If You're Looking for a Spring Breakout,
this won't be the week, by any stretch.
One area of low pressure will bring some lt snow & rain showers into the region Tuesday afternoon probably changing to snow later Thursday evening, and ending as Wed AM flurries. Another low approaching from the lower Ohio Valley will likely bring a lot of clouds and the threat of some very lt snow on Thursday, with better organized precipitation--probably snow--Thursday night, ending early Friday. There may be some modest accumulation Thursday night. A second low by Saturday could bring more mixed precipitation, with a fresh shot of chilly air arriving for Sunday.
As for the lake effect question on the previous thread, at this time of the year the higher angle and heating of the sun would tend to take any daytime lake snow and break it up into individual cells, rather than well organized bands. At night, however, the loss of daytime heating can allow lake bands to reorganize and produce accumulating snow. While we will see some snow this week, it will be of the synoptic type (more widespread). As of today, satellite imagery appears to show around 40-45% open water on Lk Erie, mostly in the north half, with wide leader cracks in the ice to the south.
There are no signs of a true pattern switch to more consistently mild weather showing up for next week either, though there may be some brief periods of moderation.
One area of low pressure will bring some lt snow & rain showers into the region Tuesday afternoon probably changing to snow later Thursday evening, and ending as Wed AM flurries. Another low approaching from the lower Ohio Valley will likely bring a lot of clouds and the threat of some very lt snow on Thursday, with better organized precipitation--probably snow--Thursday night, ending early Friday. There may be some modest accumulation Thursday night. A second low by Saturday could bring more mixed precipitation, with a fresh shot of chilly air arriving for Sunday.
As for the lake effect question on the previous thread, at this time of the year the higher angle and heating of the sun would tend to take any daytime lake snow and break it up into individual cells, rather than well organized bands. At night, however, the loss of daytime heating can allow lake bands to reorganize and produce accumulating snow. While we will see some snow this week, it will be of the synoptic type (more widespread). As of today, satellite imagery appears to show around 40-45% open water on Lk Erie, mostly in the north half, with wide leader cracks in the ice to the south.
There are no signs of a true pattern switch to more consistently mild weather showing up for next week either, though there may be some brief periods of moderation.
posted by Don Paul at
1:35 PM
44 Comments:
Welcome back Don. At least this cold weather will keep the snow in our yard and ice on our pond and keep the geese in limbo!!! My wife just called and said we had our first fine feathered visitors this morning!!!
Thanks for the update Don, and welcome back!
Welcome back Don. Hope you had a nice vacation! Thanks for the update.
Don't quite feel back yet--you know how it feels on your first day after vaca--brain's in 2nd gear, so far.
Thanks for the nice welcome, folks.
Now that the clouds have cleared, make that at least 60% ice free on Lk Erie as of today.
Welcome back Don.
Figures the weather will begin to act up as you return. No omen I am sure!LOL
Thanks for answering my question about LES.
You mentioned snow Thursday-Friday.
Interesting, Environment Canada on Sunday had rain in the forecast for GTA-South Cen. Ont. on Friday, but they've gone to snow and windy.
5 to 10 cm/2 to 4 inches for South-Cen and 5 cm for GTA in snow and wind tomorrow. Looks like warm March sun Wed/Thursday will take care of that.
Hey folks--I see there is a windchill advisory for portions of southern Florida. No escaping it!
Welcome back Don!
Seriously I can't take this any more! It is March 24th and it feels like Feb 24th, with no real end in sight to the colder than normal weather. Usually by now I have 2-3 weeks of outdoor running under my belt and I'm thinking about biking and looking forward to swinging a golf club. Which brings me to my question: Doesn't it seem as though recently winter has been slow to arrive but then also slower to end? Its almost as though the season has been juxtaposed about 4 weeks later in the year. Of course, I have no empirical data to support that claim! Anyone else feel that way?
Mark,
In general, the growing season has lengthened throughout the NE in the last 2+ decades, with first killing frosts occurring later and last killing frosts and freezes occurring earlier.
There hasn't been a longterm trend for slower starts to spring, although early springs downwind of the Great Lakes are never a good bet.
Mark,it seems that the cold lingers here longer than anywhere else,that's for sure.
how were we at this time last year weather wise? warmer or cooler? when did our spring really kick in last year?
well, despite the colder weather I enjoyed the warm sun on my face today. Its going to get warm soon enough and then by the end of the summer y'all will complain that its too hot.
btw...I had a great run today,so Mark from OP...the first five minutes were a little tough but after I got moving and warmed up, I was sweating! suck it up, bro!
any Sabres reading this...get the lead out and pound the Sens!!!
jim,
Last year's March was more variable than this year. On March 6th, the high was 9 and the low was zero. A year ago today, the high was 47 (2 above normal), and a few days later we hit 72. There were quite a few cold days last March (see archived climate data at the NWS Buffalo site), but there also were more warm days to break things up.
In general, the eastern and northeastern landmasses downwind from the Great Lakes tend toward chilly early springs--the nature of the beast of being downwind of ice and water with prevailing SW winds much of the time.
Of course, Cape Cod is no thrill in early spring either!
wx man said about buffalo:
Thursday:
The initial wave of low pressure and its associated batch of warm advection precipitation ahead of the system should fall as snow Thursday into Thursday night, enough for a couple of inches of snow accumulation. As the stronger disturbance moves in for Friday it should warm up enough for a period of rain, which should drop a half to three quarters of an inch, as it looks right now.
As that system pulls east of you, cold air should wrap back into your area changing everything back over to scattered light snow showers as you'll be in the 500mb trough axis with several small disturbances dropping rotating through. Temperatures aloft will be marginal for some lake enhancement as well.
wx man friend: Weather models are continuously updating and timing is everything. So that statement you posted may not hold true entirely. Thursday's system may brush the southern tier and could possibly escape the rest of the local area. The better chance of moisture is Thursday night into Friday. With temps near freezing, we could be looking at a wintry mix or maybe a slushy snow or rain. Little too early to tell specifics because of the proximity to the rain/snow line. You'll need to stay tuned because the forecast will need to be tweaked this week...it's a complicated scenario with several quick moving disturbances coming into town...
hi, MB. I know that theres a continuum of precipitation possibilities with systems such as the ones that are approaching on Thurs.-Fri. I posted that forecast for 2 reasons...
1. wx man has had a bit of a better year with the tricky storms (although his job is to forecast for all of the N.E. region)his ability to pinpoint these storms has gained my confidence (no disrespect to you guys. You all work so hard and are really the best in town at forecasting and relaying the information to the public in a digestible manor)
2. because of his good record this year and the forecast was a bit different, I thought it would be nice for local folks to see this possibility as well.
weather does its own thing, though...I think we all understand that. well, most of us anyways!
Have a great day...go get some sun in your face, its GLORIOUS!
wx man friend, you read as if you're living in a fantastic world with pixies, gnomes, and elves as your company; it must be a HAPPY place!
Feel free, o friendly phantom, to share with us your wisdom from on high and down low. Perhaps you'll acquaint us with your academic background as well....
After all, it wasn't until around the 5th Seinfeld season we learned that Cosmo Kramer was a "Julliard-trained dermatologist" in the meat-slicer episode!
sfznzuhrRight now the Weather Bug is showing temps in the low to mid 40's Saturday through next Tuesday.
bill,
To clarify again, the forecast you see on the WeatherBug is the official National Weather Service zone forecast for your area.
No more comments from me on this blog then.
yeah, Don I care not to respond to such a comment.
my apologies to the others that may have found wx man's alternative forecast interesting.
Hello everyone, this is my first post. I plow in the winter, and I don't think I could stomach one more accumultion event. Don, you have the most accurate forcasts in WNY. I have given up on the weather channel etc., the only other site I check is the NEXRAD radar. Keep up the good work, and hope to hear some consistant warmer temps soon!
I have no problem with your forecast discussion. But when someone shows up on this blog in complete anonymity and makes a statement implying superior forecast skills to us, with no supporting evidence, you can bet I am going to view posts like that with some disdain.
Just state your prediction, your reasons for it(which you attempted to do) and skip the braggadocio stuff which is, frankly, silly in its context.
Great POST to WX Don! I love it. I bet he'll be back to "blog" again, despite his threats. Great to have you back on board. Hope it was a great vacation. It is a little chilly in South Florida...like 65 and breezy. Not your typical end of March Florida weather. Coming home tomorrow night...any issues that would keep a plane from landing in Buffalo?
Good afternoon/evening Don
I love daylight saving time. Gives me an extra hour of daylight to shovel snow! About 5 cm in our neck of the woods in south-central Ontario. Heavy, wet snow. Toronto also is getting a bit, but a rain/snow mix closer to you folks in Niagara.
Friday's weather has peaked my interest. EC has snow/rain mix for SW Ontario, chance of snow for Toronto and just flurries for us. Is this a system WNY/S Ont needs to watch closely or is it just going to be a run of the mill event?
tx
"skip the braggadocio stuff which is, frankly, silly in its context."
could you please tell me what you mean?
also..I have not ANY forecasting skills. I read a variety of forecasts and simply found wx man was good at accumulations. Wx man is a real met...he's on the wunderground. Look for sullivanweather and his Northeast Weather blog.
I mentioned that I meant no disrespect before...maybe you didnt catch that. I also mentioned you were the best in town. so why the animosity?
Okay, wx man friend; I misunderstood you. I'm not familiar with wx man. Wunderground is rooted at the University of Michigan, and I use the U of M website frequently to download data.
With that, I withdraw any animosity, so pls accept my apology--just a communications gap.
By the way, we take great pride in our product here at WeatherWatch 4, but I do like to remind folks that we have some extraordinarily gifted, dedicated and scholarly mets at our NWS Buffalo Office. That's not false humility on my part; that's a fact.
Lake Erie is already 60 percent open, although 40 percent is a lot of ice, I can't believe even with how cold its been the massive shield of ice continues to dwindle. It must be the sun angle or something. O well maybe we can fish by late may if the lake warms fast enough. Usually we have to wait till June because the Lake is too cold in May.
I appreciate that Don, thank you. I accept your apology, no hard feelings!
The next wave of low pressure to affect us will bring a mixed bag of precipitation during Thursday afternoon--possibly beginning as mainly rain--but that mixture is likely to turn to all snow by or during Friday morning. Although the NAM is faster with this system than the GFS, both models show a potential for some accumulating snow during Friday before the precipitation tapers off. Colder air will filter into WNY during Friday, and accumulations may be sufficient to cause slushy road surfaces. The snow could be preceded by some sleet and patchy freezing rain Thursday night, so this system will have to be watched carefully. It will carry significant moisture, as opposed to this evening's weaker clipper.
Next week will be interesting in a different way, if the GFS is on to something. Some modest warming will begin by Sunday evening, with showers moving in, then winding down during a seasonable Monday. It's only one model run--the 18z--which shows a much deeper storm pulling in from the west later next week. If we see this trend continue in subsequent runs, that kind of storm would produce a strong downslope breeze which would boost temps well into the 50s ahead of a sharp cooldown by Friday.
As always, seasoned mets never base a forecast on a single model run if it's done a sudden flip-flop, and that's the case with the 216-240 hr time period in the 18z GFS. We'll see how tomorrow's runs look.
00z NAM run slightly slower and warmer for Friday, which would mean more mixture AM, and less snow.
Are we talking enough snow here to bring the plows and shovels back out?
Maybe, but if so, just barely. Boundary layer looks a little too warm during heavier precip for too much snow to accumulate.
Every time I hear about the potential for more snow, I remember why I moved to Phoenix. Then I remember all the times I got on the motorcycle that I forgot was sitting in 115 degree heat all day. Then I remember why I moved back to Buffalo. :)
I wonder if the remaining ice cover on the lake is broken ice that's been pushed our way by the current?
Marshall, your guess is essentially correct. Much of the ice in the SE & E part of Lk Erie was pushed to the SE by a lengthy period of NW winds last week.
Of course, the ice ALWAYS jams up at the eastern end of the Lake (and did so long before there was an ice boom) due to the prevailing winds and the shape of the Lake, feeding into a narrow river.
i can t understand it.........right after labor day the tempersture drops and bam! we're into cooler weather, yet it takes forever for the warm weather to return.........why is this???
Many years we're NOT into cooler weather right after labor day. We've had numerous autumns in which mild weather prevailed much of the time.
The cooler weather in early spring is quite simply explained: proximity to ice, then cold water, with prevailing winds blowing over those cold surfaces. Free refrigeration.
Just did a little more checking on this past Sept/Oct, anonymous. In fact, we had an incredibly mild post Labor Day season, with 80+ degrees recorded as late as October 5th. Both of those months averaged much warmer than normal.
00z NAM now brings more significant surge of moisture further north on Thursday night, with Sleet, Frz Rain & some Snow possibly causing slick driving--this is a real change from earlier runs today, and has to be viewed with some suspicion.
However, I have introduced a better chance of a wintry mix into the Niag Frontier tonight--Lindsay will have more on Wakeup, and my latest fcst is on wivb.com.
Environment Canada has issued a winter storm watch for Niagara (Ontario side)and Windsor. Said we may see up to 15 cm (6")if it comes as all snow. More chance for white stuff, to the W end of Lk Erie. Not betting on their forecast, it's far too general usually and seldom materializes. I'd guess it'll be more watery than snowy in the end. It's currently about 34F here and overcast.
It certainly seems that our autumns are much nicer with winter starting later each year
but spring starts later too and quickly goes to summer
Don..is this observation correct for past 5 years or so
anonymous--no those observations aren't entirely correct. In general, over the last several decades, springs have been starting earlier, not later, and winters have been starting later. Data from the National Climatic Data Center and Cornell's NE Regional Climate Ctr confirm this.
There will, as I already noted a few times, be seemingly delayed starts to spring at the eastern end of the Great Lakes because of our proximity to those cold lakes. But the delays are more imaginary than real--spring nearly always is slow to start where we live, and our individual memories are very selective and subjective.
Seems the model runs have changed again since I didn't hear Lindsay this morning mention freezing rain for northern sections tonite? As I recall she said 1 - 3 inches of snow for the northtowns.
Don:
Have the average highs for January and February been going up over the years?
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