High Wind Threat Increasing
The Tuesday night/Wed AM storm system is showing increasing signs of a High Wind threat (a severe weather term) toward Wednesday morning and into Wednesday. This morning's NAM model run (which does a decent job on boundary layer winds) suggests 30-40 mph sustained winds develop in the predawn hours of Wednesday on into much of Wednesday, before weakening mid/late afternoon. Winds of that magnitude would likely be accompanied by peak gusts of 60+, which would be sufficient for property damage. We talked abut this strong wind potential back on Thursday & Friday nights, but now it appears we'll be past the informal threshold of "strong" into genuinely High Winds. There will be some limited post-frontal snow accumulation after midnight, and lake effect will focus near the metro area/possibly Ntowns on Wednesday with a boundary layer vector 0f 240-250. However, these winds may have a tendency to shear apart any organized band for most of Wednesday, so accumulations currently don't look impressive.
posted by Don Paul at
2:13 PM
106 Comments:
Thanks for the post, Don....you read my mind!!....I requested an update like this on the last thread...unlike snow, which the exact prediction of can be tricky, the wind predictions seem to be more of a sure thing...if you could, and it may take until tomorrow sometime to accurately call this, give a description of the Wednesday morning commute...I can always gauge it based on the word you use...."tricky"..."slick"..."rapidly deteriorating conditions"..."treacherous"...thanks Don!
Hi folks
In my neck of the woods, we're under a freezing rain warning with an expected 2 to 4 hours of ice beginning around midnight then changing to rain.
Like the CH 4 weather team is touting strong winds in WNY, Environment Canada giving Southern Ontario a heads up that wind warnings will likely have to be issued late Tuesday ahead of the sharp cold front. Expected to blow through Southwestern Ontario late Tuesday evening and our area in the wee hours of Wednesday with gusts over 90-k/55 mph. Also, not much talk about LES after the passage of the front.
Don, NWS discussion sees some similarities to the Jan 9th event. Do you see that also?
Why does it seem that every time there is a potential for any LES in the northtowns there is high winds that break apart the bands? The snow gods are against us here in Amherst! ;-) After the last two times, I won't get my hopes up for snow. My kids haven't played in the snow at all yet!
hey don I'm just wondering if you could figure out general totals for the lake effect.I live in Amherst and have been waiting for some lake effect for a while,even just a few inches would be great . Thanks
-Devin
Sounds like its gonna be a blast!!!!!!! -Adam from Hamburg
Grrr here we go again with totals, Dont get your hopes up , Though they have been understandably wrong with totals this year in MOST cases...
Busy few days ahead for Team WIVB , My question is whats the status of the weekend storm..
Thanks in advance....
Barrie......... A High Watch here across wny and btw did eviromental canada issuie any statement for this wind event i only see freezing rain advisory
Ayuud
What will that do to the ice on Lake Erie, could it push the ice over the ice boom and down the river?
communicating-uncertainty
http://www.buffaloweatherblog.com/2007/12/communicating-uncertainty-to-public.html
RE: Blizzard of 77
Don, in an article I recently read about the Blizard, it noted that the Polar vortex in 1976-77 was so far south that year that areas as far south as Miami, parts of Mexico and the Bahamas were invaded by artic air. What is the polar vortex and waht would keep it so far to the south for such a long period of time, and what are the odd of such an event ever happening again?
This may be a little off topic, so there's no rush in answering it, but, I noticed that some areas in PA have freezing rain advisories and I was wondering how much that means they're expecting.
-Thanks :)
oldtimer; the polar vortex is a semi permanent feature which may stay relatively stationary for just a few days or a lengthier period. It is usually a large, strong area of low pressure which extends up into the atmosphere, and its counterclockwise circulation can draw polar airmasses into parts of the lower 48, depending on the location of the vortex. The winters of 76-77 and 77-78 saw lengthy periods in which this vortex provided the coldest winters in years for the Ohio Valley and the NE, with natural gas being rationed at time.
Weathergirl; there will be just enough icing in parts of nrn PA (and parts of the interior of the srn tier) to produce slick roads--not a major accumulation.
Any other matters relating to the Blizzard of '77 will be addressed on that new thread.
As for totals with Wednesday's system, the amount of wind shear makes truly heavy amounts unlikely. No numbers yet, devin.
In response to Ayuud
Just a special weather statement from Environment Canada with two highlights. The freezing rain event late this evening and overnight, then the winds roaring in with the front very late Tuesday or early Wednesday.
And they have dropped any suggestion of snowsqualls. As Don has mentioned in his posting, wind shear may negate any impressive amounts of snow.
For those interested, the same cold front has sparked blizzard conditions from Winnipeg to Regina in western Canada. Windchills in Winnipeg will be between minus 40 and near minus 50 the next two days---bitter cold even for those good folks.
Don....I just watched a video of your 6 pm weathercast...you used the term "brutal" to describe the Wednesday morning commute...does this still apply?....any clues yet to the exact timing?...between 2 and 4 am?...4-6 am?...anything like that yet?...when will you really be able to "pinpoint" the forecast?...thanks a bunch
storm watcher; as of the latest runs this afternoon, it looks like conditions will worsen consdirably after 4am.
We'll see what the late evening runs show....
Is Buffalo the windiest "major" city in the nation? Where do were rank?
Does it look like there is the potential for widespread power outages or is it more likely there will be isolated pockets because some areas get hit harder than others?
So we are looking at a possible high wind warning later today ( for Wednesday) , gusts up to 60 mph , couple inches of snow , POSSIBLE lake effect (no totals) ,power outages , schools closed ( maybe) then a day or 2 off then another storm for the weekend??
Sound like a busy few days..
Ohh why does it look like the storm already passed us on this loop as of 820 am
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
PS Mike your to quiet...
Hey guys.....what about wind chill values for tomorrow, what with the dropping temperatures and high winds?...any estimates on those yet?...thanks
To answer a few questions: Buffalo is fairly high on the list of windiest major cities (windier than Chicago, i.e.) but it's not the windiest--as I recall.
Wind chill numbers will drop into the single numbers tomorrow, and possibly approach zero.
No one can predict how widespread power outages will be.
And predicting lake effect accumulations when speed shear is occurring is extremely difficult, since we don't have a magic "threshold" speed at which point lake effect convergence cease. Directional shear (winds shifting in direction with altitude) is another matter--too much directional shear, and lake effect potential dissipates.
High Wind Watch has just been changed to a High Wind WARNING, going into effect at 2am (though I think conditions will worsen more noticeably after 4am).
In addition, WNY will be at a Slight Risk for Severe Thunderstorms in advance of the cold front--damaging straightline winds the primary threat--in the SPC Outlook. Similar (though weather events are never totally identical) to Jan 9th event--not QUITE as much prefrontal warming this time, but enough.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Severe_weather_terminology_%28United_States%29
neat site...
Don (and team Wivb) I suspect your going to have a busy few days , It got real quiet on this blog , what is everyone getting the extra rest for the storms this week..
I guess this storm will probably slow down if not get rid of all the ice on the lakes , any satelite pictures of the lakes yet( showing ice formation)
Noaas site says inch or 2 of snow , no mention of lake effect yet.
No satellite pics of the ice on cloudy days. Slush ice covers the SW quarter of the lake, with building slush ice around the shores elsewhere, and additional ice abutting Long Point. This storm will certainly move the ice around, but not get rid of it all. There will be the potential for lakeshore flooding with ice coming up on shore in the usual trouble spots in the predawn and AM hours tomorrow, although the NWS hasn't yet issued a warning.
Sounds Like I maybe able to sleep in tomorrow.
Why is eveyone making a big deal about a wind event (josh-b, the latest)?
Yes, I understand we may have to deal with some downed tree limbs and scattered power outages, but really...why on earth do you think you will be able to sleep in?
Hey Don...anything new to report?...NWS seems to be downplaying the snow potential with this...even if we don't get much accumulation, wouldn't any falling snow combined with the winds we'll see create almost blizzard-like conditions at times?...thanks
Hi folks
In our area, Environment Canada has issued a wind warning, blowing snow warning and flash freeze warning. Risk of winds gusting over 100-k/60 mph with the odd blast to 110-k/66mph in exposed areas beginning around 4am Wed. Maybe 5cm of snow/2 inches.
I recall the big wind of Jan 9th, but in that event we had a deluge of rain(over 2 inches) prior to the front moving in. The weather office isn't suggesting much rain from this----just routine.
Like CH 4, low key about chance of significant snow from any LES.
It has been awhile since I've seen that many warnings attatched to the pm forecast.
We'll see what happens.
I Dont About The Other School District but Tommorow The Buffalo Public School Students Have A Day Off Because It Is Superattendant Day So Thank God They WONT BE lot of kids waiting for the bus at the time of this event
And Soprano3695.......
Do You Know What A High Wind Warning Means It Is A Severe Term Used By The National Weather Service When Sustain Winds Of 40 MPH With Gust Over 58 So People Have To Be Preaped For Any Weather Related Problems So Thats Why They Are Concerned With This Wind Event
And Don Paul.........
I See The Storm Coming On Friday On All The Models And I Think This Storm Dosen't Look Cold As Earlier Runs But Is There A Possibility This Track Would Change
Thanks
Hey Barrie
Can You Give Me The Link To The Enviromental Canada Forecast Discussion Because I couldn't Find One At Their Website
Thanks
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php
i
Ayuud:
I am fully aware.
Here's the criteria that the NWS Buffalo office uses to issue a HIGH WIND WARNING: Expected winds will average 40 mph or more for at least 1 hour or winds gusts will be greater than 58 mph. Trees and power lines can be blown down. Be sure to secure your loose garbage cans if you want to keep them around along with any other loose objects. Unfortunately, winds of this magnitude may cause some property damage.
MB...
as an expert do you think these winds could cause some damage to my satalite on the roof because i just watched Don's Forecast And He Said The Front When It Passes Wny There Will Be Some Gusts Over 60MPH with a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
Ayuud,
Why would you think anyone could venture a guess about your satellite dish? If it survived the Jan 9 windstorm, it'll probably survive this one.
Guess we should be happy we are not seeing this cold:
NWS Duluth, MN
Point Forecast: 12 Miles SSE Aitkin MN
46.38N -93.59W
Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around -17. Wind chill values Tonight: Partly cloudy, with a low around -21. Wind chill values as low as -43. Breezy, with a west wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny and cold, with a high near -1. Wind chill values as low as -43. North wind between 5 and 10 mph, with gusts as high as 15 mph.
Source:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?site=MPX&map.x=177&map.y=22
=================================
Is it true lightning can be in multi colors , red, green, blue and if so how does this happen.
Don...........
I Was Asking That Because i ordered a wrestling pay per view and i didnt want to miss it ..it is a can't miss event
The Storm Is Really Producing Some Significant Damage across Kentucky/Illinios/Tennesse And Many Other States ...Highest Gust Was REported was 85
Don or MB
Good evening.
I know comparisons are being made to the Jan 9 wind storm. Ahead of that storm, our region got about 63 mm of rain and the weather office gave plenty of heads up about heavy rain before the winds. This time the focus is wind and flash freeze warnings. From a WNY perspective, I know rain is in the forecast, but could you share with me why it would appear not to be as big a deal this time around. Or am I off base here? I ask this as someone who is just curious?
Many thanks.
Ayuud: Here's my daily dish on your question....All structures have a wind load limit. When a structure undergoes several high wind episodes, it may cause a continual release of tension over time which would cause it to weaken. Overall, I agree with Don...you probably will hang on to your dish.
barrie1; there just isn't as much moisture available with this front and, of what there is, a little may be stolen by convection to our SW.
But if you remember my complicated thread about isallobaric pressure couplets having led to the severity of the Jan 9 windstorm, models and actual observations are suggesting a 3 hr 15mb pressure jump. Combined with the funneling effect coming up the axis of Lk Erie, that will be more than adequate to produce damaging wind gusts, and similar to the pressure couplet of Jan 9. Your location will be a bit closer to 1 of the 2 storm systems and its tight gradient, so you'll get some doozy gusts as well.
Alright MB Thanks For the Reply
Interesting Question
Today In Our Meteroligy Class Our Teacher Asked Us This Question And Told us He Would Give A Prize To Whoever Answers
"If it is 0C degrees today, and it is supposed to be twice as cold tomorrow, how cold will it be?
Most Of The Majority Class Said It Was -10 to -20 range Unfortunatly i was included too I'm smart, but I still didn't know this
He Told Us The Answer Was
"The Kelvin scale measures heat energy, and starts at absolute zero, the temperature at which all motion of molecules stops. This is equal to minus 273.16 degrees Celsius. So zero degrees Celsius (32 degrees Fahrenheit) would be 273.16 degrees Kelvin. Twice as cold would be half of the heat energy measured in Kelvin, so if you divide 273.16 in half, you would get 136.58 degrees Kelvin. Converting that back to Celsius, you would get a temperature of minus 136.58 degrees Celsius, which is much colder than the world record low temperature of minus 89.6 degrees C set in 1983 in Antarctica. So it isn’t likely that the temperature will be half as low as zero Celsius anytime soon."
One Of The Hardest And Trickiest Weather Questions I Have Ever Seen
soprano, I just noticed your response to josh-b. I don't make the call on school closings, but I suspect there will be quite a number of them in the AM. In addition to the potential for widespread wind damage, power outages, and debris, there also will be a rapid freezeup on the roads in the predawn hours with a quick burst of snow and temporary whiteout conditions.
Of course, Buffalo schools are closed for a conference day to begin with, so those kids get to sleep in for sure....
Mr Don,
That's quite the squall line over Indiana, will lake erie once again not affect this? Will there be a lake shadow?
HAMBURG SCHOOLS CLOSED, YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!
marinecore; the convection will likely weaken a bit by the time it gets here, but not really because of the lake. It will be racing out ahead of its upper air support into our more stable conditions, but it will likely hold together as a squall line with the potential for damaging gusts. Winds will be southerly ahead of the front, so any lake shadow effect would be minimal, rather than with a prevailing SW flow. Rainfall will not be as significant as with the Jan 9 episode, but the dynamics for wind are very impressive.
Don...is the timing still about where you had it at 6pm...the squall line is passing through Dayton Ohio right now...doesn't this seem to indicate arrival here a little earlier than 3-4am?...or am I wrong?...thanks
marinecorps (or anyone)...do you know why Hamburg closed this early?...is it in anticipation of the storm, or is there a pre-existing condition like water main break, etc...if not, this would be almost unprecedented closing this early with just the anticipation of weather, not it actually happening or recovery from (i.e. '77, October Storm)...give update if possible...thanks
The Storm Prediction Ctr has removed WNY from the Slt Risk area. Soundings from Buffalo and Pittsburgh show a strong stable layer in place. I still think something akin to a squall line will cross the region, but it may be without lightning by then, and peak gusts with the line--based on the soundings--may not be as strong as the 4:20am squall line of Jan 9. Fairly sustained high winds behind the front still look highly likely.
Don,two things.One is I hope you do not have another OH S*+%& event.No offense.I just remember laughing when I read that post from you after it got worse than most expected earlier this month.
And two,your post of this one is rhetorical but I just have to add.I find the possiblities quite interesting.My best friend moved to SF and her husband had never seen snow before he came to visit here a couple times.He also had seen Cal winds but not like here and not cold.He wondered why we are always wishing for major events and no matter how bad things get we always say after it either was no big deal,or even if things get bad they will never reach as bad as say the Oct storm or the Blizzard.I told him simply that when you are from here,and things happen really fast and your life can depend on know what the wind,temp and snow will be,you try to downplay anything.If you admit things are bad they are much harder to take.I told him its easier for me to walk out to a 50 mph wind with 20 below wind chills and say its not that bad,or I have seen worse simply because admitting its bad makes it harder to do.I told him major events can be fun,especially trying to figure out how to do something.Like when you get feet of snow that chokes the snowblower its fun to try 3 methods of getting out of your front door than just the same one boring way.Buffalo weather has to involve humor.Otherwise no one would stand it long,self pity or fear makes you hide where defiance and indifference is a great cover for fear.If you want an example of people from Buffalo needing humor?Most cities would think twice about playing football in a blizzard.I remember in the 90s there was a bills game that it was snowing so hard you could barely see anyone,and I remember one player about to catch a ball and the wind caught it and blew it 90 degrees behind his head and missed.Not only is it funny to know that we are not 'bright' enough,or are defiant enough to not cancel the game instead,but playing it opens the door to the jokes and videos that we get picked on so much.I think we secretly love to give them ammunition just to say how tough we are,so we can go home,put the thick socks on,the thermals on,two blankets,long johns in front of the fire and freeze in peace.Just my opinion.
"This time the focus is wind and flash freeze warnings. From a WNY perspective, I know rain is in the forecast, but could you share with me why it would appear not to be as big a deal this time around. Or am I off base here? I ask this as someone who is just curious"
Hmmm...Storm Prediction Center has downgraded thunderstorm potential...could we be in for another colossal let down?...could this somehow peter out before it gets here (seems unlikely)...you know the superintendent in Hamburg is sweating it out hoping it's total mayhem, or he will get hammered!! I heard it's his first year on the job!!
See my post from 9:30 storm watcher. Gary Indiana just had a gust to 58, Kokomo to 56 and Indy to 51, from the pressure couplet behind the cold front. And that's without any of the funneling which will occur from BUF to ROC w/boundary layer winds coming up the axis of L Erie.
Colossal letdown? Are you HOPING for widespread damage? This isn't how many inches of snow we're concerned with--it's how much damage will occur. It's severe weather, and it's not a good thing.
Don 1031 pm post:
Thank you for reminding us of this , yes snow is great , but if for some chance lake snows( kick up more than expected), or it gets colder ( wind chills),even wind gusts reach over 60 mph , we are probably in for some pretty good damage..
This is where our weather should get serious , not playful. Be safe nite travelers..
PS: My house in Hamburg shows , 50 degrees , winds already picking up..Grr no daycare for my kids yet , working tommorow..
Don...didn't mean to send the wrong message...definitely not hoping for widespread damage...am just fascinated by the weather, the power of nature, and what it can do...when I said letdown, I meant that we've had some anticipated major events forecasted this year, and many of them have fallen short of what was predicted....hope everyone stays safe, hope no one loses power, but am hoping for impressive conditions....hope that clears things up...
I live in Lockport and think I can hear some wind already.This should be interesting.
storm watcher,
I get a little over-excited off the air at times myself, but I do try to differentiate between destructive events and wintry weather w/snow.
Doesn't mean I won't be looking out the window in wonder--but I WILL keep my puppies in the patio for their walk, instead of taking them out in the open. They could get blown away!
Morning bloggers!!....quite gusty here in West Seneca...can see out the window that roads are a sheet of ice...cars travelling very slowly, still skidding through intersection...if you have to venture out, take it easy...luckily, no school buses or kids out on the roads...virtually every district is closed...now waiting for the lake effect to kick in...
Woo 81.8mph at 5:53am with a high of 52.7'F at 3:01am. loving these wind events
Sounds like a freight train in Lockport this morning! I like to listen to the live Buffalo airport feed on windy days like this. you can find it here:
http://www.liveatc.net/
feedindex.php?type=class-c
Scroll down and click on Buffalo, should be some interesting listening today.
Well it is officical,I'm not getting my snowmobile registered. I might as well buy a 4-wheeler.....or a wind jammer....lol.
Patti
Serious flooding reported near Fuhrmann Blvd, along Buffalo River, and some ice may be coming over the boom down the Niag Rvr as well as being driven onshore along the Erie Co shoreline. Peak gust at NWS is 64mph--gusts to a little over 70 indicated near the shoreline and harbor.
Lake and river levels should begin to slowly recede later this AM. Near whiteout conditions will flare up briefly across the Niag Frontier, with up to 3" possible before lake snow winds down mid/late afternoon.
No major changes from last night's forecast, except the temp has dropped even a bit more quickly than the dramatic plunge we'd indicated. 34 degrees in 4 hours!
Don,
Do you possibly see any snow enough for snowmobiling in the near future for the Centerville Rushford area.......?
Patti
There are white-out conditions here in O.P. Even though the snow has been on and off, the intense winds have been extremely constant. I don't even know what the wind gusts are because my little weather station outside broke!
Lindsay and Melissa, you are VERY brave to be standing outside in this. You two are doing a wonderful job! Thank you for the great coverage :) (that goes for all the meteorologists on channel 4)
looks as if the snow might pack more of a punch than expected? lake bands seem to be organizing a little better.
Could someone tell me where I can find wind gust statistics?
Thx.
Can someone tell Lindsey to put on a hat?!?!?
Anon, I was thinking that Lindsay might be calling in sick if she doesnt cover herself!
I think they are trying to get some good Weather Channel footage! LOL!
Take that Jim Cantore!!!!
I Wake Up And I Was Putting The Garbage Outside And I See My Satallite Broke And Thrown Away To The Street So I Ran To My House To Check The Wind Gust And I Couldn't Believe What I Saw.........Sustain Winds Of 50MPH With Wind Gust Of 70 MPH I Though My Weather Station Was Having Some Difficulities With The Wind So I Checked The Aquatic Field Station At Buffalo State College (About 1 mile from my house) And It Had The Same Wind Speed As My Station With Wind Speeds Of 48Mph With Peak Gust Of 69MPH WOOOOOOOOOOWW!!!!!!!!!!
Don ........AREN'T THIS KINDA OF WIND QUALIFY TO BE A HURICANE FORCE WIND
The snow has started to be constant here in OP. It reminds me of that one white-out storm we had last year, except the winds are a lot worse.
Ayuud........
WOOOOOOOOOOW!!!!!! What Is The Name Of Your Weather Station?
Mines Too Ayuud
Davis Vantage Pro2
Weather Station
yours?
same here bob what was your peak wind gust...........
here at checktewaga is very windy with sustained winds of 40 mph with peak gust of 64Mph
Peak gust to 81 around 5am at Starpoint Central; 68mph at NWS.
Serious flooding in old First Ward, from Buffalo Rvr.
Hi all,
Out here in Grand Island, at 10 am, it is just snowing at the moment. Of course, we've had the wind and will continue having it, but for a minute there, I even saw a little bit of sun shine through the clouds!
Keep safe everyone!!
Kelly
Total blizzard conditions in West Seneca right now...I can only imagine that this is what it was like in '77, only obviously much longer in duration..
Don Is This Real
The Aquatic Field Station At The West Side Received 13.29 Rain Or Is It Due To The Drifting
We can't see ANYTHING here in OP right now! I mean, literally, we can't even see a tree ten feet from our house!
Stay warm all of you reporters outside right now.
NWS has now posted a Winter Storm Warning for all of WNY until 3 pm...possible 4-6 inches of snow...Don...any late breaking changes in the forecast?...thanks..
Newspaper (Buffalo Snooze) report...yet this is surprisingly interesting...
"("The lake rose 8 1/2 feet in two hours," McLaughlin said. "This is probably the second highest reading we've ever recorded.")
That phenomenon is known as a seiche, and McLaughlin likened it to a powerful fan on a shallow pool, pushing the water from one side to the other. In this case, Lake Erie dropped some 5 feet in the Toledo area.
The rapid rise in the lake flooded areas such as the Erie Basin Marina and isolated spots on both the American and Canadian sides of the lake."
I wish there were travel bans in conditions like these. My husband had to go to work in these conditions and I'll be worried all day about him getting stuck or stranded! What will the drive time commute look like for the region?!?!?!?
Thanks?
worried in CHTWGA
storm watcher: Pls be careful of posting misinformation. The NWS zone forecast is for 1-3", not 4-6. It's possible a few spots could receive as much as 4, but measuring in winds like these is next to impossible. Still too much wind shear and dry air coming in for that much snow--although there will be brief whiteouts.
That's a sensor problem at the Buff State site.
Conditions will be somewhat improved for the commute home, with peak gusts coming down to 40-50.
define "somewhat" please?
It's defined: pk gusts come down to 40-50, okay?
HOLY S*!#! thats about all i can say this morning. my mom wakes me up around 550 this morning to tell us we dont have school today and i go NUTS. i could hear the wind PUMMELING our house, it was kinda scary. i finally woke up around 900 this morning, and what do i see? HEAVY, HEAVY snow with TREMENDOUS wind and WHITEOUT conditions at times. we could barely see down the street which is merely about 500 feet away or less. awesome.
so throughout the morning t he snow would pick up then subside for a while and then pick up again, typical lake snow. see, i had a feeling that even with a suothwest fetch we would not be limited to AT LEAST some lake effect. and guess what, everybody? this may be good or bad depending on where you live:
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR NORTHERN ERIE, NIAGARA, ORLEANS, GENESEE, AND WYOMING COUNTIES UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON!!!!!!
they just upgraded the winter weather advisory, but still, theyre only saying 1-3 inches. the biggest issue, of course, that prompted the warning was the wind, and the fact that even in light snow, a 70 mph gust will make it hard to see through.
and talk about wind!! fortunately up in wheatfield, there are just a LOT of branches and debris scattered about, but no huge trees to speak of, and our house luckily has power. not the same for everyone else because about 60,000 are in the dark.
one thing has been running through my mind as i watched various news stations this morning: WAS IT REALLY SUPPOSED TO GET THIS BAD? i mean, this is insane! right now, there is water flooding the first ward, and with the cold temperatures, that water could freeze up quickly and remain frozen for DAYS. could you imagine? people's cars are stuck there and theres no way they will be able to get them out or even get out of the house themselves. even the area of niagara falls is under a flash flood warning, although im not sure if were really gonna get flooded in here. o well, its still exciting either way and the NWS issued the warning where they did for a reason. just seeing the pictures - windows shattered, parts of roofs blowing off, shingles, garbage cans, tractor traliers tipped over, boats overturned, ice, water, and slush flooding in areas near the lake and the niagara river - WHERE DID ALL THIS COME FROM?!?!?! no offense, but this wind and snow event was WAY UNDERPREDICTED. we could be talking about people without power through tomorrow, huge property damage, and people stranded in their homes.
and for all you who think a warning doesnt mean anything, heres my take: when a warning is issued, that means there is almost COMPLETE CERTANITY that HAZARDOUS or LIFE-THREATENING weather is beckoning, and people should take the proper precautions to stay safe. NO WARNING SHOULD BE TAKEN LIGHTLY. that goes out for all of you who thought this wasnt going to be as bad as you thought (ie. soprano). THIS IS A SERIOUS SITUATION. winds are gusting OVER HURRICANE FORCE AT TIMES and sustanied from 30-40 mph upward. so im expecting more power outages and trees down to come.
as if this wasnt enough, there is a weather event friday that proves to bear watching, but with all the hoopla today, not many are paying attention. but the way i see it, this storm could be bigger and better (at least there will be more snow - the wind factor? probably not as bad.) so on thursday, a storm system will emerge from the rockies and start to get a connection from the gulf. this storm will bring severe thunderstorms to the deep south and a swath of possibly HEAVY SNOW to places like kansas city and st. louis that dont see major snowstorms often. thats why there is a large swath of winter storm watches through the midwest, in anticipation for where this storm goes. going through thursday night and into firday is when we're going to see the brunt of the action. snow should pick up late thursday night and there could be some possible accumulation all across WNY. by morning, however, the snow could mix with sleet and ice the further south you go, and might even change into a little rain depending on the track. however, mike cejka, and i myself, think that the further north you go, the best chance the snow will stay all snow, and it could be a significant accumulation. thats the best chance of what could happen friday, though accumulations are skecthy at best. don paul, do you have an idea for accumulations and where the best chance of heavy accumulating snow will be? and how do you rate this next storm? could it be a potential WHOPPER, or just a significant storm? to all you out there braving the elements and in the thick of it, stay strong. if youre out of power or stuck in floodwater, i feel for you, this is definitely a weather event we will not forget soon. GO SNOW!!
Oh man Don...
This is worse than I ever thought it would be! Thank you so much for giving us a "heads up." What a storm!!! Who would have guessed that EVERY WNY school district would ether delayed or closed today... and likely tomorrow too unless the power comes back on every where. AND what do I hear about Friday's weather?!! Friday could be a big one too... as stated by Mike... and from what he said so far about Fri, it looks that way! Oh boy... we dont get a break!
o and btw...right now whiteout conditions with very heavy snow
It's bright and sunny here at Niagara University but the winds are really whipping! The wind and the cold make it unbearable outside!
What about the snow?
Will it taper before drive time...looks like these bands are thinner due to sheer but those thin (ribbon)bands are quite intense!
All this talk of blizzards...Mother nature is listening!
weatherfreak: I'll put it bluntly. Either you didn't watch last night, or you don't know what you're talking about. We were the only source who forecasted flooding, we called for widespread wind damage, power outages, 1-3" of snow, gusts over 60, a terrible morning was forecast--ON THE MONEY.