Flood Threat to Increase; "Interesting" Wx to Follow...
Models continue to show 2 separate surges of significant rain on their way; one by early Tuesday into the morning, and a second after midnight Tue night into Wednesday. Combined with meltwater, the runoff created may pose a significant flood threat on streams, creeks, and possibly the rivers. The Flood WATCH for WNY goes into effect Tue evening thru Wed afternoon. There will also be the localized threat of ice jam flooding in the usual trouble spots. People in these regions should consider taking protective action for their basement possessions by or during Tuesday, just in case.
During Wednesday, as the second area of low pressure goes by, colder air will filter in from the north. This will probably convert the rain to sleet by or shortly after midday, and eventually turn it all over to snow. One question is whether or not the cold air will arrive in a shallow enough layer at the ground to present a period of freezing rain before the transition to snow is completed. Roads could become rather slick by late Wednesday and/or Wednesday evening, with a modest snow accumulation possible. Another disturbance could bring us a few snow showers on Friday, but a strong short wave in the flow aloft may bring increasing snow showers on Saturday in advance of a sharp arctic blast developing by Saturday night into Sunday--one of the colder airmasses this winter. As per usual with our vigorous la nina and positive/warm phase NAO, this cold outbreak will be unable to hang around these parts all that long...but it looks like it will be quite noticeable when it's here. Some lake snow may spray around on veering winds during Saturday, before a WNW flow dominates and steers most of the lake snow into Ski Co.
During Wednesday, as the second area of low pressure goes by, colder air will filter in from the north. This will probably convert the rain to sleet by or shortly after midday, and eventually turn it all over to snow. One question is whether or not the cold air will arrive in a shallow enough layer at the ground to present a period of freezing rain before the transition to snow is completed. Roads could become rather slick by late Wednesday and/or Wednesday evening, with a modest snow accumulation possible. Another disturbance could bring us a few snow showers on Friday, but a strong short wave in the flow aloft may bring increasing snow showers on Saturday in advance of a sharp arctic blast developing by Saturday night into Sunday--one of the colder airmasses this winter. As per usual with our vigorous la nina and positive/warm phase NAO, this cold outbreak will be unable to hang around these parts all that long...but it looks like it will be quite noticeable when it's here. Some lake snow may spray around on veering winds during Saturday, before a WNW flow dominates and steers most of the lake snow into Ski Co.
posted by Don Paul at
8:27 PM
80 Comments:
Does the lake snow look pretty significant because kissing bridge and holiday valley are gonna need it. How big does this event look right now? Is it too early to tell?
Don As Per Your Post This Could Turn Into One Of The Coldest Air Of This Mild Winter Even Us Skiiers Would Benefit From It/ A WNW Flow which would give the ski county some lake snows...........
Remember, the Global models (like the GFS, European, etc) lack the resolution to make accurate boundary layer wind forecasts so far in advance. At this early point, there are signs of a more NWly flow, rather than a Wly flow, which would provide hit-or-miss coverage with shorter fetches to Ski Country. There are no signs right now of a predominantly period of SWly flow. But there should be at least a synoptic burst of snow for a short while as this very cold-to-bitter airmass comes barging into WNY. Wind Chill may become a major issue by later Saturday night into Sunday.
Don-
How much rain do you think WNY could see? Over an inch? This cold snap coming seems to really take over on Sunday, and Sunday night. Do you see WNY getting any measurable snow within this colder period? The long-range outlook seems to be on the colder side temp. wise, than we've been in the past week or two.
Don... how serious of a flood threat is this. Meaning... do we have a good chance of seeing widespread flooding, or just minor streem/ river flooding? Is this one of the best set-ups you've seen for a flood potential in WNY? Why or why not? Thanks!
What are the chances of the 2 main Amherst creeks (Ellicott & Tonawanda) flooding? I know they are "slow risers," and they are slow to get back below flood stage too. These two creeks, as you well know cause huge problems when they over-flow their banks! Sometimes more-so than others.
Just to let you know, both of these creeks ARE ice covered.
Parts of WNY may see over an inch. The newest run of the NAM holds BUF down to less than an inch, but still enough to move ice around. The GFS shows more liquid over the headwaters of the rivers to our south, so that could have a greater impact by midday Wednesday, before colder temps slow the runoff.
Jim: I wouldn't call this one of the "best setups", but it's enough to raise concern. What snow pack there is has high water content, and there is some frozen soil to reduce permeability.
Starting to rain pretty steady here in Lancaster. Not looking forward to possible flooding!
Lancaster Lenny
Looks like theres a little bit for everyone reguarding the weather the next few day or so. Heavy rain... warm temps... measurable snow... cold temps, etc. Very active time period ahead of us! We go from spring weather to deep winter...
City Engineer Don Poleto told me tonight he had surveyed Buffalo area streams and creeks, and thought it wouldn't take that much runoff to mobilize the ice in place. He's hoping to get the ice breakers out there in the mid morning. Ice Jam flooding could develop in the face of overnight Shwrs & Tshwrs & the Tue thaw in advance of the start of the evening Flood Watch.
Don,
with the NE wind tomorrow night should we be concerned that the rain will be freezing rain and not plain rain. NE winds bring in colder air and with the temps in the 30's would this be possible.
Hey guys........I know right know the main focus is the flood potential, but what about the potential for significant freezing rain overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning...Mike spoke of this on the wakeup show today...any more info on this or how bad it could be?...also, with high temps in the mid-teens on Sunday with high winds, what could wind chills be like?...below zero?...well below zero?...thanks
thunder and lightening in February!!!! (referring to last night) Wow...that's gotta be rare! Then there's this February thaw. Its a kooky winter, alright!
Thunder and lightning is not as rare in February as you might think, sabresfan--though it's not an everyday experience.
The freezing rain is a tough one right now. One model, the NAM, is considerably colder than the GFS. The GFS shows a short period of freezing rain during the day tomorrow.
The difference between sleet, which causes only minor problems, and freezing rain can be just a few hundred feet in depth for the subfreezing layer.
In all honesty, I haven't made up my mind yet--have more analysis to do before I head in to the station.
Winter Storm Watch posted by Environment Canada for Toronto area, Niagara/Hamilton---snow with freezing rain/ice pellets mix in Toronto and freezing rain Niagara/Hamilton overnight. Freezing rain changing to snow tomorrow in Niagara/Hamilton..4 to 6 inches of snow.
Not too far from you good folks in WNY. Mind you, just a WATCH for now. Around our neck of the woods in southcentral Ontario, just 2 inches of snow.
You folks at CH 4 weather have had a heckuva time with these storms of late--not that you have been off--but trying to figure out when, where and what type of precip is going to take place!
Happy national weatherman day Don!
Environment Canada has issued a Winter Storm WATCH for the Niagara Region in Ontario, which will likely turn into a Warning as stated below.
Here we go again.. Yet another moisture-laden winter storm is taking shape over Texas this morning and is setting its sights on southern Ontario. This seems to be following the script of many previous storms this winter season. But this storm is a little different in that there is relatively mild air over Ontario and New York ahead of it. As it tracks northeastwards reaching Ohio by Wednesday morning..Increasing winds are forecast to tap somewhat colder air from a building high pressure ridge over Northern Ontario. This will set the stage for a band of potentially significant freezing rain just north of Lake Erie and a mixture of snow and some freezing rain and ice pellets from southwestern Ontario towards the greater Toronto area and just north of Lake Ontario. Regions farther north will likely receive some snow but below the warning threshold of 15 centimetres. Regions further south such as Southren Ontario could see enough snow after it changes over from freezing rain to reach the warning threshold. This is shaping up to be a major weather event for our region.
The precipitation will begin this evening in the southwest and quickly envelop much of southern Ontario by dawn..Making for a potentially hazardous Wednesday morning commute. Significant ice accretion and snowfall of 15 centimetres is likely in many areas before it tapers off late Wednesday night.
Please stay tuned to Environment Canada as this watch will likely be upgraded to appropriate warnings during the day today.
Here is what The Weather Channel is saying for Niagara Falls (USA) on Wednesday...
Freezing rain in the morning should become a wintry mix for a short time in the afternoon before changing over to snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 33F. Winds NE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of precip 90%. 2 to 3 inches of snow expected.
...The NWS is calling for 3-5 inches of snow for the falls after it changes over from freezing rain.
Don-
Do you think any winter advisory, watch or warning will be issued for the north towns for the expected winter weather tonight into tomorrow?
mike,
I don't know where you got your information, but the NWS late morning forecast calls for around an inch. Please make an effort to post accurately on this blog.
I forecast 2-3" by evening in my forecast at 11 last night. The problem continues to be p-type during the transition from rain to snow; how much sleet and/or freezing rain is likely. My own feeling and, I think, Mike Cejka's feeling is for more frozen precip than the NWS has been calling for up until now. They may up the ante in their late afternoon zones (remember the Zone forecast, not the point-and-click on the map forecast, is their superior product).
Waiting for the late afternoon NAM run. P-type and timing for a change to Frz Rain & Sleet continue to be uncertain, as the NAM is quicker with the cold air than is the 12 GFS. Accumulating snow a little more likely tomorrow to the north, in the deeper cold air. Everybody will be over to all snow later in the day.
Details with my updated forecast on News 4 this evening.
...The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a major severe weather outbreak today and tonight...
The Storm Prediction Center is forecasting the development of a few strong, long-track tornadoes over parts of the Mid South later today and tonight. There is also a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of eastern Oklahoma/southern Missouri east-northeastward into the Ohio River Valley and across the lower Mississippi River Valley.
http://www.weather.gov/
Is this rare for this time of year , Lucky for us we aren't getting it that bad.
Don how serious do you think the flood threat may be tomorrow as the NWS point and click forcast is showing a 1-2 inch rainfall overnight. The caz, buffalo, and cayuga creeks in the West Seneca / South Buffalo area all appeared to be largely ice free but running very high even before another night of heavy rainfall. Caz looked by far the highest just about at bankfull already.
This is still not a confident forecast for p-type tomorrow, and my friends at the NWS feel the same low confidence.
As of early evening, it looks like a Wintry Mix will develop sometime after midnight mainly from the metro area northward, (after a period of soaking rain), while the soaking rain stays as rain in the s tier. The precise dividing line is near impossible to determine, so pls don't ask about specific towns at this point. It does look like a slick AM drive from the City northward; Buffalo Stowns more uncertain; S tier all rain. The flood threat will worsen on some streams, creeks and rivers tomorrow due to the surge of heavy rain producing copious runoff.
For now, I'm sticking with the 2-3 inches north tom'w I'd forecast last night and another 1-2 or 3" will be possible tomorrow night as everybody goes over to all snow.
Still looks like a Bitter Blast later Saturday night into Sunday.
Its kinda funny, the graphical 2-d is so exact with the cut-off line between rain and snow. It shows buffalo northward getting near 6 inches and places like hamburg getting all rain. It must be a really really tough call. Things like this you have to wait until its happening to find out where that dividing line is. =)
rich,
It WOULD be nice if I could just look at Super Microcast or another model and say, "That's the way it's going to be!" The graphical representation of a model does make it look almost easy. Of course, there is a whole plethora of models to look at, and when it comes to a small geographical region--in the mesoscale--none have identical solutions, even from run to run.
If you read the late afternoon NWS Area Forecast Discussion, you'll see they don't have any more confidence on this tough call than I do. Misery loves company!
Buffalo is down to 37 degrees, it's actually 36 here in boston. That could be because the boston valley is a deep but quite far north valley, some of that cold air could be coming into the valley. Wind is virtually calm, of course a 600ft hill is blocking it. seems kinda cold, could we even down here get a mix. it doesn't have to drop far only 4 degrees, unless that low pumps in warmer air, we could have a situation, but I'm not worried, south of hamburg and orchard park usually miss ice storms, when its rain to the south and cold with ice to the north.
Don
This winter and lets say past winters have been very mild since i'd say 2003 with the exception of the suprise which was a wild week. Is there any type of cycle that weather takes decade to decade? for me it seemed that 1980 till 2001-02 we had winters that lasted all winter with great snowmobiling and skiing with many winters being pretty snowy. I am just looking for someones opinion on weather this is a cyclical thing or a real sign of global warming.
Thanks for haing this blog. I like being able to ask the pros about weather. You all do a great job!! Kudos
PS with all of the rain and ice in the winter could we see flooding along the Niagara River up in niagara falls.
Just a little worried since i live on the river.
Thanks
ru--there's nothing necessarily cyclical from decade to decade. Actually, we had some very warm winters during parts of the 80s and 90s as well. It's seldom that WNY weather stays exceptionally cold all winter. Even the brutal winter of 76-77 had a substantial thaw during the 2nd half.
It's highly likely but not absolutely certain that global warming is playing a role in our milder winters.
marinecore; there certainly is a risk of sleet and freezing rain, depending on the precise depth of the subfreezing layer. The cold air may be a little shallower over srn Erie Co, which would increase the risk of freezing rain, rather than sleet. We also will have to add some thunder and lightning to the forecast toward morning, mainly south of the City.
DON, can you please explain this to me! Its for Amherst/ N. Erie ZONE cast from the NWS.
Tonight: A chance of rain before 1am, then periods of snow and sleet. Low around 33. Northeast wind between 7 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.
Wednesday: Periods of snow and sleet, mixing with freezing rain after 3pm. High near 34. East wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.
Wednesday Night: Occasional snow showers, mainly between 9pm and midnight. Low around 22. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
If you add up the snowfall amounts, it is anywhere from 6-12 inches of snow! WGRZ is calling for amounts around this too (they say 8" or a little more) Thats a whole lot if we do get that much!!
oh just to add the frezzing rain discussion has buffalo and points south in red for frezzing rain, I'm assuming red is bad.
freezing*
chris,
That's not the Zone forecast. That's the point-and-click, which is a largely automated product and is generally quite inferior to the Zone forecast. Go to text forecast and click on Zone Forecast, not the map.
In this particular case, however, even the superior human-worded forecast leads to moderate to fairly heavy snowfall totals.
The cold air looks too shallow for quite that much snow (I'm addressing the NWS forecast, not the WGRZ "forecast" for various reasons) and there may be alternating periods of sleet and possible freezing rain during the day to hold totals down somewhat. The cold air deepens enough at night to go to all snow for all locations.
Heavier snow can't be ruled out, but the GFS in the 18z run is still warmer than the NAM. You really have to blend models in a nail-biter like this. It looks like the NWS left things as they were in afternoon zones. I will be making some adjustments for the 11pm cast based on the 00z NAM being added to the mix.
Hi Don,
In reading this blog I thought about the previous summer and the drought conditions we were in. Is the precipitation we're picking up this winter helping replace the water tables that were diminished last summer,--Or is most of the moisture running off because the of the frost layer ? Thanx
So your not allowed to address WGRZ or WKBW's forecasts?? Or you choose not to? In this case, WGRZ's forecast is quite different from yours; and I would say WKBW's is too, but I have not seen their forecast... however if it means anything to you, Im going with your forecast as I always do! There are many times when your forecast is the "out layer" of the 3 stations... and the funny thing is... your usially the "winner" Your the closest, or you nail it on the head. The other two stations are not half as accurate or specific as you are. WGRZ hired a private company to say that they had the most accurate forecast in WNY TV... well they deff do not! You know what your doing, and you know how to handle your job very well! The other two stations could learn a thing or two from you... espicially that Chesley guy!... is he even a "real" meteorologist? I know Kevin is not. Aaron from ch 7 is pretty good. Andy from ch 2 is ok. Everyone else... not as good. Mike, MB, Lindsay, and you are the "winning team!" Keep up the good work! :)
rich,
Thanks for your compliments. No, I'm not forbidden to comment on other stations' forecasts; I guess I usually choose not to. It's not a level playing field as it is, say, in Boston, Minneapolis, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, and quite a few other tv markets.
The only other forecast I pay attention to locally is that of our excellent NWS Buffalo Forecast Office--although I try not to look at their forecast until I've done my own analysis, because if I do look first, I tend to wade into the data with a preconceived notion on how things are supposed to turn out. I've posted this before, I think. If I do my work and come up with a forecast which is wildly opposite of the NWS forecast, I'll at least go back over my work to make sure I've done what I'm supposed to do.
No big change in my late evening forecast: Temps are dropping pretty quickly on this NE flow, and that does worry me--but I'm going to stick with the cold air being shallow enough for occasional sleet and or freezing rain holding down snow accumulation until late in the day. Best chance for heavier snow continues to be closer to Lk Ontario.
Flood threat will increase as heavy rain will be falling over the headwaters of many streams and creeks before changeover to wintry precip can take hold. Liquid should exceed 1" in many locations, based on new model runs.
P.S. to rich: In addition to the NWS forecast, I also look at the forecasts from my team which precede my shift--of course!
Don I've been noticing the school net sites in the immediate Buffalo Southtowns, West Seneca/Orchard Park have been dropping quickly and as of right now are in the 32-33 degree range.
You mention that a sleet mix will keep down the snow accumulations but is their any worry about freezing rain becomming an issue as far as ice buildup overnight or are we mainly looking at snow OR sleet mix OR rain event only.
Thanks!
44 fatalities in yesterday/last night's enormous severe wx outbreak in Tenn, Ky, Ar, Ms. This is one of the largest death tolls in an outbreak in some time, and truly extraordinary in early February.
Don,
Is it just a blip or are the average wind speeds significantly higher? It seems that every transition from a high to low pressure mass is increasingly windy/stormy. I expect westerly weather in a LaNina but it seems like we keep getting southerly or sw systems clobbering us - global change or just abnormal LaNina?
The winds at the surface, anonymous, are not reflective of the wind direction in the polar and subtropical jetstreams. This la nina has been doing mostly what is expected, and the strong upper level winds associated with a la nina of this strength are to be expected. Surface storm systems (lows) have been vigorous, and the pressure gradient between them and the following high pressure systems has frequently been tight enough for strong or high winds.
Latest analysis show la nina will hang tough at least well into the spring.
Precipitation in a bit of a lull at 9am, but another surge of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will arrive in a couple of hours.
P-type STILL a tough call, because of the shallowness of the cold air. What's falling now on the Niag Frontier is mostly freezing rain, but I would expect a Wintry Mix, oscillating between freezing rain, sleet, and snow from Erie & Wyom Cos northward, with mainly rain closer to the PA line. Best chance for somewhat heavier snow accum continues to be further north toward Lk Ontario. A change to all snow will occur first north of BUF later today and last in the distant srn tier. 2-3" possible today--mostly north--and another 2-3" or so possible tonight across the region, w/leftover lt snow shwrs Thur AM.
The NWS has a quick blurb on its current Hazardous Weather Outlook about the potential of another wind event over the weekend. I guess we will stay tuned, again!!
I am not sure what is worse. Normal winter snow and cold, or having it warmer with these fairly constant severe weather out breaks. There is one good thing about this winter, on the couple areas of our house that gets ice buildup, there is none this year!!
Thanks Don and the rest of the Channel 4 weather team for this blog. I don't understand everything that is written but I am learning quite a bit about weather forecasting.
Oh, I just talked to one of our crews that is traveling to Gainesville via the Arcade area and they said everything is iced up once you get out of Arcade, but the roads are still good.
I think I understand the concept behind different types of wintry mix precip, but I'm really confused about why we'd get anything besides snow since it's 30 degreees right now. Is there a layer of warm air between sky and ground that makes it freeze on contact? It's amazing how sometimes the actual air temp doesn't necessarily produce the precip you'd expect.
The actual temperature does affect what P-type you get. But the temperatures aloft, in a cross section, are the determining factor. You can have very warm air flooding in just a short distance off the surface. In that case, if the surface temperature is 18 degrees, you're going to get freezing rain because the cold layer is so very shallow. If the cold air near the sfc is just slightly deeper, you'll get rain from the warm layer freezing into ice pellets/sleet before it hits the sfc. It takes fairly deep cold air with abundant moisture aloft in what would be a snow crystal growth region to get snow. In that case, the sfc temp could actually be a little warmer than freezing, but the deep cold layer aloft would allow snow to fall--albeit it would be a heavier, water-laden snow in those circumstance.
Don, Do you think the freezing rain may add up enough to cause any power outages or tree damage in Niagara county? Are we expecting strong winds with this cold air arriving on Sunday? Sure glad to see it is now not expected to get quite as cold as predicted yesterday. TYIA
dw; I don't expect power outages.
Sunday' "blast" no longer looks like a blast. Cold & Windy, but nothing extraordinary. Some limited lake snow potential late Saturday/Saturday night, probably Ski Co, but maybe a brief period a little further north.
ok, thank you Don. That is good to hear.
Just got a glimpse of Ellicott Creek as I drove by at Maple & NForest and it is high - WIVB at noon says some sewers might back up between Maple & French bordering Ellicott Creek and I can certainly see why. This morning's dry slot we have been experiencing may have saved a few basements - hope we don't get much more liquid.
Don, do you have a "Snow Dance" in your bag of tricks?
Patchy Freezing Rain will be on the increase during the late afternoon, with mainly rain closer to the PA line. Changeover to snow is still a ways off, because it's going to take a few hours longer for the cold air to deepen sufficiently.
So far, all flood warnings for the Alleg & Gen rvrs, the Cayuga, Caz, and Elicott Creeks involve only relatively minor flooding.
Light snow has just begun in the Middleport area. (eastern Niagara County)
Flood Warnings for Cazenovia and Cayuga Creeks have been cancelled. However, minor flooding is a possibility in low lying areas east of Orchard Park and South of Ridge Road in West Seneca as well as in Cazenovia Park in South Buffalo. Also minor flooding may be found in low lying areas of Lancaster and Alden. Meantime, a Winter Weather ADVISORY continues in effect for all of WNY thru 6am Thursday. As colder air pushes in, a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow will make for tricky travel on untreated roadways late this afternoon and evening. Drivers use extra caution.
Snow in south-Central Ontario in ski country with 10 to 15 cm/4 to 6 inches before tapering off overnight. Had a blast of snow earlier this morning then a nice lull before things picked up late this afternoon. Toronto area looking at 15 to 25 cm in spots(6-10 inches) this eve./overnight. Some parts of Metro Toronto got 3 to 5 inches of snow in the morning burst.
Environment Canada calling for windy and some LES Sunday Don but holding off on bitter cold temps..maybe 30 F.
If you get a chance to catch your breath this evening, why the moderation for Sunday temps?
tx
I meant to add....tragedy about the tornadoes in the U-S South. Don, I believe it was the 6:15 pm weather yesterday where you showed the watch boxes stretching from Ohio to Arkansas..you pulled no punches saying what was happening down there was setting up as a dangerous situation. Unfortunately, it turned out to be such.
Travel extremely hazardous across much of WNY early this evening due to freezing rain and sleet. If you must travel, use extreme caution. Skyway is being closed and many accidents and spin-outs have already occurred in and around the Buffalo metro area. Precip will turn to all snow later tonight. Again, please use extreme caution if you must travel tonight.
Very surprised this doesnt qualify for Winter Storm Warning, Skyway closeds, some highways closed. I just drove from North Boston to Blasdell. 2nd most difficult driving conditions this winter so far, aside from last weds blizzard conditions. Roads are HORRIBLE, drive slow or spin out. Those are your 2 options. Once it turns over to snow on top of the layer of freezing rain and sleet, it will only get worse. BE CAREFUL!!!
Doesn't look like it will turn over to snow. SPC put out a nice mesoscale discussion for the area concerning an h85 jet that is allowing some warmer air aloft to get into the area, which is preventing the change from PL to SN. Precip looks to be about over anyhow. In any case, for those that paid attention to last night's MOS, 12Z NAM MOS was spitting out 8 in of snow while the GFS spit out 6 in of snow. Also, check out the temp gradient between here and just to the south. Mid 60's in S PA.
There does appear to be a dry slot moving in from the SW which will cut down on the rate of ice accumulation. As for the precip being "over," that's not the case. There will be wraparound snow moving in much later tonight from a second low still to our west, centered near South Bend, In and moving east.
I have no idea what your point is concerning last night's MOS. First, you're authoritavely stating the precip is "over" and next, you're suggesting someone should have paid more attention to the snow output from last night's MOS. Which is it, anonymous? I did pay attention to that, and toned it way down because I was convinced the cold air would be too shallow for anywhere near that max output in the NAM MOS.
Don, figure you could use as many reports as possible as you prepare for the 11:00 show! I live at 1500 feet on Cole Rd. in Orchard Park, and we've had about 1/10" of ice accretion so far. We had a period of +TSPL between 6:30 and 7:00 this evening, then some -FZRA that lasted until around 7:30. Right now we're in a lull but that east wind has picked up noticeably since the precip ended! When I stick my head outside I hear lots of crackling going on. Downright nasty out there and it looks like another slug of precip is about to move in...
Sup Kulaignman,,Glad To See You In The Buffalo Weather Blog!!!!!!!!!
Thanks kulaginman.
Although a dry slot is pushing in from the SW, we still have a broad area of lift (called isentropic lift--feel free to Google that one!) occurring from Chautauqua Co to the NE, generating some new precip overhead, so that drying may have a little more trouble establishing itself with a frontal boundary to our south.
Thought you might find it interesting ti know that we have been experiencing some thunder and lightning here in Silver Springs in the past half hour or so. I've never seen thunder and lightning in these conditions before. I find this fascinating.
Don Speaking of isentropic lift Can You Tell Me How Orographic Lift Occurs........I Believe West Virginia Got 20 Inches From That Setup During This Winter....
Btw What Was That Magnificient cool mode Radar You Used Tonight ..I Beleive That Was The First Time Seeing That ...Don You Should Really Use That It Is Way too Attractive I Wonder How The HD MODE Is Going To Look Like?
barrie1:
Forgot to answer your earlier question. I pulled back on the cold outbreak for Sunday for the simple reason that 3 global models were pulling back, both on strength of the short wave ushering in the colder air, and because they sent the coldest part of its not-that-cold circulation south of us into PA & WVA.
The presence of lightning in this type of situation isn't all that unusual. Tremendous thermal contrast with high upward velocity in convective cells, and sleet itself can generate static charges in the atmosphere.
I don't know about elsewhere, but we have heavy icing occurring here in West Seneca/Orchard Park at about 9:20...Don...when is the changeover to snow expected?...thanks!
Up to 1/8" ice accretion here at the foot of the Boston Hills, but interestingly my temp has risen from 29F at 6:00 this evening to 32F now! Farther south in Jamestown, the wind has veered all the way from the northeast to the south in the last couple hours, and their temp has risen to 36F. Looks like the low pressure center is somewhere near the Chautauqua County shoreline right now. Maybe southern parts of the DMA will see a quick rise in temp to melt some of the ice off the trees, followed by a quick drop as the low center passes by? Interesting stuff tonight!
We've changed to snow in the Village of Lewiston now.
Don,
Still some -FZDZ occurring here on Cole Road. No evidence of snow mixing in just yet. My temp is holding at 32F. Winds have dropped off to pretty much nothing for the time being.
Just enough lift for all freezing drizzle across the Niag Frontier, with hazardous travel continuing. Any snow which develops toward dawn will be insignificant by comparison.
Updated fcast coming up on News 4 at 11.
Don,
Do you think all of WNY will see some measureable snow on Saturday?... more than we got tonight? I know LES is forecasted for ski country Sat night... any LES for the N. towns this wknd?
Travel will remain hazardous into the early morning hours, with widespread freezing drizzle north of the srn tier, likely turning to Sct Lt Snow Shwrs on the Niagara Frontier slowly from NW to SE. Any untreated roads, sidewalks, and parking lots will remain extremely slippery at the start of the AM commute.
Sunday looks a little colder and windier again in tonight's model runs. Not as cold as first indicated on Monday, but cold enough--with some blowing snow possible Saturday night and Sunday. Ntowns lake snow looks unlikely at this point, Sam, but not entirely out of the question--could be a Lk Huron connection from time to time bringing in a little LES.
Don,
Travel conditions down here in Fredonia and out to Forestville and Cherry Creek are horrible. Not one plow was out and all major routes were left untreated up through 8:30 this morning. Many cars as well as my own got stuck trying to make it up SR-83 towards cherry creek right in the middle of the road. We had quite a bit of rain late last night with thunder and lightening which left us with good sheet of ice on the roads and I woke up to about 3 or so inches of snow on top of that. I wasn't expecting it to be this bad, but then again, I didn't see one plow for the 1 1/2 hours I was on the roads trying to get to work.
Thought I give you a heads up on how things really look down here.
Barrie-area in south central Ontario got well over 35 cm(14 inches) of snow in some spots.
First time in many year in-town city schools were closed. School closures in the County are not unsual, but for the entire district to close schools is rare indeed. Plenty of folks couldn't get out of their driveways, and if they did, getting up the residential street was a chore. First year I have had snow tires--they are a godsend. Lovely sunshine now--a winter wonderland.
Thanks, Chris. Maybe the roads dept got a sense of security from having missed much of last evening's icing to the north.
IMPORTANT POINT: I've posted a couple of times on this blog that for me, the NWS Zone Forecast, rather than the point 'n click map forecast, was the preferred product. That's still the case, BUT the point 'n click is going to be getting better in the near future. MIC (Meteorologist-in-Charge)Tom Niziol tells me the resolution on that product is going to be coming down to an extraordinary level which will allow even more detail.
So, allow me to amend my original suggestion: look at BOTH. There are times when they're going to match up very differently. But you may become more skilled by looking at both in extrapolating how certain content got into each product.
How is the "weather event" shaping up for Saturday? Does it look the same as yesterday? Or does it look like it will be a little more "intense"... or "weaker" for us than it looked yesterday?
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