Weekend Update/March 15-16.
A slow start to the weekend, with low clouds and possible fog around Saturday AM, slowly thinning and giving way to Limited Sun for the afternoon. It won't be as mild as on Friday, but it won't be a bad afternoon at all, either. Later Saturday night, colder air will filter in, and it will get cold enough for a possible Lk Ontario response in the form of light lake effect snow shwrs on a northerly flow. For Sunday, we may still have a few lt snow shwrs around, mainly AM. If you're headed to the big Parade, dress for midwinter cold. It won't actually BE that cold, but 3 hours of exposure to a 12-22mph breeze (with some sun to help out) can be pretty wearing. Parade temps will be 32-35. Monday looks to be crisp and pleasant with abundant sun and temps edging back up to the upper 30s. We should reach the mid 40s on Tuesday, with a few lt shwrs possible, mainly later. Shwrs will increase Tuesday night. Wednesday will be Rainy & with temps reaching the upper 40s, we'll have to watch for possible ice jam problems developing. There may even be a bit of lightning. By Thursday, this storm system will pull off to the NE. There are preliminary signs we will see a changeover to Snow & Snow Shwrs by Thursday, along with Cold, Gusty winds. However, there is some model "dissension" on this scenario. It does look like below normal temps will be returning, however, regardless of snow--from Thursday into next weekend.
posted by Don Paul at
10:31 PM
36 Comments:
So no real signs of spring like weather coming our way... yet no true artic blast with snow either.
Im not one for this "in-between" weather.
No, the signs of spring in last night's GFS in late March are not really there in today's runs--which is why I said I'd want to see that trend in several more runs before I'd jump on it. Still, we should be somewhat warmer late in the Month (which you could just as easily predict based on climatology.
Hey Don,just an idea for the BWEC,how about a Hall of Fame for our local meteorologists who have served us through the years.We could have nominees and vote before the Center is open, and dedicate a room to them. By the way, you are a shoo in for that award.
looks like spring is around the corner based on today's Gfs run
MB or whoever is reading this...
Can you offer an explanation on what happened with the Atlanta tornado, and why there apparently was no warning given about it until it actually touched down?
It seems incredible that a basketball game could be going on in the Georgia Dome when a tornado hits it...you'd think *some* sort of warning could've been given.
I read that the NWS issued a warning for the cx area 10 minutes before touchdown. The storm developed very fast. Tornado detection and prediction is very difficult.
here's a link to Dr. Jeff Master's analysis of the Atlanta storm, complete with link to the doppler loop at the time.
~remove spaces to post url..had to break it up in order to fit it.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Je
ffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=917
&tstamp=200803#commenttop
Anonymous, can you imagine what might have happened in the Georgia Dome if they had announced "Better hunker down folks, there's a tornado coming". I'm not sure what the setup there is; i.e. if they had to evacuate is there a safer place to go?
nws said on their forecast discussion that there is a possibility Of an ominous wind event During tueasday Don........ Any Comments On That
Anon: Winds may be strong on Thursday behind the cold front....
peeking at the 18z gfs run ... it shows a possible major Snowstorm around the 29th And The gfs has being this for awile...... Don or Mb .. Any comments On This Storm
Last anonymous: There's no such thing as a prediction of a major snowstorm on the 29th when it's only the 15th. I would think anyone on this blog would know by now that model predictions that far out are essentially worthless.
There was a Severe Tstorm Warning up when the storm hit Atlanta. There's nothing incredible about a missed tornado, if that was indeed the case.
Sunday A.M. update: Light snow and flurries this morning will continue for awhile with skies slowly clearing into the afternoon and evening...Minor or no accumulation likely. For parade goers this afternoon, there will be a chilly breeze in downtown with temps in the low to mid 30s.
ok i am definitely done with snow now. bring on the warmer weather and shorts!!! :) man and to think there is STILL snow around, but about 20" or so of it has melted. good thing, too. hopefully today temps slightly above freezing and some sun will melt more. it's time it got out of here!! :)
wow can't believe i said that
MB....on your weather this morn, you mentioned strong winds possible on Wed. Just strong or possibly damaging? Any idea yet or too early to tell? TYIA
Mary Beth-
For this upcoming week--does it look like we will have any interesting weather heading our way? If so, can you explain what we could expect for this upcoming week... any big storms have their eye on us... any heavy rains that could bring flooding... high winds?!
Thanks MB!
DW: As of now, I'm going with strong winds...not damaging ones. Models today are not as impressive with respect to any potentially damaging winds criteria.
Eric:
Warmer air heading our way early in the week with some overrunning moisture from a warm front getting here on Tuesday in the form of rain. Rain could turn heavy late Tuesday into Wednesday, possibly enough to cause flooding. This will be followed by strong winds and colder air wrapping around behind a cold front Wednesday night and Thursday with a chance of snow showers.
There are some interesting weather trends showing up in the models for late in the holiday weekend. Storm lifting out of the plains could affect us later on Easter Sunday and on Monday (Dyngus Day). Still a long way off, and not enough information to divulge at this time. Storm systems evolve, slow down, speed up, change path, etc., over the course of a 7 day period, so too difficult to pinpoint anything at this time.
mb
is the storm on easter going to be a snow or rain event?
Great parade weather today! I was facing south, talking to my friends and watching the parade. My black leather jacket absorbed so much radiation I thought I was in Miami!!!
MB--In terms of rainfall late Tuesday into Wednesday for WNY---impressive amounts..like an inch or more?
In Southern Ontario, EC seems to confine most of the heavy rain to Southwestern Ontario rather than
Toronto and SouthCentral Ontario where flurries could get into the mix.
tx
Snowblaster: First of all, there are no conclusive signs of this potential storm for later in the holiday weekend. Right now, there are signs that it could push in late Easter night into Monday. It may be snow, but it also may hinge on border line of a wintry mix. Again, nothing set in stone, so I do not want to set the alarm on it.
Barrie1: Rain may fall over an extended period, from Tuesday morning through part of Wednesday. The intensity will likely pick up late Tuesday. Combined with a melting snowpack (NWS stays we still have about an inch of water in our existing snowpack) there may very well be some flooding concerns.
WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO OUR REGION. THERE ARE MODELS DIFFERENCES AT
THIS TIME ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW BUT ALL ARE CONSISTENT WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT QPF IN THE FORM OF HVY RAIN. WE ARE
CONCERNED AT THIS TIME FOR POSSIBLE FLOOD PROBLEMS IN AREAS THAT
STILL HAVE ENOUGH SNOW PACK. EVEN THOUGH THE DEPTH HAS SHRUNK THERE
IS STILL OVER AN INCH AND A HALF OF WATER LOCKED UP IN IT ACROSS THE BUFFALO
AREA AND NO DOUBT MORE IN THE HEADWATERS OF MOST AREA CREEKS. THE
SNOW PACK WILL BE RIPE WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S AND 50S ON
WEDNESDAY. I GUESS IT IS GOOD TIMING FOR FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK. TOO
EARLY FOR FLOOD WATCHES BUT I WILL PUT THE POTENTIAL BACK IN THE HWO.
Dont be suprised to see a flood watch posted for all of WNY this week.
Wednesday looks to be the day with the heaviest rainfall amounts.
Streems, and especially creeks/ rivers take a longer time to react to all the fallen rain, so flood stage would be delayed somewhat.
Creeks and rivers also take a much longer time to fall below flood stage.
If you live in a flood-prone area, now is the time to get ready for the possible flood conditions.
Channel 2 seems to really be alerting people on the possible/ likely flooding for later this coming week in their weather cast. But, I go with what 4 says! Richard is right... now is the time to get ready... it cant hurt!
MB-
How much rain do the models show us getting Tue night thru Wed?
I guess thats the big question!
Whatever that amount is that the models show, we can add another 1.5 inches to that for the existing snow pack on the ground.
You would have to think that the ground is still all frozen! Where would all this water go if it cant soak in? I suppose this could mean some trouble for us WNY'ers later this week with reguards to flooding.
Flooding is a real concern with the next storm system coming into town Tuesday-Wednesday. The WeatherWatch 4 team has been advertising this for several days now. I'll have an update on projected rainfall totals tonight at 10 and 11pm.
Thanks Mary Beth!!
Im sure we'll all be watching you as always : )
I'll def be watching MB...she's cute! :-)
I think it could be time for a thread on the flood threat!
Doesnt look like much rain for the Niagara Frontier at all. Looks like the most rain will be in ski country, in the SW most courner of WNY.
Im saying this due to what I saw on news 4 @ 10pm... "projected rainfall amts."
However... I wouldnt really pay to much attention to the "projected rainfall amts" due to the fact that NF was forecasted at .17 of an inch, and Jamestown was forecasted at 1.36" of rain... huge difference of amts between a small land distance.
MB, is this gonna be one of those "south of the city will get much more rain, and it will be heavier there" types of an event?
Should someone like myself who saw your projected rainfall amounts, and who lives in Amherst be worried at all... it didnt show much rain for the Niagara Frontier at all... Im kinda suprised!
Sounds like another "tale of two cities" event.
Buffalo northward will see little in the way of rain, and south of the city will get a good amount of rain to likely cause some flooding.
Regarding the projected rainfall totals, the data only takes us out to early Wednesday morning. It does not account for the rest of the precip that may fall into Wednesday PM. The totals I showed at 10pm are an estimate from our Super Microcast model. While the heaviest totals were shown to occur in the southern tier, I wouldn't count the rest of us out. You also have to take into consideration the melting snowpack. There's still over an inch worth of liquid contained in the snow that's on the ground. The melting snowpack would help to aggravate any potential flooding situation especially if temps soar into the low 50s ... higher temps equal more rapid melting.
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