WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY Sunday

A Winter Weather Advisory goes into effect tomorrow for all of WNY and Northern PA. System pushing up from the Ohio Valley...warm air aloft and shallow cold air at the surface. Travel will turn slippery in many areas as the day goes on, as a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain are in the works. We're not expecting heavy accumulations, but when it comes to ICE, all it takes is a little bit for cars and people to go flying. The first places to see the precip are Northern Pennsylvania and the southern tier...that'll happen in the early morning hours. The mix will then spread northward throughout all WNY later on, with the intensity picking up in the late afternoon/evening. Not trying to sound alarmist here! Just encouraging folks to use extra caution on the roads...and sidewalks.

Buffalo News on an anti-tv Weather Tear?

The Buffalo News, coincidentally or not, seems to be on a tear against local tv weathercasters and meteorologists. Between Alan Pergaments ill-informed periodic rants against tv weather, and 2 new entries yesterday and today, it's hard for me to avoid that hypothesis.

Yesterday, Susan LoTempio started a blog thread on their webpage denouncing tv stations and weathercasters in general for overdoing the crawls during wintry weather outbreaks. When I reminded her and some posters that those crawls are generated by official National Weather Service Watches, Warnings, and Advisories--the communication of which is part of our defined obligation to use the public airwaves--it seemed to go in one ear and out the other with both her and some angry posters. Some of the latter went off on tangents about local tv hype in general, and forgot it is our RESPONSIBILITY to keep the public informed of weather threats issued by your tax supported NWS--the best government weather service in the world.

Then, in today's paper, I saw a series of short interview snippets conducted by reporter Anne Neville in which every person used in the article was anti tv weather.

We--meteorologists and non-meteorologists- certainly have our foibles and are not above criticism. But the tenor of some of what I'm seeing in the Buffalo News flies in the face of overwhelming audience research conducted by virtually every tv station in the U.S. That is, in terms of content, weather is the #1 reason people watch local news--even in "quiet" weather markets, let alone Buffalo and Oklahoma City. If we were as inept as portrayed by Pergament and these new entries, that would not be the case.

It's unfortunate that the News weather blog was originally to be led by Jay Bonfatti, a responsible and knowledgeable weather enthusiast, but now it's degenerated into something a little less responsible and useful.

My paranoid delusion: the Buffalo News knows weather is one element in which they're at a huge disadvantage with local tv. We are competitors, true. But in other cities, more enlightened policies have actually forged links between local professional tv meteorologists and the newspaper(s). I doubt that's going to happen here anytime soon.

White Christmas Chances This Year

At this point in early December, most of what I can tell you is based on climatology. As NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Tom Niziol reminded me today at a meeting, Buffalo's chance for a White Christmas is 56%, based on our climate records. As for actually trying to predict the event for THIS year on December 5, would you be shocked if I told you it's still too early?

Our pattern will be very changeable next week and probably the week after, with occasional quick shots of cold weather carried in by waves in the jetstream, but with milder Pacific air also making several visits--more of a modified roller coaster, rather than an extended cold period as we've been having.

The North Atlantic Oscillation/NAO has gone back to a positive/warm phase. The predictive NAO index shows a trend toward going back to a negative/cold phase later in the month. However, the other near term indices we look at--the Arctic Oscillation (negative means cold) and the PNA index which determines chances for a strong ridge to build up over western North America (and thereby increase the chances for a cold longwave trough of low pressure to develop in eastern North America) are out of sync with the NAO going into mid-December. There is just barely a hint that the PNA will begin to go back to its positive phase (in the PNA case, that's colder for the east) later in the month, but that's not enough to make a call on the pattern 3 weeks out. Natch, as soon as I see some things start to solidify --or not solidify--I'll give you my thoughts ASAP.

Tour the News 4 Weather Center with Don Paul

What do you think about the News 4 Weather Central?

Snow Lovers-Enjoy it while you have it!

While lake snow will continue through Tuesday, heavier in the higher terrain, and also with some moderate snow to the NE of the metro area, a significant pattern change is already showing up. The NAO goes positive and the PNA goes negative. Bottom line: a more zonal flow sets up across the lower 48 late in the week, and then an upper level ridge will build over the east, allowing temps to return to above normal by later in the weekend and early next week. This doesn't mean it's going to stay warm indefinitely--there are signs of waves in the upper level flow will will allow short cooldowns next week, but the polar jet will not stay in the same NW to SE alignment we've seen recently for any extended period in the foreseeable (2 weeks) future.

Snow Spotters Unite!

A Lake Effect Snow Warning continues in progress through tomorrow afternoon for So. Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany, Wyoming counties and McKean Co, PA. With heavy snowfall totals expected in spots, Snow Spotters unite! Thanks to those of you who've called in your reports so far today. However, it would incredibly helpful if you would measure your snow SEVERAL times a day and keep the updates going with NWS and the media. You can think of it as eating three meals a day...breakfast, lunch and dinner...measure in the morning, afternoon and evening! This way, we have a more accurate, representative picture of who's getting what especially when we have a 2 day lake snow event in progress. Of course, Channel 4/23 has the exclusive "Snow Vision" which is a doppler-indicated estimate of snowfall across our region, but we still need your help! Thanks for your service to the community!

I encourage you to become an official snow spotter. Again, here's the URL to do so through our local National Weather Service. They will disseminate this information to the media in a timely fashion. Your help is greatly appreciated!

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/spotter_form.htm

Here's a GUIDELINE ON HOW TO MEASURE SNOW ACCURATELY:
(Courtesy of the NWS)

Most people would think that measuring snow is an easy exercise, just stick a ruler in the snow and read the measurement. However, things like snow drifts and surface characteristics (grass, soil, pavement, metal) can greatly affect snow measurements. This guide will present some standard guidelines for measuring snow:
Do not measure snow from rooftops or paved areas. A grassy surface is a good surface to measure snow. Some observers even place a cut side of a cardboard box on the ground before the snow begins. However, if you measure snow in a grassy area, clear away the snow from a small area so you can determine where the snow ends and the grass begins. You may get an inaccurate reading if you push your measuring stick to far into the grass.
Pick a location that is least affected by snow drifts. Areas against a building or fence as well as windward and leeward sides of hills and crests are poor choices. Good locations include an open, level field.
Pick a location that is least affected by excessive sunshine or shade. South-facing slopes tend to have less snow while shady locations retain snow much longer.
Average several snow measurements. The more measurements you take, the better your estimate will be.
Adjust the amount based on coverage. At least 50% of the ground must be covered to have a snow depth. Average in a zero snow depth for each bare area. i.e. (25% bare soil * zero inches) + (75% snowcover * 4 inches) = 3 inch snow depth.
Don't mistake an ice layer or crusted snow as the "ground". Be sure to push your measuring stick firmly into the snow until you are sure you have reached the top of the grass or ground.

Weekend Winter Weather Setup...Part 2 WINTER STORM WARNING POSTED

Late this afternoon the lake snow watch issued from the southtowns down through the southern tier was upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning Monday-Tuesday. Also, a WIND ADVISORY is in effect for the entire region from 6am to 1pm tomorrow. Great call by NWS, seeing a tightly wound up Low with cold winds on the backside lined up west shifting nw tomorrow. The warning is twofold: a. heavy lake snow, b. strong winds with gusts up to 50mph. This will make for difficult travel with blowing snow creating whiteouts. all of us will be dealing snow showers and wind tomorrow, but certainly much more significant down south. It appears the band will gradually sink from the southtowns into ski country and the southern tier. If you've forgotten your winter weather driving skills, you'd better brush up fast! This event, however, is spectacular news for the ski resorts...1-2 feet of snow expected in these parts. Here comes winter! Of course, safety is our biggest concern. Proceed with caution....