More tranquil week ahead...
It's looking like we're in for a bit of a breather this week after quite a snowy weekend. As of this AM, Lockport and Perrysburg saw the highest storm totals (25.5"). High pressure will move into town tonight, allowing winds to diminish. Tonight's temps will really bottom out due to the light winds, partial clearing and fresh snow pack. Monday a weak disturbance will stay to the south of our viewing area, bringing more clouds into the Southern Tier. Also, a few flurries are not out of the question for NPA. Another weak front will move into the picture late Tuesday and into Wednesday, which will bring the chance for some light wet snow showers. A big warm up is on the way for the end of the week with temps returning to the 40's.
posted by LSchwarzwaelder at
9:59 AM
134 Comments:
Here are some of the latest snowfall totals from each of the counties:
Perrysburg: 25.5
Lockport: 25.5
N. Tonawanda: 22.0
East Aurora: 17.0
Warsaw: 17.0
South Dayton: 14.0
Portageville: 9.3
Here's a few more totals added to the list:
Alden: 18.5
Elma: 14.0
I live in lockport and I and yes there is a ton of snow. I sometimes think the weather people forget about us here in Niagara County, we got totally slammed with the snow yet heard or saw no reporting about Niagara County all weekend on the news and look we got the most snow besides Perrysburg! Just don't forget about us here in Niagara County, it always seems to be about the Buffalo region.
i definitely agree.
although we don't get some of the heavy LES the southern tier gets, we usually get the brunt of any storm, whether we get a lot of ice or mostly snow rather than a mix. we got plastered with snow all afternoon and evening yesterday. the snow was coming dwn so hard for so long last night, i just did not think it would end! we have piles of shoveled snow up to 5 feet tall because there was just that much snow. it was blowing around and still is this morning, but the sun is definitely a welcome sight. reminds me of spring. still, this storm was AWESOME BEYOND BELIEF, it makes snow freaks like me happy. :) 2+ feet - who knew we would get that much in the beginning of march? unbelievable. you guys did such a TREMENDOUS job of predicting this snow and i think it is safe to say that we, along with our canadian and ohio neighbors, were in the heaviest of the wraparound snow. enjoy the snow today while it lasts! :)
Anonymous: We didn't forget about you up in Lockport...in fact all four of us mets here at WeatherWatch 4 were saying how areas north of the metro would probably see the most due to the least mixing and lake enhancement.
There are a few lake effect snow showers in extreme northern Niagara/Orleans counties this AM as well as S. Erie. This may put down an additional 1-3" on top of what already fell.
I live in Lockport. We seem to be the big winner for this storm (25.5")and many this season. I have been paying attention to the latest storm reports the NWS website and I'm pretty sure that areas in Niagara County have received more snow than the southtowns this season. The synoptic storms and the lake enhancement has been nailing us this year.
the only surprise about the storm was the heavy sleet we had during the afternoon here in the north. needless to say, i was a little shocked, but it occured during the afternoon when we were in a slight lull and did not significantly bring down accumulations. lindsay, do you have any idea why we got sleet yesterday afternoon when it was supposed to stay all snow?
Any totals for Amherst area?
And the list continues:
Kenmore: 14.0
Amherst Weather Lover: No recent totals up for Amherst yet. There was a report of 15.2" at 11:45 last night...however that does not include the snow that fell overnight.
Another total that came in at 12:12pm from the NWS:
Colden: 15.3" Great for skiers, snowboarders, sledders and snowmobilers!
BTW: Anon, we certainly didn't forget you up in Lockport. Last night on the 10pm and 11pm broadcast, you were at the top of the snow totals list!
Also, while the start of the week will be rather quiet, if we get enough warming later in the week, along with a couple of disturbances, that may very well prompt the ice jam flood potential.
Any comments on the storm idea the GFS is putting together for next weekend? I know its still 6 days out and the models really haven't had this storm for many runs but looks like it could bring us some hefty precip.
General: Yes, indeed starting next weekend, local weather looks to be turning quite active once again and into the following week. Much too early to pinpoint exact paths or tracks, but there may potentially be another wintry/icy mix or even snow next weekend. I must caution though, storm systems evolve and change especially 6 days out. There's even another, broader system that may bear watching the following week going into Tuesday. It's best to wait for several model runs that are consistent before things look like they're going to gel.
Because they are alarmist and without merit...the blog will now only be about legitimate weather information, not wild prognostications and inneuendo from the likes of you....
Ayuud: Please, STOP! Your bold comments are distracting from the very purpose of this weather blog. The mets of WIVB are the ones who deliver the information and data. Please read Don Paul's post on Blog Behavior. You're welcome to READ our blog, but I repeat, please STOP your comments. Thank you.
MB....awesome job...thanks...
Here in Getzville (North Amherst)... a final storm total of 21.9 inches was recorded.
In my mind, I would just call that 22 inches.
MB...with the NAO going negative later this week, will that serve to prolong our winter?...our is this just a temporary change?....thanks...
This storm has crippled many areas especially in the Niaraga Region
where the Ontario provincial police has resorted to using
Snowmobiles for transportation and 7 foot snowdrifts have been
reported in the area. A storm total of 52cm of snow was recorded in St. Catharines.
Anon: Good question. Fact is, Climate Prediction Center stating that La Nina will still hold its grip on the Northern Hemisphere including our part of the world well into Spring '08. With that in mind, I would expect a continuation of our roller-coaster weather pattern that we've become accustomed to thus far, with significant warm-ups as well as cold shots that may offer a variety of precipitation types for awhile.
Niagara Ontario: Thanks for your report. Southern Ontario certainly received the highest snow totals from this storm. Best of luck digging out...our hearts go out to you.
Ayuud,
Apparently I missed another doozy post from Ayuud. Ayuud, this IS from the "real" Don Paul. Unless you want us to regularly hit the delete button on all your posts, settle down and learn--don't prognosticate for awhile. Because you so frequently overstep your limited level of knowledge and blend it in with a healthy dose of childish wishful thinking you and a few others have become more of an annoyance than anything else.
I KNOW you're capable of better behavior and thinking. Prove me right, okay?
okay don but let me post comments on this wonderful weather blog although this time i will be mature and meet the standards
Drove from Lockport to Lyndonville this morning. It went from sunny and nice to Lake Effect like crazy as we got close to Lake Ontario. Where else can you go to get our kind of crazy weather?
Unfortunately Lockport won the prize last night. Anybody want to help clean off lots of cars?
hey folks!
I hope the Weather Channel got their footage! Its a winter wonderland out there and I wish I had a total for you in S.Cheektowaga but the drifts are too much and I cant get an accurate measurement. I do know that its more snow than ever before this year. General...whats your total?
I just wish the plow man took care of French Rd. a little better through this. It was AWFUL when other roads were clear. I drove through the city, on side streets,on the 90, 190 Union and through Cheek. ....The roads were awesome-except French! great job, plow guys!
On another note, that was the most drama this blog has ever seen! Thanks again to MB and others for keeping it civil.
So is there going to be some nice water rafting this week?
cheers!
provincial police using snowmobiles to get around in parts of Ontario. 7 foot drives as the Niagara poster indicated.
45 cm in Barrie on top of 20 recorded earlier in the week. Hard to believe it was 10 cel/50 farh on Monday. Seems like a distant memory.
Hey MB---we've got snow or rain mix in forecast for Thursday. right now, EC is calling for light rain--thank God. Don't need copious amounts. What's your take on Thursday's system?
Thanks,
Does the NWS have any current products (maps) on season snowfall across the region? I'm interested to compare the pattern of this year with others.
that should have been 7 foot drifts not drives!
While it has stopped snowing elsewhere in WNY, us folks here in S. Erie are still counting flakes as we are currently in the line of a reasonable LES band off of a "frozen" Lake Erie. At times we're experiencing simultaneous sunshine and moderate snow. (I wonder what's in the pot at the end of a "snow-bow"?!) As a newcomer to this region, weather around here never ceases to amaze me.
Barrie 1...I had similar conditions to yours and I live in Lockport. Between the winds and the lake enhancement last night we had 6-7 foot drifts. We started the storm with over a foot on the ground and added 2 feet and then the wind last night.
7 foot snow drifts reported just across the river on into Canada... you should see some of the snow drifts in Sanborn in Niagara County! They are higher than 7 feet! Some of the houses that are in open areas have HUGE drifts on which ever side of the house the wind was blowing against. At least 9-10 feet... at least that!
Is there a way to know when the LES in S. Erie will wind down (e.g. 8pm, 10pm, 12am, 6am)?
Well, looks like the "fun" is over folks.
Looks like temps will be in the lower to mid 40's a good part of the week. Not warm enough for bad flooding, but not cold enough to keep the snow around. No major precip this week. Looks to be a "slow period" in the weather. Things MAY get interesting next weekend into next week...
No major precip. this work week is a good thing. Let's all take a deep breath. Must say, despite all the snow, the warm March sunshine sure feels good.
Thanks to the CH 4 weather team for riding out this major storm with us.
Your analysis from the early stages of the storm to its arrival and its exit was very helpful. Always done with measured response without unnecessary hype.
Large storms are always exciting for weather fans, but we have to remember that the CH 4 weather team isn't going to utter the call for a 'blizzard' just because WE want them too or because it is what WE'RE anticipating.
In the name of public safety and accuracy, WNY'ers are very luck to have such professionals on the job.
Everyone have a good week.
Remember my post in the previous storm thread about the weight of the snow on my low pitched roof? Well, I don't have to worry about the weight, but this morning we woke up to a wet floor in our kitchen. Turns out an ice damn has built up above our bay window in our kitchen. That warm-up later this week can't come soon enough. As everyone has been saying...welcome to home ownership. :)
Lake snow across So. Erie and Wyoming counties is gradually disappearing this evening. If you're wondering why lake snow has been coming in off of a frozen Lake Erie, well, some of the ice is so shallow that the heat underneath is rising up through it and condensing into lake clouds and light snow. Meantime, it's a cold night ahead for all of us with winds gradually diminishing.
Thanks a bunch for the reports of your 7 foot snowdrifts..certainly believable with strong wind gusts yesterday which were far, far below blizzard criteria. BTW, that term should not be used loosely, since it has so much to do with dangerous and life-threatening conditions. Instead, the long duration of this winter storm made it very manageable, and our snowplow crews here in WNY are the best in all of the country. They deserve a lot of credit. Kudos go out to them.
What a bummer, Paul. Hope everything works out for you.
LOCKPORT IS SO BAD THE SNOW IS SOOO HIGH.GETTING SUCK IN DEEP SNOW WAS BAD.
Any snow totals for the southerntier coming in? Salamanca, Ellicottville,Cuba
This is in response to Paul and his ice dam problems. I have isolated ice dam problems under my two skylights. What I did this year is keep a 10' x 10' area around the skylights clear of snow with a roof (snow) rake. With little snow to melt around them, there is no melt water to freeze up at the eaves. Of course this winter had quite a few interspersed warm spells which I am sure helped keep the ice down also. If you can reach your trouble areas, it may be worth it. If you get melting over your entire roof, that is another story.
Sorry this isn't weather related, but I thought it could help him out a little.
I will say the Ch 4 team called the storm pretty close to perfect. I wonder what type of explanation the accuweather folks would have for putting us under the bl.... area, saying that the local weather forecasters were minimizing the storm, etc.... I guess they are scientists also, who are allowed to make mistakes.
overall i think this storm wasn t bad or out of the ordinary. It was nice to get those breaks ( of course i m speaking from the town of tonawanda), many areas i m sure get nailed but the forcasting was pretty darn good and hats off to the news 4 weather staff and to all the highway crews!!!!!!!!! GREAT JOB BY ALL!!!
zachary
well here is my unoffical tally for the weekend storm plus the ice storm...... one broken snowblower, one broken snow pup and my shovel never had a chance!!!!!!!LOLOL...great job to DON, MARYBETH,MIKE AND lINDA..........
Hey Paul,
One thing I saw that looked like it might help remove an ice dam is to fill the leg of an old nylon stocking with calcium chloride ice melter, and then put it up on top of the ice dam. Its supposed to melt the dam and allow the water to run off. Cal Chlor is suggested because it is won't harm the roof or gutters. The problem is finding calcium chloride. All the stores have switched to gas grills, lawn mowers, and landscaping supplies. They think its spring! When will mother nature get the message?
Mark
OP
To Springville Rob and Mark,
I didn't think about ice melt, that's a great idea.
I've been chipping the ice off the roof a few times a day, it's just a little roof over a bay window. Right now I have a plastic tarp layed over it.
If interested, you can see my post on the problem here...http://www.dslreports.com/forum/r20137251-Ice-Damn-Help
They also have heating elements that you can attach to your roof jsut above where the roof meets the gutter, or that you can place in your gutter. They plug into an outside outlet, and prevent ice from forming on the eaves or in the gutters.
looks like the blog will be tranquil too after Don's warning.!!!!!!!!
so Don i recall you saying that winter isn t done with us yet, we all know March is unpredictable but do you see strange things ahead in the form of more severe weather????? thanks
paul
Saturday system will be working with marginal temperatures again. The 12zGFS takes the center further south than last Saturday's system and there's some chance we'll get very little out of this one.
As of this afternoon, there's a ton o' uncertainty on this next one.
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ok i live in a cave but without this blog i had no idea that a weather center (sorry don t recall the official name) was being proposed for the water front. from what i ve read it sounds like a great idea,much better than a Bass Pro Shop. Good Luck Don and your fellow organizers on this adventure i hope it does come to fruitation. John c ( getzville)
Lots of snow means one beautiful snow sculpture. Anyone in the Amherst/ Tonawanda area should check out the snow sculpture in front of Claudette's on NFB north of Ellicott creek. It looks to be a goalie - a life size Ryan Miller and is pretty cool! Check it out before it melts!
I don't know if this is to off topic, but here in North Buffalo, the side roads are awful because they were not plowed all weekend. I saw my first plow at 10 am this morning, and that didn't help because the snow is now so packed in places it doesn't help. Many people are getting stuck and I wish I knew who to call to complain. I know a lot of my elderly neighbor's are not able to get out of there house at all without help from us younger twenty/thirty somethings getting there sidewalks and driveways cleared. So any suggestions, and how is the weather going to be for the rest of the week?
man, I really had high hopes for this region with Elliott as our governor. Now we lose out!
I suppose everyone is disillusioned with the scandal which has erupted for the Governor.
However, that's not germaine to a discussion of weather or related subjects, so let's please avoid political comments on this blog. We have other blogs at wivb.com for political matters.
yeah but it affects all of us, everywhere in this state...even in the wx office.
and its sad and senseless and we all need to learn.
Don
Since I Came To This Blog I Have Learned A Lot From Basic Weather Elements To Pro Elements And I Give Big Thanks To You ,MB,Lindsay,But What I Dont Get Is Why You Dont Let Me Post Comment Since That Incident From This Weekend Snow Post And I Told You That I Will Act As A Responsible Person And I Wont Forecast Any Weather Events In This Blog.....Can You Give Me A Last Chance? If I Fail,I Promise You That I Wont Post A Comment Again.
Ayuud,
Just take a break for a few days. Then we'll see if you've gained a little more self control.
A little quiet time is in order.
Does the NWS have any current products (maps) on season snowfall across the region? I'm interested to compare the pattern of this year with others. I live in Niagara County and according to my calculations we have had more snow than the Airport and the southtowns this year. This seems highly unusual and a rare season of synoptic storms.
jeremy,
The National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) does not appear to have such a map. The NWS Buffalo Snow Spotters Map is complete only through January. At that point, there were several snow spotters who had higher totals than any in Niagara County (i.e., outside of Warsaw). But I couldn't find anything more current. There were a fair number of lake snows over the higher terrain below the Buffalo Stowns until recently, so I'm not sure who's in the lead right now.
Don--
Which is tougher?
Forecasting some of those "hard to predict" winter storms we've all been glued to this winter... or keeping the weather "interesting" in slow times like this?
It looks as though not much at all going on in the weathe department. Next Saturday's storm system does not look too promising for our area... and thats all that we would be watching right now.
chris,
The stress of forecasting storms with shallow arctic air has proven to be far greater than the stress of keeping things interesting--at least this winter!
By the way, Buffalo is now up to 98.7 inches for the season, which is above normal for an entire cold weather season regardless of whether or not we get any more snow.
Even though Toronto got quite a couple of shots recently, Buffalo has taken a solid lead. It's VERY rare for Toronto to be ahead, but many of the shallow subfreezing events for Buffalo with mixed precip were all snow in Toronto.
And, Toronto, according to The Star, is on pace to match or pass their alltime record winter snowfall.
perhaps on the slow wx days we can discuss the upcoming spring and the weather trends that could dictate a volitle and stormy season. Perhaps a tutorial of sorts on LaNina, this particular one and what to expect after she's gone. I can imagine she's ruling the weather for us for some time to come still and we will all be cursing her even more...
I think it will help us all understand this uncertainty that comes along with weather predicting, too.
just a suggestion...
I wasn't worried about keeping things interesting on this blog; we'll find things to talk about.
It's keeping it interesting for the general public on the air which can be more challenging. (And that's my job; this blog is strictly secondary and optional.) We usually succeed. But every once in a while, the brain comes up lame.
interesting week ahead
already a little of the snow and ice is beginning to melt, and when it all does, that will be a lot of water laying around
GFS does show a possible storm 6 days in advance but it does not appear quite as potent and may move a bit further to the south.
i find it amazing how you can get insight on storms that can happen a week or more in advance. technology is awesome. channel 4 ALWAYS does good with long range storms, so i will keep it tuned to you guys to see what's gonna happen next :) i really do not like or want to watch anyone else
Well, as of the 18z run of the GFS, as well as the GEM & European models, this Saturday system looks to be going by too far to the south to have a significant impact on WNY. In addition, the wave to the south doesn't show signs of phasing with the wave in the nrn branch until after its well past us, which means storm development will be slower this time around.
Those are the trends as of tonight.
By the way,FANTASTIC job on the predicting of this storm, Don. You,MB,MIke,and Lindsay showed why you are the best!
Thank you, eeed.
did anyone hapen to catch the sunset last night? Ok i admit i m a sunset watcher but i never seen the sun so big and round and illuminted a redish orange, nothing else in the sky was lit just the sun. simply amazing.
I would still like to learn a bit about the global weather patterns that shape our local weather. I'm not sure about anyone else but this La Nina is especially strong and stubborn and I would be interested in getting a better grasp as to what it means weatherwise for our spring and summer. I am also interested in why and how they form, that is La Ninas and El ninos.
I am also interested in tapping my maple trees and the perfect weather is supposed to be key in collecting sap. The temps are supposed to be in the 40s during the day and freezing at night...Do you know when we'll get this? Should I tap them this week?
I'm a first time maple tapper, so anyone with information, please pipe in!!!
Thanks
Don:
It seems that for the months of February and now March, weather systems have been developing in the southwest with Gulf of Mexico moisture and then traveling up through the Ohio Valley to us. To me (as an amateur for sure), this seems like an unual path for our weather to come from. I remember us having either more of a West to East straight zonal flow or weather coming from Canada across the Lakes.
Is this pattern somewhat unusual for this time of year and do you see any kind of a pattern change any time soon? If not, I would suspect we are going to be getting a lot of rain in the spring once temperatures warm some.
Hi Don,
I was looking for an echo top chart for the Buffalo radar; is there one available from your website?
and speaking of excitement; doesn't this remind you of your favorite movie,
"Client 9 from New York State??"
The weather has died down so much! Nothing on the way to look forward to : (
I know storms are stressful for you Don, but on the other hand, they are so exciting!
I hope this storm for Saturday changes and decides to head our way... slow times I guess.
Don any signs of true spring????Rite now im sick and i love winter but now im sick of it for now and god i hope we get rain and hopefully spring will be here.-Adam from Hamburg
The slow melt is perfect...I got no weather complaints. Too warm and rain right now would reek havok!
Springs coming! hang in there!
Hey sabresfan, I just heard some scuttlebutt within the past couple days that some farms are starting to tap their trees. I am by no means an expert on maple production, but even with temps in the mid to upper 30's during the days, the sap will probably still flow. I would think the angle of the sun helps in waking the trees up as the actual tree itself would warm from the sun's heat (dark bark absorbing the heat), not just from the surrounding air temp.
Hi Don, I have a quick question. I grew up in Holland, NY and I was wondering if the school district ever inquired about setting up a weathernet site at the school. Being in the Cazenovia Creek valley, the temperatures occasionally do some interesting things in contrast to the rest of the area. It would make for some neat observations.
Thanks.
To my knowledge, the school system has never inquired about getting a Neighborhood WeatherNet site.
Don...I know you hate to look this far ahead, but I noticed a couple of things I wanted your thoughts on...first, their looks to be a somewhat significant wind event for next Tuesday....could these be strong to high winds?....also, later next week seems to turn cold again and snowy...any credence to this?....again, I know it's only guesswork, but I'd appreciate any comments...
Springvillerob- You are correct, sap is starting to flow. My daughter has horrendous outdoor allergies and we started her back on Nasonex and Zyrtec last week because we can expect the pollen counts to go up any time now. We're under orders from her allergist to start the meds no later than March 15th each year, no matter the weather. ;)
Thanks Sp'villerob and Lew'mom.
I think I'm going to tap them this week then.
storm watcher
storm watcher,
You're right about one thing. It's too early to speculate on next Tuesday.
After recently taking a bumpy flight to Boulder, I decided to read up on air turbulence, and learned that it's the pilots responsibility to interpret the weather radar and decide if they should change course or not.
What type of meteorological training do pilots have? Do meteorologists like yourself ever provide input to the airlines/port/control tower?
Don: The Weatherbug as of 3:30 today was showing temps in the 40's most days through next Tuesday with no sign of a major weather event. Or are they way off base.
howieh,
Echo tops can be found on the NEXRAD displays at www.wunderground.com, run out of the University of Michigan.
Paul,
Airline pilots receive a fair amount of meteorological training and the good ones go the extra mile in learning more than the minimum.
CAT, or clear air turbulence, generally will not be detectable in cockpit radars, and pilots depend on other pilot reports plus FAA and NWS Aviation Center forecasts for most turbulence information. The NWS is in frequent contact with the control tower at airports such as Buffalo, where the WFO is located. At other larger airports, there are FAA Terminal Doppler radars and meteorlogists to advice the tower and Air Traffic Control centers fo conditions. When Doppler detects significant wind shear at lower levels on approach and takeoff flight paths, that info is generally forwarded to the tower, to be passed on the pilots in the air on approach or to those on the ground awaiting takeoff instructions.
Sabrefan-
Check out this link: http://www.mapleweekend.com/
These folks would probably be able to tell your when you can expect the trees in your particular area to start sapping.
it's all the woodchucks fault ...
should have closed his eyes when he came out of the hole.
Thanks Don, should have checked first because I found it immediately after posting my request...and I also found the echo tops from all the Canadian radars (real time at 10 minute intervals) on the Nav Canada site.
How embarrassing! I programmed the stuff and only recently discovered it
is available to the general public!
Wow, so here I am back now from north carolina after seeing my brother come home from Iraq, I can't believe I missed the biggest snoptic snow of the year. I saw TWC reporting from the Erie Basin Marina on which they claimed was lake erie. I read the paper and saw Buffalo snow at 98.7 inches. We really closed the gap in the snow derby. We are just 2 inches short of Rochester. O well the ocean was nice to see and so was the greenery but i like the snow so I'm happy to be back.
It's still looking like a storm going by to our south on Saturday will not be phasing with the nrn branch of the jetstream, meaning not much is likely out of it for us--unless future model runs begin to nudge it further north.
Hi Don.I know that someone suggested a blizzard room for the BWEC,where you actually feel what a blizzard is like. I was wondering if you will be able to garner any "As it happened" footage of the blizzard of 77 to be included in the BWEC. Thanks!
Footage shouldn't be a problem.
I had a thought...why not ask Buffalonians with pictures from the 77' Blizzard to scan them and send them into the BWEC for a community collection type of photo journalism. I'm sure hundreds of great photos will start to pour in and you will have one of the most comprehensive community photo collections for that exhibit. People would go just to see their pictures immortalized in Buffalo history, they would take their out of town friends and grandchildren to see them.
Just an idea. Hope it helps.
Great idea,sabresfan. Some of the pictures are absolutely incredible.
Hi Don,
I loved the picture of the moon last night at 11. You should consider showing more video/picture at the start of your segment. It was a nice touch.
Keep up the great work
LockportJim
sleepy blog...kind of miss those teenage rantings...at least then ther was something to read...