Another Arctic Cold Snap; Late Wknd System Follows
Another quick shot of arctic air will arrive during Friday, accompanied by mainly light snow shwrs. Brisk winds and falling temps will set up during the day, and the cold will linger into a dry Saturday.
The next system to impact us will be another storm with a variety of precipitation. As I've posted, not a single significant storm system this winter has been all snow, and this one will be no exception. Clouds will increase on Sunday, with moderating temperatures. Some mixed precipitation or rain will arrive by later in the day. If it is a mixture, it may turn to all rain later Sunday night as strong warm advection approaches ahead of a deepening storm pulling out of the Gulf. Today's runs still show significant differences between the European, the Navy NOGAPS, the Canadian GEM, and the GFS. But a blend of these models (the Navy model is the coldest) suggests fairly heavy mixed precip or all rain later Sunday night, abruptly turning to snow with the passage of the storm's cold front early Monday. There may be a burst of snow, diminishing to snow showers--with very gusty winds on Monday, and sharply falling temps.
Since it's only Wednesday night, it goes almost without saying, there will undoubtedly be some adjustments in the projected path of this storm system.
The next system to impact us will be another storm with a variety of precipitation. As I've posted, not a single significant storm system this winter has been all snow, and this one will be no exception. Clouds will increase on Sunday, with moderating temperatures. Some mixed precipitation or rain will arrive by later in the day. If it is a mixture, it may turn to all rain later Sunday night as strong warm advection approaches ahead of a deepening storm pulling out of the Gulf. Today's runs still show significant differences between the European, the Navy NOGAPS, the Canadian GEM, and the GFS. But a blend of these models (the Navy model is the coldest) suggests fairly heavy mixed precip or all rain later Sunday night, abruptly turning to snow with the passage of the storm's cold front early Monday. There may be a burst of snow, diminishing to snow showers--with very gusty winds on Monday, and sharply falling temps.
Since it's only Wednesday night, it goes almost without saying, there will undoubtedly be some adjustments in the projected path of this storm system.
posted by Don Paul at
10:44 PM
103 Comments:
I presume that this event will mean that everyone within the WIVB viewing area will get a shot of this in some form or another?
Is there any chance that this next storm could end up being a mainly rain event? For some reason or another, the Weather channel has us set for rain and snow showers on Sun, and just rain showers for Wed. TWC doesnt show the cold air getting here til late Mon night/ Tue. I know TWC has little "human input" so I am by no means taking their forecast to heart. Any chance of this next storm to give us snow accumulation? Prob too early to tell right? From the sounds of it... its only Wed. and I can tell/ have a feeling that this next storm will be one of the stronger ones we've seen this winter. Is the timing for this storm still expected to come in on Sun night thru Mon... I think I heard you say it is! I know you will be keeping an eye on this one, as I will be too. Thanks Don!!
-Chris
There's something I find pretty funny- WGRZ doesn't even have the chance for any precip what-so-ever in their extended outlook forecast for Sun or Mon! Someone must be sleeping on the job over there!
Too much disarray in the models to get any more specific on this storm than what I've posted to start this thread. There is a chance of some snow accumulation on Monday as the deepening storm pulls away.
I can't imagine how anyone could look at the models and come up with no precip whatsover for the late Sun-Mon time period. That's outside the range of possible solutions right now. Every model which goes out that far (those I mentioned in my post) shows precip in that time period.
And so it goes....
thanks for the update, Don...have a good night.
Late weekend event will be a snow..rain...snow situtation. Snow on Sunday turning to rain then back to snow on Monday.
Too bad it won't be cold enoigh for all snow...it might have been classified as a WHOPPER.
I think Don likes to overcomplicate things with his alleged "models" WIVB in real life has little if any access to those models let alone know how to interpret them. So with all due respect, here is my forecast and you can take this one to the bank. 2 to 4 inches this weekend with some addtional accumulations on Monday. More as you go east. Now you folks can plan your weekend wihtout the usual drama of having to wait for more models nobody can read. Have a great day!!
Thanks anonymous!! :)
Why would WIVB not have access to forecast models? Average Joe can go to accuweather.com and subscribe and get forecast model data to make your head spin. I'm sure for a professional meteorologist, there is more opportunity to get real data. Further, why hide in anonymity and attack Don Paul or WIVB? What's the point of your challenge? This blog is for people who are interested in Buffalo weather as presented by WIVB's forecasters. If its not for you, I'm sure there is some other outlet.
The 12z NAM and 06z GFS, plus the last run of the European are still pointing to a vigorous storm pulling up to the west of us Sunday night. That gets us into gusty southerly winds w/rain showers more likely than a mix--though could be a brief mix at the very start. On Monday morning, as this low deepens dramatically, it will drag its arctic front across WNY with a quick change to snow, then snow showers. There will be the potential for strong to high winds. If L Erie didn't have so much ice, we'd also be looking at some serious lake effect, but that ice is rather extensive now.
If it makes "anonymous" happy, I'll also check in with Tom Brady's Gisele B to see what a Super Model is saying, to go along with our Super Microcast. Gotta keep the human touch!
Don and Team Wivb ,
Are you sure we are in winter , and not in late fall?
WGRZ's "Your Today in WNY" 11am show is getting the boot. Things did not go as well as they were supposed to for the show. WGRZ is going back to having a noon news cast, and finaly, there is precip showing in their forecast for Sun and Mon.
Mike says we could be looking at a HIGH wind event (severe weather term) on Monday. Do you see this happening? We seem to get hit by wind storm after wind storm this winter. Only 35 more day's til spring! Is this shaping up to be one of the bigger winter weather events we've had this winter?
-Chris
It seems to me that these storms have all been fairly similar throughout the winter... Lows or Cold fronts ushering in rain and wintery mixed precip then a rush of cold and snow with some backlash from the wrap-around...which is normally LES but with the covered lake, not so much with this one. Doesnt seem to matter if the system comes out of the west like an Alberta Clipper or Ohio low or from the S/SW..like a Colorado clipper...Seems like every system is the same run over and over again.
Don any ideas as to whether or not the temps will stay cold for a long enough duration, or will it warm up and thaw out again?
Thanks.
Have you noticed how WGRZ and WKBW now have a weather link phone number to call. WGRZ has had one for a while... not as much success as WIVB's by any means, but now the straggler, WKBW has jumped into the phone weather link thing. Why would anyone call ether of those two stations to get weather info if they cant even do it right on air to begin with? Besides, their phone numbers are too hard to remember. WIVB seems to set the bar in general with WNY weather. The other two stations take a back seat, wait for a while to see how well WIVB does, then they copy WIVB. What's next? Will WGRZ start texting Weather related school closings to cell phones as WIVB just started?
I can see it now...
Sunday: The day starts off cloudy like any other, then rain showers move in. It rains on and off for a while, then as late Sunday night approaches, the temp starts to drop as the winds begin to pick up. The rain quickly changes over to a mix.
Monday: Very windy, the wintery mix has left a light glaze on the power lines, and with the high winds, there are scattered power outtages. The precip is now all snow. It comes down heavy in the morning before lightening up somewhat in the afternoon. White outs are caused due to the high winds. More power outtages are occuring. Kids may have had off of school, but its Pres Day, and schools are off to begin with. Some pine trees are down all across WNY.
All and all, I can see a High wind warning being issued, along with ether a winter storm warning, or an advisory... Im leaning with the winter storm warning for some reason. This is my gut feeling.
hmmm...I think I will wait to see what Don has to say.
sounds scary anon. Can I be in your movie?
haha someone has a good imagination! Its too early in the game to tell if that kind of stuff will happen.
I think the anonymous weather reports are amusing, but since this is a weather blog, why not? I, for one, am only concerned with what Don, Mike, and MB say. :-) I'd love a snowstorm, but once again, we're looking at a rain/mix situation...with MORE high winds. This is a strange winter. Is there still a possibility that this could be a snow event? Based on our track record this winter, it's not looking good. Are we behind on snow totals and will this affect us come spring/summer as far as draught like in SE US?
Up in our neck of the woods, 5 to 10 cm(2-4 inches) from Alberta clipper late this evening/overnight.
Environment Canada has us with periods of snow and windy Monday(which just happens to be a new holiday in Ontario called Family Day. Maybe the family will be stuck indoors going batty). Our tv weather network tosses in mixed precip. for Monday. It'll be interesting to follow developments as the meteorologists at CH 4 track this storm over the next few days.
Regards
Thanks sabresfan for the posting about LES the other evening. Had a look. Good stuff.
No chance this is going to be an all snow event, amherst. I'm not yet convinced the trailing winds on Monday will cross the threshold from Strong/Advisory winds to the severe wx designation High Winds. I'll want to see a few more model runs, though it's certainly a possibility. We are behind in snowfall, but not precip. No signs of an impending drought.
More details on the air at 5, 5:30 & 6.
If your old enough to remember a man named Tom Jolls; also known as "Commander Tom". To the best of my knowledge he (Tom) didn't have all this high tech stuff. I remember watching Mr. Jolls knowing that if he said it was going to snow it was going to snow. I think Mr. Paul is a great meteoroligist, but I also feel that all meteoroligists rely on their computers and not on their "gut feeling".
Gut feeling generally means blown forecasts. We have to combine computer guidance with realtime surface observations, weather balloon soundings, climatology, and our own education and experience.
Gut feeling alone is nowheresville, but after everything else is weighed in the balance scientifically, the artsy part of forecasting does include some gut feeling element.
ooh..philosophy!
perhaps we should treat weather like its a wild animal or each storm as an organism of sorts... We understand so much about its behavior and its physiology, but there's the element of the wild, that unpredictable serendipidy that is nature...in these terms, we rely on our instincts.
Storm Watcher....
Can all the nabering nabobs of negativism please stay off this blog?!?...go over to WGRZ's blogs with the rest of the neanderthals and trade insults with those people...Don, I think if you know who this loser is, you should totally call him out on the blog and embarrass him right out of existence!!...on the weather, do you have any more of an indicator if the winds will reach truly dangerous levels?...if not, how close to the event will you have to wait before you make the call?....thanks!!
Heyy don, just woundering, how do you become a weather spotter or snow spotter???Adam from Hamburg
Storm Watcher,
As I posted earlier, this deep storm system is going to produce strong winds, but they may not quite reach the criteria of High Winds used by meteorologists: 40 mph sustained wind for more than an hour, or 58 mph gusts over an unspecified length of time. The January 30th event looked stronger 3 days in advance. This one will likely reach Wind Advisory range, but the probability of High Wind Warning criteria being reached can't be determined just yet.
A general query, Don. If the above average temperatures we have seen this winter is attributed to a strong La nina, how come the opposite effect, the El nino, which had a prescence during 2006, also atrributed to higher temperatures till Dec of that year?
Philosophical anonymous; the irony in determining the behavior of the atmosphere is that the motion of every single molecule of gas, including water vapor, is strictly governed by laws of physics. If our understanding of the interaction of these many laws (and related equations) were more complete, and the incredible number of variables possible from those interactions were better known, AND we had the ultimate observation system to measure those interactions, AND we had the ultimate bottomless-pit super computer crunch power, predicting weather theoretically could become a near exact science.
The so-called Chaos in forecasting systems of such incredible complexity is that the number of variables, large to begin with, grows much larger further out in time. It's difficult to foresee a time in which we will have all these capabilities. So, yep, intuition will be coming into play for years to come in the forecasting process. But that intuition must come on top of a foundation of a sound scientific education, a high level of intellectual curiosity and energy, and experience. Intuition without that foundation generally doesn't cut it, except for occasional dumb luck.
The la nina question: The NWS' Bob Hamilton did some terrific climatology research on the effects of la nina, el nino, and neutral conditions on WNY winters. He found a statistical correlation between colder winters and WEAK la ninas. But once la nina strengthens to moderate/strong, as it has this year, quite the opposite occurs. The strong Pacific flow with colder waters in the ern Pacific tends to keep the NAO positive much of the time, and prevents the Greenland block which can buckle the polar jetstream down into the n central and NE US. A strong el nino tends to keep us in a vigorous zonal flow with arctic air kept at bay mainly well north in Canada. When arctic air does moves toward us during a strong el nino, it tends to be more moderate and shallower--leading to such events as the horrific ice storm of 1998 for nrn NY, nrn New England, and Quebec.
This year, each of our major storm systems have followed paths in which warm advection aloft ahead of the storm center eroded the arctic air in place and made it too shallow for much snow.
Strong el nino: strong correlation with warmer, drier winter for WNY.
Weak el nino: more variability.
Weak la nina: anything goes--tendency sometimes toward a colder winter.
Stonger la nina: shallow arctic air, few if any prolonged cold spells.
The strongest winds should be limited to upper Michigan. Just an FYI.. ;)
Is this weather event going to be mainly a rain event, with advisory strength winds? Just got off the NWS site, and it looks to be that way :( The only snow will come Monday morning, and that looks to be minor.
This next storm could become a blizzard!!!
look at this! OMG
http://www.accuweather.com/news-top-headline.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0
This storm expected for Sun into Mon doesnt seem as exciting as it did yesterday. Doesnt really look like anything special. I was hoping for more, and ended up getting less.
The European has backed off a little on this storm's intensity from its last run, the GFS is approximately the same as earlier runs, the NAM is weaker than the GFS, as is the Navy NOGAPS and the Canadian GEM. But all models at this point concur on paths which would bring significant warm advection & rain until the low center and its cold front go by, around early Monday. Using a blend/ensemble approach, we're more likely to see a Wind Advisory than a High Wind Warning on Monday. Lk Erie appears at least 80% ice covered, so that will greatly reduce LES potential as the cold air deepens. I think we have a good shot at some prefrontal convection later Sunday night, with stengthening dynamics. There may be a burst of post frontal snow, but the air loses much of its moisture, so snowfall rates should lessen quickly. There is also a potential dry slot which reduce any QPF as well.
It wouldn't take much of a change to bring the storm's intensity back up to High Wind potential, of course.
I don't know if that accuwx post was serious or a joke--but t'ain't no blizzard in this baby based on current data, folks.
So, cold front goes through tom. brings us a quick inch. Really cold for friday night into sat. Sunday begins to warm up as low pressure passes to our west, bringing us into southerly flow, precip. begins to come afternoon, continues throughout night. Rain changing to mix then snow as cold air begins to filter in from behind system. Quick burst of snow along with strong winds Monday. The warmer weather on sunday, along with the rain and strong winds. The 80% of covered lake erie will dwindle down to probably 50-60% which will give us a good shot of LES for sunday and monday, especially with the Arctic air and southwest flow. Could be interesting, if the strong wind doesnt break apart the bands. Will see....
Everyone should just give up on this winter it is over all of the storms are lake cutters which means rain. and high winds on the back side to kill the lake snow potential. Sundays storm will be the same. A dusting of snow on the back side if lucky. Then just really cold which is pointless if we can't get any snow. I personally can't wait for spring because I am sick of the high winds damaging my fence gate. Every week it's the same thing we are teased by the early models saying snow then by the time it comes it's rain and high winds.
About the Sunday storm watch by saturday the forecasted high temps will probably be raised to 50 or higher. I can almost bet the farm on it because that is how it has been all winter and it will not change now.
It's the weekend what do you expect for Buffalo & surrounding areas. I would be surprised if it was any better then this before June(HA!HA!)
Hi! I need advice from the mets. I have to get my daughter to Springfield OH. on Sunday. If I leave around 6 am on Sunday will I beat the storm ? If we do encounter the storm will the precip. be all rain between here and there? We also will be coming back late monday afternoon.
Thank You,
Nick
it sunny and 75 degrees with a humitdity of 40%
Just wanted to see those words again...
*sighs*
ok, I see the edge of the precip coming here on radar and the snow will soon taper off for the day so my unofficial count for this snow is 3/8" in S. Cheektowaga.
just a headsup for anyone looking for a good tv watch this morning/afternoon. THe history channel is doing an hour long special on the buffalo blizzard of 77 in a few minutes at 11am and replaying it at 5pm tonight i believe. Should be a good watch!
To one of the anonymouses: If you can find an energy source which can take us from 80+% ice cover on L Erie to 50-60% coverage the next, let us in on what it is.
Is it bigger than a thermonuclear breadbox???
MIDDAY UPDATE:
Strong warm air advection w/Sunday's approaching storm system should boost metro area highs to mid 40's, with a gusty downslope breeze. Shwrs arrive Sunday afternoon into the night--maybe a rumble of thunder ahead of the system's trailing cold front. Truly High Winds now look unlikely for Monday--just "quite windy" will do. There will be snow showers & some blowing snow on Monday, as temps fall. Even w/the Lake more than 80% iced over, limited lake snow will develop and probably shift mainly into ski country.
Pretty cold week next week, though nothing out of the ordinary....
Hi Don, I would be interested in knowing what factors influenced the change from possible strong/high winds, to now just "quite windy" if you have time to explain. This is certainly good news. TYIA DW
Just the modeled pressure gradient is reduced in strength somewhat from yesrday and the previous day, dw.
Amendment to earlier update: the 12z GFS does show a sharp short wave/clipper crossing the region by Wednesday, with a quick hit of snow showers & sharply colder temperatures, lasting about a day.
Hi Don
Environment Canada had our region around plus 7 Cel/45 F for Sunday with periods of rain or snow. Overnight low Saturday into Sunday around minus 9 cel. Now, they've got a high of plus 4/39 F and maybe snow or rain. E-C says depending on track of storm it could be freezing rain event here turning to brief splash of rain and then to snow. How many question marks remain regarding the track of this storm--or double low pressure systems that are to merge? Maybe we are too far north for a geneal rainfall here. Even question marks about precip. type for Toronto.
Thank you
Environment Canada has issued a winter storm watch for sunday/monday for freezing rain
barrie1, as of this morning, the models were fairly close on the projected path of this storm. Environment Canada's call sounds reasonable for your region. In the Buffalo metro area, we get significant warming from the downslope component of southerly winds decending the north slopes of hills to our south, heating and drying by compression as they do so. That downslope element can raise the lower elevation temps well above sheltered valleys in our southern tier, where the downsloping doesn't reach--a smaller scale version of the much stronger Chinook winds racing down the east slopes of the Rockies and causing damaging gusts and enormous temperature jumps on the High Plains.
In any case, there is no real downslope heating for your area, and a short wave approaching from the west will also bring limited moisture (not referring to the main storm coming up from the south), so I could see that as a reasonable fcast for your folks.
Don...................
If an individual were to be inside of a Doppler weather radar would the die if it were activated?
my friend seems to think if we were to enter our local Doppler 4 weather ball we would insinerate
ok kids, no climbing into the Doppler ball.....
Ok, from the sounds of it on the 5pm news, I don't think we can even call this a "storm" anymore. A little bit of rain, some minor wind, and we'll see some snowflakes fall on Monday that most likely wont accumulate. I origionaly thought this would be "a good one." Boy was I wrong! Another snow oppertunity down the drain!
Mark
Well,I believe Don did say it will be a vigorous storm still. That does not imply it should not be called a storm.
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Don I'LL Make Sure I'll Tell My Friend About This Crazy Idea That He Had and one more quick question sir....
When news 4 First Started How Did they Managed To transport the big tall radar that u see when u pass by the station
Don ..........
I Currently Just Transfered to middle college H.s (it i a college prepatory school which patnerships with ECC ) and they said if i graduate from their high school ill get my high school diploma and my associate degree ...they had different kind of asscoiasate degree(Associate in Business Degree,Enginerring and lot of other stuff...) unfortunaly they didnt had asscosiate degree in meterology but is there an Ascosiate degree in meterology and if yes where.. So What Im Asking Is thIs Ascosiate Degree Worth The Study Or It's Same As The High School Diploma I Picked The Ascosiate Degree In Business which will be my 2nd choice in my career besides the meteroligy
Ayuud,
The radar arrived in various crates and the tower was assembled on site. That radar came long after News 4 got started--Doppler radar didn't exist yet at that time.
No, there's no associate degree in meteorology. There is a Certificate in Broadcast Meteorology offered by correspondance from Mississippi State University, but it's not the equivalent of a b.s. degree, and would not satisfy the academic requirements for most meteorologist positions outside of broadcasting, most especially employment as a met with the NWS.
By the way, tell us more about your trip to Egypt. It must have been a thrill to see the pyramids and other ruins and structures from that advanced early civilization.
Thanks Don for the earlier response.
Since things are a little settled weatherwise this evening, I am wondering if you have ever had the pleasure to visit the Barrie-area or points north into Muskoka cottage country. Besides wonderful lakes, we get some dandy summer storms. The Barrie area is also considered 'tornado alley' by Environment Canada. During a severe weather outbreak across the U-S Midwest May 31, 1985, the system raced into Southern Ontario and hit Barrie with an F4 tornado--killing nine. To this day many people who experienced the storm in all its anger still get ancy when they hear a rumble of thunder. Local media say they still get calls from some of these people during storm watches/warnings asking if there will be a tornado.
As an aside, I have been to Buffalo many times--wonderful city and great sports town.
Don, can you explain why NWS Doppler Radar is in clear air mode and not in precipition mode when it is snowing out. Does 4 Warn doppler use clear air mode?
jk
barrie1,
I've been close to Barrie once, but not really Muskoka Cottage Country.
I recall that May 31st outbreak. All in all, between Ohio, PA, Ontario, and the interior of WNY, more than 80 people died that day--with 2 F4 tornadoes in NW PA alone. The L Erie breeze save WNY from any large tornadoes.
jkgrds, clear air mode is used when there is low reflectivity, light precipitation--particularly light snow. It's a more powerful focused display, and captures more of the precipitation when it's sparse such as it is tonight.
I should also add that clear air mode is used when there is no precipitation. In this mode, atmospheric motion can be more readily traced by reflectivity from dust, smoke, and even insects on occasion. Clear air mode has been observed many times to detect migratory birds and insect swarms.
You can learn more about this, I believe, on the Buffalo NWS website.
Don, do you think there will be any snow accumulation on Monday? If so, give it your best shot as to amounts. Im sure the amount of snow will be very minor if that.
Don...........
First Thing I Noticed Don When I Went To My Hometown Egypt Has Changed A Lot Since I left It When I Was 3 Years Old Now It's Economy Has Improved Significantly And Many Houses Are Being Planned To Be Built As A Green Houses Other Wise It's Still The Egypt I Use To Know...Now Lets Go In To The My Journey To Egypt...
My Whole Purpose Of This Trip To Egypt Was To See My Grand Father (I Haven't Seen Him In 10 Years)Which I Finally Did And After That I Went To The Cairo Museum Which Had Unbeliavable Treasure Monuments Like The King Tut's And Many Other More One Note:Egyptian People Are Very Friendly With the Tourists And They Provide A Tourist Guides...Back On My Journey>>>>
Then I Went To The Pyamids And They Were the Exact Look As The Pictures We See Around The Net and it was my first time riding on a camel's back around the three pyramids after that they was a door inside the pyramids that u can go in and see some historical monuments it is unbelivable if u see it...well after a long day i went home then my grand father said he could go skiing with me but i was suprised they had skiing in middle east due to the climate but they did. not egypt though it is at lebanon where the weather is relatively cold and they had on the ground about 5 inches of snow the locals were saying this was there first significant snowstorm over 2 centuries..we went to the ski resort in Faraya a village just located few miles after lebanon and it had this ski resort called Mzaar Ski Resort The resort has 42 slopes and 80 kilometers of ski tracks and Skiers, snowboarders, snowmobile addicts, cross-country lovers and paragliders come to the resort from all parts of the country. Starting at 1850m, you may reach the 2465m top of Mzaar and enjoy the breathtaking view over the colorful Bekaa valley, Mount Hermon of the Anti-Lebanon and other peaks like Laqlouq and the Cedars. Coastal towns and even Beirut the capital might be seen on a clear day. Those who want a break from skiing might visit the stunning 30 meter natural bridge of Kfardebian formed by wind and water erosion, and also ruins of a Phoenician temple and a Roman tower.
After That my Grand Father sent me into buffalo and thats it!!!! The Overall Of The Journey Is A Un-forgettable one ..First time seeing my grandpa and the pyramids also one more note while i was watching the tv back in egypt i saw the weather meteroligist saying in arabic the " Khamaseen" winds will boost the tempreatures around the desert to 81C That Time i rembered you when u said:
"storm that is coming from the south will bring downslope southerly flow that will boost the temps across our area" it's kinda similar to like that though it is unsual for it t happen in the winter ..it often happens on spring
Thanks for the details, Ayuud.
EVENING UPDATE: No big changes from midday update. Rain arrives by early Sunday afternoon, with a gusty downslope breeze boosting Sunday temps into the low 40s--higher if the rain is delayed. The southerly wind picks up to 20-35 by late afternoon. Still could be a few Tstorms Sunday night. Cold frontal passage Monday AM, with dry slot, so a "burst" of snow looks unlikely. Sct Shwrs will turn to Snow Shwrs. Later in the day, it gets cold enough for some Blowing Snow--but not much accum on Monday. Winds on the order of 25-35 w/gusts over 40--but unless model runs change over the wknd--winds look to be below High Wind criteria. More Snow Shwrs Tue into Wed, with that sharp little clipper dropping temps back Wed PM into early Thursday quite a bit. Some moderation by Friday, with a Lt Mix possible.
By the way, the "It's Buffalo...It Snows...DEAL WITH IT!" shirts are back on News 4 at 11. Go to wivb.com and click on Contests for the simple entry details...we're giving out 10 each night at 11--but you have to watch to win!
So it doesn't look as though Sunday and Monday will be as bad as we first thought what so ever. What is the next "weather event" to keep our eyes on, if any? Its almost March, so temps will be on the rise soon. Not too many more chances for snow this winter. As far as I can see, it looks as though we could have some wintery weather to deal with NEXT Friday into the weekend. That's a long way's off, but that's all there really is in the way of wintery weather. MB or Lindsay- Do you think we could have any flooding problems with the expected rain tomorrow night? It looks as though the snow and wind factors with this storm are going to be rather minor. Thanks!
-Steve
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Steve: I don't think general flooding will be a problem tomorrow. The expected rainfall totals are not all that impressive. Winds will turn quite gusty though, with another significant, but short-lived warmup in the works. I'll have an update tonight at 6 and 11 on News 4 and also at 10pm on CW 23..
You can really see the ice on lake erie on the visible satellite, looks like open water by long point and off chautauqua county. lake looks really frozen on the western end down by cleveland probably because it's shallower down there. It's really a nice winter day. How many times can you say that in WNY.
Good evening MB
Environment Canada has posted Freezing Rain Warnings for Hamilton/Southwestern Ontario.
Around here, a Winter Storm Watch. Freezing rain by tomorrow morning changing to rain in the afternoon. No rainfall totals mentioned, but in SW Ont Envir. Can. suggests up to 25 mm or 1 inch.
Doesn't look like this storm will be much in the way of snow. You still confident rain won't be a big issue.
Must say--today was one of the nicest winter days we've had with deep blue sky and sunshine. On days like today, you can't complain about winter!
Barrie: The moisture and milder air from this next storm system are pulling up this way from the midwest. However, with 1029mb High pressure parked across the northeast, that moisture will be slamming into dry air, and this will likely lessen the precip totals for WNY. I just don't see heavy amounts of precipitation lined up for tomorrow. But the farther West you go, there'll be heavier precip amounts. Since you are located north, it will take longer for your area to change over to rain... I can certainly see how what Environment Canada has posted for parts of Ontario. BTW, indeed a gorgeous winter day!
Thanks for explaining the precip. situation. That explains to be why Envir. Can. has listed expected rainfall amounts for SW Ont. of up to 25 mm. For us, just a call for rain but no totals, so I assume it won't be huge.
Have a good night
For those of you who are interested in what tonight's "halo around the moon" is all about: the halo is actually made up of high, thin cirrus clouds, composed of tiny ice crystals which produce the halo effect. There's an old weather saying, "Halo around the moon, rain soon" In this case, it's true! High thin clouds are oftentimes precursors to approaching storms.
MB,
Whats our next "weather event" to keep our eye on if any? Looks like yet another warm-up on taps for next weekend again?! Whats new, its been up and down all winter. Today was such a nice winter day!
-Chris
Wow! I can really see the halo around the moon. Its somewhat rainbowish. Ive too heard the phrase... rain is on the way... even though as I look at my temp here in Amherst it says its 14 degrees outside. Its going to take a lot of warming up before this rain gets here if its only 14 degrees outside now! Keep up the good work MB!! :), Adam
MB, in your mind, with knowing whats down the road for us, do you think we're just about done with snow this winter? I know it snows in March, but it seems as if things will begin to warm up starting next weekend. Do you think next weekends warm up will be a long extended one? Or will we get some more shots of cold air this winter to support snow? I have to think that there is not too many more chances for snow this winter. Spring is only 32 days away haha!
Chris and Anonymous: Based on what I see today for the extended period, it's a continuation of our winter roller-coaster ride this season. After tomorrow's storm, there's an arctic front that will send in the winter chill by midweek. Looking further ahead, another quick, significant warmup next weekend that will likely be short-lived by another cold front into the following week. So the story goes. Here's some interesting stats from the Buffalo National Weather Service: Since December 1st, we are more than 5 inches below our "normal" snowfall. But...the liquid precip total is running nearly 2 inches above normal! I attribute part of this to the "La Nina" pattern that has been locked in for this entire winter season so far...and there are no signs of it weakening anytime soon.
Adam: A noticeable temp change is here tomorrow..it's a big warm up. Wait and see...
A freezing rain ADVISORY has been issued for Chaut, Catt, Allegany, McKean and Potter co's until 11am today. Temps are struggling to reach the freezing pt across the S. Tier & NPA so precip will fall as freezing rain initially...especially in the valley's. As the temp rises above freezing and into the 40's this afternoon any frozen precip will quickly change to plain old rain. Precip will continue to fall as rain through tonight and overnight. Tomorrow AM temps will begin to fall and by midday tomorrow a few snow showers are likely but with little accumulation expected. Tomorrow (President's Day) will also be the windier of the two days with sustained winds between 25-30 with gusts up to 45mph.
I have always associated freezing rain with March more than February.
Does more freezing rain now possibly mean less in the coming weeks. Does this LaNina mean an early spring or don't you see any 30-45 pattern?
Anonymous:
No, more freezing rain now does not mean less later. Precip type has to do with the storm track. When the center of low pressure tracks to the east this puts you on the cold side of the low and snow is more likely to fall. If it tracks to the west...this conversely puts you on the warm side of the low and this is when all rain or a mixed variety can fall. Freezing rain falls when there is a VERY shallow cold layer right at the surface so when the rain drops hit the surface it freezes on contact.
any measurable snow in the forcas this weak?
dry slot working north, low seems really far west, maybe the rain will stay heaviest to the west and the ski resorts won't lose that much snow.
Hey guys.I have a weather system and the wind speed isnt or at least seems to not be working.ive mounted it 6 inches off my roof.im thinking about raising it 3 more feet which isnt a problem to do.for example a couple weeks ago (the wind storm) and i only got a gust of 45mph and i live along the lake shore of Hamburg????Maby its just not open enof but what do you guys suggest???THANKS-Adam from Hamburg
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