Weekend Update
A weak trough of low pressure will begin to develop Sct Lt Snow Shwrs during Saturday, with only spotty minor accumulations, mainly in the hills. Those snow shwrs will continue overnight, with some slick spots developing, but no heavy duty shoveling. Lingering flurries should wind down early Sunday, and clouds may finally thin later in the day. Ski conditions will be Spectacular! Moreover, winds will be lighter on Saturday and close to calm at times Saturday night & Sunday, making outdoor activities much more comfortable. Temps will make a move toward 40 on a Partly Sunny Monday. On Tuesday, in advance of a cold front, temps should reach the low 40s and winds will pick up. Sct Shwrs will become more numerous toward evening. A fast moving intense storm will zip across the nrn Great Lakes Tuesday night, and in the wake of that cold front there may be a burst of snow for awhile, along with Strong or High Winds. (A caveat: The Canadian and European models are not as strong with this storm as is the GFS.) While accumulations will not be especially heavy (the storm will be largely cut off from Gulf moisture), more significant lake snow will develop by late night across Ski Co on a cold Wly flow, and continue into Wed. There may also be lake snow N & NE of Buffalo, closer to Lk Ontario, with lighter snow shwrs Wed in the metro area. Winds will begin to diminish later in the day. But Wednesday, due to the wind chill and temps only in the low/mid 20s, will feel like midwinter again.
Thursday will be more tranquil. On Friday, we'll have to watch for a storm system coming out of the srn plains. The last 2 runs of the GFS take this system further to the east of us than earlier runs, and keep this southern jetstream feature from phasing with the nrn branch of the jetstream until it's out to sea. If that verifies, it wouldn't be a major storm for us. If the srn branch and nrn branch of the jet did phase, the storm would deepen sooner, and bring us rain or snow with greater amounts. Of course, it's still quite far out.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO CONTRIBUTE YOUR EXHIBIT IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.
Thursday will be more tranquil. On Friday, we'll have to watch for a storm system coming out of the srn plains. The last 2 runs of the GFS take this system further to the east of us than earlier runs, and keep this southern jetstream feature from phasing with the nrn branch of the jetstream until it's out to sea. If that verifies, it wouldn't be a major storm for us. If the srn branch and nrn branch of the jet did phase, the storm would deepen sooner, and bring us rain or snow with greater amounts. Of course, it's still quite far out.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO CONTRIBUTE YOUR EXHIBIT IDEAS TO THE BWEC THREAD BELOW.
posted by Don Paul at
10:23 PM
27 Comments:
i agree with u don about this next weekend storm the models are in their typical CHA CHA CHA that means they cant stand at one solution as u said in your post earlier models have the storm track across the ohio valley but later model run suggest the storm will farther east from our viewing area but there is a possibility that the later model runs may change the storm track and make it a Lake Cutter because that the trend most of the storms this winter so far
No, most storms have passed out to sea, brushing or missing the east coast. You didn't notice them that much, because they didn't give any excuse to hype things up on our fun blog....
Oh man. All Im going to say is that Im wishing for a good shot of snow for Friday. I hope this storm blows up, and comes right over WNY! I would rather have the precip in the form of snow rather than rain though! Keep your fingers crossed snow lovers!!
Well, Sean--if it came "right over WNY" we'd be in the warmer part of its circulation and get mainly rain--so you want it to jog a little east (though not so far east as the current GFS shows).
Ok, I can understand how that works. I hope it jogs a little east, to give us a dose of snow! It wont be winter for too much longer in these parts. We could use a little more snow before its all said and done! Thanks Don!!
Don I Like How The Gfs Ensembles trys to form the storm it is hinting at a weak low pressure moving across the west coast and combines with another on the gulf coast and then tracks the storm across the Tennesse Valley then into New Jersay Now If That Track Holds We Have A Shot At Significant Amount Of Snow But Lately as u said in your comment most recent storm for the past couple weeks tend to pass out to the sea in that scenario we wont get Anything!!!!!!!!!!!
One more last question don.....
According to the CDC's description of the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model (GSDM), the GWO generally takes 15-80 days to complete its cycle. The CDC website explains:
The four primary phases of the GWO are described below, along with generally cold season (November-March) probable weather impacts for the USA. The GWO recurrence interval, or "time it takes to make a circuit", ranges from a broad 15-80 days.
Given that there are 8 Phases in the cycle, this would suggest that the GWO takes between around 2-10 days to go through each cycle. Assuming an average of 6 days, one would likely see the GWO move into the transitional Phase 5 within a few days. An important caveat is in order: the timing concerns averages, only. The GWO lingered in Stages 3 and 4 from around December 10, 2007 through January 3, 2008. Phases 3 and 4 are generally warm ones for the East. It will be interesting to see what the lag is between when the GWO moves into Phases 3 and 4 and the actual weather that occurs downstream in response
Would'nt That Mean Afterward, using the same lag, by the time the GWO moves into Phase 6 around the end of January, one might expect to see a transition toward colder weather in the East perhaps beginning around February 10 +/- a few days. One would first begin to see the cold anomalies appear in the central United States consistent with Stage 2 of the GWO as per the CDC description of the GSDM noted above.
In addition, after spending 13 days in Phase 7, the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) shifted into Phase 8. Toward the latter part of the first week or the beginning of the second week in February, the MJO could be moving into Phase 2. If so, that could also feature the development of below normal height anomalies in eastern North America.
So Is there any Possibility by Later February we are Looking at Greenland Block Because Thats When LA-NINA Starts To Weaken And As Per Your Forecast For This Winter You Said WE Start With Cold Air Then Finish With Cold ,,In The Middle We Will get Some Cold Air But It wont Stay to Much Long...
It is quiet... too quiet... I'll try to get things started...
Unlike the GFS, the European Model seems to indicate the POTENTIAL for metro area lake effect on Wednesday... this according to the NWS.
Chris, I thought I too might have seen a more southwesterly flow on Wednesday, but according to the discussion it's suppossed to be a west flow, meaning the typical areas, southern erie, wyoming, chautauqua, and cattaragus counties get the lake effect snow. It would be cool if northern areas got it.
ok nevermind the discussion said the NWS isn't sure about the Lake effect it could northeast of the lakes, or east.
As of late this evening, light snow showers are beginning to wind down across the region. A weak ridge of high pressure will build later tonight and tomorrow, giving us a dry finish to the weekend. A noticeable warm up is still in the works with highs pushing into the mid 40s by Tuesday along with plain rain and the potential for thundershowers. Yes, it's another January thaw coming our way over the next couple of days. Yet, another winter roller coaster ride is moving in by Wednesday with snow showers and lake snow followed by ap uphill swing in temps by the end of the week. La Nina's global weather pattern is holding tight!
Can we expect quite a wind event with the change from mild to cold Tuesday night into Wednesday? I know the same system has prompted winter storm watches for northwestern ontario, with the risk of blizzard conditions. Environment Canada suggests this front will intensify as it moves into that region.
How much rain Tuesday for WNY and should we prepare for a wind event when the front passes?
I appreciate it is early, but just curious what models are currently showing.
Thanks
HI BARRIE
Didn't A Front Like This Passed When WE Were Transitioning to cold After Lot Of Mild Days Then The When The Front Passed We Expricenced across our region High Winds What Even Interesting Is That THe Front Passed On Teusday And this Next Front Is Scheduled To Cross Our Region On Tuesday WOOW,LA Nina means repeating weather Events WE Really Need A GreenLand Block So the cold Air could stay across our area long enough
Hey Ayuud
I believe you are correct. Mind you, this warm spell won't be as dramatic from a temperature standpoint. The earlier January thaw brought our region thunderstorms on a Monday afternoon and then heavy rain late Tuesday night into the wee hours of Wednesday, and then we got the powerful winds around 4 or 5 am that knocked out power to a wide area of south-central Ontario.
I was just wondering, based on what technology and models are available, if we can expect some heavy winds when the front blows through. I notice the CH 4 team has indicated risk of thunderstorms possibly late Tuesday.
Time will tell.
Ayudd why are you obcessed with the snow and cold? Wait until you start driving in it and getting your heating bills. Youll hate it. I personally like it because I snowboard, iceskate, snowmobile, etc..If you dont even do anything in it, except stay home, why do you like it?
Any chance of Lake Effect hitting the area on Weds? If so where will it be hitting and how strong?
to Anoymnous i like the snow and cold because im a skiier and i do that every weekends even though i hate cold when it is windy thats when you start to hate cold but without cold we wont get snow So Think!!!!!!!
Hey Barrie Just Checking The 12z gfs soundings and it is bringing sustained winds of 30-35 MPH With gusts over 50 Mph so i think there will be another wind event across our area as we have so far this winter whenever a cold front crosses our region it has brought high or strong winds so one would expect high or strong winds on wednesday
I'll leave the forecasting to the experts! But I'll continue to ask questions. Environment Canada has our region in rain by late evening Monday, possibly beginning as freezing rain. Then rain on Tuesday.
As for Ayuud's over-fascination with cold and snow----sounds like he's just like many of us on the blog who marvel at mother nature. Glad to hear you ski as well Ayuud. I downhill, but really enjoy crossing country. It was kind of presumptious to assume you stay indoors all day. Glad to read Anonymous also enjoys all that winter has to offer in terms of outdoor activity.
Driving in snow and paying the heating bills are some of the drawbacks of winter, but it is always best to find the silver lining even during the coldest months!
Hey Barrie
Most Weekends I GO Skiing Down ON Holiday Valley Or Kissing Bridge But I Sometimes Benefit From The Cold Because We Sometimes Have Days With Below Freezing Thats when i use my Turbo Crystal Snow Making Machine To Bury My Backyard(Imagine That) With About Three Feet Of Snow Then we start to make the slides me and my dad so my little brother and sister enjoy it and me too But I Use That Machine Twice A Year Because It Consumes A Lot Of Water And The Water Bill Dramaticly Increases so i wont advise someone to use that machine due to the water it consumes(75,000 gallons )but anyways canada has a great skiing holiday slope in Whistler, Canada i once visited it and it was by far the best skiing resort
Barrie1: From the data I've seen so far, this may indeed be a significant wind event for you in Ontario. The strongest dynamics for this front are located in your part of the continent for that time period. Today's run has changed somewhat from yesterday, so nothing's written in stone just yet. Remember a "watch" means conditions are favorable, whereas a "warning" is more imminent in that the storm is occurring and it's heading for a certain area. Still, this will be a windy weather maker for all of us both here in WNY and in Southern Ontario.
That/those storm/s in the southwest look pretty big , let me guess it will miss us..
http://www.weather.gov/
Thank you for responding Mary Beth. I'll be watching closely over the next few days.
man i hope that the models turn out to be true and that we get hammered.i also hope that the storm explodes and we get at least a foot.I hope a major sw flow sets up and just hammers buffalo and the north towns.Who am i kidding the models will change and we wont get anything ......like always!
Anonymous: There is the chance of some lake effect on Wednesday. However, if the winds are too strong they may tear apart any snowbands that develop. Still, general snow showers are in the forecast as the cold front pushes through late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Winds may gust as high as 50mph in some spots.
updates on Tuesday night and friday's storm? accuweather (what a misnomer sometimes) is calling for 3 to 6 inches tuesday night...
Hi mets....NWS discussion for today is mentioning that Tuesday night / Wednesday morning could have similar atmospheric conditions that we had a few weeks back when we had the high wind storm...my question is this....although there does not seem to be a lot of moisture in the system, and wind shear will also be a factor, could we expect a period of wind driven snow, creating white out conditions, during the overnight and for the morning drive Wednesday?...I know it may not add up to much as for as accumulation, but could travel become difficult during this time due to visibility issues?...thoughts?....
Greetings to friends and family in Buffalo, I came to the Milwaukee area to work for a few weeks and want to give a hats off to street crews everywhere in WNY. As some may know that this area has had more snow than thier seasonal average just in the month of December. They have no ideal what to do with all the snow. Yesterday it was sunny and in the 30's. While driving around I encountered streets that appeared plowed only to find a 18" drop off further down the road where thr pavement is exposed than having to climb out of it. I'm luckly to have a truck. Every where you go around here there is a problem with moving it out of the way or just finishing it off. So be glad folks that we live in an area that can deal with the snow removal may it not always be to the speed we want. We get it done right
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