50/50 1st Weekend of March
A burst of snow showers and brisk winds continue to reduce visibility on area roadways along with a few slick spots late Saturday afternoon. However, this activity will gradually weaken tonight behind a departing northeast storm. A brighter, better-looking day is shaping up Sunday with high pressure strengthening across the Great Lakes, giving way to partly to mostly sunny skies. A southerly flow around this dry weather system will give temps a springlike boost over the next couple of days. While Sunday will start off on a chilly note, temps will rise to above the freezing mark in the afternoon with highs in the mid 30s. Even warmer air pushes in Monday with highs soaring to around 50. Local weather will become rather active this upcoming week with rain showers developing Monday, gradually changing to a wintry mix Tuesday, followed by colder air and a few snow showers on Wednesday. Another interesting system bears watching for the end of the week.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
4:51 PM
61 Comments:
Interesting watching the radars light up this afternoon with our quick burst of snow. IMBY in S. Amherst, we've had a quick inch over the last couple hours. BUF NWS issued a good explanation of the factors behind our afternoon snow:
SOME LK HURON STREAMERS HAVE WORKED ACROSS SRN ONTARIO INTO NIAG
PENINSULA AS OF 19Z AND THEN ENCOUNTERED CONVERGENCE BETWEEN THE
LAKES...A SPRINGTIME PHENOMENON...RESULTING IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
SQUALLS MOVING INTO NRN PART OF BUF METRO.
Gregn: While there is some minor lake influence, most of this general snow burst is in association with the backside of the departing New England storm system. The air has been unstable across these parts today, and the tail end of this storm is mainly responsible for our snow shower activity. This will shut down later tonight as drier air builds into the region.
Hey MB. You don't get enough credit. You really know your stuff!
All and all we had a pretty nice, sunny day here in the Southern Tier and no serious snow. It's a lovely weekend for people who like winter! It beats mud!
Thanks Eeed!
Gimmer: Snow is sinking southward into southern tier, so you will get a lil' piece of the action before it winds down later tonight...
Any flooding concerns this week?
Chris: As of now, I don't see heavy rain in the forecast for Monday. But with a major warmup coming our way and additional liquid precip on Tuesday, perhaps we could be on the lookout for some minor ice jam flooding. Right now, I don't see this as a major flood threat. As more data becomes available, we'll have a clearer picture.
Number 1 Source for Weather says...
I am posting a Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday night through Wednesday. Sorry MB, your data is not as up to date as ours. :-/
its interesting because somw say we are going to get some heavy snow tuesday afternoon. once again, a lot of confusion on what source to believe. i wanna believe wer are getting that but doesnt sound promising.
about later in the week, i mentioned that the GFS looked a little ominous. in terms of magnitude, how does a 983 mB low rate, MB? and the track over albany would definitely give us a hefty snow and keep us on the cold side. a possible GIGUNDO WHOPPER? :) lol thats what im hopin
every1, go check the models and tell me about what you see. i want everyone to see them.
I'm not sure what qualifies you to give your predictions if you're not certified mets, but I can tell you the data points more to a rain to wintry mix or freezing rain event for Tuesday. Heavy accumulations of snow are not likely as we are again on the border line of below and above freezing temps during that time period. I've mentioned this several times before...it's tough to get big snowfall accumulations when temps are near the freezing mark. The ECMWF and GFS models combined hint at the icing prospects for this region. What I'm most concerned with now would be freezing rain, and that could spell problems for some if the data continues to enfold in that wintry mix direction.
The current track of the GFS takes the storm over central and eastern new york which would result in heavy snows for the Buffalo area , maybe upwards of a foot.
i do have to agree with what else but weather said , the GFS does show significant snows for us with the predicted track . a foot is not out of the questions , but before we go making a true prediction and getting all hyped up , wait and see what tonight's GFS model run says.
sry mb i was talking about friday, NOT tuesday
but im checking the GFS right now...and...
the track looks pretty much through central new york. folks, that would put us in a wintry mix/rain scenario unless the track is further to the east.
in my post, i was referring to later in the week...friday and saturday. im EXTREMELY concerned about this storm because of its implications ahead of time. the storm is going to be strong (can someone tell me just how strong 983 mB is?), looks to be strong winds, and its gonna wind up in the northeast to cause HUGE problems.
look from days 7-8 and you will see what i mean. day 7 has the low at 987 mB. respectable. day 7.5 gives it a 983 mB pressure as it moves over EASTERN new york. day 8 is 977 =0 mB and that spells disaster to me. i was just thinking...the strongest hurricane, I BELIEVE, was 882 mB, so in comparsion, no hurricane, probably not a Perfect Storm, but it could be PERFECT for a snowstorm that we all SO DESPERATELY WANT, am i right or am i right?
channel 4, what do you think of this latter-week storm? could it be absolutely treacherous for us, could we see something close to a blizzard (isobars very tightly packed with low near makes me think there will be a lot of wind), and, AND, with where the low will be, could there be lake enhancement in the north with a northeast flow?
yes, it is VERY early, but i think this storm needs mentioning NOW. am i hyping it up? of course i am. but come on, this could be big, people, the storm we need. (and accumulations? what are you kidding me? its like trying to predict snow in the bahamas...IT JUST DOESN'T HAPPEN!!! :) so i wont even think about asking...YET :) )
mb you are great i would NEVER think i am better than you, i am only a lowly high schooler :) just throwing out my very-inaccurate-more-hype-than-right predictions :) dont u love weather?
hey people where are the comments? i keep checking and no one else has commented. i guess i'm the only one interested in the late week monster :(
I think some of the way-too-frequent posters in here need to get out of the house and spare us from your overly-dramatic 'predictions' (and believe me, with some of you geeks, that word needs to be put in quotes).
I can just hear MB thinking...'I don't have to respond to this crap, do I?'
Big LOL.
HEY Number 1 Source... Ive heard about you, you always "nut" the forecast right on the money.. Saw you on a blog in Detroit take those guys to school!! No kiddin, you're calling out a WSW for Tuesday night??
I'll have my shovel in hand bro! You ROCK! Keep up the good work!
NFH
Heyyyy MB, how much ice, snow, sleet, or rain can we be expecting?????Could there be a possible advisory/warning or whach assosieated with this system and what about friday, i hear there might be heavy snow around that time?????THANKS-Adam from Hamburg
The NWS statement from this morning really leaves a lot of room for just about anything to happen later Monday - Tuesday. A few bits and pieces from the morning discussion. The complete text on their webiste has the full discussion with all the extra technical talk.
MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY IN A MONTH OR MORE...
THEN...THE FORECAST GETS VERY COMPLICATED...
A SHOT OF RAIN SHOWERS MON NT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR CHANGING THE
PRECIP OVER TO SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND VERY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING HOURS...
AND ADDING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ICE STORM IS THE LOCATION OF THE FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DRAWING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...A CLASSIC ICE STORM PATTERN...
THE NAM STILL SHOWS A VERY
STRONG INDICATION OF WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...
IF THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION...THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY...
*****BUT THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND THE ORIENTATION OF THE WARM CONVEYOR...*****
So really this could be anything from all rain, to all snow, to all ice, to a mix of them all.
Should be one hell of a storm for the NWS and the 4 team to try and forcast with the again uncertain type of precip.
Number 1 Source for Weather says...
Afin, Ive posted an early Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday evening for all 7 WNY Counties including Metro Buffalo. See above.
Yes MB I am certified as you callously toss around the term. Bottom line is, Ive got people on the right side of forecasts more than the wrong. That's the name of the game isnt it? I am welcome on blogs from Iowa throughout New England for my abilities to forecast the weather in understandable terms. Not tossing ridiculous terms and phrases about which are for all intents and purposes meaningless to most bloggers. But, if it makes you feel important.. Carry on.. It's a free country last time I checked. :)
Lots of ego, Number 1. I don't believe that is needed on this forum.
Feel free to start your own blog.
I don't think anybody wants to read your comments if they're going to be based on insulting the channel 4 staff who are taking time out of their personal lives to offer us a more detailed look at the weather.
Please leave your ego at the door.
Number 1 Source for Weather says;
With all due respect Paul, Mary Beth attacked me the moment I came on. So check up on the previous posts before jumping the gun please and thank you. This is a blog were people match up their forecasting skills against those of you working alittle OT is it not? Suffice to say my skills have proven superior and you're jealous. That's a shame. Bottom line is I travel around where I am needed. NWS blog monitoring has this blog on notice for not being very accurate of late. You're gunshy kid, spit the bit.. Im here to help ya get back on track. Winter Storm Watch for Tuesday PM.. Remember where you heard it kiddo.. Im here for ya.. Going forward, let's all try to remain civil.
NWS Blog Monitoring??? LMAO!!! You've got too much time on your hands my friend.
thegeneral- very interesting.
and i would also like to say that if that rude anonymous poster would like to name some of those "way-too-frequent" posters then i would like to hear them. ill freely admit, i love this blog and yes, i comment a lot, but i see no harm in it.
anyway...how did that get in there?...about the tuesday "surprise". definitely an extremely intersting scenario unfolding. this storm does not seem to get as much hype as others have this season because of the large room for error. i, for one, would love to see a huge ice storm, snow too, but to tell you the truth, im wanting spring to come more and more. could you give me the link to that discussion? i would like to read it. anything from a huge ice storm, to a huge snowstorm, to a huge rainstorm, or maybe a little bit of everything. wow. monday-wednesday look to be a very interesting time period. friday-saturday could be, too, aluthough the GFS puts that low well out to sea now. :( hey its only sunday there is time for that to evolve.
as for tuesday, the GFS now takes the low on a northeasterly track through central pennyslvania and eastern new york, a change from yesterday. that would give us more snow if that track remained, but the NAM model, however, brought the low somewhere over Rochester, and painted it a little stronger. this could mean more rain or a devastating ice storm as already mentioned. not sure what to think of this next storm, until some certainty comes about it. i would just like to mention the hazardous weather outlook on the NOAA website:
LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
who really knows? once again, it's anybody's guess now, until we see some confirmation in the track. otherwise, an exciting time yet again!!!! :)
mb, where are you? i would like to hear some feedback from a professional because there are people on here who think they are ;)
The 12z models really upped the amount of precip possibily comming our way. The GFS has us around 2 inches while the NAM added an area of 3+ inches south and east of Buffalo.
Don't know if this is a comming together trend or a one run bump that will head back down, but thats a lot of precip comming our way. Could be some issues if enough of that falls as snow or a mix.
Number 1 Source says;
Excellent observation General, it is my assumption that the NWS will post an "watch" no later than Monday at noon. The committee meets at 9am to determine such things. I agree, that does seem like an awful lot of precip.
Well, as the phrase says, "March in like a lion, out like a lamb." This looks to be true... as of today (Sunday) it looks as though Monday will be the only day this week where temps will be in the 50's. With that said, this week is going to be very active! At first glance, we thought precip Tue-Wed would be a plain rain, changing to a mix/ frz rain... now it looks as though this storm system will be much more on the winter side, rather than the spring side. We could be getting a run for our money with snow and or freezing rain... if you have checked out the latest model runs, you would notice that small change lol! Winters not done with WNY yet! There are some post(s) above that talk about a 'winter storm watch' being issued some time early this week... well I wouldnt rule it out by any means!
Anonymous please dont be rude, there are more professionals here than
meets the eye.. Some more capable than others I would say.. Relax and try and learn something. :)
IF THE GFS TREND CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION...THIS COULD TURN OUT TO BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT FOR
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE UPPER SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY TUE THRU WED MORNING...
AND ADDING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ICY STORM IS THE
LOCATION OF THE FRIGID HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC.
GFS IS VERY RELUCTANT TO MOVE THIS COLD DOME ANY FARTHER EAST THAN
THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...DURING WHICH
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE DRAWING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON NORTHEAST WINDS AND WARMER AIR ALOFT FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...A CLASSIC ICY STORM PATTERN.
i only said that because the ne guy is saying all this stuff about posting a winer storm watch and i dont know where he got that from and if it is valid. believe me, i know a lot so dont fret.
I believe that was a prediction which has about a 99.9% chance of coming true. That's called forecasting. Something we need to see alittle more of on this blog. Not WAIT til it happens then report it. Forecast it. He said there was GOING to be a watch posted. He didnt say there WAS. There are several people here who understand what that means and concur. It's forecasting 101 not looking at maps and waiting. Sheesh.
Excellent finish to our first weekend of March. A messy storm system is heading our way starting late Monday night with rain developing first and changing to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. There may be an icy buildup on Tuesday with the possiblity of significant precipitation, and that will prompt slippery travel Tuesday into Wednesday. Details tonight at 6pm on News 4...
I think our trend will continue , same old song and dance..
Warm , Rain , Sleet/ Freezing rain / Snow..Shheessh what ever happen to a good ole snow storm , safely sneaking up on us and closing the city down for a couple days off..
Question I have for Team WIVB ,if it's not to far out to tell , will anyone of the precip types be long lasting , or will we get more quick shot/ dry slots , and if and only if this turns to a ALMOST all snow event : Would it be a Whopper?
Thank you for listening and responding to us..
MB has ESP, Just posting as she did..... =]
We could be part of this:
Probabilistic View:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
Winter Storm Watch for South-Central Ontario with risk of freezing rain late evening or midnight changing to light rain and temps up to 45 Farh Monday am.
Rainy Mon. afternoon changing to light snow in the evening.
No WSW for Toronto or Niagara.
MB--you mention the possibility of significant precip Tuesday in WNY--rain or frozen precip? Not a heavy rain forecast for our area tomorrow...maybe 5mm.
thanks
Storm Watcher says,
As long as we're all handicapping, let me put in my two cents....My prediction is that the NWS may very well put in a watch or advisory, maybe even a warning, but as we have seen earlier this winter, that hasn't meant squat in terms of what we actually get...my guess is that it's another in a long line of teasers this winter, with eastern parts of the state getting his harder than we do...one waits with great anticipation for the latest explanation of why it fell flat...maybe the proximity to the spring solstice and the recent lunar eclipse...bottom line, just a messy couple of days and nothing more....comments??
AMEN! Totaly agree!
to Stormwatcher, you would be the first among others to flip out on them if there wasnt a advisory, watch or warning.. So the NWS and Ch. 4 can never win with people like you.
You know what though... watch it be the last winter storm in March be our biggest of the season. You never know! Watch all of us get into the mood where we tell ourselves that this one will be a dud like the rest... and it ends up being a whopper of a storm.
NWS forecast discussion says this event will prob be more of an advisory type. Not much snow is likely with this storm system they say, and little freezing rain is expected. This event will be a mainly rain and sleet type of event. Southern tier will see more in the way of freezing rain. North towns wil see more in the way of sleet/ snow.
WITH EVERYTHING THIS STORM SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER AND ALL THIS BEING CONSIDERED...AND AFTER COORDINATION WITH ALL
NEARBY OFFICES...IT WAS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY WATCHES FOR
NOW. WE NEED AT LEAST 0.5 INCH OF ICE OR 7 INCHES OF SNOW FOR A
WARNING AND BECAUSE OF THE MIX OF EVERYTHING...CONFIDENCE IN
REACHING EITHER CRITERIA IS LOW...IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ADVISORY
EVENT INSTEAD. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY.
Storm Watcher says...
Actually, I don't flip out if they don't post an advisory, etc....I'm kind of old school like that...don't post something unless it's actually warranted...Like the "warning" from the middle of last week....that was a total joke...besides, watches and warnings should only be posted unless it is a potentially life threatening situation....therefore, they should reserved for wind chill factors of -20 or greater, or only posted for heavy snowfall within a few hours of the event when the forecast has really come together...let's face it, 90% of us who live here are WNY "lifers"...we know what winter is like around here, what can happen, and how it can change...we take that into consideration before we plan or do ANYTHING...I've had this conversation with Don and he often bristles at it, but the forecasting, at least in terms of winter storms, is much more inconsistent now than it was 10 years ago...not because the mets are not as good or better, but because they are so quick to push the panic button and issue warnings, et. al., when they really aren't warranted, leading to inevitable let down and skeptical people...
When its all said and done will pick up MAYBE 1/10th of an inch of ice and about 2 inches of snow.
Most of the precip will be RAIN.
Afternoon guidance showing that we may have a few waves of precip starting Monday night into Tuesday morning, then a break and more later Tuesday into Wednesday. It'll start off as light rain at the onset later tomorrow evening, changing to a wintry mix and snow toward Tuesday morning with around an inch of accumulation. There's some subsidence involved here, so that may cut down on the heavy precipitation. An icy mix of freezing rain/sleet may redevelop Tuesday PM. Icy conditions may present problems on area road ways.
For serious snow lovers (myself included!), you'll have to wait awhile for any big snow totals, because it just doesn't look likely with this next system.
Upper atmosphere will be about 3 degrees too warm for a major snow event this week. Epects some watches and warnings never the less at least for potential flooding with our snow pack and expected qpf..
As always best to have batteries and a battery operated readio since ice is in the forecast..
I think its interesting how someone late last week was saying Don's forecasted high of around 45 degrees for tomorrow (monday) was too high. That person said they "analyzed the data" and determined that it would definitely not get over 40 or 41 degrees, and asked why Don was not changing his forecast.
Well, the currect forecast is for highs in the mid 50's tomorrow. The NWS said that a couple warmer areas in the genesee valley could even hit 60.
So, even though both forecasts were wrong, Don's was closer. The point I am trying to make is that people without any training or background in meterorology should not come on here and constantly second guess the WIVB forecasts. That is not what this blog was made for. Not saying that people can't have their own opinions, but it should be kept reasonable. This blog was made for people to chat who have a common interest in the weather, not for people to bash each other.
I just thought I would throw that out there and I hope that people will keep it in mind....
You are referring to my post and I'll happily respond. The data indeed said only 40 or 41. The next day, on this web site, the forecast high was also lowered to 41, which I made mention of in a subsequent post. That was a while ago, and obviously data changes and it's now obvious it will be a much milder day Monday than anyone thought many days ago.
I admit to being a little overly sarcastic in my posts, most of it a result from many badly blown forecasts on the more interesting weather days this winter.
Plus, Don Paul is a little overly sensitive. He's not the WNY weather God who stands above all others. He's okay, equal to most of the people on his own staff, and most of the people on the other stations.
MB---
With what you know about our next weather event coming Tue-Wed... are you leaning towards an advisory or a warning being issued for us? Im pretty sure its going to be one or the other. Thanks MB!
I can say just from all the years of watching the news and the weather Don is right more than anyone else so that is why that is who I most put my faith in. It's kinda fun like a good race horse you can watch your nag cross the finish line every week in the top horses. Being I am 50 and have watched wivb since I was 16 I have confidence in Channel 4. Now it's so cool if I miss the news because I am busy I can check in on the website. You gotta love the Net! I like hard science and that is what you get from MaryBeth and Mike and Don. We are lucky here lots of areas have horrible weather forcasts because the stations don't care.
Chris: It's likely to be one or the other. The data strongly points toward an icy event with shallow cold air at the surface and warm air aloft. If the precip is light, it may an advisory, if it's heavy enough, it may be a warning. No matter what, I do believe travel conditions have a good shot at becoming dicey and icy Tuesday into early Wednesday.
Gimmer: thanks for the compliments to WeatherWatch 4. Yes indeed, the internet is becoming a juggernaut along with News 4/23 in disseminating weather and news information....and there's no better place to get your local information than on www.WIVB.com
OMG that NUMBER ONE SOURCE FOR WEATHERH GUY absolutely NUTTED this Winter Storm Watch!! Holy cow!! 4Team should hire this guy!!!! Way to go NUMBER ONE!!! You're the best Met on here!!
NFH
there sure seems to be alot of "wanna be" weather people out there. I thought these blogs were to discuss weather, ask questions etc. and aboutmaking predictions. Leave the forcasting up to the wivb weather staff!!!!....sheesh
whoops its early i meant to say THESE BLOGS ARE NOT ABOUT MAKING PREDICTIONS.........
Another sign of spring.... HOSPICE BOUQUETS!!!!
We have 4-5 snows left. Some snows dont get counted if they dont stick for long enough and/ or melt away, so these spring storms that bring the "white trifle" of a precip mix for the most part wont be counted...
With that being said, this spring will be abnormally active with storms. Lots of wind and mixed precip types of storms. good thunderboomers, too... and with these storms, the precip will be more than ample. These strong La Nina storms will persist until summer, losing the frozen/mixed precip element around late march early april. Summer begins in May, as we may be looking towards the warmest May on record!
This is based on Farmers Almanac information and anceint folk weather predicting "tricks".
One week we spring forward!
btw...these storms will be about as easy to predict and a whirlling dervish...take it easy on these mets...unless they are psychic, they wont be able to peg these storms down...Its just too hard.
Wow, folks just seem to be prognosticatin' left and right! I've seen armchair forecasts for everything but hail the size of canned hams. Hopefully most of us have the good sense to "never mind the bollocks".
Spring's coming, as are the Police and Van Halen! Gas up the Camaro and grow your mullet back out, we're going to party like it's 1984!
:)
LOLOL good one MArshall!!!!!!!!!!
I wish you could add smileys to our posts. We could use a lot of rolled eyes smileys.
I agree in letting the wivb folks handle the forecasting. I don't think this blog was meant to constantly prove the Channel 4 gang wrong.
The temps have already blown by the "have no idea how you guys could predict a high of 46 Monday" and now we have to wait for this "foot of snow" Friday (enter rolled eye smiley, rolled eye smiley).
Sorry for the rant, but these anonymous met posters do get annoying. At least if you are going to do your own forecasting, put your name on it rather than anonymous. This way everyone can call YOU out when you are wrong!!
Hey mets, how about on new thread on our "Winter Storm Watch".....only spare the hype....it's gonna be a clunker anyway....
To that "anonymous" poster concerning the 40 or 41 degree high.
You've given yourself away, in terms of honesty. The "data" never said anything as low as 41. There is only one data source for a temperature that far out in time and, while a real met could elect to not buy into the mid 40s at that point, the actual mode output statistics predicted high never was that low.
In other words, your pants must be on fire....
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