Meltdown for Awhile; Wintrier by Next Weekend?
Temperatures will continue to moderate over the weekend, reaching the mid 40s Sunday, the low 50s (even with clouds & a few shwrs) on Monday, and the upper 50s on a strong southerly/downslope wind on Tuesday. Late Tuesday, strong winds aloft and a cold front will usher in some showers & possible tstorms, turning to a little snow by Wednesday morning. The airmass behind this front will not be terribly cold, and will still actually run somewhat above normal, with low to mid 40s possible again on Thursday and Friday. Most global models have been erratic further out in time, but there is a general trend toward somewhat more wintry temperatures developing during next weekend, with at least some limited snowfall possible. With erratic models will likely come an erratic extended outlook for the next couple of days, so that explains the "?" in the title for this thread.
posted by Don Paul at
10:26 PM
65 Comments:
Don,
1.2 MILLION customers are out of power..I posted some rattling stats on the previos blog:
In the last 42 hours since midnight Wednesday, of the 42 hourly observations, Ward Mountain has had:
sustained above 40 mph (gale force) - 37 of 42
sustained above 60 mph (storm force) - 25 of 42
sustained above 74 mph (hurricane force) - 9 of 42
sustained above 95 mph (Cat 2 force) - 3 of 42 (assuming 99 mph on the 6999 reading)
gusts above 74 mph (hurricane force) - 34 of 42
gusts above 95 mph (Cat 2 force) - 19 of 42
gusts above 110 mph (Cat 3 force) - 12 of 42 (incl. 11 straight hours!)
gusts above 130 mph (Cat 4 force) - 5 of 42 (incl. 4 straight hours!)
gusts above 155 mph (Cat 5 force) - 3 of 42
pretty impressive!!!
That 15.3 seconds devoted to the storm was really subpar.
949 mb pressure
I didn't know Don and the Weather Watch 4 team was supposed to do an impression of the weather channel. I and most of the people I know really care more about what is happening and going to happen here in our area and region. I felt satisfied with the coverage that was provided for the Western areas. Plus.... there are always good folks like you on this blog who can, and do, go as in depth with information and questions as you want. I enjoy that kind of stuff here on the blog. Don't take up all my limited television time with a long disertation. Just my humble opinion.
Back in town and watching News 4!
Bob
Don,
Whatever happened to the Weather Channel's Dr. Paul Cosin? They used to do an in depth analysis of Winter storms when he was there. It was very interesting for us AmMets. It seems the weather channel has just gives you the forescast they don't get into the analysis like Paul. Do you know if he is affliated with another channel?
I thnk Don and team should have there own channel--Continous whether.. They could have us all on once in a while.
I kindly disagree with Bob.
Please take as long as you like to talk about all whether 24-7..
Your comments are appreciaited.
to mention of the long range dicussion. the NWS said that there will be a pacific flow and the weather will be cool not cold. they didnt mention anything about a pattern change. o well i hope they are because i want a cold hard winter. i hate this up and down stuff. mostly because i am a skiier and it needs to stay cold.
i meant to say i hope they are wrong about the pacific flow.
MC3008: There are no signs of a lengthy cold spell. In fact, the roller-coaster ride is projected to continue, and in the short term, it's a high temp hill we're climbing. Some old records are in serious jeopardy Monday and Tuesday with temps expected to climb well into the 50s and 60s. Pacific Flow is taking a commanding lead over the usual cold winter blasts.
Actually bob, I was referring to the coverage provided by Don Postals...This is a national weather event with the potential for severe damage. It just seemed that they barely brushed on the topic. I noticed that the other evening there was a story that affected my neighborhood on Ch.2 and I changed to ch.4 because I like the coverage better and they didnt even cover it...(the story was about radioactive material going missing). The news coverage has been subpar, not the weather analysis. Its not Don's fault...its the news director's fault. Just wanted to make that clear. I was looking forward to an update or their take on the story and I got Bupkiss!
Back to Buffalo Weather...watching the GFSx/MRF says this next system is coming Thurs Afternoon. The ECMWF has it coming on Saturday. NAM looks like it heading closer to Thursday (from what I can see for Tues..Low would be just to the West of us)
So My question is, if it comes on Thurs...will it be mainly a rain event due to the warmer temps or will it usher in the colder temps, bringing us this season's patented brand of mixed precip that turns into snow?
Which model(s) are you favoring for this one? Looks to me that the GFSx and the NAM are in sync so that's a sign they might be on to something?
thanx!
:o)
Paul Kocin (not Dr.Kocin. He graduated with a meteorology degree from Cornell and a got his masters from Penn State University) was let go by The Weather Channel a few years back. For the most part, Paul was brought on ONLY during major East Coast and major city snow/wintry events. Unfortunately, it's difficult to pay a formidable salary to someone who only works DEC-MAR. If interested, I suggest the Kocin-Uccelini Northeast Snowstorms text. There are now two volumes covering the most prolific eastern snow events of the 20th century. Unfortunately, for now, you won't find Kocin on the tube, but if you search hard, you can always find a conference or two in which he is lecturing/speaking.
Thanks for the "Don" clarification. By the way, I've just returned from some travels... I'm curious, what is the story you refer to regarding "radioactive materials gone missing"? Where and when did that happen?
It's good to blog!
Bob
Don,
Could you tell me when we are gonna get some cold weather and lots of snow? I'd like to get on my snowmobile and actually ride the darn thing......
Bob...
There were two canisters that fell off of the back of a pick-up truck that was transporting them through Cheektowaga...I think it was medical waste and the "authorities" say they have recovered it and there is no threat to the community...however when the story broke on Thursday night.. they still hadnt found it. And there was no coverage of the story by WIVB until Friday. They were too busy talking about the Iowa caucuses. Ugh! I'm already sick of this election...
may have been Wed. that the story broke, WIVB covering it on Thurs...
MB,
Who is your favorite democratic candidate? Obama or Clinton or other. thanks for your great work!
Hopefully the warm weather will recharge the lakes (wink)..
I know you like LES...
I like Obama since he has a long term energy plan.
2nd to last annonymous,
Thanks for the update on Paul Kocin! He was great.. The weather channel lost me and many others when they stopped doing that detailed in depth anylsis of the winter storms.. They have OD'd on that tan balding guy.. He knows drama and thats all..
"His" name would be Jim Cantorie, and I agree with you. He's on the Weather Channel to do the whole drama thing... and over reaction etc.
MB--
What are your thoughts on the "cold snap" expected by this coming wknd?? Will it be short lived like all the others? Will it bring any snow (LES) to us? Or is this winter going to continue down the path of lameness...?
Blizzard: I am impartial to the Democratic candidates. Besides, this is a weather blog and if you want to get more on politics, you can go to our home page (WIVB.com) and click on the political section....it's really interesting stuff! On the weather home front, it will turn seasonably colder over the upcoming weekend, and today there's new evidence suggesting we may stay in a seasonably cold weather pattern going into the end of the month. In fact, things could turn interesting around toward the end of January! Lake Erie's water temp is back up to 35F today. Yahoo! Yes, I vote for LES!! :-)
Anon: Like I said in my previous post, things may get interesting around here the 4th week of January with snow and lake snow...little over 2 weeks from now, but of course, this is just a hint from models...nothing is clearly written in stone as of yet. Seasonably colder air is scheduled to arrive next weekend, but right now lake snow potential looks unimpressive. The reason: a ridge of cold high pressure building in should limit snow activity once the colder air gets here. There's a general weak disturbance that may trigger a few snow showers during the middle of the following week, but other than that, we'll have to wait awhile for big snow. Meantime, the January thaw is in full swing. Think about the dollars you'll be saving on your gas bill...that's a plus!
MB do you like snow just woundering???-Adam from Hamburg
Adam Afin: I love snow!...lots of it!!
MB,
You are so cool!!
Thanks for your kind response!
MB I guess its nice that the furnace got a few nights rest after cranking non-stop during the last cold spell...And then the sump pump has been going overtime... But at least I dont have to shovel! I actually took advantage of the mild day and had 2 windows installed. Now the cold can come on back!
How do the models look for this week? Which ones are you watching? (I know you watch "all" of them, but there are those that seem to perform better in different instances)
..How do you filter all of this model information and data for each individual system?
they are some signs right now about an artic outbreak occuring around the 20th and a storm occuring with very cold air mass behind it
stay tuned!!!!!!!!!!
Record Highs and Record warm Lows continue into tomorrow...increasingly gusty winds develop late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with convective shwrs & a few tshwrs likely, as a strong short wave will be racing by. Mixed shwrs will turn to a bit of snow with gusty winds on Wednesday. Rain may move in late Thursday night, turning to a little mixed precip or lt snow on Friday, with a gradually-getting-chillier weekend in store.
Yes, there are preliminary signs of a switch to a much more wintry pattern sometime around the 18-21. Storms can not be predicted this far in advance.
Don,
I know it's early but are there any indications as to how long this pattern change might last? Will it be permanent throughout the rest of the winter or will it fade afer a couple weeks? Thanks for all your hard work.
-John
Bring the cold on...rink finally frozen enough on friday and melting by saturday afternoon...short lived
jcaleb17,
I can't guess yet how long this pattern change around the 18-21 will last. But it's safe to say it won't be permanent (such changes seldom are), particularly in which we have a moderately strong la nina.
Lakeshadow, it's necessary to look at all the models and then interpret and interpolate the data. Weather guidance should not be used as gospel. Each model has its own merit with pluses and minuses. The GFS which takes us 16 days out is a nice "trend indicator", but as for exact timing and placement of storms, it's a no-no. Other models, such as the RUC, ECMWF, ETA, NGM, etc., have a definite place in weather forecasting.
Don, MB
Here in the snowbelt of Central Ontario, it is far from a typical January late afternoon.
As I type this, the ski hills are being cleared of people because of lightning! Some rumbles of thunder also in the mix. Pea soup fog too.
Cheers
hey don do u think the storm during next weekend track nw toward our direction because this all the storms were lake cutter and west Apps but the models are making it go further east and btw do u think the wind will reach warning critea for wednesday
hey barrie i do see thunderstorms developing around your area,,did enviromental canada issuie statements?
barrie can u give me a link for central ontario radar
Oh my god!!!!!!!!!! I just got my gas bill for last month IT was $335.00 holy crap... I love the snow, the kids and I love to go snowmobiling, but I think I'm voting for the warmer weather instead of those high bills again... Hate to see what my electric bill is going to look like.... I have heaters going too......
Patti
Patti,
Insulate Insulate and Insulate!
1)How many square feet is your house?
2)How old is your house?
3)What temp is your thermostat set to?
Sorry for the delay in getting back to you ayuud. Was busy mopping up water in garage from the thunderstorm. Our street was briefly like a lake. No where for the water to go.
Environment Canada on the web is weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca
Click on radar imagery.
Click on Toronto.
Click on Toronto again.
The radar station is in King City, halfway between Barrie and Toronto.
This gives you Ontario's so-called cottage country and Toronto.
If you go back to radar imagery and click on London twice, you get southwestern Ontario.
Great site in summer to watch a line of rowdy thunderstorms coming across Lake Huron.
Have fun scanning the Environment Canada website.
just to point out, lake erie water temp is now up another degree to 36. it will probably go up tonight and tomorrow to 37 or 38.
MC3008: I wouldn't be surprised for the Lake temp to go up another degree or two, either. And with the water temp well above freezing, lake snow potential remains alive and well for a longer than normal stretch into the winter season. The January thaw is here, but lets remember there's plenty of winter left on the calendar!
Yea... We all know that we're gonna have to pay for this 60 degrees nice weather in January! Just wait... just wait...
The lake sometimes doesn't respond to a shorterm input as much as you expect. It may go up, but it may stay steady.
Winds will probably reach Advisory criteria later Tuesday night into Wednesday, rather than a full High Wind Warning.
The cold outbreak is still showing up around January 17-20 period in the 18z GFS--still too early to tell about precip, except that outbreak appears to be "wavy" rather than totally stable. The transitions with the passage of each short wave do have a tendency to increase POPs.
thnaks barrie for those links i actually saw the storm on the radar and it was pretty impressive
what sort of an engineering feat would it take to control the temperature of Lake Erie? Are there ways to cool it or warm it up mechanically?
Imagine if we could control the temperature of the lake...just like a gigantic fish tank...
Heck, a giant filter wouldnt be a bad idea, either.
just food for thought.
Patti - Two words: Balanced Billing!
Anonymous: Although we have the technology to heat and/or cool relatively small bodies of water such as swimming pools and hockey rinks, the ability to apply such technology on such a scale as a Great Lake (of which our Erie is the smallest!) does not exist. Even if it did, the amount of energy required to operate such a system would be staggering, which would make poor Patti's gas bill look like pocket change! Don't forget the time and engineering involved in plannig and executing such a project.
Like a skating rink or swimming pool, heating/cooling elements are installed underneath the body of water to be affected. It would take a lot of digging to install that kind of plumbing under Lake Erie. It took Boston MA the better part of 20 years to dig a tunnel under the city, and they went millions upon millions of dollars over budget to finish it! Try getting *that* past one of our control boards!
Imagine the impact on marine life if the lake were frozen during the summertime so people could go ice skating in July. With radiant cooling from below, the entire depth of the lake would end up frozen, encapsulating everything in it. Likewise, consider the prospects of a longer lake effect snow season if the lake were kept warm for a longer boating season. We know what happens when we get LES in October...
A nice idea, but I'm reminded of a tv commercial when I was a kid that had the slogan, "It's not nice to fool mother nature!"
"It's not nice to fool Mother Nature"
I remember those commercials.. weren't they for WKBW's Tom Jolls Accuweather team back in the 70s?? (back when we had real winters!)
It's been bugging me all morning, so I looked it up. It was Chiffon Margarine. I didn't grow up around here, so I know it definitely wasn't Tom Jolls.
My idea was to treat the lake like a giant fish tank...not heating from the bottom but from the filtration of water...
We could kill the Zebra mussels and harmful bacteria by regulating the lake temp in the summer(through FILTRATION) and send the lake into a gradual freeze so its near frozen by late October...thereby virtually eliminating the LES beyond that...
The October storm was as bad as it was because the lake was still at 64 degrees. If we could have brought that temp down to say, 45 degrees, how less of an impact would that snowfall have been?
C'mon, UB engineers! Build us a giant fishtank filter with temperature controls!!!
As for the contol board and their inability to do anything other than collect taxpayers money...well its time for a good old fashioned town riot soon, I think. Those idiots are going to yank the collective chain of the Buffalo people for as long as we let them...
WHERE'S THE BRIDGE ALREADY!?! Between the Bass Pro Shop and the Signature span... There's nothing to show but a bunch of sissy spoiled politicians that need to spend a few nights in the stockades...we can get our money back by charging everyone $20 to kick them in the rearends.
Where can one find information on the last 10-15 years , snow falls , temps , ect, for various areas in Buffalo.
Boring winter so far... =[
Hi folks! Wow! lots of great storm tracking in the U.S. Last night and tonight.
anyways, just looked at my mercury thermometer here in s. Cheektowaga and (its in the sun) says 72 degrees?!?!?
anon:
The offical climate stats fro Buffalo can be found here, just click on what stats your looking for and they go back to 1940...
http://www.weather.gov/climate/local_data.php?wfo=buf
The only other stats they have for various towns are spotter reports back to 2002 I belive. You can find those here...
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/nws_buffalo_snowspotter_network.htm
Although you may eliminate Zebra mussels, you may also eliminate or drive away a lot of non-invasive critters who are essential to the ecology of the lake (i.e. fish), as well as their food sources (i.e. certain bacteria, underwater plant life, other fish, etc.). Granted, 100 years of pollution have taken their toll already, but a lot of that has settled to the lakebed and has become covered by sediment.
If you put the lake into a gradual freeze, everything in it would become trapped in solid ice, wouldn't it? A bit like the old fly-in-an-ice-cube gag? Again, ruining the ecology of the lake.
Like I mentioned before, consider the massive amount of energy (electric, gas, whatever) required to run such a large scale system. Where will that come from? Who will pay the bill?
I don't mean to knock your idea, I'm actually curious if it's really possible. However, I don't think it's practical or affordable, and the risks to the environment are much greater than the intended benefits.
Again, just my opinion.
Marshall,
Your posts on the lake temp control are, so far as I can discern, on the money. The technology does not currently exist to do such a thing; the energy expenditures would be unimaginable; and the results could well be disastrous.
But when spring fever hits, some of us take to flights of fancy....
ok, so tellme, why is the KBUF undergoing maitenence on a day with weather like today? Its a whole network of surrounding radars that are out, too! check this NWS message:
MESSAGE DATE: JAN 08 2008 18:19:34 THE KBUF WSR-88D WILL BE DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHILE VERIZON TECHNICIANS WORK ON THE COMMUNICATIONS CIRCUIT BETWEEN THE RDA AND RPG. SURROUNDING RADARS INCLUDE KCLE...KBGM...KTYX...AND ENVIRONMENT CANDADA KING CITY RADAR. HITCHCOCK
ok marshall how about this...cooling to just above freezing...let lake freeze naturally , but get temps down to minimize lake snows. And as far as energy...doesnt the lake dump out into what eventually becomes the largest power resource in the Northeast...ie the falls?? There are also interesting developments with solar energy and wind enrgy. Just recently hear that they are building solar panels in space and using microwave technology to beam it to the ground. This energy is supposed to be constant and much more powerful. Crazy ideas are the reason for the airplane, the lightbulb, telephone...remember...
besides I've always wondered about that and wanted to throw it out there to see if it were feasable. maybe not, maybe so. is it worth the risk of finding out? probably not.
lakeshadow,
The maintenance is a repair, and has to be done. The NWS is more aware than you are of when such repairs must be done, and when staffing is available to do them.
Anonymous--wind and solar wouldn't even scratch the surface in the vast amount of energy needed to heat or cool billions of gallons of water, nor would more reliable and powerful sources such as nuclear, hydro, and coal-fired generation.
Such a project is entirely out of our reach at this time, and should likely stay out of our reach.
yeah Global warming will take care of that...
Don Wrote: "The NWS is more aware than you are of when such repairs must be done"
Well I certainly hope so!!! LOL! But thank you for pointing that out.
The tone of your original question seemed to have a certain "how could they be so dumb?" element to it, lakeshadow.
I dunno Don, I reread it...I used the phrase a "day like today" if thats what you mean, thats just in regards to today as opposed to a nicer day with no weather concerns is all. just curious.
By the way, lakeshadow, the surrounding radars are not out. You misread the message. They're advising you those alternate radars are available at various net sites.
It's not the first time you jumped to a wrong conclusion.
I shouldn't have udes the term "nicer".. Its actually beautiful so far today. I meant with the systems to our west.
punchy today...
Anonymous - I didn't say the idea was crazy, I just feel that it's not possible to do with the technology we have, and that the risks of being able to do so would far outweigh any intended benefits.
You are correct about the power plant in NF being a major source of electricity for the northeast, but only a fraction of that power actually stays here.
I'm all in favor of alternate energy sources, and I was very disappointed to see the windmills in Lackawanna shut down temporarily due to mechanical problems.
And thanks to Don for boosting my self-esteem! :)
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