and right over Arcade where i live..
I am just wondering how much snow you think I should get here in my backyard. IT is sometimes hard to tell with warning as i am right on the fringe of the county. 30 FT west of my back yard is Catt county and 100 FT N is Erie..
and with me living in Arcade very tough sometimes to get the correct forecast.....
Thanks
Redog26: As for Monday...Rain should changeover back to snow around 3am...and then we will get the "wrap-around" snow on the back edge of the low pressure system. That will bring snows to ALL of WNY during the AM hours. This Low is expected to intensify off of the New England coast which will bring a WNW wind into WNY. The majority of the snow will be confined to Chaut & Catt co's as well as Warren and McKean in PA where I went with 5-9 between Monday and Tuesday. However, I did go 2-4 for the metro (due to the wrap-around) and I think you could see somewhere between 4-6 if I had to make a guess. What is also going to be a concern on Monday is the WIND. Winds will be quite brisk with gusts up to 50mph possible, so blowing snow and reduced visibilities will become an issue.
Lindsey, sounds like we may possibly get high wind advisories or warnings as well. Any possibility that the winds + snow fall rates will constitute blizzard criteria? Monday PM through Tuesday PM sounds like it will be nasty down here in Jamestown. So far only an inch is here now with sleet/snow/freezing precip combo now.
str
hi guys last night snowstorm was great and i live in west buffalo and i just measured 5.6 inches of snow to 6.0 and about tommorow what can we expect for the metro
Ayuud
Lindsay, sorry I misspelled your name!
str
Here in Eden Ny we only got 3 inches. Any of that snow your talking about going to impact Eden a little more?
Very dangerous conditions ahead for tomorrow, but I'm wondering where all the rain is? Seemed as of late last night the rain was to surelly come. Its spotty precip on the Doppler radar. The precip seems to be coming from due west yet the wind guage says 5mph from SSE. I thought that was odd.
Drive time is going to be extremely tricky tomorrow morning. Please keep us posted of where the snows are concentrated, when they will be moving and how the road conditions are.
Any chance of oscillation with this snowfall? I hope not! :0)
As of 3pm... There is a significant shield of rain now moving throguh Michigan and just starting to make its way into S. Ontario. You will see the rain! :) It will arrive within the next couple hours or so. Super Microcast was indicating a small break in the precip this afternoon...but there is more to come !
As for wind...The State College NWS issued a Wind Advisory for Potter & McKean counties that goes in effect 7AM Monday and goes through 7pm. They are expecting sustained winds between 25 and 35 with gusts up to 45 & 50. So in terms of Advisories in WNY, I wouldn't be shocked if some sort of Wind criteria was met on Monday, because we will also see gusts up to 50mph. As for meeting blizzard criteria? I wouldn't bet on it...as its VERY hard to do! Here is what constitutes a Blizzard: "BLIZZARD WARNING -- A Blizzard Warning will be issued when the following conditions are forecast to last at least 3 hours. Falling and/or blowing snow frequently reducing visibility to < 1/4 mile AND sustained winds or frequent gusts > 35 mph."
Here's the latest: Widespread rain arrives this evening with mild temps in the upper 30s to low 40s. Rain will change to snow overnight toward morning. Perhaps a trace to an inch accumulation by morning. Winds pick up in time for the Monday morning commute. General light snow showers (trace-2 or 3" metro). Lake snow sets up first in the southtowns, then sinks into ski country and the so. tier where 4-8" of snow is expected. I do expect some white-out conditions on north-south roads especially in favored lake snow locations. Occasional snow showers are likely in the metro area tomorrow night, with perhaps 1-3 inches, heavier lake snow across ski country and the southern tier should give them an extra 4-8 inches. Great news for the ski resorts!
In Eden NY...the snow will be over for today, but you will see some periods of rain within a few hours. This will then changeover to snow overnight and you'll see some more snow tomorrow. S. Erie county has been included in the Lake Effect Snow Watch for tomorrow. You should pick up several more inches...I would say on the order of 5 or 6...
lakeshadow: wind direction tomorrow is west to wnw to nw. No real lake snow for the metro, but there will be occasional snow showers making for some accumulation as listed in my previous post. I forgot to mention, there may be a few multiple lake snow bands on the south shores of lake ontario by tomorrow night with a nw wind...could see a connection with lake huron and Georgian Bay!
BTW, you say I was "giddy"! Not really, just super excited about the changing weather! Yahoo!
Attention Snow Spotters! We need your help! If you enjoy measuring the snow, you can register to be an official snow spotter with the Buffalo National Weather Service. They disseminate this information to the media. Here's the URL...you can cut and paste it on to your browser...
http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/spotter_form.htm
Wahoooo : Winter Storm Warning now , Wonders if Hamburg is on Target.Ohh wait kids would have to stay home , but doesnt sound like will start early enough.
Any early ideas about the Storm on the west coast?
Thanks Lindsay, I know that I have seen the criteria for a blizzard many times over the years, but I needed a refresher. Sounds nasty. let's not do that :-)
str
As for snow spotting, I have done this for the NWS for 11 years and it's a lot of fun believe it or not. I too would encourage anyone who has any interest in our weather to participate.
str
Mary Beth, you said that there could be a connection with lake huron. Would any of that snow reached western niagara county?
Sure, some of it may with several inches. However, I don't believe it will be as significant as across ski country and the southern tier. Still, with strong winds, even light snow showers around will may for tricky travel.
Thanks for the snowspotting plug, Strbuk!
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