Snow Chances
The current projected path for a nor'easter on Sun-Mon takes the main energy too far to the east for us to receive heavy amounts. However, as noted on the previous thread, the GFS model has had a tendency to initially move storms further east, and then nudge them back to the N & W in successive runs--so we will have to keep an eye on this system. It's currently most likely to give NYC and Boston a run for their money, with snow & strong winds.
We had our December storm (a month ago on a Sunday, approximately) which delivered a foot+ to the airport and points north, and that system kept getting nudged further N & W as its approach grew closer (which led to rain & mixed precip in much of the srn tier). One big difference this time is that only a weak low will be inland, closer to us. In December's storm, the original interior low was quite well developed, and was slower to transfer its energy to the coastal low. This time around, the coastal low will be the primary low from nearly the outset. As of this writing, we're likely to see some light, wet snow arrive later Sunday, and may see a couple of inches of accumulating, water-laden snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The Navy NOGAPS model takes this system even further out to sea, the UKMET only goes out 72 hours, and the ECWMF (European) model is not terribly dissimilar to the GFS solution.
I'll have more info on this Friday, of course. A somewhat more wintry pattern appears likely later next week as far as temps go, but precipitation is much less certain.
We had our December storm (a month ago on a Sunday, approximately) which delivered a foot+ to the airport and points north, and that system kept getting nudged further N & W as its approach grew closer (which led to rain & mixed precip in much of the srn tier). One big difference this time is that only a weak low will be inland, closer to us. In December's storm, the original interior low was quite well developed, and was slower to transfer its energy to the coastal low. This time around, the coastal low will be the primary low from nearly the outset. As of this writing, we're likely to see some light, wet snow arrive later Sunday, and may see a couple of inches of accumulating, water-laden snow Sunday night into Monday morning. The Navy NOGAPS model takes this system even further out to sea, the UKMET only goes out 72 hours, and the ECWMF (European) model is not terribly dissimilar to the GFS solution.
I'll have more info on this Friday, of course. A somewhat more wintry pattern appears likely later next week as far as temps go, but precipitation is much less certain.
posted by Don Paul at
9:40 PM
47 Comments:
PS: The Canadian GEM model also shows very little if any measurable snow for us with this system as of its latest run.
Don....I am seeing something that indicates that starting next Friday, the 18th, and continuing throughout the entire following week, we will be entering an extended cold snap with daily highs struggling to get to the 25 degree mark....is there validity in this?....I know we are still a week out from this occurring, but I'm wondering what you're seeing?
SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
(Through The Next 72 Hours)
Colder Air Returns To The Lower 48 States
Despite what you may here from some sources about the "lack of cold air", Arctic values have appeared fairly often over Canada this winter. Drainage into the U.S. has been rare, of course, but the build-ups of cAk regime have appeared. Such is the case in the near term; note the abundant field of subzero readings across the northern latitudes. Some of the colder realm will drift south in the near term, in concert with a trough moving through the Mississippi Valley and generating a storm along the Eastern Seaboard. This is not the worst of the tundra values, of course (which WILL head south in the medium range). But the presence of these lower numbers should give a hint at "things to come" during the days ahead.
Diffuse Disturbance Over The Pacific Northwest Will Bring Snow To Locations Further East
Although the spread-out storm complex over the Pacific Northwest does not (now) look the least bit impressive, the energy associated with this feature will give rise to an important winter storm along the East Coast within 72 hours. Linking with the strong subtropical jet stream seen on GOES images (stretching from HI into the Deep South), this feature will grow into a compact storm with sufficient energy and cold air to create snow and ice related problems for much of Appalachia and the Interstate 95 corridor north of Richmond VA. Mixture with sleet and rain (or changes to freezing rain) could curtail snow impacts along the immediate coast, but accumulations of up to a foot may occur just north and west of a Fredericksburg VA to Lynn MA line this Sunday into Monday. The disturbance, once it intensifies, will be the catalyst for mean trough formation and drainage of colder air into the U.S. next week.
Warmth Lingers Only Over The Southwest And The Florida Peninsula
While it is true that the main push of Arctic values into the U.S. will not occur until next week, the thermal profile during the near term is actually quite chilly, with warmer air limited to parts of the American Southwest and the Florida Peninsula. This arrangement of temperatures will favor a storm formation and track from the Southeast up the Atlantic Coastline by late in the weekend.
MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK
(Four To Ten Days From Now)
Arctic Motherlode To Visit The Great Lakes....
A look at the numerical models for the past two runs (12z and 18z) shows a 500MB longwave pattern that has been distinctly rare over the past 11 years: an Arctic motherlode depressed into the Great Lakes with a vigorous -EPO signature and signs (from the 12z Jan 10 ECMWF version) of a developing -NAO styled positive height anomaly. Even if the cAk gyre assumes the position shown in the 18z GFS operational depiction (over Ontario), the push of colder values would be impressive. In short, those who wrote off the 2007-2008 winter as "one of the warmest ever" will, for the moment at least, be very disappointed.
....With Widespread Extreme Cold East Of Continental Divide!
The core of the bitter cold air will fall into the mean trough over North America, with the worst of the bitter air mass lying between the Continental Divide and Appalachian Mountains. Since the actual core of the cAk dome will pass through the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, a relatively rare event, the worst part of the severe temperature drop will be felt on the U.S. side of the border. It is conceivable that if the operational European and American scenarios are correct, that the nocturnal surface 0 deg F isotherm could reach as far south as an Interstate 40 line (say Oklahoma City OK to Knoxville TN), and the freeze line could push well into Mexico at some point during the medium range.
"Piedmont" Or "Miller A Hatteras Low" On January 17 - 20?
The latest runs of the various numerical models agree on the threat for a major winter storm in the medium range. Most of these outlooks show the greatest threat for important precipitation to be over the eastern third of the U.S. But there is some disagreement on the potential track of the cyclone, for the reasons that a) it is still far away in time and b) the placement of the cAk boundary may be either inland or off the coast. The differences in scenarios for the trajectory and structure of this low boils down to a Piedmont type of storm, which would be primarily rain for the Interstate 95 corridor but an ice and snow monster for Appalachia and the lower Great Lakes, or possibly another Nor'easter, similar in path but probably far stronger than the low predicted to affect the major cities of the Mid-Atlantic and New England states in about three to four days. At this time, I lean toward the operational model depiction of the disturbance tracking slightly to the left of the Atlantic shoreline.
EXTENDED PERIOD FORECAST
(Between Day 11 And Day 15)
Another Vicious Arctic Cold Shot For Your Troubles!
I doubt very much that the intrusion of Arctic air experienced during the medium range will be a "one and done" deal. If you look at forecasts of the position of the cAk vortex, the feature actually deepens and sags into N QC (the Ungava Peninsula) through the extended period. Motherlodes in this position teleconnect well with much below normal temperatures to the east of the Rocky Mountains, with a concentration of the coldest readings over the Midwest, Northeast, and of course eastern Canada. Most of the ensemble members of the GFS and ECMWF versions show a second, serious stab of brutally cold air sweeping from Alberta and Saskatchewan through the Great Plains into the Deep South and Eastern Seaboard. In keeping with the previous Arctic blast, the surface cold front penetrates deep into Central America.
To make matters worse, the various equations seem to hold on to the Alaskan block and Ungava gyre through 384 hours, which suggests that even with a warm-up after the extended period, yet another sharp drop in temperatures could occur in at least the northern tier of the U.S.
Ungava Vortex, Alaskan Omega Block Favor A "Miller B" Type Nor'easter
There is also the specter of the Kona Low near Hawaii which, as the polar westerlies breach the lower portion of ridging along the West Coast, could reach Oregon and California late in the extended period. The disturbance could interact with the trough complex linked to the giant cold dome in Quebec. If that is the case, redevelopment may occur in the favorable Cape Hatteras position. Consider that the current forecast is for two major coastal storms over the next 15 days. The synoptic setting would easily favor a third such disturbance around January 24 or thereabouts
Ok... you win for longest post lol!
Ayuud: If you're going to cut and paste on this blog (or at ANY time in school), you must cite your sources. In fact, in college not doing so could get you tossed out of school, so take that to heart. It's not as important here, since this is an informal blog, but plagiarism is a very serious matter in the classroom, and will absolutely not be tolerated in college. Be forewarned, if your high school teachers haven't yet impressed this upon you.
Was that AccuWeather's Joe Bastardi, by the way?
In any case, I do see a sharp cooldown next Thur-Sun, and conditions for some sort of coastal low are going to be somewhat favorable. But I would never presume to "favor a track to the west of the Atlantic shoreline" this far in advance, nor would NCEP or the Climate Prediction Center. The operational GFS and ensembles have been far too inconsistent to make such a statement. As for cold all the way from the 17th thru 384 hours, I do believe temperatures will run below average on the majority of those days. However, the same ensembles this fella points to show a neutral NAO and a positive/warm AO, with only a weakly positive PNA. The operational 18z GFS has a nearly completely different look from the 12z run to the placement of a polar vortex over n. central Canada (the 18z run drops the coldest weather down toward the Rockies and then shuttles on a SWly flow toward us, in which case it would not be nearly as cold as in this discussion. Without a longer term Greenland blocking ridge, it's hard to get as cold for as long as this person predicts it will. And he's who I think he is, he's a brilliant met but he tends to gravitate toward more extreme solutions, ending up with a very spotty track record.
Is it really necessary to post someone elses forecast on here?
I think Don pretty much straightened it out for us.
If your going to post a "WHOPPER" just post a link.
Don-
This question really does not have much to do with this "snow chances" topic. I hope you will answer it though. What kind of relationship do you have with the meteorologists or "forecasters" from the other two local news stations if any? Do you ever exchange any words with mets' from the other two stations... are you allowed to give your honest opinion on other local WNY TV mets on this blog? I would hope you could, but I’m thinking you wouldn’t really want to. Maybe you could do a little review of the other two stations giving your thoughts and experience/ honest opinion?? Have you ever exchanged words or met any of the other local WNY TV mets'? Do you think you all see "eye to eye" when it comes to your business? Why or why not? In your opinion, besides channel 4 weather, which is obviously the best, which station do you think does the next best job at forecasting the weather for WNY?
Many people including myself wonder what the relationship is like between you all... if there is any. I hope you will/ can answer these questions to the best of your ability. If you cant say what you really think… just be smart at wording it… if you know what I mean. Thank you Don! :)
-Jim
Jim, I really don't have that much contact with Mike or Kevin, although I do run into Kevin a few times a year at public functions. I can say that Aaron and Andy have excellent academic backgrounds, but I don't get to see their work very often. Needless to say, I'm quite biased about the work my department puts out on a daily basis in terms of accuracy and detail, and I'm proud we have the most academic depth and years of experience in forecasting WNY weather of any local tv station.
My relationship is really a little closer with some of the NWS folks. Tom Niziol, the Meteorologist in Charge of the Buffalo Office, serves with me on a steering committee to help get our Buffalo Weather Experience Center going toward being a reality on the waterfront. Tom, besides being a terrific guy, is a truly gifted and brilliant meteorologist who has made great advances in the study of lake effect snow, and is a published scientist. (He's also been chosen to forecast for both the Atlanta and Salt Lake Olympics!) I'm also more often in touch with old friends Steve McLaughlin--another great forecaster--and my buddy Dave Sage. I have the highest respect for Bob Hamilton, whose long range discussions on the NWS AFDs are first rate, and in general, with just about all of the excellent staff at our NWS office. I'm sure I've left a few names out, but we all have a good relationship. And, of course, my friends and colleagues here at WeatherWatch 4 all work with great dedication.
A different tale can be told of 2 good buddies of mine in Boston. Harvey Leonard, with degrees from both NYU and Penn State, and Dick Albert, a U of Michigan met grad, used to be prime competitors in that major market, since 1978. But they became best friends, along with their wives, and have the good fortune to now work together at WCVB, one of the best stations in the country. Now, THAT's a great deal for 2 superb mets and bcast talents. And great guys, to boot....
Every now and then kevin will make a wise crack on his weather segment about how he wonders how "some other local meteorologist" not meteorologistS... comes up with the forecast that "they" do. He also will say things like "I dont know why 'another meteorologist' is going with 'high winds' or 'that much snow' or 'rain'... because I dont see it happening. Thats what he says some times, and I feel as if hes calling you out. Stiff competition I guess?!
my bad don but i dont do this at school at all but if u are mad about that ill just stop publishing it to the blog anyways that was Acuuweather joe bastaradi forecast disscussion about this pattern.
Don,
Having lived in Boston I can honestly tell you that Dick Albert, in my mind, has always been top notch! For some reason you have always reminded me of him. I think it is the way you both deliver your forecasts. Well just wanted to add my two cents! :)
Ayuud, perhaps in the future you could just post the URL to a site you find interesting? Don's on the money about plagiarism, too. Do a seach on "Jayson Blair" to learn about how to lose your job and bring nationwide shame upon your employer!
Don - regarding the original comment to start this thread, didn't the NOGAPS model put the Low from the December storm out to sea, too?
And regarding the subtopic of another station who does not employ degreed meterologists, why did that WeatheRate organization rate them as having the most accurate forecasts for our area? I'm assuming that, since they don't have the appropriate background, they just regurgitate someone else's forecast (NWS, Accuweather, etc). Smells like fish to me...
Don, Mike, MB, Lindsay
I can't imagine the work that goes into producing a weather forecast each day. Especially in an area like WNY where scenarios can be very different from one location to the next.
I'll put this to Mike since he is there.
Your on air at 5-am, so what time do you have to be in to gather all your data and then package it into a forecast?
What would you consider to be a 'difficult' forecast day----predicting where a storm will hit and when, ongoing storm situations(snow, thunder, wind etc etc). In other words, a day where your running off your feet.
Is there a day weather forecasters at CH 4 dream about where the pace is a little more manageable...say a big high pressure system and sunshine guaranteed for several days.
It just seems the workload for you folks in Buffalo doing the weather would be alot more hectic than forecasting for the greater Phoenix area! And I make that comment pleading complete ignorance of situations in Arizona!
Thanks in advance.
Ayuud, I'm not really mad about it, but if you do post something like that again, make sure you include the source, okay. Notice, though, how I guessed right about Joe Bastardi.
Marshall, your sensing a fish smell about WeatheRate is pretty perceptive. They've been around for quite a few years. There are about 1400 tv stations in the U.S. They have 13 paid (I said PAID)clients. Enough said.
As for Kevin "calling me out," I find that difficult to believe. If it were true, it would be laughable. Maybe it was just a joke, since he has a decent sense of humor.
barrie1, I'm sure Mike's busy right now preparing for the noon, so you may not hear from him for a while.
As for me, I do a great deal of my meteorological work at home during the late AM/early afternoon, downloading as much NCEP data as I could at work, as well as scanning other global models. I can't access our Future Watch or Super Microcast at home, so I view those at work. Doing a lot of the analytical work at home affords me the opportunity to arrive at work well prepared in most cases. I don't time it exactly, but I know when I was having computer problems in December, I had to show up at WIVB a couple of hours earlier.
I know all 4 of us--and virtually all of our colleagues at the NWS-- look forward to active weather. It's much more challenging, but it's also much more stimulating. A nice stable ridge can bring some relief, but when it hangs on for days, the greatest challenge is to keep the on-air weathercast interesting. I think I usually succeed in finding some smaller points to bring to the audience on those days, but not always.
The most unpleasantly stressful days are severe weather days. There is a climatological tendency for most severe tstorms to occur later in the afternoon, closer to airtime. The stress of preparing a normal weathercast combined with the need to air fast-breaking warnings can take a toll. The workdays are much longer on those days because the analysis needs to be far more thorough, with particular attention paid to the NWS BUFKIT model (developed here and now used nationally) and workstation models on their site. It's funny--I often get excited about a severe weather threat shaping up in a couple of days, but when one actually develops, it can be draining--and I find myself wondering why I "looked forward" to the excitement.
Besides all the off-air data, the number of tools we now have to use both off and on air is amazing. Our 4Warn Doppler radar is an incredible system but, sometimes, it's not always user friendly because it has so many more capabilities than other on air display systems in town. 4Warn has an exclusive set of severe weather algorithms developed by former National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center research mets which help better locate and define the presence of wind shear, rotation, hail and hail size and, on rare occasions, actual tornado vortex signatures.
Lake effect snow and synoptic snowstorms can be exciting, without the stress of moment-to-moment warnings and bulletins. Lots of work to do, but a little more breathing room in which to do it. So many things can go wrong with a snow forecast or a severe storm forecast I'm often amazed we do as well as we end up doing.
Barrie1 - I lived in Phoenix for three years. For the most part, the question was, "How hot will it be today?". The monsoonal flow from Mexico kicks in around July, which results in severe thunderstorms, usually short in duration and often producing dust storms in advance from the downflow. Convection can also develop along the Mogollon Rim to the north, which also produces storms that move south over the Phoenix area.
In December 1997 (it might have been 1998), it snowed briefly for maybe 20 minutes or so. It was kind of ironic that, at the time, I was in a bar owned by a former Buffalonian that was crowded with WNY expatriates to watch a Bills game. Someone hollered, "It's snowing!!", and we all went outside to dance around in it. You would have thought we were drinking, or something... :)
On the opposite extreme, Sky Harbor Airport was closed on one or two occasions that I can remember because of extreme heat (Close to 120 degrees). The airplanes couldn't generate enough lift to take off, supposedly.
Thank you for responding.
I am just wondering(many questions today) what your take is on those stormchaser vacations that are springing up all over the place. I would like to try one next spring in Oklahoma. My wife thinks I am crazy for many reasons including safety.
If not Oklahoma, she's okay with a few weeks in the Tampa Bay area this summer. We usually holiday in Florida for a week or so in winter and I miss out on what I have been told and seen on video are some wild and noisy thunderstorms. Of course, there are safety issues too but I've promised to watch from the window of any condo we rent.
I know stormchasing doesn't guarantee witnessing a tornado.
Anyway--if your time allows..your take on stormchasing tours and confirm Tampa Bay thunderstorms don't disappoint.
Much obliged and enjoy your weekend.
Thank you Marshall Stack for your comments about Phoenix. My kicks about dealing with the snow come from my brother-in-law and wife who live in Raleigh, North Carolina.
barrie1,
my own take on storm chasing tours is that they are a very high risk venture--FINANCIALLY. Most of the tours are run by knowledgeable and experienced folks. But the chances of booking a chase tour which coincides with a genuine severe wx outbreak are fairly slim. If you luck out, they can be a once-in-a-lifetime thrill, and learning experience. But the odds are against you.
Having forecasted in Tampa years ago, I can tell you big thunderstorms are a much more reliable event. Most summer days feature trade winds from the east in the AM bringing tstorms onshore to the east coast, which then drift slowly westward over the heated and moist FL landscape during the day, arriving most often mid/late afternoon with spectacular lightning shows and, sometimes, very strong gusts. Steambath weather, but spectacular skies and often a decent breeze to make the tropical airmass more bearable.
Back to snow chances: the 12z operational GFS model has taken a weaker system further east than yesterday's runs. As of midday today, the chances for significant snowfall in WNY Sun/Mon are extremely low, but there should be a little measurable snow later Sunday evening into Tuesday with a weaker low hanging back over the nrn Great Lakes. The onset of a more wintry pattern looks delayed a little next week in the 12z GFS, and looks nothing at all like the melodramatic cut and paste from Joe Bastardi last night, provided by Ayuud. I still think it may get interesting late next week & the following week. But for the reasons I posted yesterday, I can't get too excited by it at this point.
P.S. It does, at least, look like we'll get a quick hit of Arctic air for Tuesday, with Sct Lt Snow Shwrs.
Don, for someone who has to stay local for college, and is going into the meteorology field... what college(s) would you recomend? So far the only college in WNY that I know of that has a meteorology program is Buff State. I know Brockport has one, but their a bit to far away. If I had it my way, and got to pick the college of my choice to further my studies, I would go to Suny Oswego. I really wish UB had a meteorology program! I hope you can maybe help me out a bit in this area.
Thanks, Sean
Sean,
Buff State does not have a meteorology program. They have what's called a survey course for liberal arts students. The closest degree program is SUNY Brockport. SUNY also offers the degree at Oswego, Oneonta, Albany, and Stony Brook. If you get great grades and SAT scores, Cornell has a fine program, but you get to pay SUNY tuition there for meteorology and get a Cornell degree. The best overall program is at Penn State.
There isn't likely to be a program at Buff State or UB in the future, either, since SUNY already offers the met degree at so many campuses. Oswego has a fine program, since you mentioned it--that's where Tom Niziol graduated. Brockport has turned out Mary Beth, Andy Parker, and Steve McLaughlin, to name a few.
sup Don i think on monday it snowed in iran and they got about 2 feet of snow after that today my dad called me from iraq and he is telling me it is raining white P.s they dont know snow and i told him it is snowing but he told me they had a coating and he never saw that in his whole life and i couldnt find any radar for baghdad
so what do u think about this snow in middle east isnt that a global warming
btw im Egyptian and here is a link about this snowstorm in iraq
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080111/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_first_snow_in_memory
Winter may come back and with lake erie at 37 degrees lake effect could be a good bet. Both the 6-10 day outlooks AND the 8-14 day outlooks on noaa show below average temperatures.
To mention on the snow in the middle east, ayuud, i heard about snow too. My brother is over there in Iraq, I'll ask him about it, maybe he saw it, though I don't know if west Iraq got it, He's with the marines in Fallujah { Thats why my title is marinecore3008}. I"ll ask and see if he got snow.
hey marinecore3008 my dad lives at baghdad and i believe fallujah saw the snow i dont know but ill call my dad later to see if only baghdad got this snow
where is don
(im waitin for u teacher)
hahahahahaahaha
they should really put some smileys in the blog
Ayuud,
Snow does occur infrequently there and in places like Israel, Syria, and Jordan--don't know if you can tie any of this to global warming.
marinecorp3008, I think it's great that you're honoring your brother for his bravery and service to his country. You must be very proud of him, and I wish him a safe return.
Unless you chose the name marinecore for another reason--just in case you don't know--it's U.S. Marine Corps (I think lots of folks think it's core). In any case, good luck to him and his unit in completing their mission in Fallujah!
Best wishes,
DP
hey Ayuud are you going to the trip tommorow?
i called ur telephone and no one answered
ummm did'nt i told u that at school today im coming and we planning to stay there till sunday and come back on monday in time for school Anyways back on weather
Don
You were right again the gfs have the storm farther east
I would like to know if Lake Erie has completely froze over in the past 7 years?
A'ight dude see u tommorow and dont stay up late tonight cuz we going in the morning
see u guys till monday
barbra2001,
Lake Erie has frozen the majority of those years. It has frozen in 9 of the last 12 years, and freezes most years.
Even when "frozen," however, there is usually a small amount of the Lake which remains unfrozen due to turbulence (<10% of the surface).
Don,
First time reader/poster on the Buffalo Weather Blog. I love it! Looking forward to reading it daily and throwing my 2 cents in now and then. I'm a snowmobiler from lockport so I hope for snow every day. Bring on the lake effect!
Dan
Hey don, is there any plans on a phased array station for the buffalo area. With the crazy weather we've been having in the last few years and the sometimes unpredictable snow amts of our lake effect i think it would be a great tool for real 3D images of a storm,
xmrrushx: Phased array is minimally 10-15 years away, if then. Research is currently beginning in Norman, OK. There will be an upgrade to all NWS Dopplers to what's called dual polarization over the next few years, which better differentiates frozen precip, hail, and liquid.
The current radar technology does already allow a 3-D examination in great detail of storm cells. Buffalo is one of 137+ NWS radar sites, so it will have to wait its turn when that next generation technology arrives. We were originally higher on the list for the current superb WSR 88-D radar, but got shoved back until late 1995thanks to a completely bogus scare about microwave radiation emissions causing health hazards. In fact, we were almost in danger of losing our office to a place like Erie, PA due to this mindless ignorance (the forecast office must be located close to the radar site) when first Clarence, then Batavia turned down being the location for the new NWS Office then being located), but Cheektowaga, thank goodness, came through!
Don,
FYI.. Anthony Ansuini at the NWS is also a great person. He answers emails and has sent me links to excellent training on LES including soundings etc...
Don,
Can you contact Paul Kocin and tell him we all say hello!
thanks!
blizzard,
Tony is definitely a good met. I've met him a number of times briefly, but haven't gotten the chance to know him that well yet.
Friday evening update: Fairly tranquil wknd coming up. Looks like a lt mix will arrive Sunday evening and turn to a little snow as an upper midwest low gets a little closer. Periods of lt snow will continue on Monday, with minor accum possible. A shot of colder air and a digging trough will probably get the snow a little better organized by Monday night into Tuesday morning, and a few inches-just a few-will be possible. There could also be a minor lake component to the boundary layer winds, but the forecast position of the trough currently would keep winds light near the metro area and northern suburbs. Wed, an upper level ridge will allow temps to move back toward the upper 30s w/a downslope breeze. A sharp cold front will begin to move toward us on Thursday, but we'll still be in the warm prefrontal flow on Thursday morning, so we may see a mix turn to some snow later as the cold air arrives. The 18z operational GFS has us in a SW flow on Friday, with limited moisture ahead of a sharpening short wave, so some Snow Shwrs or limited lake snow will be a possibility. This short wave may phase in with a stronger wave to our south and develop a potentially important coastal low by Friday night or Saturday, following which significantly colder weather will arrive for at least a few days.
That's a mouthful, all that above. This being only Friday night, there's lots of room for change in that forecast. However, while we won't be picking up quite the extreme pattern Joe Bastardi predicted yesterday, it will definitely be getting more wintry and more interesting around these parts.
Don, thanks for responding to my previous question regarding WNY colleges with meteorology programs. I had known that Buff State doesn’t have a meteorology program; it’s a minor to be most accurate, and in all honesty, that’s not what I’m looking for. My best bet will probably be Suny Brockport, which pretty much has everything I’ve been looking for in a meteorology program. The meteorology major at Brockport is structured as a professional preparation track to employment with the National Weather Service, governmental agencies, and “on-air” TV meteorologist… which is what I want to pursue the most. My dream job is to be a well respected TV met (like you) in Buffalo on WIVB. So… do you think that’s hoping for a bit too much lol! I know I have a long road ahead of me, and that it will be a lot of hard work. I’m one of those people who have been fascinated with the weather for as long as I can remember. Calling myself a weather buff might be suitable, but in my mind its an understatement. I have had a tour of the NWS office in Cheektowaga, what I saw blew my mind. I had a class organized tour of WGRZ, and their weather center, which really was not as “impressive” as I thought it might be. I toured WIVB and your weather center probably 10-12 years ago… I was just a kid in Boy Scouts back then with Rich Newberg’s son David. I would guess that things would have changed a whole lot between then and now. My father works along side with Vic Backer, and he has offered me a personal tour of WIVB and your weather center, however I haven’t taken him up on it yet… I should though, because he’s going to retire in a few months. I went to high school at Williamsville North, and as I’m sure you know, a lot of your colleagues had sons that went there as well. I was high school buddies with Jacquie’s son matt, Riche’s two sons David and Mike, and Al’s son Mitch… hearing many stories from all of them about their parents jobs made me interested in being an on-air met even more. Who knows… maybe Ill actually get the honor to meet you one day?! One funny thing… I had jury duty with you this past summer, and I sat in my chair and watched a lot of people go up to you and try to make small talk… as you were trying to read the book you had brought… I know it comes with the job, but I laughed when I saw you trying to read your book surrounded by a few of your fans. I was too nervous, and felt it would be foolish of me to go up to you and meet you. Don’t ask why lol! Ok I’m done blabbering on for now. Thanks again Don!
-Sean
Ahhh thats such a nice message above. Best of luck to you Sean!
Don, As to your 11pm news cast. My coworkers and I need nightly temps at or below 27 with low humidity to make some snow at Kissing Bridge. Were hoping to get back up and running shortly here. My hopes were ruined when I saw the MOUNDS of snow made last weeks cold weather melt away with this weather but I guess you could say its some sort of job secruity for a college student!!
Hey for any body whos looking for a cool science project or some fun reading check out (www.snowguns.com/eve/forums) Learn to make snow at home! Sorry I love snow and building snow guns enjoy......
-Matt
Don,
As to your 11pm news cast. My coworkers and I need nightly temps at or below 27 with low humidity to make some snow at Kissing Bridge. Were hoping to get back up and running shortly here. My hopes were ruined when I saw the MOUNDS of snow we made in last weeks cold blast melt away with this weather but I guess you could say its some sort of job secruity for a college student!!
Hey for any body whos looking for a cool science project or some fun reading check out (www.snowguns.com/eve/forums) Learn to make snow at home! Sorry but I love snow and building snow guns s maybe someone else would too enjoy......
-Matt
Sean,
Thanks for the nice note. I think you'd have found I'm really pretty approachable--after all, I ain't Sinatra or Jagger, right? (I know you're young, but you've heard of those guys, I'm sure....)
Matt--thanks for clueing me in on the temp you need for the snow guns. You may get an opportunity late tom'w night, but just barely. Sunday night looks shaky, with a lt mix turning to lt snow--but not terribly cold and, obviously, not low humidity. Things may get briefly better Monday night, w/some limited natural snow--and good on Tuesday night. Late next week and next wknd, things should begin looking up.
Good luck!
Yea, I have. I know what you mean :)
Dear Mr. Don
Yea i know its marinecorps but i didn't change my screenname, thank you for giving my brother the best wishes, i appreciate it. Unfortuanately my brother is out on a mission somewhere so it might be a while before we here from him about the snow, by the way it sleetted at my house this morning around say 8 am, that would be the boston hills.
Barre1, thanks for the note. Hectic probably doesn’t accurately describe the mornings here in the weather center. Some of our TV audience may not be aware, that while forecasting, monitoring and presenting the weather on WIVB, I also provide radio weather forecasts to KISS 98.5 Buffalo, 106.9 KISS FM Jamestown, Newsradio 1490 WESB Bradford, PA, 100.1 “The Hero” Bradford, PA, 1410 WDOE Dunkirk and 96 KIX in Dunkirk, NY. I squeeze all of that in-between TV weather hits that run every 7-15 minutes for two hours…though that has just changed, since the Wake-Up show was on the air for three hours up until a week ago.
I wake up at 3:15 AM and arrive at the station shortly after 4 AM each morning. Because my shift is stacked early with newscasts, preparation time is rather short, so pre-prep is done the following day. I always have at least a foundation to work with for the next morning and hopefully, if my forecasting is on the money, changes can be limited.
I’m a stickler for forecast verification with incoming current surface weather observations, radar and satellite loops. These tools present the first warning signs of a computer guidance faux pa. As Don has already touched upon, the wealth of data and computer guidance had become extensive in this era and it becomes even more challenging to find that the computer guidance is not handling a particular situation accurately.
On those days, you take a deep breath and deal with each task one at a time…
Don,
I was looking at NOAA's real time water level data for 1/30/2008.
They posted a low at Toledo of 562.83 (IGLD)at 10:24 and a high at Buffalo of 580.26 (IGLD) at 06:36 a difference in the same day w/ of 17.43 feet!
Mike Everette - Hamburg
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