Next Winter Storm Wears Different Stripes
Late Wednesday Evening Update: There is much more uncertainty in the Friday forecast than there was for Tuesday night's high confidence forecast of a major windstorm. Super Microcast and our Future Watch models at the station favor a quick change from early morning snow on Friday to a wintry mix, and maybe even all rain in the srn tier. If those trends were to verify snow accumulations would be minor, but travel conditions in most of Friday in the AM would be quite hazardous, with a chance for sleet and freezing rain. The NWS' GFS model has a slightly colder solution, favoring a quick transfer of energy to a secondary low closer to the east coast. That would keep us in colder air longer, and bring more snow and less mixed precip. NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is going with the colder solution this evening, which brings most of WNY--except areas close to PA, with a 40% chance of 8" or greater snow and a 70% chance of more than 4". The Canadian GEM and the European seem closer to our Super Microcast and Future Watch solutions, as does the UKMET model. With the track uncertainty, I've made a preliminary estimate of 3-6" further north in our viewing area, with greater amounts in Canada and lesser amts in the srn tier.
The State College WFO has already issued a Winter Storm WATCH for our PA viewing area, calling for a mainly icy mix, and BGM also has a WATCH up to the east.
Bottom line: Low confidence on accumulations right now. Whatever snow falls is likely to be more water laden than today's drier limited lake snow.
The State College WFO has already issued a Winter Storm WATCH for our PA viewing area, calling for a mainly icy mix, and BGM also has a WATCH up to the east.
Bottom line: Low confidence on accumulations right now. Whatever snow falls is likely to be more water laden than today's drier limited lake snow.
posted by Don Paul at
10:25 PM
92 Comments:
PS: NCEP's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center shall forever more be known on this blog as the HPC, because I'm not gonna waste 10minutes of my life everytime I have to type that out--it's the HPC! Let's all agree on that, because I'm already tired tonight, folks....
Buffalo NWS has issued a Winter Storm WATCH from late Thursday night thru Friday evening, with the same uncertainty on whether or not we get heavy snow v more of a mix as I've already detailed.
Again, I don't think the impact will reach the srn tier until Friday's predawn hours, and the rest of WNY as the AM drive progresses.
Bring it on!
Hey,
Don your doing a great job as always as well as the rest of your team. I have a quick question, do you know of any colleges that are decent/good for meteorology, Brockport/Oswego ect? Being an Early graduate senior im just seeing what field i want to enter in life. Also one of my friends did a shadow day/program with you, do you still do this / would you? ok now for the weather comments I guess you could say, Now your uncertian on how this storm will play out with types of precip's but the TWC is going with Heavy snow how are they getting there info, are they expecting this thing to drift farther east? And where does TWC gets there info from? NWS?
Thanks
-Chris
Amazing weather, we have the best team here keeping us up to date! Thanks a million Channel 4 meteorologists! I have to say I love having the website you can look any hour of the day or night to see what's going down. I almost always look before I travel in winter.
I have to agree , Team Wivb handled this storm very well , Don you sound grumpy ( we relize its been a busy week, so far and doesnt look like its getting any easier , are you wishing for summer yet..
Hey Don...I was just turned onto your cool blog by Dan9125. Very cool. As a WNY business owner, I wish the media would take a less dramatic flare of the weather. I wish people would realize that it is January in WNY, and occassionaly it snows, and we get lousy weather...however, we should still be able to function...especially commerce...it should not shut the area down! Just an opinion from somebody who hates it when every freaking newscast starts out with what may possibly happen with the weather.
Now, a question...I have to be in Detroit Friday by noon. I have a flight scheduled for tomorrow morning. Should I leave today and drive, or will the planes be departing Buffalo/Niagara without problems in the morning? I look forward to your advise!
Hey Spencer....occassionally, it's necessary to hype the weather, like yesterday, which was potentially a life threatening situation with the extremely high winds, trees down, wires down, etc...I know us "weather lovers" look forward to "hyping" storms when they are forecasted, but I think yesterday was a situation where all the attention was warranted....Don, my guess is you agree?....thanks....and I'd also like to hear more about timing on this storm...when might this be possible...maybe not until the night newscasts at 10 or 11?...just wondering...
spencer,
I haven't had time to do my AM analysis yet. As of last night, Detroit looked to be under the gun for quite heavy snow tomorrow (heavier than here, with no mix). If you can't wait for another update from me, I suggest you Google "NWS Detroit" and check the NWS Zone Forecast for Detroit and Ann Arbor. Based on what little I know right now, it looks like leaving today might be better. In addition, we could have delays at our airport due to icy runways.
Other answers: snowman, Brockport and Oswego have good programs; Mary Beth and a few other locals on air and in the NWS are Brockport grads; NWS Boss Tom Niziol is an Oswego grad. A large program is found at SUNY Albany as well. As you probably know, there is no local program in meteorology (which is what amuses me about a promo for a certain localy wxguy at another station who says he's going to go for his Ph.D. In what? It's not going to be in meteorology, that's for sure!)
TWC is either broad-brushing snow without any fine detail, or they've prematurely gone w/supposed certainty on heavy snow, without communicating the UNcertainty which is in the data. If that's the case, that's not a good thing.
Spencer; I agree that there are occasions where local news has a tendency to go overboard on leading with weather, here and in every other market. This week, however, there's no doubt in my mind weather should be the lead story. It has the greatest impact on people's lives of any element in the newscast. I'm not a producer or news director, but it's likely it's going to be the lead again tonight for the next storm--and it should be.
Thanks to others for kind words.
Hey Don....I just looked at one forecast for the overnight period and into tomorrow...please comment on what you think its validity is, and if it matches up with what you forsee...
Midnight - 5am - Light to moderate snow
5am - 8 am - Heavy snow
8 am - 2 pm - Wintry mix
2 pm - 5 pm - Rain
5 pm - 8 am (saturday) snow
Thanks!!
Don--
Could this next storm end up being an ice storm for the north most counties...(N. Erie/ Niagara)? Do you think the north towns could even see a change-over to rain too? Or will it mainly be mixed precip of snow/sleet/frz. rain in the north towns? As far as snow amounts go, Im thinking the north towns and Southern Ontario in Canada will see the most. Would you agree? You folks over at WIVB just cant seem to get a break with the severe weather events... you all have done such a great job... espically compared to the other two local stations! Keep up the good work, and I hear from Mike that there could likely be yet another storm on taps for late next week! They just keep on coming!
-Sean
sean--I can't really give you a good answer to your questions right now, until I see the late afternoon NAM, so you'll have my updated fcast on News 4 this evening.
Just to let you know, there's something wrong with the weather blog. When you click on the "weather blog" icon on the home page, it does not take you to the blog like it usialy does.
That could be a reason as to why there are not many posts from people today??!
I had to click around many times to finaly get here.
Ok, now it works. Must have been doing some work on it or something. Everything is good now.
I find it funny how channel 2 is calling for mainly rain for the storm tomorrow. They say it will begin as light snow, change to rain, with a chance that the rain could mix with a little sleet at times, and then turn back to light snow in the evening.
Now Im no pro official meteorologist, but Im pretty sure the NWS doesnt issue a winter storm watch for conditions such as channel 2 expects. Channel 2 even said they dont "agree" with the NWS calling for 3-6 inches of snow for all of WNY.
On the other hand, channel 7 is going with the "snow side" of the storm, saying that there could be up to a foot of snow in the northren areas, if mixing does not take place.
Im not too sure what to think, and that is why I am going to watch channel 4 tonight and get the real story. Don, you are by far the best meteorologist on WNY TV! Keep up the good work!
yea, that Chesley guy always down plays the weather no matter what is expected! I noticed that too. the commercial he's in where he says "im working on my phd." in what?? there is no weather schools around here! keep up the good work Don and company!
Winter Storm WARNING now issued for *Pa. viewing area!
chris,
That promo is "interesting," to say the least. There is no doctoral program in meteorology in WNY. The Ph.D. in NY is offered at SUNY Albany, Cornell, and Columbia--and it can't be done "off campus."
So what's this "Ph.D." going to be about? Not meteorology.
Don..........
Can You Share With US Some Of Your Strageties That You Use When Predicting The Weather.......I Mean When A Storm Is Coming To Your Viewing Area ........What Steps Do You Take?
DOWNGRADED TO WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...
Winter weather advisory booooooooo!!!!!! Another snowstorm down the drain. Besides a handfull of windstorms this winters a bust. I dont think we will see any large snowfalls this year. The storm track just isnt favoring it at this point.
People Read Don's Topic "Communication Uncertainty To The Public"
they are alot of ucertains with this storm one way temps could go above freezing and we have rain or the temps may stay near freezing and have a significant ice storm or the gfs maybe correct with temps staying just below freezing and have a snowstorm of 8-12 inches
also one more note ...... Im Worried about Areas Of Northern Erie And Niagara Falls Because Those Areas Have A Big Chance Of Temps Just Staying Near Freezing Espessially North Buffalo To Niagara and orleans county due to the NE Flow Which Could mean an ice storm for those areas.......it only takes a 1/4 of ice with breezy winds to cause power outages
Even The NWS Is Uncertain With These Storm Thermal Profiles ..They Went With The Warmer Solution From The Nam-Wrf Models Even They Could Have Just Gone With A Heavy Snow Warning Which The Gfs Is Showing Here Is What They Said In Their Afternoon Forecast Discussion
"BASED ON THE ABOVE...HAVE CONVERTED THE EXISTING WINTER STORM
WATCHES TO ADVISORIES FOR THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WESTERN SOUTHERN
TIER...GENESEE VALLEY...AND FINGER LAKES REGIONS...WHILE HAVE GONE
WITH A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY DUE TO THE HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW/ICE EXPECTED THERE...PLEASE SEE THE
WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY SECTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS AFD FOR THE
STARTING AND ENDING TIMES OF THE VARIOUS HEADLINES. THAT SAID...IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ALL OF THESE ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT OF THE
EVOLUTION OF ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CRITICAL VALUES...PARTICULARLY
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. AS SUCH...SHOULD ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS VARY
EVEN SLIGHTLY FROM WHAT IS EXPECTED...POTENTIALLY BIG ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST MIGHT BE NEEDED WITH FUTURE PACKAGES.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&
The NAM just went from giving the BUF metro a 12+ inch snowstorm to basically a period of SN+ over to mix in just 24 hrs. At this juncture, it seems like a mix with only 3-5 is a good bet. However, look to the SW. Many areas in the Midwest have had forecasts issued by the NWS updated and re-updated numerous times today due to the uncertainty of the storm (aka..some areas are recieving much more snow or mix than thought). The end commentary...NAM and GFS have downright stunk this winter.
Anonymous: The NAM never showed 12
inches of snow, or anything close to it. You may be confusing the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast for liquid equivalent with snowfall. Unless you understand the concepts of thickness and atmospheric profiles, you can't just look at the precip numbers and get overly excited.
Right now, the GFS is the ONLY model going with a colder solution, Ayuud. That doesn't mean there's no chance of an outlying model ending up the winner, but the odds are against it.
The icing question right now is the big question. For now, heavy snow accum seems much less likely, though not impossible.
Don,
12z NAM on 1/20/08 ran on OSF snowfall algorithm was spitting out 12.2 inch of snow for BUF. IF you are going purely from the 12z NAM thicknesses (not only 1000-540 mb), which are over jealous, then yes, mostly mix.
I meant to say 1/30/08. Also, may I note that HPC snowfall outlook was going 10% for 12 in in BUF, with BUF in the "sweet spot". It was going 80% for 8 in. in BUF also.
Sorry, that's not the proper way to interpret the NAM, anonymous.
PS: When the HPC was going with those unrealistic probabilities yesterday, their outlook was based on the GFS, NOT the NAM.
I just hope this new storm doesn't become northern Niagara County's version of the October storm. Yikes!
yea i have the feeling that they may need to revise the advisory for niagara and orleans counties. we are going to stay in the cold air for most if not all of the day and there is the likelihood for 1/2 inch of ice or more. now, i think that bears more than just an advisory. thats dangerous. plus with 3-6 inches of snow, it will only make matters more complicated. im going to keep an ear to the news and other channels and weather websites to see if any changes come about. btw, will this weather get in here early enough to cancel school? or will it come more after 4 or 5 AM? or could we even be let out early? thanks!
It certainly will not reach Niag County in time to cancel school. At this point, I would expect less than 3-6" even that far north. Modeled profiles show more of a quick transition to sleet/ice pellets and then the more treacherous Freezing Rain. Still a big question on how far N & W the above freezing sfc temps will reach tomorrow.
Don, don't you think the transfer from the primary low to the coastal low will take place quicker then is forecasted. (Almost) every occurence in the last 10 years where I have seem a similar storm track. Its almost definite that the energy will transfer over fairly quickly into a extremely strong coastal low(nor easter) and keep us in the cold sector of the storm. What makes this storm system so different from those past ones? And almost all the forecasts during those past events had us getting rain and yet we stayed all snow and rarely got anything significant because of the energy trasfer. Thanks!
Don...you seem to be mostly focused on the freezing rain...are you anticipating a prolonged icing event that could bring down tree limbs and power lines?...and if so, for what areas would that be most likely?...also, does freezing rain hold off until after daybreak?...thanks for the help!!
rich,
Quite the opposite was the case with several storms this winter, including the Sunday December 15th storm--during which the primary lows stayed in the interior, with delayed secondary development.
That will be the case this time around as well, in virtually every regional and global model. That means quicker warm advection. But as I've posted, there remains a major question on how quickly that warm advection can reach the sfc, particularly north of Buffalo, when we're starting out with fairly deep arctic air in place.
storm watcher,
The best chance for prolonged freezing rain will be closer to Lk Ontario and, possibly, a few interior sheltered valleys.
thats ok as long as its coming. but still dont u think that 1/2" of ice possiblity up north could mean putting us under a winter storm or ice storm warning? thats sounds a bit intimidating if u ask me. just curious.
Ya, this year it has been quite the opposite of what I said. It seems New York City and Phili which usually get plastered by the Nor' Easters have hardly had any snow at all this year. Actually, how many Nor' easters have there been this year? Not to many at all. Is the reason for this based on the more inward storm tract riding up the appl. mountains up through us or just east of us? Does it have anything to do with the La Nina in place that makes the storm tracks different? Blocking High in the Atlantic, that pushes the storm tract more inland? Because predominantly the 1st storm weakens and the coastal 1 takes over in the past, that ive seen. Thanks Don!
Some of the best storms for the eastern Great Lakes Including Buffalo need a low to ride west of the apps before redevelopment...but with something this strong, and a relatively progressive pattern, forget about it. Congrats Montreal.
Don That Was An Email JB Send It To Me ......He Believes A Crippling Ice Storm Over Niagara County With Buffalo Having Some Mixing Issuies
Is the precip on the back side of this storm freezing rain or snow for the Northern areas? Forewarn doppler
doesn't indicate this too clearly. Should we look to later Friday night as the most likely time to lose power or sustain property damage because of the rising wind speeds
Team WIVB : I have a question for you as relates to the last few years of storms , based on some instances of storms being alot more powerful than forecasted , is it at all possible the technology that is being used to forecast these days , is not picking or even updated enough to take into consideration any POSSIBLE global warming effects if can be related to weaker or stronger than forecasted storm?
Just an example: Storm other night ,computer models , not updated or able to pick up global warming effects?
PS: Great work again , hopefully you will get some sleep in the next few days..
Hamburg 25 degress
humidity 38%
very calm..
hamburgsnowman: First of all, few storms have been more powerful than progged in recent years than in the 90s, including yesterday's--it was forecast to be a very powerful storm, and that's one main reason why we nailed the forecast.
Secondly, climatology is constantly being updated in virtually all models both from the NWS and in our private sector models.
So, I'm afraid I respectfully disagree with your premise.
One point that is being missed is the fact that due to the lack of redevelopment, the deformation band which is strengthening in Midwest, may ultimately be the big snow maker for later tomorrow. In fact, 12z NAM MOS was spitting out 8+ in. for this system, mostly AFTER the WAA snows. In general, it's a quick thump tomrw AM, mix in the afternoon, back over to a period of mdt to heavier snow which could have some lake enhancement (see latest MM5). It seems that later in the day may be the interesting aspect of the storm under the CCB WITHOUT a coastal transfer (unlike most systems that head west of the mnts).
That point isn't being missed--it's just that you're wishcasting, and not forecasting, anonymous.
You've taken a mention of a deformation zone and added some magic numbers which are simply NOT in the models and-Voila!-you have your phantom heavy snow tomorrow night. Good luck with that....
Is there a chance at all that places in N. Erie/ Niagara counties could see an ice storm? Or enough ice to cause problems... power outtages etc. Or is the chance of that happening very very slim? What are your thoughts on the weather in the N. towns Vs. the weather in the S. towns tomorrow? Thanks!!
Do the evening models show any changes, are they coming closer and closer to a similar solution?
New NAM still running....
How is Amherst looking for tomorrow?
Could we be looking at a big ice storm for N. Erie / Niagara counties? Is that a chance at all?
Don,
The 10PM microcast seemed to be less aggressive in advancing plain rain (green shade) north into metro Buffalo and points north. Is this a valid observation?
less aggressive than say the one mike showed this morning...
New NAM just a BIT colder than 18z NAM. Warm advection clearly seen in this evening's balloon soundings and reflected precip type showing in composite radars. More on this at 11 on News 4.
I also recommend the NWS' Steve McLaughlin's excellent Long Range Discussion in the late evening Area Fcast Discussion. Unfortunately for winter lovers, it reiterates what I've been posting here for weeks. Moderate to Strong La Nina will stay in place into the Spring (as per CPC analysis), and the NAO will be staying in its warmer phase for at least a couple of weeks. We will get occasional "shots" of wintry weather, and the storm track may be active as it is currently, but a prolonged period (a few weeks) of wintry weather uninterrupted is virtually out of the question in this type of setup.
So will this event mainly be rain, or will it be freezing rain... and or sleet/ snow???? What will it be for Amherst?
hello don paul
regardless what will be coming in for the next few days, we all put up with it,, it is winter remember
but coming home from lewiston today towards Youngstown about noon {jan 31st, along the robert moses parkway , we had the pleasure of seeing along the road at least 30-35 big beautiful ROBINS, in all their red breast glory,.
so spring cant be too far away/
sincerely
Mary frances
Hello Mary,
Unfortunately, an ornithologist emailed me years ago that robins in winter don't mean spring is around the corner--they're not migratory, but it is nice to see them.
January has ended up being nearly 6degrees warmer than normal, with below normal snowfall. You can give thanks to the aforementioned La Nina and positive phase NAO.
Steven--kinda chuckled about the time stamp on your question. 11:12pm. I go on the air with a detailed forecast just after 11:15.
I know we're all creatures of The Net, but I'm still a broadcast meteorologist, and I still do tv--which you're free to watch.
What a wise guy I am!
Late evening update: Temps are rising south of Buffalo thru the srn tier, PA, W VA, & Ky. The warm advection on the eastern side of this storm system is making fairly rapid progress.
With that in mind, a quick change from snow to sleet, then freezing rain is a good bet. The bulk of the precip will still be south of the metro area at the start of the AM drive, and then race north by mid morning. The question continues as to how quickly the moderating easterly flow can scour out the subfreezing sfc air and get above freezing temps to the sfc. Most models are still pretty quick with this trend, and the radars support that. However, the Niag Frontier is starting out colder than, say Pittsburgh, and sometime a slightly northeasterly component to that flow can delay the melting at the sfc. Again, the best chance for this delay is north of Buffalo, and especially closer to Lk Ontario and in Canada. Right now it looks like most of the region will go over to all rain by midday, with the possible exception of those northern locales. Wraparound snow looks SLIGHTLY more impressive than in 12z & 18z runs, so I upped it (along with support from our latest run of Super Microcast) to 2-4 inches in the evening. A brisk SWly flow sets up late evening, but temps aloft will be too warm for any true lake effect.
Does this forecast make me nervous? You betcha, as it does my friends at the NWS. Precip type with shallow cold air is among the most challenging of all forecasts in operational meteorology--MUCH tougher than forecasting the widespread wind damage and lakeshore flooding!
As of 4:56am A winter storm warning has been issued.
EDIT: 3:56am
Hey guys........how about an update for the remainder of the day?....more icing expected?....when does the changeover to rain happen?...thanks!
So Don, do you expect the lake to freeze over at all this year?
In your memory have there been comparable winters to this one, does it seem to you that we are losing those "frozen from Nov thru March" winters? Or is this just crazy weather?
thanks
Looks like a fairly serious ice storm is in progress for much of WNY, including the Buffalo area and points north and northeast. That slight NE component to the sfc winds I worried about in last evening's update is still with us. Parts of the srn tier will likely turn to just rain for awhile, especially along the L Erie shoreline, but enough ice will accumulate over northern parts of the area--possibly including the metro area--to bring down some tree limbs and powerlines. Needless to say, untreated surfaces are treacherous for pedestrians and drivers, and will stay that way. Even in those areas south of the City where a changeover to rain occurs, freezing rain will fall long enough for significant icing, except in locations like Dunkirk-Fredonia, where readings are at or above freezing. Freezing rain and any plain rain will turn to accumulating snow (2-4") by either the end of the day or early evening.
This remains an extremely tough call, since sfc temps have edged up closer to the freezing mark. The subfreezing air is EXTREMELY shallow now, and just 2 degrees more warming will turn things over to rain.
As of noon, temperatures have crept up to the freezing mark at the airport. It now appears likely that the rain falling along the L Erie shoreline communities will replace the freezing rain in the City as well, and possibly the Buffalo Stowns by early afternoon. Further to the N & E, freezing rain will persist longer, and produce ice accum of .5", which could bring down a few treelimbs--so a few spotty power outages may become more likely in the interior of WNY and especially north--by mid afternoon. Rain & Freezing Rain will turn to snow by early evening, and 2-4" accumulation is possible.
Don, Do you mean the freezing rain will turn to snow up here in Niagara county by early evening as well? I am right on Route 104 near Middleport. Great job on forecasting this one!
That's the way it looks, dw.
don are we going to be on this roller coaster of tempature or is winter finaly going to come
snoblaster, see my post further up this thread about the Long Range Outlook.
It turned to just plain rain in Cattaraugus county about 10 AM. Main roads are bare and just wet. Never did get any ice on power lines and trees, just a little bit on cars and roads. It was mostly a sleet event. A lot of melting going on now.
Thanks, trainman; that went about as forecast for your region.
very wet snow is starting to fall in Cheektowaga. There's a little ice coating on branches and powerlines.
Middleport area (eastern Niagara county) has freezing rain. About 1/4 inch of buildup on lines and branches I would estimate. Still raining, but I am beginning to see a few flakes now and then as well.
Thank you for your reply earlier Don.
The snow being seen north of Buffalo is a sign the changeover to snow may be occurring early, and cold air is deepening as the low begins to shove further east.
I should add that there's a dry pocket moving in from the south which will lessen precip rates for a while from south to north--lessing the power outage threat to some extent. Much of the snow which falls will be in what's known as a "deformation zone" in the back side of the comma cloud associated with the storm. That storm has left "disappointing" snow totals in much of ern Michigan, where heavy amounts never truly materialized. For now, I'll stick w/ the 2-4" I've had in my forecast, but I'll be updating this for News 4 at 5, after the 18z run comes in.
Has changed over to all light snow up here now. I will take that over freezing rain anytime.
Don Paul rocks my world! I love WIVB weather reports. I call 844-4444 all the time! I'm actually starting to get in trouble at my job for checking to see if they've changed the Independent Health advertisement that precedes the weather report. I always tell myself that I'm just going to listen to that and then hang up, but Don Paul's voice lulls me in, like one of Homer's Sirens.
Sometimes I lie awake at night, wondering what it is about the Channel 4 weather reports that make life so worth living. I plan on writing an epic poem on the issue before I die. And if I ever have children, I will name the first one Don and the second Paul - even if they're both girls. And I will command them to do the same, and to instruct their offspring to do likewise, and so on. And thusly, this titan of meteorology shall not die, but will live forever through my eternal admiration. Don Paul and the Channel 4 Weather Team - Thank you for being YOU!!!!
Would that be Homer J. Simpson's sirens, Josh?
Thanks for the silly, over-the-top blog. Probably if I'd had boys instead of girls, I'd have named them Frank and Buddy--for Frank Sinatra and Buddy Rich, of course! (My 2 musical heroes....most of my heroes are dead, unfortunately)
Josh, I truly do hope you have sons someday!! Why am I thinking of that old song...."A Boy named Sue"? LMAO
It seems that the NWS dropped the Winter Storm Warning. Seems a little premature, don't you think? Is it because the rest of the precipitation is going to be snow...and not much of it?
They're anticipating that what remains of this storm system for us will not meet Winter Weather Advisory (which another tv wxcaster mistakenly calls a Winter Storm Advisory--there's no such thing) or Winter Storm Warning criteria.
who's buddy rich?
Buddy Rich was the most explosive drummer who ever lived. He led modern big jazz bands, and generally blew every house down he ever played in. Simply unmatched by any drummer alive today, and most jazz drummers would agree to that.
Now, back to weather....
Don...okay, what's next?....I thought I heard at one point that we could have another wind event next Tuesday/Wednesday when the temperature transitions again from the warmth of Tuesday to the relatively cooler reading of Wednesday...any validity to this, or too early to tell?...you know us, we're like junkies in need of another fix...
Up in the snowbelt of south- central Ontario we received about 10 to 15 cm(4-6 inches) of snow. Mixture of ice pellets now. Just a routine storm for folks in ski country but it was nightmare on Elm Street and just about any other major street in Toronto!
Stormwatcher must have been reading my mind. Rain in our long range on Tuesday too followed by a drop in temperature. What is it with mild Tuesday's and wild Wednesday's lately? Too early to hazard a prediction, Don?
Thanks.
barrie1 and others: I need a little more time early this evening to do some graphics and then examine 18z runs and other global models. Last time I looked, the Tue-Wed transition looked windy, but not excessively so. Working on today's wx, however, I haven't had the time until now to spend much time looking into the extended range.
Appreciate the response. I also appreciate how busy you must be.
Away for the weekend. Thanks for your efforts and the rest of the team at CH 4 in keeping your audience in WNY(and yes, southern ontario) so well informed about these recent storms. I really like the fact you were so upfront with all of us when questioned many, many hours before Friday's storm about precip. amounts and you made it clear about the uncertainty. Better that than throwing us a few numbers willy nilly just to satisfy our demand for answers.
It has been quite a ride this week weatherwise on both sides of the border.
Have a good weekend.
Don Paul, I am humbled and deeply honored to be posting on your blog on this, the Day of the Groundhog. May your first child be a masculine child.
don corleone....
May your Groundhog be neutered and potty trained. I am honored that you are honored, and may I remind you not to eat an orange in the garden with a small boy around, my friend....
Don Paulione
time for a new thread!
NWS tells me a Lewiston spotter reports 4" accum. Virtually no spotters have reported this evening, but that's certainly the highest total in this wraparound snow.
We only have about 2.5-3 inches here in Amherst. Its still snowing, but its wet out... the ice is melting off the trees, and its only 33.1 degrees out.
A wet gloppy snow is falling in Orchard Park, where we have a slushy accumulation of an inch. It is still snowing, and the wind has picked up.
-Matt
DW, I truly wish I could. But alas, my wife of 17 years has left me. She says that I spend too much time watching Channel 4 weather reports on an infinite TiVo loop. She just didn't understand me. So it goes...