Strong--not High--Winds on the Way
Winds will strengthen overnight, after another incredibly warm day. Some gusts will exceed 40 mph later this evening, particularly along the L Erie shore and on s tier ridges, where the downslope winds tend to be strongest. Shwrs will gradually increase this evening, and become numerous and somewhat heavier after midnight, with a few tshwrs thrown in. As we've discussed, the airmass behind the predawn cold front is Pacific in origin, so cooling is not going to be impressive for this time of the year. Strong winds continue Wednesday, diminishing late, with an NWS Wind Advisory in effect at 7am. Gusts may reach 50 mph, especially downwind of Lk Erie.
The next storm system will move toward us with no supply of Arctic air to tap until it's passed, so some rain will move in Thursday evening. The rain may mix with or turn to a bit of snow on Friday. Weekend temperatures will be seasonably chilly. The turn to a more wintry pattern is still on tap for next week, with uncertain snow potential--nothing big showing up just yet which would have any reliability. The Operational GFS--the one you see on the internet--does show an impressive pattern shift to wintry (not extreme) conditions, but the Ensemble of other parallel GFS runs you don't see have a more moderate solution.
No doubt the ski resorts have taken a huge hit since Sunday. Looks like snow-making conditions will improve during the weekend and into early next week. It remains to be seen how much nature will help out after that time period.
The next storm system will move toward us with no supply of Arctic air to tap until it's passed, so some rain will move in Thursday evening. The rain may mix with or turn to a bit of snow on Friday. Weekend temperatures will be seasonably chilly. The turn to a more wintry pattern is still on tap for next week, with uncertain snow potential--nothing big showing up just yet which would have any reliability. The Operational GFS--the one you see on the internet--does show an impressive pattern shift to wintry (not extreme) conditions, but the Ensemble of other parallel GFS runs you don't see have a more moderate solution.
No doubt the ski resorts have taken a huge hit since Sunday. Looks like snow-making conditions will improve during the weekend and into early next week. It remains to be seen how much nature will help out after that time period.
posted by Don Paul at
3:00 PM
62 Comments:
its nice and warm and windy but im a skier so i want cold. by the way lake erie is up to 37 degrees. hmm lake effect is a good possibility.
I agree, I was supposed to go snowshoeing this weekend and that is going to be impossible now. I wish our snow would come back again, I miss the old winters where it stuck right through until at least March.
Actually, when you go back thru NWS records, there have been only a relatively few winters where snow stayed on the ground for the entire season. There certainly have been milder winters more often in recent years, no disputing that.
But even in the brutal winter of 76-77, there was quite a thaw during the latter part of the winter.
Looking forward to the next ENSO diagnostic discussion on El Nino/La Nina that's coming out on Thursday. The latest talk is that La Nina will continue through February 2008 which would signify a continuation of our roller-coaster winter with arctic shots and warm-ups as we've seen thus far. However, as Don and I mentioned in the previous post, a more wintry pattern is in the offing as we head into the second half of January. Skiers delight!
In the nearterm, though, skiers will have to be patient. The ensemble data (multiple model runs) for the NAO show no turn toward the negative/cold phase (more likely closer to neutral), the AO (Arctic Oscillation) dips to a cold phase ever so briefly and then rebounds upward, and the PNA shows a tendency to remain mostly flat in the ensemble as well.
Each week since late autumn, the Climate Prediction Center has maintained its forecast of the current la nina to remain in place until spring, and time lapse imagery of the cold water pool in the eastern tropical Pacific supports this trend. That being the case, the chance for a truly lengthy wintry pattern to set up is certainly less than 50%, but not out of the question. As I mentioned earlier today, the single operational run of the GFS had been showing a more wintry pattern setting for next week, but the latest run (18z) is less impressive, more in line with the spaghetti (multiple) plots/ensemble runs of the GFS. Ensemble forecasting is generally a superior method of looking at model trends, rather than a single operational run. Even some of us mets underutilize ensemble forecasting because it's more time-consuming, and it's easier to look at single operational runs many of you have seen on the NCEP site. But at NCEP itself, and the Climate Prediction Ctr, ensembles are the way they go. Accuracy/verification scores are better when all runs are weighed.
Final note: the 18z operational run of the GFS does show a markedly wintry trend after Jan 22-23. But, again, the GFS resolution in a single run at that range in time is very inconsistent. The sharp turn toward more more wintry weather around the 17th-20th is now much weaker. Unless you see such a trend in run after run, it's nothing to hang a hat on.
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FYI: An ensemble forecast is simply a collection of two or more forecasts verifying at the same time. You can compare a variety of atmospheric variables (i.e. sea level presure, 500mb heights,) from different weather models and run them in a visual format. This allows a met to acquire a feel for the possibilities of how the weather pattern will evolve, and it'll also help to boost confidence in certain models versus others.
I'm sure I've left some of you who are interested in what ensembles are at least a little confused--and it CAN be confusing.
If you're in for a little heavy reading, NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory has an explanation at:www.cdc.noaa.gov/spotlight/12012001/
NCEP puts out 11 different runs of the GFS at 12z and 12 runs at 00z, each with slightly different initial conditions, to gain an ensemble of GFS model output. The initial conditions are changed, or perturbed, only slightly from one to another--within the range of possible variations in initial conditions. By looking at the output from all these runs--in the form of plots which look like strands of cooked spaghetti--you can get an ensemble average which, in most cases, will be better than the single operational run of the GFS on the NCEP site.
These plots are called spaghetti plots as a shorthand because that's what they look like.
And, when I said some of us mets don't always look enough at these model ensembles/spaghetti plots, I include myself.
These ensemble plots are most useful in preparing an extended outlook and trend forecast.
Okay, feel free to snore!
Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued for all of WNY at 3:20am. Looks like the severe weather we had not expected is likely...
The entire severe thunderstorm watch box only includes the 8 counties of WNY plus Rochester. Line of storms now forming over lake Erie...
Funny how we were not expecting any severe weather... Crazzzzy winter, so not normal!!!
I just got a notice from weatherbug of a severe thunderstorm watch for niagara county until 8.I have never heard of that one before.A severe storm watch in january.New one for me!The temp yesterday blew me away and loved it,now this.It also seems to me that NWS has issued more watches and warnings so far this winter than I can remember in entire winter seasons in my 36 years.Most have either fizzled out or delivered a half hearted blast.They never seem to even come close to the predictions.I know weather is as much of an exact science as medicine but how can they get it wrong so many times,why cant they explain why this year seems to be more active than normal.I have a feeling we are going to get one major major storm this year that will shut us down.I do believe in global warning and el nino but cant believe it is causing this extremely strange season.I think nws needs to figure out whats going wrong in the prediction process and why these strange occurances are happening.
SEVERE T'STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR ERIE COUNTY IN WNY!
Is this January??? Or is it July??!! Severe storms in WNY in January... when was the last time this happened???
Wow! Look at this line of storms! The whole line is dark maroon from Niagara Falls down to the S. Tier!
OMG! Powers out in Amherst! What a storm!!!
This was one of the worst thunderstorms i have seen in a long time.. A very strong convective line with a bow echo... I have been checking out weathernets across WNY.. HEre in Arcade/Yorkshire we had a peak gust of 62 MPH and Small Hail. Highest gust i have seen across WNY is 70 MPH at Akron... Temperature has dropped 15.3 degrees within 10 mins here in Arcade... Have to love weather in WNY...
Wow..that one woke me up. I don't think I've heard winds like that in some time, if ever. I can't wait to see the wind results for our area in the morning.
Im in 14221, and still have power.
I take that back it was not 70mph at Akron.. I am sure MIke will show peak wind gusts on wakeup..
Don,
Yeah that was one of the worst storms for sure... Thank goodness it only lasted a few mins.. BUt i tell you i can't remember winds like that...
Powers out all over the Amherst area... I dont remember winds like that! The winds were so strong! Many branches are down... many are big!
were we expecting this?
This was the worst severe thunderstorm line to cross WNY in quite some time, and we were not even talking the possibality of severe storms for us! Another suprise!! Got to love Buffalo weather :)
Suprise suprise! Where did this one come from? Haha
There are a lot more power outages than I yhought there were! What a storm!!! I dont remember winds that strong!
And to think the forecast was only calling for rain showers with a possibal thundershower....
Its 5:40am, I was just out driving and couldnt believe the number of branches and whole trees down within the Amherst area (Transit road and NFB was checked out) The power is out at the majority of red lights... Police are at the major intersections. I wonder how some schools are going to start on time! This was a wide spread storm when it comes to the power outages and tree debris.
Schools are starting to close!
It's 6:20 a.m. in Gowanda and the wind came back up and it's raining really hard.
Might have been just me but I could have sworn I saw red , blue and green lightning last nite , and it wasnt a transformer going and no it's not a flashback.
It all sudden got real windy , wall of rain for a few minutes then multi colored lightning.
Extremely windy in Hamburg since then.
Be safe all , How is this only an advisory??
High Wind Warning
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
629 AM EST WED JAN 9 2008
...STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...
I woke up at about 4:15 to what sounded like the red eye landing in my yard. I live close to the airport, but not THAT close. Holy mackerel was that a squall line!
I ventured out around 6 to walk the dog, and had to dodge a discarded Christmas tree that one of my idiot neighbors has had at the curb since last Saturday. Aside from some other stray garbage and a few roof shingles, not a lot of damage in the Walden Avenue/Dick Road area. A few branches in the street at Dick Rd. and Genesee, too. The lights flickered around 6:45, but the power stayed on.
In Clarence, high winds and rain buffetted the house starting around 4:15am and we lost power at 4:30am. I saw 2 Tim Horton's and 1 Duncan Donut without power on way in. Now that's cause for panic!
I found it interesting that "anonymous" complained about innacuracies of nws predictions but yet believes in global warming? Not sure how you can "believe" in long-term GW predictions (which are BS) when nws can't even accurately predict tomorrow's weather.
I was reading storm reports on the NWS site and saw this:
737 aircraft blown into jetway. Apparent Wing damage.
Reported by weather observer.
We woke with the sound of hail pelting the house at about 4:20am. I kind of expected a severe TS because it was a possibility with the front moving in from the west and the energy and history of this system...which is why I was a little flippy yesterday when the radar was down... But there was a chance of T.S.'s in the forecast for early morning hours on Wed. The NWS didnt put us in the watch boxes until there was a warning...did they figure everyone was sleeping so it didnt matter?
So I checked the restored radar for cell information and saw that it was passing through quickly. I didnt see any bow echos at all, though... The highest cell was at 10,000 ft. with a low vil. actually the 4,000 ft high cells are what produced the hail.
Now I remember why I started to learn about weather; to access those radars and maps and the network that gives me something to fall back on when the weather sneaks up on us in the middle of the night...
A High Wind Warning remains in effect until noon EST today.
Southwest winds of 30 to 40 mph will continue through this morning
with gusts up to 60 mph. The winds are expected to diminish
somewhat by midday into the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts of
around 45 mph for this afternoon. The winds will diminish further
this evening.
NWS statement...its funny if you read the headline of the thread before you read this...
(lol, anon...)
3.1 earthquake in Lake Erie this morning, just NW of Mentor, OH.
according to ANSS.
Well, I certainly missed the intensity on these storms--no getting away from that. The only saving grace in my 10 & 11pm casts was that I mentioned while the Wind Advisory didn't go into effect until 7am, Strong Winds would certainly arrive before that, in the predawn hours. There was nothing in the soundings yesterday and last night which indicated so much mixing of strong winds aloft to the ground would occur to the extent that widespread damage would occur.
Some of the remarks made on this thread about the NWS are blatantly wrong, and far more inaccurate than any inaccuracies in given forecasts.
Severe thunderstorms have occurred at this time of the year before, though infrequently (Feb 17th last year, i.e.) Instability is a bit harder to discern in the winter months because all convection is "low-topped" at this latitude in the winter, and the indices we use don't jump out at you as much as in warmer months.
lakeshadow, your audacity continues to amaze me. Your radar information is way off base, and you're simply not qualified to make such statements. Tops ranged from 20-25 thousand during the line's passage--there are no 4000' cells producing hail--just plain gibberish. You can't just put your hand on a rock and declare yourself a radar analyst.
The Watch was issued at almost the last minute because the ingredients came together at almost the last minute. Sometimes the atmosphere gives us a very short fuse to work with.
wow, don. I'm sorry I was looking at the cess information on the Nexrad and thats exactly what I saw. I wont try to report anything else. Is that earthquake info false, too?
cell information, not cess..sorry again.
lakeshadow, did it ever occur to you that you lack the education and training to make such assessments? If it hasn't, it should.
You put wrong information up here for all to see.
You might ponder something I posted on an earlier thread: one of the most important elements of an education in a science is the development of a sense of the LIMITS of your knowledge. I know the unexpected ferocity of this morning's winds was a reminder of that concept to me.
"You put wrong information up here for all to see."
that seems to be going around.
sorry again. a polite correction and maybe some guidance as to where I'm mistaken would be helpful.
I'll refrain from posting any observations. Obviously I'm some sort of idiot.
Lakeshadow,
I think you might be taking Don's comments a little too hard. Just remember forcasting the weather is more than just model and radar reading (which is all that I do). The real forecasting can only be done by trained pro's like Don himself. I don't think your a idiot, just under educated on the subject of weather forecasting (as most of us are, myself included).
I dont ever attempt to forecast. I wouldnt dare. I address the models and radar as I see them, hoping for some guidance but don shoots me down everytime and he's not nice about it. I can only learn something after I get chastized about whatever it is that I posted.
I get it..he's the scientist. we all sit and wait for him to say something and dont question it because we are all underqualified...I know I'm not an idiot..but he seems to be quite certain that I am, and since he's the intellectual superior... he must be right.
Would you like some kleenex Lakeshadow???
Now how bout we get back to actual weather!! Don, How does the lake effect potential look for the upcoming cold wave? Haven't heard anything about wind direction or upper level temperatures yet? Any chance we get dumped on? Thanks!
no thank you..I'm fine. dont worry about me.
bonehead.
Later Weatherblog...I think I've gotten as much out of this as I care to.
Not everyday someone gets called a bonehead on a weather site.....lol. Well good, now we can all get back to true weather reporting and questions.
I am both a snowboarder and snowmobiler. I was just wondering what the lake effect chances are looking like for this Friday night into Saturday. H85 temps are forecast to drop to between -8C & -10C late friday night/saturday morning. Although these are certainly marginal temps for lake effect, I would think it may be able to get something going for ski country is there isnt too much shear and given that the lake surface temp. is still around 37 degrees. What do you think Don?
There's some limited les potential Friday night & Saturday, but I'll get back to this a little later this afternoon--had to go to a meeting, and I'm behind on my analysis work.
Lake potential for Friday night & Saturday, even for ski country, looks inconsequential. Operational GFS is showing a definite trend toward more wintry temperatures again by next weekend, and the GFS ensembles show a similar, though slightly less impressive, trend. Snow potential with project wind alignments over the next 5-7 days not looking particularly promising.
Don-
I thought you would have more to say on this mornings unusial storms, and how they were not predicted.
yea I agree with last anonymous. Don were you in town to see these storms? You have to admit, as far as severe storms go for WNY, the storms early this morning were of some of the worst! And the fact that they happened in Jnuary makes is so strange! I also thought you would have more to say on how these storms came together... even though no one was caling for thunderstorms. I believe you forecasted a possible thundershower, which I think is lesser than an actual thunderstorm... but I could be wrong. This was another one of those WNY weather suprises!
Was I in town? Where do you think I live-Etobicoke??? Just kidding, Tom. As time allows this evening, I'll expand a little more on what happened this morning.
Some of you seem not to be comprehending posts from Don, MB, Mike or Lindsay. This blog is an 'extra' that the station has put up for our general information. Simply because you all may (or may not) have time on your hands to sit here all day long and check it every ten minutes, shouldn't translate to mean that those four professionals also have that kind of time. The reality is that they don't.
Don specifically stated he had a meeting and even if he didn't, they are NOT obligated to reply to your posts or questions each and every time. Were you expecting answers at 4 am?
They have other duties, that they get paid to do, and must do, that don't involve this blog. So please, stop DEMANDING that they answer you. Blogs are not 'live chats' taking place in real time. They're just words put there to be read and responded to whenever time permits.
As to 'lakeshadow', indeed you are attempting to 'forecast' and you honestly 'blitz this blog' with posts and info you've copied and pasted in from the other site you've keep mentioning as the gospel truth (it seems). That's not very polite. If you look at the times you've posted, many of your posts are a minute apart, like a rapid fire machine gun going off. That's not the purpose of this blog. The things you discuss on the other site, belong there, but it appears you are unable to engage anyone over there to chat with you, so you decided to do it here. Keep that site separate from this one please, for our sake.
You state you want someone (Don) to tell you where you've gone wrong, well sir (or madam)- based on the incessant posting you do here of largely incorrect information, you require a private tutor, something this site doesn't offer. Professional education (school) might be the way for you to go if you really want that. You are indeed attempting to 'forecast' weather using this site to do so.
I come here to visit the Ch. 4 Weather Blog and enjoy the healthy and sane discussions, and the educational aspects of this subject. I'd very much appreciate it if you would allow those of us who also are here for that reason, to do so in peace.
The early morning storms appeared to materialize out of nowhere and I honestly doubt even Mother Nature would be able to explain them to anyone, let alone issue a 'warning' at that unholy hour.
Don, MB, Mike and Lindsay, keep up the great work, you are making a difference to the majority of us, and we DO appreciate it.
FYI don said a thunderstorm is possible when the cold front crosses wnyduring the morning hour and i dont post alot because this bog used to be good but now they are people like LAKE SHADOW post inaccurate statements and say something about Earth quakes)) and btw don the gfs is hinting at pattern change after 18th what do u think about that and the next question is the wind direction are from sw during the cold outbreak around the 20th if this cold air is anticipated and come true and the winds from sw will that support a significant lake effect snow?
Ayuud we missed u where have u been?
sup Alex im studying for the math A test so thats why i dont post a lot and BTW thanks for Asking
Ayuud u are the future of this bloggers u should post more we missed u when u dont post they are crazy people like LAKE SHADOW who take over the blog by posting some stupid statements and insulting don
nice to see u again Keep Posting!!!!
woow!! people do really care about me in this blog thanx everyone whoasked about me after i study this test and take it i will post as i use to do
Mr. Don
Wow kissing bridge has taken a hit. But with the weather getting cooler things should get better. Wasn't this the case last year. I think it got colder around the 22nd of January last year or somehwere around there. Anyway theres a lot of winter left.
As for false info stuff, well I think thats settled, thats all I got to say about that.{Forest Gump}I have no idea how that got in there.
I hope winter comes back. another thing, is it true that it's very hard to have cold winters with la nina or el nino? It seems these past two years we've had either or. Maybe one year they will stop and winter will be good and cold. Ski resorts could use one.
marinecorps3008: On the question of el nino and la nina, the effects on our part of the country tend to vary with the strength of both of them. With a strong el nino (as in 1998), it's almost impossible to get a cold winter. A moderate el nino tends to leave a little more room for occasional storm systems, and weak el ninos have much less of an effect. A similar range of effects is found with la nina (but not identical). Weak la ninas do allow more frequent Arctic intrusions, especially when the NAO negative/cold phase occurs with greater regularity. Stronger la ninas (the current episode is moderate, leaning toward being stronger) also disrupt the polar outbreaks we experience, and tend to make them of short duration. Neutral conditions (neither el nino or la nina) can leave the door open for more Arctic outbreaks, again with some relation to the NAO, AO, and PNA.
Just about everything is affected by sea surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, all the way around the globe.
wow some of u guys r definitely troopers, staying up until 4 or 5 in the morning. just seeing the last frames of the radar, i could see that those storms meant business. definite bow echo caricature to them, and the winds!! i woke up around 430 probably when the winds were at their worst. i thought, man, this sounds a lot stronger than, say, 40 mph winds. and they were! gusts up to HURRICANE FORCE! i dont think anyone saw this coming, but weather around here is so unpredictable, that you just never know what trick mother nature has up her sleeve next. unfortunately, we didnt lose power, so i still had to go school today. gosh darn it y does niagara wheatfield never close? ne1 else feel my pain?
Just a technicality, but the only recorded hurricane force gust was at Rochester (75mph). The powerful gusts in our viewing area peaked at 69 mph at our Alden Neighborhood WeatherNet site, an estimated gust to 70 at Jamestown, and one post frontal gust at the NWS at 6:41am of 68 mph.
Dear Marybeth, seeing as you are the only person there who verifiably finished highschool, I will ask you. Please stop sugar coating the weather and start dealing with the real facts. Nasa has said on more than 3 occasions in the past 25 years that there is a dwarf star in a binary orbit around our own sun. It's written in at least 3 "bibles" if you will. Nasa has put the mathematics on the table. Anybody with a pencil can conclude that Planet X will arrive sometime in 2012. Why are you not sharing this with us? Why? Do you doubt NASA's findings? Do you need an actual rocket scientist to tell you that the changes in the climate are due to this approaching star? They did, you arent listening! If you think this is all pure rubbish then, why dont you say so? Forgive me but now I need to say something that may be offensive to you. Im sure it will be but here goes.
JUST because you chose to be a weather forecaster doesnt give you the right to be self righteous jerk. You have this irritating posture as if we all owe you something for choosing this miserable career path. It's not our fault ok? Yes you are struggling to make ends meet but heck, go get a second job what can I say? But for G_d's sake please tell the truth!! How is it that you make barely more than the kid who delivers my TV Guide and yet you wake up every morning with the intentions of lying to us all day. All day.. Yes.. All day!!!! How do any of you look in the mirror? Oh,wait.. I can tell by Don's hair that alot of you dont.. THAT'S NOT THE POINT!! Stop lying.. Just one day, one day I would like you all to tell us the truth. FOR THE ENTIRE DAY!!!
Nevermind Al Gore or what you can and can not tell us.. This is a matter of life or death. We need to know IF AND WHEN Planet X is going to arrive.. If you dont believe me? Watch the videos.. Believe me, you're not above learning something okay? Here are the links. Parts 1 thru 5..
http://youtube.com/watch?v=8S0bj76389U
http://youtube.com/watch?v=sjjrStDxTrc&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=W5TOmRD_V48&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=HNZIyfBChmA&feature=related
http://youtube.com/watch?v=Zero0Y6TCA8&feature=related
I would welcome the opportunity to debate this matter with you.
Perhaps we could meet down at Mothers. That way Don and I can spar!!
Remember, TELL THE TRUTH!!!
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