Limited Lake Snow Potential, Coming Pattern Change
Late Tuesday evening, some limited lake snow is beginning to organize over parts of wrn Michigan, as the boundary layer is picking up a little more humidity to work with. This will bring similar conditions to srn Erie & Wyoming Cos in the predawn hours, with a possible drift toward the Buffalo Stowns for a few hours by/during early morning. Amounts will not be overly impressive--up to 3" by morning on the hills, and another 2-4" possible in spots on Wednesday. Even if the band does jog a little north, its residence time over the Buffalo Stowns will not be lengthy enough to produce more than a few inches before the band settles back further south again--and that jog north is uncertain. As a trough with the colder airmass behind it sinks into WNY Wednesday night, sct snow shwrs will be likely across our region by later in the evening into Thursday, but with mainly light accumulations. This next shot of arctic air will not be accompanied by as much wind as Sunday's blast, so it won't feel as cold. Temperatures will begin to moderate on a Breezy Friday, but that breeze will still create a significant wind chill. On Saturday, some light wet snow is likely with continued moderation into the low 30s, with a brisk breeze. Sunday could see a few lt snow or mixed shwrs, but some partial sun should break through. An Alberta Clipper on Monday will have no arctic air to tap, so most of its precip will be liquid. After a still mild Tuesday, the pattern will be more unstable with a more active storm track, but not so much arctic air as we've seen this week. Averaged out, the upper air pattern will tend to be more zonal/west-to-east, keeping the really cold stuff bottled up in Canada.
The lake will begin icing more by Friday, but the moderating trend for the weekend and early next week will slow the freezing process.
PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.
The lake will begin icing more by Friday, but the moderating trend for the weekend and early next week will slow the freezing process.
PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO SUBMIT YOUR IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.
posted by Don Paul at
10:28 PM
68 Comments:
Observation from boston, about 4 inches of snow and it's coming down hard. Lake erie is 33 degrees but with it getting warmer i don't feel the lake will freeze. Remember even if the lake hits 32, it takes a while to freeze to the point where we can't get lake effect. The ice is mostly slushy ice and some of it might even melt next week.
Currently in Holland, not much wind in the valley but moderate snow. Big, fluffy stuff, easy blowing snow ;) Can't wait to see what is waiting for me when I get home!!
LAKE SNOW WARNING FOR SO. ERIE, CATT, CHAUTAUQUA, WYOMING COS. a foot is possible.
The lake snow has become better organized than expected this morning. As per the NWS warning statement, this band should remain primarily over the Boston Hills and southern Wyoming Co, as well as nrn Chau & Catt Cos. A few hills may see more than a foot, with 1-2 per hour snowfall rates in the heaviest part of the band. Some lightning will be possible.
Don i see there are lake snow warnings for lower Michigan until 1 pm tomorrow. Is there any chance our lake effect could keep going that long? They say there best chance out there is for midday today into tonight.
Just had to wipe almost a foot of fluffy snow off my car just now in Holland. Still snowing at a consistent rate. Bring more snow!
Later tonight, a weak area of low pressure will begin to disrupt this well organized band, and the flow will become more NNWly. Snow Shwrs will be around tomorrow from the low, and there may be a bit more along the Chautauqua ridge, but well organized lake snow after tonight seems unlikely.
Still, there will be plenty of time for this narrowing, intense band to produce some hefty totals over a foot today and this evening.
In North Collins its coming down hard, very hard we got atleast 6 or 7 inches and no let up in sight. I think that advisory banner needs to be changed
southtowner, the "advisory" banner was changed as soon as it was upgraded to a Warning, for some time now.
It's really strange how the weather around here is, it hasn't snowed at all in Orchard Park today. In fact, we've been getting some sun. :)
Oh wait, never mind. I don't think we're even expecting snow. :P
Here in Collins, we have almost a foot of snow and it's still coming! I do not like snow anymore as it is very difficult for me to walk in it. Please make it stop!!
ok now up to 8 in boston, snowing with visibilities about 0.1 miles. band is now forecast to not move. We will probably top a foot of snow by 6pm.
I would love to steal the snow from anonymous in Collins. Unfortunately that's not possible. :( Please tell me the snow has a chance of coming here.
I was in south boston/east eden area today, was snowing heavily with over a foot already. I have pictures of it, it was awesome. Beautiful big flaked snow and accumulating very fast!
The snow has been coming down strong and heavy ALL day here in Fredonia! Love it!!
Band should hang tough into at least early evening.
Hey Don,
NWS just posted a Lake snow Advisory for Niagara County.
Any idea how far south off of Lake Ontario the band will go?
Don I Just Downloaded the Intergrated Data Viewer From Unidata And I Need Help With It
And What is the best weather software i can purchase under 25,000 That is Great For Storm Tracking and Have HD option
Thanks
Ok so much for 6pm, we topped a foot now. Still snowing hard, about 18-20 inches on the ground. We had 6 on the ground this morning. Plows atleast the boston highway dept. has kept the roads fairly clear. 219 is probably very rough.
The strong band to the south may become somewhat disrupted this evening as a short wave approaching from the NW will create additional wind shear.
The original post notes: "Amounts will not be overly impressive--up to 3" by morning on the hills, and another 2-4" possible in spots on Wednesday."
We seem to have just a tad more than that here in Colden.
You do not have 18-20 inches of snow there, go learn how to measure. Take a ruler and measure 20 inches of snow I highly highly doubt you have that much there. According to don's radar precip monitor the most is around 10 inches of snow in WNY. Maybe a foot at most, not 20 inches.
anonymous: theres was 6 from previous snowfall. with about another foot.
As of 6pm, the highest amount of new snow reported is around 12 inches at Colden.
I'll make sure to calrify next time. I meant a foot today with 18-20 on the ground. thats because there was 6 on the ground to begin with.
marinecore, your first post on this topic was perfectly clear. It's not your fault this particular anonymous person didn't read it properly.
ok i was just making sure, I didn't measure by a ruler tho so when i say there's a foot it's just a guess.
northward drifts puts boston and colden smack in the heaviest snow
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BUF&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Why does it look like its moving towards buffalo ?
I live in North Boston and it's snowing very hard here!! Looked like the band shifted north a little!! We have at least 9 inches of new snow and it's still coming down!!
I just arrived in Buff traveled up from PA. I-90 at Silver creek was a grave yard of jacked knife tractor trailers and stranded vehicles. I bet many going too fast for the conditions.. Unbelievable! Traffic was still moving but very very slow! Rush hr / twilight and heavy snow (2" /hr)!! Dangerous if you plan to travel down there..
NWS snowspotter have Colden at 15.5inches, and Boston at 14.
Band is nearly stationary, and no disruption is visible on radar despite the approach of a short wave. Obviously, some parts of the Boston Hills are going up and over the 18" mark by late evening!
I'm in South Wales near Emery Park and we have a "24-7" measuring stick that reads 24". We started with about 6" on the ground last night.
My mistake, not the measuring stick's! It's at 20", not 24".
Only 2.5 inches today in Arcade.Don whattime do you think the band will begin shifting south again? Do you think it will make it to Arcade before weakens over night? We sure could use more snow on the trails around here.
Mike,
I don't think Arcade will get nearly as much as srn Erie Co, because the wind fields will be too weak when the shift occurs to carry the true lake snow too far inland.
yea u got the right mr. Don Paul, snow is knee deep in my back yard. boston has a lot of snow. It reminds me of last year February. Snowbanks are big. Still snowing. Big time totals of snow. Sure won't hurt Kissing Bridge.
eveyone, here in north collins still snowing, i came home from buffalo at 4pm and when i opened my truck the snow was right there...now my truck has another 5 inches on it, and it is NOT letting up at all. North collins is getting hit big time.
DON i just saw they are saying it let up in springville, well it has not here in north collins, still coming down!!!! when do u expect this band to finally disorganize..??
Not sure of the hour, stowner, but our sfc/boundary layer winds are dying out, and winds may well become light & variable after midnight. Lk snow should weaken by/during the predawn hours as a low pressure area passes near, and causes wind shear.
Don I was just looking at the window and we had about and 1 inch and half here in westside of buffalo Btw how are we getting lake snow and the wind is more westerly ,,,,, Doesnt that favor south of buffalo S'TOWNS
thanks
Late evening update: This has been a bear of lake effect event to handle, and it still is increasing my gray hair count. A frontal boundary to our north has slowed to a crawl, so the veering from the weak SW flow to a weak NW flow (which would break up the lake snow in srn Erie/nrn Chau Cos) is being delayed, likely until the predawn hours. That means locations like N Collins, Boston, Colden, and Silver Creek will end up with close to 2 feet before sunrise. General snow shwrs will overspread most of the rest of WNY overnight and into Thursday from a little low passing nearby, giving a 1-3" coating those those locales not impacted directly by the lake snow. As the flow veer NWly, that will bring more Lk Ontario snow onshore into Niag & Orl Cos, where 2-5" could accumulate by mid-morning Thursday.
Since winds will remain light through mid afternoon Thursday, blowing & drifting will no longer complicate matters, and should make it easier for plow operators.
A brisk WSW flow will redevelop later Thur night, and that could set up some weaker lk snow again in Ski Co or the srn tier, though Super Microcast is showing slim pickings for moisture.
ok another 4 inches overnight. this is crazy. the snow is almost waist deep in my back yard. I have no school because i have no midterms today. I'll enjoy the snow and hope more comes. As for amounts on the ground. We have to have about 25 or 26 inches on the ground. subtract 6 because there was six to begin with, and that means around 20 inches of snow. That's a lot.
i wish i had no midterm exams today but i have a midterm today i would have make a visit to the south towns and see how 25 inches of snow look like
We live on Route 5 in the City of Dunkirk. At 9 am this morning we measured 15 inches of snow...and it's still snowing!
Really snowing in Middleport (niagara county). About 3 inches so far I would estimate.
Another 2-4 tonight. it just keeps comin. O well i like the snow. Sounds good Mr. Don.
Don-
After this little warm-up coming late this weekend into early next week, I noticed that the temps are supposed to dip back down near or below freezing Wed and Thur. Will the temps next week after this warm-up be at or below freezing for a while, or do you see milder temps in general... not cold enough to support snow? Are there any "weather events" coming up in the future that is worth keeping an eye on? Thanks!
Tom,
The midweek cooldown next week will bring us back to seasonable temps, rather than the below normal temps we've had this week. But the overall storm track from the srn plains may become more active, sending several storm systems to the NE over the next couple of weeks. The paths of these storms are unclear this far out, so I can't say whether or not we'll see more snow, mixed precip, or rain.
As of 9:25, no sign of organized lake snow upwind of us. That very limited lake effect potential for ski country toward morning is looking even more limited at this point....
thats ok Mr. Don, ski country has enough, pretty soon me and my dad are gonna half to get on the roof because the roof will start stressing. It really doesn't half to snow another 4 inches. 20 is enough.
Notice how the blog has calmed down a lot... no big storm to talk about lol... and nothing really on the way... yet!
Don ....
the gfs and it's ensembles are showing a storm over the gulf coast but the storm track is in question but the gfs model and it's ensembles form this storm across the gulf coast then track up across the tenesse valley then into the ohio valley bringing mild air with it but a High Pressure over winniperg will provide us with some cold air with any precip falling will be snow but let's say this storm tracks close to our region that would bring mild air to our region and any precip will be in the form of rain but if this storm tracks just few miles east of us it could give us some decent snow
Feel Free to commnet don and i know u will say there a lot of uncertains for this storm but 15 consevitive runs of the gfs and it shows this storm atleast there must be something
doesn't look like their is any snow potential for the rest of the year in Buff.
Pitchers and Catchers report soon and CBS is already advertising for the Masters.. Spring will be here next week....
Lay off the mets and save money!!
Are there any signs of lake snow on Wednesday? with temps at 29 or 30 degrees and NWS discussion said westerly winds, could there be a little lake snow in ski co.? I suspect the lake to be probably around 33. With the warm up, most of the lake should stay ice-free or have slushy ice.
I don't know if the witty anonymous meant lay off the mets or lay off the Mets; many NYers would agree with the latter.
It appears a sharp cold front will cross the region early Tuesday night--maybe with a rumble of thunder--and temps will take a quick tumble into the 20s with strong winds. Some lake snow is likely following a little burst of synoptic snow, marinecore. The current configuration in the latest run of the GFS suggests a Wly flow. But since this run is quite a bit more vigorous than the previous run, there will be lots of adjustments in the forecast to come, I'm sure.
Ayuud--are you counting runs (15)? I worry about you. Yes, the operational GFS suggests a well developed storm system will pull up out of the south. It's path, east, west, or over us--at this time--is impossible to determine. Period.
Are there any good snow chances this up-coming week? The temps are supposed to drop Tue night... will there be any snow tue night on, from what you can tell now? AND will temps be above freezing for most of next week, and as far as you can see?
Looks like our next importiant weather event to keep an eye on will be Tue night on into Wed. Thundershowers on Tue, turning to snow at night, and possibaly a burst. Slight chance of LES on Wed. along with general snow showers.
Will,
I JUST addressed all that on the air, 2 minutes ago, and have addressed much of it on this thread, and it will be on the website in a little bit as well, 'kay?
For Tuesday, it's mainly showers-chance of a tstorm as a sharp cold front passes thru late in the day, followed by strong winds and rain turning to synoptic snow--a modest accum is possible overnight and into early Wed. Some lake snow is likely at least late at night into early Wed--more than a slight chance, I'd say, but fetch and duration do not look overly impressive at this point.
the climate prediction center is hinting at next week weeken storm here is what they aid
" THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PREDICTED DEVELOPMENT OF A STORM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ONE PROBLEM IS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA, WHILE THE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE (AND INSTABILITY) REMAINS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, RESULTING IN A DECOUPLED SYSTEM. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT NEAR OR OVER ARKANSAS WHICH WOULD HELP ADVECT MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH, AS WELL AS INFLUENCE THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILE. FOR NOW, WE ARE EXPECTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION AXIS TO EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND NEW ENGLAND, THOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION MAY FALL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CYCLONIC SYSTEM ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA, BUT THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT THE DELINEATION OF A SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AREA ON OUR MAIN GRAPHIC"
u see don thee is some possibility we could get this storm and Ayuud is right it could give us some heavy snow ccumalations if it pans out
Lake Erie has finally reached 32 degrees at our end. Satellite imagery indicates some slush ice now covers the SW 1/4 of the lake, with a little gathering up against Long Point.
Lake snow is shifting north at this hour, with the heaviest of this limited band over the Boston Hills. The snow should slowly weaken a little this afternoon, as temperatures aloft will be moderating. Lots of blowing snow on N-S roads with this band, and even some blowing snow in open country where the sun is out.
finally been on the backyard rink since sunday. what a late start this year! hopefully only brief warmup next week that we can keep the base
Mr. Don,
Did you ever see the snowfall maps of the lake effect storms, they are on the lake effect page on noaa.gov. It's pretty cool stuff.
Excellent long range discussion this afternoon in the Area Forecast Discussion from the Buffalo NWS. It basically supports what I've been saying on this blog about our long range trends this winter.
Hey Don,
The shore ice formed along many of the beaches on 20 January. These beaches on the day before were clear of ice. The slush mixed with larger chunks of ice has formed at more beaches.
The Ice Boom camera gives some idea how fast this ice came with the ripping fall of eastern Lake Erie water temperatures. We have deeper water here than in the western part of Lake Erie. It will be interesting to see if this warm up and rain fall will melt down some of this ice and slush.
I wasn't expecting the lake to freeze this year. As it stands those who ice fish are not going to get a lot of time to do so. However I don't have your job. What do you think the rest of the winter will be like? Will we have on the average above winter air temperatures above freezing?temperatures.
Even though people got so much snow yesterday, we did not see any snow at all here in the Medina,N.Y. area.
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