Pattern Change Will Mean Business
After a still quite cold Thursday, Pacific air will come rushing in to replace the Arctic Air which arrived late New Year's Day. Friday's moderating temperatures will be accompanied by a Gusty SW wind of 20-30+ mph, so there will still be a significant wind chill. On Saturday, a SSW breeze will boost temps into at least the upper 30's and a weak disturbance may bring a few light rain showers in the afternoon and/or evening. The warmup will strengthen on Sunday, and even moreso on Mon-Wed, with near record warmth possible. Not that much sunshine is likely with this warming, which will be driven mainly by a downslope/southerly flow. Rain will move in around Wednesday night, and may turn to a little snow on Thursday as a chillier (but not terribly cold regime) returns for a few days.
There are signs that around the 15th, we may undergo another pattern change to colder weather with a possible longwave trough of low pressure extending from Hudson Bay down into the central and ern U.S. There are signs that the NAO may be heading toward a Negative/Cold Phase, and the PNA/Pacific Ridge may become positive over wrn North America at around that time. As of today (Wednesday), they are ONLY signs of this shift, and nothing is carved in stone as a few bloggers have claimed on the previous thread. We'll want to see several more model runs confirm this trend before we begin to jump on it.
A few of you just don't want to get it about UNCERTAINTY (my uncertainty thread is still up and available for reading), but that's allowed on a blog. For those of you still in high school considering a science major when you get to college, I strongly urge you to begin thinking in those terms, or you're going to run into lots of trouble with your future professors.
There are signs that around the 15th, we may undergo another pattern change to colder weather with a possible longwave trough of low pressure extending from Hudson Bay down into the central and ern U.S. There are signs that the NAO may be heading toward a Negative/Cold Phase, and the PNA/Pacific Ridge may become positive over wrn North America at around that time. As of today (Wednesday), they are ONLY signs of this shift, and nothing is carved in stone as a few bloggers have claimed on the previous thread. We'll want to see several more model runs confirm this trend before we begin to jump on it.
A few of you just don't want to get it about UNCERTAINTY (my uncertainty thread is still up and available for reading), but that's allowed on a blog. For those of you still in high school considering a science major when you get to college, I strongly urge you to begin thinking in those terms, or you're going to run into lots of trouble with your future professors.
posted by Don Paul at
9:49 PM
35 Comments:
This winter, like the past few has been somewhat mild so far... not much snow or ice, not too many storms... and I’m comparing the past few winters with winters we've had 5-6 years ago. Those winters 5-6 years ago we're the winters that Buffalo is known for. We had snow storms where we would get 3-4 feet of snow in a one to two day period. Besides the October storm we had last fall... we really have not had much in the way of snow... or big winter storms in that matter. As each winter goes by, we WNY'ers look back and say... "oh next winter will be a bad one, because the past few have been so lame for Buffalo standards." I, along with many other people have noticed the drastic change in our winters, and I cant help but think of "global warming"... and the possibility that we may just be in a long time period of warmer than average winters AND summers. This past summer was one of the warmest and driest in the past 20+ years. Things have defiantly changed around here weather wise... Its not like it used to be. I can only think that no matter what happens "weather wise" we will go from one extreme to the other. Our mild winter we're experiencing so far could all of the sudden get even warmer, like it is supposed to next week... or it could get very cold. Living in Buffalo my whole life, I’ve come to learn that we don’t often get the "in between" weather, meaning nice, calm, standard, easy etc. I’m thinking that this coming summer is going to be much warmer than Buffalo standards... but in the long run, the weather we've had the past few years, and are having now may become the new "standard/ norm" for Buffalo-WNY. We'll just have to wait and see what happens...
Sean,
Actually, December was somewhat colder and snowier than normal for Buffalo. Our seasonal snowfall is only about 1.5" below normal as of today. Still, with a moderately strong La Nina remaining in place, we still face good odds of a milder than average winter when all is said and done.
I have no clue how next summer will turn out.
The La Nina and the placement of the Jet Stream are two factors this winter that seem to take a toll on the number of heavy snowfalls in the area this past winter. We've gotten storm after storm but the jet stream has been carrying them away from us, where as I remember the jet stream typically would bring the clippers right to our door.
La Nina keeps that warm pacific westerly flow of air that keeps the storms warmer and more south. These bring us the mixed precip rather than full-out snow storms. Even though the lakes arent frozen we lack the conditions that bring the truely cold air in the right direction over the lakes to give us that famed Buffalo snow. It seems the SW winds have been warmer, too warm for snow and I attribute that to La Nina.
What confuses me about this La Nina is that earlier in the fall, it was supposed to create favorable conditions for tropical cyclones to form over the Atlantic this past hurricane season and the wind shear (that La nina was supposed to moderate) ripped almost every storm apart. Hence a normal season rather than the more active one that was forecasted. So La nina can be unpredictable. Some climatologists are also figuring in the colder airmasses over the North pole from melting polar ice that has created this stronger polar flow of air. (true affects of GW) This pushes the jet stream more south, bringing us the wonderful cold days like today. Between la Nina and the polar vortex, we seem to be in a rollercoaster ride as far as temperatures are concerned. I'm nervous about the storms that the spring will bring us one La nina calms down and the jet stream is once again over our heads, or teetering just South or North.
Don:
What are you thoughts on Global Warming? Do you believe the hype that it is "man made" emissions causing the problem, or do you think it is a normal "ebb and flow" of our planet?
Thanks!
He responded to a similar question I asked a while back in another thread. It was an interesting discussion. I think it's something that we all should be thinking about, now that crude oil is flirting with a $100/barrel price tag. I think the president's timetable on increasing fuel efficiency should be much shorter, considering we already have the technology. It just needs to be made more affordable, in my opinion.
The fact of the matter is this, fossil fuel is a non-renewable resource of which we are running out. Less supply + more demand = $100 a barrel for light, sweet crude oil. These prices will only fall if demand decreases.
This has NOTHING to do with the fact that the polar ice sheet is growing smaller with each passing summer. Infact, decreasing our carbon emmisions may not effect the rate at which the polar ice melts (actually more concerned with the Greenland ice sheet which is shrinking but not as much as the polar cap). We may not be able to do anything but adapt, as Darwin has illustrated is the essence of survival and evolution. The globe seems to be warming now, and perhaps our activities as humans contribute, but it takes just one large volcano or asteroid to send us into a nuclear winter or an ice age, thus reversing the warming trend. All in all the earth is an ever-evolving organism. We will forever be trying to understand all of the factors within the natural world that bring us to the present and future physical conditions of this planet.
The price of a barrel of oil, I will grant you, does not cause the deterioration of our environment, but our willingness to pay whatever that price may be definitely reflects our demand for it. In turn, our high demand is based on how dependent we are upon it. Our use of it contributes to current climate changes we are witnessing, in my opinion.
My point, which I probably could have stated more clearly, was that we need to pursue alternate forms of energy that may help reduce damage we are doing to the planet. That ball's already rolling, but maybe we can slow it down a little. I feel we have some of the technology already, and we should act more quickly to make it widely available. There are things that happen on this planet and in our universe that are much larger than us, and over which we have no control. However, that does not excuse us from trying to control the things we can.
Just my opinion.
I'll agree with the notion that winters don't seem like they use to be, but I've only lived through 22 winters to get that feel. The past few winters have had a lot of snow but we seem to get more warmups then in the past. I remember as a kid in the early 90's it snowed by late Novemember and that snow was there right through March unless you had a big thaw. Lately it seems we get a shot of snow then the warmup heads in, no long term artic air can hold over us anymore. Is it global warming? Who knows for sure, but you've got to remember weather happens in cycles and patterns.
To a few people I have read saying we don't get as much snow as we use to... a good site to check out is the NWS Climate Page. Here is a link to the annual snowfalls dating back to 1940:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/climate/buf_snow00s.php
While 67 years is only a snapshot of what the snow climate in this area has been like forever it shows that even in a short period of time we go through dramatic trends is the snowfall we see. For example...
In the late 1940's we had back to back winters that only gave us 40 inches of snow (our two lowest season snowfall total).
From 1950 - 1962 we had 7 straight years of annual snowfall over 100 inches. Followed by 7 straight season of snowfall only ranging from 70-80 inches.
In 1977-1978 we had back to back big years which gave us our 1st and 3rd highest annual snowfalls.
From 2000 - 2005 we went through 5 straight years of over 100 inches of snowfall including 2000 and 2001 back to back years with the 2nd and 5th highest annual snowfall totals.
Just looking at the roller coaster you cna see were due for a period of less then or near average snowfall. Give it a few seasons and you know we will be due to get it again.
The Weather Channel up for sale: report
Thu Jan 3, 1:57 AM ET
U.S. cable channel The Weather Channel is to be put up for sale and could fetch more than $5 billion, The New York Times said in an online report on Thursday, quoting people briefed on the auction.
Media companies such as NBC, a unit of General Electric Co., News Corp., and Comcast Corp are interested in The Weather Channel and its popular Web site, weather.com, the report said.
A representative for the company, a privately owned cable channel, was not immediately available for comment.
The report quoted sources as saying the sale was part of a break-up of the Weather Channel's parent, Landmark Communications, a privately held company based in Norfolk, Virginia, that owns community newspapers and other media assets.
JPMorgan Chase is advising Landmark on the sale of The Weather Channel, while Lehman Brothers is advisor on the sale of its other media assets, it said.
NY Times
c'mon don buy it please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I agree with Marshall that we need to all take a part in reducing our impact on the planet, with an understanding that climatology is still in many ways a mystery and that humans cannot stop climate change simply by stopping the burning of fossil fuels.
Infact, the impact that humans have on the world and our natural resources, I think is more predominent in the waste that we create, the water that we pollute and the trees that we cut down. The gas is going to run out. Soon we wont have any choice but to use something else. But human consumption and waste are what I think we have real control over. Especially in a capitalist nation where consumerism is necessary for economic growth, we have the responsibility to be picky consumers. Buy gas thats refined in the USA if you have to buy gas. Why? because the EPA makes sure that the waste is properly disposed of. Purchase items made in the USA..that way there's no shipping energy used over the oceans (also a big contributer to oceanic pollution). Recycle, reuse, restore...if something breaks...fix it, dont go buy a new one. Controlling our consumption will help us in other ways, too..
It will give Americans more manufacturing jobs, help us all shed a few pounds, our seafood will be less contaminated with mercury and other heavy metals, And we will all save money!!! Those are real things that we can all do now in order to help to restore our environment.
an afterthought...
(In a hundred years, fresh water will be the rare commodity...we have to protect our lakes!)
one more thing..anyone want to track a really big storm with blizzard warnings and the whole lot, there's going to be a great show on the west coast.
Here's a url to a blog posted by director of meteorolgy at the weather underground, Dr. Jeff Masters. (since this is a Buffalo weather blog, y'all may not want to hear about California..)
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/
JeffMasters/show.html
*yes Don..this is my "detatched" grapevine...
Don
As changing technology requires many of us in our jobs to constantly upgrade our skills and adapt to the changes, I imagine you have seen many dramatic changes in the way computers, weather instruments and your skills have come together to develop a forecast. And I don't mean to age you! What was new today can sometimes be old tomorrow!
Are there certain meteorological conferences you or others on the Ch 4 weather team attend annually to learn more about new technologies or if only to interact with your colleagues?
With the new technology I have seen you add as part of your forecasts, it seems change in your line of work is never-ending.
Thanks for any insight.
barrie1...In order to renew and keep the American Meteorological Seal of Approval, continuing education requirements have finally been put in place--as in many other professions. And that's the way it should be, because not keeping up in any science can make a practicioner a hazard to his clients (or, in our case, our audience). Those who fail to meet these reasonable standards are going to have those Seals yanked by the Society within a few years.
There are conferences which can be attended (i.e., I have attended every AMS Broadcast Meteorology conference since 1985, and completed an additional Short Course each year prior to that conference, with full support from WIVB.) The greatest recent breakthrough for all private sector meteorologists has been a program with the acronym COMET, sponsored by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research-UCAR-which, in turn, has support from many universities and NOAA. This enables all of us, including the many mets who can't attend the AMS Conference, to go through learning modules online. These modules are generally taught by the top experts in the subject matter, who could never be gathered on one campus or at one conference. They're very complex and are designed for degreed meteorologists. An exam must be taken and passed in order to receive continuing education credit. The NWS has long required continuing education for all of its mets, and now the private (including broadcast) sector is going to try and catch up--because it's been voluntary for us until now.
The same need for continuing ed is part and parcel of all sciences (and professions like law). Fortunately, our medical doctors who wish to receive and retain Board Certification in their specialties must take regular rigorous exams. For my money, that's where continuing ed may count most of all. I think the AMS lagged for some time in developing these standards, but I'm glad they're finally here (even if meeting them sometimes seems like a "pain in the butt!") Education doesn't guarantee you'll be a better weathercaster or grow in popularity. It merely provides a foundation of knowledge in which you can provide your audience with more reliable weather information, particularly during severe weather and other weather emergencies.
Thanks for the response.
Appreciate this blog as a place to chat, share ideas and learn.
Have a good night.
cesna and others on the global warming question: We did touch on this subject during the first week of this blog, and that's about all I can do right now.
That global warming is occurring is indisputable. The biggest controversy lies in how much mankind is contributing to this warming, if at all.
The overwhelming majority of researchers in atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, climatology,
and meteorology in academia are convinced anthropogenic (human induced) activity plays a large role in this round of warming. Those who point to many past warmings prior to the industrial revolution have a point, but this round of warming appears to be occurring at a time in which the earth would normally have been heading into a cooler period. The higher levels of CO2 and methane appear to have tipped the balance to some extent, and the warming does seem to parallel what had been predicted in earlier climate change models.
However, those who claim the debate is over (few who make that claim are legitimate scientists) are mistaken, and much more needs to learned about changes in the earth's solar energy budget which may also play a limited role. The debate about how much responsibility we have and how much can be done will go on. The most discouraging element in doing anything about is the enormous economic growth now being seen in China, India, and some nations like Brazil. Demand for petroleum has nowhere to go but up until cost-effective alternatives are developed. China currently has more than 500 coal-fired power plants planned for construction over this decade, and India has more than 200 such plants planned. Bringing CO2 emissions down seems to be getting out of reach.
My own view is that anthropogenic activities do play a role in this period of warming. But I do feel some of the so-called certainty that we're responsible for most of it may be overstated, based on what we know.
Marshall and others articulately stated why it would be smart for us to accelerate alternative fuel development and practice conservation, since virtually nothing bad could come from this even if the expert IPCC panel were to turn out to be wrong, down the road.
I'm sure we'll all have more to say on this topic in the coming days and months, but right now I've got to get back to work.
hey don this is Alex what do u think of buying the weather channel it is only 5 billion and i heard u make more than that
what do u say?
Alex.....>>>>>>
i think that is great idea i heard it on the news about the weather channel sell i wish if i had 5 billion i would buy it and made my own show but i think Don can pay it .........
don't u Don?
hey folks! chiming in with a few great articles from the AP.
One on the balance between man and nature in the global warming front. here's a url:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/
20080103/D8TUMIE00.html
And other story on the projections for the warmest year ever in 2008:
http://apnews.excite.com/article/
20080103/D8TUMLIG0.html
woow there is a significant wind chill out here in west side
brrr!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Back to more nearterm matters: The indicators for a switch to a Negative/Cold NAO are not showing up in today's NAO guidance as they were yesterday--which is why I emphasized the uncertainty again yesterday.
The PNA, however, does show a trend toward a more positive index around mid-January.
In the interim, the GFS model for the last couple of runs is showing a fairly deep cyclone moving up to the NE close to us by Saturday next weekend, which might bring a potential for rain or rain changing to snow ahead of an unevenly more wintry pattern following that system's passage by the 13th or 14th.
As per usual, the caveat: the GFS lacks the resolution to make a detailed forecast 9 days in advance. We'll see how the next several model runs look, along with the European and the Canadian GEM runs.
the super mirocast u guys use is the best model
Here are my dumb questions of the week:
When they show you guys sitting at the weather desk during a broadcast, are those monitors behind you just for show, or is that your actual work area?
Are your weather maps done on blue screen or green? As a former video student, I'm curious. I didn't stick it out long enough to get into the chroma key stuff, but it crosses my mind when (depending on what colors you guys wear on-camera) someone's arm starts to disappear over the Delmarva Peninsula.
marshall...I think they use a green screen because I remember Don had a green tie on for St. pat's day once and his tie had the graphics on it.
Marshall,
All of the monitors in our weather center are functional--none for show. It's our general work area, although we also have an office with desks and computers for doing online work and correspondence.
Hey folks! Hope everyones doing fine.
just wanted to let all the youngins know what a blizzard is really like...there's an impressive on happening on the w. coast and the NWS forecast discussion is most impressive. here's a snippet:
AS FAR AS THE SIERRA...WIDESPREAD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
LATE MORNING. WHILE SNOW LEVELS WILL BRIEFLY RISE THIS MORNING TO
NEAR 6500 TO 7000 FEET...THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION RATES WILL
QUICKLY BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN STARTING AROUND NOON. EXTREMELY
HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH OR MORE WILL MAKE ANY
TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AND LIFE
THREATENING. IN ADDITION...RIDGE
GUSTS OF UP TO 200 MPH WILL OCCUR. AS DAY SHIFT MENTIONED...
SNOWFALL RATES OF 6 INCHES PER HOUR ARE LIKELY FOR A FEW
HOURS...AND MAY EVEN BE HEAVIER AT
TIMES. TOTAL SNOW IN THE SIERRA
WILL BE SEVERAL FEET...
This is a very powerful cyclone. To track this storm with me check out the url that I provided in a previous post.
The NWS used to have a 2 tiered blizzard designation. A Blizzard Warning meant 1/4 mi or less vis in snow or blowing snow w/sustained winds of 35mph, and a Severe Blizzard Warning was for sustained winds of 50mph.
When I worked in Wichita, we used to get all the statements out of the Cheyenne, WY forecast office. During a Severe Blizzard Warning, they had formatted into the text: "To become lost in a storm of this magnitude is to invite certain death."
On the empty high plains with virtually no landmarks and few houses, that was not an overstatement.
The complexion of next weekend is already changing from what I posted last night, which justifies the cautionary note I threw in. Beyond late next week, forecast details are of a very low confidence level. The track for a storm coming out of the south has shifted considerably south and east of yesterday's runs. The colder pattern which returns around the 13th-15th does not appear to be a stable one, or a truly fundamental pattern shift. Of course, the tendency for our cold weather to occur in snaps rather than longer lasting waves is tied to the moderately strong la nina in place.
Don did you see this IR loop?
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/sate
llite/animateweb_e.html?
imagetype=satellite&imagename=goes_
wnam_1070
_s_..................jpg&nbimages=1
&clf=1
Now THATs a WHOPPER!!!
:o)
Last Pacific Surface Analysis I saw has this as a 956mb low, which is extraordinarily deep. (About 28.20" of mercury).
http://coolwx.com/usstats/presstats
.php
US pressure stats...
Extreme highs and extreme lows.
This is Amazing.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/w
cwv.html
Watervapor loop.
Awesome!
QuikSCAT snapshot:
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov
/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas37.png
unusually quiet here for such a historic storm affecting millions of miles out west.
Here's some stats that'll rattle some of you...
In the last 42 hours since midnight Wednesday, of the 42 hourly observations, Ward Mountain has had:
sustained above 40 mph (gale force) - 37 of 42
sustained above 60 mph (storm force) - 25 of 42
sustained above 74 mph (hurricane force) - 9 of 42
sustained above 95 mph (Cat 2 force) - 3 of 42 (assuming 99 mph on the 6999 reading)
gusts above 74 mph (hurricane force) - 34 of 42
gusts above 95 mph (Cat 2 force) - 19 of 42
gusts above 110 mph (Cat 3 force) - 12 of 42 (incl. 11 straight hours!)
gusts above 130 mph (Cat 4 force) - 5 of 42 (incl. 4 straight hours!)
gusts above 155 mph (Cat 5 force) - 3 of 42
Although weather streets are indeed an interesting phenomenon..it seems that your next blog would have been about this storm. It is going to reap quite a fall-out. I anticipate alot of damage and flooding.
cloud streets, not weather streets! ;0P
Don, 1.2 MILLION people are out of power!!!
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