Point of Concern Late Thursday Night/Update
There are at least a few hints that all the models, both NWS and, to a lesser extent, our Super Microcast may be underplaying Friday's lake effect snow potential a bit. As of late tonight, radar returns from western Michigan are showing multiple but well organized bands of lake snow behind the cold front--more than had been indicated by the NAM/WRF or the coarser GFS. It's true that the cold air over Wisconsin and Lk Michigan is deeper and colder than it will be when it arrives here, but this better organization tells me there is at least the chance our lake snow from near the metro area out toward Batavia may be better organized than previously advertised. The other problem is that any accumulations at all during the midday/PM Friday period will be carried by 20-35 mph winds, with some gusts possibly to 45--which could produce whiteouts, especially on N/S roads. I threw this scenario in on News 4 at 11, and I hoped it reached enough people--in addition to wivb.com and Channel 4 Weatherline--to prepare them for this possibility.
posted by Don Paul at
11:37 PM
53 Comments:
Don, I know it is an early call, but with the winds backing later Monday are any of the models showing the set up for lake snow closer to the city of Buffalo?
Don...
I watched the 11pm news cast, and I could see that you were starting to get a little worried about tomorrows LES. It does look well organized up-wind of us, however, I did not know that it wasnt supposed to be as intense as it is up there right now! That is a good indicator of what might be to come here later Friday! What are your new updated snowfall amounts if we do in fact get a bit more LES than expected? AND is the LES band (if it forms) still supposed to shift north later Friday night?? Will it affect Amherst at all?? ThAnKs!!
Don-
Could Amherst see any of this LES? If so... how much?
-Bill from Amherst
Don, I remember you saying that if this LES band does form Fri afternoon/ night, it will be close to Buffalo over to Batavia. Now, I also remember you saying that this band would shift north overnight into Sat morning. If this happens, it would bring snow to places such as Amherst, Clarence, and Pendleton. Is the band still supposed to shift north if it forms?
Ohhhh noooooo! Is this LES event, that we thought would be minor, all of the sudden looking as if it could give us a run for our money?! Hahaha! Its so unpredictable, I love it! Bring on the snow!
So we looked up-wind of the lakes and saw something we didnt expect to see, or at least it was more than we thought... LES! What do todays model runs show? Are we going to get lots o' snow, or is it just going to be minor? What a nice little suprise I had watching you on the 11pm news cast get all up in arms because of the LES upwind of us... I hope we get blasted. Now that I said that, we probaly wont, but I hope we doooo! Kep up the good work Don!!
Just to let everyone know, *unexpected* winter storm watches have been issued for areas west of Lake Michigan. According to three of the local news web sites up there, the watches were not at all expected, however “anything is possible with lake effect snow” as stated on one of the news sites. They were originally expecting anywhere from 2-6 inches of snow at the most. “LES bands have become better organized than originally thought, and will strengthen from time to time” as stated on one of the sites. Makes you wonder what’s in store for us later today and tonight! All I can say is just be prepared, it can’t hurt.
This is crazy weather! Its 2:40am, and its raining at a pretty good clip in Clarence. I didnt think it was supposed to rain, I heard snow... at least thats what I thought it was supposed to do. Its 36.7 degrees, a bit windy out, and I dont see the temp falling all to much. Who knows what tomorrow will bring lol.
There are no winter storm watches in lower Michigan, if that's what steve is suggesting, but there are snow advisories for a second frontal passage--rather than lake effect.
Last night's lake snow in wrn Michigan is gone, owing to the very dry air moving in from behind the front, as originally noted. When I said I was concerned about this upstream snow, pls note I said the models may be underestimating the lake snow potential "a bit." Not "a lot." No one is going to get "blasted" today. The air will still be too dry, despite the favorable fetch over Lk Erie. There will probably be a little lake snow developing this morning, and with any accumulation whatsover these strong winds (a Wind Advisory is in effect), that will cause blowing snow.
Sorry if I got people overly excited....
Thanks for the upate Don. Nice imatation of Bill Clinton too! :)
hey Don the 06z NAM has the Lake Effect stay Near Buffalo from sunday Afternoon to at least sunday morning but the gfs Has the band quickly move to the south As the Winds Back up to NW
So is there any chance the wind may stay WSW little bit longer or the Nam is an outlier
I think you misread the NAM. In any case, the 12z doesn't have the boundary layer flow anywhere near Buffalo after Saturday morning through Sunday.
Some good news for skier and resort operators, though. The flow looks a little more westerly for Sat nite-Sunday, rather than WNWly, and that will likely make the LES better organized for the slopes!
Don,
I live in North Boston. I woke up at 5:30 To slip and fall in my driveway. It was sheer ice. The 219 Was terrible causing an accident around 5:30am.
Don, you wrote "Sorry if I got people overly excited...."
We'd rather be overly excited and have you error on the side of caution, than not error as we get dumped on, thus, we'll get overly excited on how you blew it!
LOL
Don, Each night when you do your forecast on the 6 o'clock news you show the western NY map, there is a brown spot on the map near Elba , what is that?
I honestly don't know what some of the markings on those maps are. They are LANDSAT-type high resolution satellite photos, but they don't come with identifiers for geographical features.
Don,
How do the winds and moisture content look for lake effect later in the week. I know it's a long way out to be predicting LES but it's supposed to stay relatively cold so I was wondering if we may get hit again later in the week.
Some general snow on Tuesday (not likely to be heavy), and maybe some bits 'n pieces of lake snow both Monday and Wednesday, ahead of another colder surge for Thursday.
No signs right now of a huge LES potential.
just to mention. So. erie, wyoming, chataqua, and cattargus to go under lake effect snow watch at 4pm. The NWS said so.
Hey Don and anyone.LAKE EFFECT SNOW WHACH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN ERIE, WYOMING, CHAUTAUQUA, AND CATTARAUGUS COUTIES FROM SATURDAY AFTORNOON THOUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. Don i know this is early but do you think the southtowns is included please give it your best shot please.THANK YOU. Adam from Hamburg
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH....
FROM LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS COULD EASILY TOTAL OVER A FOOT.
A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH MEANS THAT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
Mostly a Ski Co/Srn Tier event, below the Stowns, though there may be a period of lake snow early Saturday AM which would include the Stowns (too short a residence time to add up to much).
don
what do u consider north collins? southtownes or southern erie or ski county, we are only 6 miles north of the cattaragus county line. thank
Don not to say anything but wben said skicountry and the southtowns.Adam from Hamburg
North Collins is in srn Erie County, part of what we call Ski Country.
I suspect WBEN's AccuWx met said that because he doesn't know our local geography (he's in State College, PA). Other veteran AccuWx met like Joe Sobel and Eliot Abrams are more familiar with the lay of the land around here.
Once again... the north towns miss out on all the snow!!! What ever happened to the LES band that was supposed to se up "near Buffalo" today? What ever happened to the "general snowfall" we're supposed to get on Saturday? Remember saying that the LES band that is supposed to set up later tonight was supposed to form right over the city and points northward? We were supposed to get up to 2-4 inches of snow tonight (Buffalo northward). Wow! Things have changed! We'll be lucky if we see a snowflake here in Amherst lol!
sup don
can u tell me more about the MJO Phase
And Btw i was looking for hurricane katrina news and i found this
"Super MicroCast pinpoints Katrina landfall 72 hours in advance "
is that the super microcast that u guys use so if that was the super microcast it shows how great this Microcast be Even this year it did outstanding job in Precip type and the track of storms
here is what the news was about the super microcast predicting the huricane katrina landfall
"When Hurricane Dennis reached landfall in the Florida Panhandle July 10th, it was not too surprising a development. Weather Central Inc., a Madison-based provider of broadcast weather solutions had already forecast almost the exact location two days earlier.
On Friday, July 8, Weather Central's Super MicroCast forecast model, a service used by more than 100 television stations throughout the country, showed Hurricane Dennis making landfall on Sunday, July 10, at 3:30pm EDT at Navarre, Florida. Actual landfall occurred on Santa Rosa Island on Sunday at 3:25pm EDT, just two miles west of the forecast location and five minutes earlier than the model predicted.
By contrast, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting at the same time a much more generalized landfall area somewhere between Biloxi, Miss., and Panama City, Fla."
hey don actually that was hurricane Dennis this was the news about katrina
"Weather Central Inc., provider of state-of-the-art broadcast weather solutions, today announced that its proprietary Super MicroCast hyper-local forecast model accurately predicted Hurricane Katrina’s landfall within five minutes and one mile of the actual event. In July, Super MicroCast predicted landfall of Hurricane Dennis with similar precision.
On Friday, August 26, 2005, the Super MicroCast model showed Hurricane Katrina moving to the west through the Gulf of Mexico for a much longer period of time than was being forecast at that time by the National Hurricane Center. The August 26 Super MicroCast forecast predicted landfall on Monday, August 29, at 6:05 a.m. CDT near Triumph, La. The actual landfall occurred at 6:10 a.m. near Triumph, La., within one mile of the predicted location and within five minutes of what Super MicroCast had predicted. Super MicroCast also captured the immense size of Katrina’s hurricane-force wind swath and the rapid intensification that occurred early on Sunday, August 28"
Maria,
I suppose it's mets like me who have caused some folks like you to have unrealistic expectations. First of all, there was weak lake snow just south of Buffalo much of the late AM-mid afternoon. Do you have any idea how small the changes in the forecast over a 24 hour period have actually been, when we're dealing with a phenomenon which will only be about 10 miles wide at most?
The type of forecasting we do today is so much more precise (less vague) than what was being done just 10-15 years ago that I sometimes regret not being more vague. Then, my derierre is more safely covered. But we will continue to attempt to be as precise as possible, because our computer models allow us to try to narrow things down on a scientific basis, even if it doesn't always work.
But I have to tell you: if you think in this kind of pattern that nothing in the forecast should change from one day to the next for what is almost a microscale event, you're never going to be happy with meteorologists--WeatherWatch 4 or the NWS. It just doens't work that way, Maria.
Ayuud,
Kinda busy. You can look up the MJO on the Climate Prediction Ctr site, though it's going to be mighty technical for someone at your level.
don i think u are right i didnt understand anything from the mjo it only showed it was in phase 7 and it is enhancing Australia rainfall and One Last Question what is the CFS MODEL i was looking at it today and it goes to like October 2008
Don,
I know North Boston Is in southern erie but is the lake snows going to have some residence time over us or is it going to move south towards boston/springville. Thanks
Last anonymous: You'll get some of it, but it's nearly impossible to make that close a call. The band should oscillate slightly from time to time between Saturday afternoon and late Sunday night.
Ayuud,
Put CFS in the search box on the website, and you'll get a description.
I don't want to be accused of discouraging an intellectual pursuit. But Ayuud, you're trying to skip around into advanced topics when you don't have the fundamental education needed to understand them. Science doesn't work that way, otherwise we'd just have on-the-job training and skip formal college courses.
You're going to have to mature a little and learn to have patience. I think someday you will be ready to tackle complex subjects like the MJO. But that day has not arrived. You need a background in physics and higher math to begin to delve into some of these topics and, particularly, need to understand the Laws of Thermodynamics. Why don't you start with a Google search on thermodynamics, and see if you can begin to tackle that subject. Virtually everything in our world is affected by them, including weather (and even dieting--burning calories!).
DOn,
Matt from Yorkshire/Arcade.. What is your thinking for my area.. Seems as though i could be dead center but i know bands sometimes like to creep just a mile or two south of my area..
What is your thinking atm(at this moment)
redog26:
See previous answer to Last Anonymous--exact same words apply!
Yee Haaa , maybe a few speckles of snow this weekend in Hamburg..Kids wanna go sledding.
Thank you Don and team wivvb weather for all your replies , great work..
the cold will be gone for the begining of february most respected meterologist say so. We will only probably see a dusting to maybe 3 inches of snow max. that is the city north. during the cold period. forget about LES not going to happen for city north. if local news predicts it it won't happen just like today and saturday that was suppose to be north and is not going to be south and we will only see a dusting as usual. It's classic Buffalo. It doesn't snow here any more. Ever since the blizzard of 77 winters here have been lame.
Yes, anonymous. They've all been lame; the Blizzard of 85, the Blizzard of 93, the Dec 10, 1995 37inch 24 hour max at the airport, the Millenium storm of Nov 2000, the 82" in 4 days of Dec 2001, the October surprise--just to name a small fraction of exceptions to Anonymous' Rules of WNY Climatology.
Yes, winters have been generally warmer & shorter and this is likely tied to global warming to some extent. But the Fat Lady hasn't sung yet on WNY winters, anonymous....
Don,
One event doen't not make for a good winter thought I will agree that those all were good events but the rest of winter those years were lame. Also why is it that back in the 80's when we would have a warm winter there was nothing said about el nino and la nina causing it now it seems like that every year you guys are either blaming el nino la nina or global warming on why the weather is not this way or that way. Finally we will have a -nao from the last week of feb all the way probably til june that has how it has been for the last few years and thus making spring be winter instead of spring.
my god, you guys blame don and the weather people for not producing snow, seriously if you are this upset about not getting snow you are lucky that is your biggest problem in life...i have never seen people so upset over not getting snow...
Anonymous--el nino and la nina were mentioned frequently during the 80s, particularly in the meteorological community. The NEWS media didn't mention them as much because they weren't familiar with the phrases, and global warming was somewhat less certain then as an actual phenomenon. By the way, the NAO never stays in a single phase for an entire season.
You sound depressed about all this. My advice: Watch some Simpsons reruns!
About 9:18PM Friday, observed from Sanborn, NY, there is a huge ring around the moon. Awesome sight.
Charlie in Sanborn
Someones been working on the main WIVB homepage on the "storm links" section. It changes every time I go to wivb.com. The format/ blue color of the storm links section doesnt fit in with the rest of wivb.com... its not the same color/ format...
I like how the radar moves!(even though its really small) Thats cool!
theres a glitch/ problem with the "regional radar" when you click on it... might want to check that out.
Yea, the storm links section does not fit in with the rest of the web site!... but you got a start! its better than nothing!
The headings for the storm links section block the downward scrolls when you go to the "sports" or "weather" click bar at the top of wivb.com... could be a problem!!
Dear Mr. Don.
What is the dividing line from south towns to ski country? more or less where is the transition from south towns to ski country. It was always my impression that areas south of Hamburg and Orchard park were ski country and so. tier was below springville. What is your dividing line?
Pretty much as you described, marinecore!
Weekend update coming after News 4 at 11....
I wish someone would come up with a better name for where I live. Being called Ski country is kind of lame. The Southern Tier is this whole bottom of the state right? Skiing is not really that big a deal to most of us down here. That is mostly what tourists do when they come to town. None of my friends downhill ski, they all do cross country, ice skating or some other winter sport.
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home