Still ANOTHER Storm to Watch-Yikes!
Frankly, I admit to storm fatigue--BUT, another system of note will be on the way Friday. A low pulling out of the SE will move parallel to the Appalachians, with differing storm paths from different models. Snow will likely develop by or during Friday afternoon, and may become steadier later in the day. Arctic air will once again be shallow at best on Friday into Friday night, so there is the possibility of snow going over, once again, to a mixture. Conditions favor colder air wrapping behind the deepening storm on Saturday changing any possible mix back to snow, with falling temperatures. As nearly always, the band of heavy snow on the NW side of the storm will be fairly narrow, so it could be nudged east or west easily in future projected storm tracks.
So, yes, there is some potential for significant snow with this system, but there is also considerable Dud potential as well.
So, yes, there is some potential for significant snow with this system, but there is also considerable Dud potential as well.
posted by Don Paul at
12:41 PM
228 Comments:
I am sure ready for spring !! This stuff is getting old very fast.
I'm calling it right now...DUD!!
i vote for dud also........so Don don t bother wracking your brains trying to figure it out. Time to concede defeat to MOTHER NATURE....
I'm waiting on Ayuud's brillant forecast before I make any assessents.
i m sure AYUUD will predict 8 ft of snow, 60mph winds, with sleet/rain thrown in for good measure. Then it will turn unseasonably warm and there will be flash flooding everywhere!!!!!!!
hahaahaha...Very Funny Anomynous
Soprano3695>>>
Im Waiting For The 12Z Euro Model Run And See The Track of the storm
Note:The 0Z Euro Model Showed A Blizzard For Wny and Ontario
Ayuud........ go to college get your degree in meteorology then you can make some intelligent predicting. You obviously have no clue what you are doing, evry guess of yours has been doom and gloom.......sheesh....
ha ha... already he (ayuud) has a blizzard!
I like the Dud potential factor...
I did see the models and mentioned them before, It looks like we're in the crosshairs and we hope it misses us???
Was it the High pressure that kept the last two storms south, and will there be any of that building east or west of the storm's path?
What about the temperatures, some of those models looked like it might be "vortexing" outside again (in reference to the polar vortex term used previously)Will it get really cold and how dramatic will teh temp differentials be on the warm side vs. cold side...how close will they be?
so many questions....
Thanks again!
Here Is The Euro Model Low Track
ATL, CHO, MDT, GFL
what are qpf amounts like?
Looks like about .75-1.25" from CLE-SYR by adding up the 12 hourlies
ayuud,
I know you're a well-mannered, enthusiastic young man with some potential for the future.
But you continue, all too often, to write with a certainty which is quite premature.
Learn to think a little more conservatively until you begin your formal education. When that happens, you'll learn soon enough that enthusiasm and personal preference for big storms hasn't got the SLIGHTEST relationship to what actually happens in the atmosphere.
aw, not even a raindance, Don????
Okay--MAYBE a raindance, but only when the late Gene Kelly or Chief Hakawi of "F Troop" did one!
o ye of little faith
let's not get too down about this next storm. did the one yesterday prove to be a dud? not at all, although i was expecting no power. getting to school was TREACHEROUS this morning with very heavy snow and snow-covered roads. all in all, a real good winter storm. i only ask for one more REAL BIG one and then i will call it quits until next year. i want summer to come and then, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BABY!!! AND EXTREME HEAT!!! :) can't wait!
hey u guys (excluding don) don't be too harsh on ayuud he shows a lot of potential to be a meteorologist. btw, what grade are you in?
Correction on my last post: That's Chief Wild Eagle of the Hakawi indian tribe on F Troop. Their motto: "Hakawi's not fighters...we LOVERS!"
Ok Don i'm very curious about something(s). You work 3-midnight? or your hours vary? i ve noticed you answer some comments at all hours of the day. Also does the forcasting ultimately rest on your shoulders or do you receive help decoding the data from mike, MB, and linda? or do each of you do your own forcasting for example like on the weekends? thanks
Tom D.
This post has been removed by the author.
What happened to the freezing rain in the southern tier? I live in Belmont, and while it was raining Tuesday night at 8 pm, it had turned to sleet by 10. Did the cold air unexpectedly deepen?
I had my generator all set to go, but it turned out to be unneeded!
20 cm/8 inches of snow from the Barrie-area, which probably doesn't mean much to the good folks in WNY, but this weather blog is just too good to pass up.
Don and other bloggers----the snow clearing of the driveway is done and it is truly a sign of spring when you see how quickly the 'warm' March sunshine(even with temps below freezing) is quick to melt what I didn't clear from the drive and walkway.
I also throw up a white flag to the next storm.
We got about 3 inches of snow with some freezing rain/ice pellets in Toronto.
I'll be sure glad when this is over...where is this alleged thing called "global warming" anyway?
Hey wxfan..
Is Toronto not closing in on a record amount of snow for a winter season?
I know Toronto has had quite a bit more snow than Buffalo.
I'll make one prediction that is sure to come true....there won't be half as much activity on this blog for the upcoming storm because most people that post on here are school kids who want a day off of school...since the storm won't impact us until Friday night into Saturday, they won't care....those are the people who come on here and complain when the weather isn't as bad as they wanted, because they missed out on a day off from school....I will go along with the crowd that is predicting another DUD!!
To date, Toronto's had about 65 inches. Normal is 43 (110 centimeters).
Detroit and Chicago are also well above normal.
East coast cities like New York are well below normal - I don't know how they've escaped there when we've suffered in the Great Lakes area :)
What else but weather - at last there is one person who had school today just like me, I was beginning to think ours was the only school open. Of course, we've only had one snow day this year to date.
I'm going with the dud vote btw as well.
barrie1,
If 65 inches is accurate for Toronto, who WAS ahead of Buffalo briefly, then Buffalo has pulled well ahead again. We're at 77.1", just 6.1" below normal.
Don--
Channel 2 seems to be VERY sure of this next storm, and it being all snow. Andy P says it looks like it could be our biggest snowfall of the winter. WGRZ is jumping ahead, and really playing this next storm up!... You should have seen one of his weather casts tonight, Im sure you would beg to differ with Andy. Channel 7 also looks to be reporting a "potential whopper" for Fri-Sat, Mike is already saying we could easly get a foot out of this one. I dont think he should have said that this far out!
If this storm were to stay all snow, do you think it could be in the foot range?
Just thought that I would add the fact that you were the only one out of the all the stations (2&7) to not really talk all that much about the next storm... we need a break!
If the precip were all snow, it could be in that range. But that's not the way things have been going this winter, and our Super Microcast already shows a mix moving into the srn tier later Friday night.
I won't commit to all snow at this point because the confidence level in the data simply isn't there. Andy is a competent met--we just wouldn't agree at this point. Maybe tomorrow we would, but not now.
NEXT STORM SYSTEM STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY BUT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD 4-8 INCH SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA WITH CHANCE OF EVEN MORE. WILL GET MORE SPECIFIC AS
WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SAT NT FOR SOME
CLEARING.-- End Changed Discussion --
Don,
Thanks for the update on Buffalo snow total.
Starting on Friday, school kids in Ontario are off for a week---March break.
Many families fly out to Florida and other warm destinations for a winter holiday, and many fly out of Buffalo.
I know of several friends who hope to leave from Buffalo to Florida on Friday and Saturday, and they'll be watching weather developments very closely. As will those who hope to leave via Toronto's Pearson Airport.
As well, many folks drive via WNY to reach Myrtle Beach, SC(we used too when I was in school). The last thing anybody wants to encounter is a snowstorm.
hmmmm...
I'll take a foot.
My final vote is NO DUD!
Although I am STILL waiting on Ayuud's forcast.
Tom D;
Each of the 4 of us are responsible for preparing our own forecasts. We occasionally consult with one another, and we do make an effort to have some limited continuity in forecasts between shifts.
In my own case, I do a great deal of my work at home before I come in, downloading all the gov't models, usually late AM into early afternoon, with a sandwich break. Super Microcast & Future Watch models are not accessible at home, though I sometimes check in on News 4 at Noon to see what the previous model run shows on Mike's noon cast.
What are WNY weather sources saying about Fri-Sat's expected storm?
- WGRZ(2) calling for all snow: say's this expected storm on Fri “could be the biggest snowfall of the winter thus far.”
- WIVB(4) Somewhat uncertain: Could fall in the form of yet another mix, however, if it were to fall as all snow, it would be a significant snow storm.
- WKBW(7) a "potential whopper" that could drop a foot of snow all over WNY Fri thru Sat. Looks to be "a big one."
- The Weather Channel: Snow on Friday... snow showers on Saturday (that will likely change to just snow as the week goes on) "This will be a major storm for the whole northeast and great lakes area!"
- NWS: says "its an early call but 4-8 inches, or even more than that can easily be expected with this next storm system." "Looks to be a significant storm for all of WNY."
Well,this just ruined my night.A foot of snow and windy, when/will they issue a blizzard warning? I just can't get stranded at work Friday night.
Quote from above:
"WKBW(7) a "potential whopper" that could drop a foot of snow all over WNY Fri thru Sat. Looks to be "a big one."
Don there stealing your lines.. =]\
I think Team WIVB willenjoy at least one or 2 calm nights , then back to businesss.
Thank you for all great info Blogers and TeamWivb
The "sources" post is misleading, as far as the NWS post.
What the poster omitted is the NWS' concern over p-type, and the range mentioned in the Area Fcast Discussion is 3-6" with a "slight chance" for more. That's what I call "cherry-picking" of the info.
Frankly, I'd rather have my forecast end up--through our independent work--being closer to that of the NWS. We haven't communicated today, yet we came up with very similar forecasts.
Uncertainty is called for at this stage due to divergent projected storm paths. Anyone who doesn't express some uncertainty at this point simply isn't doing his or her job properly, in my opinion.
Each year at the American Meteorological Society conference I attend (and it's my good fortune to be the only area bcast met who attends this continuing education conference, thanks to WIVB's generosity-boy, THERE'S a kissup!), some of the nation's leading meteorologists from academia and the NWS lecture on the need to express more uncertainty where necessary. This is one of those situations.
When the situation clarifies, I will make a more clearcut forecast, as will Mike.
Hi Don,
I just happened to be looking outside last night during a burst of really heavy snow when lightning occurred. I immediately checked the (King) radar and there was a very narrow line of intense echoes that had just moved thru Toronto. Guess I'm dating myself but are the terms occlusions and trowals (Canadian-eh?) still used??
Btw, I was really upset when I found out I didn't qualify for your T-shirt contest! How about the following on a Toronto T-shirt:
It's Toronto!
It snows here too!
Would you rather be
raking the Leafs?
Don, tell your staff they may as well leave the "storm links" area up on the WIVB home page...
Jim Cantore specificaly called out Buffalo on The Weather Channel with reguards of seeing up to a foot of snow by sat afternoon... along with Erie Pa, and Rochester.
Yes, IF it stays all snow, and IF the heaviest axis of snow to the NW of the 700mb low center focuses on our area, a foot isn't out of the question. But that axis is quite narrow in scale, and can easily be displaced to the west or east in future model runs.
I have the highest respect for Jim, whom I know a bit, but I'm still going to wait on future runs.
We've been through this nonsense at least 5-7 times this winter, and some people on this blog just can't seem to grasp the concept of uncertainty. NOT communicating uncertainty where it exists is BAD science and a disservice to the public. (This subject isn't even open to debate in the scientific community.) I will update later this evening on what I'm seeing in the latest model runs.
Funny stuff, howard....
This coming winter storm... will it be as hard to predict as the last storm? Why or why not?
Don, is there any chance you could have Ellen Maxwell present the weather forecasts instead of you? I certainly want your data and your forecast, but she's much better to look at!
WOW! ...I agree, but lets stick with Don, and the weather! lol!
Don--
Im sure you know this, but as I re-call, MB gave us the first "heads up" on this Fri-Sat storm last Saturday! That's awesome! It looks as though this storm will end up being something, and MB gave us the first word of it almost a week ago! WIVB, once again and always will be the best for keeping us ahead of the storms!!
Don, you want to know what the worst thing will be about this next storm coming mainly over the weekend?... you wont be on the blog on Saturday to help us through it :' ( Im sure MB will be though! and thats cool!
chris,
That's right. MB mentioned it on Sunday.
Then, in Monday's guidance it appeared to be much more of a minor system, but made a "comeback" in yesterday's model runs.
Exactly...models could flip another couple of times between now and Friday, too....I'm still going dud until I see different...also, props to you Don for using the "dud" term on the blog and on one of the weather casts...if it's a dud, let's call it that....I'm telling everyone, a "whopper" (hey Don, sue Randall for copywright infringement!!) ain't happening this year...
Ellen Maxwell?? I've got a better idea! Don could lip-sync while MB sings the forecast, the best of all worlds! Btw, please don't pick on Don, my wife thinks he's adorable!
who is ellen maxwell?
Is she with Regis?
Ok, well let me just say this. If this storm ends up being a "dud"... then WGRZ is screwed! Andy P already hit the "panic button" tonight... so we'll see what the models think over the next day or so.
ok, you dont "watch this channel" but you post on the blog for this channel?!! Wow! ok, makes a lot of sense! Goodbye!
BTW anonymous, Don is not hyping this storm up at all compared to the other two stations!
anonymous about the web sites: what r u talking about? please explain...
Chris,
How dare u watch the other 2 stations? Where is your loyalty
haha very funny... I have 3 tv's all on at the same time jkjk lol! I have my way's!
Hey Don,
When can I cut my lawn?
Don, I love how you call our next storm, "that baby!" thats too funny... thats when you know we've been through this many times this winter. One storm after another!
The Weather channel has the "heavy snow icon" for both Fri and Sat now!
Don, I can only guess how tired you must be. One storm after another, and their not easy calls eather. Im sure you cant wait til Friday after the 11pm news, so you can go home and rest for the weekend. I dont want to jinx it, but it doesnt look as though we will have any more big storms to keep an eye on for the next few days or so... you as well as all of WNY need a break from this stuff. Spring will be here before we know it, but with spring comes severe T'storms... love those! Keep up the good work! There's a reason why everyone watches YOU to get the weather : )
After having examined every available model this evening, only the NAM and our Super Microcast give us a warmer scenario in which any significant mixing could occur. But even in those models, there is a clearcut change back to accumulating snow sometime during Saturday. The Navy NOGAPS takes the storm far enough to the east so that we would receive all snow, but it would be light. The European, UKMET and Canadian GEM have similar projected paths and intensities which would bring mainly snow or all snow, with the potential for heavy snow.
However, the actual band of heavier snow to the NW of the upper level (700 mb low) will still be-as is usually the case--relatively narrow. Tonight's newest guidance favors that band being close to or over us during Saturday, with falling temperatures and increasing winds during the day. As all of you should know by now, on a Wednesday night there is automatically uncertainty on the placement of a relatively small feature this far in advance. The storm's path could still nudge more to the N & W as per the NAM and Super Microcast (that's PRECISELY what happened with our December Sunday storm) or get nudged more to the east, in which case snowfall amounts would be light with the entrainment/absorption of drier air from the ridge of high pressure to our north and west.
Bottom line: Now leaning toward more snow, less or no mix, with a POSSIBILITY of heavier amts. Anything more detailed than that this far out is not good science. Period. It might work out, but it is still not good science.
Sounds like to me your cautiously optomistic about this being a WHOPPER.
It goes without say that we're talking winter storm watch which will likely become a warning down the road. This next storm is not of advisory conditions. It looks (as of now) to be quite a bit more than that. As Don has said above, we're looking at a mainly snow event here.
This next storm has a good chance of being a "whopper." Whether or not that happens... who knows right now. Some main conditions neeed to come together for this to be our big one for the winter as Andy from channel 2 puts it.
The chance is there. No doubt about that. And I would have to say that our chance looks to be somewhat good as of right now.
Not many snow storm chances left this winter though... spring will be here before you know it.
Don--
You sounded flustered tonight on the 11pm news. I know... anothe rstorm on the way ugghhh! (actualy Im excited!)
I know when I sound flustered, and that's not the case this time around. My job is to project what we know and what we don't know. That's what I did. When you do this for a living, you generally know immediately afterward whether or not you effectively communicated what you wanted to get across. No sinking feeling for me tonight, not yet.
And, as I just posted moments ago, we had a similar scenario in December. The storm verified for Buffalo with 12.3" and 18" in Lockport, but it was a bust for the srn tier. The storm looked like a near sure thing for all 8 counties on Friday night, but the outlying (models which are "out there" from the other models) NAM had the storm further N & W (after having it too far east just the day before, on Friday), and the later NAM verified-which is why the srn tier got so little snow and more mixed precip & rain.
Don,when will the NWS issue the watch/warning? Noon tomorrow? Thanks!
eeed,
I have no idea. They certainly wouldn't begin with a Warning tomorrow. It would begin as a Watch. Warnings are never issued this far in advance.
Ha I like that "Dud potential". Well one way or another it's way to early for real spring here so what ever Mother Nature dishes out this weekend I will take with a smile. After all its the weekend and I can kick back but the woodstove. Don, how did things go at the meet and greet thing for the museum today?
Hey Don...UNCLE!
sounds like we'll be reaching our average snowfall totals and maybe go slightly above with this snowfall!
I hope this is the last truely wintery event. One more for the ski slopes...and I hope it doesnt miss 'em this time! After this I'm ordering spring weather...
Don, thank you for responding to my question forcasting. i was always under the impression YOU DID all the work and your staff assisted. Very interesting. Thanks again for the response you re are a class act !!!!! Tom D.
Morning model runs showing anything new or different?....thanks
AccuWeather seems to have less snow potential for us, around the order of 3-6 inches....they say southeastern Ontario could get hit with 12-24 inches...they also call for sleet and freezing rain mixing in on Staturday morning, which would probably hold down accumulations....Don, do you concur with this, or does your data show you something different...I guess with the area of 12-24 being so close, a slight change in the storm track could bring us consideably more...thanks
perhaps in the future we will be able to plot a cone storm track for NE storms like they do with hurricanes...All of the models solutions could be plotted with the greatest probability of track in the center of the cone...
They seem to always be so accurate.
anyways, just a thought...
Don ? How do you do it?...you wrack your brain trying to give the most accurate forcast, then take time to respond to this blog!!!!!! amazing.........
ACCUWEATHER needs to change their name to INACCUWEATHER...they are rarely correct..they are almost as bad as The Weather Channel.
Accuweather could say that I'm a middle aged white man living in a suburb of Buffalo, and I'd have a hard time believing them. Same with those computer-generated forecasts on the Weather Channel.
Poking around other wx sights and saw that theres indications that the NAO will be turning negative for the remainder of the month??? How true is that?
Ugh! Not good news for the Springfairy!!!
Does Chief Wild Eagle of the Hakawi indian tribe on F Troop know a spring dance?
just curious...
Love the idea of a storm track map idea similar to the hurricane track forecasts
WINTER STORM WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BUT WE WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE A LOOK AT
ONE MORE RUN OF MODELS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
Looks like our Canidian friends in Ontario will see the brunt of this next snow storm.
Don--
Any update on the potential snow storm?
Sorry--got a later start today due to other commitments--will post after I do some work....
The storms keep on coming this winter with the next Major system
Threatening to give heavy snow on Saturday.. Especially over eastern
Ontario.
A broad area of snow will develop on Friday over the regions ahead of
another Texas low estimated to track up the eastern seaboard on
Saturday. There is the potential that this storm will intensify into
one of the biggest snow makers of the winter for eastern Ontario.
Once the track of the low is determined winter storm watches or
warnings will likely be issued.
im at school right now so i cant post a lot ... P.s : i have study hall this period.
but judging what i see on the 12z model run of nam and gfs which are a lot colder than yesterday run{they only bring mix precip to as far as the southerntier} back on topic a major snowstorm will be impacting the region espessially buffalo and niagara area where anywhere from a foot of snow to two feet could fall with blizzard likely{based on 12z gfs run} it absolutely crushes Wny
More To Follow Later When I Go Home.......
haha Ayuud... you are so funny! I love the "more on this when I get home."
What's this about work? I thought you were a meteorologist! Ok, just kidding, gonna go look for some of those Canidians Eric referred to! Seriously tho, I have actually worn out a shovel this winter; an old plastic thingy that is about half as big as it was in November. Enough already, bring on the severe stuff!
Ok... 2 min ito the noon news on both channel 2 and channel 7, the big story is the upcoming storm. I thought this storm looked bad yesterday... well watching 2 and 7describe what we could see... it looks like our snowstorm of the season is on its way to WNY!
BTW: You should see all the watches/ warnings issued already for this storm. (not yet for us though.)
Chesley says "I hope you have a plow guy hired to do your drive way, because it looks as though we will be getting a lot of snow!"
Don, how much snow are we talkin' here??
Odd how folks keep coming on here with other stations' forecasts...did any of you watch Mike, who's been forecasting in WNY since 1983? If you did, you'd know there are still substantial questions on p-type (based on our Super Microcast)for a portion of this storm's passage to our east.
Some of you are cherry-picking, hearing what you want to hear, and ignoring what you don't.
I'm going with more wintry mix than snow....same old same old for this season....
Okay--here's what I've got at midday.
After examining ALL the models (incl NAM,GFS,NOGAPS,UKMET,GEM,EUROPEAN & seeing the graphical portion of our Super Microcast at noon), the odds for a heavy snowfall remain fairly high. The GFS would keep us all snow, and its accum would be quite substantial. The NAM & Super Microcast bring warmer air aloft into the storm's circulation tom'w night and early Saturday, with Microcast being the warmer of those 2; NOGAPS still keeps the storm far enough east snow it would be all snow, but ligher snow; the European keeps us all snow, and the Canadian GEM keeps us mainly snow, but brings a mix perilously close.
Using a model blend/ensemble approach, I have to introduce the possibility of a change to a wintry mix tom'w night into Saturday, but then a change back to significant, likely heavy, snow on Saturday into the evening.
That's not terribly different than what I posted late last night. But again, I remind you on Thursday prior to the December Sunday storm, the NAM was out to lunch, taking the storm harmless out to sea, and within 36 hours it brought the storm furthest N & W (warmest)as an outlying model, and came closest to verifying in the end.
Bottom line: Dud potential is WAY down. Heavy snow potential is up, but mixing could still hold accumulations down substantially from their maximum potential.
Ayuud--again, I think you're really a nice young man, and I get a kick out of your enthusiasm. But if I see nonsensical words like "crush" or overblown jazz about "blizzard" (even though that's not impossible), I'm going to hit the delete button. Let's have a little more maturity, okay?
Botto
and the NAO?
thanks!
AWESOME! Here we go... lets get in out snow storm of the season before spring gets here!!
So we can pretty much expect a WINTER STORM WATCH any time now... which will likely become a WINTER STORM WARNING sometime tomorrow.
Think Im kidding?... Check the NWS chat.