Wintry Pattern to Persist into Upcoming Week
The furnaces and fireplaces will get another workout this week. While our weekend arctic blast will ease up Monday into Tuesday, another polar plunge is set to push in during mid-week. The ski resorts have welcomed the snow, and more is on the way. Lake snow is scheduled to wind down early Monday with more seasonable winter air slowly arriving. Another cold front is set to cross over the region on Tuesday with a widespread, mainly light snowfall followed by arctic air that will likely set up localized lake snow going into mid week. Too early to tell where and how much, but signs are favorable for a wintry week ahead.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
8:59 PM
163 Comments:
only 3 or 4 inches hear in Arcade. Lots of blowing and drifting but a pretty wimpy lake effect event for us. Better luck next time i guess
Yay! Good news if you like winter as I do! Any signs on how much snow we could expect on Tue with the general snowfall?? Is there any chance what-so-ever that LES this up-coming week could target the northtowns?? Thanks MB!!
MB ummm i know you dont know this rite now but please give it your best shot.Ilive on the north western side of Hamburg.Do you think this snow will impact the southtowns more?????Or will it shift though the metro and downto the southernteir and will the band move around a lot. Please give me somthing im desprete lol.Also do you think itll be around or below 32F for how ever far you can make a gess. Thanks MB -Adam from Hamburg
Adam Afin and Mike: I answered your questions in the previous post titled "Weekend update" Like I said Adam, lake snow will not impact you tonight..the band will weaken while shifting northward tomorrow, so you will likely get brushed with some minor snowfall during the day.
Andrew: Right now, it appears it will be a light general snowfall..roughly 1-3" on Tuesday. After the front pushes through and the arctic air spills in, that's when lake snow will likely kick in for midweek. At this time, it's much too early to tell exact placement of the lake flakes. If we're in a similar flow compared to this weekend, then it'll again be the deep southtowns, ski country, so. tier and north near the Lake Ontario shoreline.
Catt. county and the imfamous chataqua ridge gets the snow. As for my area in So. erie county [ boston] we had over the past 2 days I'd say 5 or 6 inches total. I know colden had 6. All in all not too much. good call on dropping warning to an advisory. looks like from NWS discusion, the flow for the next lake effect event will be similiar either west or west northwest flow. good for ski areas. I noticed above average temps. in the outlooks on noaa, is there a big warm up?
MC3008: There are signs of more significant warming toward the end of the month. Also, with an arctic blast, it's typical that the flow is from the west or nw. So, in that case, yes, ski country-so. tier would be the favored lake snow areas.
So not much snow for the north towns?! Well, I cant say Im suprised... We're snow deprived up here lol!
For any of you who have visited Central Ontario's 'cottage and ski country', you will be familiar with Highway 400 out of Toronto.
More than 100 vehicles invovled in three separate collisions south of Barrie Sunday afternoon due to whiteouts, snowsqualls and drivers not slowing down for the conditions. All the crashes in a half hour span. Thankfully, nobody was killed.
Squalls pounded part of our region, mostly north of Barrie, with over 30 cm/a foot reported in some areas.
Have a good day
Don or Mike does the warmup at the end of the month that MB alluded to look impressive enough to melt most of the existing snow? Does it look like way above normal like the begining of the month or just slightly above normal?
A few questions for the Channel 4 meteorologists. First of all, I am seeing a lake effect snow band over northern chautaqua county moving north at a pretty good clip. it looks to be intensifying a bit too. do you expect continued movement north, or any further development, through the afternoon? how far north do you think it will go, also? i noticed that winds are turning more towards of a SWterly direction, so maybe we'll get a little today. sadly up here in wheatfield, we have brely a dusting. hoping that will change this week. Also, tonight, the winds are supposed to shift to the SSW, so wouldnt that mean lake effect snow development into northern erie and niagara counties, even through tomorrow, when the winds will remain southwesterly? how come we arent expected to get that much in spite of the favorable wind direction? is there AT LEAST the possibility for some accumulating snow in niagara and northern erie counties the next 24-48 hours? wishing for snow BADLY, want to get out and go tubing or sledding this week. thanks for your time and patience!
URGENT: a intensifying band developed over the southerntier and its moving north as the winds are backing up sw so i expect this band to move north as far as Amherst and bring periods of heavy burst of snow to The Niagra frontier region including NRN ERIE and just barely south of NIAG county now if this band holds together and there is not lot of windshear we may be looking at significant amount of snow AND thats if!!!!
mark henry, i know you're thinking the same way i'm thinking! but i see the same things you do as well. it is not weakening as forecast. it is only getting stronger and moving consistently north. so could southern niagara county be affected? i only hope and pray! looks promising, i'm gonna keep an eye on it all afternoon to see where it goes.
Folks We may get LES this Afternon . here is a discussion from NWS "OFF OF LAKE ERIE...THE WEAK LAKE SNOWS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING
HAVE INTENSIFIED AND SHIFTED NORTHWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
CHAUTAUQUA/CATTARAUGUS AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES AS STEERING WINDS
HAVE BEGUN TO BACK TO MORE OF A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION...WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING TO THE 0.5"-1.0" RANGE OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT SHOULD CONTINUE AS THE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BACK FURTHER LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY BRINGING THE LAKE SNOWS UP INTO THE BUFFALO
AREA. HAVE UPPED POPS AND EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR
WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT AND STRONGER THAN
EXPECTED INTENSITY OF THE BAND...THOUGH THINK THAT IT SHOULD STILL
MOVE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANYTHING WORTH AN ADVISORY. FOR
NOW...WILL LEAVE ACCUMS IN THE 1-3" RANGE...AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
M.B what if this band stayed muh longer across buffalo wouldnt it give us significnt amount of snow
WEATHERFREK
yea this lake effect snow is not weaking and its getting strong as it moves northward as far as southern niagara county and i just read the nws forecast discussion and they said 1-3 inches is expected but if the band stays the area long enough it will warrant a Lake effect snow Advisory or warning
Im getting excited what about you ":weatherfreak"
Anybody from Hamburg viewing area give us some Observation because the ban just moved to hamburg
did you say...lake effect snow ADVISORY!?!?!? or better yet, a WARNING!?!?!?!? :o thats flippin awesome!!! im pumped! i had a feeling this morning that we should get more than we were supposed to. i mean, just look at the NOAA radar! it looks healthy and on the move north. man, even if we get a lake effect snow advisory, i would be ECSTATIC! thanks for the great news, mark henry, i am looking forward to what the afternoon brings.
hey "weatherfreak" what about if this band stays stationary just in buffalo area i would love at all the meteroligist because they said it will weaken as it moves north
i hope we get hammered
hey weatherfreak this a nice radar from weather.com it is a street level radar which u can track snow events like this
Link:
http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/14213?from=36hr_maps&zoom=8&interactiveMapLayer=radar
here in north collins its terriable, white outs, snow is coming down at a ver good rate, pretty bad out here
20 degrees here in Hamburg , snowing pretty good , got about 1-2 so far in last hour.
Hoping for some big snow soon , sorry I prefer the big snows.
thanks for the comments, you guys from the southtowns. hope that what you're getting now is going to transfer up north to NIAGARA COUNTY!! we can only hope. (but it's still looking REAL strong and moving north!)
Guys..settle down.
As each minute passes the band will weaken.
Based on my guidance it should peeter out around Grand Island.
oh come on dont be a party pooper.
im trying to be realistic too and realistically, its NOT weakening yet and its STILL moving north. mike cejka isnt expecting much, but he did say its going to move up to niagara county later. so were going to get something. maybe more than they expect. but dont put us down, were trying to be optimistic here?
WEATHERFREAK i think niagara county will get 1-2 inches with brief period of bursts of heavy snow
Good Luck!!!!111
looks like some snow moving into BUFFALO right now, light to moderate it appears. just a taste of what we are GOING to get.
as long as we get enough to accumulate, then ill be happy.
NOAA website gives short term forecast, and once again, not very optimistic:
AT 1220 PM A
BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS ERIE COUNTY FROM EDEN TO
EAST AURORA, THEN INTO SOUTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTY. THE BAND WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD, REACHING THE BUFFALO METRO AREA BY AROUND 2.
THE BAND WILL DEPOSIT ABOUT 2 INCHES IN THE NEARBY SOUTH TOWNS AND
BUFFALO, THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES NORTH. BY THE TIME IT REACHES
SOUTHERN NIAGARA AND WESTERN ORLEANS COUNTIES, ONLY AN INCH OR
LESS IS EXPECTED.
shoot they better be wrong, but at least we are getting more snow tomorrow, maybe even enhanced with a southwest fetch?? is that out of the question, anyone?
By the way...nice website mark henry. it really does a good job of showing the intensity of the lake effect snow and where it is heading.
This post has been removed by the author.
alright im still not seeing any signs of weakening...can someone tell me if i'm blind of reality, or if it really is getting stronger? btw...anyone from the buffalo area getting snow right now? according to the radar, you're getting into it right now.
It's a clipper, clipper, one you better remember. It's Middle January, but more there may not be. For this patterns a flipper, a flipper, in case you are in wonder, the ridge building from under, ends winter for much of the East
Ayuud
JAN 21 08
it is whiteout right here in buffalo winds of 25mph and the snow are reducing the visibilities down to 0
i see a warm up in the extended outlook is it going to be a big one
REALLY, mark henry? very very interesting. and they said the snow would weaken as it moved north...from the looks of t hat report, everyone, it is not quite dying out yet, so we will just to have to rely on Old Faithful, the doppler radar, to determine just how intense this snow could become.
o no! a warmup did u say? well, as long as it is followed by A LOT of snow...and that goes for up north here, too! if it is anything like the 60+ degree days we had just a couple weeks ago, we might be in for another early taste of spring.
hey weatherfreak i cant see outside it's all whiteout even the cars are parking anywhere and using their emegrency light...........we got about 1 inches
Hey WIVB mets....can anyone get on here and give us an update about the potential for this afternoon's lake effect....even if it's not going to warrant an advisory or warning, how about an update from a pro and take it out of the hands of the amatuers...thanks...
an inch? in how long of a time period? wow i cant believe youre getting such heavy snow! i hope youre listening to this valuable info all u snow lovers! this is better than any weather forecast can give you...live updates!!
well u no the radar tells the whole story...u can tell where its going and how intense it is on there. but i would like to know, as well, if we are going to get more or less than expected. can we get a reply, Channel 4?
MARK HENRY
where do u live cuz i only see flurries down here on west side of buffalo}:
I Live near chectewaoga and we are getting hammered right now and the visibilites is down to zero and weatherfreak i think we got another so the totals will be 2 inches
you wont be getting flurries for long, ayuud. the snow is continuing to intensify and it looks as if an area of moderate to heavy snow is moving toward the buffalo area within the nect half hour. should be up in niagara county within an hour and a half, at the most.
This LES band better hold together by the time it reaches Amherst! We want at least some snow up here! And I too hope the mets' are wrong, and we get pounded!!
The LES band looks stronger now than it did all weekend! And its supposed to weaken as it shifts northward?? It doesnt look that way! Come on LES... hold together! lol!
The band doesnt look to be moving all that fast... that means it will dump more snow where ever it goes! If its moving this slow, it will probaly break appart by the time it reaches Amherst??? But I hope not!!
Mark Henry said...
"hey weatherfreak i cant see outside it's all whiteout even the cars are parking anywhere and using their emegrency light...........we got about 1 inches"
Not to offend, but I find this somewhat hard to believe. It has just started to snow in West Seneca, and unless the band is weakening and becoming more cellular, radar does not seem to indicate heavy snow in Buffalo (where you said you were originally from) or Cheektowaga (where you late said that you were from.
That being said, light snow in southern West Seneca.
About what time would you expect this LES band to reach the Amherst area? Anyone know?
chris
not all areas see the same snow and this was a brief period with very heavy burst of snow across the chectewaga area
Chris......I tend to agree with you...seems like a fish story...although the intensity of the snow has picked up in the Angle Road/SW Boulevard area of West Seneca in the last 10 minutes or so....looks like an impressive band on radar....some dark blue indicating heavy amounts...unsure as to how quickly it will move...guys, let's not make stuff up just to create hype...let's keep it informational, not fantasy land!!
Chris I think you are onto something. All live traffic cameras on the WIVB site shows dry roads, and even some grass on the ground for all the Cheektowaga and Buffalo area DOT cameras.
WOW! Ok, this band of snow is getting a lot stronger! It is not getting weaker as expected... look at the radar! This band that is coming up to the Buffalo/ North Towns area now has the whole fetch of Lake Erie for its source to form and get stronger. Im not too sure about this one, its not etting weaker, its actually getting stronger! Its not that hard to see that on the radar!!
...And the fact that the band is not moving all that fast makes me think we'll get a bit more than an inch or two out of it!
GOOD NEWS
an intense lake effect band has just developed over dunkrick and the Lake effect will hold together and drift northward as far as Amherst my thoughts about the accumalation
buffalo:3 maybe 5 if the bands stays longer
Northtowns:4
southtowns:3
OMG!!!!!!!!! JUST WAKING UP AND I SEE THE RADAR A HEAVY INTENSE BAND DEVELOPING DON ON DUNKRICK AND ITS MOVING NORTH AND BTW WHAT HAPPEN TO THE WEAK LAKE SNOW DRIFTING NORTH CUZ I SEE AN INTENSE BAND NOT WEAK
Just caught a glance of this thread. Check 844-4444 for my update or wivb.com for Mike's. Right now I'm busy doing my job, and this blog has to take a back seat at those times.
Hey guys, if this is potentially a big deal, where are the advisories and/or watches/warnings from NWS?...I'm down to flurries in West Seneca...perhaps this new band in Dunkirk might turn into something...initial burst seems to have died out and put down about 1 inch, maybe 2...
I think we may get hammered from the look of the radar and this band strengthing as its moving northward something big will be possible for north towns
On the Channel 4 Weatherline, Don indicated heavy snow over Angola at 1:30 lifting North. He predicted 3 inches for the Southtowns and lesser amounts to the North, believing that the band would die out as it lifted north.
FYI TO THE LAST ANOMYNOUS HE SAID INCLUDING BUFFALO FOR THE 3 INCHES OF SNOW
Wow i just went upstairs to eat lunch to find 15 new comments! and you all are thinking and saying exactly what i think. the band, though moving slow, is strong and only growing more so. that means if it holds together and continues to move north, then some places are going to get a lot more snow. why we dont have any advisories or warnings yet? not sure. but its definitely, and i mean DEFINITELY, NOT WEAKENING, so everyone who lives from the southtowns north, be on alert. we could get a bit more snow than they thought. right now in wheatfield its still sunny, but im beginning to see some clouds move in from the south which may be the leading edge of the lake effect snow. i have more reason to think that this could be more than predicteds for a couple reasons. someone mentioned that the entire fetch of lake erie is now getting in on the act, and i completely agree with them. with a southwest fetch, theres lot of lake out there and that could mean more moisture. also today, the temperatures are a little warmer than they were yesterday, and because warmer air usually can hold more moisture, then the snow should be a bit heavier today. another point is that these southwest winds are supposed to continue into tomorrow, according to some websites and channels i have looked at. tonight they should become southsouthwesterly (looks kinda weird typed out) which is favorable for lake effect in niagara county. lots of things going on right now, and as from what i can tell, this is a VERY exciting time to be a weather lover if you live to the north! lets hope for some snow!!!
wow the channel 4 weather line is busy that is indicating how everyone is snow-starved and wants snow may god bury us all with the heavy white snow
AMEN!!!!!!!!!!!
i still dont get it. its not weakening, nor has it been for the past couple of hours, so why would they think it would start to now?
Just listened to Don's 1:30 Weatherline update....calling for up to 3 inches for metro area, with slick roads and potential for blowing and drifting...then dying out as it hits Niagara County...so let's hold off the talk about "getting hammered" for now....I'd rather wait for another update from Don...
AMEN TO THAT MARK HENRY!!! and thats exactly what im going to do right now. i want to see what don paul says, because this is a very interesting situation, and i think everyone up north wants a share in the lake effect snow that we seldom get. GO SNOW!!
that band is becoming EXTREMELY organized, i dont see how it could just peeter out
I told you guys at 12:10 that it will die out around GI. No one believed me...Now that Don said it maybe you will all believe.
Everyone needs to settle down a bit...its a couple of inches of snow.
wow weatherfreak good point i think we may be in store for something big us here in north towns and btw don has just updated the weatherline and he is saying up to 3 inches of snow is posible here in buffalo and the s'towns but it will weaken as it moves north later in the evening but i wont beleive anyone it is NOWCAST TIME BABY!!!!!!!!!!
go ashley! and once again soprano, STOP BEING SO NEGATIVE, do you understand just how unpredictable the weather is? and do you see how excited we get just with a couple inches of snow? just let us enjoy it because there is still a lot of uncertainty to this. we may get more snow than everyone thinks, and you herad it here first. that band is very well organized at 210 PM, and there is a perfect southwest fetch going on right now. and its moving north, creeping ever so closely to the city of buffalo and then moving north after. so what are we going to have to do in the meantime? just wait and see...my advice? WATCH THE RADAR! then you can make your own conclusions and share them with the rest of us
Grr , Admins you need a login feature or a moderator..Losing interest fast in this spam fest..
want proof?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=BUF&loop=yes
theres your proof. go onto that link and put it into motion. you can see where it is going, and the INTESITY and ORGANIZATION of this band. just to get you all a little more excited.
I am not being negative...its science.
wow weatherfreak an intense lake snow is well organized around southern erie and its moving north for the last time something good is in store for north towns
and btw thanks for first tracking this Lake effect snow and telling us the info i didnt even expect snow today i was just hearing them say lake effect snow will die as it moves northward but now they are saying we will get 3 inches of snow wooooooooooww im getting Excited!!!!!!!!!!!
actually it will already be in motion so dont even bother. just refresh it occasionally to track the band.
well your science is on that website. go on it, soprano, and you can tell me what you see.
the band at 229 PM is still intensifying, and it is now expanding out into the relatively warmer waters of lake erie. that shows a sign of continual strengthening and more moisture available. cuz remember folks, most of the lake water is open and ice-free, so that is moisture waiting to be turned into lake effect snow that will hopefuly dump on metro buffalo and places north that truly deserve the snow. im glad everyone is getting real excited about this! i mean, who really knows? just keep watching that radar. if you didnt get on my link yet, i highly suggest it. at the moment, it is the bets source for determining the position and strength of the lake effect snow band that was supposed to weaken but is not!!
I hate to be the burden of bad news but if you actually look at the motion on the snow band and the fetch of the lake within the next half hour you will begin to see the ban dissapate...
Maybe 3 inches top.. Still will be nasty with the blowing and drifting...
Flurries in West Seneca, have given way to light-to-moderate snow
At 2:30, the lake snow band is quite well organized, and its motion will allow 2 to as much as 4 inches to accumulate in a fairly short period of time. Amounts will be lighter as you move well inland toward Gen & Wyom Cos. Although there is currently no advisory in effect, for the grownups on here, this snow will definitely significantly slow the afternoon commute in the metro area.
Winds are going to back from their current 250 degrees to around 220 degrees by early evening, shortening the fetch over Lk Erie. That, along with a bit of warming aloft, will begin to weaken the band.
However, this band is not going to completely die out this afternoon. The weakening will become more pronounced during the early evening hours, when warm advection takes over. So, the northtowns will get a piece of the action--just not as big a piece as some of the stowns are currently receiving.
A classic lake effect is begining to setup with sw winds crossing the warm lake creating lake effect snow with Cape rising around 500 and avaible moisture will bring significant amount of snow to the buffalo area and as far north as Amherst and clarence and a thunder maybe a possibility judging on the radar and seeing this lake effect getting stronger as it is moving northward
Henry
Moderate-to-heavy snow in southern West Seneca... already an inch has fallen
Interesting comments, guys. and from the looks of it, it remains still growing and getting stronger, getting a little more northward movement than in previous frames.
3 or 4 inches allready.Looks like a little more for HAmburg.Just so you know north towners im not trying to get your hopes down but a lot of people including Don said it will weaken but youll still get some.Adam from Hamburg
Looks like the band is starting to weaken a little bit?! That's not good!
in elma we got 4 and its still coming down hard
Back to light snow in West Seneca. It does seem that darker shades of green are disappearing from the radar rapidly.
Don say's 2-4 inches of snow for tomorrow with the general snowfall! Most of that snow will come in the late afternoon.
idk what radar ur looking at, but it doesnt look weakened yet. its very organized and defined, and i can see little blips of yellow denoting heavy snow near buffalo. there is a characteristic shift north and it continues to pick up a little steam. so idk. it aint over til its over.
Yea, it just got a little smaller in coverage... and now its moving north at a faster speed, which would mean less snow.
A 10 mile wide lake effect snow band extending from orchardpark to as far north Lackawanna is slowly shifting north so you can expect snow rates of 0.25 to 0.50 inches per hour which would bring the snow Accumaltion down on southern erie county to 4 inches and for buffalo northtowns expect this band to weaken as it moves north toward niagara county but that doesnt mean they wont be snow accumalation expect snow rates of up to 0.50 inches per hour which would give buffalo and Amherst areas snow Accumaltion close to 3 inches And if thats is not enough the clipper coming tommorow will bring general snow showers to the region expect snowfall from trace to 3 inches More to Follow>>>>>
it just looks smaller because there isnt that ground clutter which was making it look really bad. dont get me wrong, it still is, but im staying optimistic. i mean, even if wheatfield gets 2 inches of snow, i can be happy.
Yea, haha, Im just below you. Im in Amherst, and I would be happy with 2" of snow too! It is not really near Amherst just yet though. I hope so much that it keeps some of its strength so we can get some snow! We need a fresh coat of snow here!
If we can at least get a few inches of snow every day, or every other day this week... it will start to pile up. Some of those outdoor winter activities may become possible to do soon if this happens! This snow band is moving so slow... I thought it would at least be through the city by now!
2 more miles and it will hit buffalo
The Amherst area has not seen much in the way of snow this winter. It would be nice to get some!
Adam u have to be patient this LAKE effect snow is fair and it will give everyone its snow and btw 1 more thats how the band close to downtown
Don,
A quick question about weather observations...
Is there any objective criteria for what is light snow, moderate snow, heavy snow, and flurries or is it merely subjective?
-Matt
The snow is now in the city of Buffalo!