Winter Weather Comin' Back into Town
A more wintry weather pattern is set to unfold as we head into next weekend. Late afternoon guidance suggesting a cold front teaming up with a Nor'Easter pushing through Thursday into Friday with some general snow and deeper cold air to follow. Higher potential for localized lake snows to develop next weekend. This colder flow may stick around for some time to follow. ..great news for snow lovers and skiers alike. Still have to keep in mind latest ENSO discussion from the Climate Prediction Center keeps La Nina alive through the remainder of the winter season. This hints at more of a roller-coaster winter season overall, including arctic shots and warmer than average periods as we've seen thus far.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
9:26 PM
51 Comments:
I suppose thats some good news. It has not, and does not feel like winter in Buffalo.
Anon: I am certain that many other longtime WNYers share your sentiments on winter weather. More seasonal temps are heading our way as early as Monday with light snow/wet snow in the forecast. Meantime, if you like it mild, enjoy it tomorrow on Sunday, because after that, the roller coaster is heading downhill! :-)
MB,
Granted it is far, far away, (with much chance for change), but any indication that LES will set up over Ski Country in time for next weekend?
-Matt
Matt, I cannot guarantee anything at this time, since lake effect is a microscale event and the timing is far off. However, in my early best educated guess from the data I've seen, chances are with an arctic flow coming into town next weekend, winds (West and NW) may indeed be favorable for lake snows to set up across ski country. Again, still an early call and much depends how the weather pattern evolves/changes this week. More to follow...
Thanks MB for giving it an early best guess... my snow, skiing, snowmobiling withdrawal is starting to get the better of my usual scientific patience.
-Matt
Do you see this next "cold blast" as being our coldest temps of the season thus far? I don’t ever remember a stretch of two weeks in the middle of January with no snow and green grass, and mild temps. I can’t stress enough that sooner or later, we will get our fair share of snow before the season is through. And most likely it will come all at once and cause school closings and maybe some problems... that’s usually how it works here in WNY lol. We ether get close to nothing, or we get a whole lot, there really isn’t any “in-between” lol. We’ll have to wait and see what next week has in store for us!
hey mary beth
dont u think the NWS a little bit rushed on the winter strom warning for Nyc because i think the mix have been the case all winter in the city area
give me your prediction
Bob
i watch ur shows online and u guys do a great job in weather forecasting
Sunday AM Update:
Some better news for snow lovers this week as a more wintry pattern will set up across WNY. An area of low pressure will move into the picture tonight generating a light snowfall across WNY tonight and in the coming days. Precip will begin as a wintry mix this evening especially close to the lakeshore but changeover to all snow after midnight. We should see anywhere from a trace - 2 inches overnight. Tomorrow the snow showers will continue. An additional 1-3 inches is likely to fall, with the higher end of that range falling in Ski Country due to lake enhancement. Some additional light accumulation will fall Monday night and into Tuesday. We have another chance for snow on Friday and a BIG cool down. Temps by next Sat will remain in the high teens for daytime high's. It'll finally feel like January out there!
Hey MB, I know this is hard to tel or even if itll hapen but do you see any possible signs of lake effect snow????? Also if a event were to acurr do you see the wind dirrection shifting the lake snow to buffalo. I live in the north western side of Hamburg but i wouldnt expect you to know this but could you take a long shot.Thanks MB.- Adam from Hamburg
hey lindsay
is there a possibility of a big Artic outbreak because the gfs is constantly showing extreme cold outbreak
Bob...
Things are turning much colder by the end of next week. Friday we'll have high's in the mid 20's but on Saturday daytime high's will only remain in the teens. Overnight low's will hover easily in the single digits by next weekend as well. So yes...we'll have some arctic air by next weekend!
Adam Afino: Lake snow potential will increase dramatically next weekend into the following week as deeper cold air pushes in. It is way too early to tell specific wind directions that pinpoint exactly where lake snow will occur. However, I can tell you that you that the probabilities will shoot up fast once the polar express arrives. Meantime, there will be a general light snow/wet snowfall later tonight and tomorrow that's associated with a short wave crossing through the Ohio Valley and Great lakes. Travel may turn slippery across these parts late tonight and tomorrow. A more important coastal system will have most of the dynamics, so from New Jersey to Southern New England, that's where the big weather story will be over the next 24 hours.
Bob from the Big Apple: I believe the NWS is right on the money issuing the warning for NYC. While there is still model uncertainty, the latest guidance is trending father west and slower with the coastal system. If this indeed occurs, it will have more interaction with the short wave that's crossing through the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the chance of heavy snow picks up big time from New Jersey, to NYC into Southern New England. With the mass volume of people living in that region, it is a responsibility to advise the public.
The NWS mentions the possibility of another low coming up the East Coast later this week when a cold front moves through. They also mention much model discrepancy over the impact on our area.
MB, I realize I'm skipping storms, but when you have a chance, I would look forward to hearing your perspective, along with what discrepancy the models are showing. Thanks for keeping us informed...
-Matt
Matt: As I mentioned yesterday, there is a cold front along with another coastal low that will potentially team up Thursday/Friday. There are also signs that a secondary low will develop behind this system and drag in polar air over the weekend. However, models evolve and change over the course of time. Today, the trend is still there for this to occur, but it's still too early to get specific and definite.
Noaa : 3-6 inches.
weather channel (local ,Hamburg) 3-6 inches
Wider map show 6-12" inches by Tues am
[url=http://]www.weather.com/?from=gn_logo_welcome[/url]
Hmm , Maybe we will get a good ole snow storm next weekend...
**The link given above is from December 15, 2007. Just thought it should be known.**
Hello CH 4 weather team/bloggers
I put a posting on the previous title that featured pictures, but since there was just my comment and another, thought I'd alert everyone again to a piece in the Toronto Star from the weekend. It's titled 'Storm Porn' and raises questions about tv networks that might be hyping the forecast for ratings and ad revenue.
It is obviously not an issue at CH 4, but worth a read if you are interested.
www.torontostar.com
Once on main page, click on LIVING at the top.
If Don, MB, Lindsay or Mike have a look at--might be curious about what you think. I know Don you had a right to take issue with a recent piece in the Buffalo News that slammed local weather coverage as 'hyped.'
Cheers.
barrie1...I read the article. Not too much to say about it, since it seems to pertain mainly to Canadian tv which I don't view that often. In much of the U.S., more of the hype comes from the newsroom than from genuine mets, since mets know the dangers of crying wolf, and newsroom producers may not be aware of the uncertainties in a given forecast.
Don..
Agree with you about the hype from the newsroom. Just the facts, please. I can't think of any Canadian networks that get carried away about forecasting storms. Our Weather Network puts everything in perspective. And when I watch it, I actually learn something. What's wrong with bringing the science into it if it's explained so the average person can understand it?
I think we see the hype from CNN when they cover a hurricane and have someone on screen during the strong winds. Of course, it isn't forecasting then. It's just play by play.
And what's this about not watching alot of Canadian tv? No CBC? No Little Mosque on the Prairie(LOL).
Have a good day.
Well, I do watch CBC from time to time (and not just for the racy movies!), but my viewing habits aren't frequent enough to comment all that much on local Canadian stations or the Canadian Weather Network.
Some time ago, I'd suggested to the CBC that they hire more Environment Canada mets to shore up both agencies' budgets, which have been slashed. The Brits have had huge success in bringing some British Met Office mets into national prominence on the BBC. Years ago, the BBC featured only weather readers, but not any longer It's increased their ratings/revenues, and helped the excellent Met Office as well.
Never heard back from anyone at the CBC.
Barre1, thanks for the note. Posting a response here from your question in a previous string. Hectic probably doesn’t accurately describe the mornings here in the weather center. Some of our TV audience may not be aware, that while forecasting, monitoring and presenting the weather on WIVB, I also provide radio weather forecasts to KISS 98.5 Buffalo, 106.9 KISS FM Jamestown, Newsradio 1490 WESB Bradford, PA, 100.1 “The Hero” Bradford, PA, 1410 WDOE Dunkirk and 96 KIX in Dunkirk, NY. I squeeze all of that in-between TV weather hits that run every 7-15 minutes for two hours…though that has just changed, since the Wake-Up show was on the air for three hours up until a week ago.
I wake up at 3:15 AM and arrive at the station shortly after 4 AM each morning. Because my shift is stacked early with newscasts, preparation time is rather short, so pre-prep is done the following day. I always have at least a foundation to work with for the next morning and hopefully, if my forecasting is on the money, changes can be limited.
I’m a stickler for forecast verification with incoming current surface weather observations, radar and satellite loops. These tools present the first warning signs of a computer guidance faux pa. As Don has already touched upon, the wealth of data and computer guidance had become extensive in this era and it becomes even more challenging to find that the computer guidance is not handling a particular situation accurately.
On those days, you take a deep breath and deal with each task one at a time…
Looks like the initial cold front won't cross the region quite so quickly later this week. Much of Thursday should be breezy & almost mild, with mixed showers or snow showers holding off until late in the day or early evening.
Cold air starts to deepen during Friday, with Snow Shwrs and some lake effect potential. The operational GFS indicates a tendency toward SW winds intially on Friday, but when the core of the cold air arrives for the weekend, the boundarly layer flow will tend to become W to NW. W would be much better for the ski resorts. The pattern after this weekend looks like alternating between seasonably chilly weather with some moderating temperatures, and some occasional blasts of Arctic cold. The flow aloft will be WSWly much of the time when short waves aren't passing by, and the storm track may be more active from time to time.
More this evening.
Don , So its looks like more of a colder weather period , than a snow event in the next week?
Man this winter has been boring , what are we going to do in the summer, blog will be quiet , except T storms..
Friday will probably bring lake effect snow to parts of WNY, and it may become significant. Still too early to see if the SW boundary layer flow will materialize.
Don't write off this transition to a colder pattern yet as a snowmaker, although it does look like the flow will veer to W & NW during the weekend. Ski resorts are desperate for some help from nature, and they will receive some in the form of great snow-making conditions and an uncertain amount of lake effect snow. Then, as I said, the storm track may be more active after this weekend.
Thanks for my answering my questions Don and Mike.
Yes, Environment Canada, which is funded by the federal government, has been the victim of severe cutbacks. I know it is a source of discontent at the weather offices. The CBC has also been hit with cuts. I was aware the BBC uses Mets and has been the better for it.
Thanks again folks!
don why is NWS forecasting heavy snow for friday for buffalo
thanks bob
BTW i feel sad for nyc/ what happened to the snow they were expecting to get
hi Barrie1/how's the weather going on your area
Bob,
That's in the forecast for the reasons already detailed in this thread. Location of Friday lake effect, however, is very uncertain as to whether or not it will actually target nrn Erie (there are a few hints of a yes on that; nothing more at this time).
Feel bad for snowmobilers , they have'nt got to many useful days , so far.........
This is good news. If it hits nrn erie co then shifts south that means most of WNY will be effected and we can all share in the fun. Srn erie, Chataqua, and Cattaragus need it most because of skiing.
Wouldnt be asome if we all got like a foot of snow and more!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! MB or Don i live in Hamburg.The north west side. do you think i have a better shot of signifficnt snow then lets say Buffalo????I know its early but based on your modles do you have any clue. I whached the news but id like to know a little more picifficly.Thanks Don #1 always.- Adam from Hamburg
N. Erie/ Amherst & Clarence "region" welcome the LES potential at this point. I dont know why, but I have a feeling that the LES snow that is supposed to set up on a SW flow will make a pro-longed visit to our area before it shifts south to ski country... where they are in need of snow the most!
oh man Don... here we go with the "what if" and "how much will my specific area see?" questions.
People, this LES **Potential** is 4-5 days away... and the weather forecast will change a handfull of times before the "LES event" even gets here!
Ask your "specific questions" on Thursday... if you want the best answer!
Ohhhhh Noooo , the LES chaos is starting again..
Be patient , use the force , wuuusaaaa..
Re peat to yourself , you will not get snow , you will not get snow..
Seriously people , wait and learn , we don't need 100 posts about who's gonna get it..
Hello Ayuud
Sorry for the delay in getting back to you.
Light snow in this region. The ski hill operators are thrilled. Not so much because of the light snow, but they can get the snow making machines operating again.
Of note, Environment Canada is avoiding any mention of LES. Don is bang on. Too early to draw conclusions that are definitive.
Well, for those who choose to ask "how much am I gonna get" on this Monday, allow me my group answer:
I don't know.
As soon as I start to see some scientifically sound signs in the data, you'll hear about it.
Thanks Don but if you get anything no matter how little it is please let us know.Sorry im despret for a lot of snow.-Adam from Hamburg
To tag onto what Don just wrote, Bloggers, please check out his post from December 16th..."Communicating Uncertainty to the Public". You can click on the archives section dated 12/16/07-12/23/07 and located on the right hand side of the screen of the main BuffaloWeatherBlog page. I know a lot of you long for Lake Effect Snow (including me!!), and you want (or don't want) it to fall in your neighborhood.
By the way, in lieu of talking about a possible "big one" late in the week, let's not forget tonight's minor snows for those who may yet have to drive. As of 9pm, we've had numerous reports of fender benders, and a band of lake enhanced snow extends from near Dunkir up into the metro area and east to Batavia--so be careful.
Hello,
Weather Bug says heavy snow for Friday!!!!
Ah..but they also show a peak of the sun too on the graphic for Friday...
hmm heavy snow & partly sunny..
Listen to MB... Be patient and we wll know this saturday what happened on Friday..
MB,
How are you doing?
Lake temp is at 37F. Nice and warm and a cold front coming...
I know its early but this could be a real whopper of a LES event..
But its way to early..You can'y help but get excited.
Anonymous: Perhaps you haven't lived in WNY long enough to know when there's heavy lake effect snow, the sun may be shining just 5or 10 miles away. We've already told you about the potential for snow and lake effect snow on Friday.
Blizzard: I'm doing great, and yes, lake snow is exhilarating...especially when there's lots of it! I'm a huge snow lover!! :-)
Ohhh no... did I just see Don use the phrase "the big one" a few posts up?! Are we really talking business with this expected LES event Friday?! From the sounds of it, I would have to say we are, and Im not going to get "thrilled" that there is a chance that the North Towns could see the start of the LES...(I live in Amherst) because we all get sooo excited when we have a "weather event" on the way... just for it to end up being a dud! On the flip side... if you are a weather buff, its not possible not to get excited... so I am happy! I hope Amherst/ Clarence win the lotto with this one... at least in the begining... I know its supposed to shift south. Friday cant come soon enough! And if by some (in my mind "slim chance") chance we actually get "the big one" we have a long wknd to clean up after it! Come on snow gods, Bring us (N. Towns... and I suppose South of us too) all you got!
"The big one" was tongue-in-cheek, anonymous. Too early to know.
I can see this Lake Effect Snow band forming over Northren Erie, hitting the well populated towns of Amherst and Clarence... and it is supposed to shift south, but for some reason, the wind direction does not change to shift the band south. The N. Towns get a rare major LES event... I can see it happening! Be prepared, thats all we can do right now!
-Time to begin a new thread on the expected LES.
I just saw the NWS web site for Amherst, and I think their going a little crazy with this LES event! I didnt know it is supposed to hit the N. Towns?! They use the "heavy snow" icon, which is not used all that much! wunderground.com says the same thing for this coming LES event.
Here is the NWS forecast for Amherst Thur night thru Sat.
Thursday Night: Periods of snow. Low around 23. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Friday: Heavy snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 25. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Friday Night: Snow showers likely. The snow could be very heavy at times. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 21. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Don-
If this LES event does shape up, how soon do you think we will see watches/ warnings?
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