Holiday Week to Serve Up Wild Weather Changes
St. Patrick's Day, The Spring Equinox, Easter.... all within a week...and lots going on in the weather department during this holiday span. Sunshine kicks off the week on this St. Patrick's day, comfortable highs in the upper 30s and only a slight breeze. A storm pulling out of the plains will give temps a springlike boost during the final days of winter. By Tuesday morning, rain will spread across the region, becoming steady at times through the day and temps bouncing back into the 40s. With rising temps, rain combined with a melting snowpack may prompt flooding concerns across WNY going into midweek. In fact, temps will soar into the low 50s on Wednesday along with strong winds, showers and possible thunderstorms. This will quickly be followed by a shot of cold air that will arrive in time for the first day of Spring on Thursday with gusty winds and a few snow showers. Another interesting storm bears watching for the end of the holiday weekend going into Monday (also known as Dyngus Day.) In a nutshell, it's a busy holiday week in the local weather world.
posted by Mary Beth Wrobel at
12:18 AM
87 Comments:
Let's keep up the nice job with this weather. I want to wear something nice for Easter & I don't want to wear my winter coat over it. You had a nice day for the parade & we couldn't go because of health problems; maybe next year.
Just thought I would follow up on the spring time observances that were mentioned a couple posts ago.
It looks like maple producers are definitely tapping trees now, there was a little caption write up in the Arcade Herald last week.
And, on the way back from Rochester last evening around dusk on the thruway, there were MAJOR Canada Geese flock movement overhead. There was one humongous mass of them that looked to be near the Iroquois Refuge / Tonawanda - Oak Orchard Management areas.
So, even though it is still nippy out, our area animals and plants are hearing their biological clocks sticking!!
I'm hearing about a possible rough commute tomorrow morning due to freezing rain....any validity to this?.....thanks
Just wondered if Don, Laurie or MaryBeth would be able to share with us when we might start seeing warmer temperatures that will stick around. Thanks so much.
NancySue
Sorry Mike. Didn't mean to leave you out of my last question.
NancySue
ARE WE TALKING STORMS such as snow or rain?............
Just had a quick look at the weather developing southwest of Chicago. I'm a bit surprised there are no watch boxes but I'm sure that will change later today. Is some of this stuff headed our way?
NancySue: There are no signs of any warm air staying around for the long term in the extended outlook. We may have to wait and see what April brings...
Regarding other blogger questions, I didn't forget you. I'm still going over lots of incoming data this afternoon and will have more in a while.
Mary Beth: Thanks for responding. I think it might have been 2006 when we had 70 degree weather in March. I was only hoping. Although the buzzards have arrived. That is a great sign.
NancySue
Happy St. Patty's day!
Here's a little Irish treat...its very family friendly song for the holiday. Sure to bring a smile!
copy and paste the url and enjoy!
http://youtube.com/watch?v=OCbuRA_D3KU
Howieh: Yes, some of that "stuff" is heading our way.
StormWatcher: Yes, it may start off as a wintry mix in the morning. However, the air is so dry tonight that any moisture slamming into this dome of high pressure is evaporating. With that in mind, I don't expect many if any travel troubles in the morning...the precip will be light and spotty. It will then quickly change to rain, but the rain tomorrow should also be light and spotty with plenty of dry time inbetween.
Anonymous: This is primarily a rain event, mainly late Tuesday into Wednesday...that's when we'll have to keep an eye out for any potential flooding.
No major winter storms expected until Nov '08.. Thats a date!
I suggest This site should now focus its attention to meteorological phenomena such as the 7 factors that go into a Lake Effect snow Event.
Can you guys & gals name the 7 factors?
Next we will talk about adiabatic lapse rates...
Anonymous: Be careful what you wish for... the winter season is not over yet!
Could see a few slick spots on the roads in the morning, especially from Buffalo to the north near the Lake Ontario shoreline where temps are the coldest. There's a spotty light wintry mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain coming into town overnight. The valleys may also see some brief icing at the onset. It'll change over to rain during the morning into the afternoon as temps bounce into the 40s. Take is easy on the roads if you're up and out of the house early.
Hi MB,
I'll second that warning to anonymous! I live in north Toronto and many of the side streets are STILL restricted to one lane of traffic, and I don't mean in both directions...but at least the glacier is gone from my roof, so another snowfall would not be disastrous (is that a word??).
..and forget about adiabatic lapse rates, lets discuss Showalter indices!
Good morning! Are we to be most concerned about ice jam flooding late Tues and Wed, or are we looking at lowland flooding from snow pack melt? Or both? Any potential there for serious flooding?
Lewistonmom: New guidance is suggesting rainfall amounts for most of our region will average between .5 - 1.5" with heavier rain falling later tonight and tomorrow and the greatest totals adding up across the southern tier and Genesee valley. With temps warming through the 40s, the melting dense snowpack and scheduled rainfall will most likely prompt flooding across the region. Streams and creeks will be running high, and there is certainly potential for ice jams to occur.
Howieh: We might as well discuss all of Quasi-Geostrophic Theory! Ha! Let's leave all that to the met majors. The focus now is on a warmup into the final days of winter and the prospects of flooding.
Quasi-Geostrophic theory isn't my thing. Music theory, maybe! I could discuss guitars until the cows come home. Showalter indices? No thanks, unless they involve former Arizona Diamondbacks manager Buck Showalter. As far as adiabatic lapse rates are concerned, my cousin is adiabatic....he takes insulin.
Stupid jokes - one of the many services I offer.
:)
Hi ch 4 weather...assume it is MB this afternoon.
MB..
I noticed in Mike's weather write up on the weather homepage he said the warm air might not reach Buffalo. Where I live, 90 k north of Toronto, EC had our region in rain by noon through Wed evening--up to 25 mm/1 inch. Well, it has been snow and ice pellets off/on all pm and now EC says periods of drizzle tonight, some rain Wed and plus 2/35 not plus 5/6--41/42 F as original forecast this am. EC has dropped the 10 to 15 mm of rain for tonight/tomorrow--no totals.
I plead ignorance MB. At plus 2, should I not expect a mix rather than steady rain or is it more than just temperature that decides that? I don't expect you to give me an Ontario Ontario, but the precip. type combined with forecast temp. range leaves me scratching my head.
Want to learn more......
Thanks!
MB..
that should read 'don't expect you to give me an Ontario forecast.'
and that rain was to start noon TODAY and carry through off and on until Wed. eve.
sorry about that.
Marshal Stack...lets hear it for the circle of fifths!!!!
:oP
Hi MB,
Warmup - what warmup?? I just got pelted with snow grains again! and now it's just plain cold rain; at least snow LOOKS pretty (except when it's in my driveway). Hope everyone had a happy St. Pats day - couldn't celebrate 'cause I was still hung over from celebrating Pi day!
Barrie1: Ontario may be indeed see a wintry mix continue into tomorrow. The warm air may not stretch up that far. However, there may be periods of rain wrapped in, too. So my educated guess says you could have both.
Howieh: That's cause you live north of the border...but it's scheduled to get warmer tonight and tomorrow, so keep your fingers crossed. :-)
Are there any signs of a warm up after Wednesday? I hope things start to turnaround because winter sarted late but now it seems as if it's staying late.
Marinecore3008: There are no signs of any significant warming for the remainder of March. In fact, temps will likely stay cooler than average through the end of the month. A warm weather system may push in during the first week of April, but there is no conclusive evidence yet if the warmer air will stick around.
MB
Thanks for responding to my question.
Getting some rain here. Lots and lots of ponding on the road--and it isn't raining that hard. Can't imagine what the situation would be like if it were copious downpours.
Hi MB
I just looked at the King radar and because the echo patterns west of Toronto look a bit strange I checked Exeter (near London) and it is very similar; almost looks like a standing wave. Ideas, anybody?
Howieh: I just looked on radar, and I'm not sure what you're referring to, because it all looks pretty normal to me. Perhaps service was being done on the radar at the time you looked at it? Right now, there is a broad batch of precip heading up from Ohio, crossing over western Lake Erie and aiming into Southern Ontario.
Check the Exeter radar (3rd link if you google 'exeter radar') and hit the 'play' button and you'll see what I'm referring to; just a bit unusual compared to what I'm used to seeing.
Btw, I have tickets for Wayne Newton for Casino Rama Wed evening but I'm concerned about the road conditions for the drive home about 10:30 pm. Will lowering temps cause a problem?
With all this evaporating snow having nowhere to go, I hadn't thought about fog...until I looked out my window this morning. Argh.
How long is it going to stick around? Also, with falling temps through the day, is icing a possibility later on?
Anonymous - yep, those fifths and their crazy circles. My sight reading is lousy, but learning that helped me at least identify which key I should be playing in.
Marshall Stack...
yeah I have to rely on it because I dont have an ear.
yup circle of fifths and my tuner...
:o)
back on topic
I'm building little dams in my yard to prevent my patio from flooding. Its a dirty mucky job but the rain feels nice!!!
Marshall Stack: Fog is moving out with cold air coming into town. There may be a few slick spots out there later tonight with rain changing to snow...perhaps a few icy spots developing on untreated bridges and overpasses especially, although no huge snow accumulations are scheduled. Just something to keep in mind if you're traveling.
Even though the temps are still cool, spring signs are around. We saw several dozen, yes dozen, robins over the weekend of the 15/16th and that was a great sight to behold. The canadian geese are returning to the caz. creek area on Indian Church Rd. These are all positive and uplifting signs that winter is almost done. Hang in there, watch nature.
Lorraine: Thanks for your spring report. The official Spring season kicks off at 1:48am tonight. But winter's cold is returning into the holiday weekend. I believe we'll get a break from it toward the middle of next week!
A wet steady, light snow is falling in northern OP. It has already covered all surfaces with a dusting or so of the white stuff.
-Matt from OP
Thanks for your report, Matt from Orchard Park. And Bloggers, feel free to write about your local neighborhood weather conditions tonight as we turn back the clocks into winter type weather....
Light slushy snow falling here near the airport... Surfaces are coated in white...
Crocuses are starting to come up in the Village of Lewiston. That is, where enough snow has melted already!
Roads are all covered with a slushy wet snow here in Amherst. Its very slick, and it is still coming down at a pretty good clip! Wheres spring lol?!
I
really didnt think the snow would stick as much as it is! All the trees look so neat though!
MB, mind me asking what happened to Don?
Is he on vacation? Sick?... Just wondering : )
Around a inch along the lake here in Hamburg.Just got back from the sabres game.Snowing pritty good out there.Everything is glazed in snow looks awsome.Adam from Hamburg
Chris: Don's on vacation for the entire week...a well deserve break for him!
Bloggers: Thanks for your reports. Yes, untreated roads will indeed be slick into tomorrow morning. Be careful driving.
welcome, spring!!!
Beginning of Spring Weather Update: Scattered snow showers will wind down into early Thursday with a gusty nw wind creating a nasty wind chill at times. Sunshine will follow right through the holiday weekend into early next week, albeit on the chilly side. The storm that I originally hinted at in this post for the end of the holiday weekend is now pushed back, and most likely won't get here until the middle of next week. Meantime, below average temps will likely persist for the next week or so with only minor warmups inbetween.
We got a fresh coat of whitewash last night. Its quite pretty all stuck in the trees.
no more temps in the 20s though, right? We're going to hover around freezing for a few days but there wont be any deep freezes...no more ice skating and such...am I correct?
Anyways its my wishcast that a strong southerly flow brings us warmth and sunshine and that all the models are out to lunch!
yay tha boyz are on a roll!!!!
Go Sabres!
About an inch of snow in Depew last night which partially melted and refroze overnight...and the hyacinths are poking up through the muck, too.
MB, Mike said the temps will be approching the 50 mark by next Tuseday and Wendsday is this a sign of kissing the 30s good bye or will we have to wait and see???-Adam from Hamburg.
Sabresfan: Temps will indeed drop into the 20s and teens at NIGHT through early next week with daytime days around the freezing mark.
Adam Affin: While there will be a warming trend into the middle of next week, it will be temporary...there are clearly more signs of a cool, unspringlike weather pattern persisting for a while beyond with brief warmups inbetween as I mentioned previously. Don't put away your heavy jacket just yet!
Can we put the shovels away lol?
Omg Buffalo sucks so much. Its nearly April and we cant get above 32 degrees? Is this a joke? Y do I live here! When is spring coming? At least highs in the 50s or 60s and some sun. Come on!
all I'm gonna say is that we had warmer days in January. those 60's in the beginning of the month of January aren't gonna be reached for a while.
Winter has hung around for much longer in past years...perhaps we are all a bit disoriented because Easter is early this year?
I was born in the last week of April and it snowed the day after....I have had snowy Birthdays at least half of my years.
Last year (2006-2007) we had a green Christmas and a wintery Easter. And Spring lasted all of 2 weeks before we were full blown into summer-like weather. Remember how hot May was???
The changing of the seasons gives us every type of weather...y'all be patient!
I share your frustration,annonymous.Why can't we ever have a normal spring?The cold ALWAYS lingers and lingers and lingers,while flowers start to bloom in other locales, we scrape our windows.
actually it looks like it might get warmer to the end of next week.
At least the sun is out. I'd rather have that than rain and lots of sugar-high kids stuck indoors.
Curious, is it not a holiday stateside? Just watched Mike's weather on the web and noted and his talk about conditions for the drive home. It is Good Friday in Canada--stat holiday--not to mention a Monday off too for many people.
Enjoy your Easter.
Wow! The weather around these parts have been so calm the past 2 weeks... what a nice break! Its so nice outside right now... if only the temps would feel spring-like.
Is there any storm/ weather system in the offing that is worth watching? Its been so slow weather wise the past 2 wks. Not too long before we enter the severe T'storm season...
barrie...its not a state holiday. All post offices and banks are open.. Schools are closed and some folks did get the day off. Some get to pick between Friday or Monday...some dont get any days off.
Maybe our local post office and banks get a day off on Monday? I'm not sure but its Dyngus Day so There are parades and Polish people running around whacking each other with pussy willows while singing "Roll out the Barrel".
Gotta go down to da Broadway Market, der hey!
:o)
Just clearing up some talk on what is closed and not closed. Banks and Post Offices are never closed the day after Easter.
Thanks Sabresfan. Hope your team wins tonight. So many darn Toronto fans still riding the Leafs bandwagon. No..wait. It isn't a bandwagon. It's a turnip truck.
How about those floods in Missouri, Oklahoma etc etc. Makes complaining about our cool Easter pale in comparison.
For beating us in the snow derby, it seems as tho there is a bunch of MISSING snow from Rochester to Syracuse...
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=o&page=1&template=sub&image=a1.08081.1743.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg
Apologies, looks like the link i posted didn't work... here is another one...
http://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.cgi/modis?region=o&page=1
Thanks for your sentiment Barrie...but I must say with all due respect...
aarrrgggh!!!
Saturday AM Update:
It's going to take a few more days for Mother Nature to catch up with the calendar...as a cool holiday weekend is in store. Sunny skies will work from north to south today. The S. Tier & NPA will get into some sunshine by mid-afternoon. However, despite the sunshine temps are going to remain about 10 degrees below average. More clouds will be around for the Easter holiday than originally thought. In addition, some light snow showers will develop by Easter afternoon. Little to no accumulation will be seen from these snow showers... so it shouldn't affect any travel plans. Temps start moving in the right direction by mid-week as we'll be back in the 40's. The next chance of precip will be Tuesday/Wednesday where we'll see a rain/snow mix. Temps near 50 on Friday, however that will be accompanied with some rain.
Hey Lindsay. We had sunshine in Cattaraugus County already before 9 AM this morning.
wow...NWS has our temp at 30 and Wunderground has us at 36...it feels like 46 in the shade and into the 50s in the sun. When I touched the soil in the sun it was actually warm. Do you think this radiational heating from the sun's angle could throw a wrench into tomorrows forecast? I'm wishfully thinking, but maybe the snow showers wont be able to form???
Anon: The reason why it might feel warmer to you is because of the lack of any real wind. Winds have been super light today, adding to a more comfortable feel. There's a weak disturbance pushing through tomorrow that will touch off a few light snow showers in the afternoon and evening.
Mary Beth: I wonder how you are forecasting the temp next Saturday to be 34 when as of 3 PM today the Weatherbug is saying the temps on Saturday are going to be in the upper 40's.
Bill: Temps will be slipping into the 30s on Saturday. This because of a cold front crossing through here early Saturday, sending temps downhill next weekend. If the cold front slows up and gets delayed further, then we may hit the 40s during the afternoon on Saturday. It's still a little too early to "time" the front's passage next weekend, but indeed it will turn colder again.
looks like the NAM wants this little system to stay away until about 11:00pm tonight....
Folks that are ready for the snow...its looking to hold off for a while.
Happy Easter!
a visible shot of Lake Erie seems to show the western half open and our side of the lake frozen, there is more open water than I thought and next week with 40's and rain, a lot of the ice should dissapear.
Happy Easter Weather Bloggers! Sun and high clouds will continue for the rest of this holiday afternoon with clouds increasing tonight...a chance of spotty light snow or flurries overnight into early tomorow. Otherwise, plenty of dry time into Monday PM. More active weather is lined up this week with several storm systems coming into play. There will be some temporary warm ups...but winter weather is not be over yet. More details to follow later on the blog and tonight on News 4 at 11pm and 10pm on CW 23...Enjoy the holiday!
Sunday Afternoon Update:
Clouds will be on the increase on this Easter Sunday with daytime high's ranging between 10-15 degrees below average for the date. A weak disturbance will bring us a few sct'd snow showers tonight sometime after midnight. Little to no accumulation will be seen from these snow showers. Monday will be another cold one with high's only getting into the low thirties. We'll rebound a little bit in the temperature department on Tuesday with high's around 40. However, the next system will arrive Tuesday afternoon which may start as some rain, however, it will change to snow overnight Tues. We could see a couple inches from this storm. Thursday is looking beautiful under partly sunny skies. Then another system arrives on Friday with temps nearing 50, making precip fall as rain during the day on Friday and overnight, however once the colder air behind this system is ushered in on Saturday we'll see some more flakes!
the 12z gfs is sure putting an interesting track on the storm later this week, well at least for the current run anyways.
Its about time the weather become more active around these parts... its been rather slow for a few weeks now!
Happy Easter!
The quiet weather we've had for awhile is about to come to an end. A weak disturbance arriving late tonight will trigger only a few spotty light snow showers or flurries into early tomorrow. But a stronger storm system will get here on Tuesday into early Wednesday with a rain/snow mix...and more active weather is lined up for later in the week with a colder, wintry push of air into next weekend.
interesting enough, I see a High pressure system above us at the current moment on the wunderground map...some kind of "weak disturbance" huh? looks like it fizzled completely.
Anon: Weak disturbance is here this morning with light snow showers and flurries. But we're surrounded by high pressure, so there will be plenty of dry time later today...
yeah, I see that, MB...I was very surprised by the snow after I saw the blue "H" over us at midnight last night...weather is nutty!
I hear there's LES potential for us tues-wed. What is the wind direction forecasted to be? (ie...which areas will be affected?)
Thanks
sherri in Amherst
If this wasn't a family show I'd tell you what I REALLY think of this weather!! Btw, is there any truth to the rumour that thousands of monarch butterflies have turned around and are headed back to Mexico?
Dusting to an inch of snow in our region overnight. The sun is out, but we are still well below freezing. The warmth in the March sun has quickly melted what was left on sidewalks/driveways.
EC calls for 5 to 10 cm/2 to 4 inches of snow for South-Central Ontario tomorrow and west to northwest wind to 60-k/35 mph. They had rain in our forecast for Friday but that has been flipped back to snow.
No forecast about LES. Are we out of the woods for LES around this time of year?
barrie1 - in a word - NO!
Sherri and Barrie: I don't see Lake Snow in the forecast this week. Temps will be running below average, but not cold enough. Latest satellite pics show Lake Erie is now partially ice covered, so yes, there still is some lake snow potential. Again, just don't see it this week. Don's back from vacation tonight on News 4 and he'll have more...welcome back, Don, from a well deserved break!
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