Weekend System Looking More Vigorous....
again. Thursday model runs have injected some more wind and cold into the weekend fcast--not quite as cold as Monday's runs, but cold enough.
Some wet, slushy snow is likely by Saturday AM. Strengthening SW winds will bring in the colder air during the afternoon and evening. Snow Shwrs will become more powdery, and some limited lake snow may begin to set up near the metro area, before shifting to Ski Co as winds veer to WNWly later overnight into Sunday.
More details on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.
Some wet, slushy snow is likely by Saturday AM. Strengthening SW winds will bring in the colder air during the afternoon and evening. Snow Shwrs will become more powdery, and some limited lake snow may begin to set up near the metro area, before shifting to Ski Co as winds veer to WNWly later overnight into Sunday.
More details on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.
posted by Don Paul at
3:06 PM
54 Comments:
What are your preliminary snowfall amounts for WNY(N. towns)? Is this an event like Wed evening, or is this more of a snow event?
Don,
Are we talking modest snow accumulations, or more than that for the Niagara Frontier? If its still too early for you to tell, give it your best guess.
Good, Ski country needs the snow
The sun came out... but only for a few min! haha, so happy to see the sun after this weather we've been having!
Don...should I tell my kid to stay at school in Geneseo this weekend? She was planning on driving home Friday and heading back Saturday. That drive sucks when the weather is good...thanks for letting us know!
Hey Don,
How much snow do you think the north towns will get right now before the lake snow shifts to ski country?
p.s. I know its still rather early to be asking that
-Devin
No numbers yet. A few inches seem possible Saturday night/very early Sunday near the metro area, before veering winds take the lake snow well south.
The Geneseo drive wouldn't be especially bad in that time frame--a few slushy spots--but it could get hairier by late Saturday/Sat nite as temps drop off more quickly.
And, yes, Devin--it is too early to be asking that. We'll see if the evening model runs bring a little more consistency.
The 120 hr system looks interesting on the GFS.
Don,
Environment Canada had strong winds and snowsqualls in our forecast for Sunday earlier in the week, then dropped the LES, but it is back in play in tonight's long range along with strong winds.
Some snow or not, around here there is alot of it to blow around if we get the gusts this weekend.
barrie1,
You're certainly going to get some gusts and some LES should develop as well.
Don...how cold is cold?...what are potential wind chill values, let's say Sunday into Sunday night?...any ideas?..thanks
Nothing that extreme, storm watcher, but plenty cold. WC: -5 to +5, perhaps. Sunday temps in low 20s, although the GFS is much colder than the NAM. If the GFS were to be preferred, I'd be talking teens instead.
Lake effect potential for Niag Frontier looks very limited. Temps at 850mb will not be especially cold during the time the boundary lyr winds are from the SW (240/250), but there should be a little synoptic burst developing Saturday night which could provide a few inches before the winds veer W, then NW, putting the heavier lake snow in Ski Co. Should winds veer completely to NW, multiple weaker bands would set up, instead of a single, well organized band over Ski Co.
The 120 hr GFS reference posted earlier is interesting, but low confidence. The European has a completely different and essentially dry solution for the same time period. As it is, I had to do a major change in my iffy Tue-Wed outlook based on changes in the 18z GFS vs the 12z GFS. The Climate Prediction Center sees this as a low confidence period, and I agree. Models are in disarray after Monday.
So its safe to say we dont realy know how bad, or not bad the weather will be until it gets here. So not a big weather event? ...comparing it to the event last night, and the icy friday mornig commute last friday.
No, it's not safe to say that Adam. I said I didn't want to put exact numbers on the snow, but I've already addressed the issues on this thread tonight.
00z run of NAM shows fairly strong winds by Sunday AM; potential for sustained winds of 25-35 w/some gusts to 40+, which will produce Blowing Snow. NAM has a burst of synoptic snow developing Sunday predawn. By that time, temps at 850mb should be cold enough for better organized LES, but winds will be veering from SW to W, sending the LES south.
So, right now it doesn't look like another windstorm, but it does look windy enough to produce hazardous travel where it's snowing, especially on N-S roads.
Any big weather events in the offing? Hows the extended forecast looking? Colder or warmer? Stormy or not so stormy?
Rick,
I already said Tuesday is strictly low confidence. For now, Sunday will have to do.
However, overall precip should continue above normal for much of the month and there a few signs in the GFS of more cooling around the 17th-19th; way out there, obviously.
Thanks for posting these more detailed forecast updates on the blog. However, being among a minority who has actually moved INTO WNY recently, I had always thought it would be useful to have a "primer" map on your website which delineated the various regions referenced by local meteorologists. For instance: Southtowns vs. Far Southtowns vs. Southern Hills vs. Ski Country vs. Southern Tier. Are there agreed-upon "boundaries"? As a newcomer, it seems to me that sometimes these terms overlap and/or are used relatively loosely/vaguely. Maybe this is a good candidate for a Lindsay Link, since she's also new to the area?
Very good and perceptive questions and analysis of geographical terms we use, anonymous.
Yes, I'll confess there is some occasional overlap. When I first moved here, computer models had coarse resolution, and it was much more difficult to narrowcast expected locations of lake snow bands, etc. Vague terms like "south of the City" were still being used frequently, often out of necessity.
As computer guidance and boundary layer wind forecasts became more refined, we attempted to refine and narrow down areas expected to be affected by small scale events. Sometimes this narrowcasting has raised expectations unrealistically (you can see that in some of the blogs here), but we are to blame for some of that. I was the one who coined the local phrase "Ski Country" years back, attempting to differentiate the more densely populated southtowns from the more rural sections of srn Erie Co, as well as northern Chau, Catt & srn Wyom Cos (no skiiing in the latter, I know). This sometimes raises questions such as "does he mean KB or Ellicottville?" Still, Ski Co is a definite improvement for quick verbal reference to rural vs suburban. Srn Tier, as I see it, refers to the 3 wrn s tier counties. We use Buffalo Stowns for the suburbs south of the City, usually going as far south as Orchard Park & E Aurora by definition. Some communities near the L Erie shoreline south of that latitude (Angola, i.e.) I can only refer to as the "more distant Stowns" and sometimes we can narrow down the portion of srn Erie County by mentioning the Boston Hills. The NWS zone for Erie County divide the county in half, nrn & srn. By necessity, then, warnings and advisories for srn Erie Co automatically include Orchard Park even if the forecaster really means south of Orchard Park. There is automatic formatting in special NWS statements and zones, and that's a tough nut to crack.
For broadcasters, we don't have the time to air county zone forecasts, so we have to rely on this potpourri of geographic descriptors to bring clarity, and we don't always succeed.
I do take pride that WeatherWatch 4 offers a far more precise and detailed forecast on a daily basis than our competitors for both location & intensity, especially on weekdays. Sometimes, we'd be better off with the old vague terms. But, like my colleagues at the NWS, we recognize improvements in the science allow us to strive for more precision, and that's the standard we will always attempt to meet.
A long-winded reply, but I thought your question deserved a good answer.
Still looks like a strong arctic cold front arriving before dawn Sunday, accompanied by a quick synoptic burst of snow (few inches possible), and followed by strong winds (25-35 G 45). Lake snow will shift into Ski Co. for the most part. Blowing snow will be a bigger problem there during this arctic blast, but there may be enough snow even north of the lake snow to produce hazardous travel due to blowing snow.
Details on News 4 this evening.
How is Saturday's forecast looking? Any changes? What about next Tuesday?
Are the accumulations pretty big or is it going to be a modest storm for ski country. That would be for ski country standards. Any idea?
Radio 930 stated 3-6 inches south towns , 6-10 ski country.
Accuweather.com
for Hamburg states - 4-8 inches
Noaa.gov : States couple inches or less ( may not be updated)
( These are just what I heard or read, non official amounts)
Channel 2 & 7 weather is useless online..
Sounds like windy and cold , smal amounts of snow , except areas of Lake Effect..
I'm sticking with Team WIVB and waiting for there forecast...
What is the icing on Lae Erie look like.
Great description of the south towns Don...what about us here in the Great White North towns...especially Niagara County? Do you use anything special for us? Or is the weather not as exciting up here?
As of early this evening, I'm going for a burst of 2-4" of general snow in the Sunday predawn hours accompanying the arctic surge, with strong winds developing at that time. An add'l 1-2" on the Niag Frontier Sunday, with Blowing Snow a significant problem. Tentatively, I'll estimate 4-8" for Ski Country in Sunday Lk Snow--questions again about band organization and wind shear. Accumulations before dawn should be sufficient for Blowing Snow to cause lots of problems, especially on N-S roads Sunday. Sustained WSW/WNW 25-35 Gusts to 45-50.
So for the *Niagara Frontier* you say 2-4 inches of snow early Sunday morning, and another 1-2 inches of snow during the day.
So if you add that up, is it safe to say that we wont see any less than 3 inches of snow, and we could see up to 6 inches total in the Amherst area.
As of now, that's what the potential is rob, as you added it up. New model runs this evening could change that, of course, so I'll have an updated forecast at 11.
spencer--the geography to the north isn't as complicated to describe. Northtowns means nrn Erie County--Amherst, Clarence, Wmsville, Tonawanda & sometimes Grand Island. If I'm referring to Niag Co &/or Orleans & Gen Cos, I'll mention them by name in most cases.
I always get confused once you say areas near Boston Hills and Ski Country ,I live in Hamburg 2 minutes from Village , but 5 minutes from 219 , so I guess I'm border line Ski Country/ Southtowns in some cases others im just Southern Erie..Ect..
Looks like MIGHT be busy for Team Weekend Wivb..
No part of Hamburg by my definition is "borderline Ski Country." It's a Buffalo Southtown.
Today's ensemble output on the Arctic Oscillation show a near momentary blip downward/cold coinciding with this Sunday's arctic outbreak, and just a slight downward hitch in the NAO, but then return to a longer term warm phase AO and NAO--as has been the case most of this winter.
The vigorous la nina continues to do its work, preventing any longterm blocking over Greenland leading to a Negative/Cold Phase NAO or AO. So, for the umpteenth time, I have to say no signs of a fundamental, long-lasting cold pattern-just relative quick "shots."
Lowered Sunday predawn accum JUST a tad, based on lower numbers in late NAM run. Also, the coarse/lower resolution GFS is not demonstrative with this burst of snow--but that's partially due to the lack of detail in that global model. Boundary lyr winds look to be Advisory criteria. I'm forecasting sustained 30-40 w/gusts up to 50 beginning just before dawn Sunday. Bndry layer looks to be 260 most of the time Sunday in the NAM--should keep most of the LES in Ski Country, below the Buffalo Stowns, with lighter snow shwrs to the north. However, w/2-3" accum and winds of that magnitude, still have to expect whiteouts and near whiteouts on N-S roads Sunday, with the worst conditions in the LES. On Sunday, Niag Frontier could see an additional 1-2", with 4-8" possible in Ski Country. But remember, wind shear could reduce snow accum below that range.
260 is perfect for the boston hills, southern erie county. Wasn't that 22 inches in colden on a 260 flow?
On the other hand, Sunday's winds may produce enough shear to keep lake snow poorly organized. They'll subside Sunday night to more manageable speeds, with a 280-300 flow, which would send lake snow even further south.
marinecore, I just didn't want to leave that "22" hanging out there....
haha i understand. thats ok as long as the ski areas get lake snow, that seems like a good bet.
Oh my, this is something else! Flip flopping from above average temps to bitter cold is hard on man and beast. The Shepherds have begun lambing already and a deep plunge in temps with high winds is not such good news. Baaaaaaaaaaa!
Saturday AM Update: Light snow showers will persist across WNY this AM, but as the temp rises above freezing this afternoon some rain drops will mix in...especially for the lower elevations. These rain drops will also help hold back accumulations. 1-2 inches will fall across the higher hill tops of the S. Tier this afternoon and less than 1 in elsewhere. Tonight an arctic cold front pushes through WNY. Winds will pick up significantly tonight in addition to a few heavier bursts of snow overnight. An additional 2-5 in will fall overnight with the higher end of this range seen across the S. Tier and NPA. Tomorrow winds will continue and be sustained between 25-40 with gusts as high as 50. This will help contribute to a sub zero wind chill and blowing snow, which may produce near white out conditions. In addition, lake snow will set up for areas south of the metro (S. Erie, Chaut, Catt) where an additional 3-6 will fall. Less than 3 will be seen elsewhere tomorrow.
Lindsay dose this include the Buffalo southtowns?????Thanks:)-Adam from Hamburg
Yes, Adam. The Buffalo Southtowns are included in that range for tomorrow. Winds will be from the WNW.
Lindsay-
How much snow do you think a place such as Amherst will see in total? (meaning snowfall Sat. night plus snowfall Sun. in the day.) Thanks!
Lindsay, Do you think the snow we get in the north towns will be enough for the plows and shovels to come out?
It is raining and snowing in Amherst right now. The snowflakes are huge!
Well guys in the southtowns and points south this is what my weather bug is suggesting.1-2" inches tonight and 3-5" tomarrow with additional accum. tomarrow night. For every one else im sorry to say snow lovers nothing more then a few inches sorry.Channal 7 and 2 say the same thing.wben said 3-6" for the southtowns and 6-12 for points south.Accuweather said 1-3" tonight,3-6" tomarrow, and 3-6 tomarrow night and bringing Hamburgs snowfall total to 15".Same for springville but accuweather said 6-10" tomarrow instead of Hamburgs 3-6" bringing there totals to 20". Lindsay i know these totals sound redicuis but what do you have to say.????.-Adam from Hamburg
Ha! Afinegenov, dont ever listen to weatherbug, there all clueless. No way your getting 15 inches in hamburg. I say max 6 for the whole event, even that is pushing it. With the wind direction even ski country will get very limited amounts. Lake Erie is 32 deg. hard to get strong LES with it almost frozen, strong winds, dry air, and a bad wind direction. I believe no one will get over a foot from this storm, if they do ill be surprised.
Rich,
You tell him! lol! Weatherbug IS NO BETTER THAN my blind grandma forecasting the weather! Come on Hamburg will get snow, but prob 1/4th the amount of 15 inches. omg lol... 15 inches... ok yea, that might happen!
If you guys wanna know the extnet of the ice on lake erie, go to www.natice.noaa.gov they show an ice map of lake erie. For now there is by far more water than ice on our end of lake erie. However, the western end appears to be quite well frozen over, I don't think ice will prohibit snowfall for ski country, the lake will probably ice over pretty good later this week, but the lake effect potitental will still be around for a while.
haha, there should be an age limit for this blog... sorry afinogenovm! 15 inches! come on... why would you EVER believe weatherbug... have they EVER been right with snowfall amounts? I can answer that one for you... NOOO!
Hamburg is supposed to see 6 or 8 inches MAX! thats about half of 15"! WOW!
afinogenovm!
Your not a meteorologist, and please dont ever become a meteorologist! You need to think before you post! Don has told you that before!!
Wind ADVISORY for ALL of WNY from 4am until midnight sunday. Gusts up to 50mph expected, with what snow we do get blowing around.
Our next "weather event" to keep an eye on will come this Tuesday... it will mainly be a snow maker for all of WNY.
WOW -just looking out the window here in North Harmony and it's amazing what I saw. It was as though someone waved a wand and changed us back to winter. It was raining and then as I watched a wave of wet snow came in from the west and now in only a few minutes the landscape has turned all white with wet blowing snow. In all these years I have never seen such an abrupt transformation while I stared out the window. It's only been ten minutes and the road is all white. The winds are very strong. This could get hairy down here. I am 4 miles south of Chautauqua Institution. I can tell its going to be a bear of a night on the Southern Tier. Watch the driving on 86 people it will be slick.
Guys i ment that is what accuweather said and even look under hamburg on accuweather it says the total of 15".And i was not makeing a forcast i was getting this info of of other sites.DUHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.and i even said these totals sound rediculis and i know nobudy will probaly see anywere near that.-Adam from Hamburg
The squalls moved off down here and traffic seems to be moving along OK now. It certainly was an abrupt change right at the five o'clock hour from rain to snow though. It remains to be seen if we get serious snow down here this time. The pattern has been that you folks up North have taken the big hits this winter while we remain pretty mild. I am in Southern Chautauqua County.
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