A Strengthening La Nina means an easier winter?

La Nina, which is the opposite (cold) phase from El Nino (warm) phase in the tropical Pacific, is what we've got for this winter. I won't bury you with all the complex jargon as to what precisely El Ninos and La Ninas mean in detail, but I will tell you these distant phenomena have worldwide weather effects, including in our viewing area. A strong El Nino (such as in the late 90s) generally is a reliable signal from nature that we can expect a milder and drier winter than normal. In that late 90's event February, for example, brought only .25" of snow to the Buffalo airport, and people were jogging in their shorts in mid-winter. So shouldn't the opposite occur when we have a strengthening La Nina? Statistical research, much of it done by meteorologist Bob Hamilton at the Buffalo National Weather Service, shows that's not usually the case. His examination of past La Nina years shows little correlation with colder winters and moderate La Ninas in WNY. Weak to moderate La Ninas, in fact, have been associated with warmer than average winters here.

Right now, we have a moderate La Nina which is still strengthening. With that in mind, the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center projects decent odds for much of the lower 48 to have a milder than average winter, with no region likely to have a colder than average winter. In my own Preliminary Winter Outlook (wivb.com, Weather Page, lower left) however, I made note of another phenomenon which occurs over the North Atlantic, called the North Atlantic Oscillation. This oscillation, like that in the Pacific, has a Cold/Negative and Warm/Positive phase. When the NAO goes Cold/Negative it can overwhelm, for a few weeks at a time, the otherwise warm pattern over the NE and eastern Canada. Somewhere along the line this cold weather season, I would expect the NAO to go Cold/Negative at least twice. For those time periods, that would bring us much more wintry conditions. As of this posting, there are no clear signs of the NAO going Cold/Negative in the next 2 weeks. As soon as I see such a sign, I'll let you know ASAP.

Snow Spotters

Snow still gets measured the old-fashioned way--with a ruler. Actually, when there's a snowfall where you live, if you want to email us your snow measurement, try to find a level area which doesn't appear to have been affected by drifting snow. We recommend you take 3 measurements in that area and calculate an average depth.

Although 4Warn Doppler Radar has an exclusive tool called Snow Vision, which estimates ground snow depth by precipitation intensity and atmospheric (and surface) temperatures, we still need "ground truth" supplied by hand measurements. In fact, we frequently pass on your numbers to our colleagues at the National Weather Service Buffalo Forecast Office.

So, yep. Even with 4Warn Doppler's Snow Vision, we still need your help. Thanks!

This round of Lake Effect Snow

will again be elevation-driven. That is, if you live in Dunkirk or Ripley, you're not likely to see too much accumulation. But some of the higher ridges in Chau & western Catt Cos could see more than 6" by mid morning Friday, and another 2-4" in spots during the day. Only lighter snow shwrs or snow & rain shwrs are likely on the Niagara Frontier. The NW flow will bring in occasional lake snow streamers from Lake Huron, as well as Lake Erie. Bottom line: coverage, even in Chau & Catt Cos where a Lake Snow Warning is in effect, will be spotty and uneven.

Ice Boom & Ice on Lake Erie

To our friend Junius (and other interested parties):

Lake Erie is oriented from SW to NE, which parallels our most common wind direction. Because the lake narrows at the eastern end, into the Niagara River, those SW winds always jammed ice into the NE tip of the lake long before an ice boom was even contemplated. In fact, the "last day of ice" in the harbor has actually dropped one day back since the advent of the boom. That's not a significant change but, on the other hand, there is no evidence the ice boom lengthens the stay of ice at our end of the lake.

Welcome to the WeatherWatch 4 Buffalo Weather Blog!

Welcome! The meteorologists of WeatherWatch4 are genuinely excited to invite your participation in our brand new weather blog. We intend to offer you more detailed discussions on ongoing and upcoming weather events and patterns, and we hope you'll offer us your thoughts and questions.

We can't always explain all weather phenomena on the air, and this will give us the opportunity to satisfy the curiosity of the many viewers who have a strong interest in meteorology. Lindsay, Mike, Mary Beth and I all have a passionate interest in our work. So, this is a fine opportunity for us to share some of our excitement with you.

A few ground rules: All posts must be civil, and we reserve the right to edit or delete inappropriate remarks. We want to keep this as a friendly forum. If you have a criticism (what meteorologist isn't going to get criticized?), please keep it polite. Of course, we'll do the same.

We will try to respond to your posts as promptly as possible. However, our primary mission is to forecast the weather for our viewers, so there may occasionally be a short delay in a response.

We will try to make our answers as authoritative as possible, based on accepted scientific principles. But in real science, if we are uncertain about an answer, it's our job to tell you we're uncertain.

We know from audience research here in WNY and around the country that the public's interest in weather is enormous, and we hope to satisfy at least a part of that interest.

That's it for the introduction. Let's get going!

Don Paul
Chief Meteorologist, WIVB WeatherWatch 4