Stickin' the Ol' Neck Out--Major Revision
Based on morning model runs, the likelihood of significant snow overspreading WNY has increased. In fact, more than 8" of slushy, water-laden snow may accumulate overnight in parts of the srn tier, and as much as 4" will be possible near Buffalo, with lesser amounts to the north toward Lk Ontario.
The 12z NAM is going gung-ho on this ripple of low pressure which will pass to our south, and would even bring heavy snow to the metro area, so the 18z run will be critical. The more consistent but lower resolution GFS confines the hvy snow to the srn tier. But as of noon today, I have to raise a red flag on this one for the srn tier, and maybe an orange one-of-sorts for the Buffalo Stowns and the City. More on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.
The 12z NAM is going gung-ho on this ripple of low pressure which will pass to our south, and would even bring heavy snow to the metro area, so the 18z run will be critical. The more consistent but lower resolution GFS confines the hvy snow to the srn tier. But as of noon today, I have to raise a red flag on this one for the srn tier, and maybe an orange one-of-sorts for the Buffalo Stowns and the City. More on News 4 at 5, 5:30 & 6.
posted by Don Paul at
12:05 PM
38 Comments:
by gosh, I hope this is the last one coming this season!
Thanks for the gutsy update Don...I agree with you to put a red/orange flag out there. Conveying uncertainty is important, but it is also better prepares us for ALL of the possibilities. Is the NAM reacting to gulf moisture or PNA indicies? Seems like it thinks this thing is going to blow up a bit.
What sort of scenerio will we see after this passes? Will there be rain or cold air behind the system and will that bring LES or flooding?
Thanks!
I didn't have time to touch base with Lindsay, but I caught her noon cast after I updated Ch 4 Weatherline, and she arrived at a similar red flag conclusion.
The PNA has little to do with this scenario. It's the NAM's placement of the moisture which has shifted further north today which is the key element---where the maximum lift will occur.
LES will not follow this storm system in any signficant way. Can't speculate on flooding until we see how much snow actually falls.
ok Don The Last Thread I Said That The Nam Is Placing All Wny Under The Heavy Snow Area And What Intersting Is That The Models Espessially The Nam Has Shifted 25 Miles North And I Think The Nam is agressive with the qpf based on the nws afd ..Im Currently Waiting for the 12z gfs sounding for bufkit to see if it shows any significant snow to our area
Here Is What Both Models Suggest In Terms Of Snow Accumalation..
Nam:11
Gfs:7
And Don Please Correct me If I Misread The Data
One More Last Question ..
Will The Strong Sun Angle Play A Major Role In This Storm
The strong sun angle is helping to heat the surface quite well today, even through the cloud cover.
But evaporational cooling and what's called "cooling of the column" (the vertical column of air) will tend to compensate for the daytime warming, as the bulk of the precip will fall after dark and before sunrise.
Ayuud, we don't just "plug in" numbers from model outputs for accumulations. That's not the way it's done. You have to take into account how much warming of the surface is occurring, for example. You have to understand and look at low and mid level jet dynamics. The list could go on and on.
Although I generally respect the NWS forecasters and their skill in forecasting, especially LES, the lack of input by the BUF office has been simply unacceptable.
Winter has to get its last say...!
anonymous:
This isn't a life-or-death svr wx situation; it won't impact the evening commute. The NWS is going to issue its afternoon discussion and zones on schedule, and they'll likely go to a WW Advisory or Hvy Snow Warning for much of the area (I'm guessing). I haven't been in touch with them, but in my view if they want to take a little time to ponder a tough call, that's fine.
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Ughhhh. NWS just issued a WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY for Northern/Southern Erie. Calling for 4-6 inches of snow.
sigh..oh well..I guess I can take this opportunity to burn the rest of the gas out of my snow blower.
Snowblower??? Luckily, my driveway is short enough to get out of with moderate snow depths. So any snow we get, I am just going to let it melt!!!!
Don..
Will We Know Your Storm Projected Snowfall Totals At 5pm News
Great AFD From The Buffalo Nws Office
"INDICATIONS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SURFACE FRONT IN PA
AND LIFT MAXIMIZED OVER WESTERN NY LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS POINT TOWARD PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE THRUWAY FROM BUF TO ROC. HAVE THE HEAVIER ACCUMS IN
THIS AREA ALTHOUGH SOME SETTLING OF THE HIGH MOISTURE SNOW MAY MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO REACH THE UPPER END OF THE 5-8 IN RANGE. THUNDER
ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT HAVE LEFT IT OUT AS THERE ARE ENOUGH
WEATHER ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN"
And Btw Don I See Them Mentioning Thunder ..Do You Think That Is Possible
Yikes Don. You folks can have another wintry blast. Kudos on the call Lindsay and Don. Ahead of the game as usual.
Environment Canada has dropped heavy snowfall warning for Windsor-Chatham area and Winter Storm Watch for Niagara/London region But still--EC calling for 4 inches of heavy wet snow for all of the above. They say storm is moving faster than expected and wet snow is likely before temps. cool. Original call was 15 cm. EC says heavist snowbursts regions bordering L. Erie from Windsor to Niagara.
Just clouds for us.
Giant flakes in hamburg.Its starting to stick.Adam from Hamburg
Don - The report says 3-5" inland...is buffalo/metro considered inland? What exactly are we expecting here in the Buffalo area? I am in the Niagara County area, but my husband plows in Amherst.
My forecast is for 3-7" across the Niag Frontier, including Buffalo. The uncertainties concern how much melting will occur early in the storm's passage, and how much compression of the snowpack will develop due to its waterladen quality and any sleet which mixes in. Locally higher amounts than the 3-7" are possible in some pockets. I'll be updating again for CW 23 News at 10 and, if you're up, after the NCAA games on News 4.
NO snowspotter reports from anyone tonight, except for a late afternoon email from Perrysburg.
...Sure would appreciate any accumulation reports, however minor.
Thanks!
Took the accumulations down a little to 2-4" on CW 23 at 10--just too much melting going on, though there could be a few pockets of locally higher amounts.
Waiting on the 00z NAM to finish up for additional tweaking, if necessary.
Ahh,Spring... Trees budding, flowers blooming,kids on bikes, the crack of a baseball bat. Wait a minute,this is WNY.Ahh,Spring, parkas,boots,hats,shovels, scapers. This is ridiculous!
Not much in Lancaster,Don.Maybe a half inch on the grass. The roads are just wet.
I'm on the southern Orchard Park/North Boston border. Its been varying from rain to sleet to all snow for a few hours. As for accumulation, what we would call a dusting in normal weather, tonight I would call a "glaze". Not even a measurable inch on pavement, maybe an inch on the grass.
Thanks for the reports, folks.
Yawn. March Malaise, not Madness, waiting for NCAA to finish up.
I just drove the I90 from Amherst to Hamburg...a lot of big flakes in the air, but it just doesn't seem to be sticking...everything seems coated now, but that's about it.
It's midnight and still 8 minutes to go, Don. By the time the teams are done calling timeouts, you'll be lucky to be on the air before 12:30. :-)
slushy accumulations on the roads in S Cheektowaga. Theres between 1-2" on the grass. There is a heavy coating on the trees and power lines.
Our house outside of Springville got about 4". It is good snow blower plugging snow!!!ll
Couple of inches up here in Middleport, but nothing on the roads. Real nice looking as it stuck to branches, etc. Hopefully this was winters last Hurrah. Bring on spring!!
Snows getting heavier here in Chktwg. but not too bad...I see the bands coming through on the radar. It almost looks lake enhanced from Huron/Superior/Michigan the way it formed.
Sure is pretty on the trees...
Whatta game last night, eh Buffalo?! It doesnt get better than that! Sabres should start a line of special NHL defibulators with the Sabres logo to sell at the games. I think my heart stopped like 4 or 5 times during that game!
Oh yes, winter is back. We have a heavy cover of wet snow down here.
Post mortum: The storm did not produce enough of a heavy rate of snowfall to overcome the heating of surfaces which had occurred during the day. That, along with temperatures close to or a little above freezing at the surface, led to lots of melting in urbanized areas.
The snow ended up being nearly entirely elevation driven, as reflected by WNY snow spotter totals available at the NWS website.
2.75 inches in northern Orchard Park
-Matt from OP
I hear ya , Don and I am elevated. Looks like a Christmas card here. The snow is really heavy in the trees. It's murder to shovel this wet stuff. -Lambs due anyday here so I slog to the barn allot. I could use a break any time now in the weather if you have any direct line to the heavens let em know. Looks like March is in like a Lion and out like a lion eh?
Yep, I figured there was too much melting going on last night. It took forever for the snow to start sticking on my driveway. By this morning, we only had 1" in Depew.
Just enough to liven the discussion!
ready to speculate on the flooding issue yet? Mainly I'm looking at this line of lows that looks to be marching through the South; are we going to see precip with these as well or will they stay South?
Don,
How much of a soaker on Monday?
Obviously I ask about WNY but wondering if it will extend into South-Cen Ont. Forecast for us said RAIN Monday, but now the extended says SHOWERS. Don't know why the change--it is both wet to me-- unless showers suggest more rainfree periods.
Doesn't look like a total soaker. My guess is Environment Canada is expecting Monday's precip to be cellular, rather than widespread rain induced by uniform lift. I'd go along with that for our lat/lon here, but it may be a little more widespread as far north as you are, barrie1.
We'll lose some of our snowpack on Sunday through both sublimation and melting. I don't see an imminent flood threat right now. Of possibly greater concern is the potential for strong to high winds on Tuesday, and tstorms/convection associated with a sharp cold front as a deep storm goes by to our north.
Having given some more thought to the 2 rounds of rain we're going to have (late Sun night-Mon, and late Mon night-Tue AM), I have to say we'll have to keep an eye out for hydrological problems as a possibility, in addition to the Strong Wind potential and convection for Tuesday.
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