So, What Happened This Morning?
Let me preface this technical explanation with this: if there are any mets or physicists checking this out, I am taking certain liberties and shortcuts in this discussion. That out of the way, here goes:
Often, when there is a strong cold front with high speed low level jetstream winds not far from the surface, a very strong barometric pressure gradient occurs with the passage of the front. Most of the bloggers here have heard of ISOBARS--lines of equal barometric pressure taken at surface observation points. In this type of pattern experienced early this morning, we looked at another parameter: ISALLOBARS--lines of an equal rate of barometric pressure changes (up or down a certain number of millibars). Meteorologists look for ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS with the passage of fronts to see if there is a very tight gradient of pressure falls and rises just ahead of and just behind the front. ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS, when tight and strong enough, enable strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface more readily. Late last night, an ISALLOBARIC COUPLET of a 5mb change in 3 hours was considered impressive enough to forecast strong winds with gusts of up to 50 mph possible. 5mb in 3 hours is quite a significant couplet. But, instead, a shocking 14mb/3 hour change occurred. Sharp falls ahead of the front and steep rises immediately behind the front create a "wind tunnel" toward the east into the weak pressure from the sharp jump (here's the shorthand: "nature abhors a vacuum"). The strength of this ISALLOBARIC COUPLET was simply not evident in last evening's soundings or model runs. A fairly strong couplet was evident, but not a powerful 14mb/5hr couplet--which is relatively rare.
As to why the couplet strengthened so much, I still don't have all the answers. A similar but worse case occurred 2 nights ago over Wisconsin, when tornadoes and damaging straightline winds developed unexpectedly. But by last evening, there was scant evidence of such strengthening at our latitude. The Storm Prediction Center didn't have us at risk for severe weather, either. The risk was believed to be further to the SW (where conditions were far more unstable, and there was more spin potential in the lower atmosphere).
One element we did call correctly was on the timing. Although the Wind Advisory was not to go into effect until 7am, we did say at 11 that some folks would receive an early wakeup call from the strong winds around 4:30 to 5am. Not good enough, but at least it's something....
Often, when there is a strong cold front with high speed low level jetstream winds not far from the surface, a very strong barometric pressure gradient occurs with the passage of the front. Most of the bloggers here have heard of ISOBARS--lines of equal barometric pressure taken at surface observation points. In this type of pattern experienced early this morning, we looked at another parameter: ISALLOBARS--lines of an equal rate of barometric pressure changes (up or down a certain number of millibars). Meteorologists look for ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS with the passage of fronts to see if there is a very tight gradient of pressure falls and rises just ahead of and just behind the front. ISALLOBARIC COUPLETS, when tight and strong enough, enable strong winds aloft to mix down to the surface more readily. Late last night, an ISALLOBARIC COUPLET of a 5mb change in 3 hours was considered impressive enough to forecast strong winds with gusts of up to 50 mph possible. 5mb in 3 hours is quite a significant couplet. But, instead, a shocking 14mb/3 hour change occurred. Sharp falls ahead of the front and steep rises immediately behind the front create a "wind tunnel" toward the east into the weak pressure from the sharp jump (here's the shorthand: "nature abhors a vacuum"). The strength of this ISALLOBARIC COUPLET was simply not evident in last evening's soundings or model runs. A fairly strong couplet was evident, but not a powerful 14mb/5hr couplet--which is relatively rare.
As to why the couplet strengthened so much, I still don't have all the answers. A similar but worse case occurred 2 nights ago over Wisconsin, when tornadoes and damaging straightline winds developed unexpectedly. But by last evening, there was scant evidence of such strengthening at our latitude. The Storm Prediction Center didn't have us at risk for severe weather, either. The risk was believed to be further to the SW (where conditions were far more unstable, and there was more spin potential in the lower atmosphere).
One element we did call correctly was on the timing. Although the Wind Advisory was not to go into effect until 7am, we did say at 11 that some folks would receive an early wakeup call from the strong winds around 4:30 to 5am. Not good enough, but at least it's something....
posted by Don Paul at
7:41 PM
45 Comments:
hey don what happen during the cold summer i believe it was in 1940 or around that time because we are doing a project about that and i wanted to get The overview of the topic
Thanx
Sorry, I can't help you with that one, Ayuud. You can try visiting the climate section of the NWS Buffalo website, but I couldn't find anything readily available.
A request: A few of you asked that I give a further explanation of this morning's severe weather. Let's keep this thread confined to that subject. Other weather questions and statements can go up on the immediate past thread with the embarassing title: "Strong-Not High-Winds Expected."
Thanks for your cooperation. DP
I'm wonder Mr. Don, how did the squall like form over the 37 degree lake? wouldn't there be a shadow? I know in summer there is, and the lake was 25 degrees colder than the air.
i couldnt find it eaither im doomed the project is due tommorow
i meant a lake shadow
Good question, marinecore...Even though this was low-topped convection (virtually the only kind you can get in the winter this far north), it was what's called ELEVATED convection. There is less of tie-in to conditions at the surface, with the warm prefrontal conveyor belt of moist a few thousand feet up was one of the driving forces. In other words, these storms were disconnected from the relatively colder lake water.
don when is our best shot at snow im a snowmobilier and i need it
Don this morning’s event in my book was simply amazing, I woke from a dead sleep and ran to check the data on my weather station. The wind speed and temp change was outstanding. At 2:55am the outdoor high temp was 64.76'F. when I woke at 4:15 it was 50.18'f ten mins before it was 58.82, I watched it then change at a rate of over ten degree's an hour with 50mph wind speeds. I back to bed about 45mins later only to be rudely awoken again by the highest recorded wind gust of the morning at 67.5mph and 6 degrees colder, at 6:21am. So after all that excitement I was wondering what caused the second and more powerful wind gusts 2hrs later after the passing of the squall line. It didn’t show any sign of dissipation on the Doppler, when I checked it was intensifying when it hit land. I was checking info on "derecho's" to see if it applied to this morning’s event, but didn’t see to many similarities. I guess i'm looking for the more scientific explanations you left out in the beginning. i've picked the wrong career of mechanics when i should have stayed with my love of weather, hopefully going to go back to school and take up meteorology at brockport. If the identity looks familiar i sent you some pics of lightning back in july and of a funnel cloud last year after the june 30th fun.
my bad, now two years ago, 6/30/06
xmmrushx:
The peak gust at 6:21 (6:41 at the NWS)was part of the impact of the rise couplet behind the front, with jet winds mixing down to the ground--pressures were still jumping upward at that point.
You're right--this was not a derecho event, to be discussed another time on another thread).
Don-
Just how uncomon is the severe weather we had this morning in the month of January? Ive lived in Buffalo all my life, and I cant ever remember temps around 65 degrees, with severe thunderstorms. This really was a spring like event.
What a suprise!
I like how people think this is the only time we ever hit the 60s in January, but if look a the NWS climate past F-6 data i can see many times of temps in 60s. Not every year but a few. I hope people do not start blaming global warming. Don you are my favorite weatherman keep it up!!
It's uncommon but not unprecedented. On New Year's Day 1985, we had a high of 63. A cold front came through with high winds and some peak gusts of over 70 mph.
There have been more recent severe weather events during this month as well, but I don't have them committed to memory (and I've learned not to trust human memory, including my own!).
Don-
You have said in a previous post that you were in town and experienced the severe weather we had this morning. I hope you don’t find this question too personal, but what were you thinking (what was going through your head) when you were woken up by the storm... or the warnings that came before the storm hit? Were you just as surprised as everyone else, or did you stay up later after the 11pm newscast and start to see the set up? It must have been a huge surprise... because I don’t think any meteorologist on any station was calling for what actually happened. You are by far the best meteorologist. Both of the other stations played this storm as if they had a guess this would happen... whereas they both were the furthest from the most accurate forecast. I like how you admit you were wrong, and you actually explain what happened and how rare it was. No other station did that… its almost as if they looked at what happened and said “oh well”. They took the easy way out. So many people look to you when it comes to the weather, and your forecast was not quite on the money… but if there had to be a “winner” it would be you. By you admitting that you were wrong, and telling everyone what actually happened… in detail, its almost as if people bypass the fact hat you botched the forecast up. In situations like this, you always handle it the best… and with that said, keep up the excellent work… so many people look up to YOU… and there’s a reason we do!
Thanks, Sean
anyone have a radar imagery of the storms going through? I was sleeping at the time, woke up to huge hailstones, wind, and rain hitting my window, then went back to bed. Would like to see what that line looked like. Thanks!
Here's what I was thinking: "Uh oh!" (I cleaned that up for the blog.)
Thanks for the kind words about my mea culpa. Actually, it was Jacquie who'd looked at the tape of the 11 to remind me I'd gotten the timing spot on. But for me to then ignore the error in magnitude--to try to cover up--would have been ridiculous and insulting to the viewer.
Rich, did you see any of the hailstones? None of the storm damage reports included significant hail (by size). Just curious.
don for some reason the storm didnt hit my area but there was wind that can blow u off and btw why did the buffalo public schools were open today i mean little kids wait for the bus in the morning and they were some downed trees what if something would have happen to them who will be responsible the schools i mean c'mon all the other schools were closed except for buffalo schools which are stubborn for making decisions
Knarly wind and global warming.
Look at how low the lake levels are. Look at how western wild fires of epic size normally were rare but now regularity, more than once a year. On a recent CBS 60 Minutes telecast a Firefighter Chief who works wildfires said that there are no longer any global warming doubters in the wild fire lines. My experience is that Lake Erie is freezing over less and less each year or later each year for shorter durations.
Imagine how low our electric bills would be in WNY if we had small wind turbines on our homes. I wonder how much electrical energy could have been harvested from the wind we had last night? The power in this storm could have lit up cities if it could be tapped. Also look at the waves smacking into the breakwalls off Buffalo. Imagiine if we had some leadership in NY State and Buffalo that would fund some r and d on our waterfront for generating electricity from wave power in the lake.
It would be very cool to see a wind turbine next to some of those wivb antennas in North Buffalo.
While global warming is ongoing, lake levels are more cyclical and have always been, even before discernible warming had begun. Levels have been this low before, many times. I'm not denying global warming has some effect with changes in precipitation patterns, but I'm not convinced this particular lower water cycle can be measurably tied to warming. On the other hand, the growing season has definitely lengthened, and first frost/last frost dates have come closer together, so the likelihood is we are seeing increased rates of evaporation from the Great Lakes.
Don,I cant help but laugh.I heard you just say to check out the weather blog and look at the discussion.I cant help but wonder at times if you regret starting this blog.Between getting slammed for any slight miscalculations in forecast,or listening to my criticism of NWS at times and that fairly heated exchange with the at home weather expert who seems to know all the models,graphs and has manufactured an idea that his expertise compares to yours and feels completely justified in being a couch weather anchor.
At times I am critical of NWS because it seems most of the storms this year they said would be big have fizzled out,the october storm,no explanation or even conjecture of why this has been such an active season(I know fully well that weather is not an exact science and in no way expect them to know things that only god would know).
But I cant help but wonder if you regret this.I do enjoy it when exciting things happen.I dont check when things are not happening.But do enjoy it.
No matter what the couch anchors say I think you guys do a good job even when there are misses even though I wonder how things can be missed and often forget to remind myself we cant know everything.I even can say the NWS is good compared to weather forecasting when I was a kid.I did read this morning that you put up a post about how little warning anyone had that these things would come together.And they put the watch and warning up as soon as they saw it but it left little time in between.I was up for the whole thing.It really scared the hell out of me.I thought it was a tornado from the sound of it.But I know they had the watch up for nearly an hour before the line hit.So anyone that was in bed of course had no warning,but the rest of us who were up had an hour to know something might happen and keep your eye out.Again,I remember when I was a kid we had no warning often.I dont remember any warning of the blizzard of 77.I remember them saying some snow maybe,and nothing like we ended up with.
OH.I did email the station right after the storm.I had turned off the computer and television in case of a surge so i had no idea it was a line.I saw the warning but didnt read it completely.I assumed it was a popcorn type of storm like we get in the summer.It sounded like a freight train.I had no idea it was a whole area thing,I assumed it was just in Lockport.I didnt get internet back until later and didnt find out it was a whole area happening until a couple hours later.I really thought from the sounds of it Lockport took a hit.But we arent even mentioned on the news.I can tell you from the sounds of debris hitting outside I assumed it was alot!
Don, I was perplexed at 4AM when the storm seemingly only effected one side of my house. My home faces North so I know understand why I was getting the brunt on the West wall of my house, because it was heading East. I have to echo the sentiment regarding your frankness with your viewers. You are respected for your honesty, we all understand this is not an EXACT science. But it is a science not just another facet of broadcasting. That's what your competitors fail to comprehend. PS: How about a get together for the Blog...(maybe Mother's) :)
I'm thankful for the heads-up we all got, at least in regard to the timing of the storm. As I mentioned in the previous thread, I woke up at about 4:15 to the jet-enginelike sound of the wind, and our dog pacing nervously. I panicked for a minute (perhaps foolishly), thinking there might be a tornado coming. Fortunately, that wasn't the case, but it got me thinking about what would happen if we ever had one in the middle of the night? A lot of people probably wouldn't have known until it was too late. YIKES!
What would it have taken to generate the "spin" in the atmosphere needed to generate a tornado in yesterday morning's event?
Misfitfan..
You make some valid comments about armchair forecasters. Many of these people only remember the times they were right.. and conveniently forget the times their armchair forecasts were way off. Anonomity is a great ego booster. Try putting your forecast on the line each and every day for the public to see, and see how often the amateurs get it right.
Ironically, it's the increase in accuracy of the forecasts that has made it even more challenging for the meteorologist to get it right every time. The bar keeps getting raised as the forecasts get more accurate.. so predicting "strong winds with gusts to 50 mph" is somehow perceived as a miss when the gusts reach 70 mph.
By the way, for the blizzard of '77, NWS did indeed issue a blizzard warning for western NY (first time they ever issued a blizzard warning), but it wasn't until 10 am that morning, and even then it was for blizzard conditions developing later in the day. Instead, the blizzard hit at 11 am and the rest is history..
Marshall,
Many tornado fatalities occur late at night for precisely the reason you suggested. The NWS can issue watches and warnings, but how many people will be aware of them at 4am? In parts of the country where violent storms are more common, many Kansans (for example)own NOAA Weather Radios in order that the tone alert can wake them.
As for what it would take to make a tornado more likely, there's a fluid dynamics property called Helicity. When the wind direction turns clockwise with height (that is, a southerly wind at the surface becomes westerly by the time you reach a certain altitude), that's positive helicity and can help to begin to spin a vertical column of air. Negative helicity does not have that effect. In the colder weather season, it can take lower values of helicity and other elements of instability to induce relatively violent storms than in warm weather. These markers tend not to jump out at mets so much at this time of the year. Yesterday's severe weather is a good reminder to pay more attention.
To Lindsay, Mike, MB and Don
This is a great Blog site and for us down here in Ski Country your expert advice is very helpfull with everyone involved in the WinterSports Recreation Industry. Please keep posting. I can only imagine the time it takes to get forecasts on the air and this site. Please do not allow the psuedo weather blog experts to discourage you from continuing this site.
Thanks.
To Lindsay, Mike, MB and Don
This is a great Blog site and for us down here in Ski Country your expert advice is very helpfull with everyone involved in the WinterSports Recreation Industry. Please keep posting. I can only imagine the time it takes to get forecasts on the air and this site. Please do not allow the psuedo weather blog experts to discourage you from continuing this site.
Thanks.
Yes I agree the duration between frost and thawing out in this area has changed.
Thanks for keeping the wind information on your forecasts.
It's interesting to watch violent Spring lows when they track west to east across Lake Erie. A few years ago I witnessed just such an occurence. What looked like whisps of a water spout, with lightening crossed towards Buffalo from Port Colborne. There was some slight circular movement of it. The clouds were extremely black and omminous. There were only small ripples on the lake and lightening hitting the water off shore. There was some hail too. I took shelter under a roof top as the storm passed. The air temperatures were very warm and the water very cold. A short time later a trailer park east of Buffalo was struck, by this same system that I witnessed, and resulted in a fatality. Lake Erie is really more of a blessing despite the snow storms.
The power of nature is something to be respected always. Thank goodness for the benefits we all derive from better scientific tools and technology. Thanks for being there with your knowledge and expert weather observations.
Prior to the cold frontal passage resulting in the Blizzard of 77, the NWS had all sorts of special statements out since the predawn hours of a major weather event in the offing. No, they didn't nail it, but there was some warning. You also have to remember at the time there were no meteorologists on the air in Buffalo tv. The gravity of the setup the night before could have escaped the eyes and minds of weathercasters who really lacked any academic background, and who tended to look at the NWS text forecast with no ability to read the more technical Area Forecast Discussion.
Severe weather, of course, is the reason you'll never again see a non-met doing weather in places like Oklahoma City and Wichita. The same is true for Boston, Minneapolis, Omaha, Tampa, New Orleans, & Houston. Those viewing publics are on to the need for expertise, as they should be. Even those of us who allegedly know what we're doing blow forecasts, but a lack of meteorological education and experience can be critical during fast-breaking severe weather situations.
... Just like a certian head meteorologist on channel 2 lol! This is very true!
Kevin O. is the last of his kind!
WNY is in the "heavy snow outlook" for this coming Monday. If the forecasted storm takes a track more to the east, it would bring heavy snow to the east coast and WNY.
Sorry, anonymous. I don't know what your source is, but WNY is not in any Heavy Snow outlook for Monday at this time.
To be fair on another point, K.O. doesn't claim to be a meteorologist. His title is Chief Weather Anchor.
don this weekend is really shiftong nw and i agree with the Anommynous the storm is likely to bring moderate to heavy snow to our area
Hello CH 4 weather team
One more comment about the big wind and weather event on the morning of January, 9th.
I believe Don has been wonderful in explaining how the system played tricks--- even on the experts. And that includes Environment Canada!
On the night of the 8th, Environment Canada issued a wind warning for several communities to the north of Barrie, Ontario along the shoreline of Georgian Bay. EC expected the strongest winds along the Lake Huron/GB shoreline. If memory serves, I believe Don made mention of similiar strong winds closest to Lake Erie.
By 430 am the next day, wind warnings were posted for the Toronto area after a gust of just over 60 mph was posted at Pearson International Airport.
I might add, Barrie recorded gusts to 55 mph and got over 2 inches of rain.
I surely don't believe anyone 'goofed' here. In fact, like life itself---when your talking about Mother Nature-- I guess sometimes you have to expect the unexpected.
Cheers
Thank you, Barrie1.
Alex, that could happen, but there's zero evidence of it happening at this time--only light snow from a trough extending from the primary low deepening off the SE New England coast.
hey don lets be logical here every storm so far this winter the model were having some tough time with it and the last couple runs they show it tracking NW so far this storm was shown on the gfs earlier runs but it lost it and both euro and gfs had the storm go offshore but yesterday the gfs showed the storm forming around the gulf and tracking NE affecting the i95 area but what really interesting is that the model is tending more to the NW track because of the SE ridge and even the latest run show our area for light to moderate snow so in my opinion i expect this storm to track around the Nyc and other low form behind it and provide us with light to moderate snow but heavy snow is possibility ..... right now don u are thinking "does he have a support" yes i do and thats the only thing for storm track this winter from the gulf coast toward the Applachians and ohio valley
don feel free to give me your opinion
Alex, my first opinion is you're a little bit over the top in telling me to "be logical here." Are you trying to replace lakeshadow, by any chance? Cool your jets a bit, young man.
I said it could happen, but there was no evidence of heavy snow yet in the models. Yes, the GFS has had a tendency to be too far east and south in early runs with storms during the last month. But each storm is a separate entity, and there is no guaranteed "storm track" which could be locked into place for all events. Your first post said "the storm is likely to bring moderate to heavy snow to our area." Yes, that could happen. But no, you don't have solid ground to stand on AT THIS TIME. It's just conjecture, and you might have been advised to mention it as a possibility rather than a probability. No one in the meteorological community is making such a prediction at this time. By tomorrow, that could change. I like snow too, so I hope your guess works out. I can't forecast based on guesses--not even my own.
Don i agree with u i might be a little weenie on this whole storm but what do u think about models this year since they are having hard time with this flip-flop pattern.........dont u think they need to upgrade it or fix it
Don one last question
the models are showing a pattern change after next week so what do u think about that or is it there normal flip-flop
The NWS forecast discussion said things may get favorable for lake effect at the end of next week. Of course that's a "MAY"and predicting lake effect is impossible this far out. By the way Kissing Bridge has closed, ughhh no skiing for me tomorrow, o well we've got more winter coming.
Holiday Valley is open still, maybe I can go there.
hey don when is our next shot at getting a good amount of snow us snowmobleiers need it
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