Friday "Clipper" May Have a Little Punch
Models are running late this Wednesday AM. However, there are indications Friday's clipper will have enough support to produce a few inches of snow, of the wet & slushy variety. Clippers don't usually carry much moisture, being cut off from the Gulf. This one will have a strong jet to maximize lift, and that should squeeze out a little more precip than the typical clipper. Friday's snow, though, will be in a warm advection pattern (southerly), so its quality will be wetter. Colder air in the wraparound circulation will leave us with snow showers Friday night and a few leftover snow showers for a slightly colder Saturday.
It stays relatively Frigid Wed-Thur, a little warmer with the clipper, then slightly colder on Saturday, ahead of more significant warming on Sunday. Next week looks rather active as well.
It stays relatively Frigid Wed-Thur, a little warmer with the clipper, then slightly colder on Saturday, ahead of more significant warming on Sunday. Next week looks rather active as well.
posted by Don Paul at
10:21 AM
95 Comments:
Good morning Don. What is the timing on this clipper? My wife is traveling to the Finger Lakes region Friday evening, and returning Sat. afternoon.Thanks!
by afternoon into the evening. More later--off to a BWEC meeting.
How is that going? How is the committee (funding/ideas) progressing?
-Matt from OP
I love postings in which they mock the WIVB staff and cannot use proper grammer. WIVB, keep up the good work! Weather is never an exact science.
It seems like it wasn't so long ago that everyone was wondering if we were ever going to have real winter weather this season. Have we made up some of the snowfall we've been short on?
perhaps, anon, it would serve you well to study up on meteorology and learn to watch these systems. You could also pay a bit more attention to what the bloggers provide as the situation unfolds.
It seems that you would benefit fromt he knowledge and sometimes you have to go and find out for yourself. There are lots of different online forecasts for your area. Dont just depend on TV and Radio. Be proactive about getting accurate information.
The forecasting was as good as it should be. It gets tricky with these types of storms.
I agree that the language of the "warning" was overstated, but apparently warning doesnt mean definite, as Don pointed out in the previous thread.
I'm sorry you lost business, but maybe if its that important, you wouldnt just rely on Don's forecast?
As I said, we're generally not going to allow rude and ignorant posts to stand, so a couple from an individual will be gone.
Constructive criticism, fine. Rudeness? Nope.
Matt--BWEC is coming along extremely well in its early stages.
On Friday, March 7th, we're going to have a "Meet 'n Greet" session during the lunch hour (sorry, lunch will not be served--coffee and bottled water, but you can BYO lunch)at the Buffalo Convention & Visitors Bureau in Main Place Mall. All the board members will be there, including Tom Niziol and me.
This is for the public to get a very brief presentation of what this tremendous project is about, and who we are. We're hoping some of you may be able to lend a hand....details on the meeting time, etc, in a separate thread Monday.
marshall stack,
We have made up some ground. We're about 8 inches behind normal, which is not a huge anomaly. Since early March is looking rather active, that gap may yet end up getting closed.
I WANT to win a t-shirt !!!!!! how long do you anticipate the contest running for?
The contest ends Sunday night, Mar 2.
10 shirts a night. Just go to wivb.com and click on WIVB Contests to enter.
You have to watch to find out if you won. (There's ALWAYS a catch! Heh, heh!)
thanks don, i have entered, just curious since they are such a big hit why not produce more and sell and give the money to a charity?
i just read in the buffalo news that the storm that didn t materialize was the result of the angle of the sun? is this something out of the ordinary? lets hope this "clipper" the falls victim to it too!!!!
No, not out of the ordinary. When snowfall is light to begin with, the higher angle of the sun in late winter allows more of the sun's energy to reach the earth's surface. The melting, especially on darker pavement, can outpace the accumulation until sunset with light snow, and that's what happened during the ligher-than-expected snowfall yesterday.
Friday afternoon's snow will occur with a moderating southerly wind, so that will likely help hold daytime accumulation down somewhat.
interesting stuff, i'd never cut it as a meteorologist........good blog Don thanks for the info
Hi Don
Okay--you have peaked my interest here with your last comment in your thread that next week looks rather active.
I appreciate it is very, very early, but what sort of info. from computer models etc etc do you have that suggest this?
Are we talking active as in snow, rain, wind, temperature swings?
Should I get out my spring jacket(lol).
Thanks Don
Don...we are returning (regretfully) from Florida Friday evening. Any issues with flying into Buffalo that you can see? (A little chilly here...20+ cooler than yesterday!)
Thanks for the info...
Spencer
Spencer's question got me to thinking - I lived in Phoenix about ten years ago, and I remember an occasion where they closed Sky Harbor (the airport) due to excessive heat, which supposedly prevented planes from generating enough lift to take off. How does that work? I thought warm air was denser than cold air...
Sky Harbor, by the way, is the coolest name *ever* for an airport.
spencer,
While we may have some snow (a slight chance of freezing rain), I wouldn't anticipate problems for arrivals.
marshall,
No, warm air is less dense than cold air. That's why mets' ears find it odd when people say "the air feels so heavy" in warm & humid patterns. Quite the opposite.
I am enjoying the snow down here near Chautauqua. It seems all wrong when grass is showing in Feb. We got a few new inches last night and the spruces are bending low with their snow loads. The deep cold is something I have to keep on top of with lambs about to be born so I always check wit WIVB for the night temps. Keep up the good work, Don. You are the quarter back on my dream team of weather forecasting! This blog is getting better each week too.
Hi Don
Appreciate you are busy---but if you have a moment--again I ask what indicators are out there that suggest active weather next week--and possibly what type.
When you can.........
Thank you.
Our Super Microcast and FutureWatch models are both indicating a tendency for Friday snow to change to a wintry mix or freezing rain for a time.
That's certainly a possibility, since a southerly flow ahead of the clipper will be eroding the arctic air, allowing it to become more shallow. The best chance for a few inches accumulation will be in the higher terrain. This will be a vigorous clipper but, again, there's a limit to how much moisture can be squeezed out of such a system. And with temps moving up to or a little above freezing during Friday, there will be some melting going on until at least early evening, particularly in the lower elevations.
barrie1...
The period beyond Monday is very low confidence, so I'm going to avoid going into details of such an uncertain scenario. Both the GFS and the European show what's called a "cutoff" low forming near the S Atlantic seaboard (a "cutoff" is a low that's cut off from the prevailing upper level steering winds, with a closed circulation, rather than the more common open wave which is easily transported by those winds).
If that cutoff were to verify, it's impossible at this point to determine whether the NW periphery of its circulation would reach all the way into our region, or remain S & E of us.
Thanks for your response Don.
Have a good night.
Stay warm!
Don,I'm kind of new to the blog. Whatis the BWEC,and can do I get involed in it?
At least things will be getting somewhat interesting again by Tuesday. After an unseasonably mild Monday, with a few showers, models are converging on a deepening, almost cutoff, low pressure system taking shape over the south and coming slowly up the western spine of the Appalachians on Tuesday. On first glance, this looks more wet than white, with a changeover to some limited snow later Tuesday night. There isn't going to be any true arctic air in place, so the coldest solution for Tuesday right now will be a mix. However, the temps are marginal enough where some slushy snow could enter into the picture with more cooling of the atmosphere created by a vigorous storm system with its lift potential. It also looks, on tonight's model blend, like a strong easterly flow will bring in abundant Atlantic moisture. Since it's only Wednesday, there's lots of time for changes on path, intensity, and p-type. There are early signs of another cold blast late next week, which might be accompanied by some snow.
eeed,
If you go back to the archive during the week of 1/20, you'll find a lengthy blog by me explaining what BWEC is. Hope that helps.
Sheesh! Sorry for the bad puncuation.The spacebar is there for a reason,isn't it?
Is next week's modeled "cut-off" the result of an Atlantic block (neg NAO)? Seems like all the storms this winter have moved along quickly in a progressive flow, so just wondering why this next one might get hung up in the lower latitudes...
Thanks Don.I read your post on the BWEC. Sounds fantastic!You're right, people have a passion and love for weather. This will be a great success. I never thought The Weather Channel would survive. How can you talk about weather 24 hrs. a day,I thought.Now I know. When people hear about Buffalo,weather is the first thing that comes to mind,snow mainly. It will be a great centerpiece on our Waterfront, and a great educator, too. Hopefully we can get to meet you there!
Channel 4 is calling for a high of 46 Monday? I have analyzed the data and would be shocked if we get above 40 or 41.
You've analysed the data???? Why don't you do something to HELP me, Dr. Bluestein!!!???
gregn, there's no sign of a negative NAO in what's called ensemble model runs, though it might spike low for a couple of days if that southern low becomes intense.
The models look more impressive this morning on tomorrow's clipper. NWS have upped the snow totals to 3-5", so maybe we'll see a winter weather advisory issued by the end of the day.
Baby; it's cold out there today. When it's going to warm up, Don?
Will this be the last blast of arctic air for the season? I noticed there was a area of warmer air in the North of Alaska...40Degrees!
hello don
my comment has nothing to do with this blog topic but i have to tell you what a great bunch of weather personalities you have, each compliments the other and the station never misses a beat. This really goes to the entire news 4 staff but kudos definately go out to your weather staff. Great job Don!!!!!!!!
your weather forecasting is great. the only problem with channel 4 is Viagara commercials during dinner and the 700 club...Pat Robertson is a hippocrate and judges others lest not to be judged...
I boycott your sponsors during his AWFUL show!
I hate it, too when my 4 yr old asked me during dinner, "mommy what's E.D.?" get those commercials out of there!!!!! NOT appropriate for families!!!!!!!
Don-
So somethings changing with this clipper because WBEN radio said we can expect 3-6 inches total tomorrow, and tomorrow night. Thats a big difference from the 1-2 inches you gave for the lower elevations last night.
There are talks of maybe an advisory being issued... what are your thoughts on that?
The NWS is calling for 3-5 inches, with up to 6 inches on the hills. That is not exactly a "minor" amount of snow if we do get that much. The high temp for tomorrow is expecter to be 32 degrees.
THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOW END ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWS IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE COMES WITH THIS CLIPPER. WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARMING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING THE
HIGHER END OF 6 INCHES MAY BE A BIT HIGH...BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT
THESE AMOUNTS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN A LITTLE COLDER AND OROGRAPHICS WILL MAXIMIZE LIFT.
My view is 3-5" is quite a bit too high for the daylight hours tomorrow, and the models' qpf simply doesn't support that range. In addition, our Super Microcast and FutureWatch models continue to be aggressive (possibly too aggressive) in projecting mixed precip later tomorrow.
However, there appears to be more potential for a few inches tomorrow evening, along with a gusty wind. Maybe 2-4" at night, after 1-2 max tom'w afternoon. The 4 would apply more to higher terrain.
More later.
Hello Don. When do we usually start to see warmer weather? Late march?
As I said last night in this blog, I analyzed the data and have no idea how you guys could predict a high of 46 Monday, when 40 or 41 was more in order.
I am glad to see you corrected your mistake today and are now saying 41. There have been way too many blown forecasts recently, and we need to start getting a little more accuracy.
Thank you!
Currently looks like 1-2" Fri afternoon, and another 1-2" Fri evening. Best chance for higher range of 4, maybe 5 inches will be on hills. The timing of the best dynamics does appear to coincide with the afternoon commute, and the snow may come down hard enough for a short while to produce slick roads. I'm leaving in the possibility of some sleet or freezing rain mixing in during that time due to warm advection on a gusty southerly wind. Both Super Microcast and FutureWatch continue to show some mixed precip in that time period, though just a bit less aggressively than previous runs.
Well, analyser--how 'bout filling us in on how you "analyse?" That ought to make an interesting read.
By the way, I'm still going for 45 and my friends at the NWS are going for the mid 40s.
You're a funny one, you are (old line from movies in the 40s).
eden farmer: there's no consistency with when steadier warming occurs around here in late winter/early spring. Obviously, our "normal" highs and lows have been going up bit by bit for a few weeks. Yet we just had our 2nd coldest morning of the winter in Buffalo this morning, at 3 degrees.
Hey now here is something facinating where biology meets meteorology. I just read that the most common seed for snowflakes they just discovered was not a bit o' dust or a particle but bacteria! Yahoo just picked up the story about a half hour ago from Science mag.Science: http://www.sciencemag.org It's simple to find the story at Yahoo News under Science. They sampled snow all around the world.
So 1-3" in the day, and 2-4" at night. Total would be 3-7", with 7" being most likely in the hills.
Don, do you think an advisory will be issued?
TIMING FOR THIS CLIPPER LOOKS TO BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...THEN REACHING THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO
REGION BY EARLY EVENING. THE FAST MOVEMENT SHOULD LIMIT ACCUMS TO
THE 2-3 INCH RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS WE MAY SEE A PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE FRIDAY EVENING RUSH HOUR. HAVE HELD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORIES FOR NOW GIVEN THE MARGINAL AMOUNTS...BUT WE MAY
NEED TO CONSIDER A HEADLINE FOR IMPACT IF THE TIMING STILL APPEARS
TO AFFECT THE EVENING DRIVE.
THE SECOND BATCH OF SNOW WOULD MOVE INTO WESTERN NY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THEN CROSS THE
REST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THIS TO PRODUCE ANOTHER 1-2
INCHES OF ACCUM...BUT MAY SEE MORE THAN THAT IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE
REGIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER AND ALSO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT MAY BEGIN AS WELL. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THIS CLIPPER BY SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 3-6 INCHES, WITH MORE THAN THAT POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER HILL TOPS.
Anonymous--I'm going for 1, possibly 2 max by evening, beginning around 2pm, and 1-2 max overnight. There are no 7s in there-I can't imagine an advisory on this unless we get a complete change in qpf potential.
yea, im going with your forecast! idk what the NWS sees in this clipper. thanks Don!
Missed your input tonight, analyser. Darn--I was counting on your learned assistance!
Tuesday's storm looks mainly wet at this point, with no arctic air in place, but still can't rule out a little frz rain at the start, and there should be a gradual change to a light mix or snow for Wednesday. Colder again at week's end.
So all in all,not a bad trip today(Fri) for my bride from here to Canadaigua,leaving around dark,returning Sat. afternoon? Thanks, Don,for keeping us so updated, you are THE BEST!
It's 4F here now at 12:30. Anyone else on here have their temps to post. I understand quite a few places got colder than here last night. I don't think we went below 6.
ok don my curious 8 yr old hit me with the question.. what is meant by your use of the word "models"? my interpretation is you input a bunch of info into the computer where as the coomputer gives you a scenerios, which then you have to determine which is correct. How close am i on this uneducated guess?..... Be nice..... thanks :)
By "models" I always figured maybe Heidi Klum and Cindy Crawford were in a room somewhere analyzing data and checking radar reports. Is that not the case?
:)
In general terms a "model" is an organized collection of statistical data that is used to predict or simulate what will happen next by using probability. A very simple trivial model would be a model to predict a coin flip. The program would generate a head or tail based upon the probability of either being 50 percent. Another way to say it is a model is a way of using data to help a computer simulate real events. Having said that, I can't imagine how complex weather models must be, given the variables involved over time. But that's what makes it fun!
In Springville (up on Genesee Rd), I had -6 when I went to bed last night and about 5 this morning around 6 am.
Not sure if the -6 was totally accurate as my other thermometer showed 4 degrees last night.
I also have a question for those who measure snow at their houses. What is the best way to get an accurate measurement? At my house, there is either windswept areas or drifted areas, neither seem like they would give a good measurements.
springvillerob,
If you go back to the archive on this blog from the week of December 8, you'll find a tutorial on how to measure snow--easy reading.
eeed, there will be slick spots tonight, but nothing too awful if they take it slow.
The question on models: You're approximately right, for that age level. The answer can get extremely complex as to how they work, the crunching of the numbers, running of different physics "packages" of equations, etc, so I think you've kept it properly simple.
This little clipper is starting to look pretty impressive. Nice plume of snow starting to build up over the lake, if it holds together should be in town around 3-330ish with maybe 1 - 1.5 inches per hour for a short while. COuld be an interesting ride home for some!
Wet snow is falling and blowing here. It warmed up to 22F in just a couple hours this morning and is now up to 27F at 2:00. This wet stuff and the wind is much harder on the livestock than the bitter cold like we had last night.
the clipper is here , the clipper is here!!!!!!! and it does have some punch to it!!!!!!!!!
1-2" by evening; 1-2" overnight, spotty minor accum tom'w. Highest amounts in hills to south, some blowing snow.
1.5" per hour? Nope.
Last anonymous, WOW! I feel bad for you! Are you sitting home alone looking out the window watching the fluries fall with this clipper? You should be more excited for the fact that its Friday! Not for a clipper that will drop an inch of snow!
well the nws special weather statement is calling for 2-3 inches with rates of an inch an hour when the heaviest area of snow passes through.
Yes, we know that! Is this a huge massive storm, is that how you view this clipper? its 2-3 inches, and its a very safe bet it will be 2" max! I dont know too many ppl who would get their hopes up, and become excited over something as small as this clipper. It couldnt be snowing any lighter outside right now. I love the weather too, but come on! we've all seen snow before... its not like we're getting 8-12 inches or smthng like that.
General: That statement was issued at 11 45 am. Don said 1-2,then 1-2 overnight, and no 1.5 per hour. He is THE BEST,so that's who we go with.
It's died down here in the South. The roads are pretty clear but slick in some spots. The wind is pretty calm already so I really don't think this is any event to get concerned with, General. Weather is weather you can't expect it to follow a set model every time.
It's picked up again a little here just as Don said it would for drive time. -wet sideways blowing snow is falling but not terrible. Anyone using the Southern Tier Expressway from exit 7 to the PA Border should probably take it easy.
Thanks for the helpful reports, gimmer.
I hope its not a bad thing to post links on here. I was looking to understand how snow clumps today and found this really cool site with pictures of all these wierd types of snow crystals I had never heard of. There are Hollow collums, Capped Columns,Sectored Plates and many more. Hanging out on this blog has gotten me quite interested in the properties of snow. This is an educational site not a commercial site so have a look folks:
http://www.its.caltech.edu/~atomic/snowcrystals/class/class.htm
No, that's a good thing. We've already had quite a number of useful links posted here.
As for this one, Cal Tech's not exactly chopped liver as a source. Thanks.
Thanks Don,
I am just trying to get a feel how this blog is to work and not wanting to come off as a know it all as I am certainly not that knowledgeable. I have a curious mind and this has made me think being on here. Something funny I noticed today, the snow coming at an angle sort of wavered and it was really odd to watch. I could notice it more when it was flying against a solid background. It's hard to describe but it was not at all like the hard blowing snow I get out of the west here. It appeared to be undulating as it fell on a 45 degree angle. This Caltech fellow is quite into his snow flakes. His name is Kenneth G. Libbrecht and he is the Chairman of the Physics Department. SnowCrystals.com is the home for his whole big thing on snow. What fun! It's not so nice out there now I think I will go do the barn chores.
I don't know why no one is reporting the weather conditions in Fredonia and Dunkirk. At around 6:00, we started receiving blizzard-like conditions -- at least two inches an hour coupled with high winds. It's a mess.
I know the gusty wind is whipping things around substantially there, but the latest observation at Dunkirk is S- (light snow) w/1 mile visibility.
No doubt it's nasty, but that's not blizzard-like.
Hello Dunkirk Poster,
It's nasty in this part of Chautauqua County but not a blizzard. I think there could be a potential for some serious accidents if people don't drive at a prudent speed out this way though. The roads are "greazy" with slushy snow and visibility is someone limited by the snow still falling. I'll go stick a ruler in the snow tomorrow and see what it says. It's not nice out there but its winter! The wet snow was sticking to my dog and sheep, LOL. They like the cold like last night better than this.
My puppies, Lucy & Fuzzball, hated the snow when they were tiny. But now that they're 4 months old and a bit bigger, they can't get enough of it (even when they're master is shivering like an out of tune Yugo)!
No snowspotter reports tonight--not a one. Tough night to measure where that downslope breeze is quite gusty. Our Snow Vision on 4Warn Doppler showed a few spots in the hills up to 4", but I'd sure like some ground truth....
2.56 average inches here in northern Orchard Park. Snow continues to fall, albeit very lightly.
-Matt from OP
Thanks Matt.
Around 1.5 inches in Lancaster, just flurries now.
About 2.5" to 3.0" here along the lakeshore in Hamburg-Adam from Hamburg
NWS just sent a few numbers. 2.5" at the NWS, 4" at Perrysburg, and a surprising 4" at Eggertsville. Snow Vision shows an isolated 5" up on one spot of the Chautauqua Ridge.
Another 1-2" to come overnight, with isolated higher amounts on some hilltops well south, and some limited blowing snow making for tricky travel. Snow Shwrs will be most focused on the hills on Saturday, diminishing a little in the PM.
Sunday looks nice, with more sun AM, and some increasing clouds PM. With lt winds, a high of 34-38will feel balmy. Monday, a SSW downslope wind will usher in just a few lt shwrs, but boot interior temps well into the 40s. However, that wind will be crossing the ice of ern L Erie and the Niag Rvr, so I suspect our Canadian viewing area, Grand Island, NW Erie Co and wrn Niag Co will stay in the upper 30s, while places well ENE could approach 50. Tuesday storm system may bring some frz rain early on, but most models still bring in a moderating Atlantic flow which would turn it all to rain by afternoon. Rain may be soaking in the evening--we'll have to watch for possible ice jamming-- and turn over to some lighter snow by Wednesday and colder air filters back in gradually. By Friday, we'll be back in the 20s for a day or so.
Sorry for the typos on that post--running late!
This post has been removed by the author.
Yea Don, I went outside to measure the snow in my driveway (which was down to the pavement before the snow came) and I have a tad over 4 inches here in Getzville. More than I was expecting, but I enjoy the snow!
Ellen Maxwell is smokin hot.
I realize that has nothing to do with weather, but still it's worth saying!
Drove home from Lancaster to West Seneca: Rain,sleet, snow mix.
How much is this little punch, Don? We got some outside things to do today. Also we're planning on driving some today & Sunday. Will it be clear for Monday we gotta take our Dad into Buffalo for a CT.
Hey eeed. I woke up this morning and the snow looked like it got rained on.-Adam from Hamburg
don-
looks like next week will be pretty active. the GFS shows a low coming in next week moving pretty close to us. may be all rain, or a whopping snowstorm for someone. but what i am interested in (and its VERY FAR OFF) is around next friday. a potent low of 983 mB is going to move over Albany and with it looks to be very strong winds and a possible snowstorm. that track would put us right in the area for a lot of snow, and by the way it looks already, we could be in for another snowstorm after tuesday's mess is over. for all you who are interested, here is the link:
http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/7e/gfsx_500p_7e.html
this at least shows early friday into saturday so if you have any feedback please share. don does this perk your interest at all? or anyone from the channel 4 team? could this be the next contender (yes, it is very far off but say this storm was coming tomorrow would we have a major storm to deal with?)? thanks 4 ur time!!
What else but weather-it dose look very intreasting i gess well find out later in the week.-Adam from Hamburg
There has been a steady but light snow coming down pretty much all afternoon in Amhherst area (Sheridan/Hopkins).
Just a dusting on the ground. It appears to be lake effect from lake Ontario. Is that correct?
Paul: No, this is a general snowfall that's part of the tail end of the New England Storm system that's getting shoved out of here. Snow showers will diminish and end later tonight.
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