Monday, February 25, 2008

Winter Storm Warning

As of early afternoon on Monday, certainty on storm's path (as per usual) leaves much to be desired. The European's last run still takes the storm far enough south for its heavier snow to be south of our viewing area, while the NAM brings the storm close enough for a possible mixture near PA/srn tier, and the GFS is just a bit more to the south with mainly snow. It does still appear that the Niag Frontier will still be all snow, with some chance for sleet or freezing rain to sneak into parts of the srn tier on Tuesday. Initial snow will be slushy, due to relatively "mild" temps, and this snow will transition to a more powdery (higher snow/water ratio) snow late Tue night into Wed AM. As MB said on Sunday, there may be some lake enhancement to the north by Tue nite into Wed. This enhancement could get as far south as far nrn Erie & Gen Cos, in addition to Niag & Orl Cos.

Current potential looks to be significant, but still not a true "whopper." The duration of the event, rather than hourly snowfall rates, is what's going to bring snowfall totals up. Actual snowfall rates will likely be light to moderate by tom'w midday, mainly moderate Tue night, and then gradually diminish to snow showers by mid/late AM on Wed. At that point, some blowing and drifing will develop due to gustier winds and falling temps. NAM timing brings somewhat windier and snowier conditions to the Niag Frontier during Tue afternoon and night.

159 Comments:

Blogger peter said...

Don,
I have to admit I am addicted to this blog. I truly believe that WIVB is by far the best at providing accurate weather coverage. Could you tell me what the long term temperature outlook is for the next few weeks. Are we going to start to get into the 30's and 40's more consistently?
Thanks in advance

February 25, 2008 3:03 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

It look more like a roller coaster pattern, rather than consistent 30s and 40s. For example, Wednesday we'll be dropping into the teens, with some snow & blowing snow.

Still, at this time of the year, sunshine received dictates more frequent forays into the 40s--just not this week!

February 25, 2008 3:10 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

Don are you still going with MB's forecasted totals of 5-10 inches she gave last night? Why or why not...

February 25, 2008 3:10 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

My updated totals will be on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6, after I've seen the 18z run.

I'm not certain 5-10" is the range she used--see previous thread.

February 25, 2008 3:11 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

So you wont give a hint of your totals? more or less...? NWS is saying flat out 6-12"... but Im sure the 12" will be most likely on the Niagara Frontier. Would you agree?

February 25, 2008 3:17 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

5-10" is the range she used on the 11pm news last night...

February 25, 2008 3:18 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

PA viewing area is now under a *winter storm warning!... however it says they are only supposed to get up to 8 inches of snow in total (NWS says that)

February 25, 2008 3:21 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

Do you happen to feel that school closings either on Tuesday or Wednesday are possible? In addition, will there be any significant winds associated with this particular storm?

February 25, 2008 3:24 PM  
Blogger Mary Beth Wrobel said...

Chris: My totals on the 11pm show last night were 3"-6" of a widespread snowfall and 5"-10" for Niagara, Orleans counties, due to potential lake enhancement. Don will have new totals on tonight's broadcasts: 5pm, 6pm, 10pm, 11pm. This storm continues to evolve...

February 25, 2008 3:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don paul said:

"My updated totals will be on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6, after I've seen the 18z run."


.....
So we probably will get alot of snow 6-12" total , some winds ( not high) , and pretty cold..


BTW:

Cheap, watch and find out plug.... =]\

February 25, 2008 3:24 PM  
Anonymous matt said...

Yea I just noticed that. Now if you look below Mckeen and Potter counties, every other county is under a winter weather advisory. So it would make sense that from Mckeen and potter counties up to Niagara and Orleans would be under a winter storm warning. I think its just a matter of time before WNY is put under the winter storm warning!

February 25, 2008 3:25 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

WINTER STORM WARNINGGGGGGG!!!!!

February 25, 2008 3:28 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

JUST ISSUED!

February 25, 2008 3:28 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NIAGARA FALLS...MEDINA...ROCHESTER
325 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 12 PM EST
WEDNESDAY. THIS UPGRADES THE THE WINTER STORM WATCH WHICH WAS
PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT.

February 25, 2008 3:31 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

*10-14* inches for Niagara Frontier!

February 25, 2008 3:32 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

From the NWS ^^^^^

February 25, 2008 3:33 PM  
Anonymous jim said...

10 to 14 inches of snow for anyone up to 20 miles south of Lake Ontario. 8-12 for everyone else!

Biggest snow storm for us this winter... if it does happen as they say!

How's Friday looking?... thats importiant too!

February 25, 2008 3:35 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

I just love watching these types of storms change and move closer to the area......Buffalo winters at their best!!!

February 25, 2008 3:36 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

This is our "big one" for the winter!

Talking about Niagara County, they have not seen that much in the way of snow at all this winter... here it comes!!

February 25, 2008 3:37 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

Well , I guess its time to change the heading of this thread! :-)

February 25, 2008 3:42 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Buffalo schools will most likely close Wed... if it gets bad enough. Lots of walkers there.

February 25, 2008 3:49 PM  
Anonymous adam said...

How can WGRZ not have any snow in their forecast for Friday? Has this storm gone away... no effect on WNY?

February 25, 2008 3:51 PM  
Blogger Mary Beth Wrobel said...

Winter Storm WATCH upgraded to a Winter Storm WARNING now for the entire viewing area 7am Tuesday thru 7am Wednesday. Travel will turn difficult across the region.

February 25, 2008 3:51 PM  
Anonymous rich said...

Im so happy! We finaly finaly finaly get our Buffalo snow storm! Man, its been long enough...

The last "big one" when you think about it was the snowfall of the Oct suprise storm over a year ago...

February 25, 2008 3:54 PM  
Anonymous mark said...

YAYYYY Mary Beth... We both love the snow... let alone a snow storm! : )

February 25, 2008 3:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

From the NWS...
36 HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 9 INCHES IN THE
BUFFALO METRO AREA...WHICH WILL PROBABLY HAVE THE LOWEST TOTALS IN
THIS EVENT...UP TO THE 12-14 INCH RANGE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE ONTARIO DUE TO LAKE ENHANCEMENT. ALSO HAVE 10-12 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHERN TIER...FINGER LAKES...AND EASTERN LAKES

9 inches over 36 hours or 1 inch per every four hours... does not sound like a "whopper" or storm that will close schools and halt traffic and commerce. Such amounts over such a long range does not seem unmanagable

February 25, 2008 3:55 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

MB... doesnt the winter storm warning go til 12pm Wed?

February 25, 2008 3:57 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

whoo a winter storm warning is FINALLY in effect from 7 am tuesday to 12 PM wednesday, and they say niagara and orleans counties are going to get the heaviest amounts with 10 to 14 inches!!! (lets hope 4 more...wow i guess im greedy). better not b a flop, im expecting this to be pretty major. could it be enough to close schools wednesday?

February 25, 2008 3:57 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hey WEBW... up your way it may be enough to close schools... it prob will close Niag Wheatfield... for your sake lol!

February 25, 2008 4:12 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

HECK YES!!! although if no1 knows, we hardly ever close...prob cuz our superintendent is from alaska :) anyway we are in that 10-20 mile range of lake ontario so at this time tomorrow we are going to be getting into the heavy stuff, both from the lake and from this storm system. im pretty pumped that we are getting the higher end of the snow totals...AGAIN!!...seems like that has been happening a lot this year. the storms have come close enough where we have received the heaviest precipitation but have stayed far eonugh north where most of the precipitation falls as snow. well if thats how the pattern wants to stay it can as long as it wants!!!

btw...a little sidenote...any more news about friday? although i no the focus is more on 2morro, mb said friday could be another day to watch, so any other news u would like to pass on 2 us, channel 4 team?

February 25, 2008 4:19 PM  
Anonymous Trainman said...

We have not had much of a winter. No big pile up of snow like most years. Still hardly any snow on the ground in Cattaraugus county. Been a lousy year if you owned a snowmobile. Trails have been dirt most of the time. This storm is just going to be a nuisance storm like the rest have been this winter and don't much impact on anything.

February 25, 2008 4:50 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

well if u didnt know this is not much of a nuisance...i dont consider a possible 12+ inches nothing to pass off, this is still going to be a pretty major winter storm. especially tomorrow night when snow rates are going to be at their highest, the rush home will be hard for older folks. dont b 2 down, trainman, u might b able to use ur snowmobile just yet.

February 25, 2008 4:52 PM  
OpenID afinogenovm said...

I CANT WAIT TILL 5 OCLOCK.GO HAMBURG FOR SNOW!!!!!-ADAM FROM HAMBURG

February 25, 2008 4:53 PM  
OpenID afinogenovm said...

wow what a downer Don 6-8 for erie.well i say 8-10 and ill prove you wrong lol.-Adam from Hamburg

February 25, 2008 5:24 PM  
Blogger Mary Beth Wrobel said...

Winter Storm WARNING now runs through NOON on Wednesday..time stamped changed.

February 25, 2008 5:25 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

Brief note: I went somewhat conservative on numbers because that's what the numbers support. In addition our Super Microcast and FutureWatch in-house models are very aggressive (probably too aggressive)on bringing sleet & frz rain into the mix during the afternoon tomorrow, when the 18z NAM shows heaviest snowfall rate to occur. If that mix were to verify, my numbers would be too high, not too low.

February 25, 2008 5:29 PM  
OpenID afinogenovm said...

Don if it stays all snow will we see more snow or the same???-Adam from Hamburg.

February 25, 2008 6:52 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

I don't think it would make a huge difference--maybe an inch or 2, Adam.

February 25, 2008 7:40 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Storm Watcher...

Hey Don...is the fact that the storm warning was extended to noon on Wednesday mean anything....will we see a longer duration of snow, and therefore potentially have higher accumulations?...or is the NWS just trying to play it safe and have a larger window?....also, it has been my observation so far this year that the Super Microcast has been dead on nearly all the time, especially the December storm that ended up having extensive mixing as the Microcast predicted...therefore, I'm expecting mixing to take place for several hours on Tuesday....I was interested to see that you thought that would only hold down accumulations by an inch or two....is that because the intensity of the precip will not be at its peak yet?....thanks....really fascinating to see how these things change, especially because as of Friday night, you didn't think this was going to be significant......thanks for the info.....

February 25, 2008 7:57 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

Channel 2 is calling for 6 to 12 inches; Don, depending on the area, is calling for 6 (Buffalo/East) to around 12 inches (North and South). I'm not quite sure how anyone could say that Channel 2's sounds more accurate. Thus, they sound extremely similar.

February 25, 2008 8:17 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

chris,

Then there's the question of who "they" are on this shift. There is no "they." I haven't heard that forecast, but it doesn't sound much different than that of the NWS or mine. I think the former silly poster was just trying to tweak a response from me.

February 25, 2008 8:24 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

agreed...

Are you and your team in a holding pattern waiting to see the next model runs? How often does your in house models run? Are you looking at conditions back west? Anything picking your curiosity? Noticing anything changing or all on track?

thanks, as always-chris

February 25, 2008 8:28 PM  
Anonymous chris said...

peaking nor picking... its been a long day

February 25, 2008 8:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Adding to Chris, what do you look for, between model runs, when a system like this approaches?

-Matt from OP

February 25, 2008 8:32 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

Storm Watcher,

I don't recall saying that a mix in the afternoon would only make an inch of difference. If I said that, I shouldn't have. It appears that the peak rate of precipitation will occur during that time period. That would mean if the last run of Super Microcast were on the money, such a mix would certainly have more than an inch's worth of effect in reduction of accumulation. We have a newer run coming in this evening which isn't quite so aggressive with the northward advance of a mix, but still is warmer tom'w afternoon aloft than most other models.

Of course, we update our forecasts at 10, and again at 11--so we hope to give you more up-to-date numbers than you might find elsewhere (I don't have the luxury of waiting for the "next shift" to handle things.)

February 25, 2008 8:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Storm Watcher,

Don....at 6:52 pm Adam asked if it switched to all snow would it make much of a difference or not, and you responded not much, maybe an inch or two, at 7:40...that's what I was referring to in my post....not calling you out, just letting you know what I was referring to...I can see where it can get a little confusing responding to all these people on the blog...

February 25, 2008 8:44 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

In answer to several questions: Super Microcast runs every 6 hours.

In the interim, I'll be looking a balloon soundings from early this evening for atmospheric profiles, as well as surface observations and, of course, radar and satellite--including cloud top temperatures.

Soundings can be found at a website run by NCAR-the Nat'l Center for Atmospheric Research at this website: www.ral.ucar.educ/weather/upper/

They are a critical tool in determining atmospheric stability, moist layers, dry layers, wind shear, likely dendritic snow growth region (that one is nicely dealt with in BUFKIT), & warm or cold advection, along with pressure surfaces.

So you know, their use requires specific education/training--which you can find on the web--so don't expect to just jump into them and know what you're looking at.

The shallowness of the arctic air to our west remains a point of concern for p-type tom'w afternoon.

February 25, 2008 8:56 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

Correction: In that link to soundings, it's edu/weather, not educ/weather

February 25, 2008 8:59 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

think anyone will have a snow day tomorrow or wednesday?

February 25, 2008 9:04 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

I found a better link for those among you who might want to learn a little more about soundings and atmospheric profile diagrams. The UNISYS website has some introductory material, and the actual upper air diagrams are at:
weather.unisys.com/upper_air/skew/index.html

Again, some of this stuff is pretty esoteric and complex. There may be a problem with the first link I gave you, since the dates on this morning's sounding read 26 Feb 2003--although the data doesn't look too far off. Soundings are generally updated on the web closer to 10am and 10pm.

February 25, 2008 9:15 PM  
Blogger GregN said...

Don - Since we're closing in on this event, I'm wondering if anything stands out with the current placement of the storm compared to different model runs. You've pointed out some differences in where the models place the storm and how that will affect our storm totals. Does any 1 model seem to be verifying better, or still too early to tell...?

February 25, 2008 9:16 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The NWS used to post great pictures of the frozen lake during winter when weather permits. They haven't done this in a couple of years now (or at least not on their winter weather page where it used to be.) Does anyone know why they stopped? or where I kind find these images? I know it was mentioned that it was 98% ice covered.

February 25, 2008 9:30 PM  
Blogger GregN said...

Anon - There was a fantastic visible sat image of the eastern Great Lakes posted yesterday on another weather forum (scroll down to post #212):

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php?showtopic=157550&st=200

Ice cover is clearly visible on Lake Erie

February 25, 2008 9:43 PM  
Anonymous we NEED snow!!! Ü said...

Can we please not talk so much about this one and just let it snow? I for one am tired of all the hype of a storm coming only to get RAIN of all things. C'mon, why can't we get a good clobbering? We could use it! But seriously, think of the "storms" we've gotten this season thus far... Yes, they weren't that bad...

February 25, 2008 10:32 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

Honestly, can we possibly end up seeing school closings tomorrow morning?

February 25, 2008 10:38 PM  
Blogger Cody said...

MESSAGE TO ANY AND ALL:
If you don't have anything productive or courteous to ask or say, please refrain from saying anything.

February 25, 2008 10:41 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

i totally agree cody. this blog should be a lot of fun (i mean look at me! i get excited over nothing!) but immature comments arent rly nice and they can hurt the person even if u dont know it. idk y u r complaining, we have done fairly well with winter storms even tho they havent all been in the frozen form. just try to be a little more mature for everyones sake, please, because i myself know what its like to be on the other side. cody, i feel for ya, ppl like that need 2 be taught a lesson in common courtesy.

February 25, 2008 10:48 PM  
Blogger eeed said...

Hey Don.How will the ride home for me be tomorrow,around midnight from Lancaster to West Seneca/Buffalo border? Will I have to worry about white-outs? Thanks!

February 25, 2008 10:50 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

Late Evening Update: I upped the ante based on evening soundings, placement of the 0 degree isotherm at 850mb, and the somewhat colder 00z NAM run--along with our Super Microcast later run increasing the snow and decreasing the mixture in coverage.

Up to 2" by 8am. 3-5" by evening. Another 3-5" overnight. 2-3" add'l possible Wed AM. Blowing Snow becomes more of a problem by the evening commute into Wednesday. Even if a mix does develop to the south, enough snow with orographic lift in higher elevations will compensate for short period of mix. Local effects of lk enhancement bring revised storm totals to 10-13" by midday tom'w N & NE of Buffalo; 8-10" metro and points east; 9-12" over higher terrain.

Lt Snow goes over to moderate by midday/early afternoon, and winds pick up by mid/late afternoon. Snow will be moderate much of the time overnight, but with gusty wind and blowing snow, it will certainly appear to be heavy. In any case, accumulations will be heavy, and the long duration makes heavy accumulations all but inevitable. My numbers still may be a bit low, should the storm go deeper than progged by the models.

February 25, 2008 11:53 PM  
Anonymous adam said...

Don,

I find it a little strange that our frinds in Canada (over on the other side of the falls etc) have no watch, warning or advisory at all. I would have to think that the Niagara canada region should have a winter storm warning or something, as we do... do you agree?

February 26, 2008 12:16 AM  
Anonymous sabresfan said...

wow, I caught a glimpse of the squall line going through the SouthEast. Its pretty intense and large!!! There's already a tornado warning in Alabamba...

here's a really good interactive tornado link for anyone interested. Real time tornado link with warnings posted as they hit:
http://www.wunderground.com/tornado

February 26, 2008 8:14 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Just a web page suggestion:

Might make the web page easier and quicker to read if you put the most recent postings first (on top) instead of making everyone page down to the end of the blog for the most recent postings.

February 26, 2008 9:11 AM  
Anonymous Don K said...

Anyone who likes to track regional and local weather conditions, will really like the website weatherbonk.com
It combines Google Maps with webcams, radar, and other information sources . You just enter a zip code to get to a starting point. Zooming and click/drag on the map will move you around the world. Many weather and traffic cams are available, as are the usual google map features (Map Satellite Hybrid) Be sure to click on Power Map for the biggest map view. Have Fun.

February 26, 2008 10:09 AM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

LATE MORNING UPDATE: Based on a look at morning data, I'm lowering storm total accumulations from my late night forecast: 6-8" Buffalo metro area to the east (srn Gen, nrn Wyom Cos), 8-10" higher terrain to the south, and 10-12" closer to Lk Ontario. Morning NAM, which had been the most aggressive with QPF is less so today; boundary layer winds for tonight and tomorrow look somewhat less impressive for significant lake enhancement. All in all, less impact to this storm than yesterday's guidance indicated. Still a chance for a few hours of wintry mix closer to the PA line this afternoon.

February 26, 2008 11:28 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Don-

Why do almost all storms this winter get so much hype, yet the day the storm actualy gets here, accumulations are cut down a good amount. Theres only prob 3 inches so far, and its only on the grass here in Amherst, its not sticking to the roads because the temp outside is only 33 degrees. This storm has just begun, and its looking less impressive than I thought it was going to be. This always happens! I for some reason dont see Amherst getting 10-12 inches of snow.

February 26, 2008 11:40 AM  
Anonymous rich said...

How is Friday's storm (clipper) looking? Would you say its a "no biggie?" Or does it still bear watching?

February 26, 2008 11:43 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

So far, I would say that the weather we're having right now is of advisory level if that...

When will the snow start to kick in? Its flurries outside...

February 26, 2008 11:50 AM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

I'd be surprised if you actually have 3 inches at this time, anonymous. The snow was expected to be light in the morning, along with a forecast high of 32-35. I've dropped accumulations back some, but this is not that huge an adjustment compared to the swings which occur in snow forecasts more often than you know.

February 26, 2008 11:53 AM  
Anonymous andy said...

Don, how can the Niagara Region in Canada have no advisory or warning at all for this storm? That seems strange! Niagara-on-the-Lake, Clifton, Fort Erie and St. Cathrins... which are just over the river wont be getting as much snow as us? Still I would have to think it would be enough to spark an advisory or "special weather statement." Wouldn't you agree?

February 26, 2008 12:41 PM  
Anonymous matt said...

Don-

It is 34 degrees outside here in Wolcottsburg (Clarence) right now. There is about 1.5-2 inches of snow so far, and it tends to melt when it hits the pavement. When do you think the temp will drop below the freezing mark? And when will the snow pick up in intensity, and start to add up? ...If this is how the whole storm is going to play out, then there is no need for a warning. Also it looks like a dry slot could be heading our way from the west.

February 26, 2008 12:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There is a huge dry slot coming our way. There goes our snow storm : (

February 26, 2008 1:00 PM  
Anonymous adam said...

Hey Don, I like the "weather scroll" you used at the bottom of the TV this afternoon... it gets peoples attention much more than the other one!

February 26, 2008 1:03 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I bet this warning will be cancled early!

February 26, 2008 1:12 PM  
Anonymous gary said...

I really hope we at least get 8 inches of snow here in Amherst, like we're supposed to at the very least! This better not be another "dud" as it is looking right now.

February 26, 2008 2:04 PM  
Blogger mike said...

3 inches total so far in Arcade as of 2 pm with moderate snow coming down.

February 26, 2008 2:13 PM  
Anonymous sabresfan said...

There doesnt seem to be too much moisture in the wrap-around of this "9". There was the mention of the frontogenesis...is that what will intensify things? because right now the radar isnt at all impressive.

February 26, 2008 2:28 PM  
Anonymous barrie1 said...

Hey Andy and other web bloggers

You questioned why Environment Canada has no warnings posted for Niagara area.
A 'special weather statement' was issued highlighting another snow event was on the way for Southern Ontario.
Niagara region is supposed to get 5 to 10 cm/2 to 4 inches today and a similiar amount tonight. E-C has specific criteria as to when a heavy snowfall warning or winter storm warning is issued--and in this case--it doesn't meet the requirement based on snowfall amount and how much will fall in specific time period etc etc.
Toronto expecting 2 to 4 inches. In my neck of the woods--a dusting to 2 inches. I am an hour north of Toronto.
There is a snowfall warning for Eastern Ontario(Cornwall area). Up to 25 cm or 10 inches by tomorrow!
Hope you good folks in the city of Buffalo get some snow. I noticed by these blogs in recent weeks how you've been disappointed this winter because you can't get a decent snowstorm.

February 26, 2008 2:34 PM  
Anonymous SnowMan said...

So much for our storm, Here in West Seneca we have about 1.5" now and been out side the whole time and its been only light snow if that. :( Any hope this storm will intensify over night or later on?

February 26, 2008 2:39 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

Not that there's been any impressive snowfall yet, but we're losing some of what we've got owing to some of the sun's energy being absorbed at the ground (insolation). Snow will average from light to moderate in intensity into early tomorrow, and accumulations will mount up more by and after dark. Until I see the 18z run, I'll stick with my somewhat reduced storm total projections from late this AM on this blog.

I'm amused by Gary's "this better not be another 'dud'...." What if it is, Gary? I think you'll learn to adjust. (Could be worse; NYC's had just 11.7" for the whole winter, including last week's storm which nearly paralysed air travel. By the way, another individual on another weather blog listed NYC as among the cities having a rougher winter than Buffalo--wonder how he came up with that well-researched conclusion.

February 26, 2008 2:49 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

does this really qualify for a winter storm warning?

February 26, 2008 3:05 PM  
OpenID snoblaster37 said...

is the snow going to intensify over nite because this is pethetic and will schools be affected

February 26, 2008 3:09 PM  
Anonymous sabresfan said...

that storm last week gave us over a foot in S.Chtwga...it was a very narrow band, but a decent snowfall for us. (my measurement was at 13.4" and was very light and fluffy at 3am but with warming the snow had condensed to about 10" by morning.)
anyways, I thought that should be considered...seems like folks forgot about that already.

February 26, 2008 3:09 PM  
Anonymous thompson1 said...

How do you go from forecasting a foot+ to 4-6 inches total storm accumulation, with up to 8 inches near Lake Ontario. Wow how things change.

What ever happened to "the drive home is supposed to be a rough one!"?? Im sure it will be for people who wanted to see a nice snow storm.

In all honesty, Im sooo sick of the hype for snow storms, then they get here and that foot+ we were supposed to get turns into 4 inches. Oh I cant wait for spring, just so this stops.

For all the meteorologists sakes, I hope something changes and happens here with this "snow storm" or lack of. I can only guess how they feel after getting a total of 4 or 5 inches, when 10-12 was strictly forecasted by them.

Now I know this storm is not done with us yet, but you and I both know we'll wake up in the morning with prob only 3 more inches at the most on top of that whopping 1 inch we already have.

Now Im no offical met, but Im going to guess the same thing will happen with Friday's clipper. Although it will prob be a mix or rain, when they forecast it to be snow.

Sorry for the harshness, but I had to get that out there.

February 26, 2008 3:19 PM  
Blogger Don Paul said...

thompson+

Your post has quite a few inaccuracies in it (we NEVER forecast a foot for the Buffalo area), but I understand your frustration--up to a point.

You have definitely overstated your case, but that doesn't mean your remarks are entirely without merit.

February 26, 2008 3:23 PM  
Blogger eeed said...

Boy, Don. I bet when you started this blog you didn't realize that you would have to defend yourself so much. You are THE BEST.It's time people get over themselves,and realize how blessed we are to have you here.

February 26, 2008 3:26 PM  
Anonymous charles said...

Yea, Im at the point where I feel bad for WNY meteorologists. They just haven't been on the ball with these bigger storms!

Today 3-5 inches of snow was forecasted. That means that the very least amount of snow anyone would recieve would be 3 inches.

Did anyone even get 3 inches of snow? Be honest! I live in Lockport, close to lake ontario, and I was supposed to get even more than that.

Well guess what! We only have an inch and a half to two inches. Whereas we were told we have a much better chance of being closer to that 5 inch mark living up here.

Ughhh, I am somewhat suprised. I guess I should have never got my hopes up to begin with!

February 26, 2008 3:29 PM  
OpenID snoblaster37 said...

don

is the snow going to intensify over nite because this is pethetic and will schools be affected

February 26, 2008 3:29 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok NWS, stop messing with us anymore than you have already!

You can cancle the winter storm warning now!
(The one that never should have been in place to begin with)

February 26, 2008 3:33 PM  
OpenID afinogenovm said...

Don whats happining can you please tell us.Will the snow pille up as the sun goes down???-Adam from Hamburg

February 26, 2008 3:34 PM  
Anonymous dan said...

Ummm, so where's the snow?

February 26, 2008 3:35 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

guys ur making me upset just reading all these entries. now is not the time to be in self doubt. theres a thing called the doppler radar that will show you where the heaviest snow is and where it is moving. now i dont think we are completely out of it yet and may just get that 8-14 inches up to the north just yet. im beginning to see the leading edge of an increasingly stronger area of snow to the southwest moving in our direction. there is still PLENTY of snow out to the west on the back side of this low that will take its time moving through, plus the lake enhancement factor many give the niagara and orleand counties storm totals a little boost. i do recall that they said there would be a little lull this afternoon and the heaviest of snow would fall tonight, so theres no need to fret, guys, theres still a lot of time for snow to accumulate. the warning is in fact in effect until noon TOMORROW and there could be some possible snowfall friday so dont lose hope yet!

February 26, 2008 3:40 PM  
Anonymous jessica said...

Its not even snowing here in Amherst any more. Something went wrong here... Its almost 4pm, and we have one out of the four or five inches we were forecasted to get. That stinks! Yea... this storm so far is nothing at all!! : (

February 26, 2008 3:43 PM  
Anonymous dan said...

W.E.B.W.

If you were to call 844-4444 this afternoon, you would have heard Don say that the lake enhansement off of Ontario looks less likely than it ever did. There will be some, but not as much as they origionally thought.

Sorry! Im saddened too!

February 26, 2008 3:46 PM  
Anonymous Mark said...

Well, there are still 8 or so hours left in today and if Don's suggestion that when the sun goes down we will get more snow is correct, 3 inches is likely, and as the temps take a nosedive we'll see what transpires overnight. It was said that if temps stayed higher that snow totals would be down. Seems like that's what happened/is happening?

Weather is chaotic and it seems many of these storms this year have been similar, with rain snow or wet snow. Mets can't really predict the future, they just try to give us something within an acceptable range that we can work with. Today I was ready for snow, but I'm glad its not too bad. I have to drive from West Buffalo, to Amherst, then back to North Boston. This weather is just fine!

February 26, 2008 3:49 PM  
Anonymous what else but weather said...

ok but still im keeping my hopes up i mean a nnw flow will give us some limited lake enhancement but come on guys i checked out the radar from cleveland and there is a moderate to heavy area of snow and it stretches pretty far. its this snow that still has to move into our region. well idk i just want a really big storm and no school 2morro.

February 26, 2008 3:50 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Don rocks too. He's the best. But it in all honesty, people are sick of the "fright-cast"

It seems like everytime were predicted to get more than an inch of snow...it makes the top story. Last night and I think one night last week, the 10pm news (CH23)started with "ALERT". When I think of an alert or breaking news, I think of someone breaking out of jail or big shooting or something. Last night, my friend and I were watching and at 9:59 I said, whatch this...It will say "Alert". Sure enough, it comes on. Even better was the file footage of some car being dragged out of a ditch. It made it seem like it had ALREADY been snowing.

The hype by the news portion of each show is WAY too much. It really is the talk of the town.

I still think Don Paul rocks.

February 26, 2008 3:51 PM  
Anonymous