And Now, Back to the Outlook....
Slick Rds will still be around Tuesday AM from a relatively minor brush with snow, with average accumulations of 1-3" but locally higher amounts of 3-4" on some of the hills. As we move into the midweek, we'll have a tranquil Wednesday, and Thursday may end up being the "mildest" day for awhile, ahead of a true arctic cold front. A downslope breeze Thursday could bring the temp to 40 near Buffalo, but a light mix will arrive toward evening and turn to snow Thursday overnight. On Friday, the arctic air will be deepening, with Snow Shwrs. Significant Lake Snow will be a possibility during the afternoon and into the overnight hours. There are preliminary signs this event could begin on a more SWly flow and continue into early Saturday--but it's far too early to begin talking about amounts or whether this snow is going to focus near the metro area for this period. Tonight's operational GFS shows boundary layer winds veering to a more Wly and eventually WNWly flow during Saturday afternoon, which would steer lake snows down into the hilly terrain. Once winds veer past 270 degrees in origin, lake snow tends to become a multiple band, weaker event, which will certainly be the case by Sunday. Snow making conditions for the ski resorts will become excellent even when this veering occurs. If the Wly fetch lasts long enough, then Catt Co could get quite a bit of help from nature, with less necessity for the expensive snow guns. The GFS also shows a short wave backing the winds to SWly again on Monday, so this will be an interesting period. Temps will be averaging below normal much of the time after Thursday, but in--pardon the pun--varying degrees. The GFS ensemble shows the longwave trough retrograding back to the interior of the NW, which would allow the coldest air to moderate some before reaching us. But for Saturday night and through Sunday, the axis of this trough will allow this cold stuff to focus on the Lakes. Sunday's high may not get above 15. While the AFC Title game will be plenty cold in New England, the Giants-Green Bay game will probably be played in the single numbers on Sunday.
posted by Don Paul at
11:53 PM
100 Comments:
So, as always, lake effect snow is hard to predict until it is happening. As of now, you say that it looks as though LES could set up in the N. towns Friday night... stay there until Saturday morning, then shift south. It should remain in ski country for a good part of Saturday and Sunday, but on Sunday, the band could break apart and be in a somewhat weaker form. Then you say there is a chance that the band could shift back North to the N. towns on Monday! This sounds like a pro-longed LES event that will keep you and everyone else pretty busy! Pro-longed LES events tend to do quite a number on WNY as far as snow goes!
Not to forget, or leave out people who live in the S. towns, and ski country (where they need the snow)... but it sounds as though you are going to have to especially keep an eye on the North Towns... Buffalo, Amherst, and Clarence (the most densely populated areas). If this band were to set up in the N. Towns, shift south, and then come back up north, that could cause trouble for the big populated towns of Amherst and Clarence as you well know. This LES event very well could end up being a "south of Buffalo" event, however make sure to give a forecast for Buffalo northward... i.e., N. Erie, as you usually do. If this band were to affect the N. Towns, where the majority of your viewing audience is, that could as you well know cause some problems, and I’m sure it would make a lot of people happy, because we don’t usually get decent LES events up here. Its about time for the N. Towns to get a good LES event... its rare to get one of those up here in the Amherst Clarence area... so keep us updated, as I’m sure you will.
THANKS!
I just got off the NWS website for E.Amherst, and they seem to be making quite a big deal with this expected LES event. I really didnt know the North towns were supposed to get snow out of this one. Well, here is the NWS forecast for E. Amherst below which uses the "heavy snow" icon, not used often by them. This forecast was updated at 1:15am 1/15/08
Thursday Night: Periods of snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: Heavy snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday Night: Snow likely. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%
Looks like a big wintery pattern.Im in Hamburg right now we have allready between 3-6 inches and its still snowing heavily.-Adam from Hamburg
Just to mention htis morning. From the Boston Hills there is atleast 8 inches of snow with about 14 on the ground. I have no school because hamburg is closed
I really appreciate the spot-on forecast presented yesterday evening regarding this (Tuesday)morning's LES event in S Erie. Keep up the great work, Channel 4!
Hamburg has closed to 6 inches. And i also expect the band to move back though with another few inches out of that and frontier is opend. I dont know why becaause traffic around here is horendiz.-Adam from Hamburg.
It appears as though the southern suburbs will still get several more inches before the band starts to shift southward by later Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Steering winds should drop the lake snow further south into the southern tier during the afternoon.
Our crew down at Hamuburg reported thunder snow at 6 AM...definitely an indication of intensity.
NWS spotter reports already coming in with; 10" Boston, 4" W. Falls and 3.5" at Elma.
I'm definitely concerned about the end of the week...looks like there is the potential for strong winds with that Arctic surge.
Wow... were we expecting this much and this bad...
I just have to ask, when was the last time a met was right about the weather forcast? I just re watched Dons weather at 10pm and his words were, NOT a heavy duty shoveling,accumulations will not be huge and spotty 2-4 inches. I live in North Collins, and I had at least 6 inches when i got up this morning, my truck was definatly piled on with snow. Im not saying it only ch 4 either,but when do they get it right? Todays snow was suppose to be no big deal and yet it turned into a moderate snow event but yet when they say we are going to see alot we never get it. I know lake effect is hard to predict but this is crazy how off tehy are all the time.
No, Yesterday’s computer guidance really didn’t point to such an intense event. There were some elements lacking, but we have been under the influence of a trough the proximity of that weather system has certainly bolstered the accumulations for the southtowns.
Anonymous,...to Don's defense... when it comes to lake effect, residency time of the band is everything. You can have a moderate event, but as long as the band keeps moving, total accumulation will be manageable. That was not the case this morning, the band has been fixed over Hamburg-Boston for several hours and that’s why the snow has really piled up. It should be noted that the band is still expected to shift southward more toward the So. Tier this afternoon.
And it seems that front that decided to just "park" itself over Hamburg and Boston allowed some other areas to escape a large snowfall and pretty much fall within the parameters that the News 4 Mets talked about yesterday. I know in the eastern suburbs where I live and travel for work was very manageable and the roads were open. Pretty smooth sailing.
Bob
This post has been removed by the author.
Mid-morning update...lake snow across So. Erie Co. becoming disorganized. Snow band that I discussed on Wake-Up now shifting So'ward and will probably sweep thru the metro during the midday producing a quick accumulation. More organized lake snow should then set up toward the So. Tier for the afternoon.
It wasnt just ch 4 it was all the stations that were wrong.
A few quick responses: First, to Chris-I never mentioned the northtowns in particular, so pls don't write/put words in my mouth. I said near the metro area. That could be Amherst or it could be a little town you forgot to mention, the City of Buffalo, or it could be the Buffalo Stowns. No wishcasting, okay? We don't have the answers yet, let alone having someone else essentially post that we do.
Adam: I posted once before and am now repeating: The click-on-map forecast from the NWS website is inferior to their zone forecast. The map grids have some human input, but are largely computer generated. The text zone forecast is the product made entirely by humans.
And to the 2nd anonymous: When was the last time we got it right? Almost every day, more than 80% of the time. Was this a perfect forecast? No, some of the Buffalo Stowns and the more distant Stowns (especially Boston) got more than we bargained for but, on the other hand, we talked about some limited accumulations for Tuesday back on Thursday of last week.
Not as good as we'd like, but the nonsense about never getting it right is just that--nonsense.
Don , we understand your team is not 100% perfect ( if you were we wouldnt need you) , and posters need to understand Don and his team have posted MANY times , LES is its own monster and very hard to fully predict.
I guess you could say Buffalo has alot of weather junkies and get (to) excited over major to extreme with changes. I for one will apoligize.
Having been in Buffalo for many years , and listening to WIVB and Don , I know that a big storm is coming when I here Don use the word ( Whopper).
Anyways thank you Wivb , this blog is fun , just dont lose your true self in here..
Hopefully we will get enough cold and snow to make the Skiers happier..
PS: 1210pm in Hamburg 30 degrees , very light snow , we got atleast 6 inches right outside village towards boston area.
Thank you, hamburgsnowman.
About two inches of wet snow in Depew this morning, there looks to be about that much in the Central Park area of Buffalo.
Early Afternoon Update:
The well organized lake snow has broken up, but snow shwrs will continue this afternoon, and may become a little better organized mid/late afternoon over the hills below the Buffalo Stowns.
Still many uncertainties about lake effect potential late in the week. Friday's WSW flow may back to more SWly by evening, but precise wind directions at this point are still out of reach. The airmass does not look that moist initially, and that can limit lake effect output. On Saturday, all of us will get some synoptic snow from an area of low pressure very close by and winds will eventually veer to a WNWly flow. The proximity of this low may induce wind shear, which would disrupt lake effect bands. By Saturday night and especially Sunday, we'll be a strong WNW flow. Sunday looks to be a bitter cold day, when you factor in the brisk winds and temperatures topping off near 15.
So, yes, there is still the chance for significant lake effect snow by Friday evening, but its location and duration remain quite uncertain.
Don,
What would be the exact wind degree that would bring LE snow to Elba (just north of Batavia). Would it be 250 or a little less than that? My snowmobile is itching to go!! Thanks.
Don,
I live in Centerville, right on the edge of Cattaraugus and Wyoming Counties, there is a snow advisory, how much snow would I be expecting.....?
Patti
It's not fair. Orchard Park had the same weather as Hamburg for the WHOLE day and we've got accumulations of at least 6-8 inches! This morning the snow was coming down more than an inch per hour and none of the plows were able to keep up. However, we could not close school today because the middle schoolers had ELA exams today, and we can't/refuse to close if there are exams.
We haven't gotten one snow day this winter because the weather either comes after school starts and ends before it ends, occurs during the weekend or on holidays or happens when we can't close because of exams. WE ARE NEVER GOING TO GET A SNOW DAY!!
By the way, you guys did a great job covering this storm. :)
YAAAAAAAAY!!! Orchard Park has about a foot of snow!!! This is the best amount we've seen all season!!!!
I live in hamburg and i got around 7 inches more or less.Yaaaayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.I hope this next lake snow event will happen all across wny.As long as Hamburg gets a decent amount of snow im happy.-Adam from Hamburg
Don:
A little off topic... Are there plans for WIVB to broadcast their newscasts in HD in the near future? I think your weather graphics would look even nicer in HD!
Thanks
Is this "Friday weather event" starting to look less impressive? Im not really hearing all too much on it anymore. I hope its still coming though! What are the chances for LES in the North Towns? I heard that it may be windy Friday... I can tell you now if it is, it will rip the LES band(s) appart... just like last time!
The NWS still hints at the POSSIBILITY of a LES event this weekend, but they also importantly say on their discussion page...
"IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT IT IS BEYOND THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SCIENCE TO OFFER MUCH PREDICTIVE INSIGHT INTO EXACT BAND PLACEMENT
OR INTENSITY AT THIS TIME RANGE."
-Matt
This artic blast looks really serious. However it appears less common in our winters. My dad said in the 70's it was common for extreme cold. I read somewhere there was a temp. drop and our winters got rough. It looks like as all meteorologists have said, not a very rough winter this year. O well, I just can't wait for this blast. Skiing conditions have also greatly improved these past couple days.
Don,
Along the lines of "cesna's" HDTV question, are there any plans to compete with NBC and WGRZ's "Weather Plus?" Whether weather line calls, the seemingly extraordinary traffic on this site, and the popularity of your newscasts on snowy days, I think I would not be alone in enjoying 24 hour Weather Watch 4!!!
-Matt
To put the overall coming pattern change in context, I repeat what I posted the other day. Some of the bigger 'identifiers' are missing for a longterm shift to much colder temperatures. The PNA will be neutral to slightly negative over the next 14 days (warmer phase), the Arctic Oscillation/AO will be mostly positive within a few days (warmer phase) and the NAO will be mainly neutral, with a weak tendency to negative in about 14 days.
With these ensemble indications, the Arctic blasts will tend to be sporadic and shorter, rather than the lengthier cold spells we've had in other winters. At least the slightly negative trend for the NAO in a couple of weeks is the first sign of a negative NAO in awhile.
Other questions answered:
jcaleb17: Since I don't have a compass and a protractor handy (does anyone anymore??), I'd say 250 degrees would do it.
cesna: We will be going HD, but I don't have a schedule on that. Our recent graphics update included the HD option.
tom: no real change in our fuzzy outlook for Friday-Saturday, except I think some directional wind shear on Saturday may diminish the organization the lake effect band to some extent.
Matt: Thanks very much for posting the NWS caveat about uncertainty at this range--something I've been trying to get across to my fellow snow junkies....
marinecore: The winters of 76-77 and 77-78 were especially brutal, and not typical of past winters. During 76-77, the midwest and the interior of the NE were so cold that natural gas had to be rationed for homes and schools, with some factories shutting down.
There were also a few extreme winters in the 30s, and 1960 was a tough one throughout the NE.
MC3008: Winters have warmed significantly in northern cities like Buffalo since the 1970s. Take for instance in just the short term...last January, temps in Buffalo averaged 4.4 degrees above normal. This January, we've already clocked 3 record highs in the 60s. This may help partially explain why many folks are raising eyebrows about our push to a more polar weather pattern this weekend.
Matt,
Forgot to answer your 2nd question. I don't think we can do that without CBS, since WeatherPlus was set up by NBC for its affiliates.
From what I've read in the industry trade magazines, WeatherPlus has simply not been a player in drawing an audience so far, and hasn't even dinged the armor of the Weather Channel nationally--so I doubt CBS will participate, unless they end up buying the Weather Channel.
Don---
What do you mean when you say LES could be close to Buffalo Fri night/ Sat.? Do you mean the band could just be south of Buffalo... or do you mean it could be in the N. towns just above Buffalo?? What in your mind, with the latest information do you see happening... I know its still early, but there has to be some signs of the band being just south of the city, or just north of the city... or im sure it could be right in the city too. AND with your current knowledge, how long do you think the band could stay in one place, before going on the move?
sup Mary beth
do u think they could be some dangerous wind chills on saturday night because accuweather is forecasting temps to be at 9F and winds sustained of 25Mph which put as in -15-- -20 range........
btw how is the LES looking for buffalo this weekend
One more question i just downloaded BUFKIT and i dont know how to use it ....can u tell me how?
Best wishes
Ayuud
To my untrained eyes, the set-up on the latest GFS model run looks very impressive for a lake effect hit in northern Erie County from Friday night through Saturday morning. Of course, being in the bullseye this far out isn't always a good thing if you're rooting for snow...Looking forward to watching the pros key in on this during the week.
YAY!!!
Ayuud:
Here's a link to a basic BUFKIT tutorial that you might find helpful:
http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=153184
gregn arent u a member in easteruswx.com cuz i saw u one time on that site
Adam,
Your questions are impossible to answer this far out.
Ayuud, there's nothing simple about using BUFKIT, so don't feel "like a dummy" if and when you read that tutorial. BUFKIT is not really for enthusiasts & hobbyists; it's a tool used by degreed meteorologists, and requires quite a bit of training in learning to use its many applications and learning how to interpret what you see.
You have nothing to lose by trying, but please don't start posting what you're "seeing in BUFKIT" at your level. I have the feeling that someday you'll be doing this for real, and doing it well. If it makes you feel any better, I still have quite a bit to learn about BUFKIT myself!
gregn:
Actually, the GFS when examined closely doesn't inspire confidence in a "sure thing" lake effect storm for nrn Erie. For one thing, moisture availability is limited Friday afternoon and evening. And, as I posted twice, the proximity of the low pressure center can disrupt lake effect convergence due to wind shear. If that low were to pass a little more to the north, the SW winds Friday night and Saturday morning would be better aligned, and we'd have a better handle on lake effect intensity. As progged right now, Saturday's snow could end up being more synoptic (general) and less of a lake effect event. If you picture the tight cyclonic curvature of the boundary layer winds when a low is close, maybe you can also envision how much change in wind direction with height and distance can occur.
So, my view currently is that this particular Tuesday evening is simply too soon to be talking about northtowns, Buffalo, or southtowns. First we have to see if we can get the right wind alignment through the boundary layer for the arctic air to do its thing efficiently.
Don, thanks for the great explanation. It's fascinating how many factors need to line up to get the lake effect machine really cranking.
Ayuud,
Yes, I'm a member over at the easternuswx forum. Lots of great discussions there from pro mets throughout the country. Western NY doesn't have much representation on the forum (at least from pros), so it's nice to see this blog active with input from our top local mets.
Wazzup Ayuud: Here's the BufKit documents URL: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/buf/bufkit/bufkitdocs.html You can cut and paste it onto your browser. I must admit you'd be much better off if you had solid meteorological training in order to fully understand the model. I give you a lot of credit for your weather enthusiasm!
Regarding the LES question: Don has the update on the 11pm news tonight. Model runs today not as impressive as in previous days, but still may see a general snow for all. With colder air following in, lake snow highly probable but need specific wind direction. Just a 10 degree difference in direction makes a world of a difference on who gets what and how much.
On the wind chill matter, at 9F with a 25mph, wind chill is about -12. A Wind Chill ADVISORY is issued when the wind chill is at or below -15 for at least 3 hours. More importantly (and potentially life threatening, a Wind Chill WARNING is issued when the wind chill is at or below -25 for a minimum of 3 hours. Chance we may meet criteria for advisory over the weekend, but even if not, it'll be bone-chilling cold enough. Be sure to dress appropriately in layers, along with hat and gloves...and don't leave Toto outside!!
So... more or less, there probaly wont be a big LES outbreak... there may not be that much LES at all! And this "general snowfall" on sat probaly wont end up being any more than 1-2" maybe up to 3". So not looking like we're going to see much snow... Wow! what a suprise lol... its been like this all winter! We will get cold temps, but thats not the "big story" people are looking for, its the snow we want! As each day goes by, the snow chance seems to go down... and Im sure the snow we all will be getting on sat wont be anything to get excited over! Oh well.... I guess we wont really know til the time comes.
Friday is 2 nights away...With all the technology there is in today's world. They can go to the farthest planet in our solar system, yet they can't predict the weather 2 days away. Not bashing channel 4 or any meteorologist at all, but technology in today's world is amazing, they can explore all over space millions of miles away, use telescopes to scan billions of miles away, yet cant predict a lake effect snow event or any event in that manner thats 2 days away! That just bogels my mind, we have come far, but we have alot of advancing to do. One more question, there's been a countless number of LES events in the last 100 years, isn't there a description of each one and the circumstances in terms of wind direction, temperature, lake temp, etc... for each one that you can compare the circumstances of this one to, and along with model guidance make a prediction on whats going to happen. Even the NWS says its "beyond our comprehension to know where the LES is and how strong its going to be". Why be meteorlogist if your going to wait until the day it happens to say whats going to happen! Thats not predicting, I can look up to the sky for that! Im not bashing anyone! Im just saying techonology in the meteorlogically world is pretty pathetic.
Wow! Someone's a little over the top today, anonymous....
I wouldn't even know how to begin responding to that silliness, so I'll just let it go to fall on its own merits.
Don,
Sounds like he is a little upset because of the forcast uncertainity. We need to be a little more realistic and patient.
A little over the top? How so? I wasn't bashing anyone just stating there is much advancement to be made in Meteorological Techonology. Explain to me how that's silly? Do you not agree? Its very clear that my statements are correct with no response from you guys. Tomorrow will come, and the forecast for Friday will still be uncertain. How in the world is that even possible! If it is, which it probably will be, then my statements are correct. Why wait until the day of the storm to predict it, thats not called predicting or even forecasting. I dont want to look up to know whats going to happening, that seems to be the trend now adays though. Just explain a little bit about technology in the Meteorlogically world, thats all I ask.
I have to agree with anonym, don and you guys do a great job but like someone said before when was a storm predicted and it was right. The November storm of 2000, that was not predicted right until it came, the october storm again not predicted. the other day how the southtowns got hammered, again not predicted. I think that is a vaild question to ask. How does this happen, what changes that these storms came upon us but with little warning.
Anonymous--do you mean because I don't take the time to an incredibly inaccurate premise (we don't predict storms in advance) when I'm also trying to do my job, that proves you're correct?
I take time out of my job to answer reasonable questions and to give my impressions as time allows. I'm not about to waste valuable time responding to nonsense. By the way, southtowner, the NWS issued a Winter Storm Warning the night before the November 2000 storm. And if you call yesterday's snow in the southtowns--not well called by me or anyone else, I'll admit--"getting hammered" I don't know if you've lived in the southtowns very long.
Before anyone presents our space exploration technology as flawless in order to berate weather forecasting technology (apples and oranges, in my opinion), I feel it's necessary to note the following:
Our first effort to launch a rocket, Project Vanguard, exploded on the launchpad in 1957. Three astronauts burned to death on the launchpad in the Apollo program in 1967. We have had two catastrophic Space Shuttle explosions. Three Mars landers failed in the late 1990s. Rocket Science isn't perfect, either.
Sending a spacecraft to another planet is an entirely different animal than predicting whether or not it's going to snow in two days. Many weather events have been reliably predicted well in advance - Hurricane Katrina is an obvious example. The Christmas snowstorm in 2001, though much more snow was received than anticipated, was predicted 3-4 days in advance as I recall. I remember, because I was out of town at the time, and had to adjust my travel plans. Don has expounded ad nauseum on several threads of this blog about events within the past month or two when forecasting was very reliable well in advance of the event. He has also expounded ad nauseum about UNCERTAINTY, which is as much a reality in meteorology as it is in space travel, the stock market, basketweaving, etc.
I could reword anonymous' original statement to say just about anything - "We can use Doppler radar to pick up rotation in a thunderstom cell, but we can't synchronize the traffic lights on Main Street in Williamsville. I'm not bashing the DOT, but our radar technology is amazing."
As usual, this is all just my opinion...with a few facts thrown in. :)
By the way, anonymous can go to "http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/indexlk.html" to get answers to his questions on lake effect events going back to the 1998-99 season.
Let's remmeber we are dealing with "Mother Nature" here, which implies the female gender, which as we all know, she is then entitled to change her mind at the last minute, which makes predicting even harder. :-)
Don Paul
"At least the slightly negative trend for the NAO in a couple of weeks is the first sign of a negative NAO in awhile."
Are There still signs of a negative NAO towards the end of Janurary?
What are the chances of the Village of Lewiston getting significant snow on Friday afternoon and evening? Are we too far north for the predicted bands to sock us in? Or is there a chance of bands forming off Lakes Huron and Ontario? My daughter's birthday party is Friday evening and we're concerned about our guests travelling to and from the party.
Anonymus,
There are actually fewer variables and uncertainties involved with sending a probe to mars, then there are with weather forecasting. Everything that occurs in the atmosphere around the entire planet influences the weather in any given location to some degree. It is a river of air that is constantly flowing and connected. Every moment is different. If you sit on the bank of a stream and really observe the surface you will notice all kinds of swirls and eddies and how they interact and Change within a given location. It is never the same from moment to moment. Amazingly that is what is happening only on the surface. Below the surface the flow is completely different due to boulders, and frictional forces along the bottom. Now,imagine these same interactions magnified on an incredible scale and you start to get a sense of what the atmosphere does. Keep in mind that this analogy is still a simplification but may help you understand some of the dynamics. Spending a day on a trout stream can really help one to understand how complex and fickle nature is!
Thank you, Nick, for the lovely analogy. I might add we're on a spinning globe heated by a thermonuclear furnace 93 million miles distant, and the sea surface with all its eddies and pools of differing temperatures, is in constant interaction with the atmosphere and its eddies. As you said, always in motion, with little repetition in the smaller interactions.
As for Lewiston, there shouldn't be anything drastic Friday afternoon or early evening. Some lake snow may begin to organize in the afternoon closer to the metro area, but moisture will be limited and it's doubtful this band will produce truly heavy snowfall. During the evening, a SW flow may begin to back to a more SSWly flow, but that would likely be later at night. Any lake snow will be disrupted by Saturday morning, with the aforementioned low pressure system nearby, bringing us snow showers. After the low moves east, winds will veer to the WNW, reorganizing lake snow and shifting most of it well south.
Thanks Don! I appreciate your response.
So overall, this looks like a very minor weather event for Fri into sat?
That's not what I said. Limited lake snow is not "very minor." But unless we get a more prolonged SWly flow than is currently indicated, there are no signs of it being a "whopper."
Well said Nick and Marshall Stack.
Yes to be honest I've lived in the southtowns/ski country all my life, I'm only 14 years old but yesterday was not a major storm. 10 inches is a good amount but nobody got buried. 10 inch amounts in January really isn't huge. It's just, this winter has been so easy to get off with we aren't used to the daily lake effect snow
sup guys i have lot of tests going on so i hardly have anytime to sit on the pc but my Preliminary thoughts would be that by sometime next Wed., areas ESE of L. Ontario could end up with 36+", and ski areas S. of BUF in the 24-36" range.......Of course, things can change, still, at these lead times!
btw don i learned how to use the BUFKIT and it is a great tool for lake effect forecasting
Ayuud said: "sup guys i have lot of tests going on so i hardly have anytime to sit on the pc but my Preliminary thoughts would be that by sometime next Wed., areas ESE of L. Ontario could end up with 36+", and ski areas S. of BUF in the 24-36" range.......Of course, things can change, still, at these lead times!
btw don i learned how to use the BUFKIT and it is a great tool for lake effect forecasting"
Be careful , you'll scare people , we got enough , whats this , how much of that here..
ohhh no you created a monster....
Don't worry...Ayuud only THINKS he knows how to use BUFKIT.
Ayuud, I'll say it again. Go ahead and play with it, but don't delude yourself. No one with a degree in meteorology learns it in a day, let alone someone at your level. You don't take advice very well, sometimes, Ayuud. It's designed for meteorology grads, and requires a thorough education and level of experience.
By the way, your numbers are silly.
don u are funny and btw what is snow growth
The area of snow growth in a cross section of the atmosphere is an area/altitude where the temperature and humidity are favorable for the growth of dendritic snow crystals (the familiar flakes). The thicker and more moist a dendritic growth region is, the better the snow output for that time period displayed is likely to be, independent of other factors (such as warm advection, wind shear, etc.)
How is Everyone Doing Tonight ill make my premirly thoughts on the next LES event
The buffalo Area will get some Limited LES during late Friday to at least Saturday when a Low Pressure Moving Toward Our Area Disrupts The Les and brings too much wind shear And gives everyone Sypnotic Snow....Later Saturday Around The Evening Cold Air Rushes in behind the snow With A WNW winds(favors south of buff s'towns)Which will kick the lake effect snow And the Lake Induced Cape rises Dramaticly around 1124(SOME Thunder maybe possible)And the Instability goes to extreme. 850 mb temps drop to -16 Celsius. The difference between 700 mb temperatures and lake increases to over 30 degrees as well, which is a good sign that something very well organized should be going. Mean wind direction at this time is between 295 and 300, but I don't want to get specific this far out with that. Let's generalize with a NW wind.
By Sunday morning, instability is still there, and we're likely dealing with a well-organized band:
And this Event will Be a prolonged Event starting late saturday continuing till Monday as the wind back more to WSW which could bring LES close TO Buffalo S'towns ....
It is too Early to Forecast Any specific snow Accumalation But It Appears Significant snow Accumalation will be possible Mainly Across South of Buffalo
see Don i can be good at weather forecasting but for some reason inside of me there is some weenie who wants a lot of snow and gets excited about it..
tell me what u think about my thoughts for this Next LES from the 2nd Ayuud Not the other weenie one inside of me...
audd plese leave the forcasting to don and professionals
I hope kissing bridge gets a good amount. They have only 3 hills open. Holiday Valley has 37. I hope the WNW flow spares a good amount for So. Erie county. Maybe with the strong WNW flow we can get a Lake Huron connection. I've noticed that in that case the orographic lift from the boston hills can create snow form boston south and eastward, that would include kb. I really hope the hills of So. Erie get snow, KB needs it horribly, more so than Ellicotville.
Is this a possibilty?
or is it to early to tell yet?
Well, Ayuud--your first paragraph comes straight out of my posted playbook, so I can't quarrel with myself.
As for the extreme instability, that's a correct given. However, if boundary layer winds come around to 295 or 300, a well organized band here is unlikely. That wind direction would result in multiple bands, rather than a single, well-organized band--shorter fetch over Lk Erie. Ski Country would benefit more from a wind from 270-275.
Still, over late Saturday and Sunday, even with less organized bands, some decent accumulations should start to develop on the slopes, and snow-making conditions will be excellent.
The initial band on the SW flow for the metro area/nearby suburbs looks less impressive due to limited moisture in the flow, but will still produce some modest accumulations.
Ayuud, feel free to play around on this blog. But issuing your forecast in some formal format looks a little over the top. Of course, when I was your age I had delusions about my level of knowledge as well, so I can empathize with your to some extent!
thanks Don for ur comments and from now n i wont rush to weather Events like i use to do from now on a New Ayuud is born
And Now time to study my tests see'ya guys tommorow
Weird to look at Noaa site and see 2 storms coming towards us and alot of warnings , but neither will really hit us , unless there is still that unknown factor..
radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
Hello bloggers and CH 4 weather team.
Just a react to Anonymous and his frustration that forecasters can't get it right despite all the technology.
Living in the snowbelt of South-Central Ontario, 90-kilometres north of Toronto, I have seen countless times how difficult it is to pinpoint LES--where it is going to fall and how much.
Remember--unlike a massive winter storm that can cover a wide swath of territory, LES events can be so very localized.
I can recall snowsquall warnings(our name for LES)for Barrie area of between 6 and 12 inches of snow. In one end of town, eight inches does fall. In the other end of town, just a dusting. So is the forecaster right or wrong? Is the glass jar half full or half empty?
Mother Nature can just be as tricky in summer despite all the technology.
I can recall a June day several years ago where a typical afternoon thunderstorm erupted into an hour long deluge that soaked us with five inches of rain! Again, no weather warning issued when the storm hit because at the time, on radar, it didn't look anything special. Suddenly, for whatever reason, the cell exploded and just hung over one end of town. The other half of the city got a few spits and folks there wondered what all the fuss was about.
To compare weather forecasting with the space program is really out of this world(pardon the pun).
Nothing in life is a sure thing..except death and taxes---and I still hope one day both of those forecasts will miss there mark!
Have a good night.
Models suggest this is a bust for Buff and north.
<3" north of Clinton street and south of rt 98. Sorry for all the hype here but it just doesn't look promising.
Sometimes I can not tell the difference between Ayuud and Don.
I think Ayuud has been just as accurate as Don and MB.. But I have no real data..
I wonder if it will snow in Hamburg.
It's getting hard to tell one anonymous from another around here.
Clinton Street? Route 98? Those are geographical markers no one's ever used before-congrats on the originality!
It's not mandatory, but it would be nice if everyone chose a boardname around here. At least we'd have some idea of who is whom....
That National Mosaic radar web sight that hamburgsnowman refered to is awesome! Thanks for sharing.
Looks like the N. towns have lost all hope for any good LES. It really dosnt look as though this "weather event" was... or is big enough to get happy over. Another dud for the N. towns!
Actually with all do respects to anonymous wouldn't the 280-300 winds take the band west of rte. 98? not south because south is Salamanca and the I-86 corridor. Rte 98 runs from Batavia, through Arcade, then curves at Farmersville Station and heads to Great valley making it a north-south route. To be honest its not that big of a deal though.
how about north of transit rd..HAHAHHAHAHAH
good one anonymous, you got me stumped