Windy & Wintry Changes for Sunday
Wind Advisory goes into effect early Sunday morning thru Sunday night for the entire region with wind gusts up to 45 or 50mph. Lake Snow & Blowing Snow ADVISORY is posted for So. Erie, Chautauqua, Cattaraugus and Wyoming counties 10am Sunday-7am Monday for accumulating lake snow and poor visibility/white-out conditions. An arctic cold front will plow through WNY later tonight, ushering in sharply colder air, strong gusty winds and lake snow for some. A quick burst of light to moderate snow will develop by dawn Sunday with 1-3 inches of accumulation. Scattered mainly light general snow showers will continue on Sunday with an inch or two in spots, with more significant lake snow across the extreme southern half of Erie, Wyoming and Northern Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties with 3-6" of snow possible. Lake snow may stretch as far as the distant southtowns, such as Orchard Park and East Aurora, but it will be mainly confined to ski country and portions of the southern tier. Strong gusty winds will create poor visibility and whiteout conditions at times in these areas. Temps will drop through the teens and into the single digits Sunday night with sub-zero wind chills.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
5:00 PM
45 Comments:
According to the NWS discussion the winds are quite as impressive looking, could that mean the lake effect gets better organized, right now they are calling for 3 to 6 tomorrow and 2 to 4 tomorrow night. add it up and it comes to 5-10 for southern erie, chautauqua, and cattargus counties. Could it be somewhat higher?
Just to correct for some serious misinformation on the previous thread; The forecast on the WeatherBug is the NWS forecast for your zone. So, contrary to what a few of you posted, it's far from worthless, okay? The 15 inches you heard about came from another source; i.e., AccuWeather, not the WeatherBug.
Well in Hamburg its somewhat windy with higher gusts , 32.2 degrees , 40% humidity. Lightsnow ,the rain that fell earlier looks to be freezing up.
Looks like we may get a couple inches ( if the lake machine doesnt hit us the hard) , but very cold , good day to stay in bed and be warm , Wait have to work..Dohh
Any possible updates for us snow junkies... =]
Thx for the Updates today Mb and Lindsay.
Marinecore3008...I'll stick with those amounts for now. Not going with anything higher due to strong winds which may create shear and more multiple banding instead of a single heavy one.
And Don...3 posts inles than a minute...
Hamburgsnowman: Thanks for your report. You may get some general light snow, but most of the Lake Effect ought to be south of you tomorrow. Other opportunities are on the horizon though...another "snowy" system is slated for Tuesday.
Don it was me who started this.Iwant saying that the 15" were going to happend i just got that off of accuweather to prove how rediculious that site was.how bout your thoughts to.And also for people on the last thread.I SAID ACCUWEATHER SAID 15" NOT THE WEATHER BUG!!!!!!!!!!!!.and guys how much snow are we looking at for a earliy estamint for tuseday????is the snow going to be light modest or heavy or can you not tell yet.THANKS-Adm from Hamburg
1-3 possibly 2-4 for Tuesday..hardly worth mentioning.
At five O'clock when the rain abruptly turned to snow here my husband was traveling on 86 near Finlay Lake and saw pink lightning and the sky was all pink. My neighbor also saw the front come in at 5:00 and turn from rain to snow. We felt almost like a tornado was coming or something it felt so odd but is just splattered us with wet snow and left. Nothing else has happened much since. Funny weather this winter that is for sure.
MB-
After this event for tonight thru tomorrow, what is down the road? I hear Tuesday could be a snow maker... and i also here we're supposed to stay rather cold. Can you expand, or add anything to this? Thanks!!
Wow...how about afinogenovm? Does anyone think he made it past 2nd grade?
haha, I know! He got his fair share of "bashing" on the last thread.
The "dumbing" of America is working...he (or she) is proof!
Adam: This week looks to be more "winter-like" by WNY standards. There are no significant warm ups in the works. In fact, daytime highs thru next weekend will average in the teens or 20s. Another snow maker is set to push in on Tuesday with some measureable snowfall likely. Projected snowfall totals cannot be estimated for that time just yet. Also there's another cold front that is scheduled to cross through on Friday/Saturday when more snow may be expected.
31.8 degrees here in Hamburg , minor snow falling , calm winds that I could tell , almost seems to calm..
wicked burst of snow here in boston, still snowing quite hard. Lake effect seems disorganized.
Front has made it through Arcade/Yorkshire. Temps have dropped 8 degress within a few mins.. The most concerning news though are the brutal winds... As channel 4 called for it is extremely dangerous... Visiability is down to 10 ft to 0..
As a VOL Fireman if you DO NOT HAVE TO GO OUT TODAY STAY INSIDE..
THE ROADS WILL BE EXTREMELY DANGEOURS LATER TODAY south of the south towns rt 219, rt 16 south of Holland with the whiteouts are going to make this a very difficult day for driving at best...
If you must drive good luck,,
For about the last 1/2 hour we had blizzard like conditions in Scio. You couldn't see anything out the windows and the kids couldn't see more than a few feet in front of their faces outdoors. The wind and snow stopped as quickly as it started.
MB, last night on the 11pm news cast, you said that next weekend could be rather interesting. What did you mean by that? And, how is this Tuesday looking?
We got about an inch of snow here in Amherst, and it is now sunny outside.
Mary Beth, do you see any LES chances for the north towns this upcoming week?
Whats our next "weather event" to keep our eye on after this one is over?
Here in Jamestown we got about 4" in that initial "burst" of snow this AM. It came down harder than I have seen it in about 3 years. VERY cold right now, my weather station on the garage has us at 11 F, when I got up this AM it was 24 . Winds are very strong too, gusts with white outs. Stay home and keep warm!!
str
Lets try and keep this post to the current weather siutation and lets not worry about other storms until this one is over..
Very dangeorus driving conditions continue for extreme southern erie, sw wymoing co southward..
I have not seen much lake effect developing yet...
However it does look like there is some starting to develop in thee boston hills..
Only time will tell if or much much this band strengthens and migrates south..
Either way as i said a very difficult day of travel for all
Oh yes, we are having some weather out here in Stedman crossroads, just off 86. If you go outside the wind will take your breath away. Sorry I am not taking my 14 inch ruler out there today to stick in the snow. It's now 11F. That I can check without going out. LOL
Frigid, subzero wind chills will persist for the rest of the afternoon and tonight due to the arctic air combined with strong gusty winds. We will see occasional gusts close to 50mph through late tonight and early A.M. tomorrow. Air temps have already tumbled into the teens and will plunge even further in the single numbers tonight. Be sure not to leave your pets outside! On the snow situation, there's multiple banding going on, mainly across ski country and the southern tier. There, visibility has been sharply reduced to less than 1/4 of a mile. Travel can difficult especially on north/south roads. Also, some minor lake snow near the Lake Ontario shoreline and sometimes even a few light snow showers pop up here in the Metro area mixed in with sunshine. Heavy lake snow is quite limited due to strong gusts creating shear along with a portion, but not all, of Lake Erie being frozen. Be it known that LES is still alive and well going into mid February!
Strbuk: Be careful measuring snow during strong wind events. Drifts can offer misleading actual totals, but I'm sure you're not far off from reality. Thanks for your report!
Mark: Next weather event is Tuesday.
Soprano3695: I'm not sure how you have come up with those snowfall totals. Tuesday's system is still evolving and can change path, intensity, etc., so I find it perplexing how you can justify your claim.
Will: Lake Effect for Northtowns? In general, I don't see any huge events in the making over the next week. More importantly, you need specific wind criteria to tell which areas would be affected... that information is only available in the short term.
John: I'll have more on the extended outlook tonight at 6:30pm and 11pm on News 4 and at 10pm on CW23.
Actually Soprano is right on according to the NWS.
I predict March will warmer than normal due to global warming and George Bush.
OMG NWS calling for 4" of snow Tuesday... Just a few degrees of being a major ice storm.
If it is bad SCHOOLS could be closed.
Environment Canada also on the band wagon too. YEEEEEEEEEHAAAAAAAA
Wind Chill ADVISORY posted until 9am tomorrow. Late this afternoon, wind chills are already bitterly cold...minus teens reported across the region within the last hour with wind gusts up to near 45mph. Be sure to dress in layers, wear a hat and gloves if heading outdoors.
The weather channel is showing just light snow for western new york on Tuesday with the mixed precip in Pennsylvania. Takes a lot more than that to close schools in western new york. I believe our district in the southern tier has only used 1 or 2 days this winter. Also at our local weatherbug station at the high school the highest gust today has only been 27 MPH.
Trainman: The Weather Channel does not specialize in local forecasting. I'll have more on Tuesday's evolving scenario tonight at 10 on CW23 and after the Grammy's on News 4. Also, several of our weathernet sites recorded wind gusts up to 50mph today, and a good majority of them had wind gusts over 40mph. BTW, if you've never visited Steamtown near Scranton, PA, you may want to check it out. It's a trainman's paradise!
WGRZ is calling for a general 2-4 inches of snow on Tuesday... with higher amounts possible they say.
WKBW says a 3-6 inch snowfall is not out of the question.
The NWS says 6 inches as of late Sunday evening, but that amount could go up or down as Tuesday gets closer they say.
What do you think MB?
high potentiality that schools will be closed on Tuesday or Wed...
Snow should stick to cold surfaces..
Hi Mary Beth,
Thanks as always for this weather blog. I have several questions that may be you can address.
Do you know what to look for when it comes to frost bite?
Is this cold snap a pattern change that may persist for the foreseeable future { change in the jet due to NAO )
You'll probably think this is a dumb question---but have we made up the water table deficiencies from last summers drought ?
Thank you
Jack
It's now 2 degrees.. thats a 2 gaurantee...
MB--
You said 2-5 inches of snow for Tue on the 10pm news. Now is that amount on the higher side in your mind, or the lower... because you said that amount could change. Thanks:)
At this point, it appears likely that some schools may be closed tomorrow due to the harsh wind chill. As for schools being closed on this coming Tuesday (as some posters are thinking) it is much too early to tell. 2-5 inches of snow will not close school's.
The general "closing condition" wind chill temp for most school districts in WNY is -20 degrees below zero.
Andy: I'm calling for 2"-5" of snow for Tuesday, but I will not carve that in stone, since the path and intensity of this next system may alter a bit.
Jack: Signs of Frostbite are: a. Numbness. b. Redness or pain in the affected area. c. white or grayish-yellow skin d. skin that feels unusually firm or even waxy. It's best to prevent frostbite by wearing layered clothing, a hat and gloves to cover exposed skin.
This cold snap will be out of here by Tuesday when we bounce back into the 20s, although it will stay "wintry" by WNY standards for the rest of the week. Beyond that, there are signs of other warming trends down the road. Moreover, the latest ENSO discussion has La Nina hanging on tight through the rest of the winter season, which confirms the continuation of the mild spells we've been having thus far. Again, no significant warm ups scheduled this week.
As far as liquid precipitation is concerned, we are 1.53" above normal since January 1.
Jim: It's smack dab in the middle.
It is -2.5 degrees in Amherst right now! That's the coldest I've seen it get around these parts this winter thus far.
The Dent Tower in Amherst, along the thru-way that has the big time and temp display on top of it says the temp is -5 degrees! That's cold!
Air Temps in all locations in WNY will be dropping to near zero or below zero tonight. A good idea to allow faucets to drip overnight to prevent pipes from freezing...
Hey guys......how about starting a new thread to discuss tomorrow's situation?....thanks
hi guys, how about the pets left out in the cold....have not heard mention of this on the broadcasts! Afterall, we are their voices!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!11
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