Weekend Update
Lake Snow will begin to set up south of Buffalo by Saturday morning, and then settle further south into Ski Country & the srn tier, as the boundary layer flow shifts from SWly to Wly. The duration of this cold flow will lead to moderate to hvy lake snow accumulations in the hilly terrain. Rates per hour will not be that impressive, because the air will still be relatively dry. But the snow to water ratio will be high due to the cold temperatures, and the duration will allow a few locations to reach 1 foot or more. However, slight shifts in the band's location and intensity will leave most locations in Ski Country with somewhat lesser amounts. Heaviest accumulations will tend to be on west-facing slopes. Once the wind veers Wly, a few inches may also accumulate in nrn Niag & Orleans Cos. The metro area and immediately adjacent suburbs, once the Wly flow sets up, will have little accumulation, with just occasional snow shwrs. The wind chill will range from 4 to 8 Saturday, near 0 by late Saturday night, and 0 to -10 by Sunday morning. A general snowfall on Tuesday may bring us just a few inches accumulation. Temps will moderate somewhat after the weekend, but remain below normal most of next week.
Gametime conditions at Foxboro: Temps fall from low 20s to upper teens. NW 15-30, diminishing later in the game. Green Bay: Gametime 5 to 0. NW 10 WC: -10.
Gametime conditions at Foxboro: Temps fall from low 20s to upper teens. NW 15-30, diminishing later in the game. Green Bay: Gametime 5 to 0. NW 10 WC: -10.
posted by Don Paul at
11:46 PM
73 Comments:
Lake snow looks pretty well organized all around the Great Lakes Region at 2:30am. A rather large mass of snow seems to be heading in our direction. If it holds together, I think all of WNY would see some snow at least.
It looks like i am almost dead center for this storm.. So erie. wyoming, N Catt, N Chat that usually means i get a fair share of snow here in Arcade/Yorkshire.. I wish everyone was wrong about the dryness of air..
This is the first Major Lake effect snow in these parts.. Most of the other snows we have gotten down here have been off a NW flow with multi band effects..
Looks as though this one will be a one band event even with some ocilation i am hoping for a foot or more..
hey don i woke up and i heard thunder and lighting and when i went to outside there was some very heavy snow coming down and visibilites was down to about 0.5
2 inches on the ground
btw u didnt mention anything about thunder and lighting
correction it is now 3.2 inches of snow here in west side of buffalo and the snow is coming at a good clip
We are receiving moderate to heavy snow here in Northern Orchard Park, near the West Seneca town line...have already accumulated about 3-4 inches....Lindsey, if you are still around, is there a chance the band will stay localized for a while, or will it start to shift south soon?...thanks
Few inches , snowing pretty good so far here in Hamburg. 25 degrees.
Question for Team Weather at Wivb: Whats up with that pretty big storm down south , may that hit us or will it pass by , full knowning the unknown factor..
From the homestead… awoke up to at least a 3” snowfall and drifts up to 6” in the driveway at 8 AM, so contrary to the Buffalo NWSFO 6 AM write-up, this “brief burst” band, though it has been somewhat cellular in nature, has produced periods of S+ for a couple hours, but it does seem to be on the move toward the south. Models still indicate that the incoming air mass will be quite dry, so still skeptical about widespread major snowfall accumulation across ski country /So. Tier for the weekend. But, because of the large snow to water ratios, where the snow does fall, it could add up over a lengthy period as Don alluded to last night.
hey Mike where is Homestead located at and what was the thunder and lighting with this LES
Ayuud, NE Erie Co., let's leave it at that...thunder was result of enhanced lift in the atmosphere, convective in nature, ahead of the front. This also resulted in the heavier bursts of snow in the band which has now cleared most of northern Erie Co., judging by the 88-D Doppler Radar loop. Front has cleared my location, wind has now gone more W and snow has ended.
Snow has stopped here in Northern Orchard Park....looks like the band is moving south as predicted....put down a good 4-5 inches though.....hunkering down now for the cold!!
Almost 2.5 inches in Lancaster as I log on following some morning shoveling. It is tapering off and not very windy. Ayuud must not watch Wake-Up, otherwise he would know what community Mike Cejka lives in. We should start up a guess where Mike lives contest to test everyone's Wake-Up Trivia knowledge. Then again.... you never know when an over-zealous weather watcher crosses over the line from enthusiastic blogger to stalker status! LOL!!!! :)
Charlie in Lancaster
Around 5 inches here in cheektowaga/amherst border. Drifts up to 7-8 inches, not to bad eh. going to eden today to snomobile with my girlfriend, they got 10 the other day, another 6+ today, Awesome conditions, then snowboarding at holiday tomorrow there getting 12+, snow its in plentiful suppply woohoO!
I wonder if we will see a special WX statement concerning "wind chill" from the NWS. This aspect will be the major weather element for all of the region Sunday, espeically with 15-25 mph wind speeds, whereas the lake snow will be localized in the ski country and possibly Niagara/Orleans.
wow u guys got it wrong i was just asking his location if it was in Northern Erie or Southern Erie
And Charlie From Lancaster im not a stalker as i stated above i was just seeing if he live in northern erie or southern erie because he had some high snow totals so Again Im not A Stalker!!!!!!!!!!
Mike Did u get offended By me asking where Homestead located at if yes im sorry
Love that moving radar loop image on the special "red alert" section you folks activate in times of weather events! Looks even better when you click and enlarge the image. Way to go Weather Watch 4 Team!
Charlie
Ayuud,
You will find that most of the WNY TV and radio personalities live in the Amherst/ Clarence area.
Ayuud.....Wow is right! I left a LOL and smiley face at the end of my post! I also suggested a Wake-Up Trivia contest. Geesh. Maybe you should get some sleep Ayuud instead of staying up all night watching the flakes and measuring the snowfall. With the intensity of some posters I thought a little levity might be fun. I think I'll "blog-off" and go play in the snow with some folks who know how to have some fun!
Charlie
Hey to the last Anomynous I dont care where they Live at i was only seeing if homestead was in northern erie or southern erie
Charlie In Lancaster sorry i didnt see the smiley but u know u got on my nerve when u said This Statement"Then again.... you never know when an over-zealous weather watcher crosses over the line from enthusiastic blogger to stalker status! LOL!!!! :)"
i thought u were serious about ur words but hey it was a misunderstanding and i apoligize
Aight dude...
The location question isn't a big deal...not everyone on the air lives in northern Erie, a fair number live in the city and even southern Erie Co.
Lets Forget About Location Everyone is free and can live whatever place he or she wants
Back On The Weather))))))))))))))
Mike
Do U see any big storms coming to our region for the next couple weeks
Mike I see this weather watch has been extended into monday morning. Do u think the monday morning commute will be tricky? Will the lake effect still be in effect?
Still snowing here in Orchard park where I live. It's not as bad, though. I walked into my school at around 8AM and left at 10AM and there was about four inches of snow covering the pavement! (whereas it was shoveled before.)
This isn't the storm we were supposed to get later today is it?
-Thanks!
Whoa! I take that back, it's getting pretty bad now.
I do not see any big storms this week...looks like what lake effect does develop, will be persistent over the ski country of So. Erie Co., mainly Orchard Park So’ward, into southern Wyoming and parts of Chaut./Catt. Co's. Again, dry air and severity of cold air mass will most likely result in very localized multiple bands of snow capable of producing heavier snow amounts, but this does not mean that everyone in that area will have heavy accumulation. I suppose AM commute could be tricky especially south of O.P. Monday, if not just because of snowfall but also some drifting in open areas.
Winds will shift more SW toward Tuesday in advance of a weak disturbance passing through the Great Lakes. This will result in a northward shift to the remaining lake snow.
Leading edge of band which swept thru metro Buffalo now advancing into Wyoming/Catt. Co's to the SE. A secondary band has formed in its wake, parallel to the Erie lake shore into the So'towns. The orientation of this band should definitely become more W. to E. and maybe even a little WNW to ESE by later this afternoon. As the colder air deepens, the band will break into multi-bands with the heaviest accum. O.P. So'ward.
Signing off now...daughter's basketball game is coming up!
Coincidentally, I woke up around 540 this morning, and i just looked outside the window to see if anything was going on. i was counting on nothing, but HOLY COW! the snow was coming down at such a FEROCIOUS rate, it had to be at least 3 inches per hour up here in wheatfield. it was absolutely nuts. the wind was blowing, the snow was coming down extremely hard, and it looked like a mini snowstorm. i went to turn away, and what happens? IT GETS HEAVIER! i swear, the flakes were so huge, coming down so fast. we got a quick inch or 2 just from about 30 to 45 minutes of a very heavy snow. not getting nething right now, but im hoping that lake effect from ontario will affect us and we will get enough to cover the ground so i can go ouside and enjoy the winter scenery! exciting scene this morning as well, hoping we are going to get some more accumulating snow soon.
by the way, how much do you predict wheatfield and the surrounding niagara falls suburbs are going to get in, say, the next 24 to 48 hours? do we have better chance of at least some snow showers or periods of persistent lake effect snow?
i'm beginning to see a band of lake effect snow develop over northern niagara and orleans counties. where do you expect this band to go, and do you think there will be any heavy snowfall rates within the band itself, granted it develops further?
just tuning in.WHY would Ayuud ask someone else about where they live.
Thats a little strange hmm..
Don, I have a question:
Should I bring my tomatoes in tonight? I heard there is supposed to be big frost tonight.
hahaha! The growing season never ends in WNY!
Warning downgraded to advisory, don't worry northtowners this might not be that big of a storm.
that would be for so. erie, wyoming. warning still in effect for cat., chataqua counties.
***There has been a change in the LES warning for S. Erie and Wyoming Co's. -It has been downgraded to a LES ADVISORY. There is also a *Wind Chill ADVISORY for the South towns/ Ski Country. LES has weakened quite a bit. It is expected to become somewhat stronger later tonight, but this will not be a huge LES event by any means. Snow amounts could reach 8-12"+ in the warned areas. The next chance for snow after this current event will come Monday night into Tuesday where we could see 2-3" across all of WNY.
Atlanta got anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of snow today... And Myrtle Beach SC. could see 1-3 inches of snow tonight. They are having a field day with snow in their neck of the woods! The last time Atlanta and Myrtle beach saw measureable snow was in 2002... and that was only an inch.
Bundle up tonight! The low will be anywhere from -12 to 6 degrees across WNY! Burrrr!
LES likely to add up a bit in N. Niagara, and Orleans Co's tonight. LES could add up anywhere from 2-6 inches in these areas by early Monday morning.
I like the new "storm links" section on wivb.com! Every time you fine tune it, it gets even better!
Any updates from weather watch 4?
How are things looking after we're through with this current LES event? Any more snow on the way for WNY?
Lake Snow Warning cancelled for So. Erie and Wyoming counties and replaced with a Lake Snow ADVISORY til 6am Monday. Lake Snow WARNING continues until 6am Monday for Chautauqua, Cattaraugus counties where over a foot of snow will likely add up between now and the start of the week. I believe the highest snow totals will be across extreme so. Erie, and Wyoming cos. and the northern half of Chautauqua and Catt. counties. Weaker lake snows will be found near the Lake Ontario shoreline through the period. Cold enough for everyone into tomorrow. Wind Chill ADVISORY issued for areas south of Buffalo from 6am-noon tomorrow...but don't be fooled, everyone's going to notice the bone chilling cold this weekend. For snow lovers, widespread snow on the way for Tuesday with another clipper pushing through.
Mery Beth How is that clipper looking for tuesday and will there be any lake enhancement because i see SW winds thanks from your Fan
Bob
Instead of wondering what is going to happen next , why dont we all report what is happening were we are at. I am in north collins and its coming down very hard. I got home around 4pm and my car now has at least 2 inches on it. At 8pm now its still coming down at a very good rate just not a lot of wind.
Its already 11 degrees here in Amherst, and it will probaly get colder as the night goes on!
Hey everyone at ch4 my frends family and myself are all avid snowmobilers here in central erie county and we are all getting discouraged about this years winter with no snow up here. Looking for a little positive reinforcement for some accumulating snowfall for the central and northern erie county areas.
Thanks All
Bob: At this point, I do not see any real lake enhancement for the metro area on Tuesday. This is a "synoptic scale" event which should trigger a widespread, mainly light snowfall. If there's anything more that develops, I'll let you know.
Southtowner: It's only natural for everyone to wonder what's going to happen with local weather. Thank you for your report, and if any of you bloggers are getting snow, we're always happy to hear from you, too!
Ru4Real: Have wheels, must travel! Areas not too far from you will get a healthy dose of snow between now and Monday morning. It's the beauty of the ole Lake Effect. Why not try out the snow turf to the south in So. Erie or Catt. county?
Mery BETH
Temps Are Now down to 9F As i type right now And there is clear skies DO you think will get into or near the zero degree mark because i use to hear You Saying"If there is clear skies,,,Temps will drop down Easily it's like taking a blanket from You" Now i realize what you mean about that statement
Its 8.7F here in Amherst currently. Burrrrr!
It's 14 degrees with clear skies and no snow in the Village of Lewiston.
I LIVE ON THE LAKE-FRONT IN BRANT. I FIND IT TRULY AMAZING TO LOOK OUT AND SEE THE DUNKIRK POWER STATION LIGHTS MANY MILES AWAY THROUGH CLEAR SKIES KNOWING THAT THE RADAR SHOWS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW JUST INLAND. I HAVE HAD ONLY HAD A DUSTING OF SNOW TODAY AND NOTHING SINCE NOON. IT'S 17 DEGREES, BREEZY AND WAVES OF ABOUT TWO FEET.
larry
im in the village of north collins and we have been getting lots of snow, since 4pm we have had about 4 inches on top of what we had, strange that we are only a few miles away but so different, but that is LES!!
temps down to 5f here in buffalo Mery beth with clear skies i think the temps will be in the minus sign when i wake up tommorow
Thanks for your reports, Bloggers. As of 10:45pm, coldest temp I can find is 5F in Warsaw. A few minus readings overnight are not out of the question. Batista, you are correct about falling temps when there are clear skies. However, for a perfect setup, you need light winds. That's not the case tonight..winds are gusty, and that mixes up the air, oftentimes preventing the temps from tumbling super deep. Still, it's bone-chilling cold enough. I think it's a shock to the body for some folks with having highs in the 60s not that long ago.
I HERE ON THE SNOW ADVISORY IT SAYS lake snow will shift north across Hamburg and op to marrow after noon or late morning dumping 2-4 during the day and 1-3 during the night. YOUR THOUGHTS MB????-aDAM FROM HAMBURG
Mary Beth--
Do you think you can start a new thread on the general snow expected Tuesday, and the LES to follow? If not, can you give a description of what we can expect in upcoming day's (Tue)? How much snow at this point do you see WNY getting Tue? What do you know about the LES to follow? Will it be a south towns/ ski country event again? Any bigger weather events in the near distance you could hint at? ThAnKs MB!
Affin: Status quo lake snow. There is not all that much movement expected with the snowband that's currently in progress on Sunday. Your area may see a few inches, but the heavier LES is to the south.
Adam: I will start a new thread, but not until Sunday afternoon when I get in. We still have a lake snow event in progress along with frigid wind chills. One story at a time. Meantime, another cold front pushes through on Tuesday, giving us a general, mainly light snowfall. I'm not expecting big amounts at this point. However, it appears we go back into a semi-arctic northwest flow on Wednesday. If this takes shape, I would expect more lake snow for so.towns/ ski country and the southern tier. More to follow...
MIKE OR MB - THERE IS AN ICE SHELF BUILDING ON THE LAKESHORE. WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF THE LAKE FREEZING THIS MONTH?
MB could you explain why there is such a well organized heavy band of lake effect off lake ont. and such a weak band off lake erie. We are getting rooked here in WNY. Its really piling up on the other side of the state.
I was just out at the lake at Athol Springs and the ice is starting to build up. Winds are high and so are the waves. My question: Will the winds continue until Monday and is there a danger of the combination of winds, waves and ice climbing higher and impacting the homes near Hoaks and Dock of the Bay area?
Bob
It looks as though this next snow event expected on Tuesday will be a bit more than first thought, and we could be looking at more snow on into Wednesday.
Hey MB. Live in Hamburg and super dark clouds moving in. It looks as if the lake effect snow is shifting north. Whats your thoughts MB and it also seems as if its resteathing????? Adam from Hamburg
MB also were i live around the Hamburg area it looks as if a secound band of les is setting up and intensyfing.Your thoughts thanks. Adam from Hamburg
I'm calling for a nice warm-up looking out about 10 days. Temps will be 30 warmer than they are right now...
That should do it for the lake snows for the month.. We will end Jan with just a little snow.
You heard it here first on channel 2.. oh i mean..hmm what channel is this?
If anyone misses snow and storms, come to Springville. We have been getting it all afternoon and evening. If it isn't a foot, I am surprised, and there is no sign of stopping.
Mike: Good question. The reason why there is such a heavy band of lake snow on the eastern shore of Lake Ontario is because a due westerly wind has the ENTIRE span of Lake Ontario to cross over, while there's a much shorter fetch off of Lake Erie. Get out a map and you can compare the orientation of the two lakes. It's quite interesting indeed.
Larry: The chance of Lake Erie freezing over entirely this month is small. While we're in the midst of a polar plunge now, overall temps are going to moderate a few times and perhaps even a slight warming trend may occur by month's end. However, ice is certainly forming and accumulating these days with the cold air in place.
Bob: Winds are expected to diminish into tomorrow, then pick up again on Tuesday with the next system pushing in. I don't believe the homes you're talking about are in immediate danger. Top wind gusts this evening are averaging up to near 30mph.
Adam Afin: As I mentioned last night in my previous comment, it's "status quo snow:...where it is now, is where it's been and where it's staying overnight. The lake snow band may meander slightly north or south, but I don't believe it will reach you in Hamburg. Right now the band is concentrated between Gowanda/Little Valley and Springville/Ellicottville. Tricky travel on portions of the 219 and Rte. 62 near South Dayton.
meterologists....have not heard one word about pets left out in the cold. It would only take a second of weather broadcast time to remind pet owners of the dangers to animals left outside to endure the brutal winds as well as the cold. You are their voice!!! Thank-you
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home