Next Storm System to Offer a Variety of Winter Precipitation
Gorgeous sunshine finishes off our February weekend before another storm evolving in the Plains takes aim on WNY early this week. While Monday will start off on a sunny note, clouds will gradually overspread the area with light snow moving in late Monday night into Tuesday. There is discrepancy among various weather models as to the exact track and intensity of this storm. However, with temps expected to go close to or above freezing on Tuesday, much of this precipitation may change over to a wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and possibly even plain rain making for tricky travel. An arctic cold front will then change the wintry mix back over to all snow (with some accumulation expected) Tuesday night. Temps will plunge into the teens and single digits into early Wednesday with strong gusty winds, sending wind chills into the subzero range. Sharply cold air will stick around going into midweek, with some general light snow showers and lake snow for some. Winter's not over yet...
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
5:02 PM
81 Comments:
18z GFS,18z New Experimental NAM, 12z GGEM, and 12z Euro all point to nearly all snow for Metro BUF, with all mostly showing 0.8 in of QPF. I agree with MB, especially for the Southern Tier and N PA, that a mix will likely play out. However, once into the BUF metro and north, this may be quite a snow producer.
I also see all snow with (maybe) a sleet mixture on tues afternoon. I see qpf of near an inch. Which usually equals 12+ inches. We will See. =)
MB and Don...great Blog! I check it out every day. I try to check out the Sports Blog, but it gets like one or two comments a day. Now that John Murphy is the new Channel 4 Sports Director, maybe that will get that blog going a little better. Big news in WNY...everybody who loves sports in WNY as much as the weather, check out the sports blog and comment!
BTW...no snow in sunny Florida today! But, thanks for keeping us updated on the weather back home. We'll be back sooner than we'd like!
Spencer
Anon: Regarding the models, they are not all in agreement! The GFS and NAM are stronger and slower than the ECMWF and Canadian models. Quite a snow producer? Perhaps not. Yes, there will be some accumulation, but it's tough to get big snow totals when temps are near the freezing mark..the snow becomes water-laden..cuts down on the totals. Also, there may indeed be a wintry mix across the entire region for a period on Tuesday. More measureable snow is likely for all Tuesday night as the cold air deepens. A different "snow-maker" bears watching on Friday!
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M.B. Great news-Friday is the perfect day for "snow-maker" ! That means maybe some snowmobiling on the week-end. Lets all keep our fingers crossed for some serious accumulation.
Mary Beth-
Tell me if im wrong, but from watching your 6pm weather cast you say a dusting to an inch Mon night, 1-3 inches of snow/ sleet Tue in the day, and 2-4 inches of snow Tue night. If you add that up, some places could see up to 8 inches of snow... likely being the shoreline of niagara county.
Now, as for the expected weather event coming this Friday, I remember a post by you saying that it will be "no biggie"... have you taken that back? It seems as though we might be "on guard" for what could be expected on Friday?
But first things first... we need to get through this Tuesday before we foccus out attention on Friday. Ahhh winter in Buffalo, gotta love it!
-Adam
MB,
If this were to stay all snow for the north towns, what are we talkin here in terms of accumulation?
What are the chances of seeing a 'winter storm warning' over a 'winter weather advisory' with Tuesday's storm? Which one do you see happening?
Winter Storm Watch issued for Detroit-area. 5 to 8 inches of snow possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Across the river in Windsor, no watches/warnings issued by Environment Canada. All of Southern Ontario under Special Weather Statement alerting folks to storm on Tuesday with POSSIBLE accumulation 10 to 15 cm/4 to 6 inches, especially near Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. If this pattern holds, wouldn't be surprised if watches are posted tomorrow morning from Windsor through Niagara to Toronto.
whoa so now friday too? o man this is going to be an exciting week of weather!
needless to say i am ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED that we are NOT under a winter storm watch yet!! whats the dealio? i mean the NOAA website still says we are to get all snow to the north thats going to begin monday night and continue into wednesday, along with gusty winds. sounds REALLY bad to me!! It has niagara falls @ 34 degrees with all snow as of yet, but the buffalo metro is calling for sleet to mix in, so im not thinking we are getting any mix up north, better not, i hate that. im gonna check the models AGAIN and other weather websites AGAIN but im thinking this bears more watching than expected. dont b surprised if u wake up 2 find out we are under a winter storm watch!! lets hope so!!
and i think we are getting more than 8 inches up north, cuz the NOAA website says we could get over 6 inches tuesday night ALONE. not as much if any mixing in niagara and orleans counties either. all i have to say is GET YOUR MEASURING STICKS READY!!
Not 1 storm this season has been all snow, why would mother nature start now? The storm track is the same or similar almost everytime, just enough cold air for little snow, mix, rain, back to light snow. I believe the same will happen with this storm.
Adam: You are correct with my forecast! Based on additional incoming data this evening, I may adjust or tweak the totals...another update at 10 and 11.
Regarding Friday's system, again you're right on with what I said yesterday. But based on the guidance I've seen today, that system looks a bit more impressive. Still a little way's off, so one that just bears watching right now.
Yes, this will be an exciting weather week with Tuesday and Friday to keep us weather lovers "on alert."
I've learned with other storms this winter to not get your hopes up too much... if you know what I mean...
Jim: In all likelihood, I'm going to adjust my totals for the later evening shows, and I will have them for you then. I'm still waiting for incoming data.
Chris: As of now, I'd imagine an "Advisory" for early Tuesday and if we get the heavy wrap around, it could very well turn into a warning Tuesday night into early Wednesday. More later...
So it looks like the "brunt" of this storm will hit *Tuesday night* with the snow... Wednesday morning drive could be the bad one this week.
Don't forget that when all other forecasters predicted that the sky was going to fall (15 to 20 inches if I remember correctly) in mid-December, MB courageously disagreed and came closet to nailing the wintry mix portion of the forecast.
I would think that the NWS would want to wait on watches and warnings, at least for a few more model runs, especially based on what appears to be reoccurring model disagreement and past storm tracks this year.
And speaking of the Detroit office issuing watches, is there any mechanism to keep neighboring NWS offices in line with each other? Do they discuss, come to a consensus, or is there an overriding authority? Say Buffalo interprets a storm track one way, can Binghamton interpret a storm an absolutely different way? Can one issue a watch or a warning, while a NWS with neighboring counties issues nothing (I hope that made sense)?
You are right MB, there is a good amount of time between now and Friday. A lot can change between now and Friday with this next storm system coming our way. The models have been known to "spice" things up with storms 3-4 days before their expected to hit, then a day before it hits, and sometimes even the day of, the models back down on the intensity a lot... so we all know how that can go.
Dan: That is certainly a possibility! Right now the heaviest snowfall accumulations Tuesday night appear in areas north of Buffalo with the southern tier getting the least amount. There will also be Lake Enhancement off of Lake Ontario that may up the totals for Niagara and Orleans counties, especially. More later...
MB... there are going to be a whole lotta people watching you tonight! I love the "more later" at the end of your posts. Now I feel as if I will miss out on something big if I dont watch you tonight. But I almost always do... and matt from op makes a good point... your honestly one of the best mets in my eyes!
Matt Fro from O.P.: I believe you are correct. First of all, when it comes to severe t-storm/tornado WATCHES, those are issued from once central place, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. When it comes to any local t-storm/tornado warnings or any other watches/warnings, those are issued from the individual NWS offices. I believe they often coordinate with each other, but based on the weather criteria they see, they are responsible for the counties in their jurisdiction. You can write to them and ask them if you want more information. Here's their website:http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/
Thanks Eric!
Will Amherst be included in the ..."places that get higher snowfall totals"... category?
Amrst sno lover: Yes.
YAYYYY! however, I prob just jinxed it... lol
Mary Beth, as of what you know tonight, what can you tell us about Friday?... and I too will be watching you tonight!
i say that we all pretend that it is going to rain... as not to jinx our chances of accumulating snow lol
o man great news that niagar county could be on the higher end of the snowfall totals!!!
:) :) :)
really hoping that we get something big out of this because there is less than a month of winter left and I AM READY FOR A WHOPPER OF ALL WHOPPERS!!
u better believe that i am watching you tonight, everyone will (...sorry, thats not meant to creep u out...or put the pressure on u...:)), because we depend on u guys. u know whats up and i depend on u more than ne1 else. so im hoping for a winter storm watch, and a whole lot of snow in the coming days!!!!! :)
Haha W.E.B.W... you are too funny lol!
Hate to break it to ya... but dont quite think this will be the whopper of all snow storms! BUT... this is only a big but... it is however Buffalo, and as we all know, we've been "punk'd" before by mother nature!
Matt: Again, it's a little too far out to pinpoint specifics, but what's piqued my interest today is the vorticity maximums that appear to be located very close to WNY on Friday which cause lift in the atmosphere and contribute to the formation of precipitation. Again, this is just from today's model runs, and it may change.
MB... I know Friday's a ways off, but I see not many other weather sources have picked up on the weather you are seeing now for Friday... We'll see if they jump on-board later in the week.
yeah yeah yeah i get excited
heck i still am! i mean we do not FULLY know what is to come of this storm until it really gets here so we might just get a really big snowstorm (at least in the northern counties), im not even kidding, its a REAL possibility. so hang onto ur hats...esp cuz its gonna get windy on wednesday!!
Right now my gut feeling is (as already said) Friday will be no biggie. However, I hope Im wrong lol!
W.E.B.W.- I totaly feel for ya! Im on your side... Im excited too! I guess I just dont show it as much as you do lol! : )
WOW! MB... blog is busy tonight! And I would have to think it will be busy this whole week...
Drew: That's their call, not mine. It's America.
W.E.B.W: Perhaps windy enough for some brutal wind chills early Wednesday.
Haha MB it is America... I wish that ment every met was as good as you! I really dont care about other forecasts. The one I do care about is yours (WIVB's)
WIVB's weather is better than others due to the fact that you even make mention of Friday's potential storm... whereas other stations would like to tell us the night before it happens lol!
yeah i only heard about friday here first, i cant stand other stations because they dont know weather or care as much as u guys. i mean, look at u! u have a full fledged weather blog with faithful participants, a GREAT weather page that has the forecast for the day and the next 7, a number of links to radars, forecasts and such, and even a video of the most recent forecast on the news. i mean, come on, u guys WAAAAY outbeat the competition in my eyes, there wasnt even a contest. u win hands down. now almost time for weather!! cant wait 2 watch u @ 10 on CW 23, MB!!! please give us some REALLY good news!!! :)
Just turning on CW 23... channel 16 to tune in for MB and the weather... lets see what we're in for!
The WIVB ratings will be high this week. Weather will be a main story, if not the #1 story... and thats why!
Tomorrow weather will be the #1 story on the news, and it prob will be again on Tue, maybe Wed, maybe Thur too if Fri's weather looks bad enough...
Haha MB, your little intro on the 10pm news at 10:10pm was funny... u were prob a little suprised. Live TV for you!
NWS Statement from web site:
IT NOW LOOKS LIKE SNOW AND SLEET WILL BE THE DOMINANT TYPES WITH SOME RAIN
MIXING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THE
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE NAM HAVE BEEN DISCOUNTED IN FAVOR OF
THE GFS...WHICH GIVES 3 TO 6 INCHES EVERY 12 HOURS FROM TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT,
AND POSSIBLY ENOUGH SNOW FOR WARNINGS IF THE 850 MB JET PUMPS ENOUGH
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE WRAP AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT.
4-10 inches of snow! OMG honestly didnt see that coming!!!!!!
Did I hear 4-10 inches of snow... umm yea, thats a winter storm warning in my book!
Wow! I thought this would have been downgrated for some reason... boy was I wrong! 4-10" is a whole lot of snow for the END of February!!
Ughhh Im sick of driving in this stuff... oh well!
And Mr. Don Paul said, "Tuesday's storm is not worth its own thread" wow how things change... no offence what-so-ever Don, just making light of the moment : )
WHOO MB!!! 10+ INCHES FOR NIAGARA AND ORLEANS COUNTIES!!!
DEFINITELY MORE THAN I EXPECTED!!
still hoping, though, that we remain all snow, then that would mean HUGE storm totals!!
still staying hopeful, this could easily put us under a winter storm warning. well, going to bed soon, and i better wake up to see us under a winter storm watch!!!
As Lindsay and MB have pointed out, we must remember that this system is still developing (isn't it out by the Rockies tonight), and a slight change of 50 or 100 miles in the storm track could throw the whole forecast up in the air. Remember all the mixing and westward/northern tracks systems seemed to have taken this year.
Hoping for snow-Matt from OP
Debbie downer waaa waaaaaaa! lol (SNL clip) in response to matt
I know, I know... I guess I'm going with the "if I set my standards low, I can't be disappointed.."
-Matt from OP
no offense, but im not one to be a pessimist, and i dont like negative ppl. look on the bright side, if u live further north, there will be lake enhancement and less of a mix so that means bigger storm totals. if u live further south...well, u guys will have to wait until late tuesday to start to pick up some REAL accumulating snow. all in all, this storm looks to have a pretty widespread impact on the entire area, more so to the north as of right now!!
-hoping for snow but confident that we are going to get a lot of it :)
Ohhh please let this actually come true! I reallllly hope I dont wake up Tue morning with it raining here in Amherst... and I hope its not raining when I go to bed Tue night for that matter too!
W.E.B.W., you will some day be a Meteorologist... I can just tell!
Stupid groundhog!
hey anonymous thanks so much for that vote of confidence
i rly am going to pursue meteorology in college (yes, i'm still in high school). its the one thing im passionate about and ive been such a weather fan for YEARS. so u may see me on the tv set one day (i mean, someone from channel 4 has to retire soon) :) :)
Should I be a bit nervious if when I watched the WIVB 6pm news weather cast MB was calling for 2-8 inches, but mainly the lesser amounts. And now its 4-10! Im happy, I like it... now when I wake up tomorrow morning, I hope it goes up again... maybe 8-12 would work?! haha. See what you can do lol!
yeah i wuz kinda thinking the same thing
thats a pretty dramatic increase in a matter of, oh, 4 hours!! :)
lets hope we wake up 2morro morning and find out we are under a watch and could get over a foot of snow! wouldnt that b great? and its not that far fetched either! :)
W.E.B.W. what are you going to do once you get your 10+ inches of snow. Stay inside all day? Same thing you could of done if it didn't snow. Its pointless unless you do something in it. Which I doubt you do because your posting here all night....
haha WEBW im in the same boat as you, but im in college now studying it lol! hard work! you really have to want it, thats all I can say. You and I both will be fighting for that WIVB spot lol!
What high school are you at, and what college do you like so far for meteorology?
hey i think some1 needs 2 delete that comment. pretty nasty if u ask me. well theres a lot u can do in snow, ski, sled, snowboard - idc if i do nething in it i just like snow ok? lay off!!
i think we all agree that comments like this are unwelcome here. some of u need 2 grow up, really. and im goin 2 bed soon so dont think my life is the blog cuz its not ok? geez some ppl
hey hey hey! Snow is snow! its not what you do with the snow, its what the snow does to us... meaning, school closures, just the overall storm atmosphere...
here we go with all the different anonymous'
well im goin 2 niagara wheatfield and i am either thinking about oswego or brockport. but im only a junior so i only have time. now, anon who is going to be fighting over channel 4 spot, can u help me out with this stupid poster who thinks im getting excited over nothing? he doesnt deserve to be on here, thats what i say
thank u anon, i think thats what i rly like about snow most :)
I agree some ppl dont think before they post, and they should!
Do you anonymous honestly think all of us on this blog want it to snow so we can run outside as if we've never seen snow before?!
Like said before, its not what we do with/ in the snow... its what the snow does to us and the community thats exciting... dont make me go more in depth... lol
I agree some ppl dont think before they post, and they should!
Do you anonymous honestly think all of us on this blog want it to snow so we can run outside as if we've never seen snow before?!
Like said before, its not what we do with/ in the snow... its what the snow does to us and the community thats exciting... dont make me go more in depth... lol
Rick: I upped the totals significantly for a couple of reasons. First of all, at 6pm I said "2"-4", not 2"-8"! I increased the totals because there are stronger signs now that we may be in the "deformation zone" for a period (that's an area where winds converge in the atmosphere along one axis and diverge on the other one) These zones can produce heavy precipitation. There may be a "frontogenisis maxima" nearby as well in the wraparound moisture Tuesday night. This is where the temperature gradient gets more compact in an area where a front is developing. Also, the latest 0Z NAM is calling for high qpf totals Tuesday night which is another indicator. I know 4"-10" is a broadbrush total, but I mentioned the higher end of that total would be closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline with the lower amounts general elsewhere. Again, this storm is still evolving and the path may change, but that's what I see right now.
haha WEBW Ive been backin' u up... dont worry about it... I learn u just got to brush that stuff off... and btw, both of those schools are great met schools! Im off to S. Oswego next semister... Im in the communication and media arts aspect of "the TV weather job" now... its hard stuff, but theres nothing I'd rather do more!... as you sound the same way!
Im pretty sure MB went to Brockport, so did Andy P from WGRZ. Aaron M went to Oswego I think... so their really good schools for ppl who are studying to be meteorologists.
The Niagara Wheatfield area no doubt will get the brunt of the snow with this one! : )
Ok Bloggers: I "fine-tuned" my totals to "3-6" general snowfall and "5-10" near the Lake Ontario shoreline Tuesday night into Wednesday. A change in path of this storm will change the projected storm totals. Don and Mike will have WeatherWatch updates tomorrow!
Thanks MB, your the best ; )
Have a good night!
MB was busy tonight... =]
Thank you for all updates..
0mg winter storm whach for all of wny.yayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy.god i hope Hamburg gets a lot.Adam from Hamburg
so this is going to be mainly a mesoscale event again with the frontogenisis maxima and the deformation zone...
Mesoscale dynamics again... its tricky and theres really no way of knowing exactly what this storm will bring us until a few hours before hand. These are one of those systems that can either flop or explode...
we shall see....
This weather can't make-up its mind. We could have the storm hold off till the afternoon of Tuesday the 26th but it's looking like it ain't. The only thing we hope is that it don't get to slippery out there with morning traffic.
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