Quiet Weekend; Next System Potential
You may recall the first part of our up-and-down winter in which it seemed we had a storm system every weekend; not so this weekend. Saturday will be very tranquil, with difficult-to-time slow clearing. Sunday will be Bright & Sunny, but with a more noticeable wind chill. All in all, an easy wx weekend. The next storm system will bring us some snow or a wintry mix by sometime Monday evening. This mixture may turn to all rain for a time on Tuesday, before turning back to snow by late Tuesday or Tuesday night--based on its GFS projected path. The snow will diminish to snow showers before Wednesday, and there will be a cold wind to take our temps back down into the 20s for Wed-Thur.
One possible fly in this ointment on Friday evening is that both the European and Canadian GEM models take this system on a more southerly path, which would be a colder solution likely to result in more snow and less mixed precip. If the path were far enough south, of course, there wouldn't be much of anything. We can't view European precip output (unless you pay a subscription fee to the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting--the Europeans don't put much of their model data out there without a fee to support their forecast ctrs). But the Canadian GEM would seem to offer more snow.
At this point, I'm going to stick with my original projection of possible brief snow, then a mix, then possible rain for a few hours, then a change back to snow--diminishing to snow showers. No signs of any whoppers or raging windstorms with this somewhat vigorous system. Lindsay and Mary Beth will have the latest over the weekend.
One possible fly in this ointment on Friday evening is that both the European and Canadian GEM models take this system on a more southerly path, which would be a colder solution likely to result in more snow and less mixed precip. If the path were far enough south, of course, there wouldn't be much of anything. We can't view European precip output (unless you pay a subscription fee to the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting--the Europeans don't put much of their model data out there without a fee to support their forecast ctrs). But the Canadian GEM would seem to offer more snow.
At this point, I'm going to stick with my original projection of possible brief snow, then a mix, then possible rain for a few hours, then a change back to snow--diminishing to snow showers. No signs of any whoppers or raging windstorms with this somewhat vigorous system. Lindsay and Mary Beth will have the latest over the weekend.
posted by Don Paul at
9:46 PM
50 Comments:
You Know I Would Have Hyped It If Next Week Storm Is Vigorous But Guess What It Is Not!!!!!!!!!
My Thoughts On Tuesday Storm
0 percent chance of heavy snow
0 percent of moderate snow
0 percent of light snow
100 percent Pure Liquid!!!!!!!!!!!
This Winter IS So Boring That U Dont Feel IT
I'm so tired I dunno why..
I feel like I been working like a dog.
It's funny cus I haven't done
anything the whole day,
but sit lazily on this chair.
Its the weather, there's so much pressure
Its draggin me around
I really hate it.
Feabuary and March are the worst months of the year
transition months
I wish i could sleep those two months,
you know, writing a notice that goes like,
'wake me up when April comes' and
sleep all the way through May.
The same goes for April, but change the October to May.
The internet connection is awfully lazy today.
Maybe it is the weather again.
It's not worth downloading anything during the day
Funny how the weather is ruining everything.
I feel like doing something else
besides sitting on the computer
and writing this.
The weather is again to blame
ayuud-go run around the block!
There 0 percent chance this will be Pure Liquid, Ayuud, if that makes you feel any better.
Why You Keep Changing Your Mind Don...
Didnt You This Will Be A Rain Event
Nope. I said there would probably be some rain. I haven't changed my forecast in any significant way for this system in several days, if you go back to the previous thread.
Haha ayuud is so funny! He just puts it all out there. From seeing the changes made in the long range forecasts for the NWS, the other two local stations, the weather channel etc... it seems as though the expected high temp for Tue is being lowered a little bit every day. In general, yesterday the high temp for tue was 38 degrees with a mix. Today in general, the expected high temp for tue is 35 with rain and snow. I think we'll be right on that line of rain/ snow before it changes over to all snow tue night. Does it look as though we could see any snow accumulation out of this system at all? Im not asking for amounts yet... Im not stupid.
-Matt
The latest GFS and NAM models move the storm from Cleveland through northern PA, which would imply more of a frozen precip event with little if any rain. Taken literally, this would be a 6 in. plus storm for the Niagara Frontier. I can't recall many storms taking this kind of track though....they seem to normally pass to our NW up the St. Lawerence Valley (especially this year), or push further to the south and redevelop off the coast. Will be interesting to watch how all the models trend over the next 24 hours.
This is the time of the year where enough is enough with the winter weather. I, along with many other people can't wait til the warmer weather gets here with the season of spring coming soon. I don't dislike winter, I've just had enough of it. If we're going to have more winter storms, like the one expected for Tuesday, it better be good.
the GFS today shows a fairly strong low pressure system (992 mB)moving over northern pennsylvania on tuesday, then strengthening further as it lifts off toward the northeast. this would put the niagara frontier at seeing the best chance for the most snow, and putting all of wny with a chance for some snow when colder air and moisture wrap around the system. still not sure how it will pan out, but it looks a little too close to us to say that it will all be snow as of yet. will have to look at other models, but im pretty sure i can say that this storm is going to have a pretty big effect on our weather come monday night through the day wednesday. so heads up!
I posted at 11:52 yesterday (my post is up above a bit) The expected high on Tue that they were saying yesterday was 35 (above freezing)... now as of today, the expected high for Tue is 32 (the freezing mark) This storm could end up being snow and freezing rain... Im not so sure of a switch over to all plain rain anymore like they were calling for yesterday!
-Matt
Just to let everyone know... the NWS as of yesterday was calling for a mix and rain/snow. That has changed. Now its all just snow, with the day-time temp only getting up to *28* on Tue! This could end up being a good sized snow event for the Niagara Frontier!
Both channel 2 and 7 took the "mix" out of the forecast on Tuesday and has just plain snow now. Channel 2 says this could dump a lot of snow on WNY since a mix looks unlikely now.
nice job, guys, cuz i JUST got off the NOAA website and saw that areas to the north are going to stay in the upper 20s and it looks as if there will be all snow for us, so long as the track of the storm stays south enough. they have now even mentioned it in their hazardous outlook:
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SOUTH OF NEW YORK STATE MAY BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
whoo!! sounds promising! but then again, im not going to get too too excited yet. theres still a lot of time between monday night and now so we will have to see just how strong this storm gets and where it will be heading. however, the trend is for it to be moving a little more to the south, which is good news for us!!
and ayuud, whats the deal? got some winter blues? its ok, we're here to help u out. and besides, next week's storm looks a little (actually a LOT) more promising than u play it out to be. here is what i think:
30 percent chance heavy snow
50 percent chance moderate snow
20 percent light snow
0 PERCENT PURE LIQUID!!!!!!!!!
I think Ayuud needs to seek some winter blues counseling.
I'd have to agree with the one anonymous poster about the warmer weather...don't get me wrong I love a good snow event but it is this "in between" stuff I hate.
Tuesday's storm looks more promising as each day goes by! Snow from Buffalo north... mix from Hamburg south (could even change to all rain for a while south of the city.)
If it stays mainly snow for the Niagara Frontier, you have to think we'll a least get 6+ inches out of this storm if you've seen the models.
Right now, I don't see this as being a heavy snow event coming our way. Two reasons: 1. The strongest dynamics are located south of our entire viewing area, and that's where I'd expected the highest moisture content. 2. Temps may be close to freezing, which would imply a wintry mix for some, and a water-laden snow for others which just doesn't add up too fast! Still, travel may turn tricky across these parts. Certainly an interesting setup with a wind component as well.... I'll have more tonight at 6, 10 and 11...
p.s. If you entered the "Deal With it" Contest, we're also drawing 10 names tonight and tomorrow on the 11pm show. If you haven't already entered, go to WIVB.com, click on "contests" and enter your e-mail. Remember, you have to watch to win! Good luck! They're quality long-sleeved mock turtlenecks!
aw but mary beth!! im only 17!!!
ah well, theres always next year...
W.E.B.W.: Well, then just be creative! Ask your folks to enter, and if, say your dad wins, then you can share it with your Pop! It's a win-win!
gracias mb of course i didnt think about that at the time :) i would definitely wear that lol
still hopin 4 something significant monday-tuesday (wed?)
MB-
is 6 inches of snow for a place such as Amherst too much to expect out of this storm on Tue? Your thoughts...
"Certainly an interesting setup with a wind component as well.... I'll have more tonight at 6, 10 and 11..."
oh no....another wind event? More shingles coming off the roof.
Not that kind of a wind event! Wow ppl assume the worst 24/7!
Btw... prob only 3 inches of snow at the most.
Hey Anonymous. I have had a lot of damage from wind this year so lighten up some. Yes, I assume the worst when I hear about possible high winds or whatever pertaining to wind. I live in a wide open rural area and the winds are even stronger here than other more protected places. Have had roof damage, tv antenna damage, chimney damage, etc. Can you blame me?
"Self destruct sunshine" today...the earlier clearing provided just enough heating and lift for moisture near the surface to rise a little and condense into stratocumulus. Unfortunately, that's very common near the Great Lakes.
P.S.
That should have been "Quiet" Weekend on my original thread--a little sleep deprived last night.
Did your cows and chickens blow away too lol jkjk! Im sorry, just a little anxious today. So many ppl seem to make more of what is actually supposed to happen. That comment was not directed right at you. General statement.
I've had very many bad driving experiences in the winters. Now I'm getting nervous about Mon-Tues. Also,Don, MB,what about the possible clipper on Friday?
Anonymous, No harm, no fowl (intentional misspell). May I suggest some farm fresh eggs to relieve your anxiety? Perhaps a nice omelet? JK,JK >wink<
Let's remember, we should all play nice on this blog.
Eeed: Friday's clipper looks to be a "no-biggie"..
Anyone who comments on this blog is now an enemy of the republic.
The Emperor
emperor- yea right! More like "little kid who thinks he's cool posting stupid stuff on this blog!"
MB-
is 4 or 6 inches of snow for a place such as Amherst too much to expect out of this storm on Tue? Your thoughts...
Anon: Not enough data available to pinpoint totals yet. Storm is still evolving and may alter path. Models are currently offering differing solutions to exact placement of the core of the storm.
MB,
details... what are the different models saying and how will we be affected differently based on different models? are there any trends?
thanks
3 weeks of winter left....
This post has been removed by the author.
Chris: First of all, ALL models show that the midwest storm system will take a gradual turn to the northeast and head up this way on Tuesday. One model is slower than its counterparts, delaying the onset, which could result in lower precip totals overall. Another model brings the system in faster and farther north, which would lead to more of a wintry mix and a water laden snow. Other guidance suggests a stronger, deeper southerly path, which would confine heavy precip totals well south, outside of our viewership boundaries, but with WNY staying with all snow, albeit on the lighter side. Again, Chris, as I mentioned, this is a storm that is still in the evolutionary stage. I will have a better handle on precip type and projected totals as the necessary guidance & data becomes available tomorrow. Great question!
The weather this weekend so far is beauitful & to be accepted because we didn't have to go out in it this weekend.
Don are we still in 3rd place with the snowfall with Syracuse at the most & Rochester in the middle? Hope we stay that way, so I can clot to my family that still lives in Syracuse & always asks me why I moved to Buffalo.
Hey guys.MB will we might see a early acumulations estimate tonight or this evening????THANKS-Adam from Hamburg
Sunday Afternoon Update: The 12z model guidance is bringing the storm center slightly more to the south than previous model runs. This means the precip may stay all snow for a longer period on Tuesday. I am sticking to my original forecast that there will be a period wintry mix across the S. Tier and NPA during the day on Tuesday and I still think it may make it briefly up to the metro during the afternoon, but this will quickly turn over to snow by nightfall. It appears the the heaviest of the snow will fall Tuesday night into early Wednesday as the deformation band works through WNY.
hey guys!! wow talk about a beautiful day - i cant even see a cloud! please enjoy this great weather before it gets REALLY, REALLY bad!! why do i say this? well, check out what the NOAA hazardous weather outlook has for all of western new york:
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA WILL BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW AND SLEET MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...THEN MORE SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. IF ENOUGH WARM AIR SURGES AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...THE MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO RAIN FOR A PERIOD
ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW ARE LIKELY IN COLDER AREAS TUESDAY...THEN THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...
WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS ON WEDNESDAY. TRAVEL WILL BE SLIPPERY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PATH OF THE LOW IS UNCERTAIN...AND
SNOW AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE COULD CHANGE IF THE LOW TRACKS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WATCHES AND WARNINGS AS THE LOW APPROACHES.
WOW!!! that definitely sounds a lot more hyped up than ive heard!! esp since i live in niagara county, we are likely to get ALL SNOW (that is if the track of the low remains where it does right now). but wow, do u think this bears a winter storm watch lindsay? i mean, several inches tuesday, then over 6 inches tuesday night, then "additional amounts" wednesday!! sounds like at least a foot of snow to me, and u no thats not just coming from me, either!! now im getting REALLY excited, this storm sounds a little bit worse than before. at least the far northern counties like niagara and orleans should expect mostly all snow with this system!! whoo good times in the weather field!! im just gonna check out the GFS model and a few others to confirm (or disprove) my excitement, but i am definitely thinking this could be a MAJOR snowstorm. am i going over my head, channel 4 weather team, or is this a possible reality? could we be under a winter storm watch as early as tonight? please let me know, because the time is getting closer!!! all u weather fans out there, keep a close eye out, this could be a pretty big one! :)
WEBW: I think there is a good chance a Winter Storm Watch will be issued. Also, I would say Niagara & Orleans counties will see the most accumulation since its looking like precip will stay snow for the longest period up in that direction.
I just want to make a DISCLAIMER about this storm's track. The 12Z models have brought this system slightly more south. If the future model runs remain consistent, precip will remain snow for a longer period. However, a shift in 50-100 miles in the center of low pressure will make a BIG difference in precip type and snowfall accumulations. So we'll continue to keep you posted.
and let me add that channels 2 and 7 weather pages are SO LAME its not even funny (...actually it kinda is). really sad, theyre so vague, its like they dont even care. thanks, channel 4, 4 bein the best weather station we have. if we didnt have u, i would most CERTAINLY be very upset, as would thousands across wny. i only like watching u guys cuz ur dependable and u know what ur talkin about. so keep it up! u guys r awesome!
thanks 4 commenting, lindsay, will DEFINITELY keep my eyes and ears open. and i have checked some other models and they do not show to the extent that outlook says, so i understand it is only 1 model, and it may not be right. still a possibility, though, and im glad were probably gettin the most snow further north, so ill keep my fingers crossed!! :)
Everything is proceeding as I have foreseen.
Been looking at the data since just after 1pm here at the station, and it appears as though we will have a variety of winter type precipitation on Tuesday, with snow, freezing rain, sleet and perhaps even plain rain. Once the cold air rushes in Tuesday night, it will change to all snow followed by some gusty winds. I will have the full update tonight at 6 and 11 on News 4 and at 10pm on CW 23... BTW, We will also be drawing 10 more names for the "Deal With It" shirts. If you haven't already entered, go to WIVB.com, click on "Contests", enter your e-mail...you could be the lucky winner!
Afino: Yes, I will have an update on potential totals tonight.
How come you cant post your snow accumulations now on the blog? Ohh I see... we have to watch the news to get it. Got ya! Got to get your plug in lol! :)
So would you agree that Amherst would be one of those places hat would end up with more snow? Niagara and Orleans are supposed to get the most... Do you think a winter storm watch will be issued for all of WNY? Or just N. Erie, Niag, Orle, and Gen? How bad, or not bad to expect this storm to be, comparing it to past storms we've had this winter? THANKS MB :]
18z New Experimental NAM is nearly all snow for BUF metro and is significantly colder and wetter than 18z NAM. In fact, 18z NAM paints picture of mostly mix for BUF metro. Should be interesting to see which wins out. HPC winter progs going mdt risk for 4 in and low risk for 8 in.
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