Windy Storm System
An increasing southerly wind will develop Monday night into early Tuesday, ahead of an intensifying are of low pressure going by to our north, and its trailing cold front. While conditions will be far from ideal for widespread svr tstorms Tuesday AM, some low topped convection could mix strong low level jet winds down to the surface ahead of the front, with strong mixing and sfc winds possible with the front and likely behind the front.
A now lengthier-appearing period of SW (from 240 degrees) boundary lyr winds is likely behind the front (earlier models had winds quickly veering southerly to westerly (270) may allow gusts to exceed 45 mph with and behind the front--and a few gusts to over 50 can't be ruled out.
A now lengthier-appearing period of SW (from 240 degrees) boundary lyr winds is likely behind the front (earlier models had winds quickly veering southerly to westerly (270) may allow gusts to exceed 45 mph with and behind the front--and a few gusts to over 50 can't be ruled out.
posted by Don Paul at
11:41 AM
35 Comments:
Thanks for the update Don. Is this sort of the same scenario we had for that terrible wind storm back on Jan. 30? It seems to sound quite similar. About 6oF with temps dropping rapidly with the passage of a cold front. Any idea as to how long the strong/high winds will last?
Doesn't look as potent. Strong/high winds could run up to 12 hours, including prefrontal activity.
More wind...argh. Calgon, take me away!
Just to clarify--as of early this afternoon, it doesn't look like these winds will meet actual High Wind (NWS definition) criteria, so Strong is the operative term for now.
Hey guys.Don or MB, dose the nws contal the weatherbug or who dose???Also i heard you say a while ago that you dont dont oporate the weather bug but why dose it say wivb on the top.Also what do you think is a better weather source the weather bug or the weather channel desktop and i know you are the #1 lol.One last thing is the weather channel the nws forcasts or is it some thing different???THANKS.-Adam from Hamburg
Hi Don
Light rain in our area. Rainfall warnings to our north(Muskoka--for thos who are familiar) with up to 50mm/2 inches possible.
EC has us at a high of 11 cel/52 Farh for Tuesday sliding to -11 cel/12F by the overnight hours into early Wed. Quite a plunge. Wind gusts to near 50 mph, but not enough for warning criteria.
Curious what models are showing for the first few weeks in April. I know it is long distance but is it possible to gauge?
get your kites ready!
Adam,
The NWS doesn't "control" the WeatherBug, but it is the NWS zone forecast for your county which appears on WeatherBug.
I do consider it a superior forecast to the "Weather on the Eights" forecast seen on The Weather Channel, but I don't know what forecasts are seen on their website, as I don't use it. "Weather on the Eights" used to be the NWS zone forecast; now it's a man/computer mix, with--in my judgment--a little too much computer and not enough human.
Thanks Don also how come you guys have much more accurate forcasts then wgrz and wkbw also in my opinion the nws???Do you guys have speacil modles that other channels dont have or is it your experiance and your "meteorolorgy talent"???-Adam from Hamburg
Don, On your 5 PM forecast, you said "a few rumbles of thunder possible" (for tomorrow). So the chance of t-storms has been reduced then? So we mainly will be dealing with strong winds from about noon til early evening and plain rain early if I understand correctly.
Until this blog was born I never even looked at the NWS site, but find the text forecasts very interesting. A lot of abbreviations, but the glossary helps with that.
dw
If by tstorms, you mean severe tstorms, we were never expecting any widespread threat of severe weather.
There is still the chance of some marginally damaging gusts in a few spots, with or without tstorms.
barrie1; almost forgot about you. There are no signs of a true Spring breakout over the next 7-10 days. Down at our latitude, we'll have a few hours of lower 60s, but then temps are going to be running somewhat below normal most days thru the weekend.
I am happy for this little break in the weather. The first lambs were born here and I didn't have to worry about them freezing. I still feel like Spring is here its not snowing and blowing!
Radar seems to show the rain to the west is fizzling out. Is it supposed to regenerate or is this falling apart for good? Sure is windy enough already. Hope it doesn't get too much worse, but seems it will this afternoon and evening according to the forecast.
Already a 35 MPH gust clocked at the Roy-Hart station. Of course that is most likely a bit protected being in town. I am in a wide open rural area, so winds are always stronger right here.
Hold on to your hats folks !!
Some gusts may meet or slightly exceed 50mph during the afternoon, with strongest winds in Erie & Niag Cos.
Wind gusts to 100-k in Windsor area mid-morning. Wind warning has since been dropped. I see there is one posted for Niagara-area.
Very windy in south-central ski country with major melting. Don't think we'll see a warning, but is howling outside. A ton oh rain last night, with some lightning and thunder tossed in for good measure!
As an aside--Go Sabres! fingers crossed.
Hey Don and MB, we now know it to be fact, with the upcoming planet X flyby in the near future. To the best of your knowledge, when would you anticipate the polar shift to begin? Experts are predicting a 3100 mile shift, best case scenario would be the continents to travel at no more than 4mph to give us all a fighting chance to avoid the rising seas.. The shift window is said to be from July of 2009 to February of 2012.. All are in agreement that although it's possible but unlikely, a complete reversal of the poles would end all life on earth. Yes including cockroaches.. What say ye Don and MB? When do you think the pole shift will occur?
I expect all that to happen right after all the singers on American Idol sing in tune and turn out to be Julliard graduates, plunging the show into chaos.
Either that, or when some big fat guy does a belly flop off Tierra del Fuego....
Duly noted.. Now the question. Are you going to guarantee that there will be no planet X flyby within the next 5 years? All the infra red telescopes see something in a highly tilted orbit that is going to pass by us and loop around our sun at approximately
6AU.. Is your offical stance that this is not going to happen? After all Don, it's weather related.. They are calling for 625 mph wind and ozone so high that all who are unprepared perish.. If you say it's not going to happen, and you give us your offical Don Paul guarantee.. I'll feel alot better!!
Wow really Jacco...Don Paul...please say it aint so...
I also heard American Idol ratings were slipping so maybe it is true....geez
I don't know, Jocco....I'm not sure how you'd prepare for 625 mph winds. Take in the lawn furniture, roll up the awnings, and wear lots of Aqua Net??
...and gain lots of weight beforehand!!
That's the reason I've put on a few this past year....PLANET x!!!!!!!
0k guys your scaring the crap out of me please stop:::;{{{{{{{-Adam from Hamburg.IMMMMMMM SOOOOOO SCARRRRDDDDDD SSSSSSSSSSSTTTTTTTTTOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP
don it seems as if you are contributing to this rude behavior, this blog is going down
Oh stop it annonymous, he's just having fun.. You want him and MB on here yelling EVERY day?
i dont see how making fun of a tv show and talking about a fat guy is funny..this blog is going down in viewership for sure
you probably wont see my comments anyways cause if you say anythign bad against don he delets your comments, i poster a comment earlier that i thougfht he was rude and he took it down you will see this blog will go away in a few months
I doubt it will go away, "anonymous." If you check the number of comments, it's demonstrably one of the most popular blogs in WNY.
You're feigning being offended is ludicrous. But I guess that's why you're anonymous.
We do occasionally have some fun on this blog. In a strange way, you've made it even more fun.
oh so it would have more credibility if I used a handle...lol
No, I guess it wouldn't. Good point. Your serious take on silliness is ludicrous, with or without a board name.
don
do you think the shovels are done for the year?
snoblaster,
Probably, but not definitely. It's not unusual to have snow well into April in the Great Lakes.
Aqua Net! HAHAHAHA! I guess that means the guys from Dokken, Poison, and Warrant will survive.
I thought grunge killed them off years ago.
Keith Richards, of course, will survive anything. If he has to, he'll take shelter behind Mick's lips.
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